Maximizing Blackjack Wins: The Science of Bet Sizing
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ก.ค. 2024
- If you're ready to beat blackjack and have mastered keeping the count, you might think it's time to hit the casino and start betting big. Or, what if you've clocked hundreds of hours of practice and still aren't sure about the right bet size? In this video Colin unravels the critical role of tailoring your bet spread to your specific situation and the game's conditions. Discover the strategic steps that empowered "Bob" the card counter to amplify their Expected Value (EV) by more than tenfold. It's not just about counting cards - it's about making every bet count.
Checkout the Blackjack Apprenticeship Membership:
www.blackjackapprenticeship.c...
SUBSCRIBE for Card Counting training:
th-cam.com/users/subscription_...
Get access to our FREE Card Counting Mini-Course:
www.blackjackapprenticeship.c...
www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/
/ blackjackapprenticeship
Basic Strategy:
www.blackjackapprenticeship.c...
How do you not play during negative counts? If you're the only one at the table...do you just walk?
yes
Yes. The most common excuse is the “restrooom” trick. walk away, Actually use the restroom or not, then return on a new shoe. or you can get creative with other excuses. anything you can come up with that will get you away from the bad shoe works.
@@ooxmanoo I just pull out my phone. Then they say you can't have your phone out. And I say sorry and leave. Makes it look like they made your leave. 😅
I sometimes say, "I need to count my chips" (pretend to count my chips but still keep my eye on the dealt cards). Of course this only works if there's others at the table. My rule is, if I'm by myself, I peace out at true count -2 because it's so bad and it's unlikely the count will recover to a good positive number by the end of the shoe
@@ooxmanooI've been backed a few times getting up on negatives
Perfect timing. I’ve been struggling with bet strategy and need to get into the software and take advantage of my BJA membership. So much to learn!
Hands down, this info is priceless for all card counters. I've ran many Sims on many games now and know the best options in my area. To be honest though they are few and far between which is gonna force me to expand my local area. I know where I'm going. Thanks Colin it really is the only way!
Always great content here! Thank you so much Colin, I hope to become a BJA member very soon!
Colin does such a good job explaining the game! Want to meet him one day!! #goals
Thank you. Great content.
Great stuff.
Alot of people say they are comfortable with a 50% downswing or a 5% ROR till that downswing comes.
So Instead of using software measuring ROR, I prefer using software measuring risk of drawdown.
It preserves mental capital and more precisely paints a picture of what you can expect.
Much needed video. We play around with the software but would love a walkthrough of how to use it effectively
Maybe Colin could take one of the open chat sessions in BJA to cover this.
Great video, i try to use cvx software for trying to figure out my bet spreads since i use a Hi-Opt 2 count, i just wish your betting software and simulation games could account for other betting systems because your system is so much more streamlined and user friendly!
Niiice, I needed this!
Great video ! Thanks
♣️♦️❤️♠️
I work 10 years as a dealer 2 years as surveillance now I’m a dealer again I think is time to perfect card counting wish me luck
Do the casino’s try to kick out card counters
Back in the 90s myself and others were betting according to the Kelly criterion. I should have had a bigger spread, but being new, I was afraid of getting barred.
Informative!
Merry Christmas Colin!
Same to you!
This is the key video I need in my game, thank you so much!
What a promo for the PBS!
One rule you should add to that calculator is "Dealer checks for blackjack before player action (Yes or No)". I've seen a lot of games where the dealer DOESN'T check for blackjack and I have to imagine this has a significantly negative effect on the player edge since you'd probably never want to double down anytime the dealer has an ace or 10, and probably skip splitting a lot of times too?
That's called ENHC (European No Hole Card) rules and is an option in the software that can be switched on. You're correct that strategy-wise it heavily disincentivizes doubles and splits, as well as increases your surrenders, depending on the surrender rules, against a dealer A or 10.
I've only seen that online, not in a real casino. But I didn't know or realize, until I DD and THEN the dealer flipped over a BJ 😡
You stand or hit based on the basic chart.
@@present3348
@@joeyvindictive3552 I’ve been playing in Monaco this week and all casinos here have ENHC
Colin, I think you need a video on how to manage recordkeeping for tax purposes as a professional gambler.
I actually tried to count at the casino... it really needs patience... I have no patience! the game goes on and on and it just almost zeros out after every hand... blackjack is simply not for me LOL
Atleast your honest
If you can, try to find a single or double deck game in your area that's beatable. That's kind of a tall order because a lot of casinos don't offer that type of game anymore, but the TC goes up and down in wild shifts from hand to hand
It evened out after every hand? Every time I play it’s takes a nose dive to a true -10 every time I play in a casino and stays here till I’m broke hahaha
@tmtmtlsml be careful on them single and double deck hands. Alot of them are dine with hand shuffle and dealing. Those dealers will second card u alot of the time and u never even notice it. If u play single or double deck make sure it still is dealt out of a shoe
@@robdishjr4912 none of that would have any effect on counting though, so what's your point?
Hey Colin!! I was wondering what your thoughts are on the Kelly Criterion? Should we try to size our bets accordingly?
In 1964 I met a counter who always played 1st base, full table, varying bets very conservatively, and camped out. I criticized his tactics of camping out for hours mostly, but also playing at full tables. I suggested he play on a team that bet the minimum and signaled him when the count was high. He wouldn't even try it. I think he didn't trust others. His one good trick was to opt out of bad counts by pretending to prepare his pipe for a smoke. His continued play at Harvey's South Shore got him thrown out the front door into the street, chips following. He was the first counter I knew of to get barred. I warned him.
Nice video Colin i dont play unless the count is true 2 or better.
So do you only ever Wong In? That means playing tables already in action. Do you ever play HU?
I Wong in with true 2 or better
I mostly win money on negative count losing money when the true count is high and I raise the bet.😅
How do you research casinos before you go?
I have 2 questions. In the example from the video, the player has a 1-10 bet spread with a $25 unit but at a count >= 5 it has 150x2, is that not higher than our spread since it is $300 in play?
Other question is, when leaving for negative counts, is there x # of hands before considering this? For example, if I'm on DD playing HU and get 20 and dealer has 20, we are at -4 running with a -2 True, so should we really leave after the first hand, especially if there is not other tables available?
What riff is that in the beginning
Hi Colin, have you ever thought of making a discord community? I struggle to find people starting out like myself and I think learning together and having others to talk to would be great
We have a really strong & helpful community on our website that includes a Forum/Chat app: www.blackjackapprenticeship.com
I wonder if you can count cards on video game blackjack in the casino that simulates decks
The casino near me does not have tables only video game poker, blackjack, etc and slots
But it simulates decks and shuffles
I have never once come across a video blackjack game that could be beaten, and I doubt it exists; otherwise, smart gamblers would just make an unlimited amount of money off them and never be backed off. They tend to shuffle the deck after every hand and have terrible rules as well to push the house edge well over 1%.
How come the program did not lower the number of hands per hour when you avoid negative counts? There is a lot of time involved in sitting out hands, switching tables, waiting for a new shoe at the next table or current table. Especially if you are either sitting out or switching tables at a count of -2. This happens quite often.
Hey Colin... One question... when do one actually start counting... like when i start online or visit actual naigra falls casino, there is ongoing games... When do i start counting.. do I wait till they bring out a new shoe and then sit at the table?
I wouldn't recommend counting at an online table. You would start counting at the beginning of shoe. We have a Free Mini Video course that goes over everything: www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/card-counting-mini-course-opt-in/
How do you not play when the count isn’t in your favor, do you simply leave?
"Bathroom break" or switch tables.
Great ad for the software. 😅
I'm curious what the math looks like for a card counter that enters in mid shoe and starts counting without an accurate true count. I would assume we could do so profitably, but would make it harder to predict EV. Can you test this situation for us? How would adjusting bets with this "inaccurate" count effect EV when half the time the deck is under-counted and the other half its over-counted? Great content!
You can't start mid shoe, no math in this world can help you there
If you're entering midshoe it should be after backcounting and entering at an advantageous positive count, which of course would improve your EV.
@@Blackjackapprenticeshipwhat if the count was really low before you started backcountng. Couldn't that throw off your true count
When's that version of PBS gunna be available?
ASAP. Hopefully by Jan 1.
Very good video. What area of the country was he in?
Can't say. Sorry.
Do you sell the betting software as a stand alone? I see it listed on the website as a $99 value
No, everything is part of our Membership.
Hi Colin, I might not know much about card counting, but I know a LOT about math (physics masters, have worked in data science). I'm curious, why are you using risk of ruin as the framework for bet sizing, and not Kelly Criterion? I would have expected Kelly to be the foundation for any betting system in any probabilistic game, regardless if it's poker, sports betting, blackjack, etc. With Kelly there's no "risk of ruin", that shouldn't even be a concept, as your bankroll just falls gently and exponentially on a down streak. Not saying everyone should follow Kelly 100%, sometimes betting below Kelly can help mitigate risk, but IMO Kelly makes way more sense as the main betting system framework once you wrap your mind around it. Or maybe you do use it, I just feel like I haven't seen you mention it in any of your videos.
It's a good question Scott with a long nuanced answer but the shorter version is that Kelly criterion was originally developed for wealth management, it results in a 13.5% risk of ruin for the AP BJ player. This is about an order of magnitude higher RoR than any veteran AP would recommend. The problem is the Kelly algorithm is based on continuously changing one’s bet. This is not really practical in the casino world.
Let me see if I can try to explain it better...
I agree that going full Kelly is probably high risk, and it might not wise to do so.
I also agree that there might be valid AP reasons to not change bet sizes after walking into a casino, as I'm not an expert in card counting.
What I AM saying is Kelly is almost certainly the more correct top-level paradigm to be thinking under, as opposed to risk of ruin.
Every time you walk into a casino you put some % of your bankroll into casino chips, and every time you bet you put some % of you bankroll on each hand (albeit small, maybe it's around 0.1% or 0.01%). Any ideal betting system should always scale these %'s with bankroll. If you lose 10% of your bankroll you should ideally bet 10% less (but maybe not until the next casino trip), and same if you grow by 10%.
Kelly is about thinking under an exponential (bankroll growth) paradigm, whereas risk-of-ruin is thinking under a linear (bet-same-amount-until-bust) paradigm. Every time you bet your bankroll either grows or shrinks by a certain average growth factor g. Kelly is about maximizing this growth rate from first principles.
Maybe risk-of-ruin is just the more common lingo among APers, and it just never crossed your radar all that much. If you're still unsure, you can run your own simulations - start with some bankroll B, and run different Kelly strategies (full Kelly, Kelly/2, Kelly/10, etc) and check the average growth+variance after N hands.
Also maybe APers already adjust each casino trip bet size based on % of current bankroll, in which case you're already doing this. This might be the case for example if you adjust betting to keep RoR the same after each win or loss.
Hi i have been applying your strategy online blackjack and have been making profit slowly. Its evolution gaming Infinite blackjack.
The rules are
• It uses eight decks of playing cards
• The dealer always stands on 17(including soft 17)
• Double down on any two initial cards
• Split initial cards of equal value
• Only one Split per hand
• No Draw to Split Aces
• No Double Down after Split
• Insurance can be purchased when the dealer shows an Ace
• Blackjack pays 3:2
• Insurance pays 2:1
• No Surrender
• Dealer checks for Blackjack only on Ace, not 10
Because it is online i can only bet when i have true count of at least 1. Do u think i actually have the odds can u calculate it for me? Or have i just been getting lucky? I dont want to play a negative EV game
Only thing is deck penetration is about half
We discuss online playing in more depth here:
th-cam.com/video/aQDrzJF82k0/w-d-xo.html
Have you ever thought about counting at a casino with lucky ladies and max bet when the count gets to true 5 let’s say
How about a list of these bad casinos?
Our membership includes an updated casino database called Casino 411 showing rules/conditions, number of tables, & latest reviews.
Do you have a podcast?
We do:
www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/blackjack-apprenticeship-podcast/
What’s that site he uses to calculate that
This is our proprietary betting software - www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/
Hello sir the Blackjack in US is different compared to Germany, when the dealer deals the cards they only deal 1 card for the dealer and 2 cards for the players, and after the players are satisfied with their cards the dealer THEN deals his/her card. and my question is. does this make the Casino a higher chances of winning doing this?
Correct, outside of the US most games are ENHC (European No Hole Card) and they change how often we split and double when the dealer shows a 10 or A to accommodate.
@@Blackjackapprenticeship The thing is.. some places even with no hole card ENHC in Canada especially... Your splits & doubles are INSURED or SAFE against a dealers blackjack.. so you still double or split like usual.. but be sure the dealer might take both your bets you have to catch that..
Main Difference then becomes EARLY surrender for lack of a 2nd dealer card & no checking of blackjack.. Often times no surrender against Ace is a rule.. but early surrender 15 vs 10 & 16 vs 10 becomes even more advantageous
How much for a Bja membership? How much is cvcx?
It depends on the Version. Google "qfit blackjack" and you'll see the prices.
Is it optimal to play by yourself when counting?
Definitely
There are many plays: solo, solo HU, couples, and team. There are ways to make money on all of them.
I would say yes, not because other players affect how often you win or lose but because you play more hands in per hour, increasing your expected hourly rate.
How can you not bet at -2 or -3 if you are heads up with the dealer? Makes no sense. If anything playing with more people is better because you get to see more cards to count for free.
8,8 vs 9,10,ace is it a split or surrender?
We have a whole expanded deviation chart that covers this move: members.blackjackapprenticeship.com/h17-expanded/
Im joining BJA with a friend and we have a goal of taking a counting trip in 6 months, you think its reasonable?
Yeah, if you train hard.
Train hard, simulate, deal to each other, test out at 100% multiple times. My girlfriend and I are just hitting 5 months of intense training, testing out, and live simulations, and our first local action is this week!
The casinos in New Zealand have no discard tray 💀💀💀
But this requires you to wong out and increases your chances of being backed off.
How to get software?
It's our own software available to members.
Wonder what Colin has to say about more and more blackjack tables being 6:5. All the places I used to play are now 6:5 and use nothing but card shuffle machines.
Time to find new places to play.
SO! You not only need a perfect game, you have to know the rules of the game in every casino you enter, and many of them are not favorable. So be very selective about where to play. It looks to me that playing for a living is not a job for a family man, You have to travel the country, looking for the "right" game, then get backed off, and hit the road again, Looks like a real nomadic existence.
Indeed. That’s what it takes
"Variance is a 4 letter word"
Someone explain I'm dumb lol.
Colin, they caught one of your guys at Foxwoods Casino. Playing 50x2 and was so obvious. Trespassed…. This is tribal land. He is lucky that’s all he got.
Dont be confused with the 21% r.o.r
This number will drop with the first positive swing of variance if u keep the same spead.
Even if the positive swing don't kick early u still can cut down your spread by wong out earlier
first
Your family must be so proud
worst
Don't fool us players
The casino stops card counting anyway
I got in 250 hours in 2023.
FANTASTIC CONTENT- quick question - does this work on online casinos, are the results better or worse than real casinos? any important differences?👍👍👍🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🚀🚀🚀🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
We discuss playing online more in depth here: th-cam.com/video/aQDrzJF82k0/w-d-xo.htmlsi=XfdTIPG8GephMni0