Lisa Su: "So if you look at now, to enable AI infrastructure - of course, it starts in the cloud but it goes into the enterprise. We believe we will see plenty of AI throughout the embedded markets and into personal computing. We are now expecting that the datacenter accelerator TAM will grow more than 70 percent annually over the next four years to over $400 billion in 2027. So does that sound exciting to us as an industry? I have to say for someone like me who has been in the industry for a while, this pace of innovation is faster than anything I have ever seen before.” A TAM of $400Billion in 2027 - or 70% growth - even if AMD does not increase it's market share in the data center, it will boost both top line and bottom jine for the next 5 years.
Thanks for the AMD earnings update, great perspective. Not one of my biggest chip stocks holdings but definitely want to add when the opportunity arises.
I think that AMD AI on a laptop chip sounds awesome and they are slightly downplaying their profits forecast. I’m still buying AMD and an AMD laptop 😂 this year ❤ NVDA, TSM, etc.
Thanks! I believe in the coming days apple is going to make a rise in its stock price considering the new product launch - vision pro and better earnings. Also Nvidia would continue to grow and hold 90% market share as no rival for its dominance in AI power.
I think you're being too pessimistic on AMDs data center business and opportunities. Sure its unlikely to take more market share than Nvidia BUT one year ago Q4 '22 Nvidia's entire datacenter revenue was $3.6B - in Q4 '23 it was up to $14.5B. AMD has only just started selling competitive AI chips in December - I think it can easily take 20% market share (and Id guess more). 20% of lets say conservatively $60B per annum is $12B for MI300 alone. Yes there is ramp up this year but I also think it will grow rapidly if each chip is being sold for $20K and going forward in 2025 I think it looks good.
We're not pessimistic, just trying to be realistic. We own shares of AMD. Some of the 2025 and beyond market sizing predictions are counting chickens, not before they're hatched, but before the eggs have even been laid. Let's take this new market from year to year. And for 2024, AMD is making great progress. As we stated, we want to make sure they're going about this sustainably.
@@chipstockinvestor yeah Im just trying to say its a whole different ball game when you can sell a chip for $20K when previously you could only charge $2K (and that 10x is being conservative). Yes there are additional manufacturing costs (and technically this is multiple chips like their cpus) but that cost is far outweighed compared to the increased price. A.I is the growth story for AMD not the rest IMO but I find it incredibly interesting hearing a different angle and I thank you guys for excellent insight.
I like Su. She’s brought life back to AMD. But at current multiples, the downside risk is too large. Revenues would have to 6x to justify current multiples. .
Hey guys, thanks for the video, I've watched it three times but the valuation part is still unclear. I guess my knowledge of the technicalities is too basic to be sure that I correctly understood the message. From what I understood, the price at the time of the video was 160 and according to you, it was too expensive. is that right? If you could add simpler terms to the message(i.e. "our current estimated fair price is $XXX", or "under the current conditions, the price that would be attractive to us is $XXX"), it'd be very very helpful.
Hello Raul, do you need some help on how to calculate PE ratios? We don't do price targets here. We are long term investors. Here's an article that might help you understand how those calculations in the valuation section work: www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp
Think you all are missing the boat on some of your assessments. AMD is a an entirely different company since Lisa took over stock was under single digits share . AMDs AI play is just getting started they will have 30-50 of the market with in 2 years. They had some supply constraints and vetting the NVDIA was able to buy their way out of at TSMC.
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ROCM is not supposed to compete with CUDA, but ROCM will have world class API implementation to allow hyperscalers to leverage every bit of the goodness of MI300X. And it's gonna be OpenAI/Azure, Meta, Oracle, AWS who beat nvidia's proprietary CUDA ecosystem. it's not a matter of if, it's just a matter of WHEN. mark my word.
Comparing Nvidia and AMD - Both are currently competing with AI - but AI will stabilize and reach a stead state in the shorter term while AMD has that reservoir of profit and sales called INTEL, which is a whoopass promised and in the making since Intel forced the first Athlon board to be delivered in a unmarked Brown Box by a scared Asus 25 years ago.
Hey, thanks mucho for the video. Could you do a video on Super Micro Computer (SMCI)? This company partners with Nvidia and seems instrumental in building AI data centers. Thanks for considering SMCI !! I know you are not fans of this business, but like it or not, the stock is a big part of the microchip world!! 🌎 Thanks! 🙏🏻
AMD could rise, sure could... NVDA has ⬆️ since i invested 400k in 2021. Will it continue Yes. Will it split Yes. That's what people should look for. Once it splits will skyrocket again. Over 370% profit since 2021 with NVDA.
I think AMD is a great company, but at the same time it is one of the most expensive on the market. I should bill and earn 5 times more now to be worth that… Thanks!
We agree! The premium seems a bit high. Surprise surprise its the AI hype running it up. But perhaps Lisa Su and co. have some tricks up their sleeve for 2024.
@@3markawthat’s the part I don’t like about AMD is that they issued so many shares already. I think it’s a great company but I like Nvidia’s way of managing their buybacks and issuance of shares more than AMD
AMD and Nvidia are in a massive bubble right now, and I think it's worse for AMD, as people invested in them in case they could catch up with Nvidia. And the opposite is happening right now. AMD is doing better than Intel on the CPU side, which is a small market, but it's also at risk of losing the 2nd place on the GPU side, which is where the big money is (for now at least...).
"could" like maybe might or may? no conviction by anyone on amd. It hasn't done much in 2024 with almost 6 months gone. Nvidia the king. amd the king of pump and dump.
AMD is the most overvalued tech stock there is. Just pull some numbers and see that it's P/E ratio is at 341 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Compare to AAPL at 30.37 or even NVDA at 83.15! still can it go higher- sure. but at this point it is pure and simple PUMP. and we all know what follows the pump. Good luck and green days to all.
Your youtube channel is addictive...You two make a great job, it's a pleasure to follow you.
When skill meets passion, great things happen.
You guys and Ticker Symbol You are under the radar winners on YT.
Thanks Ronnie!
I second that. Very useful insights.
solid content, pounding the tablet! 20%, yeah nah, more like 200x% coming, not a time 2b sitin on the side lines, i’m buying!
Lisa Su: "So if you look at now, to enable AI infrastructure - of course, it starts in the cloud but it goes into the enterprise. We believe we will see plenty of AI throughout the embedded markets and into personal computing. We are now expecting that the datacenter accelerator TAM will grow more than 70 percent annually over the next four years to over $400 billion in 2027. So does that sound exciting to us as an industry? I have to say for someone like me who has been in the industry for a while, this pace of innovation is faster than anything I have ever seen before.”
A TAM of $400Billion in 2027 - or 70% growth - even if AMD does not increase it's market share in the data center, it will boost both top line and bottom jine for the next 5 years.
Thanks for the AMD earnings update, great perspective. Not one of my biggest chip stocks holdings but definitely want to add when the opportunity arises.
I think that AMD AI on a laptop chip sounds awesome and they are slightly downplaying their profits forecast. I’m still buying AMD and an AMD laptop 😂 this year ❤ NVDA, TSM, etc.
We're curious to see one of these new laptops in the wild!
I really like AMD, and was thinking about buying some later this month, but SMCI being added to the S&P 500 kinda changed my plans for now.
Great video! Im keeping my AMD stock and will add a bit more with time if they dip much more without fundamentally bad news!
First time to watch your channel. So impressed. Great analysis.
Thanks! I believe in the coming days apple is going to make a rise in its stock price considering the new product launch - vision pro and better earnings. Also Nvidia would continue to grow and hold 90% market share as no rival for its dominance in AI power.
I think you're being too pessimistic on AMDs data center business and opportunities. Sure its unlikely to take more market share than Nvidia BUT one year ago Q4 '22 Nvidia's entire datacenter revenue was $3.6B - in Q4 '23 it was up to $14.5B. AMD has only just started selling competitive AI chips in December - I think it can easily take 20% market share (and Id guess more). 20% of lets say conservatively $60B per annum is $12B for MI300 alone. Yes there is ramp up this year but I also think it will grow rapidly if each chip is being sold for $20K and going forward in 2025 I think it looks good.
We're not pessimistic, just trying to be realistic. We own shares of AMD. Some of the 2025 and beyond market sizing predictions are counting chickens, not before they're hatched, but before the eggs have even been laid. Let's take this new market from year to year. And for 2024, AMD is making great progress. As we stated, we want to make sure they're going about this sustainably.
@@chipstockinvestor yeah Im just trying to say its a whole different ball game when you can sell a chip for $20K when previously you could only charge $2K (and that 10x is being conservative). Yes there are additional manufacturing costs (and technically this is multiple chips like their cpus) but that cost is far outweighed compared to the increased price. A.I is the growth story for AMD not the rest IMO but I find it incredibly interesting hearing a different angle and I thank you guys for excellent insight.
Amd will show the power in next 5 years.
Any views on NVTS ?
Thanks so much. Great insight
great job, thanks for all your dedication and hard work!!!
Thank you Charles!
I like Su. She’s brought life back to AMD. But at current multiples, the downside risk is too large. Revenues would have to 6x to justify current multiples. .
you guys are the best, thank you
Thanks Brian!
I love this channel 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
What, would you say, is amds durable moat?
Was that bass guitar there before? If yes then I think I really don't put attention to the background, just the great content.
Lol we rearranged the studio, and now the bass is back!
Hey guys, thanks for the video, I've watched it three times but the valuation part is still unclear. I guess my knowledge of the technicalities is too basic to be sure that I correctly understood the message. From what I understood, the price at the time of the video was 160 and according to you, it was too expensive. is that right? If you could add simpler terms to the message(i.e. "our current estimated fair price is $XXX", or "under the current conditions, the price that would be attractive to us is $XXX"), it'd be very very helpful.
Hello Raul, do you need some help on how to calculate PE ratios? We don't do price targets here. We are long term investors. Here's an article that might help you understand how those calculations in the valuation section work: www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-earningsratio.asp
Great content, Thank you you very much :) only thing forgive me but I listened on 1.5x speed 😅
We forgive you! You can watch on any speed you like! Thank you!
Great video
Thanks!
Have an Eye on Carl Zeiss Jena, supplier of ASML , on off the fee interesting german stocks
Is Nvidia still opportunity?
short term: hold - but if you have a 5 year time scale, then yes. It will 3x. But it will be a roller coaster ride.
better hope they deliver.... wow
Think you all are missing the boat on some of your assessments. AMD is a an entirely different company since Lisa took over stock was under single digits share . AMDs AI play is just getting started they will have 30-50 of the market with in 2 years. They had some supply constraints and vetting the NVDIA was able to buy their way out of at TSMC.
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Join at TH-cam: th-cam.com/channels/3aD-gfmHV_MhMmcwyIu1wA.htmljoin
Join on Ko-Fi: ko-fi.com/chipstockinvestor/tiers
Buy your Cybersecurity Investing 2024 Manual here: ko-fi.com/s/0a436c7c8e
Or join the channel via YT or Ko-Fi to have this manual and more, along with a Discord community for just $5 a month!
ROCM is not supposed to compete with CUDA, but ROCM will have world class API implementation to allow hyperscalers to leverage every bit of the goodness of MI300X. And it's gonna be OpenAI/Azure, Meta, Oracle, AWS who beat nvidia's proprietary CUDA ecosystem. it's not a matter of if, it's just a matter of WHEN. mark my word.
I am chewing on it. 🌱
Comparing Nvidia and AMD - Both are currently competing with AI - but AI will stabilize and reach a stead state in the shorter term while AMD has that reservoir of profit and sales called INTEL, which is a whoopass promised and in the making since Intel forced the first Athlon board to be delivered in a unmarked Brown Box by a scared Asus 25 years ago.
I have a stop loss on my AMD. We'll see if it reaches it. Fingers crossed.
If their m300 chip cuts into invida sales then Amd profit margin rises
Thanks you
You're welcome!
“De-worsified”, what a great term.
🤣
AMD doesn’t seem to remain above $165 for any length of time. The smallest correction and it comes crashing down back to $145. What gives?
Hey, thanks mucho for the video. Could you do a video on Super Micro Computer (SMCI)?
This company partners with Nvidia and seems instrumental in building AI data centers.
Thanks for considering SMCI !!
I know you are not fans of this business, but like it or not, the stock is a big part of the microchip world!! 🌎
Thanks! 🙏🏻
They have been saying AMD is gonna break out for 10 years now.
Waiting!
Isn’t it overbought?
Could be! We're not adding at this time
@@chipstockinvestor could be? Lol it’s either yes or no
AMD could rise, sure could... NVDA has ⬆️ since i invested 400k in 2021. Will it continue Yes. Will it split Yes. That's what people should look for. Once it splits will skyrocket again. Over 370% profit since 2021 with NVDA.
AMD is the next big thing in AI
Infographics please or at least some GRAPHICAL material to all the talk+talk!!!
I think AMD is a great company, but at the same time it is one of the most expensive on the market. I should bill and earn 5 times more now to be worth that… Thanks!
We agree! The premium seems a bit high. Surprise surprise its the AI hype running it up. But perhaps Lisa Su and co. have some tricks up their sleeve for 2024.
Part of the supposed high price is all the shares issued to buy Xylinx
@@3markawthat’s the part I don’t like about AMD is that they issued so many shares already. I think it’s a great company but I like Nvidia’s way of managing their buybacks and issuance of shares more than AMD
AMD , EPS is less than 1, have you noticed that?
aged like milk
NEEEERRDS! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Yeeeessss!
@@chipstockinvestor 😁😁
AMD and Nvidia are in a massive bubble right now, and I think it's worse for AMD, as people invested in them in case they could catch up with Nvidia. And the opposite is happening right now. AMD is doing better than Intel on the CPU side, which is a small market, but it's also at risk of losing the 2nd place on the GPU side, which is where the big money is (for now at least...).
America maybe dammed
Qorvo good Earnings, Qualcomm an AMD in my Opinion disappointing
Sounds like you're basing this solely on the stock price post earnings...
Qualcomm a lame Duck, SMCI a Rocket ! AMD is Number 2, so I buy Nvidia,
"could" like maybe might or may? no conviction by anyone on amd. It hasn't done much in 2024 with almost 6 months gone. Nvidia the king. amd the king of pump and dump.
AMD is the most overvalued tech stock there is. Just pull some numbers and see that it's P/E ratio is at 341 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Compare to AAPL at 30.37 or even NVDA at 83.15! still can it go higher- sure. but at this point it is pure and simple PUMP. and we all know what follows the pump. Good luck and green days to all.
That P/E ratio is because of Xilinx adquisition. The real one is around 40
Nothing but pumpers, don’t even understand what AMD produces. Sound like parrots.
🤣
$smci $anet $eqix $apld $tsm
CHWRF China Tower