Agree about the U.S. Ivy Leagues - they aren't worth the price tag today. I'm speaking as someone who went to a Seven Sisters college decades ago when it was more affordable. You can get a world-class education at U of T, U Waterloo, McGill and other schools in Canada. They don't toot their own horn, there's no snobby "prestige" element as such, but the brightest of these graduates are basically feeder-farm recruits for U.S. companies. I know a few of these students right now. Our AI research is cutting-edge. Sheridan College animation graduates are all over Hollywood animation studios.
Back to 1914 geopolitical environment. Let's hope there's no parallel to the Archduke assassination. But thinking probabilistically, there will be some analogue that happens. How it will play out will be interesting.
Lots of overconfident cherry-picking from Marko, but maybe slightly less arrogant than during his Clocktower tenure. Marko left Clocktower because those "great hedge funds" that they seeded basically all failed, and the VC fund returns have been poor. Also, despite stating otherwise, he has regularly attempted to time short-term geopolitical outcomes, such as the Russia-Ukraine war. In that case, he suggested the war would never happen, that investors should buy Russian assets (which dropped 80-90% post-invasion), and that Putin would be out of office by March 2023. It's also worth noting that his geopolitical prognostications/conspiracy theories about the Fed's reaction function have been wildly wrong. For example, he repeatedly asserted that the Fed was "political" and would cut rates aggressively this year (without supporting data) in order to get Biden re-elected!! The much-discussed short oil call seems to be the only actual winner over the past several years and Marko continues to present that as unassailable proof that his "framework" actually works.
Side note, dont forget he is a storyteller, salesman. His forecast beyond 3months, while always informative, do not mean a lot. The world is so dynamic, things change so frequently. that just not accurate. Reminder, he was also dead sure that Russia would lose the war...
I do not think anyone knows anything about what will happen in the next 5 years. Everyone wants to believe life Is in an eternal continuation mode. I will not be offended if this comment is removed. My intent is not to rain on anyone's parade, I simply try to live within reality.
What is the obsession with reshoring manufacturing? Its like people want our grandchildren to be working on assembly lines bolting together robots that we sell to wealthy knowledge workers abroad.
At least they would have something to do not just fade away into death and despair. Rich people are not going to share without the poor doing some kind of work even if it is theatrical. They have a moral objection to increasing living standards.
![“อ.เบียร์ คนตื่นธรรม” มาตามคำเรียกร้อง แหกศาสตร์ฮวงจุ้ย เตือนสติอย่างมงาย | แฉ 7 พ.ย. 67 [1/3]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/5fc4S3xBNfc/mqdefault.jpg)
Marko Papic is great ..
Very good information and easy to listen to!
great show. love the video updates, great guest 👍
Really great interview. An interesting way to think about macro. Great job.
Video finally. Good job, guys.
great interview and convo guys!
Great interview with Marko. I'm going to buy his book.
1:14:45 A very confident assessment.
Agree about the U.S. Ivy Leagues - they aren't worth the price tag today. I'm speaking as someone who went to a Seven Sisters college decades ago when it was more affordable. You can get a world-class education at U of T, U Waterloo, McGill and other schools in Canada. They don't toot their own horn, there's no snobby "prestige" element as such, but the brightest of these graduates are basically feeder-farm recruits for U.S. companies. I know a few of these students right now. Our AI research is cutting-edge. Sheridan College animation graduates are all over Hollywood animation studios.
Back to 1914 geopolitical environment. Let's hope there's no parallel to the Archduke assassination. But thinking probabilistically, there will be some analogue that happens. How it will play out will be interesting.
Lots of overconfident cherry-picking from Marko, but maybe slightly less arrogant than during his Clocktower tenure. Marko left Clocktower because those "great hedge funds" that they seeded basically all failed, and the VC fund returns have been poor.
Also, despite stating otherwise, he has regularly attempted to time short-term geopolitical outcomes, such as the Russia-Ukraine war. In that case, he suggested the war would never happen, that investors should buy Russian assets (which dropped 80-90% post-invasion), and that Putin would be out of office by March 2023.
It's also worth noting that his geopolitical prognostications/conspiracy theories about the Fed's reaction function have been wildly wrong. For example, he repeatedly asserted that the Fed was "political" and would cut rates aggressively this year (without supporting data) in order to get Biden re-elected!!
The much-discussed short oil call seems to be the only actual winner over the past several years and Marko continues to present that as unassailable proof that his "framework" actually works.
Great insights today
He is much wiser than he has been crapped on by the media!
I feel that now you can get real alpha by fading geopolitical risks every Q
Marko: “fade geopolitical risks” because of one call on oil! Ignore all prior calls about geopolitical events and macro conspiracy theories!
Yay, piss-up time is here!!
❤
I remember March 23rd because it's the day i told my broker to pull me out of the market 😂
Side note, dont forget he is a storyteller, salesman. His forecast beyond 3months, while always informative, do not mean a lot. The world is so dynamic, things change so frequently. that just not accurate. Reminder, he was also dead sure that Russia would lose the war...
TLT gang
I do not think anyone knows anything about what will happen in the next 5 years. Everyone wants to believe life Is in an eternal continuation mode. I will not be offended if this comment is removed. My intent is not to rain on anyone's parade, I simply try to live within reality.
Kevin you seem to be in a rush - let the guy speak!
In the long term we’re all dead.😢
Rofl even smart people try to pretend trump has any idea tf he's doing
What is the obsession with reshoring manufacturing? Its like people want our grandchildren to be working on assembly lines bolting together robots that we sell to wealthy knowledge workers abroad.
At least they would have something to do not just fade away into death and despair. Rich people are not going to share without the poor doing some kind of work even if it is theatrical. They have a moral objection to increasing living standards.