High IQ Poker Clash with an MIT Math Wizard
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.ค. 2024
- Today's caller faced off with one of the "new euros" aka the young college math geeks and was put in a pretty tough spot. Bart and the caller break down each street and get into the weeds discussing the likely range vs. range decisions along the way.
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0:00 - Intro
1:35 - Preflop
5:00 - Flop
8:01 - Turn
10:50 - River
17:30 - Hero Decision
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Are the "new euros" invading your local poker room?
I went back to uni to do my post grad degrees and joined the poker society. It was full of Math students, many of whom were aiming to go pro. Good lads.
You kinda look like a new euro with that sweater!
They love Seminole hard rock… easy to spot… nitty, headphones, barely tip dealers… scumbags
Not in middle of nowhere Canada! Haha.
Deport all euros
this really is a great account. you have to pay for this level of coaching anywhere else. almost at 100k subs
Bart gives the best analysis and honestly his commentary is among the best as well for live games.
I'm a CLP sub and the content there plus the full podcasts is a great value. For the cost of a C bet a month at 1-3 what CLP delivers is great imo.
oh wow i didn't notice how much the sub count is growing
I agree! Awesome on the sub count 🥳🎉🎉
I like that those tuning in and Learning are those who take advantage of this good knowledge for improving.
For Doug's hand, I remember he had a red Ace and a black Ace, and he needed to pick red Ace twice in the row to call.
If you're folding QQ on this run out, then you're overfolding and if he's played with you for some time he knows this. You shouldn't ever be checking the turn with QQ in this spot and if you do, you should be calling the river. Pretty sure he probably thinks you never have an overpair when you cbet 1/3 and check the turn.
Exactly this ^
Yeah the way this guy played the hand is super exploitable Imo
Agree, you really under repped your hand on the turn/river. 8 on river is almost your best runout, I don’t know how you fold.
@@rodb.5801 he created the perfect set up to get jammed on here, get max value, then folded 🤷♂️
It’s a call for sure.
Villain floats nearly everything vs 1/4th OTF and somehow he’s narrowed to JJ or AA OTR? Either snap the fkr off or stop 4 betting oop 300bb deep vs the pros. Guarantee he has some “Out to lunch punts”
I like this. ❤😂
When Doug played Bill Perkins heads-up, in one hand Doug made a huge all-in bet. Bill announced that he would randomize, so he asked the host slash cocktail waitress for a number from 1 to 7. She chose 6, which caused Bill to call Doug's bluff and win a huge pot. He soon admitted though that he had already decided 100% to call regardless. Which might be a lie as well.
That would be a terrible way to randomize. Humans are horrible at choosing randomly.
I am still on the tighter side, but I would probably call. I was thinking Ah,Kh, or Ah,Jh for villain as a possibility. Yes, it could be JJ, but overall I would feel more comfortable calling because of the 8,8,3,3 on board. It is hard for me to put an 8 or a 3 in villain’s range with calling such a huge 4 bet.
I am still trying to un nit my play too lol!
I understand and enjoy the reasoning with Bart and this caller though.
I am curious on solver %call vs %fold. Not, that it is everything, but I still like learning it.
I love ❤️💕 Bart’s CLP content, and always look forward to another video and hand break downs. These are gold!
It's literally never AJh, no winning 5/10+ player is ever betting turn then jamming river with that hand. It AA,Kk,JJ,88 or a bluff. The problem is I'm having a hard time finding the bluffs. With the over bet you're not getting that good of a price and the villain needs to find a decent amount of bluffs. The hero said the villain is one of the best players in the room though so I think I just flip a coin twice. Head head call every other combo fold.
@@TheTree1agreed. I think it’s a call 1 out of 3 or 4 times. A case can be made for some bluffs given heroes small flop bet and check call on turn and river check. All the Ax of hearts may be inclined to jam river after sniffing some weakness in hero, and hero being a fairly “good” player. Villain probably knows hero is capable of folding QQ. AKhh is the only normal bluff but always possible villain got outta line preflop with any Ax hearts and A3 suited and knew there was only one way to win come river. That said, this reeks of pocket AA the most for value or JJ albeit much less likely. Possibly KK or 88.
seems to me he played his hand so passively postflop, as if he had just given up after the small flop bet call, he likely induced a bluff. i would never give this pot away without more resistance
This is one of the best call in hands I’ve heard
why's that? we don't even know what the villain had
Very tough decision on the river. I feel like hero is overfolding a tad but his overall thought process was sound. Only concern is whether this river play becomes exploitable.
I think the small bet on the turn is very suspicious. That would raise my suspicion that he has strong value. Seems he wants a call or raise there. I would have a hard time calling on the river here.
Yeah but then the shove on the river makes me think it’s either super nutted or a bluff. I feel like KK and even some AA may not that that sizing because you’re probably only getting called by JJ and partials of A3 w/o a heart in hand
@@Unhingedanduninformed Well sure but the small turn size followed by river jam screams value here to me. I like the fold. I would actually consider folding on the turn. Prob wouldn't but that size is extremely weird. I hope we get a reveal one day.
Yeah: It would be extremely typical for Villain to bet small on the Turn with JJ, to generate action and calls, but then to blast off on the River. - And, there are not that many other hands (maybe the one combo of 88 aside) that would prefer that route; it can easily be underbluffed.
@@Badbentham I would expect JJ to want to bet larger on turn, to get value from hero's QQ+ and flush draws. My read of that turn bet is that V was probing, to see if hero would check-raise, indicating hero had JJ, or at least an over-pair. Once hero flat calls turn, V can feel pretty confident hero doesn't have JJ, and probably not an over-pair, emboldening V to jam river.
I could maybe see V doing this with AJs trying to get value from 99/TT, or AK/AQ hoping to push hero off a chop.
@@1vailchris The interesting part may be that Villain's River bet size feels quite polarizing; - indeed, QQ might often be a better bluff catcher than AA ( blocks all Ax bluffs) or KK ( blocks AK) , while Villain's line looks less like AA/KK in my eyes, as those indeed would likely prefer a larger Turn sizing. But, I can still totally see a small bet with JJ, hoping that Hero improves on the River.
13:01 caption on the screen could indicate "Hero checks" then CO jams.
Is hero also 4betting AA, KK with the same size preflop?
The bet on the turn is where I go from thinking I’m ahead to behind more often than not. But his jam on the river leans me back in the other direction unless I think that move is super nutted. Tough decision either way and in game I can see going either direction
Does a lead on the river for maybe half pot not sound like a good idea?
1. Gives you a better price
2. Don’t think you get bluffed as often
3. Snap fold on a shove cause they only go all in with better ?
You're not getting called by worse often enough to justify it.
@@davidculhane4388 any jack calls for that price
@@davidculhane4388sticky ace high?
I honestly don’t hate a block-type bet OTR here as hero. Obviously though vs a good opponent, it can’t be some small size like .33 or whatever, bc V can just bluff raise all day.
Totally agree with playing live poker against a very good opponent a little different to expand his range when OOP.
Very interesting hand, Villain can definitely have AA or KK, especially when many players won't have a 5bet range so I do think Villain can be uncapped here.
Lead on the turn seems very odd though, JJ might be a very tricky lead on the turn for 25%, if you want to price your opponent in with overcards and overpairs and even heart draws that you want to get there, knowing you can jam river IF you get called on turn with a high possibility of getting called on the river.
Villain is either a genius or a madman, not sure which...
It was me. I had A5 spades 🤷♂️
When Encore opened I thought it was the best room I ever played in. And most comfortable. I could park, walk to an elevator, go up 1 floor and be IN THE POKER ROOM! Lot of the dealers and floor ended up at Resorts World in Vegas and that is (imo) the best poker room in Vegas.
Wow, what a hand! Thank you Bart and the caller!
I wonder, can A high bluff to get the opponent off of chop?
Hands that you think are going to chop actually get to bet really big often
What about a block size on river? I feel like block bets are something i never see live
Not blocking diamonds is pretty relevant here. Probably more relevant than the hearts honestly
This is probably a call on the river.
I am still on the tighter side, and I would probably call too. I was thinking Ah,Kh, or Ah,Jh for villain as a possibility. Yes, it could be JJ, but overall I would feel more comfortable calling because of the 8,8,3,3 on board. It is hard to put an 8 or a 3 in villain’s range with calling such a huge 4 bet.
I am still trying to un nit my play too lol!
I understand and enjoy the reasoning with Bart and this caller though.
I am curious on solver %call vs %fold. Not, that it is everything, but I still like learning it.
😊
@@charlottedawn7334I think he folded because 15 combos of AA, KK and JJ and he’s blocking some bluff combos and getting less than 2:1.
@@KenDavis-uo8kq Yes, true. Those are very real possibilities the way it was played. That is a tough spot for sure. And, I am not sure what I would actually do in that position. People are learning to bluff more in general lately, so I leaned towards calling. However, in reality…I would be praying for a read or tell or clue from the villain 😂🤣 It really is a toss up, and I never was big on overvaluing one pair, but I also used to overfold. I keep studying….
Thank you for your reply 🌹
@@charlottedawn7334 I’m with you. It’s a tough spot indeed. The caller also said the villain is the best player in the room which also would lean me toward a call in that they’re probably very capable of bluffing. I was just commenting on why I think the hero folded, I might’ve very well sigh called lol
@@KenDavis-uo8kq Exactly. And even Bart and Hero said it could go either way. Hero randomized call or fold, and the fold won. And, of course, the result can be different every time. Thank you for the fun analysis. I love it!
interesting hand.
pre-flop is the most interesting portion of this hand imo.
CO 3! to $90 next to is too small off a $30 open with 3 players left to act at 300bb if this guy is the thinking player you say.
his range is capped with the call of hero’s 4!.
JJ (3 combos), 88 (1 combo), 33 (1 combo), AA (6 combos) are the value hands. all are reasonably happy to see a flop in postwith this SPR.
4 bet should be sized down against this 3! which keeps KK and AA in his range, both of which should be 5! this deep. it’s the only way he can the money in. KK Should be 5! with a higher frequency to help him rule out AA for hero.
this pre-flop action cuts AA, KK out of his range this deep a large percentage of the time in my opinion.
river bet is so polar, i think this is a sigh call.
This seems like a call on the river to me. Villain should have a lot of AK, some other Ax, and sometimes something like 9T or TT.
Against that you have to weigh AA, KK and JJ, which are only 15 combos.
I agree. I feel like it’s AK here. JJ would have gone slightly larger on the turn to induce more river calls.
depending on V profile. If he was the best player at the table as described, then that's a call. Now: this also depends on H profile...b/c the V adjusted his play accordingly. It could be a bluff. I'd say: 60/40 bluff. He must put H on exactly pocket QQ. b/c pocket KK would not slow down on turn.
Personally I think this is a call, heart in my hand or not. Double board pair, busted flush draw, potentially jamming to get us off a chop and we fold an over pair in a 4 bet pot getting 2:1? If the opponent realizes this, he can just run pure bluffs and print.
Does anyone know spr on flop?
I think Doug had black aces and said if he pulls the A of spades twice he would call, which is 25%. I remember watching that hand on the outside TV in the cabana and standing up out of my chair with my hands on my head when the guy pulled the bluff, miss those streams!
I hate the no reveal hands
same but rather have such an interesting hand with no reveal than miss out
id be willing to bet villian just had AJ there, turned into a semibluff on river. i snap call my QQ the way that hand played.
i love this channel.
Nice hand, villain sounds like a total chad!
Combinatorically. Love it. Lol
classic attempt to blast you off a chop, that's my first gut instinct
Hero call!
Good to hear a strong player call in. Strong reasoning
He sure knows how to use jargon
@@Glitch47278 ugg
Why didn't he bet turn ?
Was almost certainly infront
I think if you run it back how hero reps his hand. Looks super weak. Looks like AK that missed the flop. Or something like that. QQ didn't miss. Only hands that beats him in the range is say AA and KK. But I don't think he had them. I think it was played perfectly if your objective was get get villain all in and intentionally under rep your hand. I would have had to call.
hmm. interested to hear what he had if it was revealed after
Yeah, my favorite call ever! Good players playing good poker, that's what I'm all about! :D Edit: Tho I in my very humble opinion, vs good players, calling only 25% of the time with the queens here seems to be overfolding. Maybe call 50-66% of the time? The guy just has ak, aq, ats, tt, 99, and if he feels a little aggro tonite even fours through sevens, damn, even counterfit deuces here so often. So many combos against the overpairs.
Tough one. Hero is at the top of his range, so it's a call. But villain really doesn't have many bluffs, so it's a fold. Idk...
I think it would have been best to block bet, maybe 500 on the river. Probably get called by Jx. If you get raised then, it's an easy fold.
Tough spot 👍🏻 I’m not sure what I’d do
I'm not at reveal yet, bit as Villain I would always semi bluff with AJ suited. Take the pot when hero calls to chop, and lose only to overpairs that call
Is this Barry Kripke from Caltech playing against MIT kids? Sounds just like him
Not sure I could credit V with AA/KK the way this was played. Seems more likely he was bluffing river than over-betting thick value.
Yeah in 3/4 bet pots it really seems like when you bet flop, check turn they ALWAYS put you on exactly AK.
@@Jermo484 yes, that's true. But also, going back to pre-flop, V didn't 5-bet. Maybe he doesn't have a 5B range here, in position, but hero can't assume V is just flatting with AA/KK at this stack depth. If V had AA/KK without a heart, wouldn't he raise flop or bet bigger on turn, to get value from hero's flush draws and over-pairs to the board? Seems like his only AA/KK combos are those without a heart, just 3 combos each, assuming he's not 5B'ing any of them pre. I feel like AA/KK wants to fast-play this flop, with or without a heart, when V doesn't 5B pre.
Doubtful V is getting to the flop or betting turn with some 8x holding. I'd think if V hung in with JJ, he'd bet bigger on turn, to get value from hero's QQ+ and AKhh.
Doubtful V is going to jam river with any pocket pair if he's putting hero on AK. More likely, it seems like V was trying to get hero to fold a pair, or possibly get hero off a chop. So, I could maybe see V doing this with 99/TT hoping to fold out hero's QQ, maybe AJs trying to get value from 99/TT, or AK/AQ hoping to push hero off a chop.
When hero check-calls turn, his hand is fairly under-repped. I think we have to call off this river jam.
@@Jermo484 Actually, thinking about this more, my read of V's small turn bet is that V was probing, to see if hero would check-raise, indicating hero had JJ, or at least an over-pair. Once hero flat calls turn, V can feel pretty confident hero doesn't have JJ, and probably not an over-pair, emboldening V to jam river with AJs, trying to get value from 99/TT, or AK/AQ hoping to push hero off a chop, but probably not 99/TT trying to fold out over-pairs.
Does not feel like AA to me. It could be JJ getting greedy on river, but I doubt it. I would never really play the way hero did, but if I had I'd probably call the river.
@@Jermo484whole reason for checking QQ on the turn seems to be to have some stronger hands in our checking range so people can’t just always put on AK. With that being said, feels like river has to be a call against a good player.
Rivers more like 25% fold than 25% call with how under-repped H’s hand looked by the river imo.
AK with at least ace of hearts was definitely s possibility.
I don’t think an overbet jam there is gonna be for value I feel like it’s gotta be a bluff
Word of the day: Combinatorically
Everything has me thinking that Villain had JJ lol. I think Hero got saved with the fact that he had one of the red Queens in his hand. This would have been terrible if he had two black Queens in this spot as it’s a call more times than not.
To get 25% with two cards you just pick one card, and if you get that one twice it's 25%
Yes there’s many different ways to randomize 👍🏻
No, it's 50% if you don't fix what you pick first
@@levinkwong3120 You have black aces. You "decide" on the A of spades. You turn one over. If it's the A of spades you mix them up and turn one over again If it's the Ace of spades again, then you hit your 25% chance. The odds are very easy to calculate: Odds of selecting A of spades on the first go: 50%. The odds of selecting it on the second go: 50%. Together, they come to 25%.
People dont want to call there stack off with just a pair especially their winning stack and if this guys any good he knows your 4bet range and he knows your over pair is scared after 1/4 pot and x call x. I think as played its fine but im going to agree with the ones saying just dont 4b it then if your not going to be able to take the heat. Im pretty sure on 833 in this formation ive already decided im playing a 2 street hand long as a heart doesnt come off. I think either turn or river id have elect to bet one of them
You wouldn’t call flop 1/4 pot with any 2 cards ?
damn wish villain revealed
I heard this one already
If we have to fold this hand on a board this dry, how can we be 4betting to 340 to begin with?
Our plan is to tiny bet the flop, check call the turn, and check-fold the river? Seems like we just cant 4bet this hand when 300 bbs deep based on the way this hand plays out....
Yeah if villain is capable of slow playing Aces or Kings in position, and find a value jam like this, it’s tough to call the river with Queens with 300bb. GTO wise, Queens are gonna call at like 95% of time facing a 3bet out of position at 200bb, and at 100bb it’s 50% all in and 50% 4bet. You don’t really want to reduce the spr preflop so you would possibly get stacked by Aces or Kings on fairly safe boards for queens.
Personally I’m calling in that spot, he could 100% have A of Hearts K off suit, and he knows going all in is the only chance he has winning the pot, after all he is blocking the nut flush you definitely can’t have an 88 or made a full house on that board after the 3 bet
I was villain in this hand and I had A5hh
Guessing the suits of the Aces you hold is a 50% randomizer. If Doug Polk gets to the river, I’m going to assume he knows the suits of his cards. You have a 50% chance of guessing the first one you look at. If you can’t guess the 2nd one, quit poker.
what's point calling turn? while you think to fold on river brick shove?
what's point folding river brick shove if you called turn bet?
At best he has JJ / Quad 8s maybe Kings. Probably AKhh or Pure Air. I think I would definitely be calling here the run out double pairs low cards . It’s a perfect spot.
It’s Bart’s “5th street chicken” logic I guess. Hero is calling turn hoping the river goes check check (or sometimes spike a Q 😬).
But I think that goes a bit out the window vs strong players who will the pull the trigger on the river bluffs.
As much as he was probably right, this feels like a call. Opponent has enough Jx, 9T, TT and Ax heart bluffs trying to break a chop that this has to be a call imo. If it wasn't double paired and the river was say a 2/4. Then fold 75% seems way more reasonable as the opponent will less likely bluff Jx or Ax missed hearts.
Not to mention, what is he betting on the turn for value that shoves river? Shove with any of his nutted value would imply the opp is going for the max with JJ,88,AA. And very unlikely but KK sometimes
Opponent never has jx here
Combinatorially, at MIT
There's only 3 hands he's losing too JJ KK and AA. I could see the villain shoving with AJ too
If I did the math correctly, that's 17 combo of hands that beat him. 6 combos of Ks, 6 of As, 3 of Js, and 2 combos of 8s. What a spot to be in.
2 combos of A3s and 1 88.
@@1spicybajan there's 2 8's on the board. 1 combo of 88
@@88mphDrBrowndo we think V always 3 bets and then calls the 4 bet with A3s and 88 though? Even a decent player who’s a solver nerd probably only does that as a mix.
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj V's defend % is supposed to be based off the size of the 4bet, which was very large. 88 is only one combo, is basically just set mining, and way short of the standard 15x rule so I'm fine with discarding it. A3s is only 2 so a mix doesn't make that much of a difference. 15-17 combos of value seems about right. The big question is how much does the tiny betting and check get V to float and bluff?
Before I finish the video I just want to say if I had QQ on the river in this spot and a guy jams I’m very sad. Time to randomize and click a button
lol. Dude randomized. Makes sense
Disagree with Fold 75% of the time. Strongly. I instantly found the call on level 2.
Q❤ is not blocking bluffs vs good competent player as he would never bluff the river IP with hands like AQ ❤ and KQ❤ in my opinion in this spot worst combo of qq is the one with the Q of diamonds as it blocks the back-door hands of on the flop like Aq dd and KQ dd that have to bluff the river
Why does KQdd have to bluff the river but KQhh doesn’t? They both lose to pretty much everything.
Pure fold, he has MAYBE 1 combo of bluffs
That pink stanley tho
If you are thinking different combos of QQ have any relevancy here to the point it influences your decision you have been led to believe this game is way more complicated than what it really is and it's gonna hurt your results in the long run.
Just my opinion.
It was played so passively, villain may have even jammed KJhh or AJhh or something for value.
How can we have results oriented comments without knowing what the villain had? Lol
If sure feels like the hero is beat here. Even deep, I'm not sure i have a five bet range, in this spot. Feels like AA to me. Could be JJ too. He probably isn't shoving with KK.
Seems way too thin to just jam here with KK. Even if hero only has partials of AA and JJ because of prior streets, there's so little he can get called by. Partials of AJ suited and partials of QQ? Not saying he can't have KK, that just seems a bit iffy, especially since he has so few bluffs here. I'd only jam with AA and JJ I think.
If I had KK I would play just like villain did here, and hope hero didn't have jacks.
@@timmyp34 why would you go for a well over pot bet with one pair when your opponent has more combos that beat you than are worse and will call? Id always value bet with KK on the river, but never by a size that makes hero fold QQ and maybe AJ sometimes. That's terrible. Like objectively. The hero literally folded an overpair because the villain (if he has KK) overplayed it so badly.
@Jermo484 in retrospect I have never made that karge a bet. I suppose 1g$. I would have thought the hero had AK, QQ, JJ, based on preflop action. And obviously then I mainly feared JJ on river. Which I think he would not have checked.
I would absolutely jam AJ
@@cadebruce4401 why? You already beat every hand he 4 bet and missed with and they're unlikely to call you trying to catch bluffs since you have so few.
The villain was bluffing . That preflop 4bet was horrible imo.
If caller is a rec, leave me out of that game!
Lol that’s a nitty fold but I guess he could have KK AA ..
bluffs are AKh AJh KJh
I think I would of called
AK with just ace of hearts is more likely bluff than a hand with a jack being turned into a bluff. Villain would likely continue flop in position with nut back door and 2 overs on that flop.
Villain could also have JJ and A3s
He had A 8 suited.
CO bets 1/3 on turn?
I doubt it. But if he did he played it poorly.
Any you 5/10 ENCORE BOSTON HARBOR regs want to network with a little 1/3 player trying to work is way up let me know im there 4 nights a week working with a 1on1 coach and put in 600 hours last year.
Stop showing the ones that don't reveal
Comments help. You’re welcome
I’m gay