The Odds of Life and Intelligence
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2024
- If we re-ran Earth's clock, would life arise again? Would another civilization eventually evolve? Astrobiology is faced with trying to contextualize our place in the Universe using just a single data point. But even a single data point contains information. The key to unlocking it is a careful understanding of the selection biases at play and intricacies of Bayesian statistics. Today, we're thrilled to present to you our explainer video of a new research paper led by Prof David Kipping that provides a direct quantification of the odds of life and intelligence on Earth-like worlds, based on our own chronology. Presented & Written by Prof. David Kipping.
This video is based on research conducted at the Cool Worlds Lab at Columbia University, New York. You can now support our research program directly here: www.coolworldslab.com/support
Previous episodes to catch up on:
► "Watching the End of the World": • Watching the End of th...
► "Why We Could Be Alone": • Why we might be alone ...
References:
► Kipping, D. 2020, "An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Life’s Early Start and Our Late Arrival", PNAS: www.pnas.org/content/early/20...
► Spiegel, D. & Turner, E., 2011, "Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life's early emergence on Earth", PNAS 109, 395 arxiv.org/abs/1107.3835
► Carter, B. 2007, "Five or six step scenario for evolution?", Int. J. Astrobiology 7, 177 : arxiv.org/abs/0711.1985
► O'Malley-James, J. et al. 2013, "Swansong biospheres: refuges for life and novel microbial biospheres on terrestrial planets near the end of their habitable lifetimes" Int. J. Astrobiology 12, 99: arxiv.org/abs/1210.5721
► Bell, E. et al., 2015, "Potentially biogenic carbon preserved in a 4.1 billion-year-old zircon", PNAS 112, 14518: www.pnas.org/content/112/47/1...
► Smith, H. & Szathmáry, E. 1995, "The Major Transitions in Evolution", Oxford, England: Oxford University Press
► Schopf, W. et al., 2018, "SIMS analyses of the oldest known assemblage of microfossils document their taxon-correlated carbon isotope compositions", PNAS 115, 53: www.pnas.org/content/115/1/53
Video materials & graphics used:
► Berkeley Lab/Sloan Sky Digital Survey: • A Flight Through the U...
► Life Beyond by melodysheep: • LIFE BEYOND: Chapter ...
► K2-18b animation by ESA/Hubble, M. Kornmesser: www.spacetelescope.org/videos...
► Earth 4k by NASA/ESA/M.Kornmesser: www.eso.org/public/videos/ear...
► Galaxy spinning animation by Huy Trường Nguyễn: • Galaxy Spinning
► Earth timelapse from NASA DSCOVR EPIC: epic.gsfc.nasa.gov
► Animation of GJ1214b by ESO/L. Calçada: www.eso.org/public/videos/eso...
► Roulette table by steveh552: • Roulette slow motion
► Sky timelapse by National Geographic: • Time-Lapse: Lose Yours...
► Milky Way animation by Stefan Payne-Wardenaar: vimeo.com/330625918
► Outro by Carl Sagan from his book Pale Blue Dot
► Thumbnail image licensed through StockFresh.com, image #8872987 by RAStudio
Movies/TV scenes used:
► Agora (2009)/Focus Features
► The Martian (2015)/20th Century Fox
► Noah (2014)/Paramount Pictures
Music used in chronological order:
► "The Sun is Scheduled to Come Out Tomorrow" ( / the-sun-is-scheduled-t... ) by Chris Zabriskie (chriszabriskie.com/); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
► "Cylinder Five" (chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/) by Chris Zabriskie (chriszabriskie.com/); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
► "Cylinder Two" (chriszabriskie.com/cylinders/) by Chris Zabriskie (chriszabriskie.com/); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
► "Stories About the World that Once Was" by Chris Zabriskie (chriszabriskie.com/neptuneflux/); licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (creativecommons.org/licenses/...)
► "Painted Deserts" by Shimmer, licensed through SoundStripe.com: app.soundstripe.com/songs/9913
And also...
► Columbia University Department of Astronomy: www.astro.columbia.edu
► Cool Worlds Lab website: coolworlds.astro.columbia.edu
Latest Cool Worlds Videos ► bit.ly/NewCoolWorlds
Cool Worlds Research ► bit.ly/CoolWorldsResearch
Cool Worlds Long Form Videos ► bit.ly/CoolWorldsEssays
Guest Videos ► bit.ly/CoolWorldsGuests
SUBSCRIBE here: bit.ly/CoolWorldsSubscribe
THANKS FOR WATCHING!!
#AreWeAlone #Astrobiology #CoolWorlds - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
Thanks so much for watching everyone, make sure to like/share/subscribe if you enjoyed this! This has been a major research effort over the last year and I'm thrilled to finally share it with you. We have so many other exciting projects on the horizon but only so much in the way of research resources to pursue these thrilling ideas. If you want to support our research, you now can through the Columbia Just Giving platform - www.coolworldslab.com/support - thanks for anything you can do to help us unravel the Universe's secrets!
Are the Greys gonna colonize us using GMO bees or black goo such as in the X-Files?
Excellent effort, and a great example of how Bayesian statistics allows to get a lot from a little. I was a bit confused during reading the paper as "T" is overloaded in "Adopted Values for the Observational Data", being simultaneously 4.408 Gy and 5.304 Gy - Perhaps this is down to the web publishing? I'd be interested in knowing how your model would take to followup evidence - Suppose we detect non-intelligent life on some other world a time t2 after its last sterilizing event, what would that imply for the odds of slow versus fast intelligence as a function of t2? What if the detection is of intelligent life?
pure conjecture.. the arrogance of man, and his ability to tell great stories.. hear we go again.. care to play.?
Thank-you, sir.
Can't even put words to my appreciation.
@BLAIR M Schirmer Maybe the Great Spark (great name btw) is not what we think it is...maybe that spark is a low-probability sequential and well timed narrow process within an already existing abiogenesis...what if it had to happen in a very specific order at a very specific time, while of course benefiting from the specifics of an all relatively stable stellar environment....? Life is the template and intelligent life its unlikely and immensely rare by-product. I don't know.
This channel is a gold nugget on TH-cam. Such interesting content.
True
Feeling when you discover this channel must be the same as when we discover life itself in another planet :)
Aye! 🙂
@@bunkerbuster6729 Great video ! Except perhaps were it was alluded to the fact the Bill Nye is a scientist? He just pretends to be one on a children's TV show.
Also check out Isaac Arthur and Event Horizon.
I love how the main host basically turns his peer reviewed papers into layman's terms videos for those of us who either can't access peer reviewed papers or have trouble digesting their dense text. Thanks, to both him and everyone else who helps these videos happen.
Me too
If this guy was my teacher when I was in school I would never of bunked off so much.. what a genius
*would never HAVE bunked. You’re welcome, Grammar Nazi
Smoking weed is important
I can’t even begin to tell you how, first off, fantastic this man is. This is a college professor explaining the universe to you. That in itself is a phenomenal fact. Secondly, he’s doing it on TH-cam, which means one of two things. Either he wants to spread this knowledge to the masses, appreciating the thought of the knowledge itself, or he wants his work and research out in the masses. Either way it’s a fantastic thing. Maybe he just has fun doing it, but I’d like to think otherwise 😁 but the man cites his sources and provides the formulas as well. So remarkable!
Bro also wants AdSense
@@jamieconnor3505 absence
@@jamieconnor3505HAHAHA yes, this is actually the ONLY reason he is doing this🧐
How lucky are we to live in an era when a mind such as David's is but a click away!!!
Let's apply Bayesian statistics to find out.!! :D
Gene Lowe amen
I really shouldn't be here.
He is truly a genius
Unlucky*
The rigorous qualification of most claims in your videos is extremely refreshing. So many arguments in popular media are based on absolutes that this is a remarkable deviation from the vast majority of communication, including science communication. Thank you for the excellent content Dr. Kipping.
Did not expect this video to be so wholesome! 😂 We do have to make many assumptions just to get to any hypothesis, thinking of "human intelligence" as point of comparison when this concept can be something else, intelligence for an alien organism could be something we can't even imagine. But that's a completely different topic. Truly fascinating. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and knowledge with us.
As always David, you do an excellent job in describing a complex subject in the most simplistic terms. I never miss your latest videos. keep up the great work.
Aww your lab assistant is adorable, you must be proud of her ^.^
hehe you can tell, a very warm dad
... she seems to thoroughly enjoy her job. Nice to see.
@I Hate Toy Story 4.....she doesn't care what her dad is...he's her dad....she also doesn't care that he might be dead on to the greatest question of all...she has much more important things to do before bed time such as playing in the back yard with her friends....there are hundreds of things she wants to do tomorrow....but, if she doesn't get them done on time, well that's ok too...because she knows that she has forever to finish them....can you remember that feeling?
HIS KID IS ADORABLE. I AM SO ENVIOUS. I DON'T HAVE ONE. MY EX HAD OUR UNBORN CHILD ABORTED.. BECAUSE "IT IS HER BODY"
@@mgtowrules5702 that's tough man, sorry to hear that. Even if it's her body, you should have a voice in the argument too because the kid is also a part of you. I hope you get to have a healthy child someday that you can raise with all the love in the world
An intelligent approach. We see on Earth that intelligence is rare.
Lmao
And until we destroy superstitious religions, that will never be resolved.
Hehe
@BLAIR M Schirmer In my line of work I met quite a few sociopaths who were brilliant.
You're absolutely correct the parasites that ask for a government handout are the epitome of unintelligent including scientist who look to manipulate the government is he giving them taxpayer money teachers anybody who work for the government is a parasite and is unintelligent a nun creative
16:30 My heart literally melted into the keyboard as I type this
I literally have no head for numbers as I have dyscalculia, but I am so glad that this channel explains physics and stats without being condescending about it. I'm definitely more of a biology minded person since I was a forestry wildlife management major in college, and xenobiology has always been fascinating to me.
I do think there's other life out there, but I don't think we'll ever come in contact with it. It's sad to think about, but I also think it means we should take better care of this bubble we have because when they come across us, we'll probably be long gone, and we should leave behind something to be proud of.
And also cat memes. Leave behind cat memes.
i love and appreciate that this man doesn't talk to his subscribers and viewers like they're uneducated children, his videos are so interesting and they just pull you in like a trance. another wonderful video, great job 👍
He doesn't bother talking to guys in a trance...
This is the first time I've heard such a thoughtful, logical, carefully-argued answer to this question. Next time someone asks what I 'believe' about alien life I'll show them this video. Thank you for your wonderful outreach work.
Even at rare that still would leave billions of planets with life It’s debatable about intelligence since is a whale intelligent? Life is out there like it or not, will we ever meet them who knows the distance is vast, debate all you want we are not alone. We think we understand the universe we don’t know shit, until we really get out there we won’t.
This isn't an answer to the question to whether we are alone or not. We will never know until we make contact there's no evidence yet to either outcome.
@@MF-LXRD There is plenty of evidence, is you are serious enough to look at reliable sources. This might change your opinion, that indeed this planet is being visited from another life form.
He is asked if he believes alien life exists and dodges directly answering yes or no. Did you even watch the video?
@@dennisd7668 His analysis here is based on an Earth like planet around a Sun like star.
These are extremely rare in the rest of the galaxy. Not that they are needed, but a non-totally hostile environment is needed.
For example, nearly 60% of stars are in the core of the galaxy where radiation levels should preclude life. Nearly 85% of stars are red dwarfs where planets in the goldilocks zone should be tidally lock (rare chance of life) and red dwarfs sporadically have huge amounts of solar activity which should remove atmospheres (again, rare chance of life). Nearly 85% of star system in our galaxy have 2 or more stars, again rare chance of life due to planetary orbital instability. There are hundreds more different ways that the galaxy is hostile to life.
The galaxy (and presumably the universe) is deadly to life. Extremely deadly. We just happen to sit out in a calm galactic arm with a calm star, a good orbit for life, and many other factors in our favor.
Based on our knowledge, intelligent life here was an extremely rare fluke. Even a few billion safe stars in our galaxy probably indicates some chances for life, but intelligent life is an entirely different story. The cooling of our planetary core took so long that simple multicellular life only occurred about 1 billion years ago out of the 4+ billion years that Earth has existed.
your scientific rigor is truly under appreciated
Your video re-inspired my imagination and made me think of these more fundamental factors rather than just basing my assumptions for the existence of life on the huge amount of stars out there in the universe. I look forward to reading your paper!
The thing that has always annoyed me Is that everyone! Assumes that life needs the same conditions to exist.
Louis Cypher Yep! We adapted and evolved to our environment, it wasn’t created for us. No such thing as Goldilocks zones or the need for water to exist as if life is common it may mean that other life forms have evolved to withstand much higher/lower temps or are not even carbon based, gas breathing life forms. We only need to look at the bottom of our own oceans for evidence of this! I think this same thing all the time.
@@poobrainsmellypants1 www.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/prose/text/thinkingMeat.html
It's as well hard to think of..
Well, we have 20+ different environments in our solar system. How many lives adapted to any of them? Where are the lives that adapt to the sulphuric oven conditions in Venus? or the freezing CH4 lakes on Titan? What that tells us is that there are very few suitable environments for life and probably only one environment that life can adapt to.
@@sirsia1st the original web.archive.org/web/20190501130711/www.terrybisson.com/theyre-made-out-of-meat-2/
Thank you prof Kipping for trying to explain these super complex ideas in such an entertaining and engaging way
Unfortunately, it is a complete fail when you consider the lifespan of smaller stars than the sun. Yes, it becomes less likely that intelligent life evolves if it takes 80% plus of the habitable period of a planet for intelligence to happen (as with us). However, all of that beautiful Bayesian math goes right out the window if you consider a K type star with a habitable window of. say, 8 or 10 billion years, and it still only takes 4 billion years for intelligence to evolve. Like so many "solutions" to anything, it is easy to come up with a model that is simple, plausible and completely wrong.
@@paulpeterson4216 This is a very important criticism of using such models. But is it not possible to calculate the priors for different types of stars that could support life on different time scales?
There’s nothing complex about being a pessimist.
@@dronesightingsmith3979 Best advice I was given was "always expect the worst, then anything better is always a bonus!" Pessimism has it's uses, but it shouldn't stop us looking for intelligent life elsewhere. At the very least we need to be looking for a new home for the human race, this one is going to be uninhabitable in less than a billion years.
But there is an issue he doesn't make clear: *Drakes Equation does not factor the entire Universe. It factors **_only_** the Milky Way Galaxy. It also factors **_out all life except_** intelligent communicative civilizations.*
This not absolutely knowing is fascinating. How much we just don’t know boggles the brain .
Can’t get enough of the theorising and love these videos.. thanks to the people that have put in the work producing these ...👏👏
I am so grateful that David shares his knowledge and is such a good teacher. I cannot get of space, the unknown and psychics. I am like a sponge that just wants more and more. For someone like him with such a great gift to share is beautiful. Thank you for such great content
I've only watched this video about 10 times. I imagine that I'll be here another 10 times as well. Thanks for all the arguing points Cool Worlds. You guys help me look and feel a little smarter then i really am to my friends and loved ones.
The fact you're drawn to this suggests you've only scratched the surface of your intelligence.
LOL
Strange, I forgot I watched this 1 year ago and now my opinion has changed
On an off chance, do check that you've not left loop playback ON... /s
One of the mistakes of our antropomorphism is that we think that evolution YES or YES led to intelligence...and this is not true...in 600 millions of years of animals evolution on Earth,intelligence (to a grade of civilization type) just happened once...with humans...(we can assume that dolphins or cephalopods also have some type of intelligence but not to human level or capable to form civilizations)...
For example...Dinosaurs as species run the planet during 180 millions years...even so the dino most intelligent,doesnt was smarter than an actual chicken...
Dinos evolved in thousands of ways,on air,land and water...but never evolved to understand a diferencial equation,because basically evolution doesnt lead to intelligence as final result...intelligence is just a subproduct of evolution...
I intuitively end with the concept of common life-uncommon intelligence...we could talk about the asteroid and dinosaurs 60 millions of years ago,and other extintions that led to mammals and eventualy to humans...a russian rulet en many case our human existence...
we only need to go 70 thousands years in the recent past,a volcano erupted...a hard climate change that almost lead to the extincion of human race...only a hundred or maybe a thousands of human individuals survived...of a population of hundred of thousands...we were closed to total desimation,and humans 70 thousands ago were more or less as smart as us...
And what would had happened if those humans disappeard...nothing...the life on the planet would continued normally...its not that humans would had been replaced by other smart mammal...not necesarely...chimpanzees,that are our most close relative...are smart,but not to human level...
Someone can say "hey,evolution need intelligence species because who gonna build rockets to abandon the planet and colonize other places???"...well,nature have a response to this Panspermia...living thing travelling on meteorites from planet to planet to other planet systems eventualy (as Oumuamua and Borisov as showed)...
So,intelligence its not the pinnacle of evolution...just a subproduct that can or not happen...because evolution not need it in ultimate instance...
Hey Bill Schopf was my professor at ucla when I was in college doing my general education 20 years ago! Great class. Funny guy. He's Mr. Microfossil. He showed us how a closeup picture of a pepperoni pizza could look like micro fossils to the untrained eye
There was a James Bond movie that used a woman's body to prove you need to know distance and magnification to analyze a photo.
Wow
@@TheExoplanetsChannel
Yeah it was a year-long class called "GE Cluster: History of the Cosmos and Life." The first third of it was basic cosmology and astrophysics, the second third was geology, and the last third was biology.
Schopf taught the biology part, but he was present in the lecture hall during the entire course, sometimes trash-talking the other professors if he thought that they hadn't explained something well.
Always making jokes. He was a big skeptic of the Martian "microfossils" from 1996. The class was for non-science majors only.
@@byteme6346
Is it an old james bond movie, or one of the new ones from the last ten years? I'll have to check that out
Mate. Your videos are unreal. I listen to you every night when falling asleep and you feed a curiosity in my brain. Thanks for making such good content.
How Cool is that I fall asleep to these vids every night for months now. Even cooler that I wake up and find myself a lot more happier than the day before.
Cannot thank these guys enough!
Hes right
Lol I use them to fall asleep too! So calming and relaxing.
Me too.
I fell asleep to one of Isaac Arthur's videos a few weeks ago and had dreams of living on a space station orbiting Neptune. It was pretty cool.
My day just got a load better seeing you posted. Love it all. Your voice is akin to Attenborough. Very calming
Yea he could definitely narrate some nature or space documentaries.
Same
Your channel happens to be the easiest to listen to, with being under isolation at home, not from going out endangering our families. Thanks for these productions!
I can listen to you for hours. Thank you for all your brilliant thoughtful videos.
I was literally just watching this video when a science journal i read here in Germany notified me on my phone about this new study using Bayesian statistics to determine the probabilities of life and intelligence by a certain David Kipping... Sadly they didn't link this Video :D
Keep it up professor! You and your channel are a true gem on TH-cam
Hahaha nice
What are the odds?
You’ve really outdone yourself with this video Prof. Kipling. This channel feels like a pioneer that paves the way for all future space related exploration. Thank you!
:)
Wow I didn’t think it was possible to approach this issue in any meaningful way but I stand corrected. You made the logical argument so easy to follow that an average person like i can follow it. Thanks for your time and effort. May you have all the success in the world. Keep up the good work it is changing and inspiring many lives.
Love your videos. Some of the best on TH-cam. Your “Lab assistant” is a doll.
Dude your videos are so awesome. For the past couple months I’ve been getting more and more and more interested in space and just everything about it and just how mind bendingly insane space actually is. Its so awesome to have people like you who know so much to be able to learn from. Keep making videos man love it
This channel is the perfect combination of an awesome host and deeply interesting content that you couldn't get anywhere else. It's a (team of) scientist(s) showing their brand spanking new work. It's so great, I love it.
:)
D353rt I love it, too. Such an honor to be treated to intelligent authenticity while we’re stuck in an age of flubbergushing mediocrity.
I'm so very glad I found this channel. Very good work, keep on making great videos
Hey, I just wanted to let you know that your voice is so soothing, and when you talk about the wondrous enigma of space, it puts me to sleep. Thank you!
Fascinating, well-made and I didn't understand a word of it
Oh God! I thought I was the only one
What are you going to do about it?
@@dsdy1205 the question is what are you going to do about it?
@@commentarygold8553 Well I understand it, so that question is irrelevant
@@dsdy1205 well that’s great for you. Please enlighten us O wise one
The way you articulate points, your voice and tone..your unbelievably high degree of intelligence..it's all like one big massage for my brain, thank you very much.
This has got to be the most depressing channels on YT. When I'm feeling depressed, I watch this channel and find out that whatever it was that was depressing me is nothing compared to this. So it immediately cheers me up. Figures.
Thanks, Doc Kipp, damn I wish I had someone like you as my professor during my education.
I would also assume that intelligent life is even more rare because here on Earth mass extinction played a big role on how life evolved.
Maybe it's also possible to shrink it down if accounting for stellar system stability, flux received by stars, magnetosphere force, if gas giant could sustain life on satellites.
There are way too many factor and we know so little.
So just by using Bayesian Statistics, we arrive at an already pretty low value.
Sadly, accounting for the Fermi Paradox (Space and Time, Rare Earth, Rear Intelligence; see _Isaac Arthur_ ) probably only worsens the odds oof.
Do intelligent people have to all think the same things? Like, instead of calling someone stupid, behind their backs or amongst you own, did it ever occur to the intelligencia to be nice and persuade the less intelligent to be informed of the truth? I know that I am not smart enough either. Is it humility, or self-reflection?
Oh
That’s just speculation that the dinosaurs or other more superior species needed to be wiped out by some sort of mass extinction event for us or any smaller species to evolve into intelligence! We don’t 100% know that, maybe with or without that event we would’ve still evolved into who we are... we still had dangerous predators to overcome like lions, tigers, bears, mammoths, saber tooth’s etc & still made it to high intelligence so idk bro, we still don’t even really know if dinosaurs were a threat to other species survival or not, it could all be myth. They probably weren’t all that hard to live around in regard to smaller species being able to evolve properly into us or any intelligent alien species on another planet facing a similar issue
@@JAYFULFILMZ Nah I doubt it, just look at us, as the new top predator , not event taking that into account, just us moving in and building a house will displace other species of animals and eventually ruine their habitat and go extinct. Id imagine it was the same with dinos around, probably worse since we've found other things to eat and they still had to eat what came across their mouths so us early mammals were definately on the menu just like todays pigs who are smarter than dogs dont have a chance to evolve because we're keeping them in prisons for food, we are definatley keep other species from evolving. I think the dinos did the same. But nature has inbuilt balance so in the end being on the bottom of the food chain for so long while the top predator was busy feasting, probably helped us develope the intelligence, or at leaste kept the Dinosaurs from needing to evolve, they thought rulilng the planet was the end all and be all of existance, and in their mind they were right, rulling for millions of years, but didnt take into account outer space, so they were just a sitting target to get whiped out by a mass extinction event. We on the other hand can see it comming, but i guess will also be distracted by our own feasting while some other unseen thing will take us out too. And then the animals we've been keeping under our thumbs might go on and take over the planet and could evolve in higher intellillgence then we've reached.
I really love this channel and your presentation skills. Glad I found it.
I’ve been watching these videos for hours on end, let’s just appreciate how much effort and research this takes
Love your videos! Your conclusion - primitive life is common, intelligent life is rare - is the same conclusion of Dr. Nick Lane, but approaching it from the abiogenesis perspective, (he's a biochemist who leads the "Origins of Life Program" at the University College London). In his latest book, "The Vital Question", he walks the reader thru abiogenesis via energy flux in the white smoker deep sea vents ("Lost City"). Then convincingly describes how eukaryotes evolved, how it was a stochastic event (endosymbiosis leading to mitochondria) that occurred only once (in billions of years), but was essential to the creation of complex life. Think that you would find it a good read (if you haven't done so already!). Thanks for reading!
Urey-Miller all over again. I've heard that nuclear decay was responsible for abiogenesis. I guess some computer simulations based on actual physics, I care not what ingredients you start with, will prove the abiogenesis question and the even more difficult explanation of origin of species by natural selection. But we'll have to have a robust simulator, and a correct one at that, to do any sort of proofs. Did keyboards evolve because I have two hands or did two hands evolve so I could type?
@@CandidDate actually Dr Nick Lane is describing something completely different than the Urey-Miller experiment, and reflects the amazing advances we have made in the biological sciences since Urey's time (1950s). You can say whatever you want - "it's a free country" - but your comments do not represent science.
Me too
i’ve watched a lot of content speculating on intelligent life existing elsewhere and i can say with my whole heart that this is the first video i’ve seen that gave me some new, fresh insight into the matter. really appreciate all the hard work you put in over at cool worlds
I like the concept of incorporating human bias into the equation.
Also, it's very cool that you bring in your young lab assistant into your work in a playful manner. She must be quite proud of her teacher and educator. You must also be quite proud of her. Maybe she will be inspired to become a scientist, educator and/or artist herself when she grows up. Should I ever become a father myself, I certainly would want to have moments like this. Passing on the passion for learning and curiosity I think is one of the most important and beautiful things in life
💯 Absolutely 💯. One of the hardest, best jobs being a parent. David seems like he'd be a fantastic father
The window only closes unless we engineer the sun, or sling the earth outward? (Another great video)
Professor Kipping, the content of your channel is absolutely amazing. You have an incredible mind, even just listening to you is pure gold. Thank you for your great work. You definitely have a magical talent to make me truly enter into all these Cool Worlds.
Fantastic. Thankyou for tackling the 'numbers' argument
I just finished reading a wonderful book : the Einstein Enigma. This is one of the topic of this book and I recommend it to everyone !
Thanks for the recommendation~👍
This may just be my favourite science channel on TH-cam! Thank you so much for you work 🙏
Giggity
An excellent video. Thank you.
IMO, the difference in time between the start of simple life, and consciousness, really does strongly indicate that we have grossly underestimated the difficulty in life becoming sentient.
i.e. We are in a so-called goldilocks zone, yet sentient life took the entire age of the universe to arise on this planet. Even worse: we have a narrow window until the evolution of the sun makes sentient life here almost impossible.
My guess is that simple life is probable throughout the universe, but sentience is exceedingly, vanishingly rare. We should never expect to see it within our lifetime, within our light bubble.
The question he asks is wrong. The question should be what is the mechanism that spreads life through the universe, once it’s developed once, can spores, survive space and propagate life . If so, then the equation is far more simple to achieve life
@@jaylucas8352 That's only for simple life.
Sentient life is likely to be an incomprehensibly more unlikely result.
We could have a galaxy full of amoeba, but still have no sentient life.
The "equation" is unhelpful because we don't know the constants or variables.
It's all guesses.
Top TH-cam channel. The only notification I have ever turned on. Please discuss in depth the Miller-Urey experiment.
Only thing broader than the universe is this dudes impressive jawline
And check out that stylin' cardigan!
Is that a PRS you’re playing?
His chin, like the universe, is constantly expanding..
lol
He can totally "big bang" my wife anytime his heart so dires
Finally, I've been waiting for a new episode. Professor please keep them coming. Your channel brings me great insight on cool new worlds. Thanks
Didn't you watch the one about the formation on the Earth? It was very recently made and very well done, with ever second a massive amount of years passing.
Excellent video David about how to infer something with few information. Thanks
Man I love this Channel. This top level information you don't find anywhere
stay safe professor, we need you to talk to us in english 😆 explaining complicated formulas with warm and charming voice and patience, thank you professor david kipping.
:)
Hmm.. very interesting. How about red dwarfs and their earth-like analogs? Let's say a lifespan of 5-10 trillion years, which, I expect, is very common for the most common star type. That should give life more time to find the way, by a significant factor. How does the star affect the probability? Our sun is not a typical star, it's a rare one (7%). We only had 14 billion years so far, so maybe that is a factor as well? Maybe 100 billion years from now, the odds are somewhat different?
The star systems with a higher probably of life as we know it are currently believed to be K-type stars. No Earth-like planets are expected to exist around red dwarfs. But the higher number of stars are red dwarfs, so they could host the highest number of exoplanets with alien life (different to ours).
I think a major argument against habitability around red dwarfs are the conditions around such stars. To my knowledge red dwarfs are predominantly flare stars, meaning they have massive stellar storms, which could feasibly change average temperature on their planets by tens, even fifty degrees in irregular and unpredictable periods. Any planets around them that are in the habitable zone are also likely to get tidally locked very soon, because of their proximity to the star, meaning one side would always face towards the star and the other always away, potentially complicating the situation further. That doesn't mean it's necessarily impossible for life to form there, but the red dwarfs are far less stable than usually presented and maybe more hostile to simple life even if it comes into existence, so all in all it's difficult to say.
Its difficult to realize how early we are, in the grand scheme of the universe lifetime, which will be seemingly impossibly long. At some point, there will ONLY be red dwarves, white dwarves, black dwarves, and black holes. All star formation will cease. All galaxies will be so far apart from one another, that any observer will have no idea that any others ever existed. WTF?
@@Deeplycloseted435 Well, if the Eternal Inflation theory is true, there always will be some other universes beginning to exist (maybe with different laws of physics) where the inflaton field settles down and a Big Bang will happen, even while this universe/region ends in the heat death.
juan tuan we will never know, cause we will all be dead and the universe will not know of our existence!!!
intelligent and humble. two things that always stand out when watching your videos. love it.
Ugh I want you to teach me more ! Your thinking is so beautiful and your rational probability statistics make very reasonable sense
Thanks for posting these videos up I absolutely love them they definitely make the day go by. Thanks for your hard work @cool worlds!
Your way of conducting real research, simplifying it for us mortal men and then sharing it in the best visual way possible. I think you found a way to shift the way how science should be conducted. Just think if every professor in the world had the possibility with funds, to spend time on subjects they find interesting and conducted real research, simply it, and then illustrate it and share it for everyone to see, just like you do here and have been doing for years now. I believe the world would look very different and in a positive way. Thank you and much love!
so yas saying we shouldnt learn ta read, let the preacher man tell us whats what in that there bible and all will be well huh?
I've had the same opinion for a while. It's nice to see the details presented like this and I hope they are more clear before the end of my lifetime. Thank you for another wonderful video.
This has become my favorite channel on TH-cam. I discovered this channel only 2 days ago.
Just can't get tired of these videos!
Thanks Kipping! So hooked😅
The calculations you discuss include “abiogenesis” occurring individually on each candidate world. But - even if it is rare for life to “begin” on a world - our existence proves that it happened at least once in the history of our universe - and once we know that it happened once - we have to acknowledge panspermia. Life arising on any planet could potentially spread to many more - even those that didn’t have the necessary conditions for abiogenesis to occur on them. We do not know if abiogenesis ever occurred on earth - but we do know it occurred somewhere. How long it takes for that life to evolve intelligence probably depends on the selection pressures which will vary greatly world to world. On earth it took 4 billion years - but on another planet it might only take 40 million years. Learning more about how intelligence evolved on earth will probably allow us to assign a low and high range answer to the question “how long does it take for intelligence to emerge”.
Finally - every time we have tried to think of the Earth as “special”, we have been proven wrong by the universe. I think it is a mistake to think that we are unusual and will get the best answers to our questions by assuming the Earth is typical - at least until it can be proven that we are not.
As many variables as this video addresses that others don't, they still have to leave out thousands more.
I agree with you. I think it is way better to see us as "average" rather than an extreme, think about it. I think it is really likely that there are Millions of Civiliations out there, that are just as far developed as we are. Some are behind us in development and some are ahead of us.
@@tminuszehn4048 Thinking statistically the vast majority will be far ahead of us.
@@systemicchaos3921 how do you come to that assumption? I think there will be at least as many that are more developed as we are as there will be civilisations that aren't. And a big number that is about as much developed as we are. Why should the vast majority be ahead of us? Because factoring that our solar system is kinda "young"? Only reasonable explanation I could think of. 🤔 Glad to hear about your thought process!
I couldnt have said it better. So I didnt. Thank you for sharing.
Amazing quality as per usual!
Love your choice of topics. Excellent.
I love the extra effort you put in, with the casino and everything! Really shows how you want to teach and show people
My own theory is that there are many intelligent forms of alien life, but they live too far away and they are too adapted to their biosphere to be interested in ours. Pathogens, wrong levels of gases, wrong kinds of light that could cause cancer, gravity to little or too much all make our world uninhabitable for most others.
Why do you believe that?
I just LOVE how this channel promotes Bayesian reasoning!
Great analysis, thank you. I have been rewatching most of your content lately and it's even better on the second take.
Furthermore, your conclusion "Life is common, intelligent life is rather rare" should be extended to many scenarios beside finding life in outer universe :)
Very informative. I could put my phone down and take in information through my headphones for hours. Calm voice narrative.
Great work for both: the paper and the video. Can't wait to see what comes next. Best regards from Germany and Italy.
It's always a pleasure. Thanks
Oh my goodness you have an awesome lab assistant, my faith in humanity as been bolstered. thank you for all the work u do, love the videos :D
Nice job David.
First time this hypothesis is being supported statistically and i would say quantitatively rather than the usual qualitatively method.
But there is an issue he doesn't make clear: *Drakes Equation does not factor the entire Universe. It factors **_only_** the Milky Way Galaxy. It also factors **_out all life except_** intelligent communicative civilizations.*
Really good explained. I had a lot of thoughts of it myself, but this is really the most probable explanation. Thanks for that. 👍
I love this guys way of explaining things and the way he it is disseminated it is like a trance like he is in my head answering the questions I would ask before I do ask. Also I think he makes you think a certain way but I believe that is also the way I aught to think... hats off
This is one of my favorite TH-cam videos of all time.
intelligent informative content that makes you think, what a great channel. Thank you for the hard work that goes into making these videos
Every one of your videos blows my mind. 🤯
I love to have a nice smoke sesh and then watch your videos
🤍💛💫🇨🇦🪴💨
Thanks, your videos are incredibly informative and I hope you become one of the big great science channels on this platform!
Yes, his approach is quite unique. Its really almost like art the way the videos and themes are composed.
This is brilliant. And let’s get busy investigating life in the outer solar system’s ocean moons so we can potentially get a second data point.
Bruh being in lockdown and such your voice and explaining is off the charts!!!
Faith is all we have man. Nothing is set in stone
One of the best science videos I've seen anywhere. Brilliant! Would love to see more explanation of Bayesian statistics with such astonishing clarity. :-)
"Life Looks for Life"
What happens when life finds life? Might not be pretty
Does it though? If life is common it might be considered uninteresting by advanced civilisations. There may be all sorts of exotic physics and technology to keep them interested.
@@systemicchaos3921 I see this happening, in fact it might have already happened.... web.archive.org/web/20190501130711/www.terrybisson.com/theyre-made-out-of-meat-2/
@JustJitzu and there it is. Something springing from the vacuum and dissapearing again.
@@systemicchaos3921 Look at it this way.... an extremely advanced civilization will have unlocked every last secret that physics and technology have to offer. Quantum mechanics to them would be like arithmetic to us. So what do they do then? Go looking for other life forms in the universe! (Their curiosity is what let them become advanced in the first place. ) We may not be that interesting, but we're the only game in town. Even very intelligent people love watching goldfish, so we just might be putting on an amusing show for somebody!
very well explained.. good job.
What a beautiful child! Bless you and your family!
When you come for some Space junk food, and you get the whole damn buffet !!!
i tell you, this channel is one to cherish for the rest of your days and always hold dear to your heart!:) consider yourself lucky that you found it, just saying!
Definitely dude 😎
I've just discovered cool worlds.....I'm hungry for more.
Wow, a fascinating topic made even more so with real some in-depth analysis - love it! Please keep making this long form format - it's really really good, and the talented "lab assistant" obviously takes after Dad!
I love the Carl Sagan quote at the end. Thanks for the wonderful content!
I love your channel Dr. Kipping. ❤❤❤❤❤
Just found your channel. I love it. Love it!
Welcome to Cool Worlds!
honestly your my new bedtime jam. your voice is so soothing
Dark5 who?! 😂
Your = You're
I've always found it fascinating that multicellular life only emerged 600 million years ago, relatively much closer to now than the emergence of life itself. I wonder if this method you've developed has anything to say about the relative difficulty of progress from abiogenesis to multicellular life, versus multicellular life to intelligent life?
It doesn't. This guy does not know anything about biology or our geological history, which is why he is using unreliable and meaningless "Bayesian statistics," which are for attempting to guess the probability of things we don't understand; but we DO understand it. The Cambrian explosion occurred 0.5 Gya not by chance, but because of changes in the Earth's geotectonic activity. The "Boring Billion" before then (1.8-0.8 Gya) was uneventful because Earth was geologically dead. Life depends on biogeochemical cycles, like the phosphorus cycle, the nitrogen cycle, and the carbon cycle. Phosophrus is the main limiting nutrient for life, and can only break out of the rocks and soil to be utilized by life mostly by the tidal forces of water. It has been calculated that an exoplanet entirely covered in an ocean could not support complex multicellular life such as even plankton because it does not have waves eroding important minerals like phosphorus out of the continental rocks and into the ocean for later biological use.
What changed between 0.8 Gya and 0.5 Gya is that the Earth's core has partially solidified. The core of the Earth has been fully molten for most of it's history, but is cooling down and between 0.8 and 0.5 billion years ago formed a solidified inner core while still maintaining a liquid outer core, forming a dynamo (Dynamo theory) that resulted in the creation of the modern geomagnetic field that surrounds the Earth approximately 600 million years ago. In 1 billion years the Earth's core will cool down to the point of solidifying entirely. The other thing the cooling of the Earth's core did was cause the emergence of modern plate tectonics (primitive plate tectonics had already existed), resulting in the breakup of the supercontinent Rodinia about 750-633 years ago. All this movement of the continents has and still is releasing minerals into the oceans and atmosphere that life, including us, need to eat in order to maintain our complexity. Just look at the nutrients and minerals on the back of food packaging.
@@codys447 Do you have any pieces of books/literature /documents that you could refer me to? That was quite insightful
@@edit4310 I found some good sources, articles and studies for further reading.
Ocean planets probably can't support complex life: "Exoplanet hunters rethink search for alien life" by Alexandra Witze.
Earth's core and internal heating is responsible for both magnetic field and plate tectonics: "If the earth's core provides heat that drives plate tectonics, what would eventually happen if the earth's core cooled down?" by USCB ScienceLine.
Volume and efficiency of phosphorus cycle in Precambrian: "Less life: Limited phosphorus recycling suppressed early Earth’s biosphere" by Peter Kelley.
Plate tectonics relationship to oxygen rise and phosphorus production: "Plate tectonics may have driven Cambrian Explosion" by University of Exeter.
A more general overview of why Earth became more habitable, including both solar radiation and the gradually growing inner core: "Why did life develop on the surface of the Earth in the Cambrian?" by Doglioni et al.
We currently know so little about the Universe around us. I feel assuming we can apply how intelligent life came to be on Earth to other planets is an example of natural human hubris. We currently have a sample size of one. Our data set is frustratingly incomplete, but I love that channels like this exist to get us all thinking deeply about these topics and leave us better informed after each viewing. Awesome to have an expert like this helping us to make sense of it all. Keep up the good work!
I think it’s almost impossible that we are alone. The universe could be infinite too
"We currently have a sample size of one. Our data set is frustratingly incomplete" or frustratingly complete.
Great work! I almost spit out my coffee when the ancient aliens dude came on the screen. I'll continue to watch and share your vids!