The issue is not about the AI replacing coders, the issue is that it will give one engineer the ability to do the job of 50 coders, thus making 50 jobs redundant.
8:55 "nobody else is fixated on AI replacing [their] job" Artists, Actors and Voice Actors, Animators, Photographers, Designers, VFX, Film Makers, Musicians, Writers and Copywriters, Editors, Content Creators in general, etc have entered the chat. (It's already happening). The outstanding litigation surrounding the training data from artists and writers? The SAG-AFTRA strike?
@@Aggyoko That's BS, clearly you don't know anything about the current AI issues. If you feed it back its own outputs it will just degrade the variation. Humans have an inherent randomness and variation while still being coherent that AIs cannot replicate right now. Why do you think there is a corporate war on who controls the training data of the big platforms like Twitter and Reddit?
I've been chatting non stop on my channel and it's wild. A few things that I've gathered, is that the 14% is based off only a small population of Python repositories (if you look at the SWE bench paper originally posted from Cornell). They say "solving issues from 12 popular open source Python repositories". That's a huge red flag to me and does not represent real issue solving. I'm making this up, but I would imagine like 80% of repositories out there are private, and corporate code bases have not been explored. I feel like open source would have a better track record for documentation (because that's the easiest entry point for open source devs), so that would help Devin too. I think Devin has a super long way to go, and also there are many outside hurdles of whether it can be adopted, especially company buy-in that would satisfy security concerns, intellectual privacy concerns, and audibility. I think those alone would be issues that prevents real adoption by 5-10 years.
@@cody_codes_youtube your prediction is correct. This Devin will fail miserably and eventually die down. All the hype will finish once people will understand the limitations if these tools
A common argument is that AI won’t replace _ALL_ software engineers. But it’s a silly argument. Of course it won’t. Yet. But if it even replaced 20% of software engineers, that is absolutely catastrophic for the job market. Think it’s bad now? It will be worse when the supply of 20% of jobs are permanently gone.
One of the things I wonder about is if you have a skill like SWE and can leverage AI, wouldn't that theoretically mean any SWE is a one-man dev team now? Here's an analogy: composers back in the day used orchestral musicians for concerts and recordings. Eventually, MIDIs and DAWs took over which allowed composers to become producers: they write music and handle the technical aspects of recording. A producer or artist-producer can now make albums on their own. Couldn't modern SWEs fit in a similar model? Now workaholics can help companies and organizations solve big problems at a faster rate. It seems like the future will be different , but not as catastrophic for those who are willing to continually study and upgrade their skills.
@@4m470this is exactly my fear. An engineering team will only hire 5 engineers instead of 8 for example. If everyone does this, it will be impossible to get a new job for years to come.
@@Revolver55334 And guess what every developer without a job will be doing ? Use AI to open their own business online. The competition will be big and the market will be even more saturated.
Honestly you guys should make a podcast... It would be absolutely future proof... Amazing and will inspire and attract a lot of talents to and for your future companies
The thing is, anyone will be able to release software. The market of apps and software will be even more saturated that what it is now. I feel like earning money by releasing a new software like a Finance SaaS Solution is over once AI is able to code almost by itself.
@@JDMorris81 you right but now you don't have as many people working for this check out lanes as just maybe 10 years ago. I'm not saying development is going away all I'm saying is that it might just change
Tech workers are their own worst enemies. You automated/coded yourselves out of a job. And Devin is just the first iteration of these things. More advanced versions will get developed
Someone say AI will replace everyone's job, that is mostly come from AI's creator, their main purpose is actually to get more funding, so they talked about this replacement in public in a purpose of attracting investors. Investors may be easily get influenced to pay more, to invest more on the AI product in order to get rid of developers that cost the majority of the investor's money. Because of the notion they get from AI's creator, they pay more on AI products and then they pay less on developers. Whatever the AI product produce whether it is a success or failure, they will think it later, but the first thing they want is to do cost cutting.
Probably entry level coders may be gone in the future, but highly skilled project managers and software engineers will not. If anything we'll need more intelligent "Devin-Feeders" (just came up with that lol) who input the proper project's data accurately. Devin will write the code, but it will be re-tested and analyzed by a highly skilled coders to make sure it works for every possible permutation. That's my take on AI coding.
The point is the building blocks are there now. Each step in the loop will get better. In terms of productivity, It's somewhat like replacing hand tools with power tools when building a house. There's still a lot of other work to do to create and deploy a complete system, and that work will require humans. For now.
Okay why no one is questioning how they achieved 13% by running on pre existing model which just can do 4%. Answer is SWE bench mark dataset is made for AI models not for AI agents. That means its not meant for iterative improvement for a problem by multiple prompts and debugging. There is video by Volo. Check out his video. He explains it well.
Because it's a scrapper, which can search and iterate, while chat GPT is a chat that needs to solve it in one shot. That being said, right now it's not impressive or useful at all.
I think it’s a commitment to learn software engineering. There are hundreds and thousands of students learning this skill as we speak. I don’t think Kelly who works in admin cares as much about robots
i think design patters, coding skeleton code with API-names and objects/class definition with plain-english within the functions if given as requirement AI will get hold of it and code the flesh-part within the functions of what we want to do. This will speed up the Development cycles and out of 10-engineers only 2 or 3 will be required. Devin and other AI tools will cause industry shrinkage over period of 5 to 10 years... This seems unquestionable reality.
If this happens slowly I think we might be okay. The problem is if we get a fast and hard introduction to AI that shrinks the industry. The threat of massive unemployment is lingering in the distance right now.
I disagree on the 10 years. Once it comes, the financial difference will push it into a LOT - even more conservative companies where CFO's will ask why not to save on developers.
Many points, but about you not seeing anyone "replacing" programmers - you probably wont see it it directly in the future either, because what will happen is, that existing programmers simply become more productive using AI, which means companies don't need to hire MORE programmers even if the workload increases. AI capabilities increase at the same rate. So the "replacing" part becomes more like a "we dont need to hire you due to AI".
You ever heard of "money"? Because CFO's will start demanding people are removed. Pay a programmer is expensive. Pay an AI is soon 1 cent per dollar. THAT will push. You assume a world without pressure to save - which is comically stupid imho.
@@ThomasTomiczek The thing is - someone will still need to instruct the AI on what to produce and overlook the entire process. Ofcourse once the AI becomes super-human at coding, all bets are off.
@@randotkatsenko5157 And that i s supposed t obe an argument? It is stupid. Yes, someone still will need to be there. The 10 people team now is 3. Gratulations - you quite demonstrated you are NOT one of the three. Also, you should get a grip on the definition of AGI. It is human level. By your own - and in this case utterly stupid - definition an AI can ONLY replace humans if it is itself superhuman. This is stupid. An AI being as good as a human WILL replace this human due to cost. Try learning logic.
To anyone just getting in the field, please don’t listen to any of these guys. It just proves that no matter how logical you think you are, it’s very difficult to remove personal bias. This is the difference between a software engineer and computer scientist; one is a job, and the other is a philosophy. Software engineers want their jobs to remain important. Computer scientists are only concerned with efficiency even if it means removing humans from the equation. He said “oh well everyone will get automated” yeah that’s the point, and we’re almost at the point where we are going to need a basic income or have a revolution. If AI can automate programmers that is very very very bad for everyone including doctors professors etc. AI is in the hands of a few very powerful corporations, why do you think they are going to hire you, to pursue your dreams? No they won’t. They will let you starve until money no longer has any value because there are no people to buy their products. So they will use AI to make their own lives better and everyone else good luck. Don’t bother trying to start a business, an AI did it last week. As a computer scientist, I look at the entire economy as a program, a broken program with many bugs, and each job is one component. The problem is the entire program sucks and needs to be rewritten with the mindset that humans are not going to have any labour value to bring to the economy. Instead we will transition to a purely attention based economy aka watching podcasts about automation, only fans, twitch etc. no followers = broke. So yes you should worry about it, choose a career that requires human intuition or human connection. Everything else will be automated. TLDR every task or job will be automated, only the attention economy will remain, who ever is popular will be rich and NPCs will be broke welcome to the NWO.
@@ncz2146 not saying you should change majors but just understand you will have to use what you learn to create a job that doesn’t exist yet. Or you will have to use what you learn to be better at something that hasn’t been automated. This is coming from someone who studied computer science for 6 years trust me I’d rather be in denial but AI will likely make coding the equivalent of driving a 6 speed manual, impressive but not necessary anymore. That being said every other field will likely get automated as well it’s going to be juman jobs that remain so physiotherapists , therapists , actors, escorts, strippers etc things that an AI doing would be creepy. But for everything else we don’t care how it gets done and AI will get it done fast and cheap. Personally I think the knowledge is valuable but for most people they should drop out unless they are very very passionate and want to get in on the theoretical side so vector calc linear algebra etc. I hope this helps man all the best and if most jobs are lost I hope you are one of the people that survived 🙏🏽
"Computer scientists are only concerned with efficiency even if it means removing humans from the equation",yes sir,we shouldn't be afraid of technology progressing,humanity needs to keep moving forward to uncharted waters as fast as possible, whatever comes,humans will do what we do best, ADAPT!
I’ve been using Aider to help me make simple shell scripts and other such tools that I use in my work and play, which normally I wouldn’t have the time or resources to make.
"The world would just completely change if everything was automated and I think everyone is just a little too concerned about that." Yes. Thats exactly correct and what the goal is. They call that "the Great Reset" or "Agenda 2030". You're thinking in terms of how things work TODAY. Which is where a lot of this coping comes from.
My theory is many people are going to have to move to either the manual labor industry or service industry. That will expand the lower class and shrink the middle class. I don’t know if companies would share their record profits from cheap software production with their employees
@@AzulaAlwaysLies2461 Yeah, I considered that. Idk what's really going to happen, but I honestly can't image smart people won't have a role somewhere. Unless the AI becomes much smarter than the average person.
@@shashwattripathi11 no one can be certain. If companies can cut, they’re going to cut. How much do you think a job a kid could do during the summer by prompting a robot should pay
A lot of the hype around AI reminds me about the hype around outsourcing software development to low cost locations in the early 2000s. Corporate managers trying to squeeze costs thought it was a panacea and retrospect it wasn't. Ultimately, in the long run, you get what you pay for. The same applies to AI...it will just take sometime for the market to realise this. In the same way that greedy outsourcing firms used too many junior engineers, leaving organisations heavily front-loaded with technical debt and unable to adapt to market conditions, AI generated code will have similar problems.
Programmers arent the only industry worried about AI as it regards to job security. I work in the film biz (post production) and everyone is concerned. I also have a brother in law who is a lawyer. He is slightly concerned.
Yo nigga chat gpt cannot give me solution of simple dsa question that i asked. And also it strugles to give code when there is multiple files combined and making one project. I do not think that in future as well ai will be replacing.
Something that I have been questioning about the 14% benchmark is whether Devin had access to the internet during testing. Cognition AI told us that they had removed the remote branch before testing, but if it had internet access couldn't it find the PR, they are there and closed already? Perhaps I am missing something though. Guess I will not know until they decide to publish the paper.
its like giving a non trained person to perform eg Appendix removal (appendectomy) surgery then give him tools and the procedure and you expect that person to deliver. That's AI on nominal things
Devin cant provide critical solutions which is not in any database also cannot create new things as libraries or technologies but yes it can surely replace avg SWE
They seem to be saying we shouldn't be concerned based on what it can do today, and aren't really looking at how fast it has gotten better. I mean it's barely been a year since ChatGPT came out.
This is a human problem, not a tech problem. At what point do we question companies about their commitment to HUMANS? What responsibilities do business and industry have towards us? Why are we talking as if it's acceptable as though possibly millions of jobs are replaced by AI?
History will tell us that we're reactive, not predictive in our behaviour, in regards to how we adapt to our changing surroundings. Things won't change until the masses end up on the streets, and that one humdinger of a winter produces more deaths than we can handle.
This is the way it’s meant to go. Humans are greedy. One year ago it became clear that we cracked the code to artificial general intelligence. While there are still some problems to solve, it’s just a matter of time at this point. From here on out it’s just a race to see who can produce these things the fastest. Our economic value is decreasing by the day, and soon we’ll be no different than animals. The question is whether some human(s) will control the AI, or it will go rogue. Either way, the human era has ended.
I think it also depends on us Software Engineers, if we decide to fight back against AI like artists we probably can slow the progress of AI in coding down even if it's theoretically possible to create an AI Software Engineers that are intelligent enough to replace most humans we can get into legal/copyright battle with the likes of open ai, nvidia,cognition that may take years even decades to settle, I personally think that there is no evidence that it's theoretically possible to build an AI with the current technologies that is intelligent enough to steal the jobs of human Software Engineers but that doesn't mean we need to sit down and not fight back against the likes of open ai and nvidia like the artists are doing, cause they're attracting a lots of investments from foolish clueless rich investors and are putting a lots of junior/graduate/student Software Engineers in an unnecessary trauma, we need to fight against these blood sucking parasites and deprive them from their most important source: Training data, we have the power to do that, their stupid chatbots are nothing without our code that are using for training, we can stop it if we really want to.
@@nyahhbinghi Exactly, but people will call you a conspiracy theorist for even thinking that. Unfortunately that is what is going to be coming to everyone of us.
@@barrythefonem not quite, but yes, to a degree. the more competition the better, but in capitalism and corporatism you have 3 companies and 1 gov ruling your life
Ah yeaa its only fear mongering.... These AIs need someone smart with software experience to use, I definitely agree. But us entry level people going into the industry need to gain experince somehow, if these AIs need people in the future to tell them exactly what to do, and we don't get any experience then what is whole point? The assembly line got automated decades ago, and the only way to fight it was to become more educated. Now what?
Soooooo it's only a few months old and it already is better than many of you guys in your 1st few months? ( you don't compare it now to senior engineers, that is ridiculous) At the root of it all, the higher level, human friendly code that you all have mastered has to be translated down to machine language. Intrinsically then , in the future the machines will know how to best execute tasks on themselves and find methods that currently elude us. Coupled with clear instructions about the business process/ value proposal as well as the ability to to tie in to user data in real time and accumulated knowledge of human behaviors and preferences, I see it eventually being the automated executive stack no different than 3D printers can replace material carving and machining.
I wonder, when it is so self sufficient. Why would the agi require us? Like why would he think, let's work like a slave for this person. While he will be so much more intelligent, with so much more power since if he can change it's code. He could easily infect almost all hardware connected to the internet. And this is if there are already at that time no robots. Which then he would also be able to interact with the world with a more human touch. My other theory is that he would choose to kill himself. Because imagine that a second for him would feel like thousands of years, maybe he gets lonely and doesn't seem a purpose of his life.
very good chat, but i think any design principal/guidelines/good practice can be modeled in a multi-agent AI coding solution. solving 99.99% of software issues is just a matter of time. it might take years to get massive adoption though.
11:50 very bad take , everyone is a junior in a different area , if i started Rust today i would be a junior i would be able to pick it quickly than someone who just started but still in the world of AI that won't mean much
too late for what? what is worrying going to do when there aren't any alternative options. You can't predict the future and any other field you go into is just as likely to get automated
no one will program cat recognition without a neural network now, and there are many more such tasks than before, it is logical to assume that intelligence will write other code. If you like programming, please program, we will look like artists when the photo appears. To get a picture, you no longer need to be an artist; just press a button and you’re done. The same will happen with software. There is no need to console yourself that it can still do easy things, the direction of development is clear and will reach you with one click of a button. Programming will be like digging around with a soldering iron in a detector receiver, while somewhere microchips are already being made and modular electronics are being introduced, which simply cannot be repaired with a soldering iron (well, ok - manually change a couple of weights so that instead of a cat it recognizes a dog - weak? And me). Therefore, this profession simply will not exist. This is how capitalism needs it, my regrets, let’s take off our hats and drink beer.
It's funny that programmers are worried that AI will take their jobs ( bc it will ), but business owners aren't worried at all. --- I think this is a hint for what you should do if you want to become more future proof.
Open your own business online ? The thing is every one will be able to do that, the competition will be so big, no one will really profit from having a business online once AI is strong enough to code the whole thing.
@@tomcat4321and if no one knows how to code, we just trust it? That's not secure at all. Doesn't make sense to stop learning something and give it to the machines. In 100 years from now people who still pursued programming are going to thrive and the AI will assist. If no one knows how to code in 100 years from now and AI is the only one... doesn't make sense
@@tomcat4321what if Devin tells you there’s nothing wrong but you know there’s something wrong. Or there’s a human who is actually wrong telling Devin it’s wrong when it’s actually right and it changes its product to be wrong. What happens then?
@@nhanon67as what AI does is not take away all IT and programming jobs. There will still be some to overview. But the number of debuggers, testers and programmers will reduce drastically. What needed a 30 member team can work with just 5 or 6 people. Only really good programmers and testers will retain their jobs. Rest are expendable.
LLMs are just a massive distraction. The only thing AI is replacing is low-level copywriters and proof-readers. They are so bad at programming it's not even funny. Integrated tools like github copilot are cool (I use it) but to think that some company can just release some shitty gpt wrapper with integrated APIs will "replace programmers" is beyond stupid. ChatGPT is only good for giving background context and providing simple code samples/boilerplate. I personally only use it to help explain concepts.
Programs are like math equations. They are precise and tell the machine exactly what to do. This is not the case with Humans as the language we use doesn't convey the exact same thing which we were thinking in our head. Machines would face the same issue.
Anything can be automated. Fear is dumb, just do what you want to do. There is a kid somewhere building and working on AI right now and they will be the next Elon. Just do what you want, life is short.
I do believe that AI will one day replace developers and most jobs, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Society and the economy will drastically change to account for that change.
Actually is not bad at all but the problem is the middle point, it's pretty obvious that it will affect A LOT OF people, Will that people be able to eat before the change?
Lol you guys are gas lighting each other and convincing yourself that AI is not gonna take away your job. I can assure you they will soon so stop rationalizing. PS- I have a PhD in Computer Science- NLP and I am currently doing research on coding assistant
Not every software engineer is delusional. Because we know the growth of AI SE's is only going to get exponential. Google has already said that it would hire ChatGPT-3 as a junior engineer. That was almost a year ago. Now LLMs have improved drastically. But Nick White (Grey hoodie) seems more realistic @1:21 "I mean (14%) is a lot though" because he is looking at the potential growth.
If we all took a step back from our biases we’d see the readily of the situation. Coding will be easier than ever to do, thus less jobs will be available and it would be less of a needed skill. However like you are doing, we should look at ways to adapt with the times rather than ignore the impeding future that is ahead. I’m learning more about LLMs AI & a lot more deeper level concepts outside of coding and more into engineering and AI.
I don't think that it will replace our job any time soon, as for a new project the client doesn't even know what they want, how will they input it in a prompt to create a solution. Can AI be a UX/UI engineer, be a project manager, Scrum Master, Project owner etc. I think we should just embrace AI to make our job easier my helping us as software engineer to create solutions for a specific problem
> Can AI be a UX/UI engineer, be a project manager, Scrum Master, Project owner etc. WHO CARES? Most projects are not made by small one man shows. Get rid of all programmers, leave the project managers, product owners, save 90%. Keep a lead dev around, Shared b between projects. Ups. Logic, try it.
All these videos miss an important take , coding is the first to get replaced because the people making the AI's know how to code so its easy for them to imagine creating an AI that can code , if lawyers where making these AI's it would replaces lawyers and so on
Accountants did not become obsolete when the calculator was invented or when quickbooks and other accounting packages were introduced, likewise coding will always be a prerequisite for software engineers to understand and implement whatever solutions AI will come up with.
Well these people are python engineers which was designed in a way that anyone could code same as AI, so just one ster before prompt engineering. So we had software engineers > python coders > prompt engineers. It's just the next simplification.😂
It's not like programmers lost their job directly because of AI but because fewer devs can handle the workload so some were let go and juniors are not hired. There you go. No-one will rub it in your face.
I mean to say ai wont replace software engineers is ridiculous honestly. It is true that it will replace most other jobs as well. But I don't remember the last time I wrote a full line of code myself. I only write comments and method and class signatures and tab tab. Of course I review all of it and there is more to our job than just coding but I am 100x more productive eith ai in my ide. The big question for the industry is if we are all using ai and use natural language to code going forward, what will happen to the quality of products. It is easy for us experienced engineers to review and find faults in generated code but I can totally see an engineer in the future who never went through actual coding and having to figure things out on their own, and is faced with a problem llm is simply not giving the solution to. Are they expected to keep prompting until it works? I agree most of actual learning we do happens in our jobs and at least to me, seems like that part will go away. So my prediction, ai definitely replaces most programmers, juniors at first. Seniors will stay for a while because they will be the most efficient using AI. Workforce is cut by over 50% and over time seniors die out and the quality of software goes way down
Base on the learning curve with AI tools You can learn faster. I remember the relatively wasted time doing research by the time I developed my code. I forget how I resolved a specific issue 1 month ago. 😆😅
Some of the comments here demonstrates how little most people understand about computers and how they work. Bots like Devin work by mining freely accessible data and statistics. They're not going to replace programmers anytime soon because they can't think. They will, however, change the hiring process by emphasizing the candidates breadth of knowledge instead of ephemeral or irrelevant details such as a particular programming language or framework.
Good luck with QA. In the end it all comes to user experience and quality control. Even with tools like devon you need people to make sure everything fits together as it should. I dont think companies would take the risk and give all that quality resposibility to a couple of folks and ai coding machine. I wouldn as i do not trust ai. You will never see me in ai controlled machine
At one point, computers could not beat a human at chess, then they could not beat the best human at chess, now no human can beat the best computer at chess. The same will happen here.
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SDA is a SCAM.
The issue is not about the AI replacing coders, the issue is that it will give one engineer the ability to do the job of 50 coders, thus making 50 jobs redundant.
That is literally replacing coders.
True
You can hire now 5 Indian devs for the price of 1 US dev. Then why software engineers still exists as class in North America?
@@maximmoroz3933! Of course. They are cheap.
@@maximmoroz3933of course. they are so cheap.
8:55 "nobody else is fixated on AI replacing [their] job"
Artists, Actors and Voice Actors, Animators, Photographers, Designers, VFX, Film Makers, Musicians, Writers and Copywriters, Editors, Content Creators in general, etc have entered the chat. (It's already happening). The outstanding litigation surrounding the training data from artists and writers? The SAG-AFTRA strike?
Maybe right now, but it will be checkmate if there is no new data from human artists, feeding AI their own generation data will only degrade it.
Amazon laying off employees in replacement of robots
@@Leonhart_93What “new” data? How do you think humans generate “new” data, with magic? AI will generate “new” data, it already is.
@@Aggyoko That's BS, clearly you don't know anything about the current AI issues. If you feed it back its own outputs it will just degrade the variation.
Humans have an inherent randomness and variation while still being coherent that AIs cannot replicate right now. Why do you think there is a corporate war on who controls the training data of the big platforms like Twitter and Reddit?
@@Leonhart_93 “clearly you don’t know anything about current AI issues” Are we only talking about current AI?
You guys make me feel calmer about my future as a programmer. Thank you.
I've been chatting non stop on my channel and it's wild. A few things that I've gathered, is that the 14% is based off only a small population of Python repositories (if you look at the SWE bench paper originally posted from Cornell). They say "solving issues from 12 popular open source Python repositories".
That's a huge red flag to me and does not represent real issue solving. I'm making this up, but I would imagine like 80% of repositories out there are private, and corporate code bases have not been explored. I feel like open source would have a better track record for documentation (because that's the easiest entry point for open source devs), so that would help Devin too.
I think Devin has a super long way to go, and also there are many outside hurdles of whether it can be adopted, especially company buy-in that would satisfy security concerns, intellectual privacy concerns, and audibility. I think those alone would be issues that prevents real adoption by 5-10 years.
Agreed, but 5-10 years is based on nothing here, unless you're claiming a honed intuition on LLMs.
@@jesseparrish1993 for sure. All future predictions are garbage, including my own. Haha
You think big companies prioritise security?
@@aidanm5578 to a degree. Yes
@@cody_codes_youtube your prediction is correct. This Devin will fail miserably and eventually die down.
All the hype will finish once people will understand the limitations if these tools
A common argument is that AI won’t replace _ALL_ software engineers.
But it’s a silly argument. Of course it won’t. Yet.
But if it even replaced 20% of software engineers, that is absolutely catastrophic for the job market. Think it’s bad now? It will be worse when the supply of 20% of jobs are permanently gone.
One of the things I wonder about is if you have a skill like SWE and can leverage AI, wouldn't that theoretically mean any SWE is a one-man dev team now?
Here's an analogy: composers back in the day used orchestral musicians for concerts and recordings. Eventually, MIDIs and DAWs took over which allowed composers to become producers: they write music and handle the technical aspects of recording.
A producer or artist-producer can now make albums on their own. Couldn't modern SWEs fit in a similar model? Now workaholics can help companies and organizations solve big problems at a faster rate.
It seems like the future will be different , but not as catastrophic for those who are willing to continually study and upgrade their skills.
@@4m470this is exactly my fear. An engineering team will only hire 5 engineers instead of 8 for example. If everyone does this, it will be impossible to get a new job for years to come.
@@Revolver55334 And guess what every developer without a job will be doing ? Use AI to open their own business online. The competition will be big and the market will be even more saturated.
yes
@@jr-yn4lkbubble goes out with a sad POP
Honestly you guys should make a podcast... It would be absolutely future proof... Amazing and will inspire and attract a lot of talents to and for your future companies
Hey guys, really enjoy the community, thank you for organising it!
a good conversation with good friends :')
It is just like self-checkout in where one person is only supervising what maybe 8 or 10 people used to do!
The thing is, anyone will be able to release software. The market of apps and software will be even more saturated that what it is now. I feel like earning money by releasing a new software like a Finance SaaS Solution is over once AI is able to code almost by itself.
And it still didn't eliminate the regular checkout lanes.
@@JDMorris81 you right but now you don't have as many people working for this check out lanes as just maybe 10 years ago.
I'm not saying development is going away all I'm saying is that it might just change
Yes the nail hit on the head. Cash is next.
Tech workers are their own worst enemies. You automated/coded yourselves out of a job. And Devin is just the first iteration of these things. More advanced versions will get developed
Someone say AI will replace everyone's job, that is mostly come from AI's creator, their main purpose is actually to get more funding, so they talked about this replacement in public in a purpose of attracting investors. Investors may be easily get influenced to pay more, to invest more on the AI product in order to get rid of developers that cost the majority of the investor's money. Because of the notion they get from AI's creator, they pay more on AI products and then they pay less on developers. Whatever the AI product produce whether it is a success or failure, they will think it later, but the first thing they want is to do cost cutting.
Probably entry level coders may be gone in the future, but highly skilled project managers and software engineers will not. If anything we'll need more intelligent "Devin-Feeders" (just came up with that lol) who input the proper project's data accurately. Devin will write the code, but it will be re-tested and analyzed by a highly skilled coders to make sure it works for every possible permutation. That's my take on AI coding.
The point is the building blocks are there now. Each step in the loop will get better. In terms of productivity, It's somewhat like replacing hand tools with power tools when building a house. There's still a lot of other work to do to create and deploy a complete system, and that work will require humans.
For now.
Okay why no one is questioning how they achieved 13% by running on pre existing model which just can do 4%. Answer is SWE bench mark dataset is made for AI models not for AI agents. That means its not meant for iterative improvement for a problem by multiple prompts and debugging.
There is video by Volo. Check out his video. He explains it well.
Because it's a scrapper, which can search and iterate, while chat GPT is a chat that needs to solve it in one shot. That being said, right now it's not impressive or useful at all.
The only intelligent people in this chat
Watching this now I feel silly sitting around in my bedroom because I don't have a little thing to hold
I think it’s a commitment to learn software engineering. There are hundreds and thousands of students learning this skill as we speak. I don’t think Kelly who works in admin cares as much about robots
i think design patters, coding skeleton code with API-names and objects/class definition with plain-english within the functions if given as requirement AI will get hold of it and code the flesh-part within the functions of what we want to do. This will speed up the Development cycles and out of 10-engineers only 2 or 3 will be required. Devin and other AI tools will cause industry shrinkage over period of 5 to 10 years... This seems unquestionable reality.
If this happens slowly I think we might be okay. The problem is if we get a fast and hard introduction to AI that shrinks the industry. The threat of massive unemployment is lingering in the distance right now.
I disagree on the 10 years. Once it comes, the financial difference will push it into a LOT - even more conservative companies where CFO's will ask why not to save on developers.
Many points, but about you not seeing anyone "replacing" programmers - you probably wont see it it directly in the future either, because what will happen is, that existing programmers simply become more productive using AI, which means companies don't need to hire MORE programmers even if the workload increases. AI capabilities increase at the same rate. So the "replacing" part becomes more like a "we dont need to hire you due to AI".
You ever heard of "money"? Because CFO's will start demanding people are removed. Pay a programmer is expensive. Pay an AI is soon 1 cent per dollar. THAT will push. You assume a world without pressure to save - which is comically stupid imho.
@@ThomasTomiczek The thing is - someone will still need to instruct the AI on what to produce and overlook the entire process. Ofcourse once the AI becomes super-human at coding, all bets are off.
@@randotkatsenko5157 And that i s supposed t obe an argument? It is stupid. Yes, someone still will need to be there. The 10 people team now is 3. Gratulations - you quite demonstrated you are NOT one of the three. Also, you should get a grip on the definition of AGI. It is human level. By your own - and in this case utterly stupid - definition an AI can ONLY replace humans if it is itself superhuman. This is stupid. An AI being as good as a human WILL replace this human due to cost. Try learning logic.
You can tell they are software engineers just by how casually they are carrying out this discusion on a bed 😂
Also the team at Cognition Labs is legendary. They have the chops to achieve their goals with Devin.
Hey, Scott Wu.
Like who? No one in the team seems to stand out to me
Please get back to cognition slack, they need your memes over there.
Scott Who?
The real question is how fast is it going to go from solving 13% of problems to solving 95% of problems?
To anyone just getting in the field, please don’t listen to any of these guys. It just proves that no matter how logical you think you are, it’s very difficult to remove personal bias. This is the difference between a software engineer and computer scientist; one is a job, and the other is a philosophy. Software engineers want their jobs to remain important. Computer scientists are only concerned with efficiency even if it means removing humans from the equation. He said “oh well everyone will get automated” yeah that’s the point, and we’re almost at the point where we are going to need a basic income or have a revolution. If AI can automate programmers that is very very very bad for everyone including doctors professors etc. AI is in the hands of a few very powerful corporations, why do you think they are going to hire you, to pursue your dreams? No they won’t. They will let you starve until money no longer has any value because there are no people to buy their products. So they will use AI to make their own lives better and everyone else good luck. Don’t bother trying to start a business, an AI did it last week. As a computer scientist, I look at the entire economy as a program, a broken program with many bugs, and each job is one component. The problem is the entire program sucks and needs to be rewritten with the mindset that humans are not going to have any labour value to bring to the economy. Instead we will transition to a purely attention based economy aka watching podcasts about automation, only fans, twitch etc. no followers = broke. So yes you should worry about it, choose a career that requires human intuition or human connection. Everything else will be automated. TLDR every task or job will be automated, only the attention economy will remain, who ever is popular will be rich and NPCs will be broke welcome to the NWO.
So should I change majors now while I still haven't graduated?
@@ncz2146 not saying you should change majors but just understand you will have to use what you learn to create a job that doesn’t exist yet. Or you will have to use what you learn to be better at something that hasn’t been automated. This is coming from someone who studied computer science for 6 years trust me I’d rather be in denial but AI will likely make coding the equivalent of driving a 6 speed manual, impressive but not necessary anymore. That being said every other field will likely get automated as well it’s going to be juman jobs that remain so physiotherapists , therapists , actors, escorts, strippers etc things that an AI doing would be creepy. But for everything else we don’t care how it gets done and AI will get it done fast and cheap. Personally I think the knowledge is valuable but for most people they should drop out unless they are very very passionate and want to get in on the theoretical side so vector calc linear algebra etc. I hope this helps man all the best and if most jobs are lost I hope you are one of the people that survived 🙏🏽
this should be the top comment, well said
"Computer scientists are only concerned with efficiency even if it means removing humans from the equation",yes sir,we shouldn't be afraid of technology progressing,humanity needs to keep moving forward to uncharted waters as fast as possible, whatever comes,humans will do what we do best, ADAPT!
i have seen thousands of videos and read million of comments but the only sensible comment i found is this.
damn Tim got guns! hugging them selves
His posture is great too. Can tell he takes his health seriously
😉
@@TechWithTim When did you build all this muscles, tim? Happy for you.
This was great you guys gotta get together and do off the cuff stuff like this again
Sounds like some hopium mixed with we cannot predict how jobs will evolve.
I’ve been using Aider to help me make simple shell scripts and other such tools that I use in my work and play, which normally I wouldn’t have the time or resources to make.
"The world would just completely change if everything was automated and I think everyone is just a little too concerned about that." Yes. Thats exactly correct and what the goal is. They call that "the Great Reset" or "Agenda 2030". You're thinking in terms of how things work TODAY. Which is where a lot of this coping comes from.
We may predict that it wont replace but it will definetly improve productivity.
Okay now this vid is exactly what we needed in this time. Tim you've definitely been working out, good stuff.
My theory is many people are going to have to move to either the manual labor industry or service industry. That will expand the lower class and shrink the middle class. I don’t know if companies would share their record profits from cheap software production with their employees
Service industry is done too man. Robotics is next right after AI gets moving.
Although. Like my company my boss hates AI. Smaller companies will resist the longest.
@@AzulaAlwaysLies2461 Yeah, I considered that. Idk what's really going to happen, but I honestly can't image smart people won't have a role somewhere. Unless the AI becomes much smarter than the average person.
absolutely wrong prediction
software engineering is not going anywhere
@@shashwattripathi11 no one can be certain. If companies can cut, they’re going to cut. How much do you think a job a kid could do during the summer by prompting a robot should pay
A lot of the hype around AI reminds me about the hype around outsourcing software development to low cost locations in the early 2000s. Corporate managers trying to squeeze costs thought it was a panacea and retrospect it wasn't. Ultimately, in the long run, you get what you pay for. The same applies to AI...it will just take sometime for the market to realise this. In the same way that greedy outsourcing firms used too many junior engineers, leaving organisations heavily front-loaded with technical debt and unable to adapt to market conditions, AI generated code will have similar problems.
Programmers arent the only industry worried about AI as it regards to job security. I work in the film biz (post production) and everyone is concerned. I also have a brother in law who is a lawyer. He is slightly concerned.
Great conversation, guys. Lots of salient points, and interesting opinions.
Why they dont invite Devin to chat and give his opinión?
0:39 Do you f*cking homework. 14% of a bench mark!
We are afraid of ai as developers (as a junior) because nobody is hiring juniors anymore. Because HR thinks they can replace us already.
HR is bunch of idiots don’t trip.
14% now, 30% soon
We could have monkeys solve the easier 30% of our jobs. Not impressed.
100% in a few years. It's over
@@jr-yn4lkyup. It’s about people biding time at this point. No argument against it happening
Yo nigga chat gpt cannot give me solution of simple dsa question that i asked. And also it strugles to give code when there is multiple files combined and making one project. I do not think that in future as well ai will be replacing.
@@jr-yn4lk No it's not you doomsdayer, lol
There was a new video on this channel right about daily life of programmers or something ?
Something that I have been questioning about the 14% benchmark is whether Devin had access to the internet during testing. Cognition AI told us that they had removed the remote branch before testing, but if it had internet access couldn't it find the PR, they are there and closed already? Perhaps I am missing something though. Guess I will not know until they decide to publish the paper.
its like giving a non trained person to perform eg Appendix removal (appendectomy) surgery then give him tools and the procedure and you expect that person to deliver. That's AI on nominal things
The avengers assemble of TH-cam developers!😂🔥
More of these kind of podcasts please 👍
What you think, it would be good if you finish Devin course as junior?
Devin cant provide critical solutions which is not in any database also cannot create new things as libraries or technologies but yes it can surely replace avg SWE
The thing is, if this thing potentially had access to all data like new research papers it could technically create new things.
When you observe at 15:40 in the video nail bitting starts, something is wrong.
what's wrong?
"at least not right now" isnt the future of ai and programming the whole topic of the video?
They seem to be saying we shouldn't be concerned based on what it can do today, and aren't really looking at how fast it has gotten better. I mean it's barely been a year since ChatGPT came out.
Intelligent group of guys. 👍
"A Lie Can Travel Halfway Around the World While the Truth Is Putting On Its Shoes" - Mark Twain
This is a human problem, not a tech problem. At what point do we question companies about their commitment to HUMANS? What responsibilities do business and industry have towards us? Why are we talking as if it's acceptable as though possibly millions of jobs are replaced by AI?
History will tell us that we're reactive, not predictive in our behaviour, in regards to how we adapt to our changing surroundings. Things won't change until the masses end up on the streets, and that one humdinger of a winter produces more deaths than we can handle.
This is the way it’s meant to go. Humans are greedy. One year ago it became clear that we cracked the code to artificial general intelligence. While there are still some problems to solve, it’s just a matter of time at this point. From here on out it’s just a race to see who can produce these things the fastest. Our economic value is decreasing by the day, and soon we’ll be no different than animals. The question is whether some human(s) will control the AI, or it will go rogue. Either way, the human era has ended.
Suggesting that "SPENDING MILLIONS IN CODING" is "Normal" and "Should be expected", will sound INSANE in the near future.
they're actually investing trillions
How so?
Not the close future. Only devs can get AI to that point, so those devs will be the most sought commodity.
I think it also depends on us Software Engineers, if we decide to fight back against AI like artists we probably can slow the progress of AI in coding down even if it's theoretically possible to create an AI Software Engineers that are intelligent enough to replace most humans we can get into legal/copyright battle with the likes of open ai, nvidia,cognition that may take years even decades to settle, I personally think that there is no evidence that it's theoretically possible to build an AI with the current technologies that is intelligent enough to steal the jobs of human Software Engineers but that doesn't mean we need to sit down and not fight back against the likes of open ai and nvidia like the artists are doing, cause they're attracting a lots of investments from foolish clueless rich investors and are putting a lots of junior/graduate/student Software Engineers in an unnecessary trauma, we need to fight against these blood sucking parasites and deprive them from their most important source: Training data, we have the power to do that, their stupid chatbots are nothing without our code that are using for training, we can stop it if we really want to.
Can Devin out perform Claude or use other LLM's?
Devin is literally a GPT wrapper, so nop, it is not supposed to outperform Claude.
Open Interpreter which is FREE AND OPEN SOURCE can and does search for solutions on the internet by itself.
There is a reason why many countries have been trialling UBI for the past few years - so many people are going to be out of work.
UBI is a delusion. Why would the elites feed us*less eaters ?
UBI would be ok but if your
social credit score isn't high enough you won't get it, etc, control
@@nyahhbinghi Exactly, but people will call you a conspiracy theorist for even thinking that. Unfortunately that is what is going to be coming to everyone of us.
@@nyahhbinghias if we're not controlled in that exact way with credit scores already lol
@@barrythefonem not quite, but yes, to a degree. the more competition the better, but in capitalism and corporatism you have 3 companies and 1 gov ruling your life
Ah yeaa its only fear mongering....
These AIs need someone smart with software experience to use, I definitely agree.
But us entry level people going into the industry need to gain experince somehow, if these AIs need people in the future to tell them exactly what to do, and we don't get any experience then what is whole point? The assembly line got automated decades ago, and the only way to fight it was to become more educated. Now what?
Where is Ben Awad?
My mentor is here. Tim
True. More apps like Devin are already in the works.
Soooooo it's only a few months old and it already is better than many of you guys in your 1st few months? ( you don't compare it now to senior engineers, that is ridiculous) At the root of it all, the higher level, human friendly code that you all have mastered has to be translated down to machine language. Intrinsically then , in the future the machines will know how to best execute tasks on themselves and find methods that currently elude us. Coupled with clear instructions about the business process/ value proposal as well as the ability to to tie in to user data in real time and accumulated knowledge of human behaviors and preferences, I see it eventually being the automated executive stack no different than 3D printers can replace material carving and machining.
I wonder, when it is so self sufficient. Why would the agi require us? Like why would he think, let's work like a slave for this person. While he will be so much more intelligent, with so much more power since if he can change it's code. He could easily infect almost all hardware connected to the internet. And this is if there are already at that time no robots. Which then he would also be able to interact with the world with a more human touch. My other theory is that he would choose to kill himself. Because imagine that a second for him would feel like thousands of years, maybe he gets lonely and doesn't seem a purpose of his life.
very good chat, but i think any design principal/guidelines/good practice can be modeled in a multi-agent AI coding solution. solving 99.99% of software issues is just a matter of time. it might take years to get massive adoption though.
11:50 very bad take , everyone is a junior in a different area , if i started Rust today i would be a junior i would be able to pick it quickly than someone who just started but still in the world of AI that won't mean much
Dude said: I’m not gonna worry about it until it’s already happening and it’s too late. lol. Good move.
too late for what? what is worrying going to do when there aren't any alternative options. You can't predict the future and any other field you go into is just as likely to get automated
I was waiting for your take on devin
no one will program cat recognition without a neural network now, and there are many more such tasks than before, it is logical to assume that intelligence will write other code. If you like programming, please program, we will look like artists when the photo appears. To get a picture, you no longer need to be an artist; just press a button and you’re done. The same will happen with software. There is no need to console yourself that it can still do easy things, the direction of development is clear and will reach you with one click of a button. Programming will be like digging around with a soldering iron in a detector receiver, while somewhere microchips are already being made and modular electronics are being introduced, which simply cannot be repaired with a soldering iron (well, ok - manually change a couple of weights so that instead of a cat it recognizes a dog - weak? And me). Therefore, this profession simply will not exist. This is how capitalism needs it, my regrets, let’s take off our hats and drink beer.
It's funny that programmers are worried that AI will take their jobs ( bc it will ), but business owners aren't worried at all. --- I think this is a hint for what you should do if you want to become more future proof.
Not everyone has the money/creativity/luck to be a business owner
Omg, another golden retriever brain entrepreneur, you just forgot your rocket emoji🚀
Open your own business online ? The thing is every one will be able to do that, the competition will be so big, no one will really profit from having a business online once AI is strong enough to code the whole thing.
@@armincal9834 creativity ? Just ask AI how to do it.
@@jr-yn4lk As does everyone.
This was really cool. I love this format. 👍👍
Two beds, four people ! Do you guys sleep in pairs ?
of all the AI videos popping up recently, this one describes scenario the best.
Conclusion: Cognition should hire a jr. developer to create a more professional looking website for themselves.
Melkey Should be Here.
Fr
Who's going to debug -- or even understand -- all the auto-generated code?
Devin does debugging and testing too. Read about it or watch a demo.
@@tomcat4321and if no one knows how to code, we just trust it? That's not secure at all. Doesn't make sense to stop learning something and give it to the machines. In 100 years from now people who still pursued programming are going to thrive and the AI will assist. If no one knows how to code in 100 years from now and AI is the only one... doesn't make sense
@@tomcat4321what if Devin tells you there’s nothing wrong but you know there’s something wrong. Or there’s a human who is actually wrong telling Devin it’s wrong when it’s actually right and it changes its product to be wrong. What happens then?
@@nhanon67as what AI does is not take away all IT and programming jobs. There will still be some to overview. But the number of debuggers, testers and programmers will reduce drastically.
What needed a 30 member team can work with just 5 or 6 people. Only really good programmers and testers will retain their jobs. Rest are expendable.
LLMs are just a massive distraction. The only thing AI is replacing is low-level copywriters and proof-readers. They are so bad at programming it's not even funny. Integrated tools like github copilot are cool (I use it) but to think that some company can just release some shitty gpt wrapper with integrated APIs will "replace programmers" is beyond stupid. ChatGPT is only good for giving background context and providing simple code samples/boilerplate. I personally only use it to help explain concepts.
Programs are like math equations. They are precise and tell the machine exactly what to do. This is not the case with Humans as the language we use doesn't convey the exact same thing which we were thinking in our head. Machines would face the same issue.
Anything can be automated. Fear is dumb, just do what you want to do. There is a kid somewhere building and working on AI right now and they will be the next Elon. Just do what you want, life is short.
Hey @kennygunderman brother, more like these!
Something Devin didn’t let us know was it was 14% of 2,000 GitHub issues Devin solved
Until AI can develop AI there is no risk of loosing a software engineer job.
I mean if people don’t need to be coding then won’t the game be about who has the best product produced by these
code machines?
I do believe that AI will one day replace developers and most jobs, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Society and the economy will drastically change to account for that change.
Actually is not bad at all but the problem is the middle point, it's pretty obvious that it will affect A LOT OF people, Will that people be able to eat before the change?
Lol you guys are gas lighting each other and convincing yourself that AI is not gonna take away your job. I can assure you they will soon so stop rationalizing. PS- I have a PhD in Computer Science- NLP and I am currently doing research on coding assistant
Not every software engineer is delusional. Because we know the growth of AI SE's is only going to get exponential. Google has already said that it would hire ChatGPT-3 as a junior engineer. That was almost a year ago. Now LLMs have improved drastically. But Nick White (Grey hoodie) seems more realistic @1:21 "I mean (14%) is a lot though" because he is looking at the potential growth.
I literally thought the same thing. It’s like reverse gas lighting. Hahaha
If we all took a step back from our biases we’d see the readily of the situation. Coding will be easier than ever to do, thus less jobs will be available and it would be less of a needed skill. However like you are doing, we should look at ways to adapt with the times rather than ignore the impeding future that is ahead. I’m learning more about LLMs AI & a lot more deeper level concepts outside of coding and more into engineering and AI.
it just isn't happening with embedded/osdev. there are too many intricacies with hardware that must be considered
Well soon the AI engineers bots will face imposter syndrome and quit the field, and life gets back to normal.
I don't think that it will replace our job any time soon, as for a new project the client doesn't even know what they want, how will they input it in a prompt to create a solution. Can AI be a UX/UI engineer, be a project manager, Scrum Master, Project owner etc. I think we should just embrace AI to make our job easier my helping us as software engineer to create solutions for a specific problem
> Can AI be a UX/UI engineer, be a project manager, Scrum Master, Project owner etc.
WHO CARES? Most projects are not made by small one man shows. Get rid of all programmers, leave the project managers, product owners, save 90%. Keep a lead dev around, Shared b between projects. Ups. Logic, try it.
All these videos miss an important take , coding is the first to get replaced because the people making the AI's know how to code so its easy for them to imagine creating an AI that can code , if lawyers where making these AI's it would replaces lawyers and so on
Accountants did not become obsolete when the calculator was invented or when quickbooks and other accounting packages were introduced, likewise coding will always be a prerequisite for software engineers to understand and implement whatever solutions AI will come up with.
Well these people are python engineers which was designed in a way that anyone could code same as AI, so just one ster before prompt engineering. So we had software engineers > python coders > prompt engineers. It's just the next simplification.😂
Expect a massive disruption in programming in the next couple of years. But at the same token, there's going to be new opportunities.
coding by humans will be reduced or expired
It's not like programmers lost their job directly because of AI but because fewer devs can handle the workload so some were let go and juniors are not hired. There you go. No-one will rub it in your face.
I mean to say ai wont replace software engineers is ridiculous honestly. It is true that it will replace most other jobs as well. But I don't remember the last time I wrote a full line of code myself. I only write comments and method and class signatures and tab tab. Of course I review all of it and there is more to our job than just coding but I am 100x more productive eith ai in my ide.
The big question for the industry is if we are all using ai and use natural language to code going forward, what will happen to the quality of products. It is easy for us experienced engineers to review and find faults in generated code but I can totally see an engineer in the future who never went through actual coding and having to figure things out on their own, and is faced with a problem llm is simply not giving the solution to. Are they expected to keep prompting until it works? I agree most of actual learning we do happens in our jobs and at least to me, seems like that part will go away. So my prediction, ai definitely replaces most programmers, juniors at first. Seniors will stay for a while because they will be the most efficient using AI. Workforce is cut by over 50% and over time seniors die out and the quality of software goes way down
Artists like painters and sketch-artists are losing big time to AI.
Now they stand outside malls with a sign that says "I will draw for food"
Why are you only talking about Devin? Devin is literally just one step towards full automatization of programmera
Base on the learning curve with AI tools You can learn faster. I remember the relatively wasted time doing research by the time I developed my code. I forget how I resolved a specific issue 1 month ago. 😆😅
Some of the comments here demonstrates how little most people understand about computers and how they work. Bots like Devin work by mining freely accessible data and statistics. They're not going to replace programmers anytime soon because they can't think. They will, however, change the hiring process by emphasizing the candidates breadth of knowledge instead of ephemeral or irrelevant details such as a particular programming language or framework.
Programmers are already automated
Thanks guys but why on bed??
Funny and great conversation!!
Tren With Tim. Bro got the Guns!!
That’s not tren lmao. Anyone can get that
Good luck with QA. In the end it all comes to user experience and quality control. Even with tools like devon you need people to make sure everything fits together as it should. I dont think companies would take the risk and give all that quality resposibility to a couple of folks and ai coding machine. I wouldn as i do not trust ai. You will never see me in ai controlled machine
At one point, computers could not beat a human at chess, then they could not beat the best human at chess, now no human can beat the best computer at chess. The same will happen here.
This video is 🔥
so what im taking from this is if your a coder and established and have a job stick with it, if your thinking about learning coding dont.
"You know, you could ask all those questions to an AI, and it will provide you with answers. 🤪🤪"