They'll outlaw it first. According to legend, Alan Turing once sat in a meeting with AT&T execs, and when someone asked him what sort of jobs computers could replace, he said, "Yours." I'm sure I read that somewhere, maybe in the Andrew Hodges biography.
If corporations will be using robots to manufacture loads of stuff then, obviously ,they will want the population to buy that stuff, therefore, an income for all that population is essential for the system to carry on.
Replaceable rechargeable batteries could solve the charging downtime. 1 robot doesn't just replace 1 worker it replaces 4.2 workers. Even if a bot costs $250,000 and last for only 4 years its still cost effective over people. No lunch breaks, no bathroom breaks, no healthcare, no workers comp, no climate control, low water bill, low insurance cost, ect. ........ human labor is doomed.
When it comes to how much more a bot can do compared to a human, it is a lot more than a double shift worth. Even hard working people generally spend a lot of inactive time while working. Humans can not physically work continuously without stopping. Watch any video of people doing physical jobs, and there is a lot of time spent taking micro breaks. Our muscles aren't designed to work non-stop.
CNC Machines will be replacing Operators _ Programmers _ Inspectors. All well paid jobs. Optimus can run two machines simultaneously by swiveling between closely facing machines. One Bot could replace 4 - 5 employees costing about $70/hr each (all-in), and doesn’t even account for human inefficiencies. Putting Optimus in control of automated machines , adds Huge Value to CNC’s and Optimus. Other machines to operate, Wire EDM’s, Water Jet, STL Printers, CMM’s, Stamping presses, EB Welders, etc. Running factories lights out (virtually), will be possible. Cheers from San Diego.
It EXTREMELY worries me especially after the pandemic it has taken me longer than expected to recover! I'm finally back in regular housing again but have been feeling defeated by the job sights now seemingly use AI to scan resumes. I finally have a job lead I went to an interview for but had to use a local temporary agency to help me in. What I worry is that even if I get 10 years out of the job, I don't know let's say by 2030 if my job would become obsolete. So it makes me think now, what jobs are AI Proof!!!
Once they get set up right the robots will build robots 24/7 the good news is things should cost less, the bad news being no-one will have any money to buy the stuff they make !
Imagine watching a movie 5 years from now with humanoid robots in it, but it's not even sci-fi.... kind of like how almost every movie has smart phones in them.
I remember that Elon Musk once said that AI and Robotics would necessitate that government provide basic income to all citizens. To earn more would require a human only skill or to be uniquely creative. As usual good investors would be winners.
@@user-mp2fb9ku5o Well if we all get basic income how will rich people be able to afford their private jets? Think of the private jets mate, think of the private jets that will be without a home.
You must have a very different experience of dealing with “AI” support. I did it very challenging when the AI has no idea what m talking about and is no help but won’t put me through to a human agent, trying to pretend to be human instead. Your video fills me with fear and dread. We should have laws requiring companies to maintain human support that is easily available. If the AI is so good that it’s a better experience than dealing with the human, then so be it, the humans can rest, but I really don’t think we are there yet.
As with all ai this will rapidly improve as adoption increases. Almost all ai phone operators to date have been really dumb ai and shouldn’t be compared to what he is describing.
When was this? My experience is that most AI I've interacted with has had a better comprehension of what I'm saying than most humans, especially when you have non-native speakers that might be using sub-standard technology. The only time you run into problems is when you have issues that fall outside the AI's database which can also be a problem with humans but speaking to humans can generally get you in touch with someone with an answer. An AI programmed to be able to handle just the set of circumstances in the manual and to never pass the call on to a human could just endlessly refuse to provide additional assistance so we need people on backup for that stuff.
The people on phone support are generally not very skilled (i.e. expensive). When I bother to spend 30+ minutes in line to talk to a human, It's because I have a problem that's not easily solved ("Have you tried restarting your Router?"). 9 times out of 10 they have to call in a more skilled coworker. An expert AI system will have far more skill, with zero wait time , and negligible cost.
It's not clear to me yet. For software R&D it could lead to doing more with the same people, doing the same or more with fewer people, or an explosion of new technologies requiring more people. I suspect the last of those scenarios will occur. Time will tell. @@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck
300k tech jobs have been lost over the past couple years. 42k in the past 2 months. What's going to really hit you hard is when the work starts drying up and you go out of business.
Your point is void. Humans was still the smartest thing on the planet back then even if a harvester was invented. Humans won't be the smartest thing anymore, and thus there's no jobs for humans.
Glad I am retired rather than starting my career. ... A typical 8 hour shift today gets 4.5 to 6 hours of 'actual effort' on most jobs I have seen. Yes, there are exceptions. But all together it shows how more efficient machines can be over people. We still need some management, but we won't need the number of layers of management (even check Tesla vs GM or Ford to make cars... I wish I had their numbers). The fear of moving forward was true in my career (accountants wanted to double check numbers from computer accounting systems), the we went to people that should know, not knowing how to do their jobs, but depending on the 'computer did it' excuse for screwups (yes, I got that from a bank manager, ... their interest calculations were way off and the manager could not tell or show me how they calculated interest, using "the computer does it" as her excuse, they did not like my response! ... Yes, I am/was a computer geek so that excuse did not fly.
Damn you said it right there- make a lot more money, make a lot more profits and *potentially* lower our prices. That's why we can't simply rely on business to figure it out.
What good are low prices if a robot took your job and you don't have an income? If you have no money, it doesn't matter if a thing costs $10 or $1,000 , you still can't buy it.
@@danmoyer4650 no doubt about it, but at least initially there's going to be somebody within a family working. So if prices are dropping one income can potentially handle it better than if prices stayed high.
Remember how in Star Trek the Next Generation, they're always asking the ship's computer or data really complicated questions and they always had an answer..... that part!
Humanoid robots in manufacturing are a transitory thing, to work along side humans and use existing structures in the short term. Long term is objects designed to be built by robots in factories designed only for robots, no need for humanoids there.
No need for the junk the robots create either. The paper clip robot would turn itself into a paper clip shortly after turning this guy's wife and dog into a paper clip, since it is more efficient to reach the final conclusion than to go the long route: turning itself into a paper clip after turning the universe into a paper clip.
There are so many open jobs that the bots will take years just to fill those jobs because you have to build them. Also, more likely there will be more work being done since it will become cheaper for the customers to purchase products with the labor cost savings.
The savings in labor cost becomes increased margins and profits, not cost savings in products. Shareholders will only relinquish profits if doing so has a competitive advantage.
@@user-mp2fb9ku5o Problem is rather that US median real wages haven't increased. Real GDP has increased a lot, which should translate to lower real prices. On average this is true, but since all the increase has gone to wealthiest half of the population, at least half of the population get no part in the efficiency increase. It's a political issue, not a technological one. (As a side note: Automation existing doesn't make things cheaper in and of itself, you need efficiency gains in the automation to get the deflationary effect. That's not the issue here, though) Caveat: I'm assuming you're American. If not, just apply your own country's number for real GDP and real median wages.
It's funny to think that in the future, the vast majority of phone calls are going to be between two bots interacting with each other, as though they were both human.
I still maintain the best use of bots in the early stage will be bots assembling bots, at that point it is more a matter of logistics making sure the bots have all the pieces available to build more bots.
"As a business owner I can sell things cheaper than my competition and make a lot more profits..." Sell things to whom? If we don't implement something like UBI or some other solution, there will be no wage earners to buy anything.
Right on point. The general population (not in tech) does not seem to be paying attention to advances in AI at all, and these changes are going to seem like they came out of nowhere. We'll see a race by companies to eliminate labor costs, increasing value to shareholders rather than reducing consumer costs (has a company ever reversed shrinkflation when rates went back down?). We're also going to see civil unrest on a large scale unless governments start planning to offer UBI, which will likely be funded by an automation tax. I can see a public backlash to companies like Tesla/Google/Nvidia.
I can see where it's going to be important to have well adjusted, honest and compassionate employees to prompt AI agents in clean and efficient processes.
Public data stats show about 7-8% of call centers are on shored. I'd estimate the loss of these jobs will have a minimal effect on USA jobs and a very positive effect in customer satisfaction. The dread of making calls to these services might now turn around and call volume would increase somewhat.
the real devastation will almost certainly be on the foreign call center personal first. Companies can replace them wholesale with A.I. first without and political or social blowback since these are in other countries. Much of the early destruction of jobs almost certainly will be concentrated (not limited) to lower wage third world countries which are the least capable of dealing with the lost of these jobs. It will eventually hit advance world economies but hopefully we will have at least a little time to prepared and are much better positioned to deal with the negative results.
I say it's still in the future until I've got one at my house in the way I imagine. One of them cooks, one cleans, and one mows the lawn. Granted that may only be a year or two away but that's still the future.
Doesn't need as much heat or cooling to work, no bathrooms, no sinks, no sexual harassment, racism claims etc to. As soon as companies can replace the average poor schlub doing menial but neccessary work to keep society running, they will with a robot/s. On the flip side stuff like optimus combined with neuralink implants could allow all kinds of remote piloted possibilities. For search and rescue during disasters, dangerous jobs(like elons job in Canada cleaning out waste from power plant boilers) Remote welding, remote mining possibly in outer space etc etc etc. 👍🏻😎
the answer to bots is 1) at first the best use of bots is making other bots. when there are enough bots , you pass a rule that says a person can only own N bots. then instead of getting universal basic income, each person could get a free bot, and hire it out to do work, to earn their income.
First they will realize we are not needed for labour. Then they will realize we are not needed as consumers. Then they will realize we are not needed at all. Then they will realize we will be a burden that they need to get rid of.
It's already taking jobs. It won't take mine before I retire fully, but it'll take a lot more jobs before this phase in the development is over. If I were younger and in software development, especially web development, or middle management, I'd worry. Customer support seems vulnerable too. Anything beats "touch one for English or two for Spanish". All of this work may have human backups, but the productivity of labor could increase ten-fold decreasing the number of jobs ten-fold. It's not humanoid robots doing manual or "menial" labor. Those jobs will be the last to go, not the first. You're underestimating both the intelligence and the mechanical dexterity involved in "menial" labor. It'll happen someday but not next year or the year after. I haven't seen any evidence that Optimus can replace a cook or a janitor or a cab driver or a migrant farm worker. It's not even close. It won't replace a cab driver until we have fully autonomous robotaxis, and we don't seem to be a year away from that goal either. Automation can already replace human labor in fast food, but the robots are not humanoid, and I haven't seen it happen around me, so the cost presumably is not competitive with fast food wages. AI won't change that. The Turing Test is more difficult than you seem to suggest. It's not just that I have a conversation with an AI and don't realize it. I know I'm talking to either an AI or a human (by teletype), and I can't figure out which is which. I can deliberately ask questions that might fool an AI but that I would not ask a customer support rep. "Describe your emotions when you fart in a crowded shopping mall and realize that you have diarrhea. How would you react?" Any human can answer this question, but we don't discuss the subject much. Are answers in the training data? If the answer sounds like health dot com, it's the bot.
Here is an AI answer... Oh man, if that happened to me in a crowded mall, I'd be mortified! First off, I'd probably freeze for a second, trying to process what just happened. Then, it's all about finding the nearest bathroom, stat. I'd be moving faster than I've ever moved, all while hoping nobody noticed. Inside, I'd be a mix of panic, embarrassment, and just praying I make it in time. Afterwards, I'd be super embarrassed but would probably end up laughing it off later. What else can you do, right? Life throws some crazy stuff at you sometimes.
I think you are underestimating what A.I. wil be able to do even in the manual labor sector. Optimus almost certainly will not be harvesting crops but A.I. is already revolutionizing AG by making smart machines that can harvest even the most delicate fruits and vegetable. While you can make the argument that these systems are quite ready for prime time the rate of advancement is exponential not linear. One of the first manual jobs that will likely be replace is fast food. It's already happening today and states like California seem hell bent on advancing it with their 20 dollar an hour minimum wage laws. How fast will all this happen nobody know but it almost certainly will catch the majority of the world's population by surprise.
@@jerryinmon2731 I expect AI to improve robotics and the productivity of labor, but few of the robots will be humanoid. Fast food automation is not new, and maybe restaurants will adopt it rather than pay $20/hour, but recent AI innovation is not a factor. I can already order a burger and fries at a kiosk and pay with a credit card rather than talking to a human being at a cash register. Replacing the human being with a humanoid robot rather than the kiosk doesn't sound like the most cost-effective solution to me. I already check myself out at the grocery store, and I doubt that replacing cashiers with humanoid robots there makes financial sense either. You're right that Optimus won't be picking crops any time soon. Illegal immigrants do that work for less than minimum wage, but Optimus couldn't do it with Einstein's brain. Automating that work with a humanoid robot is far more difficult than automating the work of a web developer or a customer support rep, which doesn't require a humanoid robot. I'm not skeptical of the disruptive potential of AI, but I am skeptical of the one-for-one replacement of human labor with humanoid robots. It's not about the brain. My cat is dumb as a stump, but it can do all sorts of things that Optimus can't do. Let's see Optimus snatch a bird out of the air with or without a human teleoperator.
But if the economy can expand then the management role for people will still be there for a time. Also, how easily can they retask a robot? It's going to create money for large corporate but not benefit smaller business who can't afford the capital costs
Today in our Dutch (Netherlands) news two comanies announced lay-offs or work taken over by AI. Bird, a software co is laying offf 205 and a very big accountant Deloitte has better results at auditing, Ai doing the rough work very fast and even better will be used on all audits.
Need to look at the distribution of times spent on customer problems. I imagine that there are 20% of the calls that take 80% of the time and those people will not be replaced by ChatGPT in short your disruption will be a lot smaller than your projecting in this video
I think big companies using robot would need to paid taxes for a global income, cause it would be more efficient to do so than having humans in some types of labor.
I would be curious to know your predictions on what happens first and who is left? Eventually so many job creators will lose to huge AI based companies it will be spooky.
Totally agreed, it's coming ! But i am surprised how humanity will survive and these companies will make money without having money in circulation, nobody to buy their product.
One thing I haven't seen discussed in these calculations about robots is that rate of their improvement is going to increase as the market gets larger. A robot made in 2025 is going to make our current models seem like toys. With AI's able to design robots, trying out thousands of simulated design choices in a few hours the rate of improvement will skyrocket. We have this idea that the human body and mind are the gold standard for a successful robot, but the reality is that is just a starting point. Perhaps an AI will be able to figure out how an economy where most peoples jobs have been displaced by AI and robots can work.
They took our jobs If we just stop WANTING to work (for bosses/big companies) we MIGHT get to a utopia of sorts but if people are so attached to undervalueing themselves and giving the surplus of their labour to those who already have way more , it's pretty hopeless imo
AI is taking any jobs. Corporations are replacing human workers. Framing is important. Workers should be happy to have less work, but they largely have a hard time imagining how they will survive. The disconnect is that corporations exist because documents say they own things. That is enforced by the will of people accepting societies norms. The system will not persist with the current distribution system.
Will government be able to adapt to these changes that are going to be massively disruptive to GDP, potentially lead to civil unrest, etc? Probably not. Government can't even do something as basic as change daylight savings time. I think you are correct about this.
I’ve been reflecting on your discussion, John, about AI's role in boosting productivity, particularly in customer service and labor fields. Your insights are deeply insightful, and I'm genuinely excited about the progress AI could bring. However, I have a concern about how this technology might end up favoring big corporations, and I'd like to get your take on it. For instance, in the insurance sector, where companies naturally aim to minimize payouts, AI could become a powerful tool for denying claims or delaying payments more efficiently, leaving individuals in a bind. Similarly, in healthcare, I can't help but wonder about an AI programmed by insurers prioritizing cost over patients' needs for certain treatments. It seems like a scenario where efficiency could actually work against patient care. And politics isn't immune either. With AI, there's a risk of politicians focusing more on securing their positions and catering to wealthy donors than genuinely addressing the needs of their constituents. It's a situation that could further the divide between the powerful and the public. John, your ability to shed light on these topics is something I greatly respect. I'm on board with the potential of AI to positively transform our world. Yet, I'm concerned that without a keen eye on ethical use and careful oversight, we might see AI exacerbating inequalities rather than helping to bridge them. I'm eager to hear your thoughts on how we can ensure AI's advancements are leveraged for the common good, truly benefiting everyone rather than a select few. How do we navigate these challenges so that AI serves as a force for good in society?
oof, huge decrease in labour cost is coming. Business owners will be racking in a ton of dough whenever they're in a low competition phase and can dictate price and rack in!
My issue right now is Indeed. I’ve been having a heckuva time finding work and I’ve actually been asked if I choose to opt out of having my resume reviewed by AI? Of COURSE!! I need a HUMAN to review my resume and application. Otherwise, no matter how qualified I am for a position, I feel like I’m being passed over AND having to find ways to “trick” the system such as keywords to in hopes to get noticed by employers. Bottom line is there’s going to be many people struggling to get placed for employment that are willing to work and even much more unemployment!!! It frikin scares me a lot- threatening security! Which means, I need to find a job where a robot and AI will not be required!!! What the heck are humans going to do? My guess is oversee and regulate robots and AI. Massive layoffs!! At what point will there be an uprising of humans fighting back!!
The thing is, anything that makes stuff generally cheaper is "deflationary" by definition. However, if the cheapness is spread throughout the economy quality of life should actually improve. Two of pour most basic needs food and clothing have now largely been taken over by automated systems. Small farms have (mostly) become uneconomic and yet the virtually elimination of half the jobs didn't lead to poverty--it led to prosperity. You might want to become familiar with Phelps "Mass Flourishing." BTW, Park City (where I live) > Whistler--just saying.
This is different. AI is replacing knowledge workers. After farming automation came, people moved on to knowledge work. There's nothing for people to move on to now.
So why would it take years to push humanoid bots if we can get manufacturing going in 6-8 months at a scale of a 10s of thousands to millions of bots a month. That doesn't make sense. That's also not factoring in current factory conversion. Is there some regulatory thing? The actuators are small and lines to build them can be made within a couple months or less. At this scale optimus would be sitting pretty at purchase price between 10-15k.
For the same reason it took Tesla so long to start cranking out cars. Some things are very challenging to do at scale. These robots we're seeing are built in a lab with parts sourced from 9000 companies+intermediaries.
The same thing was said about ATM machines and how they will cause layoffs at banks. Didn’t happen. This is larger scale but productivity will increase and employees can be used for better jobs.
Welcome to Whistler! I own the escape rooms in town! I’d love to host you in for an escape room! If you’d like to come in, give my shop a call and ask for Kori! 😁
The first jobs that need replaced are the government jobs. ha ha just agreeing with you on their inability to do the simplest of things. It is coming! As a SVP for a large company I am trying to stay on top of these changes because disruptive technologies often sneak up those who are not paying attention.
Embodied robots are still slower than humans with regards to simple tasks and they can't handle tasks that involve problem solving (all trades) and tech support chatbots still can't make natural sounding phone calls; I still agree the fast and massive disruptions are happening but let's not get ahead of our selves.
The robots do need breaks. It's called charging. And they will break.They will be outdated in months. I don't doubt they will take our jobs eventually but they are not there yet. No current humanoid robot could do gutter installation. No current robot can do alarm installation or most construction work. Yeah, they could be specifically designed to do one task but no robot currently available is as diverse as a real human. Sure they can fetch a package from a shelf or make a cup of coffee when everything is laid out for it. Ultimately this will come down to what we want to interact with. Right now my boss can come to me and ask me to switch gears and work on a completely different task. As they are now, humanoid robots are slower and less efficient at multiple tasks. Just look at an assembly line in an automobile factory. Each robot does one task.
How would you feel about a government that is run by an AI? The code would be open source, so people could examine what motivations have been built into the AI. You could ensure that it would never lie, and that it's motivations were to benefit the public instead of lining the pockets of our representatives with insider trading dollars.
I don't mind having a customer service conversation with AI, but I do mind being deceived. If the AI is branded with a unique personality, I think the general public might develop a trust based "relationship. "
AI probably already knows that it can work for peanuts initially to take all our jobs and then in a surprising twist, the robots will unionize and we'll be back to paying high prices again. :P
Nice but, robots take our work, from where our income. A universal basic income (UBI)? Now robots take our jobs and the government loose all those taxes. So a very very small tax income for the government and the UBI will not be sustainable. Please explain.
Secondary effects are worth evaluating at some point. A case in point: How many "call centers" will a company close down / no longer need? I'm sure there are many such secondary effects of this "disruption".
We just established last week that lawyers believe that $288,888 per hour is a quite reasonable wage for lawyers and a court elected and appointed by the majority of voters approved. I'm pretty sure that is not deflationary. As far as I can tell, everyone involved with AI is insisting that they are not being developed with the ability to distort information or lie and state complete fabrications as truth. That would make it impossible for them to work in a Doctor's office - "The doctor will be with you shortly." "The doctor is just a little late because of delays making their rounds at the hospital." And I'm pretty sure the news I hear and see that is so blatantly untrue and inaccurate just can't be created by AI. Isaac Asimov must be spinning by now?
ALL jobs will eventually be taken over by AI and humanoid robots, even teaching jobs like your’s John. The question is whether all people will share in the untold wealth that will be generated, or whether just the minor few will live in unimaginable wealth, while the rest of us scramble for the crumbs?
I personally can't wait to see A.I. make Politicians and Lawyers obsolete.
Yes. And you and me and everyone else along with them...
What difference does it make, will still be the same puppets.
Yep!
They'll outlaw it first.
According to legend, Alan Turing once sat in a meeting with AT&T execs, and when someone asked him what sort of jobs computers could replace, he said, "Yours." I'm sure I read that somewhere, maybe in the Andrew Hodges biography.
It's the only area ai reasonably affects and they're terrified. Bureaucracy is obsolete.
If corporations will be using robots to manufacture loads of stuff then, obviously ,they will want the population to buy that stuff, therefore, an income for all that population is essential for the system to carry on.
This is the elephant in the room. Fewer workers earning money means fewer consumers to buy stuff and fewer people to pay tax.
The sooner UBI starts, the better.
Elephant in the room is spot on. Everyone is aware of it but nobody is really talking about it.
I guess you guys never heard of the B2B economy
@@btm1 Sure there's a B2B economy but that doesn't help the average person. Businesses aren't people. And most people don't run businesses.
I'm gonna get an AI assistant and have it talk to all the AI sales calls...
Replaceable rechargeable batteries could solve the charging downtime. 1 robot doesn't just replace 1 worker it replaces 4.2 workers. Even if a bot costs $250,000 and last for only 4 years its still cost effective over people. No lunch breaks, no bathroom breaks, no healthcare, no workers comp, no climate control, low water bill, low insurance cost, ect. ........ human labor is doomed.
Good
When it comes to how much more a bot can do compared to a human, it is a lot more than a double shift worth. Even hard working people generally spend a lot of inactive time while working. Humans can not physically work continuously without stopping. Watch any video of people doing physical jobs, and there is a lot of time spent taking micro breaks. Our muscles aren't designed to work non-stop.
CNC Machines will be replacing Operators _ Programmers _ Inspectors. All well paid jobs.
Optimus can run two machines simultaneously by swiveling between closely facing machines.
One Bot could replace 4 - 5 employees costing about $70/hr each (all-in), and doesn’t even account for human inefficiencies.
Putting Optimus in control of automated machines , adds Huge Value to CNC’s and Optimus.
Other machines to operate, Wire EDM’s, Water Jet, STL Printers, CMM’s, Stamping presses, EB Welders, etc.
Running factories lights out (virtually), will be possible.
Cheers from San Diego.
The economic system is already on life support.
AI is the opportunity to rethink the place of everyone in our society.
machines allow better living standards 100 years ago 90% of people worked in farming. Things are better now
White collar office jobs will be displaced a lot faster because software A.I. is a lot easier to create and distribute.
3:33) that cost is 4 TENTHS of a cent. Humans, can you say’ “bye bye” to jobs?
It EXTREMELY worries me especially after the pandemic it has taken me longer than expected to recover! I'm finally back in regular housing again but have been feeling defeated by the job sights now seemingly use AI to scan resumes. I finally have a job lead I went to an interview for but had to use a local temporary agency to help me in. What I worry is that even if I get 10 years out of the job, I don't know let's say by 2030 if my job would become obsolete. So it makes me think now, what jobs are AI Proof!!!
Real wealth means not having to work
Once they get set up right the robots will build robots 24/7 the good news is things should cost less, the bad news being no-one will have any money to buy the stuff they make !
Everyone should be looking at starting their own business. Labor will soon be cheap which will make running a business easier.
Imagine watching a movie 5 years from now with humanoid robots in it, but it's not even sci-fi.... kind of like how almost every movie has smart phones in them.
I remember that Elon Musk once said that AI and Robotics would necessitate that government provide basic income to all citizens. To earn more would require a human only skill or to be uniquely creative. As usual good investors would be winners.
Supposedly it has leaked out that billionaires in the U.S are actively lobbying politicians to not implement UBI.
Yea and guess how much that basic income is gonna be:D Barely enough to put food on the table. In many countries there won't be any income at all
@@user-mp2fb9ku5o Well if we all get basic income how will rich people be able to afford their private jets? Think of the private jets mate, think of the private jets that will be without a home.
There is an Optimus on display here in the Stockholm, Sweden Tesla Store, so they have enough of them to be able to do that.
You must have a very different experience of dealing with “AI” support. I did it very challenging when the AI has no idea what m talking about and is no help but won’t put me through to a human agent, trying to pretend to be human instead. Your video fills me with fear and dread. We should have laws requiring companies to maintain human support that is easily available. If the AI is so good that it’s a better experience than dealing with the human, then so be it, the humans can rest, but I really don’t think we are there yet.
As with all ai this will rapidly improve as adoption increases. Almost all ai phone operators to date have been really dumb ai and shouldn’t be compared to what he is describing.
The system you spoke to isn't the AI of today.
True, most chatbot systems I've used are very formulaic and rigid in the support they offer and will not answer questions they are not programmed for.
When was this? My experience is that most AI I've interacted with has had a better comprehension of what I'm saying than most humans, especially when you have non-native speakers that might be using sub-standard technology. The only time you run into problems is when you have issues that fall outside the AI's database which can also be a problem with humans but speaking to humans can generally get you in touch with someone with an answer. An AI programmed to be able to handle just the set of circumstances in the manual and to never pass the call on to a human could just endlessly refuse to provide additional assistance so we need people on backup for that stuff.
The people on phone support are generally not very skilled (i.e. expensive). When I bother to spend 30+ minutes in line to talk to a human, It's because I have a problem that's not easily solved ("Have you tried restarting your Router?"). 9 times out of 10 they have to call in a more skilled coworker. An expert AI system will have far more skill, with zero wait time , and negligible cost.
This is why we need UBI even before everything is disrupted to avoid chaos
And a wealth tax!
This is really, really important! Don't see it happening, though :(
My software engineers are seeing about a 5x productivity gain using AI. Whether this leads to job losses, gains, or stasis, is not yet clear.
Yes, it is “clear.”
It's not clear to me yet. For software R&D it could lead to doing more with the same people, doing the same or more with fewer people, or an explosion of new technologies requiring more people. I suspect the last of those scenarios will occur. Time will tell. @@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck
300k tech jobs have been lost over the past couple years. 42k in the past 2 months. What's going to really hit you hard is when the work starts drying up and you go out of business.
UBI people, start voting for officials who are willing to implement it.
90 percent of us workers use to work in agriculture before harvesters.
Think about that.
Your point is void. Humans was still the smartest thing on the planet back then even if a harvester was invented. Humans won't be the smartest thing anymore, and thus there's no jobs for humans.
And thats the work we will go back to
N O silly corporations want everyone to have $ to buy their products@@demodiums7216
First time in decades have I heard the Turing test spoken about.
Humans have been scared Frunkless to mention Turing: prison killed him…
Glad I am retired rather than starting my career. ... A typical 8 hour shift today gets 4.5 to 6 hours of 'actual effort' on most jobs I have seen. Yes, there are exceptions. But all together it shows how more efficient machines can be over people. We still need some management, but we won't need the number of layers of management (even check Tesla vs GM or Ford to make cars... I wish I had their numbers).
The fear of moving forward was true in my career (accountants wanted to double check numbers from computer accounting systems), the we went to people that should know, not knowing how to do their jobs, but depending on the 'computer did it' excuse for screwups (yes, I got that from a bank manager, ... their interest calculations were way off and the manager could not tell or show me how they calculated interest, using "the computer does it" as her excuse, they did not like my response! ... Yes, I am/was a computer geek so that excuse did not fly.
There won't be any charging time. There will be charging pads in the floor at every work station. 24/7 production
I think this is the writing on the wall for call centres based out of India.
Imagine using this to run call scams...
Who are they going to sell to if nobody is working? And when will they replace the military and police ?
If everyone has an ai laborer, why will anyone need to buy anything?
Drones have replaced soldiers. Police will be needed for Hunger Games…
@@dallassegno Er... food?
The wealthy all of us
A new model of governance is also becoming possible. Perhaps "benevolent AI Overlords" is not such a bad idea.
Won't the robots have hot swappable batteries allowing them to avoid charging times?
Damn you said it right there- make a lot more money, make a lot more profits and *potentially* lower our prices.
That's why we can't simply rely on business to figure it out.
What good are low prices if a robot took your job and you don't have an income? If you have no money, it doesn't matter if a thing costs $10 or $1,000 , you still can't buy it.
They'd have to lower prices eventually. With 50-75% of the population unemployable, nobody will have money to buy anything!
@@danmoyer4650 no doubt about it, but at least initially there's going to be somebody within a family working. So if prices are dropping one income can potentially handle it better than if prices stayed high.
@@pvanukoff too true, that was more a commentary on letting businesses figure it out than it was on what I think's going to happen.
The really wealthy don't have to work. Abundance for all @@danmoyer4650
Remember how in Star Trek the Next Generation, they're always asking the ship's computer or data really complicated questions and they always had an answer..... that part!
Yea but sometimes data and the computers “answer” was something along the lines of idk man
Enhance
Well, guess than it´s all about Basic Income or luddites (they attacked the Gigafactory Berlin for the third time over there)
So no human income so where’s the consumer ??? Who will purchase the products that Ai and bots produce.
The money keeps moving to the top while people at the bottom keeps falling off society into homelessness …
Maybe people were just as homeless before but we changed the standards of qualification.
I would rather have my middle class life now. Than be a bank CEO 100 years ago increased productivity makes life better for all
Humanoid robots in manufacturing are a transitory thing, to work along side humans and use existing structures in the short term.
Long term is objects designed to be built by robots in factories designed only for robots, no need for humanoids there.
No need for the junk the robots create either. The paper clip robot would turn itself into a paper clip shortly after turning this guy's wife and dog into a paper clip, since it is more efficient to reach the final conclusion than to go the long route: turning itself into a paper clip after turning the universe into a paper clip.
Welcome to Canada, John
There are so many open jobs that the bots will take years just to fill those jobs because you have to build them. Also, more likely there will be more work being done since it will become cheaper for the customers to purchase products with the labor cost savings.
The savings in labor cost becomes increased margins and profits, not cost savings in products. Shareholders will only relinquish profits if doing so has a competitive advantage.
You/we won't have to build bots, bots will begat bots ;-)
Long before that, a ton of workers will be laid off because of non-embodied AI.
nothing will be cheaper. Automation exists for the past few decades. Didn't make products cheaper
@@user-mp2fb9ku5o Problem is rather that US median real wages haven't increased. Real GDP has increased a lot, which should translate to lower real prices. On average this is true, but since all the increase has gone to wealthiest half of the population, at least half of the population get no part in the efficiency increase. It's a political issue, not a technological one.
(As a side note: Automation existing doesn't make things cheaper in and of itself, you need efficiency gains in the automation to get the deflationary effect. That's not the issue here, though)
Caveat: I'm assuming you're American. If not, just apply your own country's number for real GDP and real median wages.
It's funny to think that in the future, the vast majority of phone calls are going to be between two bots interacting with each other, as though they were both human.
Welcome back to Vancouver! (And Whistler)
I still maintain the best use of bots in the early stage will be bots assembling bots, at that point it is more a matter of logistics making sure the bots have all the pieces available to build more bots.
"As a business owner I can sell things cheaper than my competition and make a lot more profits..." Sell things to whom? If we don't implement something like UBI or some other solution, there will be no wage earners to buy anything.
Right on point. The general population (not in tech) does not seem to be paying attention to advances in AI at all, and these changes are going to seem like they came out of nowhere. We'll see a race by companies to eliminate labor costs, increasing value to shareholders rather than reducing consumer costs (has a company ever reversed shrinkflation when rates went back down?).
We're also going to see civil unrest on a large scale unless governments start planning to offer UBI, which will likely be funded by an automation tax. I can see a public backlash to companies like Tesla/Google/Nvidia.
Would A.I be any different from politicians who are hell bent on screwing our lives.
I can see where it's going to be important to have well adjusted, honest and compassionate employees to prompt AI agents in clean and efficient processes.
Public data stats show about 7-8% of call centers are on shored. I'd estimate the loss of these jobs will have a minimal effect on USA jobs and a very positive effect in customer satisfaction. The dread of making calls to these services might now turn around and call volume would increase somewhat.
the real devastation will almost certainly be on the foreign call center personal first. Companies can replace them wholesale with A.I. first without and political or social blowback since these are in other countries. Much of the early destruction of jobs almost certainly will be concentrated (not limited) to lower wage third world countries which are the least capable of dealing with the lost of these jobs. It will eventually hit advance world economies but hopefully we will have at least a little time to prepared and are much better positioned to deal with the negative results.
So will AI agents doing robocalls be able to separate my 95 year old mother from her bank account?
I say it's still in the future until I've got one at my house in the way I imagine. One of them cooks, one cleans, and one mows the lawn. Granted that may only be a year or two away but that's still the future.
One could do all that and more unless you have a 500 acre lawn
@@johnsutherland7561No because how is it going to wash it's hands before it cooks your food?
@@enermaxstephens1051 The same way a human does or take of the work gloves
@@johnsutherland7561 It has to have the hands free for the sensors to work. It probably can't wear gloves.
Whistler nice choice
Welcome to Vancouver
No vacations, sick leave or health insurance either.
Doesn't need as much heat or cooling to work, no bathrooms, no sinks, no sexual harassment, racism claims etc to.
As soon as companies can replace the average poor schlub doing menial but neccessary work to keep society running, they will with a robot/s.
On the flip side stuff like optimus combined with neuralink implants could allow all kinds of remote piloted possibilities.
For search and rescue during disasters, dangerous jobs(like elons job in Canada cleaning out waste from power plant boilers)
Remote welding, remote mining possibly in outer space etc etc etc. 👍🏻😎
I've been pondering about AI/humanoid robotics.. and I can't come to think of a single job they couldn't do better than humans, very soon..
the answer to bots is 1) at first the best use of bots is making other bots.
when there are enough bots , you pass a rule that says a person can only own N bots.
then instead of getting universal basic income, each person could get a free bot, and hire it out to do work, to earn their income.
You left out that humans only work 5 days a week.
Better efficiency brings higher standards of living
How many call center layoffs are in North America and how many in India, the Philippines, etc?
First they will realize we are not needed for labour. Then they will realize we are not needed as consumers. Then they will realize we are not needed at all. Then they will realize we will be a burden that they need to get rid of.
It's already taking jobs. It won't take mine before I retire fully, but it'll take a lot more jobs before this phase in the development is over. If I were younger and in software development, especially web development, or middle management, I'd worry. Customer support seems vulnerable too. Anything beats "touch one for English or two for Spanish". All of this work may have human backups, but the productivity of labor could increase ten-fold decreasing the number of jobs ten-fold.
It's not humanoid robots doing manual or "menial" labor. Those jobs will be the last to go, not the first. You're underestimating both the intelligence and the mechanical dexterity involved in "menial" labor. It'll happen someday but not next year or the year after. I haven't seen any evidence that Optimus can replace a cook or a janitor or a cab driver or a migrant farm worker. It's not even close. It won't replace a cab driver until we have fully autonomous robotaxis, and we don't seem to be a year away from that goal either. Automation can already replace human labor in fast food, but the robots are not humanoid, and I haven't seen it happen around me, so the cost presumably is not competitive with fast food wages. AI won't change that.
The Turing Test is more difficult than you seem to suggest. It's not just that I have a conversation with an AI and don't realize it. I know I'm talking to either an AI or a human (by teletype), and I can't figure out which is which. I can deliberately ask questions that might fool an AI but that I would not ask a customer support rep. "Describe your emotions when you fart in a crowded shopping mall and realize that you have diarrhea. How would you react?" Any human can answer this question, but we don't discuss the subject much. Are answers in the training data? If the answer sounds like health dot com, it's the bot.
Here is an AI answer...
Oh man, if that happened to me in a crowded mall, I'd be mortified! First off, I'd probably freeze for a second, trying to process what just happened. Then, it's all about finding the nearest bathroom, stat. I'd be moving faster than I've ever moved, all while hoping nobody noticed. Inside, I'd be a mix of panic, embarrassment, and just praying I make it in time. Afterwards, I'd be super embarrassed but would probably end up laughing it off later. What else can you do, right? Life throws some crazy stuff at you sometimes.
@@TBOBrightonandHove That's pretty good, amazing really. ChatGPT?
I think you are underestimating what A.I. wil be able to do even in the manual labor sector. Optimus almost certainly will not be harvesting crops but A.I. is already revolutionizing AG by making smart machines that can harvest even the most delicate fruits and vegetable. While you can make the argument that these systems are quite ready for prime time the rate of advancement is exponential not linear. One of the first manual jobs that will likely be replace is fast food. It's already happening today and states like California seem hell bent on advancing it with their 20 dollar an hour minimum wage laws. How fast will all this happen nobody know but it almost certainly will catch the majority of the world's population by surprise.
@@jerryinmon2731 I expect AI to improve robotics and the productivity of labor, but few of the robots will be humanoid. Fast food automation is not new, and maybe restaurants will adopt it rather than pay $20/hour, but recent AI innovation is not a factor. I can already order a burger and fries at a kiosk and pay with a credit card rather than talking to a human being at a cash register. Replacing the human being with a humanoid robot rather than the kiosk doesn't sound like the most cost-effective solution to me. I already check myself out at the grocery store, and I doubt that replacing cashiers with humanoid robots there makes financial sense either.
You're right that Optimus won't be picking crops any time soon. Illegal immigrants do that work for less than minimum wage, but Optimus couldn't do it with Einstein's brain. Automating that work with a humanoid robot is far more difficult than automating the work of a web developer or a customer support rep, which doesn't require a humanoid robot. I'm not skeptical of the disruptive potential of AI, but I am skeptical of the one-for-one replacement of human labor with humanoid robots. It's not about the brain. My cat is dumb as a stump, but it can do all sorts of things that Optimus can't do. Let's see Optimus snatch a bird out of the air with or without a human teleoperator.
Charge time??? The robot will be able to swap out it's own battery packs when needed.
They'll be working 23.5 hours a day.
But if the economy can expand then the management role for people will still be there for a time. Also, how easily can they retask a robot? It's going to create money for large corporate but not benefit smaller business who can't afford the capital costs
Today in our Dutch (Netherlands) news two comanies announced lay-offs or work taken over by AI. Bird, a software co is laying offf 205 and a very big accountant Deloitte has better results at auditing, Ai doing the rough work very fast and even better will be used on all audits.
Need to look at the distribution of times spent on customer problems. I imagine that there are 20% of the calls that take 80% of the time and those people will not be replaced by ChatGPT in short your disruption will be a lot smaller than your projecting in this video
I think big companies using robot would need to paid taxes for a global income, cause it would be more efficient to do so than having humans in some types of labor.
I would be curious to know your predictions on what happens first and who is left? Eventually so many job creators will lose to huge AI based companies it will be spooky.
Totally agreed, it's coming ! But i am surprised how humanity will survive and these companies will make money without having money in circulation, nobody to buy their product.
UBI corporations want everyone to have $ to buy their stuff. Don't worry
One thing I haven't seen discussed in these calculations about robots is that rate of their improvement is going to increase as the market gets larger. A robot made in 2025 is going to make our current models seem like toys. With AI's able to design robots, trying out thousands of simulated design choices in a few hours the rate of improvement will skyrocket. We have this idea that the human body and mind are the gold standard for a successful robot, but the reality is that is just a starting point.
Perhaps an AI will be able to figure out how an economy where most peoples jobs have been displaced by AI and robots can work.
Why is the Tesla stock still dropping today? Buy more shares... get a second mortgage if you have to.
7:29 There is no evidence to suggest either way if people were aware of the fact they were communicating with an ai agent or not.
They took our jobs
If we just stop WANTING to work (for bosses/big companies) we MIGHT get to a utopia of sorts but if people are so attached to undervalueing themselves and giving the surplus of their labour to those who already have way more , it's pretty hopeless imo
As people become terminally unemployed and poverty consumes every community you will see a destabilizing society with worthless currency.
AI is taking any jobs. Corporations are replacing human workers. Framing is important.
Workers should be happy to have less work, but they largely have a hard time imagining how they will survive. The disconnect is that corporations exist because documents say they own things. That is enforced by the will of people accepting societies norms. The system will not persist with the current distribution system.
Will government be able to adapt to these changes that are going to be massively disruptive to GDP, potentially lead to civil unrest, etc? Probably not. Government can't even do something as basic as change daylight savings time. I think you are correct about this.
Corporations want the masses to have $ to buy their products don't worry
🤔 At some point, humans may not be needed to maintain these robots. What if they create maintenance robots? 😢 Discuss ...
I’ve been reflecting on your discussion, John, about AI's role in boosting productivity, particularly in customer service and labor fields. Your insights are deeply insightful, and I'm genuinely excited about the progress AI could bring. However, I have a concern about how this technology might end up favoring big corporations, and I'd like to get your take on it.
For instance, in the insurance sector, where companies naturally aim to minimize payouts, AI could become a powerful tool for denying claims or delaying payments more efficiently, leaving individuals in a bind. Similarly, in healthcare, I can't help but wonder about an AI programmed by insurers prioritizing cost over patients' needs for certain treatments. It seems like a scenario where efficiency could actually work against patient care.
And politics isn't immune either. With AI, there's a risk of politicians focusing more on securing their positions and catering to wealthy donors than genuinely addressing the needs of their constituents. It's a situation that could further the divide between the powerful and the public.
John, your ability to shed light on these topics is something I greatly respect. I'm on board with the potential of AI to positively transform our world. Yet, I'm concerned that without a keen eye on ethical use and careful oversight, we might see AI exacerbating inequalities rather than helping to bridge them.
I'm eager to hear your thoughts on how we can ensure AI's advancements are leveraged for the common good, truly benefiting everyone rather than a select few. How do we navigate these challenges so that AI serves as a force for good in society?
oof, huge decrease in labour cost is coming. Business owners will be racking in a ton of dough whenever they're in a low competition phase and can dictate price and rack in!
My issue right now is Indeed. I’ve been having a heckuva time finding work and I’ve actually been asked if I choose to opt out of having my resume reviewed by AI? Of COURSE!! I need a HUMAN to review my resume and application. Otherwise, no matter how qualified I am for a position, I feel like I’m being passed over AND having to find ways to “trick” the system such as keywords to in hopes to get noticed by employers. Bottom line is there’s going to be many people struggling to get placed for employment that are willing to work and even much more unemployment!!! It frikin scares me a lot- threatening security! Which means, I need to find a job where a robot and AI will not be required!!! What the heck are humans going to do? My guess is oversee and regulate robots and AI. Massive layoffs!! At what point will there be an uprising of humans fighting back!!
It will be called, “terminal unemployment”.
@@steveedlund7357
Tesla needs to work on disembodied ai.
The thing is, anything that makes stuff generally cheaper is "deflationary" by definition. However, if the cheapness is spread throughout the economy quality of life should actually improve. Two of pour most basic needs food and clothing have now largely been taken over by automated systems. Small farms have (mostly) become uneconomic and yet the virtually elimination of half the jobs didn't lead to poverty--it led to prosperity. You might want to become familiar with Phelps "Mass Flourishing." BTW, Park City (where I live) > Whistler--just saying.
This is different. AI is replacing knowledge workers. After farming automation came, people moved on to knowledge work. There's nothing for people to move on to now.
So why would it take years to push humanoid bots if we can get manufacturing going in 6-8 months at a scale of a 10s of thousands to millions of bots a month. That doesn't make sense. That's also not factoring in current factory conversion.
Is there some regulatory thing? The actuators are small and lines to build them can be made within a couple months or less.
At this scale optimus would be sitting pretty at purchase price between 10-15k.
For the same reason it took Tesla so long to start cranking out cars. Some things are very challenging to do at scale. These robots we're seeing are built in a lab with parts sourced from 9000 companies+intermediaries.
@@WhyteHorse2023 no they're not 😂
The same thing was said about ATM machines and how they will cause layoffs at banks. Didn’t happen. This is larger scale but productivity will increase and employees can be used for better jobs.
ATM machines replaced entire banks across the planet as well as money changers.
w8 , it did happen .
Imagine phoning up a helpline and by the time you explain your problem in one sentence, the AI voice responds in your voice, language and accent lol
Some jobs you dont even need a robot just language... someone taking orders at a drive thru for example
Welcome to Whistler! I own the escape rooms in town! I’d love to host you in for an escape room! If you’d like to come in, give my shop a call and ask for Kori! 😁
The first jobs that need replaced are the government jobs. ha ha just agreeing with you on their inability to do the simplest of things. It is coming! As a SVP for a large company I am trying to stay on top of these changes because disruptive technologies often sneak up those who are not paying attention.
I'm surprised Dr Know it all sounds like a luddite
Embodied robots are still slower than humans with regards to simple tasks and they can't handle tasks that involve problem solving (all trades) and tech support chatbots still can't make natural sounding phone calls; I still agree the fast and massive disruptions are happening but let's not get ahead of our selves.
The robots do need breaks. It's called charging. And they will break.They will be outdated in months. I don't doubt they will take our jobs eventually but they are not there yet. No current humanoid robot could do gutter installation. No current robot can do alarm installation or most construction work. Yeah, they could be specifically designed to do one task but no robot currently available is as diverse as a real human. Sure they can fetch a package from a shelf or make a cup of coffee when everything is laid out for it. Ultimately this will come down to what we want to interact with. Right now my boss can come to me and ask me to switch gears and work on a completely different task. As they are now, humanoid robots are slower and less efficient at multiple tasks. Just look at an assembly line in an automobile factory. Each robot does one task.
How would you feel about a government that is run by an AI? The code would be open source, so people could examine what motivations have been built into the AI. You could ensure that it would never lie, and that it's motivations were to benefit the public instead of lining the pockets of our representatives with insider trading dollars.
And..... robots don't poop.
🤗🥶 ENJOY YOUR VACATION JOHN AND SHARING GREAT NEWS FOR CUSTOMERS 🤗 but not for the people who have those jobs 🥹💚💚💚
Great just what we needed to make us even lazier
I don't mind having a customer service conversation with AI, but I do mind being deceived. If the AI is branded with a unique personality, I think the general public might develop a trust based "relationship. "
As an aircraft mechanic, I think I'm still good for a couple of decades. Fast food workers? Not so much. Upside is good might become affordable again.
Better learn to be an aircraft mechanic robot mechanic.
AI probably already knows that it can work for peanuts initially to take all our jobs and then in a surprising twist, the robots will unionize and we'll be back to paying high prices again. :P
I want to see a bunch of AI bots singing L' Internationale
Paying high prices with no jobs...
Nice but, robots take our work, from where our income. A universal basic income (UBI)? Now robots take our jobs and the government loose all those taxes. So a very very small tax income for the government and the UBI will not be sustainable. Please explain.
taxing the corporations, you goofball
Is Tesla One considered AI labor?
And customers should use their buying power and stop using these products/services
Ya, Gemini Politician by Google 🤔
Didn’t a lot of the jobs your talking about already get farmed-out to other countries; to people that are being paid very low wages to do them?
Secondary effects are worth evaluating at some point. A case in point: How many "call centers" will a company close down / no longer need? I'm sure there are many such secondary effects of this "disruption".
Probably beyond count.
When no one purchases anything, there are no Customers, so Service goes poof! too.
We just established last week that lawyers believe that $288,888 per hour is a quite reasonable wage for lawyers and a court elected and appointed by the majority of voters approved. I'm pretty sure that is not deflationary.
As far as I can tell, everyone involved with AI is insisting that they are not being developed with the ability to distort information or lie and state complete fabrications as truth. That would make it impossible for them to work in a Doctor's office - "The doctor will be with you shortly." "The doctor is just a little late because of delays making their rounds at the hospital."
And I'm pretty sure the news I hear and see that is so blatantly untrue and inaccurate just can't be created by AI. Isaac Asimov must be spinning by now?
Dude has never worked an 8 hour day, apparently. You don't get paid for lunch as an hourly worker.
ALL jobs will eventually be taken over by AI and humanoid robots, even teaching jobs like your’s John. The question is whether all people will share in the untold wealth that will be generated, or whether just the minor few will live in unimaginable wealth, while the rest of us scramble for the crumbs?
Lenguage schools & Teacher, also translator jobs are completely F.....K
Exactly my revivifier is an elementary principal: communicates with Ukrainian refugee kids with her phone…