How do you input the schedule and the scores? I tried to use the files from pro football reference and the way it inputs the schedule does not sort the teams from home or away, it only sorts it by winner and loser so I cannot implement home and away advantages.
Could u theoretically change the x axis value. For example could you use yards gained per point as a rating? So say it takes team XX to go 14 yards to score a point. Then their rating is 14 for offense. Or is that not feasible in this example and is already somewhat worked in to the y axis?
you absolutely could do that. You need to try different stats to see if you can find something that gives a high enough R squared to make it worth betting.
Absolutely. If you have the right data you might come up with a useful projection and then use poisson to find the probability of that prop hitting. Check out the poisson video in the Sharp academy on the app at Sharp.app
The model shown is very simple. The way to win at sports betting, if you are using models, is to figure out what is important that may not be priced into the line. That is getting more difficult to do in sports like the NFL and NBA. Props and smaller sports are where you can find the best edge nowadays.
My god this is a blessing. I was thinking about adding temperature to my spread sheet for my football
Let us know if you find anything good!
Been using linear algebra to handicap nba games I need a little more time with this but I see it will show you the game spread and winner.
Hell yes I will. I’m going home after work to add and run it. This is the only reason I’m learning excel 😂😂😂😂
How do you input the schedule and the scores? I tried to use the files from pro football reference and the way it inputs the schedule does not sort the teams from home or away, it only sorts it by winner and loser so I cannot implement home and away advantages.
I keep track of every game on a spreadsheet. I update it on Tuesdays. There are other sites where you can just download that data.
where did you get the power ratings?
sharp.app/nfl-power-rankings/statsational-2023-nfl-championship-game-power-rankings-super-bowl-projections
Could u theoretically change the x axis value. For example could you use yards gained per point as a rating? So say it takes team XX to go 14 yards to score a point. Then their rating is 14 for offense. Or is that not feasible in this example and is already somewhat worked in to the y axis?
you absolutely could do that. You need to try different stats to see if you can find something that gives a high enough R squared to make it worth betting.
With excel theres a limit to the variables you ca use, so after that youd have to use python correct?
That's correct
Could a model like this be used to model game props like punts or field goals made?
Absolutely. If you have the right data you might come up with a useful projection and then use poisson to find the probability of that prop hitting. Check out the poisson video in the Sharp academy on the app at Sharp.app
@@SharpAppSportsBetting will check it out thanks
Wouldn't all this be priced into the opening lines?
The model shown is very simple. The way to win at sports betting, if you are using models, is to figure out what is important that may not be priced into the line. That is getting more difficult to do in sports like the NFL and NBA. Props and smaller sports are where you can find the best edge nowadays.
I dont get it, why do an example on temperature related to icecream sales. Isn't this a pod about sportsbetting model?? what a waste of time..
Did you watch the whole thing?