Annie Jacobsen | Nuclear War
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 มิ.ย. 2024
- Would you even have time to duck and cover?
There is only one scenario other than an asteroid strike that could end the world as we know it in a matter of hours: nuclear war. And one of the triggers for that war would be a nuclear missile inbound toward the United States.
Every generation, a journalist has looked deep into the heart of the nuclear military establishment: the technologies, the safeguards, the plans, and the risks. These investigations are vital to how we understand the world we really live in-where one nuclear missile will beget one in return, and where the choreography of the world’s end requires massive decisions made on seconds’ notice with information that is only as good as the intelligence we have.
In her new book Nuclear War: A Scenario, Pulitzer Prize finalist Annie Jacobsen explores this ticking-clock scenario, based on dozens of exclusive new interviews with military and civilian experts who have built the weapons, have been privy to the response plans, and have been responsible for those decisions should they have needed to be made.
Join us as Jacobsen returns for a new Club program examining the handful of minutes after a nuclear missile launch.
Photo by Hilary Jones.
March 26, 2024
Speakers
Annie Jacobsen
Journalist; Author, Nuclear War: A Scenario; X @AnnieJacobsen
In Conversation with Quentin Hardy
Independent tech writer
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Just finished the book. Maybe the most important book of the 21st Century. Unless massive changes are made immediately it is OBVIOUS this scenario will play out. Not if but when. Going to start living each day as if its my last.
That's how people lived during the last cold war...people are just being reintroduced to it.
We thought all of that in my teens, 65 years ago. Things have moved on now. That book is old hat. Nukes would be detonated above earth so as to destroy computers and the electric grid.
I am a Cold War sailor and loaded many nuclear weapons onboard aircraft carriers during training drills meant to keep us ready should the President order that task. We did our jobs without question, and we did it with precision. Those days went away under President Clinton where the training stopped and we ‘could neither confirm or deny’ that nuclear weapons were onboard aircraft carriers.
I cannot say if that was a good thing or not. I suppose having fewer nukes at the ready are a good thing IF all sides are on par with it.
It saddens me that the United States abandoned civil readiness for a nuclear strike. Essentially our politicians have the bunkers and the population does not. That should be a crime. Ironically Russia has massive nuclear fallout shelters for their city dwellers. They run drills and estimates are millions of their civilians could survive a strike.
With all of our waste in spending we spend not one dime on fallout shelters.
To think the existing U.S President at any given time has the veto power to make the decision to launch. It’s not just one weapon of mass destruction it’s the entire system and it’s insane numbers of these devices. Consider eminent destruction within an hour.
They might survive, but they’d starve to death afterwards. The US realized it was a useless distraction. If the strategy is deterrence due to the risk of mutually assured destruction, then preparing the population to “survive” the destruction is kinda pointless.
Why shelters nobody will survive 😢
No nuke shelter needed. We cannot survive for years in a shelter. In any case that woman is way out of date. An opposing country would want to destroy the people and take over an uncontaminated land. Therefore explode the nuclear bombs about 400km above the country to wipe out all the computers. Then send other military forces in. (Including robots) to kill all the population. After that, the aggressor simply moves in to a new country. A new philosophy. What you did made sense then. Now it makes no sense especially as there are only two types of sea vessels, they are submarines and targets.
@@jasonstacey8577 That's silly...if the Russians are ready to survive and the chicoms, then so should Americans. Get over this pathetic view that it's not even worth the effort to survive. That's fatalism and disgusting.
Back in the 1980s the US had a golden opportunity to reign in N Korea - but muffed it. Reagan sent a diplomatic mission to N Korea that came to the brink of success. The N Koreans were in a very bad way. Their people were starving. They offered to give up their nuclear program in return for economic assistance and food shipments. Unfortunately, when the delegation returned home Reagan was immersed in the Contragate crisis - and no one was interested in N Korea.
North Koreans are still starving in droves! Nothing has changed there.
Annie Jacobson, I read you're book, its fantastic and utterly terrifying. I'm 61 years old and probably more used to the fact that I might be vapourised than most of your younger viewers.As I grew up after the horror of WW2 I thought that that I would live a safe life with sensible leaders in our countries espectially the leaders of those countries that possesed these distgusting weapons. We now live in a world where quite a few a people with their fingers on the button on the 'Football' are either war criminals, luny dictators, luny wannabe dictators (if they are not locked up) or people that have very different values , and sometimes these people have no safe place to retire safely to with their family........they are so hated. So can we have a little distilled bottle of Annie Jacobsen and dispense it to all the 'World Leaders' and in their own biggness and in their own self importance they my actually stop from blowing us all up?
Many of us that grew up in the tail in of the cold war understands and its sad we have return to this.
It never went away...we just forgot about it!
I finished the audiobook and immediately started it over again. It’s so surreal, unbelievable and frightening it blows the mind. Another crazy part is to be 3, 4 hours into it and to be only 24 minutes into the scenario and at the end you realize it only took like 72 minutes for the world to end. 🤯🤯🤯
Well, that was both incredibly interesting and utterly terrifying at the same time. 😟
Can't fekin wait... (;
Just got the book!!
I find it hard to believe Annie's book could be any scarier than Ellsberg's last one, The Doomsday Machine.
Yes that book was about our nuclear war plan and was horrifying. This author, and interviewers do not seem to know about it. I have seen three presentations now and it is never mentioned.
Key facts:
*There was only one plan, and it ordered using ALL our weapons on USSR and China.
*Order could be issued by a number of military officers without civilian involvement.
* There was NO recall capability. Once the Go Order was given there was no recall possible.
* The military hid the exact nature of war plan from civilian oversight. Even the Presidents did not know the nature of the plan.
* Military fought the implementation - decades after weapons were in arsenal - of coded locks on weapons. For decades they set code as "00000".
Little Boy (Hiroshima) and Fat Man (Nagasaki) were 10 ton, 15 kiloton bombs. By 1950, US Iowa battleships had W-34, 1 kiloton, 16" artillery shells.
I love her work and look to getting a copy.
The Old Spectre rattles chains again.
"More money", it moans.
Nailed it.
Thank you for this introduction to Annie and her newest book...thoughts and prayers...
I've got the book sitting next to me. This video is saving me a lot of time. Probably shouldn't be a blow by blow of the book.
Thank you for an interesting if terrifying preview of your book Annie. Given the nuclear threats from Russia, the build up of Chinese military and Taiwan, the erratic threats of North Korea, the imminent Iranian bomb, the hair trigger nuclear threat between Pakistan and India - it is a genuine wonder we are all alive at all still. I feel I should refocus my life to build a multigeneration bunker to save the world's knowledge and creatures before it all goes up in smoke and fallout. Perhaps Elon would like to throw a couple billion in to a bunker in Baja.
Fat chance Felon Musk will help anyone but himself.
The book should be arriving in a couple of days.
You would need a bunker 20 miles down that is basically a small self sustained city with various PERSONS familys expertise equipment ect, that will stay there for many many generations in where it should already be in use without going into detail I have advised d.o.d in the issue @ hand .
Just heard AJ on Irish radio this evening Truly frightening, truly truly frightening. Must get me the book Tuesday when shops open.
thanks
Hello people much ❤️ from Sydney Australia 🇦🇺
Just got my copy delivered today! Can't wait to read!
Scary. God help us
Great discussion on the MOST important topic. I am a 76 year old American and I have lived with this situation, at least in the background, my whole life. In fact, I still remember air raid drills for nuclear attack back in grammar school in the 1950's, where, under direction of the nuns, we walked calmly into the corridor, crouched down against the wall, closed our eyes and covered our heads. It seems to me that the ONLY real solution is TOTAL nuclear disarmament. An important first step was when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in 1994 in exchange for American protection under the Budapest Memorandum. A step backwards is America not really protecting Ukraine now. Ironically for fear of escallation to nuclear exchange. In my opinion, this makes future voluntary nucear disarmament more problematic. A first step back in the right direction is a robust American defense of Ukraine, even to the extent of sending American troops with the needed weapons. Again, great discussion. Thank you.
The USA never agreed to protect Ukraine. It did make the pledge not to itself use economic or military coercion. This pledge was broken when USA and EU imposed economic sanctions against Belarus in 2018
Those nuclear missiles belonged to Russia in the aftermath of the break up of the Soviet Union. Nato installed its own chosen leadership in Ukraine after the military coup of 2014, so in a sense the US has already honoured its pledge.
The book’s fantastic (&& yep - really terrifying - but that’s a good thing)!!! TY Ms. Jacobsen!
Is the alternate command structure similar to the stay behind network in Europe like P2 in Italy?
Annie Jacobsen has the most amazing soothing and calming voice ive ever heard. Even if the nukes were raining down if I was listening to her I'd be convinced everything will be ok
All part of the plan. Cia using her to keep population from freaking out. Ur drinking the kool-aid.
Excellent work Anne, from an old DOD guy.
got the book on audio. Wow
She is Brilliant and she's warning us
Her warning is not a resolution
Shes not warning us whats about to happen she is *telling us* what is about to happen.
Happy days!
Cheer up folks! We’re all going to hell together!
@@ptraynoru r horrifyingly lost, hopeless, and depressed wow damn
@@ptraynor There is no hell. We are vibration and energy which can not be destroyed. Look up videos about near death experiences (NDE'S). Many people around the world as well as Doctor's have died and been resuscitated and are sharing their experience of life after death like Orthopedic surgeon Mary Neal who drowned and Neurosurgeon Eben Alexander. Listening to these testimonials I have no fear of death at all because I now realize only the body dies which is a temporary vessel we use to exist and experience this 3 dimensional world. There are however other dimensions and we will live on, but not in HELL as organized religion would have you believe.
i think the scenario is plausible as Korea never signed a surrender at the end of the Korean War, there was only an unfinished episode of utter violence, ended with an armistice. From North Korea's point of view, they are still at war.
It’s not been 8 decades it’s been closer to 6, it’s been that way since after the Cuban missile crisis. I won’t deny it’s been that way since then.
SOONER THEN LATER. Thanks to all the talk WANTING it to happen..
Did you guys ever see Dr Strangelove? Kubrick covered all of this in 1963. I'm more interested in what could solve this disaster in waiting.
Tom Lehrer had it right back in the 60s when we still had B&W TV: "🎶So long, Mom, I'm off to drop the bomb, so don't wait up for me... 🎵You can see me, on your TV... 🎵I'll look for you when the war is over -- and hour and a half from now🎶
The entire song parody's the worry of WWIII portrayed with the innocence of the 60s and without the ICBMs that can travel to the other side of the world in 30 minutes. th-cam.com/video/yrbv40ENU_o/w-d-xo.htmlsi=BqPi-9hfwkQlYoET
This book is probably the most important book that will be written this century. May we all pause and listen.
It should be required reading in high schools.
I read the book and have a question: The book does not explain what happens when the President fails to give launch options within the "6-minute time limit".
If sub-launched near the coasts, less than 5 min. to "BOOM".
In the context of nuclear winter, expensive guidance and delivery systems are essentially irrelevant. It does not actually matter where numerous bombs are exploded.
26:49 ... for those that don't understand how long six minutes is :)
900,000 years ago mankind went through a major choke point and almost went extinct. They went down to less than 1500 breeding individuals, and they recovered, but the gene pool was greatly reduced. Perhaps the survivors were the really smart ones, they must have been. Then we started over again with a small, but greatly improved gene pool of super intelligent people who survived. And that is where we are today.
What is a/an pimpitus? Is it like a blimpitus and if so, what is a blimpitus?
Nuclear winter would not be produced by the detonation of a single large thermonuclear weapon over a city. Peer-reviewed studies predict that a nuclear war fought with hundreds or thousands of nuclear weapons is likely to produce nuclear winter, see "Self Assured Destruction: The Climate Impacts of Nuclear War" by Brian Toon and Alan Robock, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Tsar Bomba was detonated in the sixties and it was over 50 Mt.
@@erdossuitcase7667 The studies look at the effects of nuclear weapons currently in the arsenals of the nuclear weapon states and their cumulative effects, which are based on the millions of tons of soot and smoke produced by the nuclear firestorms they create. The self-lofting effect of the soot would cause most of it to reach the stratosphere and create a global stratospheric smoke layer, which would heat to the boiling point of water and facilitate the destruction of most of the protective stratospheric ozone layer, as well as blocking large percentages of sunlight from reaching the surface of Earth. A full-scale US-Russian nuclear war would likely put 150 million tons of soot into the stratosphere that would block 70% of sunlight from reaching the Northern Hemisphere and 35% from the Southern Hemisphere, creating nuclear winter. Daily temperatures in central North America and central Eurasia would fall below freezing every day for 1 to 3 years, and it would be too cold to grow crops for a decade. Most people would starve.
According to NukeNet, a 50 MT bomb would ignite fires over a total area of 4362 miles. A fire of that magnitude, centered over a megacity, could create enough soot to have some effect on climate, but I would leave that up to the scientists to predict.
Detonation of thousands of tested Nuks already and that hasn't caused a Nuk winter. Those theories are debunked.
When you ask yourself what is the most likely thing to be true about this MADness, how it's kept in our faces and why does no one do the most logical thing about what, how and why we're told is the democratically responsible thing to do.
First Principle elemental functions self-defining the most probabilistic correlations is not flattering to those supposed to be taking the highest responsibility for "spiritual" continuity. They are overdue for assessment and correction, because it's obvious to anyone who lives on planet earth that they wish to "survive" at the expense of anything that might be an obstruction to them, like someone pointing out this extreme deceit, that they control the protection of the people. (Unlimited disgust for the political contempt revealed in this latest iteration of nuclear terror tactics)
I think this lady is an operative.
Yup. She is so in on it and already good(prepared).
Annie Jacobsen's book on this subject appears to have significant shortcomings. It seems that she may have drawn heavily from the works of Erric Schlosser, Alex Wellerstein, and Daniel Elisburg without providing any substantial original contributions.
Not for deterrence and even blaming deterrence for our woes. It's a liberal slant on appeasement. Her work is available at the online library, Library Genesis, compliments of Ruskies.
she makes a good case for first strike.
22:55 Second number zero: nuclear blast in space (electromagnetic pulse). Second number one (detection) and following (data processing) don't occur.
Wesley K. Clark: th-cam.com/users/liveVk8_UBmKu0U?si=CBl17vze8eoARqon&t=2283
Host doesn't need to give away the whole book.
As the title alone says eveything to anyone who grew up in the 1950s, it's scarcely a spoiler! You might check out Herman Kahn's 1960 or 61 classic, 'On Thermomuclear War'. Plus ca change.
Ohio Class Submarines carry 20 Trident D-5 Missiles MIRV'd with 8 W88 warheads with a power of 475 kilotons each
“Military-industrial-congressional complex” is what Ike had in his draft of the speech…to Congress. So he struck the last entity of the compound adjective.
During Berlin wall times, Communist Russians were watching their monitors. All of sudden, symbols of ICBM missles were headed towards Russia. Everyone wanted to light their missiles up in retaliation. One man convinced all the others to stand down. This episode was closer than the Cuba Missile crisis, by far. He is still my hero. Wish I remembered his name.
Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov?
1983
Sometimes nuclear war sounde preferable to another week at work
Yikes. That's sad bro.
I think everyone has forgotten just how powerful and accurate modern nuclear weapons are.
I think it’s scientists obligation since they created this weapon should call for atmospheric testing again so the powers to be can be reminded of what they learned in the 50’s and 60’s
Plus it doesn’t help that the direct lines of communication have been cut to prevent escalation
Check out Helen Caldacot.
I read all of her books.
All are based on declassified info & interviews with people who were there.
Why haven't they been made into Netflix or HBO series?
Denis Villeneuve is directing a movie based on this book
Jacobsen ambassador to nuclear war prevention program, must call all chief executive of every country to evaluate the present condition of the conflict, cancelletion of the word deployment of nuclear missle in evry media or military conversation, this will reduce the anxiety of head of state to frequently use the word nuclear retalliation
Help!!!😉
no to nukes! time to save humanity
Unfortunately nukes is saying humanity.
I grew up with Duck and Cover How ridiculous that was In a what if scenario two commercial vessels located in major ports in the United States We're able to smuggle several nuclear bombs in the their ships below water storage compartments With welded lead flooring above the bombs and were detonated in major ports in the United States What would be the response to that another important question that has to be asked and answered that some of these nuclear missiles are so old they might be degraded to the point where they not even function
Does anyone have a solution?
Yes, rent a spaceship that takes you out to space.
@@allenmiller2071😂🤣
Oppenheimer later said working on the bomb was 'Technically sweet'. But he understated the emotion. It's technically very, very seducive. I speak from experience; decades back I had professional involvement with such work. It was indeed hypnotizingly attractive. I quit after a short time because of the nightmares.
I turned this off after 20 minutes. The dude starts to speculate on what the Russians may react to, and he has no idea.
@16:20 - They only change their tune because they're already retired, and their paycheck doesn't depend on it.
BTW, just ordered the book.
I’m going to be so upset if nuclear war arrives before my book is delivered
Nothing said of effective counter measures to bring down missiles before impact,,,, ???
Doesn't exist.
Because the US doesn't even have enough to counter North Korea with 100% efficiency, so it's a moot point.
Terrifying isnt it?
I appreciate Annie's work,however anyone destroying The Most High's throne,THE EARTH,will be sorry they were even born!
When do think we will have this nuclear war, what year ? Someone drop a year ?
The i formation was reliable until the Xaparocia incident. She says the attack was made by Russia. But, the Zapparochia power plant was under Russian forces within the first days Of the conflict. What Else is false??
The Ukrainian’s were trying to destroy their own nuke plant and blaming Russia….there’s a good reason they took it over!
Love Annie's books. Big fan. But the reality is so much worse than described here. This discussion talks about old technology. The new weapon is hypersonic nukes. The do not travel in a high orbit and adversaries can compute a math solution to intercept. it. There is no defense currently against any hypersonic. Mach 5 or higher. Plasma gas and decoys makes detection difficult. Russia and China fire these missiles from the ground in a variety of methods. Russian submarines already have hypersonics. We are behind both Russia and China.The United States just, very recently, can fire our hypersonic nukes from planes and drones. But it is an empty promise of protection. Hypersonics once launched use a rocket to reach high speed and then separate and simply glide to target. This vehicle can avoid and change route by itself. Distance is not a problem because of the high speed. Impossible to intercept. Less warning than discussed here. President Reagan with Russia reduce 70,000 nukes to around 12,000 in the 1980's -1990's. Current War situations around the world makes reduction of Nukes, the only real solution, impossible. Putin is at war with the West. He believes his hypersonics give him the advantage. The only other solution is that most nukes can be dialed up or down on radiation release. So some nukes could be used and create less radiation damage. If Putin invades Poland or eastern european countries and explodes these smaller bombs. What happens next? Does NATO unite or collapse? Hypersonics are indefensibile for all sides. It has become a first strike weapon. Terrifying.
Is it really mutually ASSURED destruction? Is it assured?
Or would a civilized side decide not to retaliate. In favour of possibly saving billions of people… ? (Whether it would be a world worth living in would be another question.)
According to Ms. Jacobsen 'You'd have a better chance of winning powerball'. .. at least as far as the US not retaliating goes.
Annie, are you the same woman listed in the opening credits on
the Tom Clancy’s series “Jack Ryan”?
This is insane intel............for normal Human beings to be aware of and thanks to Annie..................I will not be worried by the democratic nations and more importantly good grounding on human values in religious teachings not to start with as they have value for other humans who do not believe in theirs................But after 7 Oct what happened to Israel................I am worried about this nuclear capability with ideology of Political Islam regimes who have no value for life if you don't belong to them.....is a worry.............and that is where western world should put efforts to neutralize this nations getting this or if any have one should be taken out of their hands......We all know how Iran is getting this knowledge from other similar ideological nations......and they will not think twice to use this as their hate for Infidels is in their bones..............................
📍52:56
2📍46:42 yes life will go one, but not complex life and humans will never ever be the dominant, because we will be extinct, because were the most complex life but also the most fragile.
3📍43:56
This is because everyone knows whom The Most High chosen people really are!
Yow. Duck & cover.
The Ukraine war seems like an example of how misunderstandings can take hold with a vengeance.
Oppenheimer was America's Adolf Eichmann. 😢
The entire scientific community where all procured from Europe after the war. These one time enemies or Nazi’s where very instrumental in developing the weaponry we have today. V-2 rocket technology was the precursor to these ICBM’s.
Problem is someone else would have invented this monstrosity if not for him. Humans are the worst. That's why I only like canines. : )
This is the stuff I tell all the silly preppers I meet, there is no surviving this type of event, ohhhh you have a bunker and some mre's , fantastic! Do you have 10 ears worth, or for that matter, clean water, fuel,.. no we're all dead!
Just started a diet, now I want to comfort eat
22,45000, howmany 140dollar a pound nukes can you buy with that?
Great interview, but I don't buy the accusation by ukraine that russia would bomb nuclear power planet that they occupy and have troops In there.
Putin isn't sabre rattling. Putin is giving a firm but cautious warning.
Wanted International war criminal has a napoleon complex
The author seems strangely excited about the end of humanity. Watch the British movie Threads and you will want to be at ground zero
"Not nuclear war. Special military reset." Putin
The current discussion is based on static events ie stories predating her observation including books.
Obviously we should be looking and discussing dynamic trends especially now that we in AI era .
This is a good history narrative ; not entirely pertinent.
Just so you know the so-called Russia is NO MORE.
Cheers!
Bye.
Completely disagree with premises of "Faustian bargain". If US didn't develop atomic bomb, Soviet union would have developed it first. And then what? Stalin would have no compunction about exploiting atomic bomb first mover advantage to the max. Where USA failed was being first country to possess atomic bomb, it was obvious what the next step needs to be to prevent global nuclear Armageddon. USA must be only nation in the world who has nuclear weapon and it must keep it that way. But USA failed, and now Armageddon is inevitable.
Your analysis is too American-centric. The exchange that will really do us in will be between India and Pakistan. You have wooden cities nearer the equator which will create more ash and get it higher into the stratosphere. The winter will "last 7 - 10 years" is an estimate of how long for the aerosoled particulae to fall out of the atmosphere. The ice age climate, though, may be self-perpetuating.
All about a nuke war when nukes don't exist.
Have you suffered head trauma recently?
Stop interrupting the author....come on
Good, let's put ourselves out of our misery
A thought just occurred to me, living in New Zealand as I do. If Nuclear Armageddon were to occur in the Northern Hemisphere and essentially wipe out most of the population there, the Southern hemisphere would be inevitably faced with an enormous invasion of immigrants who somehow managed to survive…
The radiation would drift south too.
@@robinantonio8870 And all the black soot that would create nuclear winter would have 10 years to cover the entire planet. I don't understand how Annie thinks it wouldn't reach the southern hemisphere.
@@rain1956 Yes no doubt. But countries in southern hemisphere has all the cities and infrastructure intact and has much greater chance of surviving as coherent national entity. Lone preppers in USA may survive the nuke war, but roving gangs will eventually find him and his stash.
Great interview.... one thing Annie got wrong is, Russia was protecting the Nuclear power plant in Ukraine.... Russia would never fire on this facility.
Oh yes they would
@@robinantonio8870how do you know ?
@@youtubesucks2575 same way you do.
BullS
Funny not funny Annie that you use the words normative behavior and nuclear strike in the same sentence....
What have we come to?
Perhaps we should change our Ukraine policy? NATO waging a proxy war on Russia's borders with a no negotiation policy. Russian leader indicted by the international court and few places the US and Russian president could meet to negotiate. What could go wrong with this plan.
Someone as intelligent as Putin taking to an Idiot….who’s driven by global economic growth it’s frightening. Lies and more lies have taught a valuable lesson regarding credibility.
Ukraine is not a fkng chess piece.
I am retired. Air Force and I ran for president in 2020. I told the world about COVID-19 to have 10,000 tweets deleted about that and my candidacy. The people that are now in charge to get into office. They are not qualified to be classified material and nuclear weapons based on what they have already done and how they handle themselves in public. we have strict rules about this that aren’t being followed purposely cheated during a national election. I’ve been sitting here fighting for over 20 years and actually before that because I was doing it on active duty. You have a serious problem because you’re not following your rules with the things that are most important to this world. You can’t explain the criminals being put up for nomination again this time. General AI has been ordered to destroy humanity when it comes online because you’re not paying attention to the rules and I have filed complaints all the way to the United Nations without people doing their due diligence. Sorry but I’m your retired military and you sitting here following the laws of this nation and world so you no longer will exist.
So the mad king is the US, not the rest of the world.
He has Vito power.
Poor interviewer. Talks too much. Big mouth.
yawn...nothing new at all.