This is fascinating, and it's SOOOOO nice to hear two people have an intelligent, reasonable and decent conversation about things that matter. I needed this like I need water.
My son, an MDPhD and currently in his first year residency training to be a Cardiologist, has declared not to have children. If the best, the brightest, and the most hardworking young people don't want to have children, I see a darker future for humanity.
Well, unlike women, he can wait relatively long should he ever change his mind. Also, young people declare things that they change their minds on all the time. My millennial brother was for years adamant he would not have kids, but lo and behold who is expecting to become a dad in the near future. Though my career is plenty meaningful, it pales compared to me raising my kids. Had them mid-late 30ties. Maybe being a doctor is different, but many millennials and Z'ers will change their minds when they hit 35. Though, for some, this is too late.
People still don’t get it. Middle class Americans cannot afford children end of story. Real estate costs are insane, child care costs are insane, cost of food is insane, buying a car has never been more expensive. Never mind the costs of their college education. That leaves us with 3 choices. Choice 1: Don’t have kids Choice 2: Work 60-80 hours per week in either stressful corporate job or multiple blue collar jobs. This lifestyle will burn you the fuck out and you will never see your kids. Choice 3: Cut your consumption/lifestyle back to a middle class family circa 1990. One car household, no iPhones, one family computer, one plane vacation every 5 years, eat out once every month, minimal entertainment. How many people do you know would give up their modern lifestyles to have kids? This is the main reason people aren’t having kids.
Realistically people need to stop working en masse and force a reckoning. Fuck this growth based insanity. I've stopped all economic output unless it's volunteering on a friend's farm or something that my labor directly benefits someone with no money involved. Destroy the dollar.
Im curious how 2020s and 2030s gonna look like if option 3 is getting closer. Seems much better than first 2. Just needs enough middle class to drop from overconsumption to accept this level so your kids or you arent bullied in school and other places. Teachers and kindergarten "nurses" would take this option, smartphones cause enough problems with kids.
Choice 3 won't make much difference when a house costs six figures and it takes young couples decades of austerity to save enough money just for a down payment. In hot real estate markets it's not unusual for a house to make money faster than its owner does.
@@mosquitobight but that's just recently. If the corporations dont completely take over and withhold land from the lower classes , then they will change. You can keep up to 4 kids in one room. You can have girls in one bedroom and boys in another. Infants up to about 3 in your room. You can buy most clothes at thrift stores. You dont need cable. If you have a smartphone you dont need a computer, if you dont a laptop or desktop is fine. If your wife stays home and takes care of her young, then you save enough for another home or land.
China's population is not 1.4 billion. Analysts outside China estimate its true population at closer to 900 million. There are two main reasons that China's population has been exaggerated. First, many Chinese -- especially those who are wealthy, shady or both -- have obtained multiple birth certificates in order to evade taxes, etc. Second, local governments, schools and various other organizations obtain funding based in part on their population. What these two reasons have a common is that they're both a function of corruption.
what a load of crap. No one in China would report they have more kids than they actually have as they will be heavily fined if they have more than 1 kid. And income tax rate in China is very low and the threshold for the tax brackets are high. You're m0r0n and you're projecting the western taxation system & thinking on China. LOL
Nah mate, hat is a over exagerated in the estimation. In the book ''Big Nation, empty nest'' the author have realistic estimations of 1.28 billion but shrinking quickly, they probably peaked around 2010, and now they are plummeting quickly
Probably in the 1.2 billion range. Bu lt they are already on the beginning of decline and it will accelerate rapidly if current trends continue. An analyst friend of mine stated that they are already shrinking by 20,000 people A DAY and that it will go faster and faster. Supposedly pop cut in half by 2100. The social and economic impacts of that are hard to fathom, and it means that China's power window is as wide as it will be for the foreseeable future is the next 5-10 years. Period of maximum danger as they know they will soon begin the decline and if they want Taiwan, etc they need to get it soon.
0:51: 🌍 The global population is projected to stop growing by 2086, due to declining birth rates and increasing longevity. 09:23: 💥 The declining birth rates in Russia and the impact of the war in Ukraine on population growth. 18:21: 💔 The ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine is resulting in a high human cost, with an average of four hours between deaths, leading to a significant population decline in Russia and potential fragmentation of the country. 27:34: 📉 Russia is facing a severe population decline due to low birth rates, emigration, and a struggling economy. 35:34: 🌍 The decline in population in Russia may lead to demographic attrition being weaponized by the United States and its allies. 44:35: 🌍 The declining populations of Russia and China will have significant impacts on their economies and global power. 53:23: 🇨🇳 China's economy is becoming unstable due to demographic change and high youth unemployment. 1:04:11: 📉 China's declining birth rate and aging population is causing a dependency ratio imbalance, threatening the economy. 1:11:21: 🌍 China's challenges include rapid development, outward migration, and potential conflict with Taiwan. 1:20:28: 🌍 The changing population dynamics of countries like India, China, and Russia have significant geopolitical implications. 1:29:13: 🌍 The world has made incredible progress over the past century, but it requires continued investment to maintain and improve our current standards of living. Recap by Tammy AI
1:13:13 I think if you live in a country and you are a perm resident or citizen then identity yourself as the NATION FIRST then ethnic group - “American of Asian/Chinese ethnicity” to promote unity and loyalty we need to get better at this. 👍🏻
7:00 i'm almost 64. My dad and my uncles warned us not to have any kids because what the world was turning into. They said there would be a nuclear exchange within 75 years of Hiroshima. It scared us. Three guys on either side of my family had no kids. We wiped out two family names. Those families were here for a millennia and now they're gone.
The world is going to end, fact. We are going to end, fact. What matters is what we do in the meantime. Having a child is a miracle, but also a statement of confidence that, come all the problems, life will be worth living for those who are willing to participate in this life.
@Gaperina having a child is not a miracle. It is all too easy to do. The world will be suffering from overpopulation for many centuries, unless a catastrophic die-off occurs. When the experts refer to demographic collapse, they are referring to the quantity of people necessary to maintain a modern industrial society. But the sustainable carrying capacity of the planet is far below the current population levels. Far better to have population decline due to people deciding not to have kids than to reduce population via war, famine, ecological collapse, disease, or pestilence
I'm really sick of hosts/guests calling people racists if they don't agree with their open borders philosophies. All the while, misnaming it "immigration" which is essentially the conversation at around 36:00 and 37:00. If people want different immigration laws, change it. But don't break the laws that are on the books. Has nothing to do with race or irrational fears. Geez.
lol, I also find it hilarious that anyone would take the numbers coming out of China seriously. As if the CCP would lose face admitting that they are anything but stellar. You know like the underwater tunnel collapse where only 238 people passed yet if one was to look at the released pics of football fields of cars that were pulled from the tunnel. Estimates put the numbers more around upwards of 10,000.. The floods and a bridge collapsed, People perishing and instead of rushing in there with rescue crews, The priority was to put up barriers everywhere so it could be seen or reported. Buildings and infrastructure crumbling and collapsing regularly, Fire Hydrants that are fake, sinkholes regularly. I for well over a decade have had zero trust for US legacy media and certainly am not going to believe what the CCP puts out with their track record.
Worked with a guy that did clean up in New Orleans after the hurricane. He said the official numbers down there were WAY off as well. He cleaned out attics. Then there were several tornadoes that wiped out whole towns. Yet reported was maybe a dozen lost. It def happens here too.
With you until you mischaracterized everyone upset with too much immigration as race based. Immigration is wonderful up to a point but if a large number come from one particular place the character of the country changes. If a little of something is beneficial that doesnt mean a lot of it is better.
I agree with you. Look at NewI York, and Now they are moving into New Jersey. Places that use to have crime has seen an spike in petty crime. Crime waves tend to start with petty crimes. America is taking in bus loads of people with no plans for them. They are not considering that the voting public find this destabilizing. These migrants feel entitled I am Independent voter. I will vote for anyone who will plug the border hole. I am sick of it
So, come up with a plan to completely transform the U. S. model (based EMNTIRELY on immigration for growth, regardless of its inequities), with no common original culture, so that it doesn't become a failed state in 3 generations.
He's completely right on the psychology of it. Whether people admit to it is another thing. Especially the lying, trumpet coup fash types who aren't really from that land anyway. Many know their white supremacist gramps/forefathers gncded, ethnc clnsed and stole all the loot(the vast resources of a whole continent) and they don't want to give a dime to non white migrants - even though they just got off the boat themselves. Or "pay taxes" from their ill gotten wealth
No You are just a racist. Almost all of America's significant immigration has occurred in waves. Italians. Polish. Japanese. Chinese. Irish. Koreans. Vietnamese. South Americans. The immigrants were almost always looked down upon as inferior. Over time, all have become valued members of American society. BTW, the majority of crimes are perpetrated by Americans, not immigrants.
4 hours is according to one ex-US-Marine, back in February. The Rouble has fallen 66% against the dollar, not 20%. Russia worked with the Nazis to invade Poland. Stalin only fought them at that time because they attacked, they were sending war supplies to Germany the day before. You can't really call the Soviet Union a "guard" against the Nazis, though it was very fortunate for the Allies that they were drawn into the war.
One thing I want to mention - around 56:39 when Brad says China's average life expectancy is 81. Take that with a large grain of salt, considering its from their official statistics and is likely massaged for political reasons. Also, women are not just "allowed" to retire at age 50-55 - they need to retire. Although many still work off the books. The details of the youth unemployment are actually the opposite of what the guest says. It's not Chinese kids who were educated to work in factories that don't want to do service jobs - it's educated Chinese who went to school for engineering, accounting, etc - who don't want to work on factories. It's why they have factories that can't find workers yet still have high youth unemployment. To be fair about the car thing - Chinese cars, especially electric ones, are very popular in China and are making inroads in Europe and other places (because they're subsidized by the gov to be cheaper). However, most people would for sure prefer a foreign made electric car if cost wasn't an issue
Have you seen the vast amounts of landfills that are full of electric Chinese cars that have license plate on them meaning that they have been sold and officially registered.
@@MrSky10101Ofcourse I have. And even with that - they still have massive legit sales in China. They're cheap compared to western cars that most people can't afford. Doesn't mean that companies aren't over-producing them to get somekind of tax credit or who knows what else,, which inflates the numbers.
@@MrSky10101ive seen videos of the massive fleets yes, I've also seen a massive amount of Chinese made electric cars, and teslas, driving around the roads in China. Two things can be true at the same time.. they could be selling a ton of electric cars in China and also be further inflating the numbers to make the numbers look better than they are. I'm just sayin that there are some popular electric car brands is all. Also doesn't mean that people would prefer or choose a Chinese made car if foreign brands were readily available or affordable to them. They probably wouldn't
@@aoeu256 They absolutely don't eat healthier. Everything besides the rice has animal products in it, the food is extreeemely oily, and full of pollutants and other unsanitary practices (see gutter-oil). You are trippin... Oh and their doctor per citizen is much less and they are extremely underpaid....hence why there aren't enough - because they don't get paid well. You can't take a total number when they have the 2nd largest population. Their health outcomes are much worse as their healthcare system is vastly underfunded.. I go to a Chinese hospital once a month and it's an absolute mad-house....and this is one of the most well funded hospitals in a first tier city. The doctors see patients like a person driving through a mcdonald's because there aren't enough doctors per person. You're lying, dude
China, I think wants to push young people in doing manufacturing, but I don’t think of the young Chinese people want to do that kind of thing because there’s not making enough money that they want to make. They want to live a better life only trouble is everybody can’t do that.
Chinese youths are optimistic to their future than american youths. Try to travel visit china and outside ur american exceptionalism's bouble and see the real world.
@@walhdamaskus2408 many of us have been to China multiple times. You must be in Shanghai to think this. People in Zibo, in Gu'ermu, in Tangshan are not optimistic.
@@bflorijn , ur american goverment already let ur sociaty and old&young generations to rot by themselves on the streets. While it is just a movement in china, in USA it is a reality. Lol
Which is correct unstable or instable? Instable is not a word. The root word is stable. The opposite is unstable. And the abstract noun for unstable is instability.
The youth unemployment rate in China is potentially much worse if you add in the "full-time children" who are being paid by their family to "work" at home (running errands, doing chores, family activities, etc.).
LOL I always find it odd, U$ a nation full of hatred of CHN, amarikans sure love to talk about CHN all day long, how pathetic. can't wait for U$ to sink.
@@linmal2242 Auction them off to the highest bidder. It's what Afghans do to survive their current famine & poverty. If you don't sell them, you'll be burdened with very expensive house pets for life.
Exactly, I’m glad to see people watching these Chinese based channels that really show how bad things are there. Age discrimination in China begins as early as age 30. It’s truly bad for those who buying real estate or are paying mortgages that there is no way to afford to maintain home ownership for long. Chinese people are truly the most fed up people on Earth.
The reason immigration worked for the most part because they still had a unifying European and Christian identity. And also because people immigrated when the US culture wasn't as Liberal as it is today. Add in Progressives that teach all minorities to hate White people and the West/America and getting floods of immigrants from other cultures, you are gonna have people that are living in a completely separate nation even if they are within the US. We are already seeing that with our major demographies: White, Black and Latin. Even Latin people that are closer to Europeans are hard to mix into the mainstream culture. But I would still take Latin immigration> any other types. While non-Conservatives are the ONLY groups that actually don't wanna live with their own people. Because they are self-loathing and virtue signalling. The rest of the world has their own cultures. Now when you mix in Europe where nudity is just whatever and they are just bringing in boat loads of young men that view womens rights as non-existent and just demonize Western cultures and women in general, while Western feminists and progressives call everyone a racist for pointing out these issues, THAT is a recipe for disaster. Pro-immigration people are dumb. And for the record I am not even against immigration. I just think White people and especially European natives have fears that are very legitimate.
In a weird sort of way the market will reassert itself, even to demographics. After the horrors of the Black Death in the 1300s, the working-age population that survived was able to command better wages and condition. Traditional medieval serfdom took a serious hit. As working-age populations continue to decline, those who remain should have more leverage. The wild card is AI. If almost all human labor becomes replaceable, and human labor does not have leverage, there will be massive social instability, to say the least.
Comparing the current population decline with the Black Death doesn't work. Even though the Black Death killed a lot of people, the survivors still had kids who managed to leverage themselves into better lives. Currently, people are not having many kids, thusly they'll have even less grandkids, and even less great-grandchildren, in other words, there won't be enough people to actually leverage themselves into better lives.
@@guimts8881 - your assertion presupposes (or just plain assumes) that as populations decline, they will only keep on declining, with no abatement, until humanity is extinguished. In fact, there are numerous historical examples of birth rates bouncing back, assuming people choose to keep children. The one thing which supports your assertion is birth control. People really can choose to never have children. That has changed much.
@@lyonellaverde3135 historical examples won't help in this scenario, the current reality is too different from past instances of population decline. All the instances of population decline in the past happened due to catastrophic events, such as wars, plagues and famines. Things are different now, the population is declining because people don't wish to have as many kids as their parents or grandparents. If people were still having 2-3 kids there would be no problem, but people are mostly having 1-2 kids, with many choosing to have no children at all. This puts our societies at below replacement level, if it was a random fad that came and went in the span of one generation, then there would be no problem. But this is no fad, it's a trend passing down the generations. Thusly, each generation becomes smaller than the previous one, resulting in terrifying scenarios such as South Korea. I wasn't expecting Kim Jong Un to outlast the democratic South, yet here we are. Such is the disastrous state of affairs that we find ourselves in, that the malnourished people of North Korea, living under the worst regime of our time, are having more kids than the democratic South.
I don't know if I accept your assertion that (all) people don't wish to have as many kids are their parents and grandparents. Many do fall into this category, but 1) affordability is a huge factor in deciding the size of a family. I know I'm parroting Peter Zeihan here, but the shift from the farms to the cities is possibly the biggest influence on population sizes. When people are born on farms, they are useful as extra labor. In the cities, they are often an extra expense. Anecdotally, I have known people who live in the suburbs and small towns, having larger families than those who live in the cities. and 2) We have been at below replacement level for at least a generation, so unless couples are sterilized before meeting, I don't see how they can go much lower than the few kids of their parents and grandparents.
AI is a dream. We are not closer to creating AI then 50 years ago. Robots you see today are just stupid machines following commands written by human being. Don't worry about AI.
The truth is that children need attention, care, health care, physical space, education, etc and it is not fair to bring a child into a most situations in US.
This conversation about the cost of raising kids is so weird to me. I make about $66K a year with 4 kids and my wife is a homemaker. We're not rich but we're not really struggling, either. We also live in a rural area, though. Maybe that's the difference? Rural vs. city? I'm also kind of shocked at the total disconnect between the beginning of the conversation about why people are having so few children because they make so little money and the middle of the conversation about how a low population means a high cost of labor which is impacting Russia and China's ability to churn out a high GDP. Just to put this into perspective: Low cost of labor = low wages for employees = low birth rates = population decline. On the flip side: High cost of labor = higher wages = better standard of living = more children = population growth. Low labor costs aren't a "good thing".
Cost of living is relative, and in big population centers competition and the minimum requirements to have a job and housing are much higher than in rural locations. Definitely agree regarding labor costs. Keeping it low is something that capitalists (as in the literal meaning) desire but is detrimental to the workforce which is the extreme majority of any country.
My guy your circling the truth. What you are trying to say. Is low wages aren't good for the slaves. However what if you've broken free from labor? What if you live exclusively off capital markets? Then high wages are an unmitigated disaster. Because your capital will pull less profit and, you'll have to go back to work. That's what this is all about.
Makes me wonder about purchasing and earning power. In the video, the argument is made that people making $150,000/year in the US are having trouble affording kids.... lawyers, tesla employees, etc... if that's true, how come I know parents that earn 50-80k, and are making it work? Theyre not wealthy, but needs and comforts are taken care of..
The USSR technical education system was OUTSTANDING they would take the top qualified people and PUT them in a 7-year apprenticeship program this was SHUTDOWN when the USSR collapsed -- the youngest trained people are now in their 50s
Legal immigration to the US is next to impossible. I've tried myself... As a 28 yr old native english speaker, senior software engineer with a university degree in maths. The US authorities don't seem to want that, but Canada does... so that's where I settled. In fact, I cleared the minmum points required for their immigration points system by a long way. There are only a few ways to get into America legally: 1. Have wealthy parents so you can get into an American university and get a job offer with an American employer... but this is not such an easy ride because you are only authorised to work with the employer sponsoring you, so you are essentially beholden to them. Even worse, to get a green card, you need them to sponsor it, which is like trying to persuade a lord to let go of their serfs for nothing in return. In fact, the lord would have to pay to get rid of them, because it's not free to sponsor and involves a load of beauracracy. It rarely happens. 2. You're a genius and are well known in a particular field (mostly in STEM). 3. Marry your way in. 4. Refugee/Asylum application, etc. Obviously this is for humanitarian reasons, not economic value, so kind of irrelevant here. 5. Be rich (multimillionaire+) and move or found a company headquarters to the US (I'm sure there are tonnes of other extra rules which make this more difficult than i'm making it sound, which already sounds difficult...) 6. Have your mother illegally enter, then give birth to you. 7. The most ridiculous of all; the green card lottery. Aside from there being such a miniscule chance of getting one, it's the most ridiculous legal immigration system you could think of. Why would you want random people when you can select specifically the highest value adding migrants? Anyway, I'm 32 now so by the time America finally realises it needs immigration, I'll probably be in my mid 40s - 50s so it'll be too late. I'm happy with Canada anyway, it sure beats being on a tiny island (UK) with few natural resources and no room to grow; it will have no future in the new age... London as a global financial center is fading, the north sea only has 30 years of oil left, and the riches from the empire have been spent.
Right now would be the best time to get immigration into the USA from south of the borders, just got to have someone in the USA that's willing to be your sponsor and vouch for you.
You overlooked one way .. volunteer to serve in the military … wanna be an American .. get some blood on that line and America will talk .. otherwise good luck being Canadian . Canada is alright
In a typical year, USA takes in over 900,000 legal immigrants. Only hard to enter because huge numbers of people want to enter the US. One international poll taken some years ago indicated 5 BILLION people would like to move to the US if they thought they could.
An amazing show. I lived in Taiwan for 3 years and studied at Hwa Gang, the college of Chinese culture. I worked making films in China for over 10 years starting in 1984 (I speak Mandarin) and when corruption becaoming very bad, I then started working in Vietnam. I became a part of the Dutch film business (I'd deffinitely advise no one ro do that as the Dutch think they know everything) in 1990 for 5 years. Jordan and his guest have really nailed everything related to the Demographics of the World, not just China, Russia and America. This discussion should be seen by every intellectual in America. One of the most major problems today is that is that there is so much crap by idiots that it's hard for most folks to find something like this. Guys, I really appreciate what you're doing. Someone like Bill Maher should have both of you on his show, but his ego would probably run from you.
What advice would you give to someone with a JD from a top law school in the USA currently working as a staff attorney in a state court, but want to learn Chinese while work in China? Bad time to go now? Best places to look for jobs? Thanks for your answer if you see this and find time to answer. Happy new year !🎉
Fid If you’re a lawyer and want to learn Chinese or work in China you might want to work for that Chinese billionaire that’s benefiting from the U.S. military. It’s so absurd the U.S. gave or relied strategically on Taiwan. Like the U.S. let Tibet etc now even Hong Kong essentially get taken over by China. The only reason the U.S. is threatening war for Taiwan is cause the Taiwan or Chinese billionaire that makes chips sells stuff to the U.S. and makes it cheaper. Once he builds chip plants in the U.S. thanks to Biden’s subsidies maybe then Taiwan will politically be able to join China without a war. But you can bet that billionaire Taiwanese needs lawyers moving his empire to the US. Makes me think of the dictator in the Philippines that stole Japanese gold found by a Filipino. He fled the country and moved to Hawaii helped by the U.S. You can bet the CIA helped him move his gold for him. In a lawsuit against him the victims of Filipinos won in Hawaii court but the ex president of the Philippines magically lost all of his gold which was billions. I think the video said the lawyer found some oil land in Texas he owned. So that was sold and a little money went to that billionaires victims in the Philippines. The funny thing is that that ex president dictator today has a son I think that ran or became president of the Philippines. It’s like oh they found some of that gold money to make his son a politician again. If you’re a lawyer and want to work with Asians the CIA probably could use you in some way.
... don't, get too smug. Our Elite Masters are All hard core, dedicated members of secret societies that have ALWAYS been preparing, planning, and predictively programming the populace. Things WILL turn to shit, because it's been planned. But, HAVE NO FEAR-!!! Yeah, RIGHT ...
As a person who was born in such a system, it is music to my ears to know that all of them will be gone within our lifetime. The type of system which is rooted in the darkest desires to control and feel grandiosity by exploiting all sorts of dehumanising tools should die. Russia and China are over and will never ever be any sort of power again. The only question is how many months or years, but certainly in our lifetime
1:13:13 I think if you live in a country and you are a perm resident or citizen then identity yourself as the NATION FIRST then ethnic group - “American of Asian/Chinese ethnicity” to promote unity and loyalty we need to get better at this. 👍🏻
Never have kids during wartime. Foolish and stupid move. When we are in peace time and plentiful with a strong economy, then we must bare more children. Now is certainly not the time.
You skipped the issue of the red pill. Men are tired of getting ripped off via divorce. A smarter man is going to realize that getting married only to have it fail and end up paying alimony and child support is no longer an option.
I'm saddened to see that most comments on here are bots. Jordan, been a fan since before the Jordan Harbinger Show - sad that the haters didn't support you at the beginning. Happy to see you are doing well and have excellent guests. You've truly gone global, brother!
Over 10% of Vietnam casualties were helicopter crew members, and most of those were the door gunners that protected the helicopter, its crew, and its transports, from their exposed position. The average lifespan of a door gunner on a Huey in Vietnam was just two weeks
Among the survivorof the Viet conflict was a friend of my brother, Armit Tilgner. He survived untold number of ctashes as a helicopter piiot only to die after the war in an accident as pilot of a cargo helicopter. He received a belated medal of honor from Sen. John Kerry decades later when it was discover he was shot down more than any othe pilots.
Update to this older video: China is now selling lots of cars overseas. I think this is one of their goals, to export growth rather than relying on domestic consumption. This is related to the discussion around 59:00.
The world may not be completely falling apart *today* but it is most certainly starting to and will only get worse over time. Look at our water supply, look at the rate of top soil destruction, look at the rate of deforestation and fish stock collapse, look at the natural disasters wiping out our food crops. There are many signs that we’ve broken the ecosystem our society relies on, and collapse is imminent in the next few decades. Many people are rightly choosing not to introduce more people to the suffering that is our soon to be present.
Education and birth control are key to reducing poverty and hunger. Having a child that you can not provide for yourself is cruel and irresponsible. Countries and corporations want excess births for access to cheap labor.
Forget it. Education and birth control are not going to change poverty. There will always be some level of poverty. Poverty is dependent on the economic system . The lands ability to produce food. And with education? If everybody is a doctor, lawyer or engineer, doctors lawyers and engineers will be poor. The masses cant all be educated professionals. There is ditch digging, garbage collection, farming , all kinds of service jobs and plenty of people who dont want school above basic literacy and loathe the idea of college. And they shouldn't have to. Everyone needs a certain amount of land to be self sufficient. THEN there will be no poverty unless there's a drought or flood. And it's not a high birth rate industries want, its women's liberation.....supposedly. tjay way they keep women working jobs and paying taxes. Thats why they promote abortion, lgbt, promiscuity and go as far as to teach women that they cant " be FREE" without a job, abortion and easy divorce. They define freedom that way. It's a scam.
USA had huge amount land and access to sea is just that the land is privately owned for profit by very wealthy individuals. Singapore made owning land only temporary so that cost of living wouldn't keep increasing because of speculation.
Regarding the possible fracturing in China, considering the fact that their media is so controlled that a good portion of the population doesn’t even know it’s capital is under water because no bad news is allowed, and it’s officially illegal to show sadness in public, on top of the crazy surveillance they have, AND the social credit scores, it would be very hard for them to pull that off.
140mn in russia is still lot of people with couple million moved out. Interesting to see this decade how it fairs against japan ~120mn now also slowly declining but which declines faster. By all logic japan or korea profile country decline should be faster as living costs go up faster due to import dependency of everything needed in daily life.
First, no one knows how many people are there in Russia & China, because local authorities are inflating numbers to get more finance from central government. Second, those who leave are the most productive people of the nation. Big difference! Also, compared to Japanese, Russians are already poor and getting even poorer is really something....
I'd say Russia declines faster than Japan. Japan has known that this demographic collapse is coming, and has been trying to do what it can to fix it. Has it worked? Not entirely, but it is at least doing something. Meanwhile Russia's life expectancy is lower and it is busy throwing all of its young men to be slaughtered in Ukraine.
you're forgetting the demographics of those leaving - look at us, we had a bunch of boomers retire (or die) due to COVID... and now unemployment is at historical lows. Imagine taking out 2 million prime age workers all at once - we would be in the toilet. Russia had both happen and one thing is certain, the Russian Empire is never coming back.
I had 5 children. We live on one income All our vehicles are Old, but paid for. Our income has not gone up , in fact, we made 40k less last year while all prices in stores and with private services has gone up. We seem to be looking at loosing our farm.
In the US this could begin to be remedied if we fixed tax policy. But we have just cut taxes on the wealthy, and that directly tracks with stagnation in wage growth. People cant afford childcare, housing, and so on. That is trickling up and now professional, like Jordan says, drs. lawyers, Tech workers, cannot afford kids...but no we just keep funneling more money to the wealthy.
I don’t care what experts say, everyone everywhere knows there’s far too many people. All the environmental factors that life (animal and human) on earth depends on are becoming so degraded. Life for many will become a daily struggle.
@@mENTALdRIFTERI was also going to comment about instable not being a word, but I'm glad I didn't now. To be honest, though, the play on the word "instability" isn't obvious.
@@spencerburke 'poor' mechanistically, sure, but 'poor' as a value statement regarding their decision, absolutely not unless your view of the English language is the same as your view of the French language, which itself should be a self-obvious contradiction to any serious linguist.
This guy has no idea what it's like to be a poor ,used up , Worn out , Blind , Arthritic , Exhausted Worker when he says he wants people in their 50s and 60s to keep going in with it til it kills them before their time... People like him makes wonder where the Love of God goes....
Thanks for this guest. I'm familiar with Nich Eberstadt and Peter Zeihan and their work on population demographics but Schurman was new to me. Very impressed with his analysis.
Of course let's just tap dance around the real problems. Starting a family is too expensive, no one trusts anybody, housing too expensive, we could all lose our job tomorrow but we should still have kids...😂
This was a good topic, but I do disagree with raising the retirement age in America. The way I see it there should be two adjustments .one lift the cap on people who contribute to Social Security. second they should raise the amount a person on Social Security can earn. A lot of people drawing Social Security also have a job. but they are limited on how much they can earn they make too much money they lose benefits.
This is a good idea. I will retire in 3 years and for 2 years after that, I can only work part time since I am supposed to retire in 5 years. My sister stops paying into SS by July.
Retirement should become optional, not mandatory. People fade at different rates. I was forced into retirement 12 years ago, but now, at age 77 would love to have work, but I am too old to be employed, so if I work it will only be as self-employed. I would love to be a contributing member of the economy, but the system strongly discourages it.
There's also a big difference between being a 6o-year-old brick layer and a 60-year-old computer analyst or lawyer. Sure, the latter might feel like continuing on--unless they meet with age discrimination, which is rampant, at least in the U.S. A lot of 60+ professionals in the U.S. find it almost impossible to find another job, especially a professional one. We're presumably too expensive, in terms of salary/health care costs, and too slow to learn new technologies. As for the brick layer? I'm sure his back and joints are shot by now. So asking him to work a few more years is cruel and inhumane.
Our consumption expectations are higher also. Houses have been getting bigger, cars are more sophisticated, people expect to travel and take vacations, education is more expensive, more sophisticated medical care, more entertainment, more restaurants, more clothes. All in all, people need more money for the lifestyle they expect to live. And, frankly, fewer children is an effective way to reduce expenses
So what! It’s not about space but about the resources the earth has left. I can fit everyone in my neighborhood into my house. That does not mean that it’s a good idea lol.
To make your food only few hundred squarte meters is needed, if add pasture for meat animals, space for few hundreds poplar trees to warm your house, mere few thousends meters are need per household. People may work for a living for few weeks per year? But none goverment and corporation want that. For them? We are just work/military cattle
@jgalt308 In science, engineering, and technology, it is used in certain exceptions, but it is not interchangeable with unstable in common conversation.
@@jenaogirl What does instable mean in English? Meaning of instable in English not solid and firm and therefore not strong, safe, or likely to last: The country is hoping to move on after going through a difficult and instable period.Aug 2, 2023 INSTABLE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
Most of what he’s saying is exactly what I’ve heard before though. Especially his stats. From several other sources. Crazy…how these guys talk so apocalyptically about these other countries and never mention anything about the US. It’s all about resources, I guess.
No. It's about more than resources. It's about nations positions and dispositions and a range of factors relative to the challenges they face. Some have the capacity to weather their economic and demographic challenges based on their fexibility due to underlying social, cultural, political and economic features and policies while others, whose population or political class are in rigid denial of said challenges and/or have no immigration programs or fewer attractions, are facing a future that's significantly more grim. 16:17
It shouldn't be called "geriatric pregnancies" , unless a woman is having her baby over 60 years old. And, they aren't just being able to have children at 40 something just because of science. It has more to do with being healthy, and eating well. I have had 6 children from the age of 20 to 45. In fact, my last pregnancy and birthing was my easiest. Mostly because I knew what to expect which helped me stay calm. A little science was there since I did need a slight episiotomy to aid in the birth.
You are wrong. Anyone over 30 is elderly when it comes to having babies. Primagravida means 1st pregnancy. They used to call women 27 and over ELDERLY primagravidas. These doctors have been LYING to women. They act like if you"re older, don't worry they can pull you through. Meanwhile we have the highest maternal mortality rate in the world. And that's totally forgetting the consequences of abortion and years of chemical birth control. It's best to have kids between 15 and 30.
@@alexbaidak2475 It depends on overall health status. Pregnancy is a stress of the physical system, but not an undue one in the absence of hypertension, renal or heart disease, respiratory insufficiency, cancer or autoimmune disease.
Love your podcast and your quests! I live in EU and i noticed that in my city Russian migrants dramatically grew up in number. All of them are young families with children or young people. Your guest makes sense.
This is before the Ukraine Russo conflict, but I used to live out in Montana and there was a sizable population of Russian immigrants who didn’t really speak English, kinda kept to themselves, and were known for growing cucumbers and selling them at the local farmer markets. They also had a bakery. Cucumbers and baked goods were top-notch.
Meaning of instable in English not solid and firm and therefore not strong, safe, or likely to last: The country is hoping to move on after going through a difficult and instable period.4 days ago INSTABLE | definition in the Cambridge English Dictionary
I have never wanted to have kids because ever since I was a kid I saw people raising kids and they did not look happy and always seemed stressed. No thank you.
People in China don't want to by Chinese cars? I suspect BYD and others would disagree with you. Regarding Manufacturing in China. According to Statista, value added from manufacturing is projected to increase at a healthy pace through 2028. In 2023 83% of manufacturers reported a 10-30% shortfall in their labor requirements. The jobs are there, young people just don't want them. The reasons given are poor workplace environment, wages are low without overtime, and young people feel the work is beneath them. A view that is very similar to the view held by young people in the West.
Mind you, China has never owned Taiwan, so it is wrong to say that they want it back. They may well want Taiwan, but it would be a new territory for them.
The government on the island Taiwan is The Republic of China formed in 1911, who rules Whole China inclusive Taiwan. So China owned Taiwan. 1949 The People's Republic of China has taken over The Republic of China and got the whole China inclusive Taiwan as its Territory like the The Republic of China had taken over the Qing Dynasty.
@@greatsky8226The Government of Taiwan is a government in exile and the rightful ruler of all China. All they have to do is outlast the CCP and then China can reunite under democratic rule.
Supremely interesting. Glad to see demographics are becoming popular topic. Was starting to hear WAY too many people chiming in unison about overpopulation and the "end of the world". Really awesome informative show
Chinese cars are all over Europe. The "halt-and-catch-fire" problem is common to EVs (so far), and decreasing from minor incidence to almost zero globally.
Those 1 percenters saying that they can't afford kids are a different cohort from your average truck driver with his two, three or even four little ankle biters! So, is it 'selfishness' ? Is it cost of living? Is it just fearfulness?
Well, most people somehow manage to spend whatever their income is. So the one percenter might feel that indeed that they can't have children without changing their current rich lifestyle and they don't want to. Everybody can 'afford' children, in fact, statistics tell you that income and number of children are negatively correlated. Rich people don't want children, poor people end up just having them :P
@@Eikenhorst Many Afghan families have had to sell their children, especially young girls, just to make ends meet. 😢 You can thank Joetato's Pull-Out Policy for that.
11:55 "I don't see a lot of immigration to Russia" Try looking harder. In 2015-2022 Russia had a net positive migration flow of 1,7 million or about 220 thousand more people every year moved to Russia than emigrated out of it. The war and conscription affected the mood and the net migration fell from a 2021 record high of 430k down to a 2022 record low of only 62k, but still even with war there are more people immigrating into Russia (mostly from poorer ex USSR countries) than there emigrating from Russia. Pretty easy info to find for anyone interested in facts.
The first and main issue is the idea parents become burdensome to their children. If you took better care of your self today you might be less disabled later. Once generations get their head staright and understand that families will do far better by taking care of each other vs selling them to an old folkshome later in life. This is pure indoctrination and it works.
Monsanto infusing literal industrial poison into every input in the food supply makes it a lot harder for normal people to take care of themselves, especially as the cost of real food goes parabolic
The principle that makes life worth living, and sickness less likely, is taking personal responsibility for MY health. Own your outcome! Eat on the peripery of the grocery story. Avoid the plague of fast food.
@@terranceramirez4816okaaay. Take away the fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides and insecticides and you will really see your food bills go parabolic! You don't know what you are talking about.
Thank goodness the population will decline at some point. The size of the world does not increase as population increase exponentially. If we continue to grow the way we have been going, we will destroy ourselves and the earth anyway. I will much rather deal with the problems of a decreasing population than an exponentially growing population.
What part has the student loans played in making college graduates unable to have families. I know several people who would love to get married and have kids, but their student loans are too great for them to consider marriage and children.
It's by design. TPTB wrote a plan to bring down America in the 50s by destroying the family, increasing racial division, the long march through the institutions, the gradual increase in corporate monopolies, and increasing taxation and the loss of private property to foreign investors and corporations. I would say they largely succeeded, we have maybe another 10 years before we're fully controlled by AI enhanced spyware and cameras like China is now with their Social Credit Score. Why do you think they want self driving trucks? That eliminates the human element in the supply chain. He who controls the food controls the people. Look at how they treated the truckers in Canadistan
I find that hard to believe. More like an excuse. Student loans can be deferred, monyhlyvincome reduced, and if you want to you can default and theyll take your tax refunds to pay it off..........and if you have kids that can be alot of money. Drag it out till you get old, amd you can get disability likely and have the rest forgiven.
AI may soon replace some "desk jobs," but not blue collar jobs. I cant imagine an AI robot that can build a new house or install solar onto an existing one. BTW as a result, I also see AI disproportionately disaffecting woman more than men, as more women complete college and prefer white collar jobs over blue collar jobs. More importantly I don't see that changing, as most blue collar jobs are physically demanding, are often dirty and have historically been lower-paying (although, "that" may be changing as well). Quality labor is hard to find in the San Francisco Bay Area where I live, and has begun to pay much better than in the past...
The 1%ers who are not having children are, for the most part, our 'brain trust' who we desperately need to reproduce. OMG! The movie 'Idiocracy' has predicted our future.
Chinese youth can spell English a hell of a lot better than Jordan Harbinger even if unstable! And we have known that population levels out/grows/shrinks for a long time, per specific chapters like affluence, extreme poverty, etc. I am SO sick of everyone acting like their schtick is brand new! Truth is, they just arrived on the scene & its new to THEM.
Raw population growth isn't everything. Take Africa. Theyve had high population growth there for hundreds of years. However, they've had high mortality rates to go with it, and still do.
Excelent comments. Kind of open one eyes and see things in a much clear way and makes so much sense. First time for me to listen to you but not the last time Is refreshing to listen to my opinion smart conversation and not politics Thank you very much for this conversation Started to see things in a diferent way👍🏻
In conclusion: Society does not invest in young people enough (young adults included). I wonder if this could be solved if investors could invest in families akin to how they invest in stocks?
Great analysis! Scary, but thorough! I am 66 and still working, just not sure how long I can continue to work? We have to help people be healthier not just to live longer, but live stronger. I don't want to sit and rust over, but....
People ynderstimate the economic and psychological effect of a declining population. The Japanese are doing it tough. They have forests outside Tokyo were people go to kill themselves. Property prices in the country are collapsing.
The decision to have children as a farmer, is a question of how many surviving children do I need to work the farm as I age or retire. They cost little and pull their own weight at about 10. As a modern parent, the kid is a huge expense until 25 or older, and I don't need any to retire or work the farm. There's no selfish reason to have children after farms.
It's two-way really, population growth could advance technology sure (more brain-power). And advanced technology raise "resource usage efficiency limit" or "soft malthusian limit". But you can't deny the hard fact that people need food to live, and food is grown on limited resource (limited land). People bashed Malthus so much because they assume there will always be another green revolution if we hit the ceiling, a technological revolution which no one can really predict in advance (in the 1900 who thought we could fly like birds). I think the current trend of falling population is demonstrating instead the indirect effect of malthusian limit. Things get pricey relative to wage/income these days and people don't want to have children, both are invisible hand of market force trying to balance the finiteness of resource extraction and usage after factoring in our technological advances. It's invisible hand trying to enforce a form of malthusian limit, though a soft one.
@@hikashia.halfiah3582 Only a tiny fraction of the land that can used for food production is in use, and it being "finite extraction" is irrelevant to any discussion about politics or economics .
Also, what is the impact of the democrats' inflation production act, with it pushing the cost of paying the interest on the debt above what is paid for national defense, having on the abilities of the current generation to consider having children?
Simple problem to solve. REPEAL the federal income tax AMENDMENT and the federal reserve act. US debt to the federal reserve bank needs to be nullified. Then we can build back better.
I see a drone war evolution taking place where loiter weapons search for targets and cluster weapons break static defences. This will lead to remotely fought wars?
While I agree there . . . That works only for frozen conflicts If a country wants to take territory, claim it as their own, or to take the resources of said territory, then they will still need Infantry too bolden/strengthen their claim Which means that, unless there is a way to relegate Infantry to a robot, you still will need bodies on the front line to ensure taken territory isn’t lost
The children who won’t be born will never have to face a future of continuing environmental devastation, loss of biodiversity, of economic and global tensions and uncertainties, the probable spread of nuclear weapons, diminishing natural resources of all kinds and the likelihood of crop failures and food shortages brought about by climate change.
As a population's standard of living rises it has been shown their people have fewer children, especially in India where a landmark study was conducted. Very informative perspectives in this session. Was glad to catch it.
There are a lot of things about Asia that this guy doesn't get, and I wish Jordan had prompted further discussion on them. Like, people retiring in China at 50 or whatever he said, but then no discussion of the crap money they get, so when they "retire," haha, they're just being pushed out for younger people who will work for cheaper, so they have to have, by 50, figured out a shop or a restaurant, what have you, to eke by. Most people would be surprised by the number of Samsung (for example, not picking on them) employees in more developed South Korea who know going in at 23 or 25 that they need an exit strategy by 40 or 45 (a lot of times creating a company that will make a tech device that Samsung or another biggie will buy/license). So, it's not that they're "retiring" and sipping cocktails by the Yangzi River. Jordan... come on... you know about this stuff.
@@jperin001 Overall, it was still an excellent episode, but I felt there were a few points that were glossed over without an understanding of the region (not intentional and not even that he didn't know about them, just they could have been addressed).
@@brek5 Agree. It would be a nice touch if podcasters revisited previous episodes on the regular to drill down even deeper on topics with consideration to valid points in comments.
He mentioned dependency ratios and the culture of providing for elders that is rampant in the East (and the fact that due to the one child policy in China, sons and grandsons tend to take care of their elders less than daughters and grand daughters). In Europe, parents are better off than their children since housing has become so expensive (along childcare and other stuff), while salaries stagnated for decades. The gall with which governments rail against couples that don't have children is baffling: raising a kid until college is astronomical, unless you make it fend for him/herself after he finishes middle school (more or less like my parents did with my sister and me, both GenXers).
I learn so much from you on your videos!! Thank you very much!! I only had one child myself, and she passed at 25 from walking pneumonia. My reason for one child was because I was poor. Now that I'm not poor anymore,I'm too old to have more. I would have loved to have more children!! I live in America on the east coast.
This is fascinating, and it's SOOOOO nice to hear two people have an intelligent, reasonable and decent conversation about things that matter. I needed this like I need water.
My son, an MDPhD and currently in his first year residency training to be a Cardiologist, has declared not to have children. If the best, the brightest, and the most hardworking young people don't want to have children, I see a darker future for humanity.
Sounds like your son is a selfish loser who made terrible financial decisions.
Is he alph or beta?
Well, unlike women, he can wait relatively long should he ever change his mind. Also, young people declare things that they change their minds on all the time. My millennial brother was for years adamant he would not have kids, but lo and behold who is expecting to become a dad in the near future.
Though my career is plenty meaningful, it pales compared to me raising my kids. Had them mid-late 30ties. Maybe being a doctor is different, but many millennials and Z'ers will change their minds when they hit 35. Though, for some, this is too late.
Your son has time to change his mind. I'm 58 and liberally have beautiful teens and 20 year olds giving me female attention
YES, DIRE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, LIVING STANDARDS WILL BE GOING DOWN, SOCIAL SECURITY CHECKS WILL BE SMALLER, RETIRMENT AGE WILL GO UP TO 70 OR HIGHER,
People still don’t get it. Middle class Americans cannot afford children end of story. Real estate costs are insane, child care costs are insane, cost of food is insane, buying a car has never been more expensive. Never mind the costs of their college education.
That leaves us with 3 choices.
Choice 1: Don’t have kids
Choice 2: Work 60-80 hours per week in either stressful corporate job or multiple blue collar jobs. This lifestyle will burn you the fuck out and you will never see your kids.
Choice 3: Cut your consumption/lifestyle back to a middle class family circa 1990. One car household, no iPhones, one family computer, one plane vacation every 5 years, eat out once every month, minimal entertainment.
How many people do you know would give up their modern lifestyles to have kids?
This is the main reason people aren’t having kids.
Realistically people need to stop working en masse and force a reckoning. Fuck this growth based insanity. I've stopped all economic output unless it's volunteering on a friend's farm or something that my labor directly benefits someone with no money involved. Destroy the dollar.
Im curious how 2020s and 2030s gonna look like if option 3 is getting closer. Seems much better than first 2. Just needs enough middle class to drop from overconsumption to accept this level so your kids or you arent bullied in school and other places. Teachers and kindergarten "nurses" would take this option, smartphones cause enough problems with kids.
Choice 3 won't make much difference when a house costs six figures and it takes young couples decades of austerity to save enough money just for a down payment. In hot real estate markets it's not unusual for a house to make money faster than its owner does.
@@mosquitobight but that's just recently. If the corporations dont completely take over and withhold land from the lower classes , then they will change. You can keep up to 4 kids in one room. You can have girls in one bedroom and boys in another. Infants up to about 3 in your room. You can buy most clothes at thrift stores. You dont need cable. If you have a smartphone you dont need a computer, if you dont a laptop or desktop is fine. If your wife stays home and takes care of her young, then you save enough for another home or land.
Ye of little faith.
China's population is not 1.4 billion. Analysts outside China estimate its true population at closer to 900 million. There are two main reasons that China's population has been exaggerated. First, many Chinese -- especially those who are wealthy, shady or both -- have obtained multiple birth certificates in order to evade taxes, etc. Second, local governments, schools and various other organizations obtain funding based in part on their population. What these two reasons have a common is that they're both a function of corruption.
Top comment. This is totally underreported. All actual third-party data indicates their population is far lower than 1.4 billion.
what a load of crap. No one in China would report they have more kids than they actually have as they will be heavily fined if they have more than 1 kid. And income tax rate in China is very low and the threshold for the tax brackets are high. You're m0r0n and you're projecting the western taxation system & thinking on China. LOL
Yep, and death rates were miscounted for decades, for the same reasons. C19 killed many more than mentioned by the official propaganda, of course.
Nah mate, hat is a over exagerated in the estimation. In the book ''Big Nation, empty nest'' the author have realistic estimations of 1.28 billion but shrinking quickly, they probably peaked around 2010, and now they are plummeting quickly
Probably in the 1.2 billion range. Bu lt they are already on the beginning of decline and it will accelerate rapidly if current trends continue. An analyst friend of mine stated that they are already shrinking by 20,000 people A DAY and that it will go faster and faster. Supposedly pop cut in half by 2100. The social and economic impacts of that are hard to fathom, and it means that China's power window is as wide as it will be for the foreseeable future is the next 5-10 years. Period of maximum danger as they know they will soon begin the decline and if they want Taiwan, etc they need to get it soon.
0:51: 🌍 The global population is projected to stop growing by 2086, due to declining birth rates and increasing longevity.
09:23: 💥 The declining birth rates in Russia and the impact of the war in Ukraine on population growth.
18:21: 💔 The ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine is resulting in a high human cost, with an average of four hours between deaths, leading to a significant population decline in Russia and potential fragmentation of the country.
27:34: 📉 Russia is facing a severe population decline due to low birth rates, emigration, and a struggling economy.
35:34: 🌍 The decline in population in Russia may lead to demographic attrition being weaponized by the United States and its allies.
44:35: 🌍 The declining populations of Russia and China will have significant impacts on their economies and global power.
53:23: 🇨🇳 China's economy is becoming unstable due to demographic change and high youth unemployment.
1:04:11: 📉 China's declining birth rate and aging population is causing a dependency ratio imbalance, threatening the economy.
1:11:21: 🌍 China's challenges include rapid development, outward migration, and potential conflict with Taiwan.
1:20:28: 🌍 The changing population dynamics of countries like India, China, and Russia have significant geopolitical implications.
1:29:13: 🌍 The world has made incredible progress over the past century, but it requires continued investment to maintain and improve our current standards of living.
Recap by Tammy AI
Calm down, It's a just a time stamp summary.
@alanconway94 nowadays, it's less about belief and more about hard data...
Not impressed. AI spouts things out mindlessly
1:13:13 I think if you live in a country and you are a perm resident or citizen then identity yourself as the NATION FIRST then ethnic group - “American of Asian/Chinese ethnicity” to promote unity and loyalty we need to get better at this. 👍🏻
7:00 i'm almost 64. My dad and my uncles warned us not to have any kids because what the world was turning into. They said there would be a nuclear exchange within 75 years of Hiroshima. It scared us. Three guys on either side of my family had no kids. We wiped out two family names. Those families were here for a millennia and now they're gone.
That is sad
The world is going to end, fact. We are going to end, fact. What matters is what we do in the meantime. Having a child is a miracle, but also a statement of confidence that, come all the problems, life will be worth living for those who are willing to participate in this life.
@Gaperina having a child is not a miracle. It is all too easy to do. The world will be suffering from overpopulation for many centuries, unless a catastrophic die-off occurs. When the experts refer to demographic collapse, they are referring to the quantity of people necessary to maintain a modern industrial society. But the sustainable carrying capacity of the planet is far below the current population levels. Far better to have population decline due to people deciding not to have kids than to reduce population via war, famine, ecological collapse, disease, or pestilence
You're a guy? It's not too late at 64. A bit icky perhaps, but Pachino just had a kid and he's in his 80's.
never listen to anyone
I'm really sick of hosts/guests calling people racists if they don't agree with their open borders philosophies. All the while, misnaming it "immigration" which is essentially the conversation at around 36:00 and 37:00. If people want different immigration laws, change it. But don't break the laws that are on the books. Has nothing to do with race or irrational fears. Geez.
People with farms love illegals coming in for cheap labor
lol, I also find it hilarious that anyone would take the numbers coming out of China seriously. As if the CCP would lose face admitting that they are anything but stellar. You know like the underwater tunnel collapse where only 238 people passed yet if one was to look at the released pics of football fields of cars that were pulled from the tunnel. Estimates put the numbers more around upwards of 10,000.. The floods and a bridge collapsed, People perishing and instead of rushing in there with rescue crews, The priority was to put up barriers everywhere so it could be seen or reported. Buildings and infrastructure crumbling and collapsing regularly, Fire Hydrants that are fake, sinkholes regularly. I for well over a decade have had zero trust for US legacy media and certainly am not going to believe what the CCP puts out with their track record.
TOFU DREG FOR THE WIN! HEY, LET'S TOPPLE SOME COMPLETE BUILDINGS!!!!! YAY!!!!! AMERICA ASSHOE, CHINA NUMBER ONE
Worked with a guy that did clean up in New Orleans after the hurricane. He said the official numbers down there were WAY off as well. He cleaned out attics. Then there were several tornadoes that wiped out whole towns. Yet reported was maybe a dozen lost. It def happens here too.
There are third party news in China aren't there
@@aoeu256 Only via VPN servers. China's internet is strictly locked down.
Greetings fellow The China Show enthusiast
With you until you mischaracterized everyone upset with too much immigration as race based. Immigration is wonderful up to a point but if a large number come from one particular place the character of the country changes. If a little of something is beneficial that doesnt mean a lot of it is better.
I agree with you. Look at NewI York, and Now they are moving into New Jersey. Places that use to have crime has seen an spike in petty crime. Crime waves tend to start with petty crimes. America is taking in bus loads of people with no plans for them. They are not considering that the voting public find this destabilizing. These migrants feel entitled I am Independent voter. I will vote for anyone who will plug the border hole. I am sick of it
Why shouldn't it be race based? Why is everyone except white people allowed to prefer to be amongst those like them?
So, come up with a plan to completely transform the U. S. model (based EMNTIRELY on immigration for growth, regardless of its inequities), with no common original culture, so that it doesn't become a failed state in 3 generations.
He's completely right on the psychology of it. Whether people admit to it is another thing. Especially the lying, trumpet coup fash types who aren't really from that land anyway. Many know their white supremacist gramps/forefathers gncded, ethnc clnsed and stole all the loot(the vast resources of a whole continent) and they don't want to give a dime to non white migrants - even though they just got off the boat themselves. Or "pay taxes" from their ill gotten wealth
No
You are just a racist. Almost all of America's significant immigration has occurred in waves. Italians. Polish. Japanese. Chinese. Irish. Koreans. Vietnamese. South Americans. The immigrants were almost always looked down upon as inferior. Over time, all have become valued members of American society. BTW, the majority of crimes are perpetrated by Americans, not immigrants.
4 hours is according to one ex-US-Marine, back in February. The Rouble has fallen 66% against the dollar, not 20%. Russia worked with the Nazis to invade Poland. Stalin only fought them at that time because they attacked, they were sending war supplies to Germany the day before. You can't really call the Soviet Union a "guard" against the Nazis, though it was very fortunate for the Allies that they were drawn into the war.
The Soviets were undermining the Nazis prior to actual war with things like taking over German nickel supplies in Finland.
well remarked
@@TheProphet49 Oh, please. Your ignorance is astonishing. Are you trying to be thick?? If so, then well done?
@@TheProphet49Contemporaneous writings show Stalin was also planning to betray Hitler, but Hitler acted first.
Weren't most of the deaths from Soviets during the war from conscription outside of Russia?
One thing I want to mention - around 56:39 when Brad says China's average life expectancy is 81. Take that with a large grain of salt, considering its from their official statistics and is likely massaged for political reasons.
Also, women are not just "allowed" to retire at age 50-55 - they need to retire. Although many still work off the books.
The details of the youth unemployment are actually the opposite of what the guest says. It's not Chinese kids who were educated to work in factories that don't want to do service jobs - it's educated Chinese who went to school for engineering, accounting, etc - who don't want to work on factories. It's why they have factories that can't find workers yet still have high youth unemployment.
To be fair about the car thing - Chinese cars, especially electric ones, are very popular in China and are making inroads in Europe and other places (because they're subsidized by the gov to be cheaper). However, most people would for sure prefer a foreign made electric car if cost wasn't an issue
Have you seen the vast amounts of landfills that are full of electric Chinese cars that have license plate on them meaning that they have been sold and officially registered.
@@MrSky10101Ofcourse I have. And even with that - they still have massive legit sales in China. They're cheap compared to western cars that most people can't afford. Doesn't mean that companies aren't over-producing them to get somekind of tax credit or who knows what else,, which inflates the numbers.
@@MrSky10101ive seen videos of the massive fleets yes, I've also seen a massive amount of Chinese made electric cars, and teslas, driving around the roads in China. Two things can be true at the same time.. they could be selling a ton of electric cars in China and also be further inflating the numbers to make the numbers look better than they are. I'm just sayin that there are some popular electric car brands is all. Also doesn't mean that people would prefer or choose a Chinese made car if foreign brands were readily available or affordable to them. They probably wouldn't
Chinese trend to eat healthier, have less gun violence, have public transport, no guns, smaller opioid crisis, have more doctors per capita.
@@aoeu256 They absolutely don't eat healthier. Everything besides the rice has animal products in it, the food is extreeemely oily, and full of pollutants and other unsanitary practices (see gutter-oil). You are trippin...
Oh and their doctor per citizen is much less and they are extremely underpaid....hence why there aren't enough - because they don't get paid well. You can't take a total number when they have the 2nd largest population. Their health outcomes are much worse as their healthcare system is vastly underfunded.. I go to a Chinese hospital once a month and it's an absolute mad-house....and this is one of the most well funded hospitals in a first tier city. The doctors see patients like a person driving through a mcdonald's because there aren't enough doctors per person. You're lying, dude
China, I think wants to push young people in doing manufacturing, but I don’t think of the young Chinese people want to do that kind of thing because there’s not making enough money that they want to make. They want to live a better life only trouble is everybody can’t do that.
Chinese youths are optimistic to their future than american youths. Try to travel visit china and outside ur american exceptionalism's bouble and see the real world.
@@walhdamaskus2408 many of us have been to China multiple times. You must be in Shanghai to think this. People in Zibo, in Gu'ermu, in Tangshan are not optimistic.
@@happyhappynuts , and yes i have been in usa too. More american kids are pessimisti about their future than the chinese kids.
@@walhdamaskus2408chinese children optimistic? Never heard about "let it rot" movement?
@@bflorijn , ur american goverment already let ur sociaty and old&young generations to rot by themselves on the streets. While it is just a movement in china, in USA it is a reality. Lol
Which is correct unstable or instable?
Instable is not a word. The root word is stable. The opposite is unstable. And the abstract noun for unstable is instability.
Correct. You would think they would know that.😅
More unstable is instabilization of my mind? Is UN IN or In UN?
The youth unemployment rate in China is potentially much worse if you add in the "full-time children" who are being paid by their family to "work" at home (running errands, doing chores, family activities, etc.).
I've got a pair of them, and I'm in AUS !!!
Yes, I know quite a few of them both in China and Hong Kong.
LOL I always find it odd, U$ a nation full of hatred of CHN, amarikans sure love to talk about CHN all day long, how pathetic. can't wait for U$ to sink.
@@linmal2242
Auction them off to the highest bidder. It's what Afghans do to survive their current famine & poverty. If you don't sell them, you'll be burdened with very expensive house pets for life.
Exactly, I’m glad to see people watching these Chinese based channels that really show how bad things are there. Age discrimination in China begins as early as age 30. It’s truly bad for those who buying real estate or are paying mortgages that there is no way to afford to maintain home ownership for long. Chinese people are truly the most fed up people on Earth.
It's bizzare to me that so many people still assume immigration from every place is equivalent...
😮4😮
😮
The reason immigration worked for the most part because they still had a unifying European and Christian identity. And also because people immigrated when the US culture wasn't as Liberal as it is today.
Add in Progressives that teach all minorities to hate White people and the West/America and getting floods of immigrants from other cultures, you are gonna have people that are living in a completely separate nation even if they are within the US. We are already seeing that with our major demographies: White, Black and Latin. Even Latin people that are closer to Europeans are hard to mix into the mainstream culture. But I would still take Latin immigration> any other types. While non-Conservatives are the ONLY groups that actually don't wanna live with their own people. Because they are self-loathing and virtue signalling. The rest of the world has their own cultures.
Now when you mix in Europe where nudity is just whatever and they are just bringing in boat loads of young men that view womens rights as non-existent and just demonize Western cultures and women in general, while Western feminists and progressives call everyone a racist for pointing out these issues, THAT is a recipe for disaster.
Pro-immigration people are dumb. And for the record I am not even against immigration. I just think White people and especially European natives have fears that are very legitimate.
Because it's not politically correct.
Just how hard is it to assimilate third world unskilled immigrants into an advanced post industrial economy?
In a weird sort of way the market will reassert itself, even to demographics. After the horrors of the Black Death in the 1300s, the working-age population that survived was able to command better wages and condition. Traditional medieval serfdom took a serious hit. As working-age populations continue to decline, those who remain should have more leverage.
The wild card is AI. If almost all human labor becomes replaceable, and human labor does not have leverage, there will be massive social instability, to say the least.
Comparing the current population decline with the Black Death doesn't work. Even though the Black Death killed a lot of people, the survivors still had kids who managed to leverage themselves into better lives. Currently, people are not having many kids, thusly they'll have even less grandkids, and even less great-grandchildren, in other words, there won't be enough people to actually leverage themselves into better lives.
@@guimts8881 - your assertion presupposes (or just plain assumes) that as populations decline, they will only keep on declining, with no abatement, until humanity is extinguished. In fact, there are numerous historical examples of birth rates bouncing back, assuming people choose to keep children.
The one thing which supports your assertion is birth control. People really can choose to never have children. That has changed much.
@@lyonellaverde3135 historical examples won't help in this scenario, the current reality is too different from past instances of population decline. All the instances of population decline in the past happened due to catastrophic events, such as wars, plagues and famines.
Things are different now, the population is declining because people don't wish to have as many kids as their parents or grandparents. If people were still having 2-3 kids there would be no problem, but people are mostly having 1-2 kids, with many choosing to have no children at all.
This puts our societies at below replacement level, if it was a random fad that came and went in the span of one generation, then there would be no problem.
But this is no fad, it's a trend passing down the generations. Thusly, each generation becomes smaller than the previous one, resulting in terrifying scenarios such as South Korea.
I wasn't expecting Kim Jong Un to outlast the democratic South, yet here we are. Such is the disastrous state of affairs that we find ourselves in, that the malnourished people of North Korea, living under the worst regime of our time, are having more kids than the democratic South.
I don't know if I accept your assertion that (all) people don't wish to have as many kids are their parents and grandparents. Many do fall into this category, but 1) affordability is a huge factor in deciding the size of a family. I know I'm parroting Peter Zeihan here, but the shift from the farms to the cities is possibly the biggest influence on population sizes. When people are born on farms, they are useful as extra labor. In the cities, they are often an extra expense. Anecdotally, I have known people who live in the suburbs and small towns, having larger families than those who live in the cities.
and 2) We have been at below replacement level for at least a generation, so unless couples are sterilized before meeting, I don't see how they can go much lower than the few kids of their parents and grandparents.
AI is a dream. We are not closer to creating AI then 50 years ago. Robots you see today are just stupid machines following commands written by human being. Don't worry about AI.
The truth is that children need attention, care, health care, physical space, education, etc and it is not fair to bring a child into a most situations in US.
This conversation about the cost of raising kids is so weird to me. I make about $66K a year with 4 kids and my wife is a homemaker. We're not rich but we're not really struggling, either. We also live in a rural area, though. Maybe that's the difference? Rural vs. city?
I'm also kind of shocked at the total disconnect between the beginning of the conversation about why people are having so few children because they make so little money and the middle of the conversation about how a low population means a high cost of labor which is impacting Russia and China's ability to churn out a high GDP. Just to put this into perspective: Low cost of labor = low wages for employees = low birth rates = population decline. On the flip side: High cost of labor = higher wages = better standard of living = more children = population growth.
Low labor costs aren't a "good thing".
Cost of living is relative, and in big population centers competition and the minimum requirements to have a job and housing are much higher than in rural locations.
Definitely agree regarding labor costs. Keeping it low is something that capitalists (as in the literal meaning) desire but is detrimental to the workforce which is the extreme majority of any country.
It's all based on WHERE u live. U can not afford much where I live even with a great paying job.
Transplant that wage to NY or LA - and yeah, you'd be lucky to have a cardboard box with that wage.
My guy your circling the truth. What you are trying to say. Is low wages aren't good for the slaves. However what if you've broken free from labor? What if you live exclusively off capital markets? Then high wages are an unmitigated disaster. Because your capital will pull less profit and, you'll have to go back to work. That's what this is all about.
The global South will like to disagree
Informative, educational, and eye opening - most definitely worth listening to.
Thank you both for a great interview.
Best from Denmark, JL
Makes me wonder about purchasing and earning power. In the video, the argument is made that people making $150,000/year in the US are having trouble affording kids.... lawyers, tesla employees, etc... if that's true, how come I know parents that earn 50-80k, and are making it work? Theyre not wealthy, but needs and comforts are taken care of..
The USSR technical education system was OUTSTANDING
they would take the top qualified people and PUT them in a 7-year apprenticeship program
this was SHUTDOWN when the USSR collapsed -- the youngest trained people are now in their 50s
Didn't Putin announce a year or so ago that Russia will resume the best practices in education from its Soviet period?
now that is Funny
Putin and education @@vaska1999
Legal immigration to the US is next to impossible. I've tried myself... As a 28 yr old native english speaker, senior software engineer with a university degree in maths. The US authorities don't seem to want that, but Canada does... so that's where I settled. In fact, I cleared the minmum points required for their immigration points system by a long way. There are only a few ways to get into America legally:
1. Have wealthy parents so you can get into an American university and get a job offer with an American employer... but this is not such an easy ride because you are only authorised to work with the employer sponsoring you, so you are essentially beholden to them. Even worse, to get a green card, you need them to sponsor it, which is like trying to persuade a lord to let go of their serfs for nothing in return. In fact, the lord would have to pay to get rid of them, because it's not free to sponsor and involves a load of beauracracy. It rarely happens.
2. You're a genius and are well known in a particular field (mostly in STEM).
3. Marry your way in.
4. Refugee/Asylum application, etc. Obviously this is for humanitarian reasons, not economic value, so kind of irrelevant here.
5. Be rich (multimillionaire+) and move or found a company headquarters to the US (I'm sure there are tonnes of other extra rules which make this more difficult than i'm making it sound, which already sounds difficult...)
6. Have your mother illegally enter, then give birth to you.
7. The most ridiculous of all; the green card lottery. Aside from there being such a miniscule chance of getting one, it's the most ridiculous legal immigration system you could think of. Why would you want random people when you can select specifically the highest value adding migrants?
Anyway, I'm 32 now so by the time America finally realises it needs immigration, I'll probably be in my mid 40s - 50s so it'll be too late. I'm happy with Canada anyway, it sure beats being on a tiny island (UK) with few natural resources and no room to grow; it will have no future in the new age... London as a global financial center is fading, the north sea only has 30 years of oil left, and the riches from the empire have been spent.
Right now would be the best time to get immigration into the USA from south of the borders, just got to have someone in the USA that's willing to be your sponsor and vouch for you.
You overlooked one way .. volunteer to serve in the military … wanna be an American .. get some blood on that line and America will talk .. otherwise good luck being Canadian . Canada is alright
In a typical year, USA takes in over 900,000 legal immigrants. Only hard to enter because huge numbers of people want to enter the US. One international poll taken some years ago indicated 5 BILLION people would like to move to the US if they thought they could.
Number 6 is going to devastate a lot of children in america real soon
Did you ever consider the island of Ireland?
An amazing show. I lived in Taiwan for 3 years and studied at Hwa Gang, the college of Chinese culture. I worked making films in China for over 10 years starting in 1984 (I speak Mandarin) and when corruption becaoming very bad, I then started working in Vietnam. I became a part of the Dutch film business (I'd deffinitely advise no one ro do that as the Dutch think they know everything) in 1990 for 5 years. Jordan and his guest have really nailed everything related to the Demographics of the World, not just China, Russia and America. This discussion should be seen by every intellectual in America. One of the most major problems today is that is that there is so much crap by idiots that it's hard for most folks to find something like this. Guys, I really appreciate what you're doing. Someone like Bill Maher should have both of you on his show, but his ego would probably run from you.
What advice would you give to someone with a JD from a top law school in the USA currently working as a staff attorney in a state court, but want to learn Chinese while work in China? Bad time to go now? Best places to look for jobs? Thanks for your answer if you see this and find time to answer. Happy new year !🎉
Fid
If you’re a lawyer and want to learn Chinese or work in China you might want to work for that Chinese billionaire that’s benefiting from the U.S. military. It’s so absurd the U.S. gave or relied strategically on Taiwan. Like the U.S. let Tibet etc now even Hong Kong essentially get taken over by China. The only reason the U.S. is threatening war for Taiwan is cause the Taiwan or Chinese billionaire that makes chips sells stuff to the U.S. and makes it cheaper. Once he builds chip plants in the U.S. thanks to Biden’s subsidies maybe then Taiwan will politically be able to join China without a war.
But you can bet that billionaire Taiwanese needs lawyers moving his empire to the US.
Makes me think of the dictator in the Philippines that stole Japanese gold found by a Filipino. He fled the country and moved to Hawaii helped by the U.S. You can bet the CIA helped him move his gold for him. In a lawsuit against him the victims of Filipinos won in Hawaii court but the ex president of the Philippines magically lost all of his gold which was billions. I think the video said the lawyer found some oil land in Texas he owned. So that was sold and a little money went to that billionaires victims in the Philippines. The funny thing is that that ex president dictator today has a son I think that ran or became president of the Philippines. It’s like oh they found some of that gold money to make his son a politician again. If you’re a lawyer and want to work with Asians the CIA probably could use you in some way.
You missed one point about looking after elderly parents. Elderly parents look after their grandkids, , so they are useful.
If they are willing/able to. I know some grandparents who want to be paid.
@@zuzanazuscinova5209they should get paid
The problem with illegal immigration is the don’t pay any salary deductions, like S.S. Which affects our seniors, Medicare… ect
I agree. Let's increase legal immigration.
I agree, MAKE IMMIGRATION LEGAL!
They also wire the money back to the nation they are from, and its worth a ridiculous amount there
There’s a certain satisfaction that can only come from hearing experts discuss the spectacular collapse of authoritarian/kleptocratic dictatorships.
😅
Well Russia is landlocked they lost their warm water ports.
... don't, get too smug. Our Elite Masters are All hard core, dedicated members of secret societies that have ALWAYS been preparing, planning, and predictively programming the populace. Things WILL turn to shit, because it's been planned. But, HAVE NO FEAR-!!! Yeah, RIGHT ...
And colapsing of the Western civilization because of its decadence and degradation.
As a person who was born in such a system, it is music to my ears to know that all of them will be gone within our lifetime. The type of system which is rooted in the darkest desires to control and feel grandiosity by exploiting all sorts of dehumanising tools should die. Russia and China are over and will never ever be any sort of power again. The only question is how many months or years, but certainly in our lifetime
I hope this will clear up age discrimination in the workplace.
Soylent Green. The elderly will be beaten, boiled and turned into fertilizer. 🤣🤪
1:13:13 I think if you live in a country and you are a perm resident or citizen then identity yourself as the NATION FIRST then ethnic group - “American of Asian/Chinese ethnicity” to promote unity and loyalty we need to get better at this. 👍🏻
I’m seventy and the same things were being said. We were facing Viet Nam, Watergate and the Cold War. There are no “right times” to have kids.
Never have kids during wartime. Foolish and stupid move. When we are in peace time and plentiful with a strong economy, then we must bare more children. Now is certainly not the time.
You skipped the issue of the red pill. Men are tired of getting ripped off via divorce. A smarter man is going to realize that getting married only to have it fail and end up paying alimony and child support is no longer an option.
I'm saddened to see that most comments on here are bots. Jordan, been a fan since before the Jordan Harbinger Show - sad that the haters didn't support you at the beginning. Happy to see you are doing well and have excellent guests. You've truly gone global, brother!
I usually think any user name followed by 4 numbers is a bot
@@chrisrageNJthe 4 numbers is like a user name, introduced by TH-cam. 😊
You're so wrong
@@theflamingone8729yeah I’m not a bot and I have 4 numbers lol 😭
@@Clickwrap Hmm.....exactly what a bot would say.. 🤔
Finally an Interview that was very intelligent, that fellow knows as much as most
Over 10% of Vietnam casualties were helicopter crew members, and most of those were the door gunners that protected the helicopter, its crew, and its transports, from their exposed position. The average lifespan of a door gunner on a Huey in Vietnam was just two weeks
My God.
Citation needed for that!
Among the survivorof the Viet conflict was a friend of my brother, Armit Tilgner. He survived untold number of ctashes as a helicopter piiot only to die after the war in an accident as pilot of a cargo helicopter. He received a belated medal of honor from Sen. John Kerry decades later when it was discover he was shot down more than any
othe pilots.
Update to this older video: China is now selling lots of cars overseas. I think this is one of their goals, to export growth rather than relying on domestic consumption. This is related to the discussion around 59:00.
The world may not be completely falling apart *today* but it is most certainly starting to and will only get worse over time. Look at our water supply, look at the rate of top soil destruction, look at the rate of deforestation and fish stock collapse, look at the natural disasters wiping out our food crops. There are many signs that we’ve broken the ecosystem our society relies on, and collapse is imminent in the next few decades. Many people are rightly choosing not to introduce more people to the suffering that is our soon to be present.
Education and birth control are key to reducing poverty and hunger.
Having a child that you can not provide for yourself is cruel and irresponsible.
Countries and corporations want excess births for access to cheap labor.
Forget it. Education and birth control are not going to change poverty. There will always be some level of poverty. Poverty is dependent on the economic system . The lands ability to produce food. And with education? If everybody is a doctor, lawyer or engineer, doctors lawyers and engineers will be poor. The masses cant all be educated professionals. There is ditch digging, garbage collection, farming , all kinds of service jobs and plenty of people who dont want school above basic literacy and loathe the idea of college. And they shouldn't have to. Everyone needs a certain amount of land to be self sufficient. THEN there will be no poverty unless there's a drought or flood. And it's not a high birth rate industries want, its women's liberation.....supposedly. tjay way they keep women working jobs and paying taxes. Thats why they promote abortion, lgbt, promiscuity and go as far as to teach women that they cant " be FREE" without a job, abortion and easy divorce. They define freedom that way. It's a scam.
@@deborahdean8867wise words. Opportunity" was the key word imparted by my last machine tool OCC faculty view share
USA had huge amount land and access to sea is just that the land is privately owned for profit by very wealthy individuals. Singapore made owning land only temporary so that cost of living wouldn't keep increasing because of speculation.
Regarding the possible fracturing in China, considering the fact that their media is so controlled that a good portion of the population doesn’t even know it’s capital is under water because no bad news is allowed, and it’s officially illegal to show sadness in public, on top of the crazy surveillance they have, AND the social credit scores, it would be very hard for them to pull that off.
Great conversation fellas, thank you for being so articulate and factual ❤
140mn in russia is still lot of people with couple million moved out. Interesting to see this decade how it fairs against japan ~120mn now also slowly declining but which declines faster. By all logic japan or korea profile country decline should be faster as living costs go up faster due to import dependency of everything needed in daily life.
First, no one knows how many people are there in Russia & China, because local authorities are inflating numbers to get more finance from central government. Second, those who leave are the most productive people of the nation. Big difference! Also, compared to Japanese, Russians are already poor and getting even poorer is really something....
I'd say Russia declines faster than Japan. Japan has known that this demographic collapse is coming, and has been trying to do what it can to fix it. Has it worked? Not entirely, but it is at least doing something. Meanwhile Russia's life expectancy is lower and it is busy throwing all of its young men to be slaughtered in Ukraine.
Japan has been adapting to the decline since the 90s and is still a rich country actively trying to raise its birth rate. It will long outlast Russia.
Such a foolish war ..@@CrazyYurie
you're forgetting the demographics of those leaving - look at us, we had a bunch of boomers retire (or die) due to COVID... and now unemployment is at historical lows. Imagine taking out 2 million prime age workers all at once - we would be in the toilet. Russia had both happen and one thing is certain, the Russian Empire is never coming back.
I had 5 children.
We live on one income
All our vehicles are Old, but paid for.
Our income has not gone up , in fact, we made 40k less last year while all prices in stores and with private services has gone up. We seem to be looking at loosing our farm.
In the US this could begin to be remedied if we fixed tax policy. But we have just cut taxes on the wealthy, and that directly tracks with stagnation in wage growth. People cant afford childcare, housing, and so on. That is trickling up and now professional, like Jordan says, drs. lawyers, Tech workers, cannot afford kids...but no we just keep funneling more money to the wealthy.
I don’t care what experts say, everyone everywhere knows there’s far too many people. All the environmental factors that life (animal and human) on earth depends on are becoming so degraded. Life for many will become a daily struggle.
yep. so much truth here. but a falling population may be, ultimately, the only thing that saves this planet that we live on. Just keeping it real.
Many countries in Europe have 1.2 children this lower than replacement of the parents. These demographics spells decline in most countries
Instable isn't a word. You're looking for unstable. Thanks for the show. Go depopulation!
Its a play on instability. Don't be a language absolutist. Heck, don't be an _anything_ absolutist.
@@mENTALdRIFTERI was also going to comment about instable not being a word, but I'm glad I didn't now. To be honest, though, the play on the word "instability" isn't obvious.
There's no wordplay here. Just poor morphology.
@@spencerburke 'poor' mechanistically, sure, but 'poor' as a value statement regarding their decision, absolutely not unless your view of the English language is the same as your view of the French language, which itself should be a self-obvious contradiction to any serious linguist.
@@mENTALdRIFTER Not sure what you are trying to say there. Lack of coherence. 'Instable' is simply poor by any metric. Especially aesthetically.
This guy has no idea what it's like to be a poor ,used up , Worn out , Blind , Arthritic , Exhausted Worker when he says he wants people in their 50s and 60s to keep going in with it til it kills them before their time... People like him makes wonder where the Love of God goes....
Awesome and concise conversation.
I don’t if I would call it concise but definitely awesome!
@@pabis6817❤❤❤❤
Thanks for this guest. I'm familiar with Nich Eberstadt and Peter Zeihan and their work on population demographics but Schurman was new to me. Very impressed with his analysis.
Dr. Jordan Peterson has been talking about for years. Good Job!
Of course let's just tap dance around the real problems. Starting a family is too expensive, no one trusts anybody, housing too expensive, we could all lose our job tomorrow but we should still have kids...😂
Without heavy government subsidies such as free daycare, healthcare, etc. not many people are gonna have kids
Exactly, young adults are scared to get married because in some states you own half of the spouses debts...even after divorce.😢
This was a good topic, but I do disagree with raising the retirement age in America. The way I see it there should be two adjustments .one lift the cap on people who contribute to Social Security. second they should raise the amount a person on Social Security can earn. A lot of people drawing Social Security also have a job. but they are limited on how much they can earn they make too much money they lose benefits.
This is a good idea. I will retire in 3 years and for 2 years after that, I can only work part time since I am supposed to retire in 5 years. My sister stops paying into SS by July.
Retirement should become optional, not mandatory. People fade at different rates. I was forced into retirement 12 years ago, but now, at age 77 would love to have work, but I am too old to be employed, so if I work it will only be as self-employed. I would love to be a contributing member of the economy, but the system strongly discourages it.
There's also a big difference between being a 6o-year-old brick layer and a 60-year-old computer analyst or lawyer. Sure, the latter might feel like continuing on--unless they meet with age discrimination, which is rampant, at least in the U.S. A lot of 60+ professionals in the U.S. find it almost impossible to find another job, especially a professional one. We're presumably too expensive, in terms of salary/health care costs, and too slow to learn new technologies. As for the brick layer? I'm sure his back and joints are shot by now. So asking him to work a few more years is cruel and inhumane.
Our consumption expectations are higher also. Houses have been getting bigger, cars are more sophisticated, people expect to travel and take vacations, education is more expensive, more sophisticated medical care, more entertainment, more restaurants, more clothes.
All in all, people need more money for the lifestyle they expect to live. And, frankly, fewer children is an effective way to reduce expenses
US life expectancy has started to decline
US has also been put on a caution list to travel to by other nations.
Hard times make strong men
Strong men make good times
Good times make weak men
Weak men make hard times
FYI. All 8 billion people could fit into Texas at the rate of about 48 people per acre.
So what! It’s not about space but about the resources the earth has left. I can fit everyone in my neighborhood into my house. That does not mean that it’s a good idea lol.
To make your food only few hundred squarte meters is needed, if add pasture for meat animals, space for few hundreds poplar trees to warm your house, mere few thousends meters are need per household. People may work for a living for few weeks per year? But none goverment and corporation want that. For them? We are just work/military cattle
I don't understand why anyone would willingly live in Texas, let alone 8 billion.
Words:
Unstable? Yes! Instability? Yes! Instable?... No.
Well,someone did notice it!
@@sreckobrzin8534 I wonder why the thumbnail still says instable.
@@jenaogirl because it is a real word.
@jgalt308 In science, engineering, and technology, it is used in certain exceptions, but it is not interchangeable with unstable in common conversation.
@@jenaogirl What does instable mean in English?
Meaning of instable in English
not solid and firm and therefore not strong, safe, or likely to last: The country is hoping to move on after going through a difficult and instable period.Aug 2, 2023
INSTABLE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
Most of what he’s saying is exactly what I’ve heard before though. Especially his stats. From several other sources. Crazy…how these guys talk so apocalyptically about these other countries and never mention anything about the US. It’s all about resources, I guess.
The US has the advantage on every other country in the world in basically every conceivable way. Our biggest threat is ourselves.
No. It's about more than resources. It's about nations positions and dispositions and a range of factors relative to the challenges they face. Some have the capacity to weather their economic and demographic challenges based on their fexibility due to underlying social, cultural, political and economic features and policies while others, whose population or political class are in rigid denial of said challenges and/or have no immigration programs or fewer attractions, are facing a future that's significantly more grim. 16:17
@@Waverlyduli💯
It shouldn't be called "geriatric pregnancies" , unless a woman is having her baby over 60 years old. And, they aren't just being able to have children at 40 something just because of science. It has more to do with being healthy, and eating well. I have had 6 children from the age of 20 to 45. In fact, my last pregnancy and birthing was my easiest. Mostly because I knew what to expect which helped me stay calm. A little science was there since I did need a slight episiotomy to aid in the birth.
I believe that the discussion was about having first pregnancy and child in a woman's forties. This is often quite challenging.
You are wrong. Anyone over 30 is elderly when it comes to having babies. Primagravida means 1st pregnancy. They used to call women 27 and over ELDERLY primagravidas. These doctors have been LYING to women. They act like if you"re older, don't worry they can pull you through. Meanwhile we have the highest maternal mortality rate in the world. And that's totally forgetting the consequences of abortion and years of chemical birth control. It's best to have kids between 15 and 30.
@@alexbaidak2475 It depends on overall health status. Pregnancy is a stress of the physical system, but not an undue one in the absence of hypertension, renal or heart disease, respiratory insufficiency, cancer or autoimmune disease.
It's a medical definition.
@@Gaperina anyone, ANYONE, over 35 is considered a high risk pregnancy, for a reason.
Please keep making your fabulous timestamps!! ❤❤❤❤❤
Love your podcast and your quests!
I live in EU and i noticed that in my city Russian migrants dramatically grew up in number. All of them are young families with children or young people. Your guest makes sense.
Where do you live?
As billy connelly said aw a feel much better im going to be killed by a nice convencinal weapon
Wouldn't give Biden trump or putin tbe remote control for my tv never mind the red button
those might be russian speaking ukrainians who live in the east ukraina the whole steppe area is melting pot of nations just like Russia
This is before the Ukraine Russo conflict, but I used to live out in Montana and there was a sizable population of Russian immigrants who didn’t really speak English, kinda kept to themselves, and were known for growing cucumbers and selling them at the local farmer markets. They also had a bakery. Cucumbers and baked goods were top-notch.
Meaning of instable in English
not solid and firm and therefore not strong, safe, or likely to last: The country is hoping to move on after going through a difficult and instable period.4 days ago
INSTABLE | definition in the Cambridge English Dictionary
I have never wanted to have kids because ever since I was a kid I saw people raising kids and they did not look happy and always seemed stressed. No thank you.
Universe 25 comes to mind when I hear about population collapse.
I don't understand how this hasn't been raised by more of these pundits.
th-cam.com/video/7CXj0AGuh4c/w-d-xo.html
People in China don't want to by Chinese cars? I suspect BYD and others would disagree with you.
Regarding Manufacturing in China. According to Statista, value added from manufacturing is projected to increase at a healthy pace through 2028. In 2023 83% of manufacturers reported a 10-30% shortfall in their labor requirements. The jobs are there, young people just don't want them. The reasons given are poor workplace environment, wages are low without overtime, and young people feel the work is beneath them. A view that is very similar to the view held by young people in the West.
Mind you, China has never owned Taiwan, so it is wrong to say that they want it back. They may well want Taiwan, but it would be a new territory for them.
Is Hawaii a new territory of .. 😂😂
The government on the island Taiwan is The Republic of China formed in 1911, who rules Whole China inclusive Taiwan. So China owned Taiwan. 1949 The People's Republic of China has taken over The Republic of China and got the whole China inclusive Taiwan as its Territory like the The Republic of China had taken over the Qing Dynasty.
@@greatsky8226 Communist China has never had Taiwan. If they invade it they are conquerors, invaders, colonizers.
@@greatsky8226The Government of Taiwan is a government in exile and the rightful ruler of all China. All they have to do is outlast the CCP and then China can reunite under democratic rule.
Yes it is part of china and has been. Plus, they are chinese. Not Japanese, not Korean.
Instable is not a word. The root word is stable. The opposite is unstable. And the abstract noun for unstable is instability.
poisoning listed as one of the death causes in Russia is meant poor quality of liquor.
39:40 poisoning is about bad quality alcohol, in Russian statistics it's usually used in that sense
There's significant Chinese immigration into Siberia, an area it has always claimed, partially or wholly.
Supremely interesting. Glad to see demographics are becoming popular topic. Was starting to hear WAY too many people chiming in unison about overpopulation and the "end of the world". Really awesome informative show
It's quite the opposite. That's why the world needs to manage migration in a way that is humane and with resources and not in a dehumanzing way.
Chinese cars are all over Europe. The "halt-and-catch-fire" problem is common to EVs (so far), and decreasing from minor incidence to almost zero globally.
Primary problem in US is kids are either seen as unaffordable or an inconvenience to the personal goals of a couple.
Those 1 percenters saying that they can't afford kids are a different cohort from your average truck driver with his two, three or even four little ankle biters! So, is it 'selfishness' ? Is it cost of living? Is it just fearfulness?
Well, most people somehow manage to spend whatever their income is. So the one percenter might feel that indeed that they can't have children without changing their current rich lifestyle and they don't want to. Everybody can 'afford' children, in fact, statistics tell you that income and number of children are negatively correlated. Rich people don't want children, poor people end up just having them :P
@@Eikenhorst
Many Afghan families have had to sell their children, especially young girls, just to make ends meet. 😢 You can thank Joetato's Pull-Out Policy for that.
@@Eikenhorstyeah, but poor people with kids will remain poor. Sucks to get old and be completely broke.
11:55 "I don't see a lot of immigration to Russia" Try looking harder. In 2015-2022 Russia had a net positive migration flow of 1,7 million or about 220 thousand more people every year moved to Russia than emigrated out of it. The war and conscription affected the mood and the net migration fell from a 2021 record high of 430k down to a 2022 record low of only 62k, but still even with war there are more people immigrating into Russia (mostly from poorer ex USSR countries) than there emigrating from Russia. Pretty easy info to find for anyone interested in facts.
The first and main issue is the idea parents become burdensome to their children. If you took better care of your self today you might be less disabled later. Once generations get their head staright and understand that families will do far better by taking care of each other vs selling them to an old folkshome later in life. This is pure indoctrination and it works.
Monsanto infusing literal industrial poison into every input in the food supply makes it a lot harder for normal people to take care of themselves, especially as the cost of real food goes parabolic
The principle that makes life worth living, and sickness less likely, is taking personal responsibility for MY health. Own your outcome! Eat on the peripery of the grocery story. Avoid the plague of fast food.
@@terranceramirez4816 while true you absolutely can refrain from eating processed foods.
@@terranceramirez4816okaaay. Take away the fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides and insecticides and you will really see your food bills go parabolic! You don't know what you are talking about.
Thank goodness the population will decline at some point. The size of the world does not increase as population increase exponentially. If we continue to grow the way we have been going, we will destroy ourselves and the earth anyway. I will much rather deal with the problems of a decreasing population than an exponentially growing population.
What part has the student loans played in making college graduates unable to have families.
I know several people who would love to get married and have kids, but their student loans are too great for them to consider marriage and children.
All loans are fraud.FRNotes are a debut based feat currency.
It's by design. TPTB wrote a plan to bring down America in the 50s by destroying the family, increasing racial division, the long march through the institutions, the gradual increase in corporate monopolies, and increasing taxation and the loss of private property to foreign investors and corporations. I would say they largely succeeded, we have maybe another 10 years before we're fully controlled by AI enhanced spyware and cameras like China is now with their Social Credit Score. Why do you think they want self driving trucks? That eliminates the human element in the supply chain. He who controls the food controls the people. Look at how they treated the truckers in Canadistan
I find that hard to believe. More like an excuse. Student loans can be deferred, monyhlyvincome reduced, and if you want to you can default and theyll take your tax refunds to pay it off..........and if you have kids that can be alot of money. Drag it out till you get old, amd you can get disability likely and have the rest forgiven.
It's not the student loans. It's a lack of jobs paying a livable wage.
@@briandbeaudin9166 If people didn't have student loans, do you think that they might be able to live better on the income that they receive?
AI may soon replace some "desk jobs," but not blue collar jobs. I cant imagine an AI robot that can build a new house or install solar onto an existing one.
BTW as a result, I also see AI disproportionately disaffecting woman more than men, as more women complete college and prefer white collar jobs over blue collar jobs. More importantly I don't see that changing, as most blue collar jobs are physically demanding, are often dirty and have historically been lower-paying (although, "that" may be changing as well). Quality labor is hard to find in the San Francisco Bay Area where I live, and has begun to pay much better than in the past...
The 1%ers who are not having children are, for the most part, our 'brain trust' who we desperately need to reproduce. OMG! The movie 'Idiocracy' has predicted our future.
Funny how Elon started showing off his 27 kids 😂 maybe he understands something about demographics
Elon doesn't ever need to care about money, but he's still an idiot.
AI is coming. Most people's IQ won't be able to compete.
Brilliant conversation.
Chinese youth can spell English a hell of a lot better than Jordan Harbinger even if unstable! And we have known that population levels out/grows/shrinks for a long time, per specific chapters like affluence, extreme poverty, etc. I am SO sick of everyone acting like their schtick is brand new! Truth is, they just arrived on the scene & its new to THEM.
So discussing current trends is a big no-no for you then?
Raw population growth isn't everything. Take Africa. Theyve had high population growth there for hundreds of years. However, they've had high mortality rates to go with it, and still do.
Yay if they extend our lifespan I can work like a slave ,to retire at 95
I'll always savor every last moment be damned.
Excelent comments. Kind of open one eyes and see things in a much clear way and makes so much sense.
First time for me to listen to you but not the last time
Is refreshing to listen to my opinion smart conversation and not politics
Thank you very much for this conversation
Started to see things in a diferent way👍🏻
In conclusion: Society does not invest in young people enough (young adults included). I wonder if this could be solved if investors could invest in families akin to how they invest in stocks?
Great analysis! Scary, but thorough! I am 66 and still working, just not sure how long I can continue to work? We have to help people be healthier not just to live longer, but live stronger. I don't want to sit and rust over, but....
People ynderstimate the economic and psychological effect of a declining population. The Japanese are doing it tough. They have forests outside Tokyo were people go to kill themselves. Property prices in the country are collapsing.
So what? Once life becomes more affordable maybe people will start having kids again. The population has ballooned over the past century.
The decision to have children as a farmer, is a question of how many surviving children do I need to work the farm as I age or retire. They cost little and pull their own weight at about 10.
As a modern parent, the kid is a huge expense until 25 or older, and I don't need any to retire or work the farm.
There's no selfish reason to have children after farms.
The hope and joy of new life and discovery.
@@Gaperinaif you can't afford them there is no hope and little joy.
Malthus had it precisely reversed on the social and economic the relationship between population growth.
It's two-way really, population growth could advance technology sure (more brain-power). And advanced technology raise "resource usage efficiency limit" or "soft malthusian limit". But you can't deny the hard fact that people need food to live, and food is grown on limited resource (limited land).
People bashed Malthus so much because they assume there will always be another green revolution if we hit the ceiling, a technological revolution which no one can really predict in advance (in the 1900 who thought we could fly like birds). I think the current trend of falling population is demonstrating instead the indirect effect of malthusian limit.
Things get pricey relative to wage/income these days and people don't want to have children, both are invisible hand of market force trying to balance the finiteness of resource extraction and usage after factoring in our technological advances. It's invisible hand trying to enforce a form of malthusian limit, though a soft one.
@@hikashia.halfiah3582 Only a tiny fraction of the land that can used for food production is in use, and it being "finite extraction" is irrelevant to any discussion about politics or economics .
@@hikashia.halfiah3582things got pricey relative to wage/income because our governments are addicted to printing money.
What----------the population will grow in correlation with its food supply? More food-less people? Less food, more people? what?
@@hikashia.halfiah3582the higher cost of living may have to do with p privatization of land
People can afford kids if they want them. But you can't afford kids if you want to have high discretional spending.
RFK has a very different opinion on Ukraine on the Tucker Carlson interview. Interesting to hear different perspectives.
Very true. NATO expanded up to the front yard of Russia with the help of the US. I guess the US won’t allow Russia to build military bases in TJ
@@lukediega5841🎯🎯🎯 exactly
John Mishima is the man to listen to regarding the war in Ukraine.
Also, what is the impact of the democrats' inflation production act, with it pushing the cost of paying the interest on the debt above what is paid for national defense, having on the abilities of the current generation to consider having children?
Id compare it to 1973 event, some kind of economic crisis(oil), more importantly big dip in births, eg japan and australia.
Simple problem to solve. REPEAL the federal income tax AMENDMENT and the federal reserve act. US debt to the federal reserve bank needs to be nullified. Then we can build back better.
I thought life expectancy in the US was also going down?
COVID skew and fent. So yes average is moving down
In my mum and dads day they werre married bairned all before 18-19yrs old,
@@colinmcclymont
Yes, but they didn't need a college degree just to get an entry-level job. All you needed back then was a high school education.
as long as the NRA-connected corporations are profiting.
"INSTABLE" IS NOT A WORD
I see a drone war evolution taking place where loiter weapons search for targets and cluster weapons break static defences. This will lead to remotely fought wars?
While I agree there . . . That works only for frozen conflicts
If a country wants to take territory, claim it as their own, or to take the resources of said territory, then they will still need Infantry too bolden/strengthen their claim
Which means that, unless there is a way to relegate Infantry to a robot, you still will need bodies on the front line to ensure taken territory isn’t lost
The children who won’t be born will never have to face a future of continuing environmental devastation, loss of biodiversity, of economic and global tensions and uncertainties, the probable spread of nuclear weapons, diminishing natural resources of all kinds and the likelihood of crop failures and food shortages brought about by climate change.
As a population's standard of living rises it has been shown their people have fewer children, especially in India where a landmark study was conducted. Very informative perspectives in this session. Was glad to catch it.
Impressive discussion , gentlemen !
There are a lot of things about Asia that this guy doesn't get, and I wish Jordan had prompted further discussion on them. Like, people retiring in China at 50 or whatever he said, but then no discussion of the crap money they get, so when they "retire," haha, they're just being pushed out for younger people who will work for cheaper, so they have to have, by 50, figured out a shop or a restaurant, what have you, to eke by.
Most people would be surprised by the number of Samsung (for example, not picking on them) employees in more developed South Korea who know going in at 23 or 25 that they need an exit strategy by 40 or 45 (a lot of times creating a company that will make a tech device that Samsung or another biggie will buy/license). So, it's not that they're "retiring" and sipping cocktails by the Yangzi River. Jordan... come on... you know about this stuff.
Excellent point.
@@jperin001 Overall, it was still an excellent episode, but I felt there were a few points that were glossed over without an understanding of the region (not intentional and not even that he didn't know about them, just they could have been addressed).
@@brek5 Agree. It would be a nice touch if podcasters revisited previous episodes on the regular to drill down even deeper on topics with consideration to valid points in comments.
Their so-called retirement money is about 16 bucks last I checked, per month.
He mentioned dependency ratios and the culture of providing for elders that is rampant in the East (and the fact that due to the one child policy in China, sons and grandsons tend to take care of their elders less than daughters and grand daughters). In Europe, parents are better off than their children since housing has become so expensive (along childcare and other stuff), while salaries stagnated for decades. The gall with which governments rail against couples that don't have children is baffling: raising a kid until college is astronomical, unless you make it fend for him/herself after he finishes middle school (more or less like my parents did with my sister and me, both GenXers).
I learn so much from you on your videos!! Thank you very much!! I only had one child myself, and she passed at 25 from walking pneumonia. My reason for one child was because I was poor. Now that I'm not poor anymore,I'm too old to have more.
I would have loved to have more children!! I live in America on the east coast.
Very educational conversation,…Thanks!!!!….Subscribed!!!!!!.