very valuable video! I am noob and have a question. You said sell 30 delta bear call spread when vix under 23, but vix low means market is going up, right? if you sell bear call spread, how do you catch the upside and make money from that?
yes VIX low means market went up. With selling options you want to be contrarian. Sell puts when market is down, sell calls when market is up...especially in bear market
Ryan, you are awesome. Please keep us posted. Im trying to retire in a few years with 500k wheeling options, and i need to learn how to control the fear of a bear/crash market.
I'm new to options trading and just wondering if you may have experience with this in the past : when VIX is high, do you find there is greater possibility of getting excersised before option expiry date, if strike price reached, due to greater fear and uncertainty in the market? Thanks
Ya lots of investors are scared of crashes, rightfully so. But in the end, every crash has recovered. I think SPY will be slightly higher then were it is now.
The US treasury "prints" dollars yes...you are correct. But the Federal Reserve CREATES money by lending money to the US government and banks which is also referred to as "printing money".
Great video, but it is still not that easy to look and ffr and tell that bear market is coming. Great example would be 2020 or flash crash 2010 people who are leveraged too much lose it all on these types of events. Belive me that if we see much higher inflation numbers than anticipated market turns down like crazy even before FED increases rates… we could be 15-20% lower
Bear markets are never easy to predict or prepare for...this is just documentation of what I did and my personal plan for any future bear markets. Also 2020 wasn't a bear market. The crash recovered in 35 days...so this doesn't apply. Crashes are perfect opportunities to load up more. Also never over leverage yourself.
@@OptionsWithRyan hah sorry I sometimes use the comments to remind myself how much of a video I've already watched, often I'm interrupted in the middle and have to resume after work/kids asleep etc, the resume spot function doesn't always work for me so I leave a comment as a bookmark reminder to myself - I forgot that The comment actually goes to the creator and they may reply haha. Well, I'll take this opportunity to let you know that I really appreciate and get an immense value from your videos, much more so than any of the other series on the topics. Have started off recently selling CSPs and CCs as a supplemental (maybe only) income, mostly on MSTR and MSTU recently, also a bit on tsla, pltr, bity which i owned, was an options novice before, am educating myself on options from your videos. Liked/subscribed/notifications and will try to comment for the "ratio". Keep up teh good work and thank you for the time you take in making great educational videos for this. I especially appreciate that you took the time to address how to maintain ones income in a bear market, if one has already a nice chunk of cash thank God and is considering to move to selling options as their source of income, it's important to know exactly how to kepe up your steady income in stagnant and bear markets as well. Anyways... got a lot more of your videos to study through, have a great day! Will try to refrain from my "using comments as my own "notes" section on the video since I know you actually read these :) Best regards from Miami
Sorry but your macro reading is very poor. The fed doesn’t not control money supply. The comparison with 20 years ago need to be done in comparison to your income. Interest rate is income. Boy, this is so bad that I cannot even keep listening. Sorry
You sound extremely uneducated. THE FED CONTROLS THE MONEY SUPPLY. who do you think prints it? you can literally google "does the fed control the money supply?". Comments like these are the reason I educate people.
@ right. I like your videos a lot and I’m sorry for having been over the top. I’d be happy to have a call and discuss every single point with you live in one of your you tube videos. The fed controls interest rate not the money supply. Most of the money supply comes from credits that are not controllable by the fed. The fed is a price setter not a quantity setter. Again, my apologies for my rude comment and if you like to have an open and honest conversation in every single points you made in the video I’d be happy to do so. Cheers.
@@Book-Gnome To answer that question, it requires a seminar. Let’s see if I can make a summary of varies issues related to common themes such as deficit/debt, inflation, money supply, interest rates etc. I won’t go in any detail, just a general overview. As you may know Art. 1 Sec. 8 Clause 1 (General Welfare) of the US Constitution says: ‘The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States”. Congress has the legal Authority to issue the currency and impose taxes. The difference between “spending” and taxation over a fiscal year is called the deficit. Within the sectorial balance identity that is identify with G-T. I prefer to use the term net fiscal transfer because that is what is left into the private sector (domestic and foreign). For example, if G=100 and T=80, the net fiscal transfer is 20. That is our saving. For us (the private sector) to be able to save, the public sector (the treasury+FED) needs to be in deficit. The integral of the deficit over time is the so-called national debt. From our side of the balance sheet, it is the total private sector saving. To put this in concise terms the sectorial balance identity states that: (G-T) = (S-I) + (X-M) where S-I is the domestic private sector net saving X-M is the trade component: eXport - iMport. Note that the equation above MUST be in balance. Since the US is running a trade deficit the term X-M is negative, meaning that it a liquidity drain for the domestic sector (us). That is also the reason why the US$ is the reserve currency. To have that status you need to be willing to be in a trade deficit and supply $ around the world. The G-T term is also called vertical money because it is net transfer (positive) into the economy. Once a bill is approved in Congress (for example to build a new aircraft carrier) the treasury via the FED credits the back account of the contractor to provision the supply of whatever is included in the spending bill. Similarly, if Congress approves a stimulus package for the economy, the treasury via the fed and the banking system marks up the number in your checking account and you get the money. The fed does not control that. The fed simply executes whatever fiscal policy congress decides to implement. Now, let’s go into the private sector. If you go to your bank and ask for a mortgage or a student loan or a loan for a car, if you meet the standard to be creditworthy you get the loan. The FED does not control how many people are going to get a loan for whatever reason. Your loan becomes part of the “money supply”. This operation is also called horizontal money creation because it is a contract between two private entities, and you must pay it back (plus interests), contrary to the vertical money. What is it that the FED controls? Fed Fund Rates (FFR) and Reserves in the banking system. Operationally that is achieved by buying and selling securities. Since Jan 2019 the FED has adopted a so called “ample reserve strategy” because it has realized that it is much easier to set the interest rate (FFR). By admission of Chair Powel himself the FED does not know exactly what the minimum amount of reserve they need to keep in the banking/private sector system, but a good ballpark number is in the order of 1.5-2.0 trillion. The REPO system is also part of the reserve. Now, is managing reserve (via buying/selling) securities inflationary? Absolutely not! We have seen this with QE. Japan has over a quadrillion Yen in the banking system and guess what…zero inflation. Historically high inflation/hyperinflation is driven by a supply chain disruption. Period. The two most glaring examples are the Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe. In the first case the Paris accord of 1919 put such a heavy burden on Germany for the WWI reparation payments, coupled with the Ruhr mines/heavy industry taken by France that even JM Keynes said that we are laying the foundation for WWII. Essentially Germany’s production capacity was decimated. Of course, adding liquidity into a system where the real side of the economy cannot match the purchasing power will lead to inflation. Similar situation with Zimbabwe. After the white elite was removed from power, the local where uncapable of keeping up with crop production. Supply chain disruption, coupled with excess purchasing power, generates inflation. Most recently, C19, the world supply chain, was shut down. We have seen inflation rise everywhere in the world regardless of the level of deficit spending. Once the economy reopened, the supply chain restored, inflation started to come down, even if the federal deficit was still relatively high in historical terms. Also, contrary to popular belief, raising IR to fight inflation is counterproductive because IR is a fiscal transfer in the economy while cutting IR is a fiscal drag. So again, Inflation is a supply side issue and cannot be solved with monetary policies. There are many more nuances and details that it would be important to discuss but I’ll stop here from now. I hope this clarifies a bit. Cheers.
25:44 what were the strikes were you selling on the covered calls. LIke were they on the money, or more importantly what was your delta on the calls.
Such a great video!! Amazingly useful content Thank you
Glad you liked it!
Thanks Ryan for a fantastic video! You've got all the concepts in here: succinct macro with great strategies. Superb!
Glad you enjoyed it!
very valuable video! I am noob and have a question. You said sell 30 delta bear call spread when vix under 23, but vix low means market is going up, right? if you sell bear call spread, how do you catch the upside and make money from that?
yes VIX low means market went up. With selling options you want to be contrarian. Sell puts when market is down, sell calls when market is up...especially in bear market
Thanks Ryan very interesting. That back tester is legit!
I appreciate you! Yes, the Tastytrade back testing tool was such a great addition to the platform!
Ryan, you are awesome. Please keep us posted.
Im trying to retire in a few years with 500k wheeling options, and i need to learn how to control the fear of a bear/crash market.
Great goal Julio! I appreciate your continuous support
Thanks for the info and ideas to deal with a bear market. More please!
will do Connie! I appreciate your support
Hi Ryan! What can you do if you don't have the money for collateral but are strong on a trade and still want to make it?
Don't do it, trust me. Covid wrecked a 6 figure portfolio because I didn't have the collateral. I had to start all over.
Thxs for real , info.. your a credible, options trader ..thx u sir
I appreciate you!
I'm new to options trading and just wondering if you may have experience with this in the past : when VIX is high, do you find there is greater possibility of getting excersised before option expiry date, if strike price reached, due to greater fear and uncertainty in the market? Thanks
yes potentially. There is always exercise risk when in the final week of expiration.
Where and how do you get T bills..
treasury direct
Nice video, everybody is scared of a crash, jaja. What do u think spy will be by the end of the year??
Ya lots of investors are scared of crashes, rightfully so. But in the end, every crash has recovered. I think SPY will be slightly higher then were it is now.
I subscribed to your newsletter, but I never get it. what am I missing?
make sure to check you junk folder. They go out every Mon, Wed, and Friday. Will be sending one in the next few hours.
Me too. I never get it.
Fed doesn't print money, US treasury does.
The US treasury "prints" dollars yes...you are correct. But the Federal Reserve CREATES money by lending money to the US government and banks which is also referred to as "printing money".
they print money thru the stock market. The Fed is the biggest player in the market and they control everything
@@OptionsWithRyan If you put it that way. OK.
Great video, but it is still not that easy to look and ffr and tell that bear market is coming. Great example would be 2020 or flash crash 2010 people who are leveraged too much lose it all on these types of events. Belive me that if we see much higher inflation numbers than anticipated market turns down like crazy even before FED increases rates… we could be 15-20% lower
Bear markets are never easy to predict or prepare for...this is just documentation of what I did and my personal plan for any future bear markets.
Also 2020 wasn't a bear market. The crash recovered in 35 days...so this doesn't apply. Crashes are perfect opportunities to load up more. Also never over leverage yourself.
Also, where will you answer me, right here?
long put 90 days , simultaneously sell cover call and hope not get assigned lol
thats definitely a strategy, thanks for watching!
watched 12/2/24, watched half once, rewatch again as t walked in mdidle, at late, watch 1more time
great!
@@OptionsWithRyan hah sorry I sometimes use the comments to remind myself how much of a video I've already watched, often I'm interrupted in the middle and have to resume after work/kids asleep etc, the resume spot function doesn't always work for me so I leave a comment as a bookmark reminder to myself - I forgot that The comment actually goes to the creator and they may reply haha. Well, I'll take this opportunity to let you know that I really appreciate and get an immense value from your videos, much more so than any of the other series on the topics. Have started off recently selling CSPs and CCs as a supplemental (maybe only) income, mostly on MSTR and MSTU recently, also a bit on tsla, pltr, bity which i owned, was an options novice before, am educating myself on options from your videos. Liked/subscribed/notifications and will try to comment for the "ratio". Keep up teh good work and thank you for the time you take in making great educational videos for this. I especially appreciate that you took the time to address how to maintain ones income in a bear market, if one has already a nice chunk of cash thank God and is considering to move to selling options as their source of income, it's important to know exactly how to kepe up your steady income in stagnant and bear markets as well. Anyways... got a lot more of your videos to study through, have a great day! Will try to refrain from my "using comments as my own "notes" section on the video since I know you actually read these :) Best regards from Miami
I don't let my shares get called away. convince me to do so.
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✅
Glad you liked it Thelma!
Wow!! You are probably the only person in the world who dare to say you can predict the next crash!!
Lol, I can't predict before the Fed makes a decision, but after the decision, its pretty clear which way the market is headed.
@@OptionsWithRyan , so 2025 is a bear market? Many has been saying that since 2022.
@@shutengloke5907he’s probably right
Sorry but your macro reading is very poor. The fed doesn’t not control money supply. The comparison with 20 years ago need to be done in comparison to your income. Interest rate is income. Boy, this is so bad that I cannot even keep listening. Sorry
You sound extremely uneducated. THE FED CONTROLS THE MONEY SUPPLY. who do you think prints it?
you can literally google "does the fed control the money supply?".
Comments like these are the reason I educate people.
@ right. I like your videos a lot and I’m sorry for having been over the top. I’d be happy to have a call and discuss every single point with you live in one of your you tube videos. The fed controls interest rate not the money supply. Most of the money supply comes from credits that are not controllable by the fed. The fed is a price setter not a quantity setter. Again, my apologies for my rude comment and if you like to have an open and honest conversation in every single points you made in the video I’d be happy to do so. Cheers.
@@AugustoLucarelli If the fed doesn't create dollars who does. What are these credits?
@@Book-Gnome To answer that question, it requires a seminar. Let’s see if I can make a summary of varies issues related to common themes such as deficit/debt, inflation, money supply, interest rates etc. I won’t go in any detail, just a general overview.
As you may know Art. 1 Sec. 8 Clause 1 (General Welfare) of the US Constitution says: ‘The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States”. Congress has the legal Authority to issue the currency and impose taxes. The difference between “spending” and taxation over a fiscal year is called the deficit. Within the sectorial balance identity that is identify with G-T. I prefer to use the term net fiscal transfer because that is what is left into the private sector (domestic and foreign). For example, if G=100 and T=80, the net fiscal transfer is 20. That is our saving. For us (the private sector) to be able to save, the public sector (the treasury+FED) needs to be in deficit. The integral of the deficit over time is the so-called national debt. From our side of the balance sheet, it is the total private sector saving. To put this in concise terms the sectorial balance identity states that:
(G-T) = (S-I) + (X-M) where
S-I is the domestic private sector net saving
X-M is the trade component: eXport - iMport.
Note that the equation above MUST be in balance. Since the US is running a trade deficit the term X-M is negative, meaning that it a liquidity drain for the domestic sector (us). That is also the reason why the US$ is the reserve currency. To have that status you need to be willing to be in a trade deficit and supply $ around the world. The G-T term is also called vertical money because it is net transfer (positive) into the economy. Once a bill is approved in Congress (for example to build a new aircraft carrier) the treasury via the FED credits the back account of the contractor to provision the supply of whatever is included in the spending bill. Similarly, if Congress approves a stimulus package for the economy, the treasury via the fed and the banking system marks up the number in your checking account and you get the money. The fed does not control that. The fed simply executes whatever fiscal policy congress decides to implement.
Now, let’s go into the private sector. If you go to your bank and ask for a mortgage or a student loan or a loan for a car, if you meet the standard to be creditworthy you get the loan. The FED does not control how many people are going to get a loan for whatever reason. Your loan becomes part of the “money supply”. This operation is also called horizontal money creation because it is a contract between two private entities, and you must pay it back (plus interests), contrary to the vertical money.
What is it that the FED controls? Fed Fund Rates (FFR) and Reserves in the banking system. Operationally that is achieved by buying and selling securities. Since Jan 2019 the FED has adopted a so called “ample reserve strategy” because it has realized that it is much easier to set the interest rate (FFR). By admission of Chair Powel himself the FED does not know exactly what the minimum amount of reserve they need to keep in the banking/private sector system, but a good ballpark number is in the order of 1.5-2.0 trillion. The REPO system is also part of the reserve.
Now, is managing reserve (via buying/selling) securities inflationary? Absolutely not! We have seen this with QE. Japan has over a quadrillion Yen in the banking system and guess what…zero inflation.
Historically high inflation/hyperinflation is driven by a supply chain disruption. Period. The two most glaring examples are the Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe. In the first case the Paris accord of 1919 put such a heavy burden on Germany for the WWI reparation payments, coupled with the Ruhr mines/heavy industry taken by France that even JM Keynes said that we are laying the foundation for WWII. Essentially Germany’s production capacity was decimated. Of course, adding liquidity into a system where the real side of the economy cannot match the purchasing power will lead to inflation. Similar situation with Zimbabwe. After the white elite was removed from power, the local where uncapable of keeping up with crop production. Supply chain disruption, coupled with excess purchasing power, generates inflation. Most recently, C19, the world supply chain, was shut down. We have seen inflation rise everywhere in the world regardless of the level of deficit spending. Once the economy reopened, the supply chain restored, inflation started to come down, even if the federal deficit was still relatively high in historical terms. Also, contrary to popular belief, raising IR to fight inflation is counterproductive because IR is a fiscal transfer in the economy while cutting IR is a fiscal drag. So again, Inflation is a supply side issue and cannot be solved with monetary policies.
There are many more nuances and details that it would be important to discuss but I’ll stop here from now. I hope this clarifies a bit.
Cheers.
@@Book-Gnome the banks do