California used to be a Republican stronghold, and Texas a democratic one. Vermont and Maine used to be so Republican they were the only two states that FDR never won in any of his four elections.
Pennsylvania has always been a swing state, it was only between 1992-2012 when it was considered a pretty reliably blue state even then the state was consistently close and on occasions elected republicans to offices such as Pat Toomey as their senator
Pennsylvania is red. The media just wants you to think it's a swing state. Eastern PA isn't even that blue anymore. Western PA is all red now except Pittsburgh.
This isn’t all uncommon. Florida isn't a swing state either now, voting for Trump by over 13-points in 2024. California used to be a swing state, with Ronald Reagan being a two-term governor there. People move. Cultures change. Different issues become relevant.
Florida is the story no one is talking about. My Jaw was on the floor seeing Trump up as big as he was prior to the panhandle votes coming in to he tabulated. I said to my friend “they are going to call Florida before 9pm” and I don’t think I have ever seen that in my lifetime
Very true. Virginia was a Republican state, but it now leans Democratic. The one that stumps me is Colorado. Once reliably Republican, it is now solidly Democratic. Oddly, in my view, that change occurred when Colorado became a "mail-in ballot" state. No wonder Democrats are so anxious to see mail-in "voting" become the norm.
The parties also change. The Republicans have embraced MAGA, not great to try and define, and the Democrats have leaned more heavily to Progressivism rather than Liberalism. Just look at Biden's platform in the 90s vs. what he put together for his presidential campaign to see how that may speak to a different audience. Harris was first who seemed to actually put together a platform that could be competitive, but the messaging was extremely progressive in the ads and how the media presented it.
Seems that Ohio has followed the same path as Missouri - a former swing state that ended up as a solid Republican stronghold. Missouri lost their swing status in 2008 and Ohio lost it in 2020.
@@noahbarron6985this was building since 2021, when our Governor won by 17 points in 2017 only won by 5 in 2021, so whoever the Democrat nominee is next year, it’s not gonna be an easy victory
@@nicasioourion Because the deindustrialisation of Ohio wasn't immediate. A simple chart of unemployment in Ohio shows you unemployment rose from 4% in 1990s to 6.5% in 2005 during the economic boom, then shot to 11% in the 2008 crash.
As an Ohioan I think we leaned really far Republican for Trump, I think if the Republicans put someone who isnt a MAGA Republican, Ohio will fall back into the battleground state.
Not after losing Mahoning and Trumbull counties as permanent ultra red counties. Declining Democrat support in Cuyahoga and Summit county. Lake, Lorain, Portage, Stark going reliably red, plus such a hole to dig out of with so many rural counties going 90 plus percent GOP. It’s red and only getting redder. It will never go full West Virginia but will go closer to Indiana with time.
@@paulh2116 I guess time will tell but dont forget that just 12 years ago Ohio voted for Barack Obama, so I dont think its out of the question for ohio to go blue if the republicans revert to GOP candidates like Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, instead of Maga candidates like JD Vance, and Vivek Ramaswamy
Because I personally would vote for an independent before I vote for Chris Cristie, and I think that voting independent is no better then throwing your vote in the trash.
She really didn’t. Basically the gist is the Ohio Democratic Party is weak and ineffective causing low democratic voter turnout esp in places like northeast Ohio coupled with lack of outreach to smaller/rural communities in the south. Also the republicans in Ohio have such a choke hold on this state because of gerrymandering and other issues that cause voter morale and turnout to be quite low
I live in Ohio. I don’t think it’s because people from Texas and people like that moved in i just feel like the state overall is more conservative. People are changing their ways if that makes sense
The amount of people moving from Texas is far too negligible to make an impact on how the state votes, especially since most people who live in rural areas have been living there for a very long time. I think the change is due less so to the Republicans being more desirable and more because the Democratic Party has swung hard to the left in the last few decades. By far the most unpopular issues are the racial, sexual, and transgender ideologies. This is by far the biggest reason why Ohio votes so bright red. The Democratic Party of 2000 put far less emphasis on these issues.
@@leetballerxxxx3564I said the same thing. As democrats became more nutty, they’ve become less competitive. If they continue down this path, republicans will flip some reliable democrat states. If you look at the margins in 2024…it came close with a few.
People vote for their interests. A rural or suburban Ohioan really doesn't care about the Democrat party policies on ideology and gender and more about paying their mortgage and keeping egg inflation low. They don't care if the president owns a uterus or not and are very unenthusiastic about breaking records for the sake of breaking records. The Democrats made the mistake of thinking that's exactly what they care about. Because most of them are very privileged.
As a lifelong Ohio resident I'll tell you why it happened. Traditionally democrat union labor in Ohio flipped to be solidly Republican for Trump in 2016. Ohio lost a lot of jobs because of things like NAFTA and the 2000s were a hard time for the state. Trump's populist and protectionist platform in 2016 resonated with the blue collar workers of Ohio and a lot of union labor shifted. I also wouldn't say the Ohio is a solid Republican state. If the Democrats run a populist candidate who campaigns on bringing jobs back to middle America and Republicans ignore that, Ohio will flip again.
Different answer: the population of most of Ohio's cities has been decreasing for decades. Urban/rural residence is the single most reliable indicator of political affiliation in the US.
This was an interesting video. One reason it fascinating me was that we in Illinois have experienced the opposite phenomenon. Namely, we have gone from being a bellwether state to being the most Democratic state in the Midwest and one of the bluest states in the nation. In Illinois, large numbers of Republicans have fled the Land of Lincoln because of Democratic taxing policies, especially in the Chicago area. Your video is causing me to ask, "What has caused Democrats to leave Ohio?"
As an Alabamian currently living in Ohio for the last five years here’s the biggest reasons in my opinion. 1. Taxes Ohio especially after 2016 is one of the highiest tax burden states in the union where taxes are basically rough with the fact Ohioans don’t make as much money as maybe Illinois does. And the taxes don’t go to shit we don’t have any public infrastructure outside of highways and Ohio is already over policed. 2. Young people hate it here. Most young people don’t want to live in rural places. And most universities are in cities. Toledo Akron Cincinnati and Cleveland are all extremely mismanaged. They offer absolutely nothing to young people looking to move there and are extremely expensive. I’m a college student myself the exact demographic that is leaving Ohio the most but I live in Columbus our biggest and only growing city. Columbus basically only grows because of OSU which is one of the biggest universities in the nation and old people moving here. Columbus is wildly over policed so I don’t feel safe going out at night in fear of being attacked by the police. There isn’t any bars, art places, movie theaters that really cater to young people either. Columbus also is one of the most vehicle dependent places in the entire country and it has no rail and the highest level of vehicle accidents. This is in comparison to my home state of Alabama which even in my tiny town I grew up in there is more night life and things to do as a young person than the 15th biggest metro on earth. Mostly because it isn’t over policed. 3. It is still part of the rust belt. And Ohio home prices are among the fastest growing in the nation because of zero restrictions placed by the state government. This in turn leads to higher renting prices too and with lower than average wages for starting jobs more young people leave. Columbus was able to avoid this some by not being a city built on manufacturing but on transportation so it didn’t really get as affected by the manufacturing collapse. Basically Ohio screws over young people at every step so young people leave. When I graduated high school here in 23’ most of my graduating class left the state. I’m only going to complete my bachelor’s here before I leave
States like West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arkansas are highly Republican and have low taxes. Yet, they have lagged behind the overall population growth in the US for several years. In fact, West Virginia and Mississippi are 2 out of only 3 states to have a net *LOSS* in population from 2010-2020. You comment is causing me to ask, "If low taxes are so important, why aren't more people flocking to low tax, Republican states?"
@@derekrequiem4359 Both Indiana and Tennessee are Republican states which tout their low taxes, and many Illinois residents have moved to one of those two states. As a result, Illinois was the third state to lose population in the last decade.
@@EltonHolmes-mx5bg I thank you for the well-thought out reply. Illinois also is experiencing a "brain-drain." Many of our state's best-and-brightest high school graduates are going to college outside of the Prairie State, with many of them not wanting to come back to Illinois.
Nice video, but I would like to add around the 1 minute mark. When it shows the 2020 election results map it shows SD voting for Biden. (just wanted to point out the mistake)
@@GriftinBobbySunflowerregardless of whether it ends up working or not, Trump's vow to fight against outsourcing is extremely popular with working class voters. Working class voters generally see mass immigration as a ploy to replace them with 3rd world laborers who will work for cheaper than they will. They also hate the idea of amnesty since they see it as a scheme to import so many foreigners that you can change the electorate so that their votes don't have to matter anymore. I would say they're pretty much right on both fronts. The working poor are also some of the most hostile voters to tax increases. "Tax the rich" often doesn't resonate with the working poor because they realize full and well that the rich business owners and managers aren't going to respond to tax hikes by just accepting being less rich, they're going to start slashing jobs and the working poor will always be first on the chopping block. "Take from the rich and give to the poor" also doesn't resonate very well with the working class because many of them don't want a hand out, they want a dignified job that they can make a living from and they seem to see that the government doesn't tax the rich and give to the poor, it taxes everyone and gives to its cronies. Then there's the Democratic Party's radical left shift on social issues and identity politics. Wealthy, overeducated snobs from San Francisco or Manhattan might virtue signal about having a transgender child and their friends might coo at how progressive & brave they are but if you go to a small town in a rural area & tell some guy who works as a mechanic that his 12 year old daughter is now going to have to compete against boys in school sports & that she's also going to have to shower & change around naked boys in the school locker room simply because those boys claim to identify as girls he's going to rightfully look at you like you're out of your mind. Apart from the crazy trans stuff the Democratic party has made it abundantly clear that they care far more about racial or identity-based grievances than about class. The Democrats are also seen as far more globalist while working class Americans tend to be very nationalistic & patriotic. On environmental policies the Democrat's proposals are also hostile to working-class voters. Making it impossible to mine for minerals, harvest timber or drill for oil & gas doesn't exactly net you many friends with workers in those industries. Rural Americans who have to drive a lot absolutely hate the idea of carbon taxes nor is the idea of migrating to electric cars at all feasible for people who live in rural areas or just about anyone who rents rather than owns the place where they live. The top three vehicles sold in America every year are pickup trucks. Those trucks burn gas & telling working folks that you're going to jack up fuel taxes to punish them for the sin of carbon emissions doesn't appeal to them. The working poor also spend a much higher portion of their household budget on things like electricity and increasing the price of electricity & natural gas in order to reduce carbon emissions hurts the poor far more than it hurts the rich. The working poor are also angry about inflation. Wealthier people might not notice that the price of eggs or a gallon of gas has gone up and maybe they've gotten pay raises to keep up with the inflation but this hasn't been the case for a lot of working poor.
@@danman6431 The tax cuts that increase the debt and deficits that will hurt our children and grandchildren. The one that disproportionately helped boost corporate profits but didn't pass down to consumers as they raised prices anyway.
I think it is too soon take Ohio’s thrown away as the bellwether state. I think we are already starting to see that 2020 was anomaly in terms of presidential elections. It was correct in 2016 and 2024.
Once upon a time, Illinois always went for the winning candidate (except 1976). That all changed in the new millennium. What Ohio taketh, Illinois taketh away.
I think it’s mainly a Trump thing specifically. Without Trump, who knows how close Ohio will be. It’s still fairly bipartisan these days, for example the Senate race could go either way. Also I think another reason is that Appalachia used to vote democratic until the 2000s, when the democratic party basically moved on from them
I grew up in Mahoning County. Mahoning was the bluest county in the state. When I first started voting, I basically didn't get to vote in local elections because you couldn't run as a Republican so the general election winners were all decided in the primary on the Democrat ballot. There was no way I was asking for a Democrat ballot even at 18. The first Republican to win a local election was the auditor in 2015, pre-Trump. He was elected because people were sick of the corruption. He had a lucrative career on his own and was unlikely to be bought because of it which made him trustworthy. That's actually very similar to what we see with Trump though, outside and no need for the swamp. As the last 10 years have gone by, more and more local elections are going Republican. WKBN has been covering it a lot since the results of the 2024 election. Almost all local offices went red. You're even seeing local politicians switch parties, not because they've changed their values but because being an R isn't an automatic loss anymore and people can claim their real party. And having grown up a Republican in the county I will say, there's always been a lot of us. We just kept our mouths shut because it wasn't popular. Many also voted consistently on Democrat Primary ballots for more of a say in local elections. We also finally fired Sherrod Brown. He has baffled me for 18 years. Every time he's up for election, every other state office will go Republican but Brown will win by a landslide. I've never understood it. He's clearly very far on the left, but people were obviously crossing party lines in droves to vote for him. I think voting him out is the biggest indicator that Ohio has indeed changed. Wkbn had a fantastic break down of every city and precinct in Mahoning (and I think Trumbull) comparing the number of votes in the 2020 and 2024 elections. It's fascinating. Only a handful of precincts outside the city of Youngstown went blue. I haven't lived in the county in over a decade (still have family there) but really found the breakdown intriguing.
I learned the proper pronunciation from a Tennessee based band called Tuatha Dea. Even they pronounced it wrong until someone kindly corrected them. Look up "Appalachia burning" 😊
I find it interesting that as soon as ohio lost its title, 2 of ohios neighbors took on its mantle. As much as it pains a ohioan to admit michigan continues our legacy. Also PA actually lets just talk about PA
I lived in Trumbull county most of my life (though I am currently in Cyprus). The area has been Democratic since FDR, but, before going to Cyprus, virtually all the political signs were for Trump. Also, Trump won Trumbull County in both 2016 and 2020.
The democratic party is losing the working class, and Ohio is a microchasm of that. It's not completely lost for them yet, but it will be in 10 years unless the party changes its platform dramatically
After that election the democrats have not just abandoned the working class the working class have abandoned them. Losing Iowa by 13, OH by 9. It’s the scale of the decline that should worry them.
Nice video but the Map of counties you showed had Mahoning and Columbiana county merged as one, which I don't think would matter except for the fact that you were highlighting Mahoning. Either way, great job!
Ohioian here. The other reasons are Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) has seen a decrease in population, whereas Columbus and the Central Ohio region has seen an explosion in population since the '90s. However, in the last census, the rural areas of Ohio have seen a decrease in population. Whereas Central Ohio (Columbus Metro Area) is continuing to grow and is very democratic except for the counties surrounding Franklin county (Columbus). And I dont know who will win tomorrow since I'm posting this the day before election day, but Ohio more than likely will become a swing state/ purple again in a couple years due to the declining rural population. And the population trends that I stated.
to the left of florida, iowa, texas... Ohio voted only 9 points to the right of the popular vote. In 2020, it voted 12 points to the right of the popular vote.
@@J7Handle Agreed, very blue states like NJ and NY moving a bit right and taking the national average with them does not mean that Ohio was somehow more in play for Kamala. By that logic MI, WI, and PA would have moved left vs 2020 even though they went from 1-3 pt Biden wins to 1-2 point Trump wins.
People are just shifting around. Just because a city or county loses population doesn’t mean someone left the state. They moved to another county to avoid higher taxes, property cost, schools or for better jobs, etc. Ohio population in 2000 was 11.36 million and 11.69 million in 2020. While nothing significant, especially with declining birth rates, I think most data out there suggest people just move around in the state. I believe it’s only “red” because of bat shit crazy democrat policy. We’ve seen it in other states as well and some population losses in big blue states. This 2024 election we’ve seen red states become more red and blue states also become more red. New Jersey had a 5 point difference. Even CA was a 10 point. While that is large, it should be larger. My point is Ohio is red because of stupid policies by democrats and nothing more. Once they become less stupid, it will return to a swing state. It’s that simple.
As an Ohioan, I don’t think Ohio is permanently red as we have voted for abortion and our senate race is very close. Personally I think the swing is because of Trump himself and it’s possible that Ohio will become a swing state again.
It's definitely moderately red at the minimum. Depending on if Sherrod Brown can win tomorrow, that will determine if Ohio officially becomes a red stronghold or not.
Ohio didn't vote for abortion, Ohio went centrist on abortion banning it after 22 weeks with medical exceptions, not like what Michigan did with allowing all abortions or Texas with only allowing abortions up to 6 weeks.
Native Ohioan here as well! Understand that social issues are going left, but foreign policy and economic policy are going HEAVY to the right. Ohioans have suffered the brunt of the manufacturing loss and drug problem. It's a permanent red state at this point. A lot of Democrats vote red on the Federal level, but blue on local.
Well, his VP pick this time is native Ohioan. I think it remains to see if JD Vance can 'succeed' most of Trump's political heritage 4 years from now. If so, I do see OH being 'red' a little longer at least, as there usually is a 'hometown warming' effect for presidential candidates (and even VP candidates to some extent).
It seems every state has gone through some changes and some more surprised than others. Florida is the same way. They used to be a swing state but now it's solid red and while Texas is a red state, at some point it's expected to become a swing state.
I like considering 'American Nations' and how the sub-nations factor into things. Trump appeals very strongly to Appalachians, but he also appeals to Midlanders, who find the current Urban Monoculture coming out of New England and California to be weird and gross. This is why Iowa also swung toward Trump so strongly. The upper Midwestern states are all the second stage of Yankeedom, founded by many people from New England. Pennsylvania meanwhile has the east side and Philadelphia, pushing it bluer, the same way Illinois has Chicago. Democrats don't much appeal to Midlanders, and until they do, they won't win the state.
@@eduardoandrade7846 Mas esse é justamente o conceito de "bellwether": é uma região que funciona como "termômetro" representativo da política do país. Minas Gerais fica encaixada entre o interior baiano, o eixo Rio-SP e o Centro Oeste, regiões com focos e necessidades totalmente diferentes, mas que formam uma síntese da realidade brasileira.
Ohio has been a Republican leaning state for many years now. Since 1990, Ohio has only voted for a Democrat governor once. Clinton and Obama had mass popularity, much like Sherrod Brown, but otherwise, Ohio has voted to the right of the nation for many decades.
1:58 Ohio has never been seen as a part of the “Blue Wall”, but is a battleground state just south of the “Blue Wall”. Pennsylvania (which for some reason wasn’t included here), Michigan, and Wisconsin are the main “Blue Wall” states-all three of which were won by Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024.
lol what are you talking about? ohios black population has grown by 25% since 2000. the black population has grown as a larger percentage of the overall population, as have hispanic and asian. more of them are voting republican just like white people.
Ohio was a Democrat stronghold for much of the 1980s despite voting for Reagan twice and Bush in 1988. Celeste was governor, Metzenbaum and Glenn were the Senators. Northeast Ohio was a manufacturing powerhouse. Steel, autos and tires were all made in Northeast Ohio and the UAW, USW and URW were all reliable Democrat voters. The tire factories closed and only Goodyear is headquartered in Akron. Steel left the Mahoning Valley. Chrysler isn't in Twinsburg anymore and Ford tore down a lot of the Brook Park engine plant Add to that the Democrat hostility to coal, natural gas and the white blue collar worker and Ohio has shifted. The same thing has happened to Pennsylvania outside of Philadelphia and it's suburban counties.
People have been off handedly talking about states like ohio and calling them bellweathers for the last 20 years or so. But traditionally states are not looked to for bellweather status. We traditionally talk about bellweather COUNTIES. Not states.
As an Ohioan, it’s a very blue collar working class state, our housing is affordable and our wages are fair. We do not want higher taxes, or many of the democrats policy’s, a lot of people have flipped parties to keep Ohio strong
OHIO's large cities has been Losing population and the state has grown about 0.5%. Younger people, college educated were the democrats helping to make it a swing state. With them gone, the state is in a sharp decline...intellectually and so on.
I live in cleveland and from what ive seen when i travel around, almost everyone outside the city seems to be hardcore red, and even in the blue counties where i live and the inner city, its either split or people dont care
0:33 “swing state” and “battleground state” absolutely can be used interchangeably. A swing state doesn’t just vote 10 points Republican one election and 10 points Democrat the very next election, lol. Swing states are always EXTREMELY close, being a near 50/50 split, thus why they swing to a different party each election, for the most part.
Imagine telling somebody in 2004 a candidate who won Ohio, Florida, and Iowa lost
Or that Texas would vote to the left of Ohio and Iowa lol.
Interesting times we're living in!
California used to be a Republican stronghold, and Texas a democratic one. Vermont and Maine used to be so Republican they were the only two states that FDR never won in any of his four elections.
Well that didn’t happen
Trump won Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Michigan
And he won the election
@@derekrequiem4359 texas just voted to the right
Yeah easy to lose with all that cheating
Pennsylvania: Look at me, I'm the new Ohio now
Pennsylvania has predicted the last 4 elections so it’s not too far off from that lol
Pennsylvania has always been a swing state, it was only between 1992-2012 when it was considered a pretty reliably blue state even then the state was consistently close and on occasions elected republicans to offices such as Pat Toomey as their senator
Ohio: Come back to me when you have had more Presidents from your state than I
Pennsylvania is red. The media just wants you to think it's a swing state. Eastern PA isn't even that blue anymore. Western PA is all red now except Pittsburgh.
If it goes full Ohio, MI, WI go full Ohio, every election is a done deal.
This isn’t all uncommon. Florida isn't a swing state either now, voting for Trump by over 13-points in 2024. California used to be a swing state, with Ronald Reagan being a two-term governor there.
People move. Cultures change. Different issues become relevant.
Florida is the story no one is talking about. My Jaw was on the floor seeing Trump up as big as he was prior to the panhandle votes coming in to he tabulated. I said to my friend “they are going to call Florida before 9pm” and I don’t think I have ever seen that in my lifetime
New York got closer than Florida
New Jersey was only won by 5 points by Harris, much closer than many Battleground states like Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Texas.
Very true. Virginia was a Republican state, but it now leans Democratic. The one that stumps me is Colorado. Once reliably Republican, it is now solidly Democratic. Oddly, in my view, that change occurred when Colorado became a "mail-in ballot" state. No wonder Democrats are so anxious to see mail-in "voting" become the norm.
The parties also change. The Republicans have embraced MAGA, not great to try and define, and the Democrats have leaned more heavily to Progressivism rather than Liberalism.
Just look at Biden's platform in the 90s vs. what he put together for his presidential campaign to see how that may speak to a different audience. Harris was first who seemed to actually put together a platform that could be competitive, but the messaging was extremely progressive in the ads and how the media presented it.
Seems that Ohio has followed the same path as Missouri - a former swing state that ended up as a solid Republican stronghold. Missouri lost their swing status in 2008 and Ohio lost it in 2020.
More like 2012 for Missouri. McCain only won that state by a margin of 0.13%, and it was the closest state that year.
It's crazy how NY is more of a swing state than Florida
@@noahbarron6985NJ was closer, only 5 compared to 16 in 2020
@@seanslawson98 Yeah, It's crazy how in such a short amount of time a lot can change.
@@noahbarron6985this was building since 2021, when our Governor won by 17 points in 2017 only won by 5 in 2021, so whoever the Democrat nominee is next year, it’s not gonna be an easy victory
I'm old enough to remember when Missouri was the quintessential swing state.
It started when a Democrat by the name of Bill Clinton signed NAFTA in 1993. The working class in Ohio never forgot that.
And then why did Ohio vote twice for him?
@@nicasioourion Because the deindustrialisation of Ohio wasn't immediate. A simple chart of unemployment in Ohio shows you unemployment rose from 4% in 1990s to 6.5% in 2005 during the economic boom, then shot to 11% in the 2008 crash.
The GOP in Congress also voted for it. Clinton sucks but blaming it exclusively on the Democrats is revisionist history.
Not just NAFTA, but also letting China into the WTO.
@@varsoo1 Ohio also voted twice for Obama.
As an Ohioan I think we leaned really far Republican for Trump, I think if the Republicans put someone who isnt a MAGA Republican, Ohio will fall back into the battleground state.
Not after losing Mahoning and Trumbull counties as permanent ultra red counties. Declining Democrat support in Cuyahoga and Summit county. Lake, Lorain, Portage, Stark going reliably red, plus such a hole to dig out of with so many rural counties going 90 plus percent GOP. It’s red and only getting redder. It will never go full West Virginia but will go closer to Indiana with time.
@@paulh2116 I guess time will tell but dont forget that just 12 years ago Ohio voted for Barack Obama, so I dont think its out of the question for ohio to go blue if the republicans revert to GOP candidates like Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, instead of Maga candidates like JD Vance, and Vivek Ramaswamy
Because I personally would vote for an independent before I vote for Chris Cristie, and I think that voting independent is no better then throwing your vote in the trash.
I doubt it. DeWine won bigger numbers than MAGA Vance.
@@piepie3167I don’t think the Republicans will ever leave MAGA behind now, Trump has too much of a stranglehold on the entire country
Thanks for answering zero questions as to how it got away from what it was
It cause democrats suck and people are realizing it.
Yeah, she really didn't explain why Ohio moved to the right.
The explanation is that Ohio counted its votes in one night and Pennsylvania took 5 days and 2020 was likely frauded based on red flags
@rashaadjorden1187 it didn't the democrats moved to the left
She really didn’t. Basically the gist is the Ohio Democratic Party is weak and ineffective causing low democratic voter turnout esp in places like northeast Ohio coupled with lack of outreach to smaller/rural communities in the south. Also the republicans in Ohio have such a choke hold on this state because of gerrymandering and other issues that cause voter morale and turnout to be quite low
I live in Ohio. I don’t think it’s because people from Texas and people like that moved in i just feel like the state overall is more conservative. People are changing their ways if that makes sense
The amount of people moving from Texas is far too negligible to make an impact on how the state votes, especially since most people who live in rural areas have been living there for a very long time.
I think the change is due less so to the Republicans being more desirable and more because the Democratic Party has swung hard to the left in the last few decades.
By far the most unpopular issues are the racial, sexual, and transgender ideologies. This is by far the biggest reason why Ohio votes so bright red.
The Democratic Party of 2000 put far less emphasis on these issues.
@@leetballerxxxx3564I said the same thing. As democrats became more nutty, they’ve become less competitive. If they continue down this path, republicans will flip some reliable democrat states. If you look at the margins in 2024…it came close with a few.
As a rural Ohio resident I would say the same
People vote for their interests.
A rural or suburban Ohioan really doesn't care about the Democrat party policies on ideology and gender and more about paying their mortgage and keeping egg inflation low. They don't care if the president owns a uterus or not and are very unenthusiastic about breaking records for the sake of breaking records.
The Democrats made the mistake of thinking that's exactly what they care about. Because most of them are very privileged.
Especially minorities. Blacks beans and even muslims are starting to turn to the GOP
Biden won South Dakota in 2020? He must be the new Dashle/McGovern 🤣
Honestly I think they meant to shade in Nebraska, but either way it wouldn’t have made much sense
Thanks for catching that! We've corrected it in the subs.
@@theluckyone3212 Nebraska went red too.
@@dvferyance I meant the second district
@theluckyone3212 the map is based on who wins the state as a whole not a certain district.
You still haven’t made it clear the reasons why Ohio has shifted red.
As a lifelong Ohio resident I'll tell you why it happened. Traditionally democrat union labor in Ohio flipped to be solidly Republican for Trump in 2016. Ohio lost a lot of jobs because of things like NAFTA and the 2000s were a hard time for the state. Trump's populist and protectionist platform in 2016 resonated with the blue collar workers of Ohio and a lot of union labor shifted. I also wouldn't say the Ohio is a solid Republican state. If the Democrats run a populist candidate who campaigns on bringing jobs back to middle America and Republicans ignore that, Ohio will flip again.
Different answer: the population of most of Ohio's cities has been decreasing for decades. Urban/rural residence is the single most reliable indicator of political affiliation in the US.
In Springfield: They're eating the dogs. They're eating the cats. They're eating the pets of the people who live there
Not for long because they're getting deported
“Talk about extreme ahaha!”
It worked
'They're eating the dogs They're eating the cats, eat the cats, eat, eat the cats.'
Lots of Amish in Ohio and other states, not just PA.
Don't mess with the Amish - they will vote against you in monolithic fashion.
Just like what happened in PA
They have 8 kids on average too they will be growing rapidly.
They survive on almost exclusively on subsidies
Ohio: Man, Republicans are great!
Florida: Same!
This was an interesting video. One reason it fascinating me was that we in Illinois have experienced the opposite phenomenon. Namely, we have gone from being a bellwether state to being the most Democratic state in the Midwest and one of the bluest states in the nation. In Illinois, large numbers of Republicans have fled the Land of Lincoln because of Democratic taxing policies, especially in the Chicago area. Your video is causing me to ask, "What has caused Democrats to leave Ohio?"
As an Alabamian currently living in Ohio for the last five years here’s the biggest reasons in my opinion.
1. Taxes Ohio especially after 2016 is one of the highiest tax burden states in the union where taxes are basically rough with the fact Ohioans don’t make as much money as maybe Illinois does. And the taxes don’t go to shit we don’t have any public infrastructure outside of highways and Ohio is already over policed.
2. Young people hate it here. Most young people don’t want to live in rural places. And most universities are in cities. Toledo Akron Cincinnati and Cleveland are all extremely mismanaged. They offer absolutely nothing to young people looking to move there and are extremely expensive. I’m a college student myself the exact demographic that is leaving Ohio the most but I live in Columbus our biggest and only growing city. Columbus basically only grows because of OSU which is one of the biggest universities in the nation and old people moving here. Columbus is wildly over policed so I don’t feel safe going out at night in fear of being attacked by the police. There isn’t any bars, art places, movie theaters that really cater to young people either. Columbus also is one of the most vehicle dependent places in the entire country and it has no rail and the highest level of vehicle accidents. This is in comparison to my home state of Alabama which even in my tiny town I grew up in there is more night life and things to do as a young person than the 15th biggest metro on earth. Mostly because it isn’t over policed.
3. It is still part of the rust belt. And Ohio home prices are among the fastest growing in the nation because of zero restrictions placed by the state government. This in turn leads to higher renting prices too and with lower than average wages for starting jobs more young people leave. Columbus was able to avoid this some by not being a city built on manufacturing but on transportation so it didn’t really get as affected by the manufacturing collapse.
Basically Ohio screws over young people at every step so young people leave. When I graduated high school here in 23’ most of my graduating class left the state. I’m only going to complete my bachelor’s here before I leave
States like West Virginia, Mississippi, and Arkansas are highly Republican and have low taxes. Yet, they have lagged behind the overall population growth in the US for several years. In fact, West Virginia and Mississippi are 2 out of only 3 states to have a net *LOSS* in population from 2010-2020.
You comment is causing me to ask, "If low taxes are so important, why aren't more people flocking to low tax, Republican states?"
@@derekrequiem4359 Both Indiana and Tennessee are Republican states which tout their low taxes, and many Illinois residents have moved to one of those two states. As a result, Illinois was the third state to lose population in the last decade.
@@EltonHolmes-mx5bg I thank you for the well-thought out reply. Illinois also is experiencing a "brain-drain." Many of our state's best-and-brightest high school graduates are going to college outside of the Prairie State, with many of them not wanting to come back to Illinois.
What the sigma
Nice video, but I would like to add around the 1 minute mark. When it shows the 2020 election results map it shows SD voting for Biden. (just wanted to point out the mistake)
Thanks for catching that! We've corrected it in the subs.
Ohio is like the average of America.
It has voter ID.
While that may have had some impact on depressing voter turnout, it certainly didn't move Ohio from a swing to safe republican state
It's almost like 2020 was frauded
This is wbat bappens when you abandon the working class for elitist snobs in the suburbs
You actually think the Republican (MAGA) party is for the working class? Trump is famously anti-union and worker's rights. On the record.
How have republicans helped the working class? Explain in detail.
@@GriftinBobbySunflower Tax cuts.
@@GriftinBobbySunflowerregardless of whether it ends up working or not, Trump's vow to fight against outsourcing is extremely popular with working class voters.
Working class voters generally see mass immigration as a ploy to replace them with 3rd world laborers who will work for cheaper than they will. They also hate the idea of amnesty since they see it as a scheme to import so many foreigners that you can change the electorate so that their votes don't have to matter anymore. I would say they're pretty much right on both fronts.
The working poor are also some of the most hostile voters to tax increases. "Tax the rich" often doesn't resonate with the working poor because they realize full and well that the rich business owners and managers aren't going to respond to tax hikes by just accepting being less rich, they're going to start slashing jobs and the working poor will always be first on the chopping block. "Take from the rich and give to the poor" also doesn't resonate very well with the working class because many of them don't want a hand out, they want a dignified job that they can make a living from and they seem to see that the government doesn't tax the rich and give to the poor, it taxes everyone and gives to its cronies.
Then there's the Democratic Party's radical left shift on social issues and identity politics. Wealthy, overeducated snobs from San Francisco or Manhattan might virtue signal about having a transgender child and their friends might coo at how progressive & brave they are but if you go to a small town in a rural area & tell some guy who works as a mechanic that his 12 year old daughter is now going to have to compete against boys in school sports & that she's also going to have to shower & change around naked boys in the school locker room simply because those boys claim to identify as girls he's going to rightfully look at you like you're out of your mind. Apart from the crazy trans stuff the Democratic party has made it abundantly clear that they care far more about racial or identity-based grievances than about class. The Democrats are also seen as far more globalist while working class Americans tend to be very nationalistic & patriotic.
On environmental policies the Democrat's proposals are also hostile to working-class voters. Making it impossible to mine for minerals, harvest timber or drill for oil & gas doesn't exactly net you many friends with workers in those industries. Rural Americans who have to drive a lot absolutely hate the idea of carbon taxes nor is the idea of migrating to electric cars at all feasible for people who live in rural areas or just about anyone who rents rather than owns the place where they live. The top three vehicles sold in America every year are pickup trucks. Those trucks burn gas & telling working folks that you're going to jack up fuel taxes to punish them for the sin of carbon emissions doesn't appeal to them. The working poor also spend a much higher portion of their household budget on things like electricity and increasing the price of electricity & natural gas in order to reduce carbon emissions hurts the poor far more than it hurts the rich.
The working poor are also angry about inflation. Wealthier people might not notice that the price of eggs or a gallon of gas has gone up and maybe they've gotten pay raises to keep up with the inflation but this hasn't been the case for a lot of working poor.
@@danman6431 The tax cuts that increase the debt and deficits that will hurt our children and grandchildren. The one that disproportionately helped boost corporate profits but didn't pass down to consumers as they raised prices anyway.
I think it is too soon take Ohio’s thrown away as the bellwether state. I think we are already starting to see that 2020 was anomaly in terms of presidential elections. It was correct in 2016 and 2024.
It was once said that no Republican could win the presidency without Ohio.
This is what a realignment looks like.
Kind of like how Florida and Colorado used to be swing states but now they're solidly red and solidly blue respectively.
Ohio & Florida has been the most accurate for over 100 years
Florida used to be a competitive battleground. Now it's a solid red state.
Once upon a time, Illinois always went for the winning candidate (except 1976). That all changed in the new millennium. What Ohio taketh, Illinois taketh away.
I think it’s mainly a Trump thing specifically. Without Trump, who knows how close Ohio will be.
It’s still fairly bipartisan these days, for example the Senate race could go either way.
Also I think another reason is that Appalachia used to vote democratic until the 2000s, when the democratic party basically moved on from them
the democratic party actively hates white poor and middle class people
why do you think they hate them?@@pcarnold9
@ mostly cuz they are white and didn’t go to college
@@pcarnold9stop trolling
I grew up in Mahoning County. Mahoning was the bluest county in the state. When I first started voting, I basically didn't get to vote in local elections because you couldn't run as a Republican so the general election winners were all decided in the primary on the Democrat ballot. There was no way I was asking for a Democrat ballot even at 18.
The first Republican to win a local election was the auditor in 2015, pre-Trump. He was elected because people were sick of the corruption. He had a lucrative career on his own and was unlikely to be bought because of it which made him trustworthy. That's actually very similar to what we see with Trump though, outside and no need for the swamp.
As the last 10 years have gone by, more and more local elections are going Republican. WKBN has been covering it a lot since the results of the 2024 election. Almost all local offices went red. You're even seeing local politicians switch parties, not because they've changed their values but because being an R isn't an automatic loss anymore and people can claim their real party. And having grown up a Republican in the county I will say, there's always been a lot of us. We just kept our mouths shut because it wasn't popular. Many also voted consistently on Democrat Primary ballots for more of a say in local elections.
We also finally fired Sherrod Brown. He has baffled me for 18 years. Every time he's up for election, every other state office will go Republican but Brown will win by a landslide. I've never understood it. He's clearly very far on the left, but people were obviously crossing party lines in droves to vote for him. I think voting him out is the biggest indicator that Ohio has indeed changed.
Wkbn had a fantastic break down of every city and precinct in Mahoning (and I think Trumbull) comparing the number of votes in the 2020 and 2024 elections. It's fascinating. Only a handful of precincts outside the city of Youngstown went blue. I haven't lived in the county in over a decade (still have family there) but really found the breakdown intriguing.
Wait... At 1:05...
Why did they show South Dakota blue?
Thank you for pronouncing Appalachian correctly
I learned the proper pronunciation from a Tennessee based band called Tuatha Dea. Even they pronounced it wrong until someone kindly corrected them. Look up "Appalachia burning" 😊
I find it interesting that as soon as ohio lost its title, 2 of ohios neighbors took on its mantle.
As much as it pains a ohioan to admit michigan continues our legacy.
Also PA actually lets just talk about PA
I lived in Trumbull county most of my life (though I am currently in Cyprus).
The area has been Democratic since FDR, but, before going to Cyprus, virtually all the political signs were for Trump. Also, Trump won Trumbull County in both 2016 and 2020.
The democratic party is losing the working class, and Ohio is a microchasm of that. It's not completely lost for them yet, but it will be in 10 years unless the party changes its platform dramatically
After that election the democrats have not just abandoned the working class the working class have abandoned them. Losing Iowa by 13, OH by 9. It’s the scale of the decline that should worry them.
They need the working class because the non working class, supports republicans
I think Ohio will always be a bellweather. 2020 was just a wonky year with Covid.
LOL
Nah, if Harris had won she still would have lost it
and fraud
2024?
This pains me so much
1:28 Why capitalize black but not White?
not only that, Ohio also predicted more than half of the US president since it's established.
Nice video but the Map of counties you showed had Mahoning and Columbiana county merged as one, which I don't think would matter except for the fact that you were highlighting Mahoning. Either way, great job!
Crazy to think that Al gore could have broken Ohio's streak
And now the new VP is from Ohio…
Ohioian here. The other reasons are Cuyahoga county (Cleveland) has seen a decrease in population, whereas Columbus and the Central Ohio region has seen an explosion in population since the '90s. However, in the last census, the rural areas of Ohio have seen a decrease in population. Whereas Central Ohio (Columbus Metro Area) is continuing to grow and is very democratic except for the counties surrounding Franklin county (Columbus). And I dont know who will win tomorrow since I'm posting this the day before election day, but Ohio more than likely will become a swing state/ purple again in a couple years due to the declining rural population. And the population trends that I stated.
to the left of florida, iowa, texas...
Ohio voted only 9 points to the right of the popular vote. In 2020, it voted 12 points to the right of the popular vote.
@@theacroway2056 “only 9”, he says. There’s not even a guarantee that that number goes down again.
@@J7Handle Agreed, very blue states like NJ and NY moving a bit right and taking the national average with them does not mean that Ohio was somehow more in play for Kamala. By that logic MI, WI, and PA would have moved left vs 2020 even though they went from 1-3 pt Biden wins to 1-2 point Trump wins.
People are just shifting around. Just because a city or county loses population doesn’t mean someone left the state. They moved to another county to avoid higher taxes, property cost, schools or for better jobs, etc. Ohio population in 2000 was 11.36 million and 11.69 million in 2020. While nothing significant, especially with declining birth rates, I think most data out there suggest people just move around in the state. I believe it’s only “red” because of bat shit crazy democrat policy. We’ve seen it in other states as well and some population losses in big blue states. This 2024 election we’ve seen red states become more red and blue states also become more red. New Jersey had a 5 point difference. Even CA was a 10 point. While that is large, it should be larger. My point is Ohio is red because of stupid policies by democrats and nothing more. Once they become less stupid, it will return to a swing state. It’s that simple.
I found it interesting that Mahoning County (Youngstown) turned red in 2020, and got even redder in 2024.
Ohio needs to go back to being a Battleground state.
No, we’re fine.
Okay but why is SD blue at 00:12 tho
Good vid nonetheless
Ohio went for the winner in 2020 too
0:11 As a politics nerd, it annoys me that you had South Dakota blue of all states.
As an Ohioan my shame in this state right now runs so deep...I'm sorry for the terrifs and economic crash coming next year...
enjoy your cats
At 2:23 Mahoning's appearance is wrong. This shows Mahoning and Columbiana combined.
As an Ohioan, I don’t think Ohio is permanently red as we have voted for abortion and our senate race is very close. Personally I think the swing is because of Trump himself and it’s possible that Ohio will become a swing state again.
It's definitely moderately red at the minimum. Depending on if Sherrod Brown can win tomorrow, that will determine if Ohio officially becomes a red stronghold or not.
Ohio didn't vote for abortion, Ohio went centrist on abortion banning it after 22 weeks with medical exceptions, not like what Michigan did with allowing all abortions or Texas with only allowing abortions up to 6 weeks.
Native Ohioan here as well! Understand that social issues are going left, but foreign policy and economic policy are going HEAVY to the right.
Ohioans have suffered the brunt of the manufacturing loss and drug problem. It's a permanent red state at this point. A lot of Democrats vote red on the Federal level, but blue on local.
Yeah as an Ohioan I think trump is keeping the state afloat for republicans. I myself am a republican
Well, his VP pick this time is native Ohioan. I think it remains to see if JD Vance can 'succeed' most of Trump's political heritage 4 years from now. If so, I do see OH being 'red' a little longer at least, as there usually is a 'hometown warming' effect for presidential candidates (and even VP candidates to some extent).
Great animation! Keep up the good work.
This is a really good video
I live in Ohio! ❤
It seems every state has gone through some changes and some more surprised than others. Florida is the same way. They used to be a swing state but now it's solid red and while Texas is a red state, at some point it's expected to become a swing state.
Re: TX, that remains to be seen. If Trump's gains with Latinos hold, TX won't get close in the foreseeable future.
The blue South Dakota is pissing me off, great video tho 😂
Americans try to find patterns in random things about this crazy electoral system
This doesn't have anything to do with the electoral system, but rather shifting political prioritises within regions of the country.
I like considering 'American Nations' and how the sub-nations factor into things. Trump appeals very strongly to Appalachians, but he also appeals to Midlanders, who find the current Urban Monoculture coming out of New England and California to be weird and gross. This is why Iowa also swung toward Trump so strongly. The upper Midwestern states are all the second stage of Yankeedom, founded by many people from New England. Pennsylvania meanwhile has the east side and Philadelphia, pushing it bluer, the same way Illinois has Chicago. Democrats don't much appeal to Midlanders, and until they do, they won't win the state.
Only in Ohio , level 10 gyatt rizzed up by baby Gronk is what happened. Edging and mewing streaks were not maintained.
They cheated in 2020, but it backfired big time. Ohio was accurate in 2020 as well.
Ohio people got smarter.
Interesting consider the lower someone’s IQ is, the more likely they are to be conservative
Got dumber. They're supporting a felon who wants pedophiles, rapists and conspiracy theorists in his cabinet
Here in Brazil we also have a "bellwether" state: Minas Gerais. It has the second biggest population.
Nosso caso é diferente devido ao fato de Minas Gerais ser o Brasil e miniatura e está no coração do Brasil, coisa que os americanos não possuem.
@@eduardoandrade7846 Mas esse é justamente o conceito de "bellwether": é uma região que funciona como "termômetro" representativo da política do país.
Minas Gerais fica encaixada entre o interior baiano, o eixo Rio-SP e o Centro Oeste, regiões com focos e necessidades totalmente diferentes, mas que formam uma síntese da realidade brasileira.
Only in Ohio💀
So funny.
Ohio has been a Republican leaning state for many years now. Since 1990, Ohio has only voted for a Democrat governor once. Clinton and Obama had mass popularity, much like Sherrod Brown, but otherwise, Ohio has voted to the right of the nation for many decades.
South Dakota?
such a well made video and only has 33k views and 1k subs?
Why is South Dakota blue?
1:06 didn’t know South Dakota voted for Biden
It didn't, it voted for trump by around 25 points
Why is South Dakota blue. Skull
2020 didn't count
2:23 the counties mahoning and columbiana are connected as one
3:00 you mean 1976?
at 1:05 on the graphic South Dakota is blue indicating it voted for Joe Biden, This is inaccurate.
Once you go Red you never go back! Just ask Florida
1:58 Ohio has never been seen as a part of the “Blue Wall”, but is a battleground state just south of the “Blue Wall”. Pennsylvania (which for some reason wasn’t included here), Michigan, and Wisconsin are the main “Blue Wall” states-all three of which were won by Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024.
Same with Florida
*I* HAPPENED to Ohio 😮
1:06 south dakota?
NAFTA, it's because of NAFTA. Those manufacturing cities you talked about got fucked over very hard by NAFTA. Those who lost their jobs never forgot
1:02 south Dakota aint blue
or maybe Trump really did win the 2020..😂...because Ohio still got it right this election
The black people left
lol what are you talking about? ohios black population has grown by 25% since 2000. the black population has grown as a larger percentage of the overall population, as have hispanic and asian. more of them are voting republican just like white people.
Ohio rizz skibidi.
👶🏻📱
Real1s know Ohio still hasnt been wrong
Ohio was a Democrat stronghold for much of the 1980s despite voting for Reagan twice and Bush in 1988. Celeste was governor, Metzenbaum and Glenn were the Senators.
Northeast Ohio was a manufacturing powerhouse. Steel, autos and tires were all made in Northeast Ohio and the UAW, USW and URW were all reliable Democrat voters.
The tire factories closed and only Goodyear is headquartered in Akron. Steel left the Mahoning Valley. Chrysler isn't in Twinsburg anymore and Ford tore down a lot of the Brook Park engine plant
Add to that the Democrat hostility to coal, natural gas and the white blue collar worker and Ohio has shifted.
The same thing has happened to Pennsylvania outside of Philadelphia and it's suburban counties.
Please do a video about Virginia or Colorado, cause they are the blue equivalent of Ohio
why is south dakota blue lmao
People have been off handedly talking about states like ohio and calling them bellweathers for the last 20 years or so. But traditionally states are not looked to for bellweather status. We traditionally talk about bellweather COUNTIES. Not states.
As an Ohioan, it’s a very blue collar working class state, our housing is affordable and our wages are fair. We do not want higher taxes, or many of the democrats policy’s, a lot of people have flipped parties to keep Ohio strong
Ohio is only affordable because hardly anyone wants to move there.
There is not an explanation of anything. Video was a waste of time.
Why did the merge Columbiana County with Mahoning County?
America is still so young. Nothing is stable yet
There are four Ohio counties bordering PA. Your map combines Columbiana with Mahoning.
Still no Republican has won without Ohio. It is still an important state.
Very interesting
Nice job smart political commentary- Ohio’s Appalachian voters may fed up with the far left
You forgot half of the Mid-West 💀
Nebraska
North/South Dakota
OHIO's large cities has been Losing population and the state has grown about 0.5%. Younger people, college educated were the democrats helping to make it a swing state. With them gone, the state is in a sharp decline...intellectually and so on.
only in Ohio
I live in cleveland and from what ive seen when i travel around, almost everyone outside the city seems to be hardcore red, and even in the blue counties where i live and the inner city, its either split or people dont care
Well, now we’ve got PA
0:33 “swing state” and “battleground state” absolutely can be used interchangeably. A swing state doesn’t just vote 10 points Republican one election and 10 points Democrat the very next election, lol. Swing states are always EXTREMELY close, being a near 50/50 split, thus why they swing to a different party each election, for the most part.
Ohio voted for Obama by a large margin, and then for Trump in 2016 by a large margin.