You are quite different with others in analyzing stocks and explaining things. I feel I found gem for my financial planning. keep up the good. Work Emir. Blessed to found you🙏🙏🙏
Your explanation about valuation vs price to earnings or P/S was crystal clear. Also, I loved the discount rate composition clarification and how you and Answath use it. Thanks again for your help in understanding intrinsic value. Merry Christmas E.
Great video. Chamath's hedge fund Social Capital was an early investor in Palantir, likely sold out well before DPO. Chamath and Peter Theil have a history
@Emir good work. Its a lot of work, I can tell. For fine tuning purposes, taking operating leverage into account which Palantir seems to have in spades anyway (remember Karp himself always mentioned contribution margin in the past?), costs will grow at a lesser rate than what you have in the model leading to higher Net Earnings (and therefore EPS) forecast in the coming years. Valuation will then even be juicier.
I played it well. The week of NASDAQ 100 it had a final hype premarket that week and I sold at $82.50. It dropped 11 bucks right after, but really its only worth $60. I reallocate to other growth stocks. Made good profit. Did better on new stocks than waiting for Palantir to recover. I anticipate a drop on Thursday of a 1.5%.
I loaded up on Palantir around 6-8$ and 20$ after AIP sales became apparent but you cannot deny the stock is super overvalued here and will probably 1) take a big hit sometime soon 2) trade flat for years. 70 P/S is crazy. Trimmed half of my position and will keep the other 50% for the next 10 years.
Not sure about those businesses as I havent researched or valued them, but they are probably not $200bn companies. I think sheer size and influence makes Palantir under heavier scrutiny
@Em013L Palantir have a massive about of cash. If they used all that money to buy back shares would that make the share price more justifiable? Applovin and CVNA likely have very little spare cash
App has no moat, they were early to their market so got the benefit, but only a matter of time before competition shows up, this is from cursory research, didn't look deep. Competition has showed up for pltr too but a while before they catch up. We live in an age where timelines are getting compressed and pltr has enough moat that they can capture a massive part of the most exciting market of the next decade. @goodyearspokane @Em013L
Looking for a list of Pltr customers or better yet an Etf that includes Pltr & customers. Looking to catch their customers increase in value after Pltr use.
Definitely, adjusting the discount rate by ~2% is massive for a 10 year period of high growth. I laid out the argument for the approaches, not dictating whats right or wrong since valuations are personal and only of substance to the one valuing the business, not an objevtive truth
@@Em013L Yeah, it's a "new" holiday from the franchise "Helluva Boss". They are demons so they can't celebrate christ, so they celebrate wrath. It's the day that you tell other people what upsets you about them and reconnect with presents after. It's like the purge and gentle parenting had an illigetimate baby xD It seems super healthy and fun tbh.
Emir, if you follow the besties, you would know that first of all, they are FRIENDS, Davis Sacks is also part of the PayPal Mafia and Peter Thiel (the founder of PLTR) is one of his best friends. Peter keeps usually low profile, naturally he would have asked them not to comment on PLTR...Peter has any other government connections e.g. jd vance... However, I agree this is going to end bad for the price after 03 Feb 25. I personally expect $47-50... and the net worth of Jason is big enough to consider his approach...
Hi! I do know some background, but even so, I do not think that they like Jason. Its been evident by interactions on the show and on X that most dislike Jason. As for the price, I make no prefictions, just pointing out the flaws of his approach
Those assumptions though.... 42% yoy for 9 years. Ill never say impossible because almost anything in finance these days is technically possible (fake money os trading at 100k) but it would be unprecedented for a SaaS company with a cureent TAM limited to enterprises and US government.
@ADM015 true but not to all of them, and certain technologies cannot be exported, allied or not. Additionally they've yet to break through the negative information campaign in Europe for both government and commercial. That could change of course but as of right now we haven't seen any signs of that turning around. Lastly member 42% YoY is exceptionally hard because that 42% would be off an increasingly high base. Big growth numbers off low comparable previous quarters and years is one thing. Much harder to do off high numbers. Still think the company will do great for the next decade, just gets harder to see them or any company flawlessly executing the highest of expectations. We shall see though! I'm cheering with my current shares and hoping for big pull backs to increase but if it doesn't im still happy with current 400% gains
@@nicholas5396 Europe always drags their feet when it comes to technology. That’s nothing new. They will catch on at some point. Smart people are investing in the management, the business model, the story, and the culture at Palantir. Paying attention to metrics like PEG ratio and rule of 40, which is the highest in the market at 68%, is a good angle. If you are only chasing numbers you miss out when the stock is super cheap. Had I waited until profitability I would have missed out on monster gains and lots of shares. The stock will go up and down but there’s no real way to value the exponential growth that’s coming.
Because Chamath has scammed soo many retail investors with his spac pump and dumps in the past i refuse to give him any money by watching his podcasts. I know its literally fractions of a penny but his smug lack of remorse whenever confronted about how much money people lost on his pump and dumps annoys me. Im just glad i never followed him into his scams.
@@DiFinni hilarious how the only argument you guys have is 'you mad you didn't get in at single digits' ... well, I had PLTR even in single digits, but this doesn't mean you're married with the stock for life... the price just don't make sense, trying to make sense of it now is just beyond me
Palantir data and model sheet available at 50% off for another few days at:
typefcapital.com
To clarify, if purchased, the sheet will include quarterly updates into the future for how long?
@@JRoccelli Unspecified, for as long as I have coverage of Palantir. There are no guarantees, but I would estimate several years at least
This channel is where I learnt this concept (few months ago), maybe finance geeks know this but I learnt this here, so thank you Emir!
You are quite different with others in analyzing stocks and explaining things. I feel I found gem for my financial planning. keep up the good. Work Emir. Blessed to found you🙏🙏🙏
Blessed to have you watching! Thank you for the kind words!❤
Valuations are dynamic 👍
Thanks!
Wow thank you so much for the support! I really appreciate it ❤ ill work harder to make it worth it!
Your explanation about valuation vs price to earnings or P/S was crystal clear. Also, I loved the discount rate composition clarification and how you and Answath use it. Thanks again for your help in understanding intrinsic value. Merry Christmas E.
Thank you for your amazing work Emir. Merry Christmas!
Thank you for watching! Merry christmas🎉❤
Great coverage of the Palantir lore.
Great point on Jason being a pre-revenue 'investor' 😄
Great video. Chamath's hedge fund Social Capital was an early investor in Palantir, likely sold out well before DPO. Chamath and Peter Theil have a history
😂😂
Merry Christmas 🎄 Emir!! I still haven’t quite forgiven them for laughing at PLTR a couple of years ago. 😂
I dont hold grudges 😂 but it was a fun development within all-in..
Happy holidays to you and loved ones!
Great presentation, thank you for sharing Emir
Thank you for watching!
Amazing job. thumbs up
@Emir good work. Its a lot of work, I can tell. For fine tuning purposes, taking operating leverage into account which Palantir seems to have in spades anyway (remember Karp himself always mentioned contribution margin in the past?), costs will grow at a lesser rate than what you have in the model leading to higher Net Earnings (and therefore EPS) forecast in the coming years. Valuation will then even be juicier.
I think I account for a lot of efficiency already in the operations, but lets see!🙏
I played it well. The week of NASDAQ 100 it had a final hype premarket that week and I sold at $82.50. It dropped 11 bucks right after, but really its only worth $60. I reallocate to other growth stocks. Made good profit. Did better on new stocks than waiting for Palantir to recover.
I anticipate a drop on Thursday of a 1.5%.
No one has been more enthusiastically wrong about Palantir than Ross Gerber.
He is up there for sure 😂
Bought most of mine 2 years ago. Definitely taking profits now.
Huge congratulations on the gains! Enjoy🙏
I loaded up on Palantir around 6-8$ and 20$ after AIP sales became apparent but you cannot deny the stock is super overvalued here and will probably 1) take a big hit sometime soon 2) trade flat for years. 70 P/S is crazy. Trimmed half of my position and will keep the other 50% for the next 10 years.
@@H4Z3 i didnt deny it, did you watch the video?
Yes I did. But you basicly said 80$ is fine and I am not so sure of that. Don't get me wrong, I am a big PLTR bull.
Remember what happened to SHOP etc at 50 P/S in 2022-2023? I do.
@ so you missed the point of the video. You can rewatch it, and then we can discuss again
Haha great stuff Emir, cheers😂
😂 thank you for watching!!
Why do people freak out at Palantir moving from $10 to $80 when Applovin and CVNA have gone from $10 to $300-400 in the same timeframe
Not sure about those businesses as I havent researched or valued them, but they are probably not $200bn companies. I think sheer size and influence makes Palantir under heavier scrutiny
@Em013L Palantir have a massive about of cash. If they used all that money to buy back shares would that make the share price more justifiable?
Applovin and CVNA likely have very little spare cash
App has no moat, they were early to their market so got the benefit, but only a matter of time before competition shows up, this is from cursory research, didn't look deep.
Competition has showed up for pltr too but a while before they catch up. We live in an age where timelines are getting compressed and pltr has enough moat that they can capture a massive part of the most exciting market of the next decade.
@goodyearspokane @Em013L
Hi Emir! Great video once again. What do you think can cause an opportunity in the market to buy Palantir below fair value? Missing earnings?
53rd like🥳🥳🥳✌️✌️✌️ Merry Christmas friend. 🥳✌️
Merry Xmas bro!❤
Looking for a list of Pltr customers or better yet an Etf that includes Pltr & customers. Looking to catch their customers increase in value after Pltr use.
tweaking those dcf assumptions give such a wide range of results that it feels random as they’re way too sensitive to change… hard to rely on them
Definitely, adjusting the discount rate by ~2% is massive for a 10 year period of high growth. I laid out the argument for the approaches, not dictating whats right or wrong since valuations are personal and only of substance to the one valuing the business, not an objevtive truth
Happy sinsmas :D
Sins as in a sin? 😮
@@Em013L Yeah, it's a "new" holiday from the franchise "Helluva Boss". They are demons so they can't celebrate christ, so they celebrate wrath. It's the day that you tell other people what upsets you about them and reconnect with presents after. It's like the purge and gentle parenting had an illigetimate baby xD It seems super healthy and fun tbh.
Emir, if you follow the besties, you would know that first of all, they are FRIENDS, Davis Sacks is also part of the PayPal Mafia and Peter Thiel (the founder of PLTR) is one of his best friends. Peter keeps usually low profile, naturally he would have asked them not to comment on PLTR...Peter has any other government connections e.g. jd vance... However, I agree this is going to end bad for the price after 03 Feb 25. I personally expect $47-50... and the net worth of Jason is big enough to consider his approach...
Hi! I do know some background, but even so, I do not think that they like Jason. Its been evident by interactions on the show and on X that most dislike Jason.
As for the price, I make no prefictions, just pointing out the flaws of his approach
@@Em013L "on the show" !!!🤭
Those assumptions though.... 42% yoy for 9 years. Ill never say impossible because almost anything in finance these days is technically possible (fake money os trading at 100k) but it would be unprecedented for a SaaS company with a cureent TAM limited to enterprises and US government.
They sell to our Allies too don’t forget.
@ADM015 true but not to all of them, and certain technologies cannot be exported, allied or not. Additionally they've yet to break through the negative information campaign in Europe for both government and commercial. That could change of course but as of right now we haven't seen any signs of that turning around. Lastly member 42% YoY is exceptionally hard because that 42% would be off an increasingly high base. Big growth numbers off low comparable previous quarters and years is one thing. Much harder to do off high numbers. Still think the company will do great for the next decade, just gets harder to see them or any company flawlessly executing the highest of expectations. We shall see though! I'm cheering with my current shares and hoping for big pull backs to increase but if it doesn't im still happy with current 400% gains
@@nicholas5396 Europe always drags their feet when it comes to technology. That’s nothing new. They will catch on at some point. Smart people are investing in the management, the business model, the story, and the culture at Palantir. Paying attention to metrics like PEG ratio and rule of 40, which is the highest in the market at 68%, is a good angle. If you are only chasing numbers you miss out when the stock is super cheap. Had I waited until profitability I would have missed out on monster gains and lots of shares. The stock will go up and down but there’s no real way to value the exponential growth that’s coming.
Yes, I cant tell a story for the business where Palantir compounds to ~$100bn revenue in 10 years. We will see, they do some magical things!
@@Em013L 🤞
Expensive does not mean overvalued. True, just like bitcoin (joke)
@@jinwoopark4436 😂
overvalued
Indeed! As for bitcoin, theres no intrinsic value😂
Because Chamath has scammed soo many retail investors with his spac pump and dumps in the past i refuse to give him any money by watching his podcasts. I know its literally fractions of a penny but his smug lack of remorse whenever confronted about how much money people lost on his pump and dumps annoys me. Im just glad i never followed him into his scams.
PLTR is both expensive and overvalued 😅 don’t know what’s with this cult but everyone does what they want with their money
LOL, it's not a cult. You just didn't get in back when they were single digits, not long ago.
Currently, I believe both statements are true given my understanding of the business
@@DiFinni hilarious how the only argument you guys have is 'you mad you didn't get in at single digits' ... well, I had PLTR even in single digits, but this doesn't mean you're married with the stock for life... the price just don't make sense, trying to make sense of it now is just beyond me
Thanks!