- “...and let's the person answer without interrupting with her own thoughts.” It’s a very good interview, indeed. About interruptions, it’s not difficult to have an interview without those in the format where you get to choose the ones you interview, and they come to present their expert analysis, not for example to promote a political agenda. The questions are also presented beforehand, so the interviewee knows how much time he has to answer each question. Joel Wuthnow was also a very good one as an interviewee. He stuck to the format and the schedule, and in effect took care of the interruptions himself. It was easy to see that he could have given (and probably would have liked to give) a much longer and deeper answer to every question, but he stuck to the plan. Hadn’t he done so, and the interviewee had to interrupt him, some people would undoubtedly have commented angrily here, without understanding that many interesting questions that we all are now glad to know Wuthnow’s answer to were left out because of the interviewee did not stick to the plan. Gladly Wuthnow did, and we could enjoy an interview were there’s the right balance between depth and coverage.
but still not excepted as a country, the UN the US and the West state Taiwan is China and China is it's Government, it is called one China, as usual the US speaks out from it's mouth and it's backside .. mostly the latter.
thought they work for america? tbh not sure any small countries can function independently, autonomous as in we or someone owns you but not any real obligations on our side, and thing is china and america in a custody battle lol cant claim independence when you're dependent on trade and assistance, securing food, securing power, ect, most independent countries fall into a category of being owned by one of 3-4 world powers, who i feel work together to profit off the others. if your part of the u.n you know who your masters are, if not theres other options, and tbh most independent nations get wrecked eventually, if they cant hold their own, eather by the powers that be, or because they powers that be allow you to be. they dont always gotta push you off the cliff if they just refuse helping you when youre hanging from it. i mean, who makes the rules? tbh most i see as just children negotiating allowances or pets doing some trick for a biscuit, thats independence tho eh? the division just makes it easier for proxy wars without the main powers feeling much obligation and as i said dont gotta push em off the cliff if theyre hanging from it. produce items, justify war, potentially fight wars and buy our weapons and materials, ect, youre " independent" cuz its profitable in some way. taxation is just the evolution of warlords plundering villages, more profitable, less damage so quicker returns, human nature tho, you can see the same stuff expressed in gangs and extortion, and why the whole "working together" or "for the good of society " thing is always pushed so much, if the people you rob are happy you robbed them, makes it easier to repeat, same reason war on drugs was never won, too profitable for those that could have done something about it, and people dont mind being robbed and poisoned, because thats how little most people enjoy their existences, the real powers are literally dying by treating everyone else as equals and when they fall everyone gets crushed, so yeah majority of countries, not independent, if we didnt buy yours stuff, or defend or supply tools to defend how long would most last? how often do problems happen the second you start becoming self sufficient?
@@ryanluna7322 Wow you're conflating a lot there. If requiring assistance to feed you population means you're not independent than a lot of major powers, including China, aren't. Independence doesn't mean you can do whatever, whenever, with no consequences. It means you can decide if those consequences are worth it. Don't act like having critical imports and living under a totalitarian regime are the same thing. "If you're part of the U.N. you know who you're masters are," China and Russia are part of the UN, they only ones who aren't are Vatican City, Saudi Arabia, or are almost completely unrecognized as nations. The UN has no control over anyone, unless they specifically agree, by design. There's no requirement to join, and no penalty for leaving, other than having no vote and trouble getting back in. "Taxation is just the evolution of warlords plundering villages," no. When a society passes 150 people in population you hit an issue, smaller than that, everyone knows everyone else. But people can only have about 150 relationships with other people, due to the size of the human brain. If your society is small enough that everyone knows everyone else, than any need society has gets filled due to social pressure, everyone sacrifices because if they don't they lose their standing. In a society of thousands, everyone slips through and nothing gets done. Infrastructure on the scale necessary for a industrial society, with things like electricity, plumbing, waste management, roads, ect., you need to spend money/effort well beyond what any one person can give, and coordination likewise impossible for a single person. Without taxes, you can't build a society large enough to provide anything like that. Yes, some gets misused, and people steal some, but they get punished if they get caught. Before you start, I'm talking tax money, campaign funds and donations have different rules, on purpose. "How often do problems happen the second you start becoming self-sufficient?" name one place that can be considered self-sufficient by your standards. Specialization of work means that people learn different advanced skills. Go into the woods, see how long you last. Don't take any tools you didn't make, with materials you didn't gather, and knowledge someone didn't give you. If you want anything better than that, you need other people.
2023 First sign of Chinese economic decline as housing market collapses. 2024 The great exodus begins as Western manufacturing starts leaving the Chinese market. 2025 China crackdown on unemployed youth movement demanding a political voice. 2026 Massive civil unrest in China as millions of unemployed Chinese protest job loses. 2027 Civil war in China as communist regime send troops to put down protesters. 2028 President Xi arrested in Chinese army coup. 2029 Cross nation referendum held to unite mainland China and Taiwan. 2030 Taiwanese president officially becomes president of United China.
sorry to say, but the phrase is at least as accurate as China's claim. Xi like Putin is using the idea that because they have some Chinese genetics (with a lot of mixing since the 40s), they are Chinese, so the place must be CHINESE. Actually Mao was focused on taking the island but could never make it happen
God save the World. If war breaks out in Taiwan there will be a very high possibility for a WW3. If WW3 breaks out im almost certain we'll be all doomed.
our prayers and sh*tloads of arms. The buildup of bases in the Phillipines is going full steam. "speak softly and carry a big stick" - Theodore Roosevelt
Yes, and look how it turned out for Ukraine; more weapons, more resources, more human life...but whatever keeps the media bullshitte mill turning out a good campfire story to brainwash future generations with right?
If China remains on good terms with the US, then they can enjoy their status as Asia's economic powerhouse and get former Soviet republics to form strong economic bonds. That would be far better for everyone involved than any sort of conflict.
except that - like every Dictator (including Khulio) when the issues at home get too big, and your corruption precludes any chance of sorting things out, the only choice is to pretend everyone is against you, make a load of propaganda up about how the country is being stifled by foreigners, and then start a war. China is rapidly loosing out to the likes of India in that continent and beyond. When that decline hits the population to the point they dare to start to grumble, then Chinese leadership will start a war.
his problems are domestic. The Western media doesn't much cover what is happening in China, their economy is systemically flawed and hundreds of millions (Some say china only actually has 900 million people but that is still a huge number) of middle class and upper middle class chinese are about to get roasted over the fire and lose literally everything, just before they retire in a decade (there are no social programs in china whatsoever- no healthcare, no money for retirees outside of the money they save and call a pension- which incidentally the accounts are being literally just taken by banks that are about to fail.. the average chinese has zero power against the powerful, the courts are rubber stamps for the rich, so Xi is rightfully worried about a mass uprising. Not to mention the difficulty transforming to a consumer based economy when everyone is getting so old....
Invasion from the sea against a shore harbouring a determined and prepared foe needs enormous resources and would entail massive losses in men, material and treasure. Chinese preparations for an invasion would be seen for months ahead of time. If the gamble fails then China may be wounded fatally. A likely return to being a second-rate power is a strong possibility as Chinese demography slowly unwinds and their export economy is destroyed.
China is already a second-rate power, despite their protestations to the contrary. Given their political system it is certain that their military performance would fall far, far short of their propaganda, which the west seems to believe, just as Russia fooled the West.
Same could be said of Putins invasion of Ukraine and Russia being reduced to a poor country with a chronic demographic problem because of a failed invasion. Putins invasion is failing because the Ukrainian citizens refuse to surrender. Same would likely be said about the Taiwanese if they refuse to surrender. The British see China as a Totalitarian State and the experience of Hong Kong and the Covid has confirmed it . Slava Ukraini and Independent Taiwan
True. In a simulation the US lost an aircraft carrier but ultimately China lost. Islands of this size are notoriously hard to conquer, hence why the UK has been impregnable for centuries and one of the reasons the US loves it so much as an ally - the ultimate staging post 👍
Why do we not call it what it is, it is the CCP not China, we shoukd be clearly defining the two, I think this would help as it takes away the nationalist view of the west against the chjnese people. This only supports nationalism which can be very strong properganda for the CCP.
Perhaps, but do you not think the CCP can get the Chinese there with unrelenting nationalist propaganda? It's a totalitarian surveillance state at twice Moskou's efficiency. Just look at what Pootin can achieve in a few years, Russians are willing to destroy themselves for imaginary threats and imperialism.
@@tonupharryManchuria? All trans-Ural Russia is ripe! This would also solve the USA and Europe's fears of rogue region's with nuclear weapons. Begin normalization of relations with Taiwan, Japan and the west will only grumble deep concerns. Throw in the fall of North Corea regime - all will come with congratulations.
23:13 - Kate, your expression, happy & satisfied, as you wrap up this great interview says it all! You’re like a talented chef who has just prepared a great meal for a good friend 😅
He's wrong in the sense that he (and many in the west) think that Xi and the rocket force and the military speak with one voice and no major dissent in the Rocket Force and amonst Xi's aids or corruption in the senior leadership of the PLA, PLA navy. Couple all of the fact that the Chinese military hasn't been engaged in actual live combat since the wars against Vietnam in 1979 or 1991.
@@LoremIpsum1970 I'm sure there were plans to (I have no information on that, just a hunch). Xi was also troubled by that nuclear sub near Taiwan than had a gas leak.
0:11: 💡 China is cautious about showing its sensitive capabilities to Russia and being seen as a military ally, while also maintaining relations with Europe and the United States. 3:50: 🔍 There is a problem with corruption in China, causing a lack of confidence in senior military leadership. 6:55: 💰 China prioritizes spending on security forces despite negative GDP growth during the pandemic. 10:20: 💢 China is engaging in a coercive campaign to pressure Taiwan into not pursuing independence and to deter the United States from supporting Taiwan during its upcoming election in January. 13:57: 🌍 China's global reach and influence pose risks to military access and privileges for the United States and its allies. 17:06: 🔍 There is inconclusive evidence of a major fatal submarine accident in 2003 and the existence of chain traps for submarines is uncertain. 20:19: 🌐 China and Russia engage in performative military exercises, but are cautious about revealing sensitive capabilities and being seen as military allies. Recap by Tammy AI
Cute, but why bother with this? We already know that AI gives results which are quick, easy, and subtly wrong. For example, the expert was saying that China's 2003 submarine accident is well documented, unlike the current rumors which have not yet been substantiated.
West is corrupt from head to toe. China is most powerful, most influential, most innovative country in this planet right now. It hasn't reached this stage being corrupt. You are lying. West talks corrupt, walks corrupt, even their evil laughter is corrupt.
The Chinese navy launches a fraction of the sorties from a carrier compared to the US, and they don't even do any nighttime training sorties. Not ready for prime time.
China has an advantage in distributed lethality over America in an area denial environment. It has a numerically superior naval force but it is only half the tonnage .. It has a large surface fleet of destroyers ,2 carriers ,a good mix of nuclear and conventional submarines ,the world's first Ballistic ASHM and 128 houbei missile boats that pack 8 subsonic ASHMs each . This set up is more than good enough if America doesn't fight in a way that plays to America's strengths.
@@louisbabycos106 - Try this for area denial: China relies on imports of food, fuel, etc. (and on exports to earn money). China invades Taiwan; USA blockades The Strait of Malacca, The Gulf of Hormuz, etc.)
That's the Chinese people's business, not ours. My country has been very successful in recovering from Communist rule exactly because we overthrew it ourselves at a moment we chose ourselves. We were ready to build something different. The Chinese might not be yet. But this doesn't mean we shouldn't prevent China from causing suffering abroad, of course.
Dear Kate, A large sheet of Polystyrine just to the left of camera would fill the shadows (Dark sie of face) and lower the key lightand add a little more diffusion (Frost or Trace) sorrry to be so interfering but I eagerly look forward to your interviews (I used to do this for a living on commercials). sorry X.
Russia is a massive exporter of food and fuel. China is the world's biggest importer of both. The USA does not need to engage China directly. All the USA needs to do is impose a complete naval blockade. And wait.
@@martavdz4972 issues of cost and volume. And land transport is much easier to target. If PRC invades ROC, first thing to die will be pipelines from Russia to PRC.
China has never in its modern history taken on a peer level adversary in military conflict. Not only that, they’ve never played any part whatsoever in a peer level military conflict. They would do well to remember that before they seriously consider taking on the United States, and its powerful, and very modern, military allies in the western Pacific.
As someone who actually has experience with Communists (grew up in a Communist country and spent 2 months in a children's spa that was more like prison): good luck with this attitude. The last thing you need is underestimate them.
Hypersonic missiles hype is very much hyped up. 😉 Russia keeps on talking about their ability, but they are not the only ones having those. Putin just spills the beans all the time when he feels to threaten the world. It doesn't take long to find out about anti-missile weaponry to see the truth about hypersonics.
Say what you want there is no nation on earth w the amount of combat experience the US has from the last 20 years…having said that Ukraine is now the cutting edge of what warfare will be moving forward…
I'm not entirely sure about that, Ukraine is fighting Russia which definitely isn't cutting edge in some areas. It is in electronic warfare, but not in tanks and missiles.
I would add that China, by refocusing on military fundamentals, is keeping its options open to benefit from fallout from the Russia/Ukraine war, preparing for the weakening, or even possibly, the breakup of Russia. Supporting ex-Soviet republics may provide significant benefits in terms of the Belt and Road initiative as well as long standing territorial claims to greater Manchuria.
Firstly, Wuthnow handled this interview well and you should draw on his expertise further. If Xi believes that PLAN is not ready to assimilate Taiwan and is concerned that the military and people of China need some form of "dress rehersal" for assertions of power, is that not in fact what is going on in the South Asia Sea today?
Not really. China's going to need to experience a bit more adventurism than they have so far. If I was China, I'd try doing some joint operations (anti-terrorism, etc.) with the US. Or barring that, maybe try some rebel-supressing of their own in Pakistan or wherever that might be needed. China really needs to get some hands-on fighting experience if they're ever gonna really know if they're ready for The Big One.
I still am of the opinion that the Chinese military is at most half as good as the Russian military. China's one test of bravery failed in South Sudan in 2016. Russia has a lot of flaws but cowardice isn't one of them. Russia has also actually seen combat since 1979. Taiwan actually trains with forces that have seen combat. Chinese forces landing on the shores of Taiwan will probably be killed before they have time to surrender. So many Chinese ships will be sunk after the first landing that odds are slim that they will even be able to pull off a second landing. Russia can't take out a Country on flat land that they can drive to, who are just now getting F-16s. Yet I'm supposed to believe China can successfully take over a mountainous Country across water, that already has F-16s (110), Mirages (45), M1s, Pattons, Apaches, SuperCobras, Chinooks, Black Hawks, plus 98 ships including 4 destroyers and 4 submarines. And all of this is completely ignoring the USA, UK, Japan, and Australia.
@@johnwhite2576, really? Biden told all of us a week before Russia attacked that Russia was going to attack. You think China will be able to put together a massive amphibious force without the US knowing? You think Taiwan doesn't have SAM missile batteries? Russia can't even fly over Ukraine and you're saying China is going to fly over Taiwan? Russia had 4,000 fighter jets, China has 2,500.
Missing from the mosaic of weaponry you list is a credible nuclear armamentarium. With not terribly many well-chosen nuclear weapons, Taiwan would potentially assure the preservation of their independence against a China that could ill-afford the damage and horrors of a sophisticated nuclear strike. Of course, they may be simultaneously inviting from China's direction complete annihilation of Taiwan's compact country. But if Taiwan formed a nuclear capability with secrecy and deniability, said as much of nothing about their efforts as possible, and were shrewd as to that capability's configuration, the somewhat insecure security like that of the DPRK and that of Israel may be possible. If a generous secret donor nation gave Taiwan the capability overnight, no messy development related issues to conceal, say in the form of a well equipped submarine parked with brilliance and twenty MIRV'D missiles, well, Taiwan suddenly would become formidable indeed, if it were to continue to strengthen substantially further its conventional military forces, all of which it appears the Taiwanese could afford if at present they are deploying only two percent of their current GDP toward fielding their military. Hmm... [Denver, Colorado]
@@arthurpowers3724, you are right. It's why we need treaties like NATO, so that every Country that is in danger doesn't build nukes. Peter Zeihan says that Taiwan could build a nuke over the weekend.
Because youve been fed with the wrong narrative all this time.. srsly anyone whos bothered to take the time to dive deeper into the issue than receiving ye daily dose of murikan journalism would know that relationships between Taiwan and 'China' has always been a much more delicate matter than 'a Great power seeking to assert its influence over its smaller neighbor' or ' a supposed geopolitical scapegoat, diversion tactics' .. the whole idea of a sovereign Taiwan has always been built upon the cooperation of KMT(former nationalist party that fled to the ex-japanese colony and reintroduced a period of military dictatorship, until its power was bargained away to the ppl again and ) and the CCP, on the ground of a ONE CHINA principle , two systems(or two china, wotever) , but that in turn means Taiwan MUST designate itself as China, hence the ROC and PROC, TAIWAN and CHINA.. and thus the significance of HK as a testing ground, or Sinkiang .ahem ahem* ask any taiwanese or hker , we indeed hate CCP to the bone for their past records but that doesnt translate to allowing foreign powers stepping on our territories unhindred *ahem canadian warship ahem ahem or in the case of Hongkong, to be sacrificed as a chess piece in the western-led world order ... one evil hardly justify another.. especially seeing how the US could throw anyone over the bus after Afghan und Ukraine. if u ask me (as a HKer) honestly dun k whats the fuss 's about, it has always been an internal conflict over which political system suits better for the boarder Chinese ethnic state, and was never supposed to be thrown into board daylight for any outsider to step in and add their two cents.. imagine the CCP being a vocal adversary on the northern Ireland issues against the UK and send a fleet to guaranteen scottish independce.. how would that make u feel? as for the taiwanese, they ve been standing guard for (the idea of) a democratic china over 70 years... the incompetence of the PLA plus the existing forts and agreement in place .. and mostly the economic consequence is enough deterrence for an invasion..
Two percent may not seem like much but it does incur a cost . Going higher than 2 percent for a long duration would impact other priorities that Taiwan has .
@@richardbayer5702 Before the onset of Ukrainian Russian war and despite Trump pushing NATO countries to obligate to a 2 percent standard ,NATO members were loathe to reach the 2 percent GDP threshold. This was largely due to European countries having different priorities than America does . 2 percent GDP was scoffed at by the Europeans but hopefully by now it is the accepted norm .
With what's happening in the world at the moment with other countries invading others . Why wouldn't it be a good time for China to jump on the bandwagon and go for Taiwan ?
I couldn't believe what I hear from your so called expert saying that, in general, politics in China is very stable... What! Has he been hiding in Mars?
It's not a clamp down on corruption. It's an internal power struggle within the CCP. This so called expert will look foolish when proof of the submarine disaster is found. He seems to be star stuck by Xi. The greatest threat to the CCP comes from within.
Interesting interview, but I wish that the expert had focused more on the rank and file than speculating on the thinking of the Rulers. I would like to hear more about the effect of reforms of the practice of paying for promotions for example, so please invite him back soon.
The speaker's academic qualifications are very impressive. Maybe he could talk more about his on the ground experiences in military exchanges etc? I would like to learn more about his practical experience as well as all his academic achievements.
@@Serching4JerryGarcia Average infantry grunts are not the kind of military personnel that get invited on military exchanges. They are not the kind that I meet anyway. Rank and file in PLA miiltary terms means employees, as the PLA works on the herbalife model. The more money you kick up to your superiors, the faster you get promotion. To not talk about this is ridiculous. Finally, he repeatedly said that he did not believe that there was a sub accident.
And Indonesia, and Malaysia, and Singapore, and Vietnam, and Thailand, and a number of Pacific islands nations. China has tried to claim territory or otherwise tried to interfere or intimidate each of the nations you and I have listed here.
The AUKUS agreement was brilliant. It's another way to say "try being an economic powerhouse during wartime without maritime trade". President Biden deserves credit for the agreement. Extra points for upsetting France. (joke).
Other Asian countries in the region, such as Japan, India and South Korea, should stand together and ensure the security of Taiwan, resist potential Chinese expansion in the region, and secure their shipping lanes. It shouldn't be an American project. If Asian countries are not willing to stand up for Taiwan, then why should U.S. be so eager to do it?
Because we should keep our promises even if they are not in our best interest. After WWII, Japan demilitarized itself with the understanding that the US would protect its interests. South Korea has a strong military, but that is because it has partnered with the US. The Philippines also relies on the US for military support. And, fortunately, the partnerships have been mutually beneficial and it is in our best interest to protect Taiwan. Taiwan is a democracy and an important trading partner. Are we going to just stand by and do nothing if some aggressor nation decides to gobble it up?
@@abananabag I do not mean we should stand by, but we should act in a role that is supportive of Asian countries who are going to lead the effort to contain China, because it is in their interest to do it. We should make it clear that we are not going to do it for them, but will support them if they lead the effort. If they do not have a belief that U.S. will maintain stability in their region for them, they are going to be forced to re-evaluate their policies and lead that effort themselves. Japan: there were reasons to have Japan demilitarize because of WW2, but at this point it has been too long ago. Japan should remilitarize and defend themselves. We can help them do that, but we should no longer do that FOR them. South Korea: they have a strong military with our help. Good. Japan should do the same. The Philippines: we can provide military support, but they should take on the primary responsibility for defending their own interests, for instance in the South China Sea - and since the Philippines is far smaller than China, it should look to build alliances among it's neighbors who are similarly threatened by China. These countries are not going to make any of these changes if we keep telling them we are just going to maintain stability in their region on our own. So, we must break this psychological reliance by adopting an appearance of a more passive stance.
I think it be wise for the leadership of China to rethink why its global reputation delivers distrust , backing Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine in anyway will only catapult that global reputation well into the future ,'we are not what we know but what we are willing to learn"comes to mind
The lesson to be learned here for countries who rely on allies to support them when push comes to shove is you can’t count on them going the distance. Maybe the North Koreans have the right approach: have your own nukes.
War is no more an option for China's future than it was one for Russia. China, among all nations, needs to cooperate with a world it depends on for trade. Africa will not make up for a loss of trade relations with the West, should China decide to become an outcast. This does, unfortunately, not reflect properly in Xi's mind. He wants to leave his mark on the world, just like Putin. Let's hope he won't.
What a joke! the whole of Asia depends on trade with China, just like the West! if you think the Ukraine was a problem, wait until a war with china, it will pretty much economically destroy the world, wake up and learn something.
This was a fascinating view of someone who thinks he knows what he knows and ignores all evidence that does not fit. To say China's military actions are essentially performative is to ignore ignore the very aggressive Chinese Naval (labeled Coast Guard) actions in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Day by day it is getting more violent as China seems to be trying to decide how far it can go without triggering the Philippine defense pact with the USA. It wants to know if the USA really has the stomach to face off with China. There are some in China who don't think the USA has the stomach... yes the USA is sending arms to Ukraine, but not its own men. Such thinking is still part of how they see the USA. China wants to cut off US and other nation's international navigation to the south of the Taiwan Straight as a prelude to an invasion of Taiwan. This gentleman's view that China worries about their relationship with the USA is wishful thinking,or, less charitably, he has been lulled into complacency by intentional Chinese misdirection. By focusing on Taiwan and not seeing the entire region as all connected, a chess board, he has made startling bad assumptions.
The US Navy has continued to sail through China's supposed "7-dash line" to keep the shipping lanes open, so I'd be surprised if anyone in the Chinese military actually wonders if the USA has the stomach. China is as aware as we are that in war games simulations Taiwan wins in every potential showdown, as long as America shows up for the fight.
China isn't going to invade Taiwan. If you think Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted World Trade it would pale in comparison of what would happen if China invaded Taiwan. China depends on World Trade to support it's already fragile economy with the Real Estate mess that they are in. That World Trade would drop to ZERO if they invade Taiwan. Because Taiwan makes 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Not to mention costing a million young men they need. China's population is aging fast because of the one child policy they had for years.
It's worth keeping in mind that China doesn't matter. The CCP as a whole barely matters. No one cares about them. Only the CCP's leadership matters. It'll happen when the cost to the CCP's leadership of not doing it is greater than the cost of not doing it. Unless by the time that crossover is reached, things are so bad that it's seen as nothing more than a cyclical ploy to distract people from all the other problems.
Nothing says success like being surrounded by "yes men" ....
Poor Winnie the Xi Jinpooh.
Always a good interview from Kate. She asks the right questions, and let's the person answer without interrupting with her own thoughts.
- “...and let's the person answer without interrupting with her own thoughts.”
It’s a very good interview, indeed. About interruptions, it’s not difficult to have an interview without those in the format where you get to choose the ones you interview, and they come to present their expert analysis, not for example to promote a political agenda. The questions are also presented beforehand, so the interviewee knows how much time he has to answer each question.
Joel Wuthnow was also a very good one as an interviewee. He stuck to the format and the schedule, and in effect took care of the interruptions himself. It was easy to see that he could have given (and probably would have liked to give) a much longer and deeper answer to every question, but he stuck to the plan. Hadn’t he done so, and the interviewee had to interrupt him, some people would undoubtedly have commented angrily here, without understanding that many interesting questions that we all are now glad to know Wuthnow’s answer to were left out because of the interviewee did not stick to the plan. Gladly Wuthnow did, and we could enjoy an interview were there’s the right balance between depth and coverage.
Taiwan will be in ruins like Ukraine
Taiwan isn’t ‘sliding’ towards independence; Taiwan has been independent for over 7 damn decades!!
but still not excepted as a country, the UN the US and the West state Taiwan is China and China is it's Government, it is called one China, as usual the US speaks out from it's mouth and it's backside .. mostly the latter.
thought they work for america? tbh not sure any small countries can function independently, autonomous as in we or someone owns you but not any real obligations on our side, and thing is china and america in a custody battle lol cant claim independence when you're dependent on trade and assistance, securing food, securing power, ect, most independent countries fall into a category of being owned by one of 3-4 world powers, who i feel work together to profit off the others. if your part of the u.n you know who your masters are, if not theres other options, and tbh most independent nations get wrecked eventually, if they cant hold their own, eather by the powers that be, or because they powers that be allow you to be. they dont always gotta push you off the cliff if they just refuse helping you when youre hanging from it. i mean, who makes the rules? tbh most i see as just children negotiating allowances or pets doing some trick for a biscuit, thats independence tho eh? the division just makes it easier for proxy wars without the main powers feeling much obligation and as i said dont gotta push em off the cliff if theyre hanging from it. produce items, justify war, potentially fight wars and buy our weapons and materials, ect, youre " independent" cuz its profitable in some way. taxation is just the evolution of warlords plundering villages, more profitable, less damage so quicker returns, human nature tho, you can see the same stuff expressed in gangs and extortion, and why the whole "working together" or "for the good of society " thing is always pushed so much, if the people you rob are happy you robbed them, makes it easier to repeat, same reason war on drugs was never won, too profitable for those that could have done something about it, and people dont mind being robbed and poisoned, because thats how little most people enjoy their existences, the real powers are literally dying by treating everyone else as equals and when they fall everyone gets crushed, so yeah majority of countries, not independent, if we didnt buy yours stuff, or defend or supply tools to defend how long would most last? how often do problems happen the second you start becoming self sufficient?
@@ryanluna7322 Wow you're conflating a lot there. If requiring assistance to feed you population means you're not independent than a lot of major powers, including China, aren't. Independence doesn't mean you can do whatever, whenever, with no consequences. It means you can decide if those consequences are worth it. Don't act like having critical imports and living under a totalitarian regime are the same thing.
"If you're part of the U.N. you know who you're masters are," China and Russia are part of the UN, they only ones who aren't are Vatican City, Saudi Arabia, or are almost completely unrecognized as nations. The UN has no control over anyone, unless they specifically agree, by design. There's no requirement to join, and no penalty for leaving, other than having no vote and trouble getting back in.
"Taxation is just the evolution of warlords plundering villages," no. When a society passes 150 people in population you hit an issue, smaller than that, everyone knows everyone else. But people can only have about 150 relationships with other people, due to the size of the human brain. If your society is small enough that everyone knows everyone else, than any need society has gets filled due to social pressure, everyone sacrifices because if they don't they lose their standing. In a society of thousands, everyone slips through and nothing gets done. Infrastructure on the scale necessary for a industrial society, with things like electricity, plumbing, waste management, roads, ect., you need to spend money/effort well beyond what any one person can give, and coordination likewise impossible for a single person. Without taxes, you can't build a society large enough to provide anything like that. Yes, some gets misused, and people steal some, but they get punished if they get caught. Before you start, I'm talking tax money, campaign funds and donations have different rules, on purpose.
"How often do problems happen the second you start becoming self-sufficient?" name one place that can be considered self-sufficient by your standards. Specialization of work means that people learn different advanced skills. Go into the woods, see how long you last. Don't take any tools you didn't make, with materials you didn't gather, and knowledge someone didn't give you. If you want anything better than that, you need other people.
U do realize the moment Taiwan declare its independence is exactly the moment when the CCP will strike right
@@yeshong4319 That's why everyone keeps their mouths shut and lets China play pretend, as long as they stay off the island.
TAIWAN IS AN IDEPENDANT COUNTRY, just LIKE TIBET ONLY TIBET IS ILLEGALLY OCCUPIED, TAIWAN IS STILL FREE.
China? You mean West Taiwan?
exactly!
More like West Korea
2023 First sign of Chinese economic decline as housing market collapses.
2024 The great exodus begins as Western manufacturing starts leaving the Chinese market.
2025 China crackdown on unemployed youth movement demanding a political voice.
2026 Massive civil unrest in China as millions of unemployed Chinese protest job loses.
2027 Civil war in China as communist regime send troops to put down protesters.
2028 President Xi arrested in Chinese army coup.
2029 Cross nation referendum held to unite mainland China and Taiwan.
2030 Taiwanese president officially becomes president of United China.
North Taiwan 😋
sorry to say, but the phrase is at least as accurate as China's claim. Xi like Putin is using the idea that because they have some Chinese genetics (with a lot of mixing since the 40s), they are Chinese, so the place must be CHINESE. Actually Mao was focused on taking the island but could never make it happen
Kate, you ask good questions - well done, keep up the energy and get us the information we need. Cheers
I like your channel. Good work!
What does 50 Cent call himself in Russia?
50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 rubles
🤣
Ruble now worth exactly .00 USD😂
lol
Good one. 😂😂😂
Jobby Campbell
Ha Ha, this is great.
God save Taiwan . Be strong and determined to fight for freedom and independence.Our prayers always be with you.
Yeah, cos god and prayers will help won't they.. 🥴
God save the World. If war breaks out in Taiwan there will be a very high possibility for a WW3. If WW3 breaks out im almost certain we'll be all doomed.
our prayers and sh*tloads of arms. The buildup of bases in the Phillipines is going full steam.
"speak softly and carry a big stick" - Theodore Roosevelt
So using religion to justify killing on mass. Soooo American!
Yes, and look how it turned out for Ukraine; more weapons, more resources, more human life...but whatever keeps the media bullshitte mill turning out a good campfire story to brainwash future generations with right?
If China remains on good terms with the US, then they can enjoy their status as Asia's economic powerhouse and get former Soviet republics to form strong economic bonds. That would be far better for everyone involved than any sort of conflict.
They can get manchuria back as well
That wouldn't give Xi the kudos he's looking for as the person who added Taiwan to the PRC.
except that - like every Dictator (including Khulio) when the issues at home get too big, and your corruption precludes any chance of sorting things out, the only choice is to pretend everyone is against you, make a load of propaganda up about how the country is being stifled by foreigners, and then start a war. China is rapidly loosing out to the likes of India in that continent and beyond. When that decline hits the population to the point they dare to start to grumble, then Chinese leadership will start a war.
his problems are domestic. The Western media doesn't much cover what is happening in China, their economy is systemically flawed and hundreds of millions (Some say china only actually has 900 million people but that is still a huge number) of middle class and upper middle class chinese are about to get roasted over the fire and lose literally everything, just before they retire in a decade (there are no social programs in china whatsoever- no healthcare, no money for retirees outside of the money they save and call a pension- which incidentally the accounts are being literally just taken by banks that are about to fail.. the average chinese has zero power against the powerful, the courts are rubber stamps for the rich, so Xi is rightfully worried about a mass uprising. Not to mention the difficulty transforming to a consumer based economy when everyone is getting so old....
🎶I wanna know what love is!!! I want ye tae show meeeeeeeeeeee!!!
Invasion from the sea against a shore harbouring a determined and prepared foe needs enormous resources and would entail massive losses in men, material and treasure. Chinese preparations for an invasion would be seen for months ahead of time. If the gamble fails then China may be wounded fatally. A likely return to being a second-rate power is a strong possibility as Chinese demography slowly unwinds and their export economy is destroyed.
They don't want to decimate Taiwan. Russia will try to steamroll Ukraine just like Syria.
China is already a second-rate power, despite their protestations to the contrary. Given their political system it is certain that their military performance would fall far, far short of their propaganda, which the west seems to believe, just as Russia fooled the West.
Same could be said of Putins invasion of Ukraine and Russia being reduced to a poor country with a chronic demographic problem because of a failed invasion.
Putins invasion is failing because the Ukrainian citizens refuse to surrender.
Same would likely be said about the Taiwanese if they refuse to surrender.
The British see China as a Totalitarian State and the experience of Hong Kong and the Covid has confirmed it . Slava Ukraini and Independent Taiwan
True. In a simulation the US lost an aircraft carrier but ultimately China lost. Islands of this size are notoriously hard to conquer, hence why the UK has been impregnable for centuries and one of the reasons the US loves it so much as an ally - the ultimate staging post 👍
War has great risks. It seems to me, that peace is a much better option.
Why do we not call it what it is, it is the CCP not China, we shoukd be clearly defining the two, I think this would help as it takes away the nationalist view of the west against the chjnese people. This only supports nationalism which can be very strong properganda for the CCP.
Its China. 2+2=4, there are only two genders .. Men cant have babies ...countries need secured borders ...
Perhaps, but do you not think the CCP can get the Chinese there with unrelenting nationalist propaganda? It's a totalitarian surveillance state at twice Moskou's efficiency. Just look at what Pootin can achieve in a few years, Russians are willing to destroy themselves for imaginary threats and imperialism.
Can Winnie the Pooh achieve any of his military goals with the Chinese economy coming apart at the seams?
Manchuria, is ripe if he has any sense
The economy is failing, yet they have plenty of money for infrastructure, wars, expansion...
RIP zombieland tent city's amurdeca ❤😂🎉😢😮😅😊
@@waichong9389
RIP
Winnie the poo👉⚰️😀
@@tonupharryManchuria? All trans-Ural Russia is ripe!
This would also solve the USA and Europe's fears of rogue region's with nuclear weapons.
Begin normalization of relations with Taiwan, Japan and the west will only grumble deep concerns.
Throw in the fall of North Corea regime - all will come with congratulations.
23:13 - Kate, your expression, happy & satisfied, as you wrap up this great interview says it all! You’re like a talented chef who has just prepared a great meal for a good friend 😅
He's wrong in the sense that he (and many in the west) think that Xi and the rocket force and the military speak with one voice and no major dissent in the Rocket Force and amonst Xi's aids or corruption in the senior leadership of the PLA, PLA navy. Couple all of the fact that the Chinese military hasn't been engaged in actual live combat since the wars against Vietnam in 1979 or 1991.
and a TOFU army, cant wait for it to meltdown...
And China lost.
He is just a pentagon mouthpiece spewing propaganda
I liked the rumour that there was a plot to shoot down Xi's plane after BRICS conference causing him to divert and get the train back 🤣
@@LoremIpsum1970 I'm sure there were plans to (I have no information on that, just a hunch). Xi was also troubled by that nuclear sub near Taiwan than had a gas leak.
She does excellent interviews. I enjoy watching all of them.
She doesn't interrupt people like most of the Time Radio presenters.
wow everyone is tooling up, can't imaging the mess afterwards. who can afford to pick up the pieces after the party???
0:11: 💡 China is cautious about showing its sensitive capabilities to Russia and being seen as a military ally, while also maintaining relations with Europe and the United States.
3:50: 🔍 There is a problem with corruption in China, causing a lack of confidence in senior military leadership.
6:55: 💰 China prioritizes spending on security forces despite negative GDP growth during the pandemic.
10:20: 💢 China is engaging in a coercive campaign to pressure Taiwan into not pursuing independence and to deter the United States from supporting Taiwan during its upcoming election in January.
13:57: 🌍 China's global reach and influence pose risks to military access and privileges for the United States and its allies.
17:06: 🔍 There is inconclusive evidence of a major fatal submarine accident in 2003 and the existence of chain traps for submarines is uncertain.
20:19: 🌐 China and Russia engage in performative military exercises, but are cautious about revealing sensitive capabilities and being seen as military allies.
Recap by Tammy AI
thx Chat GPT!
Cute, but why bother with this? We already know that AI gives results which are quick, easy, and subtly wrong. For example, the expert was saying that China's 2003 submarine accident is well documented, unlike the current rumors which have not yet been substantiated.
West is corrupt from head to toe. China is most powerful, most influential, most innovative country in this planet right now. It hasn't reached this stage being corrupt. You are lying. West talks corrupt, walks corrupt, even their evil laughter is corrupt.
THERE ARE NO WINNERS IN ANY OF THIS. EVERYBODY LOSES!
au contraire, the CCP are just trying to maintain power at any cost. If half the country dies they will...
The Military Industrial Complex would like a word.... But this is senseless indeed
WW3 goodbye world
Oh now, don't be such a downer.
Theyre prob not friends but what putins done has set a bad example and i hope ping is much smarter for it...
Oh, he's certainly smarter for it. That's why Xi gave Vlad the green light to invade at Beijing Olympics. Knowledge is power.
Get some rest, Kate!
The Chinese navy launches a fraction of the sorties from a carrier compared to the US, and they don't even do any nighttime training sorties. Not ready for prime time.
But the US fighting a War at sea from 7000 miles away is Prime?
@@lesterquintrell4844 - It fights at sea, in the air *and* on land in far away places for sustained periods. Who else can do that? (Nobody.)
China has an advantage in distributed lethality over America in an area denial environment. It has a numerically superior naval force but it is only half the tonnage .. It has a large surface fleet of destroyers ,2 carriers ,a good mix of nuclear and conventional submarines ,the world's first Ballistic ASHM and 128 houbei missile boats that pack 8 subsonic ASHMs each . This set up is more than good enough if America doesn't fight in a way that plays to America's strengths.
@@louisbabycos106 - Try this for area denial: China relies on imports of food, fuel, etc. (and on exports to earn money). China invades Taiwan; USA blockades The Strait of Malacca, The Gulf of Hormuz, etc.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.
CCP must go
no room for dictators in 2023
That's the Chinese people's business, not ours. My country has been very successful in recovering from Communist rule exactly because we overthrew it ourselves at a moment we chose ourselves. We were ready to build something different. The Chinese might not be yet. But this doesn't mean we shouldn't prevent China from causing suffering abroad, of course.
no its not dictators don't get a say they dont want their people to have a say they dont get a say@@martavdz4972
This is very informative. Thank you
Dear Kate, A large sheet of Polystyrine just to the left of camera would fill the shadows (Dark sie of face) and lower the key lightand add a little more diffusion (Frost or Trace) sorrry to be so interfering but I eagerly look forward to your interviews (I used to do this for a living on commercials). sorry X.
Also, the overhead light in the chap's room is annoying to my eyes.
Very knowledgable guest. Thank-you.
Good morning Kate.
Exactly 👍
Russia is a massive exporter of food and fuel. China is the world's biggest importer of both. The USA does not need to engage China directly. All the USA needs to do is impose a complete naval blockade. And wait.
But Russia can import stuff to China by land, I don't understand the point of the naval blockade...?
@@martavdz4972 issues of cost and volume. And land transport is much easier to target. If PRC invades ROC, first thing to die will be pipelines from Russia to PRC.
great questions....
Learn all you can from the mistakes of others. You won't have time to make them all yourself.
Easier said than done you can't feel someone else's pain
God is a concept, by which we measure our pain
China has never in its modern history taken on a peer level adversary in military conflict. Not only that, they’ve never played any part whatsoever in a peer level military conflict. They would do well to remember that before they seriously consider taking on the United States, and its powerful, and very modern, military allies in the western Pacific.
Count your joys instead of your woes. Count your friends instead of your foes.
As someone who actually has experience with Communists (grew up in a Communist country and spent 2 months in a children's spa that was more like prison): good luck with this attitude. The last thing you need is underestimate them.
A dumpling DUCK is a chinas best friend
Excellent article, filled in many gaps in my understanding.
Time for the ROC to take the mainland back!
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
When you see this many views of a very unimpressive video you can bet it's being promoted by state interests.
The problems with hypersonic missiles is that they have to slow down to mach 3 to detect and attack a target at which point they can be shot down.
Hypersonic missiles hype is very much hyped up. 😉
Russia keeps on talking about their ability, but they are not the only ones having those. Putin just spills the beans all the time when he feels to threaten the world.
It doesn't take long to find out about anti-missile weaponry to see the truth about hypersonics.
Can't out run the speed of light. LASERs Baby.
Say what you want there is no nation on earth w the amount of combat experience the US has from the last 20 years…having said that Ukraine is now the cutting edge of what warfare will be moving forward…
Ukraine war not really cutting edge.
The USA has many surprise weapons!
@@garyeuscher4499 in terms of new types of warfare
I'm not entirely sure about that, Ukraine is fighting Russia which definitely isn't cutting edge in some areas. It is in electronic warfare, but not in tanks and missiles.
My point was in terms of some new tactics…drones
The submarine accident did happen.
Excellent!!
No war between china n taiwan taiwam is belong to china ok
I would add that China, by refocusing on military fundamentals, is keeping its options open to benefit from fallout from the Russia/Ukraine war, preparing for the weakening, or even possibly, the breakup of Russia. Supporting ex-Soviet republics may provide significant benefits in terms of the Belt and Road initiative as well as long standing territorial claims to greater Manchuria.
Yeah agree
Firstly, Wuthnow handled this interview well and you should draw on his expertise further. If Xi believes that PLAN is not ready to assimilate Taiwan and is concerned that the military and people of China need some form of "dress rehersal" for assertions of power, is that not in fact what is going on in the South Asia Sea today?
Not really. China's going to need to experience a bit more adventurism than they have so far.
If I was China, I'd try doing some joint operations (anti-terrorism, etc.) with the US. Or barring that, maybe try some rebel-supressing of their own in Pakistan or wherever that might be needed.
China really needs to get some hands-on fighting experience if they're ever gonna really know if they're ready for The Big One.
I still am of the opinion that the Chinese military is at most half as good as the Russian military. China's one test of bravery failed in South Sudan in 2016. Russia has a lot of flaws but cowardice isn't one of them. Russia has also actually seen combat since 1979. Taiwan actually trains with forces that have seen combat. Chinese forces landing on the shores of Taiwan will probably be killed before they have time to surrender. So many Chinese ships will be sunk after the first landing that odds are slim that they will even be able to pull off a second landing.
Russia can't take out a Country on flat land that they can drive to, who are just now getting F-16s. Yet I'm supposed to believe China can successfully take over a mountainous Country across water, that already has F-16s (110), Mirages (45), M1s, Pattons, Apaches, SuperCobras, Chinooks, Black Hawks, plus 98 ships including 4 destroyers and 4 submarines.
And all of this is completely ignoring the USA, UK, Japan, and Australia.
Hello. Chinese will catch much of that Air Force on the ground-they are ahoy going to telegraph an attack exact time.
@@johnwhite2576, really? Biden told all of us a week before Russia attacked that Russia was going to attack. You think China will be able to put together a massive amphibious force without the US knowing? You think Taiwan doesn't have SAM missile batteries? Russia can't even fly over Ukraine and you're saying China is going to fly over Taiwan? Russia had 4,000 fighter jets, China has 2,500.
Missing from the mosaic of weaponry you list is a credible nuclear armamentarium. With not terribly many well-chosen nuclear weapons, Taiwan would potentially assure the preservation of their independence against a China that could ill-afford the damage and horrors of a sophisticated nuclear strike. Of course, they may be simultaneously inviting from China's direction complete annihilation of Taiwan's compact country. But if Taiwan formed a nuclear capability with secrecy and deniability, said as much of nothing about their efforts as possible, and were shrewd as to that capability's configuration, the somewhat insecure security like that of the DPRK and that of Israel may be possible. If a generous secret donor nation gave Taiwan the capability overnight, no messy development related issues to conceal, say in the form of a well equipped submarine parked with brilliance and twenty MIRV'D missiles, well, Taiwan suddenly would become formidable indeed, if it were to continue to strengthen substantially further its conventional military forces, all of which it appears the Taiwanese could afford if at present they are deploying only two percent of their current GDP toward fielding their military.
Hmm...
[Denver, Colorado]
@@johnwhite2576 right! Taiwan doesn't have any Radar and the US doesn't share spy Sat images with them.
@@arthurpowers3724, you are right. It's why we need treaties like NATO, so that every Country that is in danger doesn't build nukes.
Peter Zeihan says that Taiwan could build a nuke over the weekend.
What I do not understand about TAIWAN is their military spending level -under 2% of their GDP. Makes no sense in light of the coming war.
Because youve been fed with the wrong narrative all this time.. srsly anyone whos bothered to take the time to dive deeper into the issue than receiving ye daily dose of murikan journalism would know that relationships between Taiwan and 'China' has always been a much more delicate matter than 'a Great power seeking to assert its influence over its smaller neighbor' or ' a supposed geopolitical scapegoat, diversion tactics' .. the whole idea of a sovereign Taiwan has always been built upon the cooperation of KMT(former nationalist party that fled to the ex-japanese colony and reintroduced a period of military dictatorship, until its power was bargained away to the ppl again and ) and the CCP, on the ground of a ONE CHINA principle , two systems(or two china, wotever) , but that in turn means Taiwan MUST designate itself as China, hence the ROC and PROC, TAIWAN and CHINA.. and thus the significance of HK as a testing ground, or Sinkiang .ahem ahem* ask any taiwanese or hker , we indeed hate CCP to the bone for their past records but that doesnt translate to allowing foreign powers stepping on our territories unhindred *ahem canadian warship ahem ahem or in the case of Hongkong, to be sacrificed as a chess piece in the western-led world order ... one evil hardly justify another.. especially seeing how the US could throw anyone over the bus after Afghan und Ukraine. if u ask me (as a HKer) honestly dun k whats the fuss 's about, it has always been an internal conflict over which political system suits better for the boarder Chinese ethnic state, and was never supposed to be thrown into board daylight for any outsider to step in and add their two cents.. imagine the CCP being a vocal adversary on the northern Ireland issues against the UK and send a fleet to guaranteen scottish independce.. how would that make u feel? as for the taiwanese, they ve been standing guard for (the idea of) a democratic china over 70 years... the incompetence of the PLA plus the existing forts and agreement in place .. and mostly the economic consequence is enough deterrence for an invasion..
Two percent may not seem like much but it does incur a cost . Going higher than 2 percent for a long duration would impact other priorities that Taiwan has .
@@louisbabycos106 Nonsense!
@@richardbayer5702
Before the onset of Ukrainian Russian war and despite Trump pushing NATO countries to obligate to a 2 percent standard ,NATO members were loathe to reach the 2 percent GDP threshold. This was largely due to European countries having different priorities than America does . 2 percent GDP was scoffed at by the Europeans but hopefully by now it is the accepted norm .
If China just relaxes 100 years from now would not be surprised if Taiwan naturally merges with mainland China with half the population it has now
Correlation of forces doesn't quite favour the PLA over Taiwan - yet. So Comrade Xi will hold back until he calculates he can win.
With what's happening in the world at the moment with other countries invading others . Why wouldn't it be a good time for China to jump on the bandwagon and go for Taiwan ?
I couldn't believe what I hear from your so called expert saying that, in general, politics in China is very stable... What! Has he been hiding in Mars?
It's not a clamp down on corruption. It's an internal power struggle within the CCP. This so called expert will look foolish when proof of the submarine disaster is found. He seems to be star stuck by Xi. The greatest threat to the CCP comes from within.
Thank you both for providing valuable insights 🙂
Why isn't the interviewer properly credited in the video description above?
Interesting interview, but I wish that the expert had focused more on the rank and file than speculating on the thinking of the Rulers.
I would like to hear more about the effect of reforms of the practice of paying for promotions for example, so please invite him back soon.
Good idea, agreed ☺️
Emperor Ming plays the long game. Tough customers playing real war games.
The speaker's academic qualifications are very impressive.
Maybe he could talk more about his on the ground experiences in military exchanges etc? I would like to learn more about his practical experience as well as all his academic achievements.
He’s talking about strategic perspectives and geopolitics. The average infantry grunt doesn’t focus on this stuff
@@Serching4JerryGarcia Average infantry grunts are not the kind of military personnel that get invited on military exchanges. They are not the kind that I meet anyway.
Rank and file in PLA miiltary terms means employees, as the PLA works on the herbalife model. The more money you kick up to your superiors, the faster you get promotion. To not talk about this is ridiculous.
Finally, he repeatedly said that he did not believe that there was a sub accident.
The 5 Eyes. That would be a cool movie title. A 5-eyed space monster comes to Earth, and sees things.
It was called four eyes back in the day
China will not only battle taiwan but Japan, Australia, South Korea, Phillipines and the U.S.
And Indonesia, and Malaysia, and Singapore, and Vietnam, and Thailand, and a number of Pacific islands nations. China has tried to claim territory or otherwise tried to interfere or intimidate each of the nations you and I have listed here.
All these talks of war would probably cease if the politicians and leaders were to lead the charge
Dr Jones is really a candid, knowledgeable, informative, and pertinent specialist in China topic!
they aren't enemies either
Good point about overseas trading partners. Some surprising countries seem to have more Chinese businesses inside than their people know.
Naaa ,they sent ammo.
Gaza is not captive or a prison. There is a significant border with Egypt and half of gaza is the sea.
That is a very smart move for Xi
"The PLA regarded RF Army as equals"
Imagine Xi asking them now: "are we??"
SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦
There was a failed assassination attempt.
Putin and his "Kyiv in 3 day" just looked the fool, I'm not surprised
Be nice if US and China could be on same side and help end major crisis.
Could you just not go to war though?
😂😂😂😂Tofu dregs, drones, vessels and their overall military, this must be a joke, THANK YOU! THE US WILL WIPE THE FLOOR WITH THEM
that is the point. Xi will only do it if he is imminently going to be overrun by the Chinese People....
Ok to lock them between the water and the valley
Low volume
The AUKUS agreement was brilliant. It's another way to say "try being an economic powerhouse during wartime without maritime trade".
President Biden deserves credit for the agreement.
Extra points for upsetting France. (joke).
China had a one child policy that produced millions of young men. Now, they have to employ them while dealing with a drastic reduction in exports.
Thiis makes nio sense. If Xi is preparing to invade Taiwan he would move closer to Putin.
Boycott China for supplying drones to Russia 😮
Notice the term , ' I think..' 😂
Are the Chinese people pumped up for world conquest? This is key for the PLA.
Other Asian countries in the region, such as Japan, India and South Korea, should stand together and ensure the security of Taiwan, resist potential Chinese expansion in the region, and secure their shipping lanes. It shouldn't be an American project. If Asian countries are not willing to stand up for Taiwan, then why should U.S. be so eager to do it?
Because we should keep our promises even if they are not in our best interest. After WWII, Japan demilitarized itself with the understanding that the US would protect its interests. South Korea has a strong military, but that is because it has partnered with the US. The Philippines also relies on the US for military support. And, fortunately, the partnerships have been mutually beneficial and it is in our best interest to protect Taiwan. Taiwan is a democracy and an important trading partner. Are we going to just stand by and do nothing if some aggressor nation decides to gobble it up?
@@abananabag I do not mean we should stand by, but we should act in a role that is supportive of Asian countries who are going to lead the effort to contain China, because it is in their interest to do it. We should make it clear that we are not going to do it for them, but will support them if they lead the effort. If they do not have a belief that U.S. will maintain stability in their region for them, they are going to be forced to re-evaluate their policies and lead that effort themselves.
Japan: there were reasons to have Japan demilitarize because of WW2, but at this point it has been too long ago. Japan should remilitarize and defend themselves. We can help them do that, but we should no longer do that FOR them.
South Korea: they have a strong military with our help. Good. Japan should do the same.
The Philippines: we can provide military support, but they should take on the primary responsibility for defending their own interests, for instance in the South China Sea - and since the Philippines is far smaller than China, it should look to build alliances among it's neighbors who are similarly threatened by China.
These countries are not going to make any of these changes if we keep telling them we are just going to maintain stability in their region on our own. So, we must break this psychological reliance by adopting an appearance of a more passive stance.
Oh my God another World War
*China distances from Putin...*
"That's good!"
*...as Xi prepares for potential war over Taiwan*
"That's bad..."
I think it be wise for the leadership of China to rethink why its global reputation delivers distrust , backing Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine in anyway will only catapult that global reputation well into the future ,'we are not what we know but what we are willing to learn"comes to mind
Does Kate ever have time to relax on the bench behind her?
The lesson to be learned here for countries who rely on allies to support them when push comes to shove is you can’t count on them going the distance. Maybe the North Koreans have the right approach: have your own nukes.
Does NK really have it’s own nukes? They might be Russian with a sticker on the side.
and signed up allies. Buy nukes.
@@Dave5843-d9m good point, where did NK obtain the Uranium? Do they have the refining equipment?
They could buy it from Russia for many raw resources they have. Like how China purchased it from the ussr.
North Korea will no exist without China. Just saying…
War is no more an option for China's future than it was one for Russia. China, among all nations, needs to cooperate with a world it depends on for trade. Africa will not make up for a loss of trade relations with the West, should China decide to become an outcast. This does, unfortunately, not reflect properly in Xi's mind. He wants to leave his mark on the world, just like Putin. Let's hope he won't.
What a joke! the whole of Asia depends on trade with China, just like the West! if you think the Ukraine was a problem, wait until a war with china, it will pretty much economically destroy the world, wake up and learn something.
@@lesterquintrell4844yes and most companies are leaving china and china is economically reliant on the west
CHINA number one....🤗❤️🇨🇳👍.
China Considers
They Had No Other Way,
I Sense Their Feelings,
They Wanted To Prove The Whole World They Are Just As Great As The Greatest!
China doesn't tell outsides anything so you are only guessing to a certain degree
One crazy to the next crazy. This is the normal lately. Everyone is taking turns taking out the innocent. 😢
All this time I thought her name was “mikay gerbeau”
😂
This was a fascinating view of someone who thinks he knows what he knows and ignores all evidence that does not fit. To say China's military actions are essentially performative is to ignore ignore the very aggressive Chinese Naval (labeled Coast Guard) actions in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Day by day it is getting more violent as China seems to be trying to decide how far it can go without triggering the Philippine defense pact with the USA. It wants to know if the USA really has the stomach to face off with China. There are some in China who don't think the USA has the stomach... yes the USA is sending arms to Ukraine, but not its own men. Such thinking is still part of how they see the USA. China wants to cut off US and other nation's international navigation to the south of the Taiwan Straight as a prelude to an invasion of Taiwan. This gentleman's view that China worries about their relationship with the USA is wishful thinking,or, less charitably, he has been lulled into complacency by intentional Chinese misdirection. By focusing on Taiwan and not seeing the entire region as all connected, a chess board, he has made startling bad assumptions.
Agreed. History keeps telling us when a nation rapidly builds outsized military capability, it's not just for show.
Unfortunately, I have to agree.
The US Navy has continued to sail through China's supposed "7-dash line" to keep the shipping lanes open, so I'd be surprised if anyone in the Chinese military actually wonders if the USA has the stomach. China is as aware as we are that in war games simulations Taiwan wins in every potential showdown, as long as America shows up for the fight.
The elders will sort him out or dispose. Anyway Xi is a wise man. He will influence N.k. too.
future its in month, weeks or year....
china feels first time reaction from philippines, vietnam also in south china sea!
getting paranoid and need a war to show strenght?
"Problem set"😂 Is this a freshman homework club?
Might Xi feel demographic pressure?
China isn't going to invade Taiwan. If you think Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted World Trade it would pale in comparison of what would happen if China invaded Taiwan. China depends on World Trade to support it's already fragile economy with the Real Estate mess that they are in. That World Trade would drop to ZERO if they invade Taiwan. Because Taiwan makes 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Not to mention costing a million young men they need. China's population is aging fast because of the one child policy they had for years.
It's worth keeping in mind that China doesn't matter. The CCP as a whole barely matters. No one cares about them.
Only the CCP's leadership matters.
It'll happen when the cost to the CCP's leadership of not doing it is greater than the cost of not doing it.
Unless by the time that crossover is reached, things are so bad that it's seen as nothing more than a cyclical ploy to distract people from all the other problems.
They have a "surplus" of 35 million men.
A war not making sense doesn't mean it won't be started.
not