Thank you very much for the kind words! Lots of instant analysts out there talk nonsense because there are no barriers to entry. We're a research firm staffed by experienced finance professionals and we also happen to produce YT videos, all of which build upon our prior research. This is the way forward. Joe P.
Thank you for that enlightening contribution to the conversation. Yes, SCHD seems to be a pretty good ETF, something we covered here: th-cam.com/video/zaZWpr4hx0w/w-d-xo.html
You mentioned around 14:45 into the video what you can customize the portfolio between growth and income. Can you expand on that? Understanding the "yield on cash", someone who is older and looking for income, would this approach still work? Or is there no time left to allow that portfolio to grow?
That would be a matter of not picking lower yield names as we have done in our industry diversification approach. So you can simply tilt your portfolio selection towards higher yielding names. What's likely is that your dividend growth may not be as strong, though you'd need to run those numbers. We are currently building a "Q score calculator" for Premium subscribers that helps them build their own Quantigence portfolios.
@@Nanalyze Thanks. That makes sense. So it seems like a person with more time for the investment to compound would reap the most benefits. LOL, I guess that makes sense in any context, but you know what I mean.
@@OmaticFever Indeed. Best thing to do here is throw up a spreadsheet and start modeling what income growth looks like for this strategy. It's really quite effective. If you reinvest dividends there's a compounding effect as well. The first year is just your yield, whatever that is - let's say 3-4%. Next year increase by 8%. Next year increase by 8%. Etc. etc. Plus you have capital appreciation as well.
Best sales hat video yet. Yes I’m buying a yearly subscription. My problem has been since I started a year ago ( and some how miraculously stumbled onto your yt channel about two months in) I am always maxing out every spare dime I have into my dividend portfolio. I can buy my subscription….. or another share of cvx and nee ….. middle of the month I’m getting a subscription. I can say from what I’ve gleamed from you guys my portfolio is much more resistant to the volatility. I’ve almost balanced my 12 at 1300.00 each. I’m really enjoying the ride. I don’t do the tech side except in indexes though. I wish I’d started a decade ago. Edit* you had me at “ 400lb bald gorilla craping all over the back yard “😂
The old sales hat works every time ;) You make sure to put your investments first. Put every dime into that dividend portfolio. You can glean plenty of good info on this channel. Once you start to gain some traction, do subscribe. I won't put on my sales hat again but we have a great community and provide a lot of value - from reports to trade alerts, we're always building new and exciting stuff. Ah yes, the 400lb bald gorilla that we all rely on for cheap stuff :) You'll always find our content entertaining as well. (Takes off sales hat.) Joe P.
Back testing is of course historical by nature. Many years ago, I purchased both Ford and GE, (which were both good dividend payers), and then got burned on both the divys and the share price. Interestingly, I bought GE on the same day and at very nearly the same price as Buffet, and still lost money, whereas he made money by hedging. I am curious as to whether Quantigence would have filtered them out prior to their demise vs after the newsprint told us what happened. I realize it can't predict incompetence or internal corruption. Note, I once told a restaurant owner that someone was stealing his food. I only predicted that because that is what his numbers were telling me as compared to other restaurants. Turned out one of his employees was a little too hungry. If Quantigence can be predictive, you will be very rich.
To our knowledge, Ford was never a dividend aristocrat, so they would have never been included in our universe, but GE was until the financial crisis. Typically, our Q-Score metric is very good at detecting red flags. As in, when a Q-Score begins dropping like a rock, the company often cuts their dividend shortly after. You make a great point that back testing is no indicator of the future. No one can truly build a predictive strategy, but we feel Quantigence is a good way to spot red flags - much like your prediction with the restaurant owner :)
We will! We'll be sharing our progress towards establishing an ETF, though there's still more work to do on the strategy. I'd like to see how the CRB strategy performs if we minimize rebalancing to annually and set weighting thresholds as well to minimize turnover. Joe P.
This is great! I just subscribed earlier in the month for the yearly and have been reorganizing my portfolio based on your dividends growth insights from Quantigence. Being ever cautious, and a scientist, I had just started wondering about how this strategy might be recession proof and wanted to read more about the paper behind the theory. What a coincidence 😆
Hey Harry. Joe here. I just emailed you the paper to check out. ;) There's a lot more information than was covered in this video and we'll probably do a few more pieces on it. Great to have you as a subscriber and thank you for the financial support!
Another reason why I'm considering Quantigence: Since I live in Sweden, my broker doesn't allow for the direct purchase of American ETFs. Because of this, I have opted to just pick stocks on my own. My first idea was to just mimic SCHD best I can, but your system seems not only better, but also easier to implement. Edit: I am allowed to buy Blackrock's iShares, but only the German versions. Still, I don't think any of them are as good as SCHD, and buying them would feel like settling for less.
It is easier to implement, yes, and it allows you to tailor the portfolio to your own needs. Very simply and transparently of course. One possible issue. Are you taxed heavily on dividends from U.S. companies? Many global investors in our community have raised this as an issue (some with ways to get around it based on jurisdiction).
@@Nanalyze actually, we have this special account type in Sweden called ISK, where you are only taxed an extremely tiny amount on the total amount of money in your account. It's calculated in a weird way, but I paid less than 0.09% on the account's total worth. So for dividend investning, I think it's absolutely amazing. Not sure how it compares to a Roth IRA.
How do you deal with a situation where a "dividend champion" suddently breaks the dividend growth pattern and the price falls instantly as soon as they announce the next upcoming dividend? As soon as that happens the market reacts and it falls, you don't have time to react
Intuitively that seems to be what happens but it's not always the case. Oftentimes the messaging is vague and we need to analyze the situation and make a decision which sometimes happens before the actual cut even happens. In fact, in recent memory of fallen champions the drop is not always that dramatic which is rather surprising. However, the cut is usually followed by a long slow slide. We have a piece coming out at some point on "Why Dividend Champions Fail." Stay tuned.
@@Nanalyze Thank you! Apart from a situation where you guys as experts see messaging and catch this before the actual cut happens,when the actual cut is announced, what is the best source of this information? In other words, what the best site to get info on the newly approved dividend right away?(as soon as it's announced)
@@МЕГАПоЗиТИВ-й2е Man that's a great question. So this all gets really tricky because each company has different fiscal years and this is measured on an annual basis, not by quarter. So what usually happens is that because dividend champions are high profile, you'll see this banter very quickly in financial news. So it's really a matter of just being engaged with the market which we do for a living. There is no "single source" we use. We also calculate this stuff at least twice a year so we'll catch things that slip through the cracks (perhaps small companies or international ones). It can be complicated which is why we built a strategy around this so we do all the work for you. :)
It's another gimmicky yield trap financial product being peddled to retail investors who pay the massive expense ratio without thinking about what they're actually invested in. There is no free lunch.
Do you provide yearly subscribers with methods to implement the CRB Strategy? Ex. every quarter you send out a notification of how and why to rebalance? Or just Linear strategy at this point?
This is an excellent question. An obvious next step would be to refine the CRB strategy to minimize turnover so that it could more easily be managed manually. I've already spoken with the lads about this. First we're focusing in on getting out our International Champion and Small Cap Champion reports out, then we'll work on refining the CRB strategy. Joe P.
@@JoseNeto-kx5pg Another excellent question. Refining the CRB method is a prerequisite to having an ETF which we're constantly asked about. It's not an easy task, but we're going down that road.
We're glad you enjoyed the video! To have an opinion worth sharing about any ETF out there requires time to research IT. We're happy to do that for paying subscribers on our Discord server ;)
I assume I’d be able to use your product or system called QUANTAGENCE. Having watched this video and how much time it took for your team to design this formula- it seems like it would next to impossible for a lay person to read some long paper on the strategy and execute it. Wouldn’t it be easier for you to just list the stocks to buy each quarter? OR, am I not understanding how your system is to be EASILY used? Im not a total beginner with investing BTW
The Quantigence report will give you all the tools you need to implement the strategy on your own, even as a layperson ;) Essentially, we've done all the work for you, and we simply list the stocks and their Q-scores, along with what we've decided to invest in for our own portfolio. We'll never tell people what stocks to buy, but Quantigence report will help you make your own selections! Any questions, shoot us an email, there's a Contact form on our website. We'll help you out there :) -Wyatt C.
@@Nanalyze thanks for your response. Do you think your Quantigence strategy outperforms the S&P 500 index and/or a modestly aggressive managed fund from a Fidelity broker (admittedly the Fidelity question harder to answer without specifics). Also, if one is changing course quarterly or even yearly with your dividend strategy - doesn’t that expose one to capital gains offsets?
All we can speak to is the outperformance stated in our paper (23 years back test using S&P 500 with linear and CRB methods). Couple things to note. One, we have our own Quantigence portfolio we manage (30 stocks) and our report shows you (among other things) how we put that together. Two, the strategy we use for our portfolio only sells a stock for one reason only - if a company stops increasing dividends. It's extremely simple. We're also in the process of developing further Quantigence reports for paying subscribers including an International Dividend Champions report and a Q-score calculator that includes all stocks in our universe including small cap champions and "up and coming" champions. Thank you for your interest! Joe P.
What is the likely result when an investor selects 10 high dividend yield stocks with the intention of holding them for just one year? Then the holdings are re-evaluated and readjusted each year. Because it's such a short period, this limits the risk a company might not be able to payout. Furthermore, holding a diversified portfolio isn't as important in this scenario. You actually want to hold companies concentrated in one or two industries specifically based on the economic condition at the time. I would think the biggest risk/fatal flaw with this strategy is the potential the share price of any one company might tumble due to bad news of any kind. Any dividend you receive could be wiped out. Even worse, you might end up with a negative net return because of the fallen share price, tax, and costs of trading. I'm sure others have experimented with this idea (and other variations) and discovered it's a stupid idea. Otherwise, everybody would be doing this. What's your thought?
The average number of years the dividend has been increased in our universe is over 40 years. So when you talk about the risk a company might not be able to increase that payout, it seem low based on their track records. Furthermore, our methodology focuses on ranking companies based on the likelihood they'll continue increasing. Regarding everyone taking a prudent and sensible approach to investing, few do. Look around a bit at all the shite being peddled to investors out there and you'll see why most newbie investors today act like speculators, not investors. "Equity bonds" of the type this strategy is invested in made Buffett one of the richest people on this planet. Regarding the two strategies described in this video - CRB and linear - the paper talks about the impact of trading costs while the topic of taxation needs to be probed further in the context of refining the rebalancing algo. Meanwhile, a simple linear strategy with a "never sell unless there's a cut" rule works quite well.
Great info, as always. The relatively new CDGV ETF looks promising but the .33 expense ratio is a deterrent despite the fund beating the market. The cost of the fund adjusting on the fly (quarterly?) and its use of 5 "segment" managers, no doubt. Doesn't follow an index. It seems Capital Group may have attempted to pirate your algorithm. Have you seen this ETF? A Quantigence subscription will cost far less than a .33 expense ratio.
A cursory look shows CGDV is a completely different animal. The 20% allocation to tech and stated possibility of investing in commercial paper means they're taking a completely different strategy which - as you pointed out - takes five managers to run apparently. (Puts sales hat on.) Transparency is a key characteristic of Quantigence. No black box magic happening, just a common sense approach that's backed by industry experience and academic rigor. (Takes sales hat off.)
If Q scores are so good at picking stocks - and I am not saying they aren’t - why not build and publish your own ETF and make the expense percentage of potentially hundreds of millions or billions instead of $50? Edit: by that I mean: I’m sold! Gimme your etf name and I’ll buy
The number of failed ETF managers out there is a long one. When our brand grows large enough to support an ETF, we'll look to issue one. In the meantime, those interested in performance can email us for our paper on Quantigence performance over multiple decades compared to the S&P 500. Thank you for the good idea and support! Joe P.
You need to be subscribed to this channel before reading the below comments. Sorry, we don't make the rules.👮
th-cam.com/users/nanalyze
I can't say enough how much this channel is the best. I unsubscribed from the "Smoke and MIrrors, fluff and fireworks" channels.
Thank you very much for the kind words! Lots of instant analysts out there talk nonsense because there are no barriers to entry. We're a research firm staffed by experienced finance professionals and we also happen to produce YT videos, all of which build upon our prior research. This is the way forward. Joe P.
Great video
Thank you for the positive feedback! Helps us know we're on the right track :) -Wyatt C.
Schd is best and has no subscription, I love it
Thank you for that enlightening contribution to the conversation. Yes, SCHD seems to be a pretty good ETF, something we covered here: th-cam.com/video/zaZWpr4hx0w/w-d-xo.html
Awesome! Nice research, well explained.
Great feedback, thank you!
You mentioned around 14:45 into the video what you can customize the portfolio between growth and income. Can you expand on that? Understanding the "yield on cash", someone who is older and looking for income, would this approach still work? Or is there no time left to allow that portfolio to grow?
That would be a matter of not picking lower yield names as we have done in our industry diversification approach. So you can simply tilt your portfolio selection towards higher yielding names. What's likely is that your dividend growth may not be as strong, though you'd need to run those numbers. We are currently building a "Q score calculator" for Premium subscribers that helps them build their own Quantigence portfolios.
@@Nanalyze Thanks. That makes sense. So it seems like a person with more time for the investment to compound would reap the most benefits. LOL, I guess that makes sense in any context, but you know what I mean.
@@OmaticFever Indeed. Best thing to do here is throw up a spreadsheet and start modeling what income growth looks like for this strategy. It's really quite effective. If you reinvest dividends there's a compounding effect as well. The first year is just your yield, whatever that is - let's say 3-4%. Next year increase by 8%. Next year increase by 8%. Etc. etc. Plus you have capital appreciation as well.
Best sales hat video yet. Yes I’m buying a yearly subscription. My problem has been since I started a year ago ( and some how miraculously stumbled onto your yt channel about two months in) I am always maxing out every spare dime I have into my dividend portfolio. I can buy my subscription….. or another share of cvx and nee ….. middle of the month I’m getting a subscription. I can say from what I’ve gleamed from you guys my portfolio is much more resistant to the volatility. I’ve almost balanced my 12 at 1300.00 each. I’m really enjoying the ride. I don’t do the tech side except in indexes though. I wish I’d started a decade ago.
Edit* you had me at “ 400lb bald gorilla craping all over the back yard “😂
The old sales hat works every time ;) You make sure to put your investments first. Put every dime into that dividend portfolio. You can glean plenty of good info on this channel. Once you start to gain some traction, do subscribe. I won't put on my sales hat again but we have a great community and provide a lot of value - from reports to trade alerts, we're always building new and exciting stuff.
Ah yes, the 400lb bald gorilla that we all rely on for cheap stuff :) You'll always find our content entertaining as well. (Takes off sales hat.) Joe P.
Back testing is of course historical by nature. Many years ago, I purchased both Ford and GE, (which were both good dividend payers), and then got burned on both the divys and the share price. Interestingly, I bought GE on the same day and at very nearly the same price as Buffet, and still lost money, whereas he made money by hedging. I am curious as to whether Quantigence would have filtered them out prior to their demise vs after the newsprint told us what happened. I realize it can't predict incompetence or internal corruption. Note, I once told a restaurant owner that someone was stealing his food. I only predicted that because that is what his numbers were telling me as compared to other restaurants. Turned out one of his employees was a little too hungry. If Quantigence can be predictive, you will be very rich.
To our knowledge, Ford was never a dividend aristocrat, so they would have never been included in our universe, but GE was until the financial crisis. Typically, our Q-Score metric is very good at detecting red flags. As in, when a Q-Score begins dropping like a rock, the company often cuts their dividend shortly after. You make a great point that back testing is no indicator of the future. No one can truly build a predictive strategy, but we feel Quantigence is a good way to spot red flags - much like your prediction with the restaurant owner :)
Do you all have a growth side like TQQQ, SOXL, TNA? I love leveraged funds selling covered calls and cash secured puts.
Experienced investors don't use leverage. Inexperienced investors shouldn't use it either.
Let us know when you release that ETF!
We will! We'll be sharing our progress towards establishing an ETF, though there's still more work to do on the strategy. I'd like to see how the CRB strategy performs if we minimize rebalancing to annually and set weighting thresholds as well to minimize turnover. Joe P.
This is great! I just subscribed earlier in the month for the yearly and have been reorganizing my portfolio based on your dividends growth insights from Quantigence.
Being ever cautious, and a scientist, I had just started wondering about how this strategy might be recession proof and wanted to read more about the paper behind the theory. What a coincidence 😆
Hey Harry. Joe here. I just emailed you the paper to check out. ;) There's a lot more information than was covered in this video and we'll probably do a few more pieces on it. Great to have you as a subscriber and thank you for the financial support!
Another reason why I'm considering Quantigence: Since I live in Sweden, my broker doesn't allow for the direct purchase of American ETFs. Because of this, I have opted to just pick stocks on my own. My first idea was to just mimic SCHD best I can, but your system seems not only better, but also easier to implement.
Edit: I am allowed to buy Blackrock's iShares, but only the German versions. Still, I don't think any of them are as good as SCHD, and buying them would feel like settling for less.
It is easier to implement, yes, and it allows you to tailor the portfolio to your own needs. Very simply and transparently of course. One possible issue. Are you taxed heavily on dividends from U.S. companies? Many global investors in our community have raised this as an issue (some with ways to get around it based on jurisdiction).
@@Nanalyze actually, we have this special account type in Sweden called ISK, where you are only taxed an extremely tiny amount on the total amount of money in your account. It's calculated in a weird way, but I paid less than 0.09% on the account's total worth. So for dividend investning, I think it's absolutely amazing. Not sure how it compares to a Roth IRA.
That's very interesting, thank you for sharing. This will be beneficial for other Swedish investors to know.
Great video 👍
Thank you for the support ;)
How do you deal with a situation where a "dividend champion" suddently breaks the dividend growth pattern and the price falls instantly as soon as they announce the next upcoming dividend? As soon as that happens the market reacts and it falls, you don't have time to react
Intuitively that seems to be what happens but it's not always the case. Oftentimes the messaging is vague and we need to analyze the situation and make a decision which sometimes happens before the actual cut even happens. In fact, in recent memory of fallen champions the drop is not always that dramatic which is rather surprising. However, the cut is usually followed by a long slow slide. We have a piece coming out at some point on "Why Dividend Champions Fail." Stay tuned.
Good question
@@Nanalyze Thank you! Apart from a situation where you guys as experts see messaging and catch this before the actual cut happens,when the actual cut is announced, what is the best source of this information? In other words, what the best site to get info on the newly approved dividend right away?(as soon as it's announced)
@@МЕГАПоЗиТИВ-й2е Man that's a great question. So this all gets really tricky because each company has different fiscal years and this is measured on an annual basis, not by quarter. So what usually happens is that because dividend champions are high profile, you'll see this banter very quickly in financial news. So it's really a matter of just being engaged with the market which we do for a living. There is no "single source" we use. We also calculate this stuff at least twice a year so we'll catch things that slip through the cracks (perhaps small companies or international ones). It can be complicated which is why we built a strategy around this so we do all the work for you. :)
so what is wrong with SVOL then? they seem to have a very solid strategy that has been producing.
It's another gimmicky yield trap financial product being peddled to retail investors who pay the massive expense ratio without thinking about what they're actually invested in. There is no free lunch.
@@method341 Precisely.
Do you provide yearly subscribers with methods to implement the CRB Strategy? Ex. every quarter you send out a notification of how and why to rebalance? Or just Linear strategy at this point?
This is an excellent question. An obvious next step would be to refine the CRB strategy to minimize turnover so that it could more easily be managed manually. I've already spoken with the lads about this. First we're focusing in on getting out our International Champion and Small Cap Champion reports out, then we'll work on refining the CRB strategy. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze sorry for the dumb question, but is this not the case to create a etf or mutual fund?
@@JoseNeto-kx5pg Another excellent question. Refining the CRB method is a prerequisite to having an ETF which we're constantly asked about. It's not an easy task, but we're going down that road.
Great video! What are your thoughts on $SPGP? Seems like an interesting ETF!
We're glad you enjoyed the video! To have an opinion worth sharing about any ETF out there requires time to research IT. We're happy to do that for paying subscribers on our Discord server ;)
I assume I’d be able to use your product or system called QUANTAGENCE. Having watched this video and how much time it took for your team to design this formula- it seems like it would next to impossible for a lay person to read some long paper on the strategy and execute it. Wouldn’t it be easier for you to just list the stocks to buy each quarter? OR, am I not understanding how your system is to be EASILY used? Im not a total beginner with investing BTW
The Quantigence report will give you all the tools you need to implement the strategy on your own, even as a layperson ;) Essentially, we've done all the work for you, and we simply list the stocks and their Q-scores, along with what we've decided to invest in for our own portfolio. We'll never tell people what stocks to buy, but Quantigence report will help you make your own selections! Any questions, shoot us an email, there's a Contact form on our website. We'll help you out there :) -Wyatt C.
@@Nanalyze thanks for your response. Do you think your Quantigence strategy outperforms the S&P 500 index and/or a modestly aggressive managed fund from a Fidelity broker (admittedly the Fidelity question harder to answer without specifics). Also, if one is changing course quarterly or even yearly with your dividend strategy - doesn’t that expose one to capital gains offsets?
All we can speak to is the outperformance stated in our paper (23 years back test using S&P 500 with linear and CRB methods). Couple things to note.
One, we have our own Quantigence portfolio we manage (30 stocks) and our report shows you (among other things) how we put that together. Two, the strategy we use for our portfolio only sells a stock for one reason only - if a company stops increasing dividends. It's extremely simple.
We're also in the process of developing further Quantigence reports for paying subscribers including an International Dividend Champions report and a Q-score calculator that includes all stocks in our universe including small cap champions and "up and coming" champions.
Thank you for your interest! Joe P.
I will be buying your ETF when available!
Thank you for the vote of confidence!
@@Nanalyze thank you! Love your content and I share you with all my friends and family👍
I'm very happy to hear that, thank you! The best type of marketing is when people spread the word about your brand. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze You are planning to issue a dividend-growth ETF? If so, when do you expect that to happen?
@@George-f8h Launching an ETF is tough as many fail. We have no timeline but our recent paper shows a great deal of promise. Further work is needed.
What is the likely result when an investor selects 10 high dividend yield stocks with the intention of holding them for just one year? Then the holdings are re-evaluated and readjusted each year. Because it's such a short period, this limits the risk a company might not be able to payout. Furthermore, holding a diversified portfolio isn't as important in this scenario. You actually want to hold companies concentrated in one or two industries specifically based on the economic condition at the time. I would think the biggest risk/fatal flaw with this strategy is the potential the share price of any one company might tumble due to bad news of any kind. Any dividend you receive could be wiped out. Even worse, you might end up with a negative net return because of the fallen share price, tax, and costs of trading. I'm sure others have experimented with this idea (and other variations) and discovered it's a stupid idea. Otherwise, everybody would be doing this. What's your thought?
The average number of years the dividend has been increased in our universe is over 40 years. So when you talk about the risk a company might not be able to increase that payout, it seem low based on their track records. Furthermore, our methodology focuses on ranking companies based on the likelihood they'll continue increasing. Regarding everyone taking a prudent and sensible approach to investing, few do. Look around a bit at all the shite being peddled to investors out there and you'll see why most newbie investors today act like speculators, not investors.
"Equity bonds" of the type this strategy is invested in made Buffett one of the richest people on this planet. Regarding the two strategies described in this video - CRB and linear - the paper talks about the impact of trading costs while the topic of taxation needs to be probed further in the context of refining the rebalancing algo. Meanwhile, a simple linear strategy with a "never sell unless there's a cut" rule works quite well.
Great info, as always. The relatively new CDGV ETF looks promising but the .33 expense ratio is a deterrent despite the fund beating the market. The cost of the fund adjusting on the fly (quarterly?) and its use of 5 "segment" managers, no doubt. Doesn't follow an index. It seems Capital Group may have attempted to pirate your algorithm. Have you seen this ETF? A Quantigence subscription will cost far less than a .33 expense ratio.
A cursory look shows CGDV is a completely different animal. The 20% allocation to tech and stated possibility of investing in commercial paper means they're taking a completely different strategy which - as you pointed out - takes five managers to run apparently.
(Puts sales hat on.) Transparency is a key characteristic of Quantigence. No black box magic happening, just a common sense approach that's backed by industry experience and academic rigor. (Takes sales hat off.)
If Q scores are so good at picking stocks - and I am not saying they aren’t - why not build and publish your own ETF and make the expense percentage of potentially hundreds of millions or billions instead of $50?
Edit: by that I mean: I’m sold! Gimme your etf name and I’ll buy
The number of failed ETF managers out there is a long one. When our brand grows large enough to support an ETF, we'll look to issue one. In the meantime, those interested in performance can email us for our paper on Quantigence performance over multiple decades compared to the S&P 500. Thank you for the good idea and support! Joe P.