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@wargraphic643 there is 1 quick way to end a war with china. and the Americans are quite capable of doing it. And you dont even need nukes but is equally devastating. You just hit the 3 Gorges Dam and it will flood a 1000 mile length and flood out most of the center of china as well as their cities, their rice fields, and military bases and air bases. It will effect 400 million chinese citizens as well in the area. China is done effectively after that.
Wow, you got purchased or your writer is pro US. You are missing A LOT of back story for all of these examples. As example, the atoll was known as off limits so they shined a laser, the US shoots warning shots so what's worse?
I think neither the US nor China can afford a war, because of covid, debt, taking in too much immigrants, the Hawai'i fire and all the above... too many things have happened. I'm smoking weed, having fun... but at the same time, I'm thinking about the possible war
It will probably start with a simultaneous attack against Japan, Taiwan, and Philippines. Involving mass firebombing of the population centres on mass, to exterminate the local population.
1:20 - Chapter 1 - The ancient trap 2:20 - Mid roll ads 4:00 - Back to the video 7:45 - Chapter 2 - Gray zone, taiwan strait 12:25 - Chapter 3 - Powder keg, the south china sea 16:55 - Chapter 4 - Black swan, tokyo
Personally I think a mistake is more likely to set off an escalation. North Korea launches an ICBM over Japan, it falls short and hits Japan instead. Phillipines try to run a China ship blockade and rams one of them instead. In addition, China seems to prefer the salami tactic, periodically slicing off a piece in order to avoid provoking a response. But frankly, I thought Russia was going to do that in Ukraine after 2014.
Salami... I've been in the army for 16 years and I've worked with intel analysts "dated 1 for a while" I've never heard this but it makes so much sense.
@@brs690 I can't credit for the name. China reminds me of the bully that keeps taking your pen, cutting in front of you, eating your lunch, copying your homework, reneging on a promise, to see how much he can get away with. And then when you belt him one he goes running to the authorities crying that he did one little thing and you over reacted.
It’s much easier to show apocalyptic visions rather than the complexities of black swan events. Yr comment kinda doesn’t add much to fallout or other similar narratives
@@mopnem Most fictional stories are ultimately warnings and cautionary tales. Even if they have no real basis in reality or potential to become our reality it doesn't mean they should be ignored. They have very valuable lessons to teach us and often give us ideals to aspire towards. The best ones afford us the opportunity to look inward and reflect on the actual world we live in. Personally, I'd much rather humanity's not-so distant future more closely resemble Mass Effect or Star Trek than Fallout or Warhammer 40k.
The examples you give early on of 'unintended consequences' (WW1, the Franco-Prussian war), both had powerful factions pushing for war and looking to incite one, Von Hotzendorf was the Austrian chief of staff and petitioned the Kaiser to go to war with Serbia about 30 times in the year prior to the outbreak of WW1, Bismarck was actively manipulating the French to declare war in order to facilitate German unification, and Napoleon III was urged by his wife to go to war to improve national prestige. Not sure about the Russo-Japanese war though, don't know much about it beyond the broad narrative
I think he meant what happens after with each and that why he talked about red lines and each side misunderstanding each other and things escalating with Von Hotzendorf for example i doubt if you had asked him in before the war that he believed invading Serbia was going to lead to Austria and Germany going to war with Britain and the USA. World war I is probably one of the best examples of a situation spiraling far beyond what anyone in charge thought would happen, from what it seems Serbian leaders believed Austria's threats were empty because they wouldn't risk war with Russia while on the flip side Austrian leaders believed Russia wouldn't actually get involved as it would mean war with Germany. Yes Von Hotzendorf wanted war with Serbia but that from what historians say atleast he seemed to have believed a war with Serbia was just that a war with Serbia and not the start of the full scale war between the central powers and the Entente. After all if Russia had behaved the way it seem Von Hotzendorf thought they would the Austrian - Serbian war or whatever it would have been called would just have been another regional war in Europe like so many others.
Doesn't change the impact of the idea. Plus we know China is already waging a soft war against the West, and Chinas defense ministry has publicly released plans to be the sole superpower at the end of the 2030s. They've laid out their path to war. In the United States although I haven't heard of any specific examples I would be willing to bet my entire paycheck that there are several high-ranking military officials who are gunning for a war with China. You pretty much bet your bottom dollar that someone in power is gunning for war 24/7 in the United States.
A post apocalyptic wars is like a mad max. The term you want is “apocalyptic war” given that “post-apocalyptic”’ has to have an apocalypse before it starts for it to be “posterior” to.
What conflict? Laos and Cambodia is basically on Chinese payroll. Vietnam is too busy fighting over the Chinese support, the Western support, and the home rule factions.
@@lazysunside All those countries you listed have experience severe environmental and economic issues to the dams. Maybe when their leaders figure out that China is only out for itself, they will join the US and Philippines.
@@admiralkaede Laos has been decoupling from China lately. They've even started to build manufacturing plants to steal away some of the manufacturing economy from China. Vietnam is doing the same. China has also laid claim to a lot of the air space and ocean that Vietnam legally owns. The 9 dashes line causes a lot of conflict with Vietnam. I forget if it's Laos or Cambodia but one of them is a pretty good ally to Vietnam too. So the damn would cause massive damage to all three, Laos and Vietnam are trying to take away part of China's economy, and the 9 dashes puts them at arms with Vietnam while being real allies with a country China has been kind of earning favor with.
@@admiralkaede they are indeed, or at least trying to. It doesn't mean factionalism doesnt exist within the country. They are closer to Israel than the US
@stugnabulah4873 You may think that you are not going anywhere, but if the war meant that conscription was started it would probably be like during the Vietnam War where if guys refused to go they were sent to Federal Prison, so either way you would be going somewhere, either into combat or into prison. I've entered this comment a few times and it is intended for @stugnabulah4873, but every time it shows up attached to your comment instead. I hope that he sees it.
"Staying with Japan, it was the Empire's continued expansion into the Pacific that lead to United States entering WWII." That's an unusual way of phrasing the Empire of Japan attacked the United States and then declared war upon them.
Yeah the Thuydides trap doesn’t work very well in practice since it’s mostly the rising power who is the aggresor, if a war were to break out between China and the US it is very unlikely that the US would be the one to instigate it.
I believe that he was referring to the decades of tension between the US and Japan before WW2 that saw the US and Japan competing for influence in the Pacific and China while forging alliances with other powers in the region aimed at containing each other. This culminated in the US launching an oil embargo against Japan in 1940 to punish Japan for continuing its war to conquer China. This embargo resulted in Japanese war planners calculating that in order to continue the war against China, they would need to conquer several European colonies in SE Asia to capture their strategic resources (oil, rubber, etc). Doing this would inevitably draw the US (who could easily intervene via the Philippines) into the war. Thus the Japanese war planners opted for a pre-emptive strike against every major US base in the Pacific/SE Asia (including Pearl Harbor) with the intention of crippling the US Navy long enough for Japan to conquer SE Asia. From here SE Asia’s resources would be used to both prosecute the war in China and hold off the US. This series of events is what the video is trying to draw connections to.
Well it's not wrong either. The expansion led America to be vary of Japan's actions, increasing their influece around Pacific, which led to Japan thinking escalation was inevitable and thus inducting the first strike with Pearl Harbor.
In fact it was oil and rubber America had been sending heaps of those resources, as well as steel and iron ore, to Japan for years up until Manchuria, and when the Japs made it into "Manchukuo" the Americans cut trade ties with them to slow down the expansion of the Japanese empire, which made the Japanese feel like they were stabbed in the back by the West (again), so they suprise-attacked Pearl Harbour. It should be said that many in the top brass, including Admiral Yamamoto, who oversaw the PH surprise attack, were against bringing America into the war because their industry could go war-time real quick and if that happened, Japan had 6 months to beat the American navy or risk losing all their gains As Yamamoto said himself "I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled it with terrible resolve"
I think that one major flashpoint missed off the list is the Indian-Chinese border dispute. That has seen localised conflict between patrols for years, thankfully stopped before escalation, but it doesn't take much. Further, the Kashmir issue could plunge Pakistan and India into a conflict that China uses as a distraction to take, by force, lands they claim, which, is miscalculated, could lead to a wider conflict.
The difference between now and the first half of the 20th century is taking into account nuclear weapons. Any nation that has a nuclear arsenal has to take into account that if they get into a shooting war with another nuclear armed nation that the ultimate escalation is a distinct probability.
A possibility, yes, but I don't believe either China or the US would resort to that. Even if one disregards China's "no first use" policy, it doesn't really improve their situation. They would be gambling they could fire off some nukes and the US would negotiate rather than escalate, which is about as safe as betting you have a royal flush without looking at your cards.
look at it this way, china has 1 big weakness, the 3 gorges dam. you bust that dam with missiles and it floods out the entire center of china along that 1000 mile length of the river and china is done. if you see 1 american aircraft carrier sunk, that 3 gorges dam is as good as busted flooding cities, chinese rice paddies, air fields and military bases. taiwan already wrote up the plan if china attacks they hit that dam.
@@ajitadonismanilal9105 you might think it's noble or reasonable to hate humans like that, but in reality, this makes you the same as the common sociopath or serial killer.
I completely agree, the replacement of a current superpower doesn't occur without conflict. The UK was replaced due to the impacts of two world wars. No superpower gives up control if they think they can win or the victor aligns with their goals
UK giving up its first place to US would be so much less bloody than this, one big reason being in this case, this is a nonwhite power replacing the #1
Actually factboi, if a China-US War happens it will be "apocalyptic", the "post-apocalyptic" part comes afterward for the survivors roaming the wasteland.
Also the fact that it went hot in other countries as proxies... The video is simply wrong that this specific power struggle didnt lead to war. It did. Multiple times.
@@Srt092 The Cold War never led to a larger general war though, because a conventional war in Europe would have inevitably escalated to a nuclear war due to the existential nature of the conflict for the many nuclear powers involved. This same dynamic doesn't exist in the US-China rivalry, which makes nuclear war far less likely, but makes a larger conventional war more likely.
Yeah, the dread of "War being inevitable" is very much like what it was in WWI or any other war in the last 200 years. You can always tell when major war is coming, you just don't know the trigger point (As you stated, people tend to look at one thing as the trigger and it turns out they were wrong...except for the "lucky" person).
@@lsp6032Kim's nukes can't threaten anyone aside from South Korea. Yes, it would be a very bad day for a lot of people in Seoul, but it would be unlikely to drag the whole world into a nuclear war.
Thankfully the odds of this becoming a Nuclear War are slim to none since, unlike Russia, China not only has less nukes, but also a strict don’t strike first policy (this is a extremely sensible policy). The US is equally reluctant to use nukes. So while a Pacific war with China will cost greatly in terms of blood, treasure, and military resources, it will unlikely result in the destruction of human civilization. Along as China waits in till the pipelines into Russia are built a Pacific war won’t even destroy it’s economy within a month making the use of nukes by far the worse choice.
@@AS-wd5hb well yeah, considering the very real reasons (such as not wanting their entire nation destroyed), they put up the policy in the first place. Even a limited nuclear strike on China would be way more devastating to their nation, than any realistic consequence a conventional war can bring (a successful mainland invasion of China is not possible without the use of WMDs). The fact that roughly 70% of China’s land is mountains and deserts means that China is way more vulnerable to Nuclear strikes than either Russia, or the US. Any more incredibly dumb questions?
@@Rob-iz6nm even if what you said about the real number of nuclear weapons and shelters is actually true (neither are cheap you know), China’s cities and farmland would still be a radioactive wasteland, which would still mean the destruction of China’s civilization. The primary use of having nuclear weapons is to deter their use in the first place (at least planetside).
@@AS-wd5hbyes, precisely because they have less nuclear weapons. They have no choice. Any threats they make would not be credible. Besides the whole idea is to deter a strike or for counter coercion
It would be the first time 2 super powers stepped into open conflict with 1 another inevitably pulling other nations in starting ww3. It's a conflict that would devastate the world and one that nobody should want.
It's ALREADY happening. China's New World Order is a part of their creation of BRICS and why the G20 wants in. The New Development Bank of Shanghai China is China's version of the World Bank (under Chinese authoritarian rule). (BRICS is Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and the G20 is Saudi Arabia, Iran...) We are ALREADY in WWIII.
I don't think a war between the US and China will lead to ww3. For sure, US will have many allies on its side, but who's fighting alongside China? North Korea? Russia will gladly sit on the sidelines and play cheerleader, much like China is doing right now about Ukraine.
Imagine Having to Bash A China Man's Face In with the Butt of Your Gun in a desperate Struggle for Survival in some Far off Distant Fxcked up place like in Ww2...
I don't know if the rise of a new power leaves the older power fearful or if the new power is so desperate to be recognized as a power that they continually push until war is inevitable.
Can blame US for not wanting to be overtaken and China for wanting to become a superpower but in this scenario US is being provocative on Taiwan issue they literally acknowledge one China and at the same time tryna support a break away region
New power doesn't want wat. Old power wants war desperately now before new power becomes too powerful. Old power knows that new power is progressing so much that even next 5 years can make them 1.5x more powerful than they are today.
I'm not trying to belittle anyone but simply expressing myself (while it is still legal), but this form of presentation is equally hard to listen to. No natural inflections and emotions is monotonous, but for me forcing a fake enthusiasm is equally bad. I find it hard to listen to, it is like listening to an AI voice. I talk like this for a minute or two after a shot of americano. But to go on overly expressive in a constant manner feels extremely fake. Why don't people just speak like they would in real life to other people? I like to listen to videos while working and presentation like this quickly become background noises for me, and I usually find myself getting irritated and wanting to stop the video, doesn't matter what topic it is. But videos with natural speech are very engaging and I could hear them for hours while my hands work by themselves. Just sharing, peace friend.
The book "2034: the novel of the next world war" does a really interesting job of addressing some of the flash points and potential causes of a conflict like this.
I just don't see the US sending a carrier fleet into the Taiwan Straight after the loss of a destroyer or dropping the first nuke. Truth can be stranger than fiction but I just don't see the levels of strategic stupidity written about in that book. Hard to believe it was written by someone who served in the Navy.
It's a terribly written book but does give insight into the mindset of US military leaders given who the co-author is. It does not inspire confidence for the self awareness of our military leaders.
"From that time Jesus began to preach, and to say, Repent: for the kingdom of heaven is at hand." Matthew 4:17 "Ye have heard that it hath been said, An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth: But I say unto you, That ye resist not evil: but whosoever shall smite thee on thy right cheek, turn to him the other also." Matthew 5:38-39 "And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward. But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly." Matthew 6:5-6°
I think the hottest flashpoint is being overlooked and its not between the West and its Allies and China. China has significant territorial disputes with Russia in Manchuria, and Eastern Siberia has lots of valuable water and mineral resources that China would very much like to have. Meanwhile Russia is looking very weak right now and is exhausting itself in Ukraine while the US and its allies are looking very strong and united. If China wants to make a territorial grab using military power I think its most likely target right now is Russia, especially if an internal collapse of the Russian government sets them up with a golden opportunity for an easy win and a live-fire test run for their military without risking their critical trade relations with the West.
While I think that’s a lukewarm flashpoint atm, I fully agree that if Russia looks unable to sustain itself and more and more dependent on China, and it looks like Russia’s Federation will fall to internal collapse or Western interference, China would definitely join on the “side” of the West or on its own eventually as an excuse for a land grab. I think it would be important to have Japan in a stronger military position by then to compete with Chinese and potentially North Korean expansion into these regions, interrupting the birth of a new communist block like WWII caused. At the moment that does not look to be the case, as the CCP wants to look strong on paper with Russia as it’s ally to ward off conflict with the US, and I think China believes that they can get what they want in some capacity at the moment, if not today then in the coming years. If something erupts between these groups (Russia weary of these moves, starting to feel more like a second class partner in this arrangement, one obscene overstep by China over Russian territory and resources), then the dynamic could change quickly.
I agree. We are China's golden goose. China produces nearly every widget that Americans have come to love and expect. In short the American and Chinese economic futures are dependent upon each other for success. Greed might not keep the two nations on the same side of every military action, but more than likely greed will help prevent war between the two. Russia collapsing is a win/win for both China and the US. Let's hope that none of the other potential 'flash points' becomes an issue.
China has sided with Russia for the same reason they have sided with United States corporations, to seize control by manipulation of the government of that country. Afterall, the incompetent idiot and his crime family have receives over $100 million from china to manipulate policy and control of the United States.
@@blackwindfarms china controls the United States. Thanks to the commie pedophile clinton, china now owns most of our mines in the United States, owns or has controlling interest in all our food processors and owns hundreds of thousands of acres of farm/ranch land literally around our most secretive bases in the United States, to the boundary fences of all these bases. The previous owners were forced to sell or their land was condemned and given to china by our local, state and federal governmental officials. China has acquired more land over the last 2 1/2 years than the previous 30 years combined, and the majority around secret military installations. China controls our government, food, corporations and us.
Excellent video as always Simon. Thanks! On the other hand, you've significantly increased my anxiety level, and after watching this video I am not going to sleep as soundly as usual tonight... Still, it's better to be informed than to be ignorant.
9:40 It isn't only Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China. It is also the UN's position. It is also the USA's position (read the Three Communiques).
That's the problem then, countries that are culturally aligned, same history, and one side doesn't want to let go when some of its people want a different future. China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, United Kingdom/Ireland. @@horridohobbies
I’d anticipate that China has watched the Russo-Ukrainian and has concluded that limited war doesn’t work. Meaning they’ll either do some hybrid war or an all out offensive in the Pacific like Japan did in 1941 and 42
Why wouldn’t it work? Taiwan is not Ukraine. It’s an island. The west wouldn’t be able to resupply Taiwan unless they get directly involved in the conflict, which would lead to an all out war.
@@thesecretjuice it is much harder to invade an island than it is to defend it. Also amphibious invasions are significantly slower than those over land, meaning the west would have more time to get weapons into Taiwan
@@blackXhawksXkickXbut Amphibious invasions don't take that long, not long enough for Taiwan's allies to send them extra weapons. For example, these amphibious invasions went very quickly after they were launched: Operation Overlord, the D-Day landings; the UN forces landings at Inchon during the Korean War; and the Allied landings in Italy during WWII (I can't remember the name of the place where they landed, but I know it happened. This one actually reinforces your comment. The Allied forces landed quickly, but the Germans kept them pinned down near their landing sites for months, inflicting a large number of casualties among the Allied soldiers).
@@dinsdalemontypiranha4349 you also have to factor in the time taken to prepare the invasions. Overlord took years of planning and training. And many months of logistical preparations. Our spy satellites are very good and will spot these efforts. Giving us at least a couple months to get weapons in. It’ll also give Taiwan the time it needs to mine the landing beaches and emplace obstacles
it being an island makes it MUCH HARDER to invade cross strait invasions are a nightmare and the Taiwan strait is FAR bigger then the english channel also taiwan has mountains that are VERY easy to have gorrila fighters and defenses in also taiwan has been preparing for over 60 years while ukraine has only started 5 or so years ago and the US is VERY likely to get involved even if it will be an all out war ukraine being lost sucks taiwan being lost would be a MAJOR problem for the world the US and all US allies they are not even remotely the same @@thesecretjuice
Topic suggest: the many unusual misadventures of the Russian Second Pacific Squadron on its epic voyage to its fate in the Straits of Tsushima. Although its would be best done as a cold read which is not really Warographics style.
I don’t see this war happening if China is a rational actor. China is dependent on Western trade and imports way too many resources via the Strait of Malacca. Also is the consideration of Alliances, the US has an economic bloc that will sanction China as well as Japan/South Korea/Australia/UK willing to support militarily and others like India/Philippines/Vietnam/NATO willing to assist in other ways. China has… North Korea(?). The cost/benefit for China is nonexistent other than Xi’s ego and desire to out cult of personality Chairman Mao.
See, many analysts thought similar reasons would stop Putin from going ahead with an invasion of Ukraine, and here we are. If anything, China will take its time to prepare, but I don't see it in terms of "if", but of "when".
The idea that war with China would be some massive world-war scale conflict is silly. China simply does not have the ability to project enough power to keep up such a fight. Say they invade Taiwan; that would last a couple of weeks. Why? Because their sea-lift capability would be dismantled easily and then they'd have no ability to supply any troops that actually made it ashore. Additionally, their economy would absolutely collapse and they would be cut off from their main supplies of oil, natural gas, and food. Yes, China relies on food imports.
I do wonder why this set of realities is ignored, China literally depends on the freedom of navigation as facilitated by the United States Navy since WW2 and US allies since. As such by default that same naval alliance can cut it off in totality. Russia will certainly be in no state to help as they currently depend on (exploitative) support from China.
@@cynthiaherbst3909 Exactly. And China really has no reason to see Russia succeed at anything, except maybe at taking out their mutual enemy for them. Any support China gives (and they are aiding Russia directly, along with North Korea and Iran... a fun team to be on) is predicated on China getting what it wants. And it seems like they got it: they now run the show at the BRICS club.
Well both examples after the US overtaking Britain happened after the Development of Nukes. Nukes make Wars between great powers alot less likely. At least less likely to escalate to all out war like we saw in WW2.
US economy surpassed the UK by late 19c. There was a period fifty years prior where the royal navy could have sunk the us navy but chose not to. There were instances where the two could have gone to war but did not. There's a book called safe passage by Cory shake that goes into this period. Worth listening to her talk 😊
If USA 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳 war on Taiwan 🇹🇼 will escalate to mainland China 🇨🇳 and direct war between USA 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳 then 100% chances nuclear war will happen against USA 🇺🇸 China 🇨🇳 and become a both countries will be ground zero. Russia 🇷🇺 and India 🇮🇳 will likely to be lead new rules based order in the world 🌎. 🙏 pray for NO WAR especially between USA 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳. God bless USA 🇺🇸. Keep in mind War is always painful and lots of lives will loose and sometimes regret a lot after war is over. Thank you for reading my comment. 🙏✌️
The problem with the Peloponnesian War anecdote is that Sparta and Athens were right next each other. The US could foreseeably ignore some amount of aggression by China against small regional powers, just as China does with the US.
@@jeopardized9293 Those territories wouldn't be high enough value of targets for China to rationally invade. Imperial Japan invaded colonial territories because it built an empire scale military before it built an empire scale economy.
@@enlighteneddoggo5803 America has over 100 thousand troops stationed on islands around China (Japan, Guam, Philippines, Singapore), hundreds of ships and thousands of planes stationed there too. The military might of the American empire is right on China’s doorstep. If China wishes to build its own sphere of influence then it must wage a war with the United States.
The US sat by a few times in the past and let a bully nation expand on its neighbors unhindered. We paid the price for that inaction. No pacific country or alliance without the US backing could protect the rights and freedoms of the smaller countries in the Pacific. We have to police China or risk all of east Asia being pressed under it's thumb
I am surprised that so little attention was given to North Korea as a potential flashpoint, given its potential volatility: The populace is starving the NK economy is terrible and given that the official diplomatic status is one of Armistice, not peace a war could resume at any time. ANY conflict with NK inevitably drags in China.
china doesnt really care at ALL about kim wanting south Korea they are a buffer that is ALL that matters china is HIGHLY unlikely to want north Korea to start a war as 1 if NK starts to loose they may pull out nukes and that will get NK completely Erased from the world map and that will blow into china 2 NK is likely to use bio weapons and china doubtfully wants DEADLY stuff blowing back into it as well same with chem weapons that also may blow back into china thus the situation in Korea for the US and china is STATUS QUO kim may want war but china does not care because the buffer status is good enough
It's because, bluntly, the people of North Korea doesn't really count in the grand scheme of things and because nobody will help the populace, and without any help coming from the USA or any other country, any North Korean Rebellions would be doomed. If any change of governement is coming, it will be from the NK army who could be fed up of the Kim Dynasty, and then, they would have to get the support of China. I know it's harsh.
north korea doesnt have the fuel to run their tanks for a week lol. american airpower would wipe the north koreans out fast also. and the south koreans are armed to the teeth with better more modern weapons. nk has ww2 weapons.
@@giovanni-ed7zq The Ukraine War is proof that a nation equipped with old cold war weapons can hold off a technologically superior enemy for a long time if they are willing to sacrifice men and equipment, both of which North Korea has an abundance of. North Korea is also mountainous and has a massive tunnel network, which would render it even more difficult to bomb into submission than Afghanistan or Vietnam were for America. North Korea might be at a huge disadvantage but it would not be a cakewalk either.
Another great video, Simon! Always enjoyed your videos on all of your channels. One thing I want to bring up to your attention is that the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku islands) are not just claimed by Japan and China, it is actually claimed by Taiwan as well. So that could be a cause of some division between Japan and Taiwan
" Include promovare plătită 0:03 / 23:17 and "it will be the most appocalyptic war"?! ?!?! biggest wars are not the wars at sea, but the wars on land, inland. How Might a US-China War Really Start?" with the simultaneous sinking of FOUR US Aircraft Carriers
implying the cold war ever ended or that even if that one ended there isn't a new one with China already ongoing for years, this own video is kind of proof. China never talks about invading Taiwan or going to war with USA but look how the narrative is sold. USA keeps talking about it all the time
How strong is china really ? Im hearing all these i guess rumors that the ecomony is going down . India , phillipines , japan , us , austrailia , hate you . Wouldnt you wanna start a war you know you can win?
@@myrlyn1250And the humans in that scene are the Pacific Islands who want nothing to do with this. Honestly, Japan would be more like an Allosaurus than a mere Raptor.
idk the phillipeans and singapor and vietnam might side with the US while the phillipeans wanted nothing to do with the US and opened up to china but then china kept on bullying them and now they are like American bases are starting to sound VERY helpful right now singapor is one of the few countries able to buy F-35s meaning they are trusted and as for vietnman china and them have a bloody history also china killed vietnam soldiers years ago and bully them too@@PrimericanIdol
China hasn't fought a large scale war for a very, very long time. Although that was then, now China is starting to develop a pretty powerful military. The USA is currently by far the lord of modern warfare with funding and more importantly the experience of fighting in countless conflicts since WW2. Everyone has more to lose with a war, and i hope China's Premier isn't as crazy as Poo tin.
The last time China was in a formal was the same time the US was, WWII. Unless you're leveling everything in your way, it's "counter-insurgency" bullshit. It's not what has been war for thousands of years. I've deployed 3 times to Iraq and Afghanistan. It sucks, but it's not WWII. We can't even produce our own vehicles. Japanese and Korean brands are more American than US brands, our medical capabilities don't exist, we can't use our own oil, and our technology is stolen every day. To your last point because it's incredibly stupid, anyone seriously involved in this topic knows that Russia was and almost always will be a regional power. Putin isn't our problem. The Philippines was a fun TDY though, so I'll take another.
The last war and not police action was desert storm and that was a route..police jerking like Afganistán is impossible when you have cowards strapping vests to kids and shooting from mosques ..that would not be the case here
@@Ryanbmc4Regardless, the US has significantly more experience in fighting a war than China does. The US does have the capability to be more self-sufficient, but that move will take years, if not decades to pivot unfortunately. Then, if there’s no war or conflict is much shorter/smaller than expected, we’ll have hamstrung our economy for little benefit. Plus, we still have a glaring weakness in our over reliance on Chinese imports of rare earth metals for our smart weapons.
@@Ryanbmc4 At least the USA has been established for many years and the military more or less has continuity since Independence. China really can't say the same and it's essentially untested. Russia is showing us how hard it is to fight a near peer advisory although they're not really a measure of how any other nation will perform. There will be plenty of lessons coming out of Ukraine and it's likely led to the US re organising for facing a real army rather than the counter insurgency stance it had taken. I still back US over China every day of the week at this stage.
Article 5 of the treaty with Japan can be upheld, by supporting Japanese forces in their retaking of the islands, without meaning US troops direct involvement. We can provide Japan with more than just boots on the ground, while maintaining our commitment to the Tokyo-DC alliance. It could take on a Ukrainian model China would then have to decide how bad it wants to keep those islands. If their goals of humiliating Japan and/or a rupture in the alliance aren't in the offing.
Agreed. I highly doubt China can “humiliate” Japan though. They’re going to be WW2 Soviet Union, throwing bodies in a meat grinder vs the Japanese. Chinese demographic issue is also important to note
6:21 war theorists do not agree much with each other on the causes of war but will readily concede that wars happen if one side sees an opportunity. So the answer is to not offer that opportunity and maintain a balance a power
I personally think China feels that putting pressure on it's claim is mostly an appeasement to those in the CCP that refuse to accept the idea of backing down. It would appear too weak and remove pressure from Taiwan. They likely just want Taiwan to hurt due to challenging their authority. Kind of like the U.S. and Cuba, but this time Cuba has a major backer.
They have to. In the Chinese constitution it states the government must work towards reunification of lost lands. Which causes issues with Russia since there is territory from the Qing dynasty that Russia took from China, when the country was really weak. Should a leader not be found trying to reunify China they will be executed and the military will be put in charge.
Cuba wasn't the result of a Civil War though. A more comparable situation would be that between the USA and the CSA where the Lincoln administration threatened any country that recognized the CSA with war, which is not that different from China's threat to cut off diplomatic contact with any nation that recognizes Taiwan.
It would be like US and Cuba; if the Confederates had fled to Cuba, and due to foreign interference, Lincoln and subsequent US presidents could never wipe out the rebellion.
Which is incredibly bizarre as China did a good job preventing Taiwan to become an independent country and be reliant on the Chinese economy, essentially controlling them without having to strong arm them.
"From that time Jesus began to preach, and to say, Repent: for the kingdom of heaven is at hand." Matthew 4:17 "Ye have heard that it hath been said, An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth: But I say unto you, That ye resist not evil: but whosoever shall smite thee on thy right cheek, turn to him the other also." Matthew 5:38-39 "And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward. But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly." Matthew 6:5-6°
5:20 you name 3 examples in the modern era where conflict did not arise even though a new superpower was on the rise. Your 2nd example of the Soviet Union vs the US is just completely inaccurate... they fought a lot of proxy wars and that should definitely count. Why not use the rise of Japan in the 80s and 90s as an example instead?
It'll probably be in the near taiwan as that's where a conflict is likely. Taiwan is surrounded by water, which means naval combat, and I'm pretty sure the US Navy would run the PLAN's pockets.
@@daniloalves1139well, fighting with your hands tied and having no clear big target to hit is one thing. In a no holds bar situation. The CCP can cry with their dreams of having some decent navy be like the Moskva.
2:04 hell no. Athens was already an established power by that time. It wasn’t the rise of Athens that caused the Spartans to attack, it was the stagnation of Athens and recent military disasters that caused Sparta to miscalculate that it was worth the risk to attack an equal power in the region.
It was an informative and wonderful introduction video that was labeled to dangers ,flash, and triggered points between China 🇨🇳 and the US 🇺🇸.. as strengths competition .. Atomic terrifying exchange amongst world power houses right now preserving global peace...smartness Taiwan 🇹🇼 created its usefulness for both China and America in meantime...thank you for sharing
Even if we take for granted that China are on a declining path, a dying superpower is hardly any less likely to start a war. Small things like, almost zero chance of it going well, are no reasons to not do it for an oligarch. Just see Putin....
There's one rise of power to the second largest economy threatening the US that didn't end up in any war and wasn't mentioned in this video - Japan in the 1980s. Japan's economy went south in the 1990s and was never able to overtake the US. With China's economy now in great trouble, isn't this a more relevant example to consider?
Thats because the USA actively hindered Japanese currency and the economy. Another great example of american imperialism and how they treat their “Allies”
A number of scholars have criticized the application of the Thucydides trap to US--China relations. For instance, Richard Hanania, a research fellow at Columbia University, has argued that there is no Thucydides Trap between the United States and China because China's ambitions are limited primarily to combating internal issues, signifying that China does not pose a significant threat to US interests.
This is what happens when you get armchair/TH-cam historians. Particularly when they try to apply it to current events. They watch the current news cycle and read about past wars without proper knowledge of how the world actually works today.
I believe that in the information age we are more than capable of talking ourselves back from the edge of oblivion. If a deadly accident does occur between us, I believe it's more probable that we forgive and forget.
As an American I’m happy we are a net food importer. China however is not. This in combination with the fact that the US has controls of the seas means that China wouldn’t be able to sustain a war without starving. So hopefully they do not attack Taiwan, I don’t want people to starve.
You have it backwards as being a net food importer isn't a good thing and US is now also one starting this year at least according to USDA. China obviously isn't going to starve just because someone controls some seas as civilian ships can't be stopped without it being a war crime and they can probably get all the grain and other food from Russia they need to. So no, food probably would not play a major role in a conflict between China and the US.
@@cyberfunk3793I don't don't stopping civilian ships is a war crime, sinking them that's a different story though but even then as shown in both world wars and many wars before and since its usually low on the list.
@@shamargentle5801 Well anyway I don't think even if ships could be stopped it would stop China as Russia is right next door and probably eager to help.
@cyberfunk3793 That's a good point, that's if Russia has the stuff to spare or in a position too seeing as how their war is going so bad, energy wise, still a large portion of China's oil comes through the sea which they can't protect outside of the South China Sea
Anglo-Zanzibar War, Operation Desert Storm, Second Schleswig War, Austro-Prussian War, Russo-Georgian War, 2008 invasion of Anjoun, Football War, 1971 Indo-Pakistani War, Six Day War Need me to list more?
What does it mean?: It will be WW3. How can it happen? USA inserts itself into the Chinese civil war. Why does it happen? The US 's hegemonic obsession When might it happen? Circa 2027 +/- 2. (according to one US Gen.) Where would it happen? On the lands of the 2 protagonists in the end. But starts on Taiwan Island.
The sickest thing is that Russia and China refer to the wrongs they suffered from Germany and Japan. And these countries are doing what Germany and Japan are doing.
I think you have your history confused. While you might have a point with Russia (they felt threatened by growing NATO and needed a war, just like Imperial Germany felt threatened by a rising Russia and needed ww1), you missed the mark with China. In the modern context it is China that is the rising power and America which wishes to trigger a war over Taiwan in order to stop themselves from being overtaken. This is why you see provocative actions like sending weapons, unofficial contacts, treaties, and the "freedom of navigation" patrols which are in violation of international law (see Article 38 of the UN law of the Sea: Freedom of navigation doesn't exist in a strait when both sides belong to the same country). America says it recognizes one China but it's actions are meant to say the opposite. For context when foreign countries considering doing the same to the USA and recognizing the CSA, they were met with threats of war by the Lincoln administration.
For those not paying attention: China has twice in the last two weeks, moved military equipment through waters between Japanese territorial islands in Okinawa. China wants the US or its allies to fire the first shot.
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@wargraphic643 there is 1 quick way to end a war with china. and the Americans are quite capable of doing it. And you dont even need nukes but is equally devastating. You just hit the 3 Gorges Dam and it will flood a 1000 mile length and flood out most of the center of china as well as their cities, their rice fields, and military bases and air bases. It will effect 400 million chinese citizens as well in the area. China is done effectively after that.
Yup make a video on 1971 Pakistan war 😅hope you will do it soon
Wow, you got purchased or your writer is pro US. You are missing A LOT of back story for all of these examples. As example, the atoll was known as off limits so they shined a laser, the US shoots warning shots so what's worse?
I think neither the US nor China can afford a war, because of covid, debt, taking in too much immigrants, the Hawai'i fire and all the above... too many things have happened. I'm smoking weed, having fun... but at the same time, I'm thinking about the possible war
It will probably start with a simultaneous attack against Japan, Taiwan, and Philippines. Involving mass firebombing of the population centres on mass, to exterminate the local population.
1:20 - Chapter 1 - The ancient trap
2:20 - Mid roll ads
4:00 - Back to the video
7:45 - Chapter 2 - Gray zone, taiwan strait
12:25 - Chapter 3 - Powder keg, the south china sea
16:55 - Chapter 4 - Black swan, tokyo
Thanks for this. The ad part really shows how silly it is & what it says about the channel that includes it.
@@mopnemwhat?
@@mopnem well everybody got bills to pay
@@mopnemI just skipped to 4:00
Nerd
Personally I think a mistake is more likely to set off an escalation. North Korea launches an ICBM over Japan, it falls short and hits Japan instead. Phillipines try to run a China ship blockade and rams one of them instead. In addition, China seems to prefer the salami tactic, periodically slicing off a piece in order to avoid provoking a response. But frankly, I thought Russia was going to do that in Ukraine after 2014.
Good read
Salami... I've been in the army for 16 years and I've worked with intel analysts "dated 1 for a while" I've never heard this but it makes so much sense.
@@brs690probably a Perunism.
@@brs690 I can't credit for the name. China reminds me of the bully that keeps taking your pen, cutting in front of you, eating your lunch, copying your homework, reneging on a promise, to see how much he can get away with. And then when you belt him one he goes running to the authorities crying that he did one little thing and you over reacted.
Indubitably
The more time passes, the more I feel like the creators of Fallout were actually potentially onto something with their vision of the future.
They knew a lot to say the least.
I wanted my 1950s atomic age first….this is bullshit.
It’s much easier to show apocalyptic visions rather than the complexities of black swan events. Yr comment kinda doesn’t add much to fallout or other similar narratives
Poor Alaska gonna get invaded 😮
@@mopnem Most fictional stories are ultimately warnings and cautionary tales. Even if they have no real basis in reality or potential to become our reality it doesn't mean they should be ignored. They have very valuable lessons to teach us and often give us ideals to aspire towards. The best ones afford us the opportunity to look inward and reflect on the actual world we live in. Personally, I'd much rather humanity's not-so distant future more closely resemble Mass Effect or Star Trek than Fallout or Warhammer 40k.
The examples you give early on of 'unintended consequences' (WW1, the Franco-Prussian war), both had powerful factions pushing for war and looking to incite one, Von Hotzendorf was the Austrian chief of staff and petitioned the Kaiser to go to war with Serbia about 30 times in the year prior to the outbreak of WW1, Bismarck was actively manipulating the French to declare war in order to facilitate German unification, and Napoleon III was urged by his wife to go to war to improve national prestige. Not sure about the Russo-Japanese war though, don't know much about it beyond the broad narrative
I think he meant what happens after with each and that why he talked about red lines and each side misunderstanding each other and things escalating with Von Hotzendorf for example i doubt if you had asked him in before the war that he believed invading Serbia was going to lead to Austria and Germany going to war with Britain and the USA. World war I is probably one of the best examples of a situation spiraling far beyond what anyone in charge thought would happen, from what it seems Serbian leaders believed Austria's threats were empty because they wouldn't risk war with Russia while on the flip side Austrian leaders believed Russia wouldn't actually get involved as it would mean war with Germany. Yes Von Hotzendorf wanted war with Serbia but that from what historians say atleast he seemed to have believed a war with Serbia was just that a war with Serbia and not the start of the full scale war between the central powers and the Entente.
After all if Russia had behaved the way it seem Von Hotzendorf thought they would the Austrian - Serbian war or whatever it would have been called would just have been another regional war in Europe like so many others.
Every soldier/politican should be made to play dominos at least once a day.
@@richardbradley2335 No,we need to be allowed as a people to Will Smith politicians in our respective countries,world would be much nicer place...
You're leaving out the part where Bismarck had been delaying war from the 1850's.
Doesn't change the impact of the idea.
Plus we know China is already waging a soft war against the West, and Chinas defense ministry has publicly released plans to be the sole superpower at the end of the 2030s. They've laid out their path to war.
In the United States although I haven't heard of any specific examples I would be willing to bet my entire paycheck that there are several high-ranking military officials who are gunning for a war with China. You pretty much bet your bottom dollar that someone in power is gunning for war 24/7 in the United States.
A post apocalyptic wars is like a mad max. The term you want is “apocalyptic war” given that “post-apocalyptic”’ has to have an apocalypse before it starts for it to be “posterior” to.
China damming up the north Mekong River and screwing over a bunch of countries in South-East Asia could also lead to conflict.
What conflict? Laos and Cambodia is basically on Chinese payroll. Vietnam is too busy fighting over the Chinese support, the Western support, and the home rule factions.
@@lazysunside All those countries you listed have experience severe environmental and economic issues to the dams. Maybe when their leaders figure out that China is only out for itself, they will join the US and Philippines.
laos and cambodia maybe but vietnam is growing closer to the US@@lazysunside
@@admiralkaede Laos has been decoupling from China lately. They've even started to build manufacturing plants to steal away some of the manufacturing economy from China. Vietnam is doing the same.
China has also laid claim to a lot of the air space and ocean that Vietnam legally owns. The 9 dashes line causes a lot of conflict with Vietnam. I forget if it's Laos or Cambodia but one of them is a pretty good ally to Vietnam too.
So the damn would cause massive damage to all three, Laos and Vietnam are trying to take away part of China's economy, and the 9 dashes puts them at arms with Vietnam while being real allies with a country China has been kind of earning favor with.
@@admiralkaede they are indeed, or at least trying to. It doesn't mean factionalism doesnt exist within the country. They are closer to Israel than the US
It's important to remember that it'll be the governments who'll be doing the fighting while us the people are the ones dying
Are you a service member in the force?
Er no it will be us fighting
Xi and Biden won't be stepping in to the Octagon
Welcome to Always.
@stugnabulah4873 The war will come to you.
@stugnabulah4873 You may think that you are not going anywhere, but if the war meant that conscription was started it would probably be like during the Vietnam War where if guys refused to go they were sent to Federal Prison, so either way you would be going somewhere, either into combat or into prison.
I've entered this comment a few times and it is intended for @stugnabulah4873, but every time it shows up attached to your comment instead. I hope that he sees it.
I'd love a Ridge wallet, but it's inhumane to keep moths in one, as there is no living space for them compared to an old school leather wallet.
Agreed
Maybe Ridge will make a wallet with a light inside for us Lepidoptera finance based humans.
Thanks!
"Staying with Japan, it was the Empire's continued expansion into the Pacific that lead to United States entering WWII." That's an unusual way of phrasing the Empire of Japan attacked the United States and then declared war upon them.
Yeah the Thuydides trap doesn’t work very well in practice since it’s mostly the rising power who is the aggresor, if a war were to break out between China and the US it is very unlikely that the US would be the one to instigate it.
I believe that he was referring to the decades of tension between the US and Japan before WW2 that saw the US and Japan competing for influence in the Pacific and China while forging alliances with other powers in the region aimed at containing each other. This culminated in the US launching an oil embargo against Japan in 1940 to punish Japan for continuing its war to conquer China. This embargo resulted in Japanese war planners calculating that in order to continue the war against China, they would need to conquer several European colonies in SE Asia to capture their strategic resources (oil, rubber, etc). Doing this would inevitably draw the US (who could easily intervene via the Philippines) into the war. Thus the Japanese war planners opted for a pre-emptive strike against every major US base in the Pacific/SE Asia (including Pearl Harbor) with the intention of crippling the US Navy long enough for Japan to conquer SE Asia. From here SE Asia’s resources would be used to both prosecute the war in China and hold off the US. This series of events is what the video is trying to draw connections to.
Well it's not wrong either. The expansion led America to be vary of Japan's actions, increasing their influece around Pacific, which led to Japan thinking escalation was inevitable and thus inducting the first strike with Pearl Harbor.
In fact it was oil and rubber
America had been sending heaps of those resources, as well as steel and iron ore, to Japan for years up until Manchuria, and when the Japs made it into "Manchukuo" the Americans cut trade ties with them to slow down the expansion of the Japanese empire, which made the Japanese feel like they were stabbed in the back by the West (again), so they suprise-attacked Pearl Harbour.
It should be said that many in the top brass, including Admiral Yamamoto, who oversaw the PH surprise attack, were against bringing America into the war because their industry could go war-time real quick and if that happened, Japan had 6 months to beat the American navy or risk losing all their gains
As Yamamoto said himself "I fear we have awakened a sleeping giant and filled it with terrible resolve"
Japan really did the historical equivalent of sucker punching the biggest dude at the bar and then absolutely getting rocked over 4 years.
I think that one major flashpoint missed off the list is the Indian-Chinese border dispute. That has seen localised conflict between patrols for years, thankfully stopped before escalation, but it doesn't take much.
Further, the Kashmir issue could plunge Pakistan and India into a conflict that China uses as a distraction to take, by force, lands they claim, which, is miscalculated, could lead to a wider conflict.
The difference between now and the first half of the 20th century is taking into account nuclear weapons. Any nation that has a nuclear arsenal has to take into account that if they get into a shooting war with another nuclear armed nation that the ultimate escalation is a distinct probability.
A possibility, yes, but I don't believe either China or the US would resort to that. Even if one disregards China's "no first use" policy, it doesn't really improve their situation. They would be gambling they could fire off some nukes and the US would negotiate rather than escalate, which is about as safe as betting you have a royal flush without looking at your cards.
@@ajitadonismanilal9105i feel you, id like a bit of a warning though so i have time to gather my end of the world party favors
look at it this way, china has 1 big weakness, the 3 gorges dam. you bust that dam with missiles and it floods out the entire center of china along that 1000 mile length of the river and china is done. if you see 1 american aircraft carrier sunk, that 3 gorges dam is as good as busted flooding cities, chinese rice paddies, air fields and military bases. taiwan already wrote up the plan if china attacks they hit that dam.
@ajitadonismanilal9105 then do something to make it less shitty.
@@ajitadonismanilal9105 you might think it's noble or reasonable to hate humans like that, but in reality, this makes you the same as the common sociopath or serial killer.
What a fantastic statement at the end. If this video taught me anything, it is that the future is the finest shade of grey.
True but that’s true for everything. There’s plenty of just natural forces that have a non zero chance of insanity aswell
I learned how to pad a video essay.
20:20 "The Winnie the Pooh lookalike in Beijing" 😂 You slipped this line in and I'm dying 😂
You can see Simon smiling as he reads that, and there's a cut right after. He probably broke out laughing too.
so not only Command & Conquer Red Alert, but now Command & Conquer Generals. never thought I’d be so reluctant to have my childhood made into reality.
Can i have some shoes
tank china haha
I completely agree, the replacement of a current superpower doesn't occur without conflict. The UK was replaced due to the impacts of two world wars. No superpower gives up control if they think they can win or the victor aligns with their goals
UK giving up its first place to US would be so much less bloody than this, one big reason being in this case, this is a nonwhite power replacing the #1
Warographics is probably my favorite Simon-channel.
Glory to the CCP!
@@txrx1060 😐
Moa we're talkin!
@@txrx1060cool 😂
@@txrx1060China numbah 1!!
But 95% of they females are prostitutes. Ez clap
Actually factboi, if a China-US War happens it will be "apocalyptic", the "post-apocalyptic" part comes afterward for the survivors roaming the wasteland.
A *huge* part of the reason why the Cold War never turned hot is that that could've *easily* ended humanity.
Also the fact that it went hot in other countries as proxies... The video is simply wrong that this specific power struggle didnt lead to war. It did. Multiple times.
@@Srt092 The Cold War never led to a larger general war though, because a conventional war in Europe would have inevitably escalated to a nuclear war due to the existential nature of the conflict for the many nuclear powers involved. This same dynamic doesn't exist in the US-China rivalry, which makes nuclear war far less likely, but makes a larger conventional war more likely.
@@Srt092Semantics
Yeah, the dread of "War being inevitable" is very much like what it was in WWI or any other war in the last 200 years. You can always tell when major war is coming, you just don't know the trigger point (As you stated, people tend to look at one thing as the trigger and it turns out they were wrong...except for the "lucky" person).
My hope is that it ends quietly. We are in a new Cold War. And I hope it ends just as quietly
@@breguera77be careful what you wish for. "Quickly" could mean the end of humanity
@@johnathan6642 I said “quietly” not “quickly”
The problem with nukes reminds me of the line in Inner Space. "So what. Everyones got em, nobody's got the balls to use them."
Until there's an accident
or some madman don't got this memo and used it openly, looking at you putsolini, kimdeki tojo and xitler.
@BULLYMAGUIRE. yes it did
@@lsp6032Kim's nukes can't threaten anyone aside from South Korea. Yes, it would be a very bad day for a lot of people in Seoul, but it would be unlikely to drag the whole world into a nuclear war.
Thankfully the odds of this becoming a Nuclear War are slim to none since, unlike Russia, China not only has less nukes, but also a strict don’t strike first policy (this is a extremely sensible policy). The US is equally reluctant to use nukes. So while a Pacific war with China will cost greatly in terms of blood, treasure, and military resources, it will unlikely result in the destruction of human civilization. Along as China waits in till the pipelines into Russia are built a Pacific war won’t even destroy it’s economy within a month making the use of nukes by far the worse choice.
😂😂 you think china will stick to no strike first policy in case of war
@@AS-wd5hb After the US having first struck with their failed as intended bioweapon, China has that right to retaliation.
@@AS-wd5hb well yeah, considering the very real reasons (such as not wanting their entire nation destroyed), they put up the policy in the first place. Even a limited nuclear strike on China would be way more devastating to their nation, than any realistic consequence a conventional war can bring (a successful mainland invasion of China is not possible without the use of WMDs). The fact that roughly 70% of China’s land is mountains and deserts means that China is way more vulnerable to Nuclear strikes than either Russia, or the US. Any more incredibly dumb questions?
@@Rob-iz6nm even if what you said about the real number of nuclear weapons and shelters is actually true (neither are cheap you know), China’s cities and farmland would still be a radioactive wasteland, which would still mean the destruction of China’s civilization. The primary use of having nuclear weapons is to deter their use in the first place (at least planetside).
@@AS-wd5hbyes, precisely because they have less nuclear weapons. They have no choice. Any threats they make would not be credible. Besides the whole idea is to deter a strike or for counter coercion
Historically speaking, it’s destined to happen.
"all these Cassandra's"😂🤣 thats a new one for me.. Simon ur my favorite brit. Keep up the great and hilarious work from ur fan in Texas
If this ever happens, I'm getting popcorn and hoping I could finish it before it (and myself) gets irradiated.
I'm not too worried about a war with China becoming nuclear. Possibly very bloody and far longer than most expect, yes. But nuclear, no.
It would be the first time 2 super powers stepped into open conflict with 1 another inevitably pulling other nations in starting ww3. It's a conflict that would devastate the world and one that nobody should want.
Well, yes it would be the first time that WW3 would occur...
It's ALREADY happening. China's New World Order is a part of their creation of BRICS and why the G20 wants in. The New Development Bank of Shanghai China is China's version of the World Bank (under Chinese authoritarian rule). (BRICS is Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and the G20 is Saudi Arabia, Iran...) We are ALREADY in WWIII.
This war will likely be the deadliest in history. It might actually be the war to end all wars.
I don't think a war between the US and China will lead to ww3. For sure, US will have many allies on its side, but who's fighting alongside China? North Korea? Russia will gladly sit on the sidelines and play cheerleader, much like China is doing right now about Ukraine.
Imagine Having to Bash A China Man's Face In with the Butt of Your Gun in a desperate Struggle for Survival in some Far off Distant Fxcked up place like in Ww2...
YES !!!! I was hoping you were going to cover this?!?!? Thank you Simon
I don't know if the rise of a new power leaves the older power fearful or if the new power is so desperate to be recognized as a power that they continually push until war is inevitable.
the first one is true BCS USA has like dozens of military bases encircling mainland China you can find map about it in Google
Spot on its a bit of both
Can blame US for not wanting to be overtaken and China for wanting to become a superpower but in this scenario US is being provocative on Taiwan issue they literally acknowledge one China and at the same time tryna support a break away region
New power doesn't want wat. Old power wants war desperately now before new power becomes too powerful. Old power knows that new power is progressing so much that even next 5 years can make them 1.5x more powerful than they are today.
if that was the case why would the US not have invaded before they had nukes @@DK-ev9dg
Kudos to Morris M. Excellent script. Simon as always does a brilliant job reading (no sarcasm, reading without monotony is harder than people think).
I'm not trying to belittle anyone but simply expressing myself (while it is still legal), but this form of presentation is equally hard to listen to. No natural inflections and emotions is monotonous, but for me forcing a fake enthusiasm is equally bad. I find it hard to listen to, it is like listening to an AI voice. I talk like this for a minute or two after a shot of americano. But to go on overly expressive in a constant manner feels extremely fake. Why don't people just speak like they would in real life to other people? I like to listen to videos while working and presentation like this quickly become background noises for me, and I usually find myself getting irritated and wanting to stop the video, doesn't matter what topic it is. But videos with natural speech are very engaging and I could hear them for hours while my hands work by themselves. Just sharing, peace friend.
The book "2034: the novel of the next world war" does a really interesting job of addressing some of the flash points and potential causes of a conflict like this.
I just don't see the US sending a carrier fleet into the Taiwan Straight after the loss of a destroyer or dropping the first nuke. Truth can be stranger than fiction but I just don't see the levels of strategic stupidity written about in that book. Hard to believe it was written by someone who served in the Navy.
Wasn't that one of the metro books or is there another series that takes place in that time
It's a terribly written book but does give insight into the mindset of US military leaders given who the co-author is. It does not inspire confidence for the self awareness of our military leaders.
"From that time Jesus began to preach, and to say, Repent: for the kingdom of heaven is at hand." Matthew 4:17
"Ye have heard that it hath been said, An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth: But I say unto you, That ye resist not evil: but whosoever shall smite thee on thy right cheek, turn to him the other also." Matthew 5:38-39
"And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward. But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly." Matthew 6:5-6°
The book says 2034, but the reality is 2024-early 2025.
Most enlightening video on geopolitics. Keep up the good work!
Can y’all plz do an in-depth video on the Korean War?
I can always rely on Warographics for my daily dose of existential anxiety 😁
"The US meekly turning a blind eye..."
That would be a foolish gamble with poor odds.
every time simone lower his voice it gives me the chills of what to come !
That would be a lot of fun. Very exciting!
I think the hottest flashpoint is being overlooked and its not between the West and its Allies and China. China has significant territorial disputes with Russia in Manchuria, and Eastern Siberia has lots of valuable water and mineral resources that China would very much like to have. Meanwhile Russia is looking very weak right now and is exhausting itself in Ukraine while the US and its allies are looking very strong and united. If China wants to make a territorial grab using military power I think its most likely target right now is Russia, especially if an internal collapse of the Russian government sets them up with a golden opportunity for an easy win and a live-fire test run for their military without risking their critical trade relations with the West.
Or ... China maybe coerces Russia in its weakened state to act along with it to attack the US and allies.
While I think that’s a lukewarm flashpoint atm, I fully agree that if Russia looks unable to sustain itself and more and more dependent on China, and it looks like Russia’s Federation will fall to internal collapse or Western interference, China would definitely join on the “side” of the West or on its own eventually as an excuse for a land grab. I think it would be important to have Japan in a stronger military position by then to compete with Chinese and potentially North Korean expansion into these regions, interrupting the birth of a new communist block like WWII caused.
At the moment that does not look to be the case, as the CCP wants to look strong on paper with Russia as it’s ally to ward off conflict with the US, and I think China believes that they can get what they want in some capacity at the moment, if not today then in the coming years. If something erupts between these groups (Russia weary of these moves, starting to feel more like a second class partner in this arrangement, one obscene overstep by China over Russian territory and resources), then the dynamic could change quickly.
I agree. We are China's golden goose. China produces nearly every widget that Americans have come to love and expect. In short the American and Chinese economic futures are dependent upon each other for success. Greed might not keep the two nations on the same side of every military action, but more than likely greed will help prevent war between the two. Russia collapsing is a win/win for both China and the US.
Let's hope that none of the other potential 'flash points' becomes an issue.
China has sided with Russia for the same reason they have sided with United States corporations, to seize control by manipulation of the government of that country. Afterall, the incompetent idiot and his crime family have receives over $100 million from china to manipulate policy and control of the United States.
@@blackwindfarms china controls the United States. Thanks to the commie pedophile clinton, china now owns most of our mines in the United States, owns or has controlling interest in all our food processors and owns hundreds of thousands of acres of farm/ranch land literally around our most secretive bases in the United States, to the boundary fences of all these bases. The previous owners were forced to sell or their land was condemned and given to china by our local, state and federal governmental officials. China has acquired more land over the last 2 1/2 years than the previous 30 years combined, and the majority around secret military installations. China controls our government, food, corporations and us.
Excellent video as always Simon. Thanks! On the other hand, you've significantly increased my anxiety level, and after watching this video I am not going to sleep as soundly as usual tonight... Still, it's better to be informed than to be ignorant.
Enjoy your ignorance
9:40 It isn't only Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China. It is also the UN's position. It is also the USA's position (read the Three Communiques).
And the taiwanese people's position ? Why not let them decide their fate.
@@ronnielittle6573 Beijing will not part with Taiwan. Ever. That's why.
@@horridohobbies oh they will part it. The CCP will be resigned to the dust bin of history.
That's the problem then, countries that are culturally aligned, same history, and one side doesn't want to let go when some of its people want a different future. China/Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine, United Kingdom/Ireland. @@horridohobbies
Another great analysis dude! Really glad to see you sponsored. Thank you for sharing!!
I’d anticipate that China has watched the Russo-Ukrainian and has concluded that limited war doesn’t work. Meaning they’ll either do some hybrid war or an all out offensive in the Pacific like Japan did in 1941 and 42
Why wouldn’t it work? Taiwan is not Ukraine. It’s an island. The west wouldn’t be able to resupply Taiwan unless they get directly involved in the conflict, which would lead to an all out war.
@@thesecretjuice it is much harder to invade an island than it is to defend it. Also amphibious invasions are significantly slower than those over land, meaning the west would have more time to get weapons into Taiwan
@@blackXhawksXkickXbut Amphibious invasions don't take that long, not long enough for Taiwan's allies to send them extra weapons.
For example, these amphibious invasions went very quickly after they were launched: Operation Overlord, the D-Day landings; the UN forces landings at Inchon during the Korean War; and the Allied landings in Italy during WWII (I can't remember the name of the place where they landed, but I know it happened. This one actually reinforces your comment. The Allied forces landed quickly, but the Germans kept them pinned down near their landing sites for months, inflicting a large number of casualties among the Allied soldiers).
@@dinsdalemontypiranha4349 you also have to factor in the time taken to prepare the invasions. Overlord took years of planning and training. And many months of logistical preparations. Our spy satellites are very good and will spot these efforts. Giving us at least a couple months to get weapons in. It’ll also give Taiwan the time it needs to mine the landing beaches and emplace obstacles
it being an island makes it MUCH HARDER to invade cross strait invasions are a nightmare and the Taiwan strait is FAR bigger then the english channel also taiwan has mountains that are VERY easy to have gorrila fighters and defenses in also taiwan has been preparing for over 60 years while ukraine has only started 5 or so years ago and the US is VERY likely to get involved even if it will be an all out war ukraine being lost sucks taiwan being lost would be a MAJOR problem for the world the US and all US allies they are not even remotely the same @@thesecretjuice
Topic suggest: the many unusual misadventures of the Russian Second Pacific Squadron on its epic voyage to its fate in the Straits of Tsushima.
Although its would be best done as a cold read which is not really Warographics style.
You may have already seen this video, but Drachnifel (a navy history buff) did a great video on that, including "that damned Kamchatka"
@@josephbolcome5462 Drachinifel's videos are really good.
I don’t see this war happening if China is a rational actor. China is dependent on Western trade and imports way too many resources via the Strait of Malacca. Also is the consideration of Alliances, the US has an economic bloc that will sanction China as well as Japan/South Korea/Australia/UK willing to support militarily and others like India/Philippines/Vietnam/NATO willing to assist in other ways. China has… North Korea(?). The cost/benefit for China is nonexistent other than Xi’s ego and desire to out cult of personality Chairman Mao.
See, many analysts thought similar reasons would stop Putin from going ahead with an invasion of Ukraine, and here we are.
If anything, China will take its time to prepare, but I don't see it in terms of "if", but of "when".
People were saying the same thing about the European empires in the lead up to world war 1
Isn't the US moving towards trade with Mexico in response to China's refusal to pressure Russia into renewing that grain deal?
India would probably join such a war militarily though not immediately
China is dependent on western trade but we are dependent on them for manufacturing so who would lose out most.
So if all sides say "We won't start anything, but by god, we'll finish it!"
All that is needed is for someone to start it.
The idea that war with China would be some massive world-war scale conflict is silly. China simply does not have the ability to project enough power to keep up such a fight. Say they invade Taiwan; that would last a couple of weeks. Why? Because their sea-lift capability would be dismantled easily and then they'd have no ability to supply any troops that actually made it ashore. Additionally, their economy would absolutely collapse and they would be cut off from their main supplies of oil, natural gas, and food. Yes, China relies on food imports.
I do wonder why this set of realities is ignored, China literally depends on the freedom of navigation as facilitated by the United States Navy since WW2 and US allies since. As such by default that same naval alliance can cut it off in totality. Russia will certainly be in no state to help as they currently depend on (exploitative) support from China.
@gardnert1 Wake up Chang
@@cynthiaherbst3909 Exactly. And China really has no reason to see Russia succeed at anything, except maybe at taking out their mutual enemy for them. Any support China gives (and they are aiding Russia directly, along with North Korea and Iran... a fun team to be on) is predicated on China getting what it wants. And it seems like they got it: they now run the show at the BRICS club.
If ww3 broke out Biden and Xi should battle 1v1 on Halo 2 Lockout.
Well both examples after the US overtaking Britain happened after the Development of Nukes. Nukes make Wars between great powers alot less likely. At least less likely to escalate to all out war like we saw in WW2.
Not sure. Russia can nuke Ukraine out of existence and win the war in a day. However they are not using it.
US economy surpassed the UK by late 19c. There was a period fifty years prior where the royal navy could have sunk the us navy but chose not to. There were instances where the two could have gone to war but did not. There's a book called safe passage by Cory shake that goes into this period. Worth listening to her talk 😊
If USA 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳 war on Taiwan 🇹🇼 will escalate to mainland China 🇨🇳 and direct war between USA 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳 then 100% chances nuclear war will happen against USA 🇺🇸 China 🇨🇳 and become a both countries will be ground zero. Russia 🇷🇺 and India 🇮🇳 will likely to be lead new rules based order in the world 🌎. 🙏 pray for NO WAR especially between USA 🇺🇸 and China 🇨🇳. God bless USA 🇺🇸. Keep in mind War is always painful and lots of lives will loose and sometimes regret a lot after war is over. Thank you for reading my comment. 🙏✌️
Ah fact boy to give me my dose of informative anxiety B) Love the content
Thanks for presenting on this. It is something to make people think about.
The problem with the Peloponnesian War anecdote is that Sparta and Athens were right next each other. The US could foreseeably ignore some amount of aggression by China against small regional powers, just as China does with the US.
American colonial islands and naval bases are right next to china
I wouldn't be so sure about that. America has a habit of giving zero fucks and bombing belligerent nations to traumatic shells.
@@jeopardized9293 Those territories wouldn't be high enough value of targets for China to rationally invade. Imperial Japan invaded colonial territories because it built an empire scale military before it built an empire scale economy.
@@enlighteneddoggo5803 America has over 100 thousand troops stationed on islands around China (Japan, Guam, Philippines, Singapore), hundreds of ships and thousands of planes stationed there too. The military might of the American empire is right on China’s doorstep. If China wishes to build its own sphere of influence then it must wage a war with the United States.
The US sat by a few times in the past and let a bully nation expand on its neighbors unhindered. We paid the price for that inaction. No pacific country or alliance without the US backing could protect the rights and freedoms of the smaller countries in the Pacific. We have to police China or risk all of east Asia being pressed under it's thumb
No one in the comments has finished this video yet but we’re all looking forward to it
I am surprised that so little attention was given to North Korea as a potential flashpoint, given its potential volatility: The populace is starving the NK economy is terrible and given that the official diplomatic status is one of Armistice, not peace a war could resume at any time. ANY conflict with NK inevitably drags in China.
china doesnt really care at ALL about kim wanting south Korea they are a buffer that is ALL that matters china is HIGHLY unlikely to want north Korea to start a war as 1 if NK starts to loose they may pull out nukes and that will get NK completely Erased from the world map and that will blow into china 2 NK is likely to use bio weapons and china doubtfully wants DEADLY stuff blowing back into it as well same with chem weapons that also may blow back into china thus the situation in Korea for the US and china is STATUS QUO kim may want war but china does not care because the buffer status is good enough
It's because, bluntly, the people of North Korea doesn't really count in the grand scheme of things and because nobody will help the populace, and without any help coming from the USA or any other country, any North Korean Rebellions would be doomed.
If any change of governement is coming, it will be from the NK army who could be fed up of the Kim Dynasty, and then, they would have to get the support of China.
I know it's harsh.
north korea doesnt have the fuel to run their tanks for a week lol. american airpower would wipe the north koreans out fast also. and the south koreans are armed to the teeth with better more modern weapons. nk has ww2 weapons.
@@giovanni-ed7zq The Ukraine War is proof that a nation equipped with old cold war weapons can hold off a technologically superior enemy for a long time if they are willing to sacrifice men and equipment, both of which North Korea has an abundance of. North Korea is also mountainous and has a massive tunnel network, which would render it even more difficult to bomb into submission than Afghanistan or Vietnam were for America. North Korea might be at a huge disadvantage but it would not be a cakewalk either.
@@goldenfox2486
You must have missed the news about all of the crap being sent to Ukraine from countries all over the world.
Another great video, Simon! Always enjoyed your videos on all of your channels. One thing I want to bring up to your attention is that the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku islands) are not just claimed by Japan and China, it is actually claimed by Taiwan as well. So that could be a cause of some division between Japan and Taiwan
Of course, Taiwan is a part of China.
Simon and Co, i have a topic suggestion. The coming civil war in the United States
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Include promovare plătită
0:03 / 23:17
and "it will be the most appocalyptic war"?!
?!?!
biggest wars are not the wars at sea, but the wars on land, inland.
How Might a US-China War Really Start?"
with the simultaneous sinking of FOUR US Aircraft Carriers
i guess we just need to hope for a new coldwar
implying the cold war ever ended or that even if that one ended there isn't a new one with China already ongoing for years, this own video is kind of proof. China never talks about invading Taiwan or going to war with USA but look how the narrative is sold. USA keeps talking about it all the time
Yup. Almost anything is preferable to a third world war.
Pretty sure we've been in one with China for a while now.
How strong is china really ? Im hearing all these i guess rumors that the ecomony is going down . India , phillipines , japan , us , austrailia , hate you . Wouldnt you wanna start a war you know you can win?
@@joetheox1202Yup, cause everyone keeps finding their half assed spies.
This nuclear apocalypse brought to you by RIDGE WALLET
Yep
China navy sunk
Chip factories destroyed
And we wait 3 years for appliances
Ridge wallets only 6 month delay
It'll be like that scene in Jurassic park III. Where the Spinosaurus is China and the T-Rex is the US.
And the US has a bunch of little velociraptor friends (Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc.) to help them, too! 😊
@@myrlyn1250And the humans in that scene are the Pacific Islands who want nothing to do with this.
Honestly, Japan would be more like an Allosaurus than a mere Raptor.
idk the phillipeans and singapor and vietnam might side with the US while the phillipeans wanted nothing to do with the US and opened up to china but then china kept on bullying them and now they are like American bases are starting to sound VERY helpful right now singapor is one of the few countries able to buy F-35s meaning they are trusted and as for vietnman china and them have a bloody history also china killed vietnam soldiers years ago and bully them too@@PrimericanIdol
China hasn't fought a large scale war for a very, very long time. Although that was then, now China is starting to develop a pretty powerful military. The USA is currently by far the lord of modern warfare with funding and more importantly the experience of fighting in countless conflicts since WW2. Everyone has more to lose with a war, and i hope China's Premier isn't as crazy as Poo tin.
America hasn't won a war in a long time despite their technology and budget. This war would be much closer than you think.
The last time China was in a formal was the same time the US was, WWII. Unless you're leveling everything in your way, it's "counter-insurgency" bullshit. It's not what has been war for thousands of years. I've deployed 3 times to Iraq and Afghanistan. It sucks, but it's not WWII.
We can't even produce our own vehicles. Japanese and Korean brands are more American than US brands, our medical capabilities don't exist, we can't use our own oil, and our technology is stolen every day.
To your last point because it's incredibly stupid, anyone seriously involved in this topic knows that Russia was and almost always will be a regional power. Putin isn't our problem.
The Philippines was a fun TDY though, so I'll take another.
The last war and not police action was desert storm and that was a route..police jerking like Afganistán is impossible when you have cowards strapping vests to kids and shooting from mosques ..that would not be the case here
@@Ryanbmc4Regardless, the US has significantly more experience in fighting a war than China does. The US does have the capability to be more self-sufficient, but that move will take years, if not decades to pivot unfortunately. Then, if there’s no war or conflict is much shorter/smaller than expected, we’ll have hamstrung our economy for little benefit.
Plus, we still have a glaring weakness in our over reliance on Chinese imports of rare earth metals for our smart weapons.
@@Ryanbmc4 At least the USA has been established for many years and the military more or less has continuity since Independence. China really can't say the same and it's essentially untested. Russia is showing us how hard it is to fight a near peer advisory although they're not really a measure of how any other nation will perform. There will be plenty of lessons coming out of Ukraine and it's likely led to the US re organising for facing a real army rather than the counter insurgency stance it had taken. I still back US over China every day of the week at this stage.
Remember all the books written about Japan becoming the worlds new top superpower in the 80's and early 90's? Most people don't seem too.
I imagine itd be like a giant battle of britain
Ah yes, Trade Routes, the goal of geopolitics.
Welp, money makes the world go round.
Well, it is US naval doctrine to keep the sea lanes open.
Article 5 of the treaty with Japan can be upheld, by supporting Japanese forces in their retaking of the islands, without meaning US troops direct involvement. We can provide Japan with more than just boots on the ground, while maintaining our commitment to the Tokyo-DC alliance. It could take on a Ukrainian model
China would then have to decide how bad it wants to keep those islands. If their goals of humiliating Japan and/or a rupture in the alliance aren't in the offing.
Agreed. I highly doubt China can “humiliate” Japan though. They’re going to be WW2 Soviet Union, throwing bodies in a meat grinder vs the Japanese.
Chinese demographic issue is also important to note
Your videos are terrific. They’re interesting and teach me a lot. Thanks for posting.
6:21 war theorists do not agree much with each other on the causes of war but will readily concede that wars happen if one side sees an opportunity. So the answer is to not offer that opportunity and maintain a balance a power
I personally think China feels that putting pressure on it's claim is mostly an appeasement to those in the CCP that refuse to accept the idea of backing down. It would appear too weak and remove pressure from Taiwan. They likely just want Taiwan to hurt due to challenging their authority. Kind of like the U.S. and Cuba, but this time Cuba has a major backer.
They have to. In the Chinese constitution it states the government must work towards reunification of lost lands. Which causes issues with Russia since there is territory from the Qing dynasty that Russia took from China, when the country was really weak.
Should a leader not be found trying to reunify China they will be executed and the military will be put in charge.
Cuba wasn't the result of a Civil War though. A more comparable situation would be that between the USA and the CSA where the Lincoln administration threatened any country that recognized the CSA with war, which is not that different from China's threat to cut off diplomatic contact with any nation that recognizes Taiwan.
It would be like US and Cuba; if the Confederates had fled to Cuba, and due to foreign interference, Lincoln and subsequent US presidents could never wipe out the rebellion.
Which is incredibly bizarre as China did a good job preventing Taiwan to become an independent country and be reliant on the Chinese economy, essentially controlling them without having to strong arm them.
"From that time Jesus began to preach, and to say, Repent: for the kingdom of heaven is at hand." Matthew 4:17
"Ye have heard that it hath been said, An eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth: But I say unto you, That ye resist not evil: but whosoever shall smite thee on thy right cheek, turn to him the other also." Matthew 5:38-39
"And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward. But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly." Matthew 6:5-6°
Both countries rely on each other. The US and China aren’t going to war.
Let’s go!!! I get to die, don’t have to do it myself. That’s the ultimate outsourcing your job to china.
5:20 you name 3 examples in the modern era where conflict did not arise even though a new superpower was on the rise. Your 2nd example of the Soviet Union vs the US is just completely inaccurate... they fought a lot of proxy wars and that should definitely count.
Why not use the rise of Japan in the 80s and 90s as an example instead?
It'll be fun to watch play out on the news, give something new to talk about at work 😁
I don't want to be provocative (too much). Was the Ridge wallet made in China?
Probably.
It'll be over one too many Xinny the Pooh memes
If it stays conventional US is clapping Pooh’s cheeks all day every day
It'll probably be in the near taiwan as that's where a conflict is likely. Taiwan is surrounded by water, which means naval combat, and I'm pretty sure the US Navy would run the PLAN's pockets.
like they did vietnam and Afghanistan right
@@daniloalves1139 chyna lost to Vietnam having every advantage 😂
@@daniloalves1139 Don't think that China would get into guerilla warfare when they are the (unconfirmed) second most powerful military in the world
@@daniloalves1139well, fighting with your hands tied and having no clear big target to hit is one thing.
In a no holds bar situation. The CCP can cry with their dreams of having some decent navy be like the Moskva.
I would love to see a video about how Sao Paulo, Brazil's biggest state, declared independence in the 30s.
2:04 hell no. Athens was already an established power by that time. It wasn’t the rise of Athens that caused the Spartans to attack, it was the stagnation of Athens and recent military disasters that caused Sparta to miscalculate that it was worth the risk to attack an equal power in the region.
It was an informative and wonderful introduction video that was labeled to dangers ,flash, and triggered points between China 🇨🇳 and the US 🇺🇸.. as strengths competition .. Atomic terrifying exchange amongst world power houses right now preserving global peace...smartness Taiwan 🇹🇼 created its usefulness for both China and America in meantime...thank you for sharing
In order for that escalation to occur, China would have to continue rising, but they currently aren't. They've hit a giant brick wall
More like a BRICS wall if you know what I mean
Hoax news
A stagnating China could be more aggressive than a rising China.
Even if we take for granted that China are on a declining path, a dying superpower is hardly any less likely to start a war. Small things like, almost zero chance of it going well, are no reasons to not do it for an oligarch. Just see Putin....
Is it really an "alliance" if your members are fighting? China/India, Iran/Saudi Arabia@@ness6099
There's one rise of power to the second largest economy threatening the US that didn't end up in any war and wasn't mentioned in this video - Japan in the 1980s.
Japan's economy went south in the 1990s and was never able to overtake the US. With China's economy now in great trouble, isn't this a more relevant example to consider?
Your ignorance is in greater trouble
Thats because the USA actively hindered Japanese currency and the economy. Another great example of american imperialism and how they treat their “Allies”
Because America neutered Japan's economy with the Plaza Accords. Trump already tried something similar and it didn't work. China is not Japan.
@@chickennbogies8140I am Japanese and the economy would’ve stopped growing anyways a few years later.
Japan by all means was and still is a US puppet. China isn't and isn't afraid to piss of America. It's different
There is nothing random when it comes to the start of a major or even minor war. It is all calculated, over and over.
"The Great Leap" forward for humanity should be to get rid of pests. Specifically rats, flies, mosquitoes, sparrows, and China.
A number of scholars have criticized the application of the Thucydides trap to US--China relations. For instance, Richard Hanania, a research fellow at Columbia University, has argued that there is no Thucydides Trap between the United States and China because China's ambitions are limited primarily to combating internal issues, signifying that China does not pose a significant threat to US interests.
This is what happens when you get armchair/TH-cam historians. Particularly when they try to apply it to current events. They watch the current news cycle and read about past wars without proper knowledge of how the world actually works today.
I believe that in the information age we are more than capable of talking ourselves back from the edge of oblivion. If a deadly accident does occur between us, I believe it's more probable that we forgive and forget.
Said no one in Ukraine in the past 18 months.
As an American I’m happy we are a net food importer. China however is not. This in combination with the fact that the US has controls of the seas means that China wouldn’t be able to sustain a war without starving.
So hopefully they do not attack Taiwan, I don’t want people to starve.
You have it backwards as being a net food importer isn't a good thing and US is now also one starting this year at least according to USDA. China obviously isn't going to starve just because someone controls some seas as civilian ships can't be stopped without it being a war crime and they can probably get all the grain and other food from Russia they need to. So no, food probably would not play a major role in a conflict between China and the US.
@@cyberfunk3793 not only food but energy sufficient with no enemies surrounding them
@@cyberfunk3793I don't don't stopping civilian ships is a war crime, sinking them that's a different story though but even then as shown in both world wars and many wars before and since its usually low on the list.
@@shamargentle5801 Well anyway I don't think even if ships could be stopped it would stop China as Russia is right next door and probably eager to help.
@cyberfunk3793 That's a good point, that's if Russia has the stuff to spare or in a position too seeing as how their war is going so bad, energy wise, still a large portion of China's oil comes through the sea which they can't protect outside of the South China Sea
You guys rock 👍
Excellent video, China seems hell bent on upsetting every other nation in South East Asia. I think Vietnam is also annoyed with Chinese claims.
Bring it on! Full scale... Global... bring it on!
"There is no such thing as a short victorious war, and there never has been."
Hitler tried that and failed
What about the Franco-Prussian War?
Does the Six Day War count?
Americas involvement in ww2 was fairly short comparatively to others and japan surrendered fairly quick after we nuked entire cities..
Anglo-Zanzibar War, Operation Desert Storm, Second Schleswig War, Austro-Prussian War, Russo-Georgian War, 2008 invasion of Anjoun, Football War, 1971 Indo-Pakistani War, Six Day War
Need me to list more?
What does it mean?: It will be WW3.
How can it happen? USA inserts itself into the Chinese civil war.
Why does it happen? The US 's hegemonic obsession
When might it happen? Circa 2027 +/- 2. (according to one US Gen.)
Where would it happen? On the lands of the 2 protagonists in the end. But starts on Taiwan Island.
Support both to fight till last blood.🎉🎉🎉
But Simon you never addressed the ifo hearings, are you also an industry plant?
Alaska invasion at 2077
While this isn't the worst analysis of modern conflict, it is pretty bad.
US=Sparta, China=Athens might be the stupidest analogy I've ever heard.
More like China (Huns maybe?) vs 'final days' Rome.
@@ANobodyatall MAYBE MONGOLS SİMİLAR CHİNESE.
All videos about this topic are like: "Oh no, China is out of control. They may conflict with the US's aggressive efforts of encirclement!"
12:08 I always forget the catalyst for that.
Such a war between China and US would hurt both economically. I don’t think it would come to war.
The sickest thing is that Russia and China refer to the wrongs they suffered from Germany and Japan. And these countries are doing what Germany and Japan are doing.
I think you have your history confused. While you might have a point with Russia (they felt threatened by growing NATO and needed a war, just like Imperial Germany felt threatened by a rising Russia and needed ww1), you missed the mark with China. In the modern context it is China that is the rising power and America which wishes to trigger a war over Taiwan in order to stop themselves from being overtaken. This is why you see provocative actions like sending weapons, unofficial contacts, treaties, and the "freedom of navigation" patrols which are in violation of international law (see Article 38 of the UN law of the Sea: Freedom of navigation doesn't exist in a strait when both sides belong to the same country). America says it recognizes one China but it's actions are meant to say the opposite. For context when foreign countries considering doing the same to the USA and recognizing the CSA, they were met with threats of war by the Lincoln administration.
Has China invaded Japan and killed millions of Japanese citizens?
For those not paying attention: China has twice in the last two weeks, moved military equipment through waters between Japanese territorial islands in Okinawa. China wants the US or its allies to fire the first shot.
Great! Can't wait!
As colonel Tanner in Red Dawn said “Two toughest kids on the block, sooner or later they’re gonna fight”