How A.I. Traders Will Dominate Hedge Fund Industry | Marshall Chang | TEDxBeaconStreetSalon
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ก.ย. 2024
- We've seen fully automated bot beats us in Go, one-on-one Poker and Dota II, now what's going to happen for trading financial markets? Listen to A.I. Capital Management sharing their research, a Deep Learning trading agent that over-performs us in trading FX markets. Marshall has been trading FX markets for 5 years. As a Master in Finance graduate from Brandeis International Business school, he combines his insight in financial markets with a passion for machine learning and expertise in programming, striving to build the first game-changing A.I. trading system to disrupt the markets.
He has a strong passion for quantitative trading and machine learning and started AI Capital Management in September 2016. His inspiration came from Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo project, which is a Deep Learning agent that beats human Go world champions. Go, as a game with complexity at a number more than the atom in the universe, is arguably as hard as or even harder than trading financial markets, which they believe is the next game to be solved with Artificial Intelligence. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at www.ted.com/tedx
Exciting times for semiconductor stocks TSMC, AMD and NVDA. which are all experiencing a surge in value. It's interesting to watch the competition develop, given these stocks are major contributors to Al chip growth. On the increase of my personal holdings, I've witnessed amazing impact on my shares.
Intel and AMD will definitely have their share of the market. TSMC is at max capacity and investing in other semiconductor companies will be an absolute power move, Different chips are good at different things and Nvidia has been very specialised, which leaves other aspects of Al open.
This is the type of in-depth detail on the semiconductor market that investors need, also the right moment to focus on the rewarding AI manifesto.
certainly, i had bought NVDA shares at $300, $475 cheap b4 the 10 for 1 split and with huge interest I keep adding, i’m currently doings the same for PLTR, POET and AMD constructively. Best possible way to get ahead, is participating behind top experienced performers.
I agree, i own three business, right now I'm compiling and picking stocks that l'd love to hold on to for a few years before retirement, do you think these stocks would do better over the years? My goal is to have at least $2 million saved for retirement.
Amazingly, people are starting to get the uniqueness of Palantir.
There are few men who are expert in trading i count Mr Francis as one because of his unique trading strategy
yes ...but did he take into account transactional costs.
obviously, do you think people who's smart enough to build an AI trading bot are not aware of such obvious parameters.
@@HowToFitness never assume my friend....assumption is the mother of all you know whats.
@@runthomas I don't assume, I know it as a fact, I'm an engineer and I do this myself.
@@HowToFitness no you are assuming...i am a software developer, developing products that sell to market...and nothing better for a sales promotion than blasting out your most fantastic figures....eg..the trades on simulation made xyz...and its not exactly lying, the fact you didnt include transactional costs...doesnt affect the fact that you bought for x and sold for y.
so unless you have the source code...its an assumption...you may be an engineer, but most certainly NOT A SOFTWARE ENGINEER..AS WE ASSUME NOTHING.
Yeah, now BOTS rule the markets.
*Market is very random*
SMH... technical analysis. Good luck with that.
What?
@@kennethsinger561 What?
@@ihtfp004 I don't understand your cynical reaction...
@@kennethsinger561 Trading in a vacuum doesn't work.
There is no AI system that can profitably trade the market without incorporating TA features.
The problem is here the A.I. is competing against the human traders and their algorithms that trades on risks and expectations. It is as same as putting pro trader against amateur. I want to know what will happen when the A.I. start competing against each other. Will the market stay in equilibrium all the time considering they are equally aware of the same information?
I don't understand your definition of equilibrium. Isn't trading market a zero-sum game already?
there will always be people with more information... :D
Kind of answered your own question. Aslong as there is human evolvement they wont be equilibrium in the markets.
@@TheNgentertainment Depends on the amount allocated to the Ai vs that overseen by direct human involvement/decision making
@@netrunner2922 What Jack is saying ..wont supply vs demand will be same and as a result...no price fluctuation will happen. To answer Jack question...No two AI will be same as each are fed with different set of rules. Of course ...if two company uses same AI...both will have same results against other 98. Think this way....One AI will see half glass full, where as other AI might see half glass empty. Some AI will see 1 year of chart and say this is good time to turn trending algo where as on 30 mins chart...other AI will say ...this is good for range trading. Hope that helps. Variables you are feeding determines what AI output will be.
Who’s watching this in 2023?
2024 xD
2024
24
Renaissance has been doing it 3 decades now
Crazy Huh, And they keep saying History class is useless Hahahahha
@@JonesDTaylor So has DE Shaw.
Thats why buffet is richest and not Simons lol
@@Finance527Power of compounding
can I do a TED TALK ? yo i wanna do a ted talk about benefits of memes
Lull
Love the takeaway message! When AI is developed we should shift our focus to defining the problems instead of trying to compete to solve the problem.
I've done the math enough to know, he is the Terminator.
Quote from Schism by Tool?
There is no way AI will beat the markets because the markets is pure zero sum game.
In trading same as in life, only the result will speak for itself.
This guy sounds like AI
JB Smoov 🤣 facts
And So the plot thickens
He has a strong accent and its mandarin
Damn underrated comment
What if AI teaches itself hacking, lying, data manipulation & news control? The market will be irrelevant at this point.
My best video in you tube
The Terminator does not rule over people. Skynet does.
The secret is not the trading, it is the marketing of the software that will make you real $
true , selling the software and signals is big shady business. unfortunately , bad name for industry.
@@axecapital1 what kind of software are we talking about
What do you mean by software, or do you mean algorithm...
@@JstJaybeingJay i mean 100% of any signals , software that trade , Algo , nothing works I am 100% sure . There is no room for discussion . Some idea works for a while than fail , it’s quite easy to understand why . But I am not here to explain basics of it . Only thing that works , is to be market maker (get paid from exchange ) , or sell dreams (FX courses , signals ) , or collect fees (be a broker )
@@axecapital1 AI trading is not what you are thinking man. They don't work on any kind of technical indicators or signals.
scam are coming here.
in the end, if your vision is coming to be reality, human vs AI will evolve to AI vs AI, then one super AI vs nothing, bcos it will beat all others....and then the markets/funds stop to exits...for a trade someone need to be taking the other side, and there wont be anyone or anything left to rationally do that.
in effect the super AI will kell the market, and thus self destruct itself, with no market its use is over.
That would take over a hundred years, no?
You don’t really get trading. There are different players in the market for different reasons. They aren’t all directly competing with each other in the same competitive space. There’s HFT, stat arb, swing traders, technicians, fundamentals traders, etc. They’re all scraping crumbs off bigger institutional players and money managers and mom and pops who are making longer term investments.
@@ThomasFoolery8 Yeah...
@@ThomasFoolery8 Plus there are liquidity players who need money out of the markets to meet obligations. Insurance companies park money in the financial markets and sell some of their positions to pay out claims.
@@kennethsinger561 That AI. Beat the starcraft 2 PRO players... Why it did beat them? Because Humans can only learn at a same pace, while AI can learn at 1000000x faster pace than humans can. If you say its gonna take hundred years for AI to do that, I think its gonna take much less time than that. Think about it. An AI can run algorithms 10000x per day, while human trader can do 2-3 trades per day? see the difference?
Most of time the profits in forex trading would been eaten up by spreads/fees
A. I. is still under shareholders ownership...Own those companys / A.I and you leverage A.I. work to for you.
The problem with AI trading is that it requires data, and exchanges such as the Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange charge a ton of money for data.
If companies were allowed to list on Ethereum, this wouldn't be an issue, but the government made it illegal to operate on any exchange other than SEC-approved exchanges.
Just another example of a smart man not understanding markets. There have been people making algorithms or holy grails since the start of time, this man will end up like they all did - broke.
Ever heard of Renaissance Technologies??
That final quote!💯
Wasn’t very informative at all
Simple, make them train on demo and then give them some small balances
I want to report the video! It short but even then it's a waste of time....anybody searching ai and trading is not looking for just basics to converse
We should assume other scenarios than fighting off terminators because fighting terminators would be another topic
Systems work too well in the favour of a few more than the many now in the communications age we live in. People will find new ideas to shake the systems that be and work them to our favour.
Never under-estimate the power of people... we can change the systems that shape the world and bend and forge new ideas to our favour.
A.I in the markets WILL force a financial system shake up, and with more and more speculators entering the market in droves, a new era of trade may be apon us.
(just my opinion)
Agree with you.
This is why Tickeron started our mission to make A.I. accessible to every day traders. We simply realized that with the exponential advancement of A.I. it would inevitably beat us in trading short term in the same way that it beats us in Chess.
What about companies like Renaissance Capital, 2Sigma and DE Shaw? Certainly these companies employ some variant of AI that they use in their trading/Money Management. The truth is that if you found an AI strategy that worked for you in the Financial Markets, you would not come out and announce it. Rather this is you comparative advantage and therefore you'd like to keep it a secret
Excellent response. I do agree to you. I think it all depends on variability of information we feed into it. Same like a Filter option in Excel sheet choose or filter whatever you feel like. Can someone connect me to Marshall Chang I have designed my own statistical models that predict/ forecast really well but for few external factors that we can add on a projection or forecast trend such as (apart from mere basic projections from SMA Simple Moving Average, 3months moving average, time series forecasting, regression testing, etc) but even my projections which I designed statistical model do not have all factors such as some might project based on number of days in a months vs some other person might compare this April to previous years April and make forecast projections. So could you please guide me as to how we could reduce forecasted error.
To answer to few who think that no 2 persons analysis would be same vs some saying what if 2 people have same factors considered in the projections. I have something to add to both of these analysis. Third type is reaching upto that level before we decide the third option. Let us first reach to that when 2 people projections and analysis will bring us to exact same solution or answer.
For any type of smart peoples synergies in this industry let us all unite and collaborate and atleast take our advantage before the world knows about it in next 10 years. Let us first make millions or billions $ with using this techniques to trade.
The problem is that the hedge fund industry is already a failure without the assistance of robots. Mediocre annual returns, risks and draw down out of control during tightening of monetary policies.
It's not really an industry...
Matheus Dal
And what is this “mediocre annual return?”
Excellent response. I do agree to you. I think it all depends on variability of information we feed into it. Same like a Filter option in Excel sheet choose or filter whatever you feel like. Can someone connect me to Marshall Chang I have designed my own statistical models that predict/ forecast really well but for few external factors that we can add on a projection or forecast trend such as (apart from mere basic projections from SMA Simple Moving Average, 3months moving average, time series forecasting, regression testing, etc) but even my projections which I designed statistical model do not have all factors such as some might project based on number of days in a months vs some other person might compare this April to previous years April and make forecast projections. So could you please guide me as to how we could reduce forecasted error.
To answer to few who think that no 2 persons analysis would be same vs some saying what if 2 people have same factors considered in the projections. I have something to add to both of these analysis. Third type is reaching upto that level before we decide the third option. Let us first reach to that when 2 people projections and analysis will bring us to exact same solution or answer.
For any type of smart peoples synergies in this industry let us all unite and collaborate and atleast take our advantage before the world knows about it in next 10 years. Let us first make millions or billions $ with using this techniques to trade.
Tedx if you add English subtitles it is more helpful
Interesting. Good talk, I'm surprised more people weren't in the crowd
I believe there will be some good ai funds, some good human funds, a lot of bad ai funds and a lot of bad human funds.
institutions will migrate to AI investing
a over 500% annual return in forex would make you a legend.
So this is the Algo's that people talk about... fascinating stuff.
its 0 sum game at the end of the day,, if one AI wins the another one will lose for sure
He sounds like a robot
OK, you do a presentation...in Mandarin.
Maximize objective
Deep learn
Economics. Politics
Why does he always lick his lip after saying one word?
The comment I was looking forward
excitement and anxiety (speaking in front of large crowds) have your salivar glands underperform. so simply put: the stress of the situation gives him a dry mouth. also he has created a habit over time. also look at his posture, hair cut, overall body shape and the field he's working in: he is compensating.
Lizard man 🐸
I think that AI trading and human traders can coexist peacefully without hurting each other feelings.
In 20 years, software engineers will replace most human stock traders, and as the tech gets cheaper, more people with less experience will be able to make a living on the stock market.
Can this not cause the whole thing to collapes
50% drawdown! LOL! Obviously, AI wouldn't conquer the market.
Silly Ai
and then there is Renaissance whose been conquering the market all along with this technology
In hft, you need to be right 51%. It’s simple statistics.
@French Fry hehe no. high frequency is (well, look it up) millions of transactions - it is quantitive - meaning a small percentage profit X millions of transactions -- which 51% is only needed -- meaning profit more than loss. you spout profit ratio when 51 49% is the ratio ... i realized you must be joking as no one s that dense. lol funny. you got me! (but there are some real idiots on youtube)
@@johnmadsen37 .. What he is saying is correct, profit to loss ratio is seperate to your winning percentage and you need to know both. The 51% win ratio your citing is only profitable when profit to loss ratio is 1:1. So you win and lose the same amount each time you trade. If you win 4 times what you lose when you win, or a profit to loss ratio of 4:1 then your winning percentage only needs to be 25% to be profitable.
06:50, because the chart pattern hasn't occurred yet, the face is basically the same every time... Just a bad comparison imo
Maybe, but his point still stands- that trading is basically just pattern recognition and AI is better at doing that than the best human beings (or will be in the very near future).
this is the difference between inference and prediction
Ai capital management
3.5 trillion managed by hedge funds
Powerful learning ai
SKYNET is already watching this Video & Reading all your Comments. Its Learning you all!!!
Hamilton and Benjamin??
F3nom Eleven yup
@@MikeLoveThyself yeah..lmk if you want more info
What is it?
Hahaha, I hope they be on the market as soon as possible it's gone be so funny :P
Let bot control are economic system such a great idea!!!
What?
Alpha Bond i agree, i trust a robot more than a human, a robot can keep its promise.
@@jeffreyrodriguez1913 lmao humans control robots
Until AI develops a better Sharp Ratio, humans have nothing to fear. Not many will want to invest in a program that has 50%+ draw downs.
what is a "draw down"?
@@kevalan1042 The amount of losses you can have in your system. A 50% draw down means your system can lose as much as 50 percent of the account before it starts making profits.
@@Mlogan11 I see -- thanks!
Some big companies like 2Sigma already developed AI that can achieve 2.0 Sharpe ratio.
2.0?
Code for this model?
will be difficult to get a profitable AI for stocks trading, since it can't learn from papertrading, because its missing out the HFTs which donly start to react when you enter. But forex seems doable
What do you mean by HFTS, how can it work in forex...
most people forgot this "
Quantum mechanics
In physics, the observer effect is the theory that simply observing a situation or phenomenon inevitably changes that phenomenon. ex ante vs ex post
Elaborate?
do elaborate, put some perspective on this thought.
He's bullshitting. You can't take the observer effect (which is a purely physical process at the sub-/atomic level) and apply that to macroscopic things.
@@SgtRevan you can if your entering the market has an effect on the outcome, especially in more illiquid markets.
@@AJ-kv1po Very true. But I wouldn't be going around calling that quantum mechanics :D
There is a huge dilemma I would like to bring up when it comes to "AI taking over trading in financial markets". Lets imagine this AI works well, now imagine how many people will try and get a hold of these. Imagine a stock being traded with only AI placing buy and sell orders, what will happen? Will the AI predict what humans would have done or what AI does? Will they cause all stocks to get "perfect prices"? How will they then make a profit, when all traders are made of almost equal AI's?
Whoever has better model !
you know what the AI are looking for and game them. hunt the hunters
Ais fooling other ais, that happened already in 2012. just search for another tedex vid about ai trading. also look on the charts how messed they are.
What is your thoughts on numeraire crypto currency
Algorithm
Wouldn't be hard to make a robot out of this guy. Everything from facial feature to physique..would be an easy copy.
Excellent
Muito bom. Vale a pena assistir!
*5:50**, **6:06*
Hybrids systems are far superior to 100% A.I driven systems.
Castorp Z. Could you pls elaborate on hybrid system? Thx
Bwahahaha you're being dismantled by crayon eating apes in 2021....f HF. The game is over
Its going to be an arms race to have the biggest and best chips and robo traders, humans making trades will lose and be evolved out of existence. But how will machines compete? whence will arbitrage come ?
human don't change because we are not making mistakes, we are being oppressed then why should we changed. but Oppressor shall meet their match sooner or later because human have divinity that evolution do not have
A.I in stock markets, that is the most idiotic idea. In the stock market history, whenever some funds use any kind of revolutionary software, ended up causing harm to investors. Look, if A.I is used by hedge funds, more and more investors will use it and compete it each other, so the A.I will have to be updated to keep offering higher returns than the market. It is precisely that time in which there will be opportunuties for any investor who does not use these softwares...these "tech idiots" dont learn how the stock markets work. You can use A.I. in operations, marketing, enginerring, design, etc, but you can not use it in stock markets. The first thing that these "tech idiots" should do is to understand how the stock market works...
BTC for $75K by end of this year& Control
of The Currency is already Decentralised And now the China disruption would simply
Decentralise the Mining setup for the better
This makes perfect dollars and cents!
The thing here is the whole game changes when the capital deployed is raised to 100dollar to million then the real problem will start and ai is not a best technology when u really know how the market works in nut shell
Trading is so easy
Don't curse your luck kid
AI is dominating MY account!
John Foltz you trade with an expert advisor?
lol. you had the same idea John.
@@lifewithplugfx8769 yes I do.
DisEngage all those people, who are building AI.
All Big Tech Giants, Google Apple Facebook Alphabet Tesla
Artificial Intelligence will handle all our major problems in the future, or.., it may just be the last invention made by mankind. In today's fast-changing business environment "hyperautomation" is the combination of automation tools to deliver work. Also, knowledge workers don't feel threatened by automation: they have embrace the robots as team-mates. This is what Morozov calls "solutionism" - the idea that any problem can be solved by machines with a computer code. AI, oh well… Getting into the emotional root will be crucial, but the fate of mankind will not get a single real benefit from it! We will become like the drunk who searches for his lost keys where the streetlight shines, rather than where he actually lost them.
of course we will dominate.
AI in trading should be banned, it's cheating and unfair for investors making it a big tech market not all people's market.
As if life is fair. Grow up!
@@netrunner2922 shut up, it's like human footballers playing against robots, or robots solving exam questions for students. It doesn't serve.
Is it really that unfair?
yes, because manipulating the market is fair... you should shut up
This not any game bro.. it's people's hard earned money and they are going to do any single thing to make a big profit.
Love how he skipped ofer how much he made on a million trades 😅
I wonder how will AI deal at the time of crisis. Will it hold untill the company is no more or will it take the loss early
That's the issue for ai imo is going to have a problem find info what is wrong with the company and how big of an issue it is.
It’s math! It does calculate risk-reward ratio and opt for decision
What you are talking about is basically Fundamental Analysis. In this video he is talking about Technical Analysis, AI won't care if company will survive tomorrow or not, all it care about the price movement that is happening right now. Machine Learning Algorithms are considered really good at understanding non-linear patterns and daily market movement is nothing just a non-linear pattern.
You won't trade a stock that is not going to be there tomorrow then why would you start your trading bot to trade that stock.
If Al is so good, why let it trade just $100, let it trade all the money you can move!
Where to buy. Where to sell
100-> 374. Almost 1000
Marshall Chang
Coexisting
Define the problem
Detroit Become Human
No more wall Street's human trader jobs in the future for sure.. .. Just make sure we didn't accidentally create AI owners/masters!! !
one day a software patch to fix error in AI traders of index funds will crash the market and wipe out trillions.
if we use AI social security fund can never run out
Brokers are screwed. But thats good for the overall market.
Brokers are generally salespeople.... I think you mean analyst... In reality, anaylyst, traders and portfolio managers need to just adjust...since when is technology advancement new? Its fhe same as it always has been, those who don't adapt are screwed
@@timothyplatt3300 Go ahead and try adapting to AI doing a better job that you would ever do. By adapt you mean change career right?
@@Wakkks lol... Yea you want me to get into a debate with you huh... You'd like that huh???
Humans creating their own demise
hmmmmm trading is not easy, neither for an AI
His lip smacks are annoying af
mind your drawdown, man! 700 usd loss is a lot, against your gains
Isn't the algo already considered the machine
great presentation, youre a fine speaker. thanks.
Where can I find Marshall Chang
I'm using the only AI software I know of that actually works.
Whats that?
?
Art Fisher Your brain?
He's talking s***
Thats why buffet is richest and not simons
Respectfully, this take is not very informed if you do not factor time into it. Between Buffet and Simmons portfolio, time is of great importance
Simons fund averages well above 50% annually and Buffet 22% thereabout. Buffet started investing when he was 10, Jim founded Renissance at 50.
Both are great investors, and started investing/managing money at different times. Buffet’s portfolio grew way more after he turned 60; compounding magic. If Simmons started say even 20 years earlier, his portfolio would have definitely been bigger, but what does that matter, both men are great investors.
But I n the game of investing, we must not leave out time and opportunity. Cheers.
Just take the first beginner AI and flip the chart
I believe in AI
Numeraire
Someone give that poor guy a tictac
Excellent response. I do agree to you. I think it all depends on variability of information we feed into it. Same like a Filter option in Excel sheet choose or filter whatever you feel like. Can someone connect me to Marshall Chang I have designed my own statistical models that predict/ forecast really well but for few external factors that we can add on a projection or forecast trend such as (apart from mere basic projections from SMA Simple Moving Average, 3months moving average, time series forecasting, regression testing, etc) but even my projections which I designed statistical model do not have all factors such as some might project based on number of days in a months vs some other person might compare this April to previous years April and make forecast projections. So could you please guide me as to how we could reduce forecasted error.
To answer to few who think that no 2 persons analysis would be same vs some saying what if 2 people have same factors considered in the projections. I have something to add to both of these analysis. Third type is reaching upto that level before we decide the third option. Let us first reach to that when 2 people projections and analysis will bring us to exact same solution or answer.
For any type of smart peoples synergies in this industry let us all unite and collaborate and atleast take our advantage before the world knows about it in next 10 years. Let us first make millions or billions $ with using this techniques to trade.
great stuff. what's your email?
So gorgeous 😍