MicroStrategy Deep Dive w/ Jeff Walton (BTC175)
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 พ.ค. 2024
- Jeff Walton discusses MicroStrategy's finance strategies, including valuation and leveraging Bitcoin. We examine price actions, trading methods, and the impact of traditional finance on BTC futures, offering insights into the intersection of enterprise software and financial engineering.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:26 - The role of MicroStrategy in modern financial strategies.
00:08:55 - The differences between trading strategies and investment philosophies.
00:15:18 - Insights into leveraging Bitcoin as collateral in finance.
00:20:00 - Game theory principles applied to market structure and investor behavior.
00:26:21 - The potential of enterprise software in financial engineering.
00:32:42 - The dynamics behind the price action of MicroStrategy's stock.
00:51:15 - How Jeff Walton evaluates MicroStrategy's valuation.
00:54:19 - Understanding short squeezes and their impact on valuation.
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"World economics works on two basic components...lending and insurance." "“liquidated everything and went all in on GME”" What a simplistic clown.
"Can't UNBITCOIN a BITCOINER."
Bitcoin quote of the year.
other quote of the year.. “what are walks with your wife like"
What about naseem taleb, he’s an unbitcoined bitcoiner
agreed. an absolute belter.
I put MSTR in my SIPP in UK in May of last year. It has performed incredibly. I will sell it gradually as it is essentially my pension but it is incredible what it has done and hopefully will continue doing 😀 God bless Michael Saylor.
What provider of SIPP allows it? I’m with HL. If you could share, appreciate in advance.
AJ Bell I have also included MSTR in my ISA also with AJ Bell
@@shirinsaidy HL allow it.
any provider that allows investors to hold US shares. i have MSTR in my SIPP too, alongside MSTR in my ISA.
microstrategy shareholder here 💪🏻
Really great conversation. Truly interesting, informative, and revealing. Thank you both.
27:18 MicroStrategy is bank of the future
33:46 MSTR as fixed income
Preston, you need to have Michael on again. Soon.
I know it’s a great episode as soon as you guys started talking!
Outstanding episode ! Thinking out out of the box
Jeff - any chance you might be willing to share copies of these spreadsheets?
Love the setup. Thanks.
Fascinating convo, thanks!!!
Once again, an insightful analysis. Beginners frequently question whether it's too late to enter the financial market, yet the market remains inherently unpredictable. Trading offers more benefits than merely holding, emphasizing the importance of learning before taking the plunge. Engaging in active trades is essential to ride the waves of the market.Thanks to Flora Elkin’s insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings, managed to grow a nest egg of around 127k to a decent 532k. Kudos to the journey ahead!
I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this
It's unexpected to come across her name here. She understands every beginner’s intention and fix you to a trading course that matches your capacity, she knows her stuff! Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey. Definitely worth giving a shot!
It is really refreshing to see a comment about Flora Elkin.I have worked with her also for months now, reached out after reading more about her on the internet. she simplifies matters, whether it's a market surge or drop; her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the trend, She's a guru i'll say
Investing has proven to be an incredibly beneficial decision. My cryptocurrency profits continue to play a substantial role in growing my overall wealth, reducing my reliance on my salary
Nice to see this here, Flora Elkin's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
new to channel and it's a great find - "subscribed"! thanks for the good insight
Don't short MSTR. It's the new widowmaker trade.
LOL you could make just as much money shorting it as you could on a long...Thats BTC!
A great discussion, great topic!!
Favourite word of the day ....."Transmuted"
great episode
"Capture the spread" What does that mean, if you are long, take a profit whenever there is a big premium on the share price vs the treasury value?
That’s my take but idk
I have exactly the same question.
Thank you for this MSTR deep dive. Awesome!
Brilliant.. and we are so damn early.... ❤
Imagine getting GBTC in a Roth at the deep discount a year ago and then switching to MSTR when the ETFs were approved. Damn lucky, but even luckier to find Jeff who taught me how to hodl MSTR. Thank you Jeff!
What does Preston mean when he says capture the spread?
Can anyone point me to the video of where Salyor compares how well btc, gold, sp500, ... hold their value over the long term. I watched it a couple on months ago and now i cannot find it.
Hi. So Jeff does not own Bitcoin directly only through micro strategy? Thanks
I'm holding just over a bitcoins worth of MSTR in my Pension and have no intention of selling any of it before 2028.
Maybe the best podcast……..EVER!!!
great chat
@PrestonPysh at some prior to the DEC '25 expiration, i strongly recommend you sell a call against your 470 call and wrap this trade into a bull call spread.
57:38😂😂😂 Preston was like hold up, hold up
Do you get more BTC “for the bang” by purchasing MSTR?
Preston- Will the owners of ETF's like FBTC have the ability to "lend out" their collateral of bitcoin holdings in the fund? Will it be necessary to have the coin in a cold wallet to be able to capitalize on creating cash flow, or will it be possible with ownership of Fund shares as well?
Fidelity (where I hold MSTR) offered me a Master Agreement last week as you speak of. I've never had an offer like this and my assumption is Fidelity must have dollar for dollar (SPOT) holdings like MSTR to start a new ETF as such. Point is, owning MSTR under Fidelity results in a hidden yield back to myself. Win win.
MSTR does not own dollar for dollar like an ETF, it is leveraged.
What I am asking if ownership of FBTC will allow for lending out collateral like owning BTC directly in a wallet.
@@brettbutler9766 I have/had (sold FBTC due to less % gain in a month than MSTR)....Fidelity only offered A Master Agreement (Loan/Stakinig) only on my MSTR shares.
I love how you talk about wall street gametheory. This should be taught in high school. Do you think MSTR will be included in SPY?
The only question is when, not if, provided BTC continues to go up.
The S&P500 criteria are pretty clear and MSTR already fulfills them, it could just be that the S&P committee resists for a while.
(you need positive earnings in the last quarter and sum of past 4 quarters)
with Tesla, the S&P committee also resisted for a while, despite criteria being fulfilled.
His game theory is something a 5 year old could understand. He like to apply cool sounding terms even when they don't apply. The guy is a fking insurance salesman, no matter how hard he tries to make it sound cooler than it is.
@@blakemaximus2872 Not everything that a 5 year old could understand is wrong ;)
(and of course a 5 year old wouldn't understand but yeah)
MicroStrategy = Macro Strategy
Felt pretty smart when I bought MSTR. But I was just playing checkers. Turns out Saylor was playing grand-master level chess! Just along for the ride! 🚀
Great episode gentlemen - this should put Jeff on the map aka very popular! Love it! 👍👍👍
Yes ☝️
Jeff! Great to see you on here. A friendly nudge to please release another episode of Quant Bros. That show is amazing.
I like the change up. Nice interview and awesome to see a different perspective. It’s a more “normie” outlook. We get stuck in a bubble but not very many think like us.
I recommend the Uncommon Knowledge interview with Brian Armstrong (coinbase), for another look at how normies think (the interview is an old man, I bet you've never seen a crypto interview like it 😅😅)
MSTR is the new DeepFuckingValue
MSTR is the perfect stock to stack along with IBIT.
Where can we find the excel spreadsheet shared in the video?
On Jeff's PC.
Where can we find the excel spreadsheet of your own trade secrets and personal finances? ;)
So @ minutes 7:00 for about the next 30 seconds afterwards, Jeff knows something about insurance?
Help me understand this please… In one of the more extreme scenarios with the 49 multiplier and a BTC price of $125,000, the MSTR stock price is at $63,000. Why would anyone buy a share of MSTR at 63k when they can buy 0.5 BTC instead?
easy a 49x multiple will never be applied to MSTR when its MC is that big. so ignore that example
👍👏👏👏👏
I am forced to invest in index funds in one of my 401ks. Its either that or actively managed high fee mutual funds. No stocks or etf’s. 10 options only. Love it😂
People of MSTR- thinking on the Kerrisdale short - they say there simultaneously long on BTC - so doesntvtyst imply significant leverage on BTC? Otherwise if BTC goes up, you have to assume MSTR simultaneously goes down (seems unlikely based on history 😂)? What leverage would they need or is it wizardry beyong my imagination?
Super impressive guy..
This is so great. I’m so upset at myself for listening to British Hodl, I had a small but significant bag of MSTR and his rants convinced me to sell and go in on the ETFs. I’m not sure BHODL is an actual bitcoiner.
He's got a long history of being a scammer and snake oil salesman
Listen to most Brits about pretty much anything, get wrecked
@@John-wf5if He definitely feels like a snake oil salesman. Because bitcoin is freedom for everyone, it is a magnet for scammers and people like him. Blocked him a few weeks ago :)
He seems pretty bullish BTC not sure why he would convince anyone to sell MSTR
@@sharhful before the ETFs launched he was saying there will be no need for MSTr becuase people will just buy the ETFs
What do you think of the Kerrisdale MSTR short report?
Kerrisdale short is like valuing Apple stock purely on their physical assets. It's short sighted. Kerrisdale is not considering the leverage MSTR has as a company that holds 1% of all BITCOINs. And the fact that no one can catch up to MSTR (because if they try the price of BTC will go up very fast). What does a company that holds 1% of the most valuable asset in the world look like to you in the future? Do you value it purely based on its physical assets?
@@questionyourbeliefs why does MS keep selling his own stock?
@@thegormlesstwit849 I’m on phone can’t find the investor notes shared by Saylor himself but you should try to find it yourself. There a good reason for him selling it. Nothing to do with his faith in MSTR.
To buy more BTC
@@KotoriOnWheels so we investors should do the same
Go to 51 minutes - That is the interesting part about microstrategy when bitcoin hits $125K and $200K
my Roth IRA is faithfully married to MSTR.
Tax-free incentive to hold it, hold it, and HODL it.
Same, the only two things I hold anymore are btc and MSTR
I own a lot of MSTR; but it's going to get "taken to the cleaners" in the next crypto bear market.
@@dlukton At least there's risk. I think it will also recover from the next crypto bear market, but there is still use in diversification as always. If BTC and MSTR (continue to) succeed, you'll be doing more than good enough with a smaller allocation plus diversification.
Why buy mstr when you can just buy the etf?
You might get more bitcoin “by the pound”
No etf fees
What do they mean, how do they capture the spread between MSTRs treasury value and stock price?
Saylor issues more common stock and uses the proceeds to buy more BTC.
I’m just dca’ing into MSTR little by little
I’m super bullish with BTC, and love what Michale is doing. However, how do you think the amount of debt MSTR they have, what if the Free cash flow cannot pay the interests?
The interest is almost nothing, they can pay that off with their software business alone, which generates 400 million $ revenue per year. They can also do other very simple things like issuing more shares or debt.
So, River is only available to Americans?
I don't know the answer for sure, but I think that, at a minimum, the person would have to have a US bank account.
Preston you need to have Michael on again. Soon.
He should keep buying ‘til it hits $1,000,000. Buy like a drunk’n sailor!
😂😂😂 Preston was like, Man just wait a minute 😅
Excellent. Well beyond the usual pump or dump drivel found on TH-cam.
Wow Preston's opening explanation on his two bets. Well done!
Preston keeps mentioning the spread... which i do not understand exactly what is the spread he means? my guess is that MicroStrategy has 17 million shares outstanding. they own 200k bitcoins. 200k x 70k per bitcoin= 14 billion USD, 14billion divided by 17million = 823 dollars per share, while share price today April 9th 2024 is 1500 USD, so the difference between 823 and 1500 is the spread he is talking about right? could anyone help?
Holy F! 😮
15:45
Morgan Stanley will not take my Mstr as colateral for a loan.
I found out they are not idiots and will not risk a loan on bitcoins volatility
No kidding. I think we know who the idiot is at this point in time.
Awesome!!!👏 Thanks
MSTR needs to buy another $2B bitcoin ahead of this next up move.
I think he just did that with this 10% dump lol
There was no reason for it to dump with a stable BTC price.
I got in on MSTR at $1600 per share. It is 25% of my account and I plan to hold it indefinitely.
40:00 -------- bro he asked you about the NAV premium.... you shouldnt talk about acceleration/derivative/etc... the answer is simple: "what has the NAV premia been in prior cycles? 6x? It's at 2.2.x right now. Why can't it expand to 5x?"
Buddy lost me at “liquidated everything and went all in on GME”
I still enjoyed the convo tho, thanks.
Exactly. Proves he's not as smart as he pretends he is.
If you live outside the US and can't access the BTC ETFs, then you just gotta suck up that MSTR premium to get BTC price exposure in your tax advantaged account. MSTR's premium will remain 'irrational' until Asia, Europe and rest of world can invest in respectable BTC ETFs.
Nothing like this has ever been seen before, both the camp that is shorting and the one being shorted are buying underlying bitcoin. If you're in the short camp you're hoping bitcoin goes down and MSTR goes down faster than that so you can make a profit. If it goes the wrong way the MSTR premium rises as they will have do dump BTC as saylor is issuing convertible debt as well as BTC is being sucked by US ETFs and the premium actually goes higher.
Though it's not a given that the premium will be eliminated when everyone has access to respectable BTC ETFs.
There are other reasons for the premium, it's accretive to shareholder value for the ability to issue stock and debt, etc.
Also, it might turn out that fully owning 1% of the BTC supply has some intrinsic value, like using it as collateral, for insurance, lending, etc.
(ETFs don't own the BTC, their owners do. ETFs can't do anything creative with their BTC holdings)
@@simonp6339 well I'm sure within a year you would have options on the ETFs so you can generate income from it or hedge. Because it's an ETF you can use it as collateral itself so not sure I agree.
Come on Saylor...supercharge the convertible debt offerings up and sell more shares and buy the bitcoin. Let's go ! ! 🎉
Jeff saved me from needlessly putting stop losses on MSTR. It is too easy for the pumps to get away from you.
My stop losses get hit then it ends up making an ath
Why is MS selling thousands of shares right before the cycle Bull run is expected to raise?
58:00 Preston WHY are you interrupting him when he’s just about to give the big numbers!???!?
WHY are you saying: ‘Don’t even say the numbers because people will think we’re crazy’
wtf? We’re all psychopaths here wtf??? Why you shut him down FFS!
I just sat through this whole episode for you to shut him down?
He’s just about to give MSTR at 48 multiple and you censor him - you don’t even allow him to pontificate at Samson Mows guess. Why???
100%
MSTR has an advantage that nobody can catch up to, they have so many at such a low cost its allowed them to buy up about 1% of the supply.
Theres less than a handfull of people who could even attempt to match it and they prob couldnt even if they tried, the second someone tried to do it, it will trigger an "arms race" in BTC and the price will rocket.
As think about it, lets just say Apple decided to start stacking BTC and they tried to do it as quietly as possible to not push the price up, lets just say in some magical world, this didnt cause an issue with the already small supply of available BTC.
The second people twig that Apple is joining into BTC, they will realise they now have no option but to join them, and this my friends is the spark that sends the rocket to Uranus............ Buckle up gentlemen.
I'd love to hear Jeff or Preston's view on the risk that the government take down MicroStrategy. Saylor needs to take self custody of the Bitcoin and then holding the company forever would be more attractive. I can see this being a serious risk in 5-10 years if they don't self custody.
Saylor already has full offline self custody of those 205k coins, obviously. They are not storing their coins in a Coinbase pro account, I can assure you. 😂😂
Listen to yourself, bro. Saylor has addressed this himself. If the government takes down Microstrategy they're not going to go rogue and try and do anything illegal. They're a regulated company in the US. They'll do what the government tells them. If the gov takes down Microstrategy that's it, it's over.
The SEC is acutely aware of what MSTR is doing; no doubt the IRS as well. I don't think the government will confiscate anything from MSTR.... unless it's part of a broader strategy to confiscate ALL of the bitcoin they can get their hands on... from whatever source.
It would be interesting to hear the justification for zeroing the retirement accounts of a lot of Americans, and damaging a lot of others, not to mention probably harming a lot of Blackrock investors who hold their BTC ETF, as it would be a shock for BTC.
This risk might exist, but extremely unlikely in my opinion. For the case that it realizes, you can always additionally hold cold storage BTC as a hedge.
Please explain why a 1952 Mickey Mantle card is worth over 1 million dollars in comparison to bitcoin trading for maybe 1 million dollars someday in the future. If you’re basing the fact that because bitcoin will only have 21 million coins than the price should command a higher amount. But the reason the Mantle baseball card is worth more is because of its scarcity with only 1800 cards in existence. Imagine if there were 21 million cards where then would the value be? It would be far less. So in the case of bitcoin, making more of them would counter that argument and so shouldn’t bitcoin be valued less with more of them?
Making money is more popular than baseball, Mickey mantle can’t compete with greed.
While this show aired MSTR went up another 5%
does anyone know Jeffs X name?
That LEAP is now roughly worth 134K
Love how everyone still calls it Twitter 😆
Hallelujah!!!! The daily jesus devotional has been a huge part of my transformation, God is good 🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻was owning a loan of $47,000 to the bank for my son's brain surgery (David), Now I'm no longer in debt after I invested $12,000 and got my payout of m $270,500 every months,God bless Chloe Linda Henderson🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸..
Thanks to my co-worker (Alex) who suggested Ms Chloe Linda Henderson.
Wow that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.
Yeah,253k from Ms Chloe Linda Henderson, looking up to acquire a new House, blessings.
Please can I sign in from Australia ,is it possible?
I have made more than 90 K God bless Chloe Linda Henderson God bless America 🇺🇸
I've realized I'm too stupid for this conversation. I'll just keep working my job and stack sats where I can :D
I wonder what Saylor thinks of Dimons recent comments? 😂😂
This guy is smart money and retail is dumb money
I bought MSTR last year. I have no idea about bitcoin but I'm just hoping it goes up more after the halving.
4 or 5 years ago Preston made some rather large Bitcoin price predictions BUT they never were reached of course. Before you start dreaming or thinking that the predictions mentioned in this vlog will come true the reality is that they probably will not. I would say 100k in the next 3 yrs will be the norm. TH-camrs always get it wrong and are chasing new subscribers and loyalty from their existing subs.
PLEASE SET OUT THE MATHS Set out with actual figures on the screen how MSTR multiple of BTC is justified - justified by their ability to finance fresh BTC for effectively/ possibly next to nothing. Do this for dummies. Do a video "Why MSTR is worth a MULTIPLE of bitcoin" and you will get a large audience. The figures you gave simply ASSUMED but don't JUSTIFY multiples
You might want to check out the other videos that the guest did under his nickname punter Jeff about microstrategy those videos are amazing
@@bstomp Where? Not finding anything on TH-cam. I think you mean the Quant bros channel, which is also mentioned in this video.
For my bro
Someone needs to look up the meaning of “misnomer.” Every sort of error is not a misnomer.
I'm favoured, $60k every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church.
Hello how do you make such weekly??I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦 of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God.
Thanks to my co-worker(Alex) who suggested mrs Elizabeth Ann Graney
She's a licenced broker in the States 🇺🇸
After I raised up to 125k trading with Elizabeth Graney I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery Glory to God shalom.
Wow I'm just shocked you mention Elizabeth Ann. thought I'm the only one trading with her.
Are mstr shares being diluted through share selling by microstrategy or increasing in value of btc per share?
They are being diluted, but the Bitcoin held per share is increasing. So the dilution will not reduce the share price, as long as the Bitcoin price continues to increase.
Yes
Another advantage because of the way that the debt is structured if bitcoin price does pull back they can sit it out without a margin call, in fact it would be able to issue more debt to buy more Bitcoin in a pullback. so you're essentially getting the Bitcoin and the margin at no cost, and essentially risk off unless Bitcoin were to completely crater, and at this point I think the dollar will crash more likely than Bitcoin.
100% this guy is out next 30% drop
Bought in at $340 and it was just a basic investment to have some exposure to bitcoin... I'll trim some off after $2100
Start at 26 min in for MSTR discussion
You da real mvp
Ty kind ser
Ty 🤝
Back to 1000-1200$$ minimum
I have mstr in my portfolio at about 1% of my portfolio and its grown to almost 5%... and cause its up almost 500% and btc is up a bit over 150% in the same period, I think it makes a better btc investment without the hacker's, exchange issues and everything else around a decentralised system .. surreal to say the least
Ely Lily has a PE OF 133. What!
I like the diversity of viewpoints and people that end up on this show. That said, I don't trust what this guest is saying. Kicking things off with the fact that he went all in on GameStop had me very skeptical of his acumen as an investor and in personal finance. I see his posts on Twitter and thought he was more intelligent there. Here, I get serious degen vibes.