Uncovering the Truth: Is China's Economy Collapsing? w/ Kyle Bass (TIP611)
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2024
- Clay chats with Kyle Bass, the founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management. Hayman’s first major success came from effectively shorting the housing market in 2008, and Kyle was profiled in Michael Lewis’ book The Big Short.
After seeing Chinese stocks drop 20% over the past year, I invited Kyle back onto the show because he has been sounding the alarm bells for years on a market correction in Chinese markets.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
0:00:00 - Intro
0:00:57 - Why China is potentially preparing to invade Taiwan.
0:06:10 - How has China been restricting data and information flow to foreigners?
0:08:48 - Major military, mainland, and legal actions the CCP has taken in the past few years.
0:20:48 - Why foreign direct investment to China has collapsed in recent years.
0:23:07 - Potential sanctions the US may implement if China invades Taiwan.
0:31:44 - What Kyle is seeing in the Chinese real estate market.
0:39:54 - Whether he sees the crisis in China affecting other markets globally.
0:44:16 - Why he believes the Fed is out of touch with reality.
0:52:47 - How Kyle is positioned as an investor today.
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Please be aware of US Government propaganda
😊😊😊😊
Kyle's perceptive and common sense approach to the economies of both the US and China is most refreshing. He is correct about how dissociated the US elites are from the common people in getting the impacts of inflation.
Good day #KyleBass. Is it purely coincidental that the amount of Foreiign Direct Investment over the past years appears to be the same as the amount spent on Belt & Road???
Thank you for saying the inflation rate is 3 times officially reported. My findings conclude the same.
Your findings???😂👀🥸
@@YouevilpeoplewillpayI was thinking the same. Findings from?
What’s wrong with someone running the numbers for themselves or doing their own research? Perhaps we should only trust info from those deemed worthy ‘experts’? (as certainly no government out there would let anything but the most fair and unbiased info be authoritative, right?)
@@BuddyLee23 what people usually refer to "their findings" is them looking for numbers that are in line with their view of the world and their subjective experience. now trusting the government without questing it is bad and you shouldn't trust what they say, but trusting random nobodies who "ran the numbers" is probably worse
6:00 "No one has accurate data on what is going on in China except the CCP." That's wrong, not even the CCP has accurate data. Frank Dikotter spells out way extremely well in his books. Basically, the central government sets a goal, those goals trickle down from the provinces to the municipalities and counties as sub goals. Everyone has to hit the goal, so they do whatever they have to, including cooking the books, to show that they exceeded the goal. Those lies bake all the way up to Beijing. That's how you get spy balloons, perpetual covid lockdowns, hand sanitizer spraying on runways, and massive famines.
all right, then what's the reason behind the creation of American propaganda?
If he had said perfectly or entirely accurate data, I would tend to agree more, as even if the vast majority of China’s data is fictional and/or aspirational, it would be hard to argue that they do not have at least *some* accurate data, and certainly more of it than anyone else.
Also how you get like in 2020 reports saying that covid was all around China, but they had 0 cases.
Governments are not our friends, and they will intentionally not count, or make it extremely difficult to count data. Same is true for the US and how many people were hurt by the vax. Also in cities like SF people don't even call the police anymore because it takes them +24 hours to get to you. It's intentionally bad. The same way that the homeless situation keeps growing because they keep funding it with crazy amounts.
I remember learning that the State spent over $1 million per homeless person on housing them. (I was very upset, as they could build a nice house in CA for that much.) But as soon as XI comes to visit they cleaned up the streets in SF in a few days and it was clean and safe again, til after he came.)
If you have grown up in a Western nation where "corruption", telling lies, looking out only for #1 and a sense of never being safe are really rare, then it is near impossible to understand the depth of secrecy and lies that permeate societies ruled by fear. Trust no one, not even your family is how people are forced to live.
So everyone lies, everyone cheats the next person, everyone says "yes boss, no boss" all the while stealing a bit here and bit there.
Look up the Chinese rockets scandal. Even at that level, the level of ICBM's, this culture applies.
At the very top if you upset the great leader, you and your family disappear. Just gone. So you tell the "top man" what he needs to hear.
The Chinese economy is in free fall. Soon there will no money to repair stuff. Soon there will be no money to buy food.
@@BuddyLee23both of you are right
Source for the “imports 40% of their food” claim? That’s insane I need it for a piece
Just found your channel. Appreciate this interview!
Thank you for watching! 💡
This guy lost his shirt shorting HKD
That is a blue shirt.
@@mikemcglauflin8985😂😂😂 funny!
Very disappointed you invite guests like him, especially if it is not the first time. This is a type of interview that may be compressed into a few sentences without losing anything. I like this channel for exceptionally good content, but this episode was not worth the time.
Taiwan currently accounts for approximately 70% of global semiconductor production, with major players like TSMC and UMC. Additionally, the combined output of Samsung and SK Hynix in Asian countries, particularly in DRAM production, constitutes around 75% of worldwide production. The potential instability in these regions could pose a severe risk to the global economy, particularly if Taiwan and South Korea were embroiled in a conflict. There would be no safe place for investments anywhere.
A military invasion of Taiwan would reverberate across all major stock exchanges and impact large multinational corporations. Companies like Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Berkshire Hathaway, Alibaba, Tencent, AMD, and any company heavily reliant on advanced chip technology, would face significant disruptions (80 to 90% drop). Any US sanctions imposed on China would pale in comparison to the economic fallout from such an event.
Invading Taïwan would be as stupid as Russia invading Ukraine ... However threatening to invade Taïwan, and then trade this thread against something more useful (Like Mandshuria or Siberia) might be a very poweful chess move. China could use the Russian resources to feed it's economy. Invading Taïwan would destroy Chinese Belt & Road initiative and economic expansion and it's reputation for a few generations.
Growth in GDP and growth in the stock market are distinct phenomena. Over the past 15 years, the US GDP has increased by 72%, while the S&P 500 index has seen a remarkable growth of 340%, as indicated in the video. Hence, I'm adopting a contrary approach: just because China's GDP has surged by 500% in the same period, but this doesn't necessarily translate to equivalent growth in its stock market. There are several reasons why Chinese stock markets have not seen significant increases, including the fear of international investors and the tendency of Chinese investors to favor real estate over stocks.
However, I concur that investing in China carries a significant risk of substantial losses.
You are assuming that Xi and Putin think rationally and play a decades long game. Both of these guys were born in the early 50s, they could go at any time. Never underestimate the appeal of one last great gamble.
@@randomanon7040 very true, and worrisome
That's why I think the response would be far more lethal to protect them as opposed to the response to Ukraine.
Also i noted he was comparing the Shanghai Index number. But the numbers if you extracted and added Chinese share value listin in HK, USA (several indexes) and London would produce a significantly higher ROI for the period. I don't have the wherewithall to do that type of total calculation. I do monitor many of the offshore listings and have successfully held many such in US, Canada and HK.
Great info
I don't agree with Kyle Bass ....
your his wife???????????????????
I've seen him beating this drum for a while. He makes some really good, valid points. But keep in mind he's a short seller, and he makes his money by spreading a negative view on something and then short-selling it. He tried to massively short the HK dollar a few years ago and it turned against him. So he has an agenda - take anything he says with a grain of salt.
Can you elaborate on what your talking about ? It's easy to say that but what specifically does that mean ? Give one example.
and ur qualifications are?
@@adz951 If you believe what KB says he believes, why would he anything but a short seller.
The US government inflates its currency by say 10% annually, and then you say how wonder it is to get a 5% return on government bonds, yet you just lost 5% of actual wealth holding that for the year.
That's not just the US government but almost every government on earth today.
9@@farzana6676
and its CRAZY to expect that just holding wealth and expecting it to grow by doing nothing is going to work out... people are supposed to be WORKING and saving much more to invest than just a static 5% bond return. Of course youre only going to get a return thats a fraction of overall money inflation... youre doing nothing... and youre expecting to get a % return thats higher than background or govt/ money inflation? INSANE
When you dismiss your enemies as irrational it means you are set on war, not diplomacy or peace.
Not necessarily - sometimes, another side really is truly irrational, or led by a deranged leader. We should be aware such situations can occur. No one wants war, but at a certain point, you need to make call whether to step up and defend yourself or allow an irrational actor to cause you harm.
@@meyroakabigrem1679the funny thing is the US is always “defending” themselves in other people’s countries. But somehow we are the non-aggressive good guys.
@@meyroakabigrem1679 when the world starts sanctioning US for invading other countries then you can start to take them seriously about territorial sovereignty.
Irrational from your point of view...this video isn't worth my time...
@@meyroakabigrem1679So necessarily, if I believe that my opponent is irrational, regardless of whether he is or not, the door to dialogue and diplomacy closes and only the alternative of war remains.
Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create bad times.
and bad times create hard times.........
Such a cliche. I see this comment everywhere.
oh wow, you are so talented, so original... keep up the mundane work!
@@Lovin_ItYour just projecting yourself onto others. I wish you all the very best.
My OCD thanks you @@user-tg8ry8by4z
It doesn't matter if it's rational or his life goal. The question is after they secure the first stepping stone , and taking Taiwan will not be easy, and all their relations with Western countries are cut off and they have only Russia to look to for any kind of logistical support. How do they resupply their military machine How did they feed the population to keep them from going out of control. It's not a question of whether or not the leader is a maniac The question is what does he have to trade that will keep countries supplying him with resources even against the sanctions of the Western countries. Putin at least had oil and gas. Are there secret underground caverns filled with fuel products food products machinery parts spare tires. Sitting on a pile of US bonds does no good if you can't cash them in so what do they do after they take Taiwan and how long can they hold it if everything they import is cut off
Gold
But they CAN cash in US bonds. It is literally the most liquid investment in the world. There are buyers for them all over the world. If that changes, China will not be the only country in deep doo doo!
I tend to agree with you.
Please see my comments above.
Have you ever worked in manufacturing, mining or farming?
I'm not sure what that has to do with anything being discussed.
I've worked the majority of my life with my hands.
As a cabinetmaker for 20+ years an ASE certified master mechanic at Ford/Lincoln/Mercury dealerships as a "flat-rate" mechanic for over 15 years.
And what exactly are Your credentials, if I might ask sir?
America and countries in Europe have experienced similar situations, when manufacturers of shoes, clothes, home appliances, etc., flocked out of those countries. Korea and Japan have also experienced the same thing. But the situation did not make these countries experience an economic crisis or bankruptcy.
Why? Because it is a matter of competitive advantage, comparative advantage, and a matter of ordinary market mechanisms. If it is now starting to happen in China, it is indeed time for China to experience a similar transition after years of mass low-wage labor-based industries.
When China starts producing airplanes, electric cars, superconductors, etc. it is just a necessity for a country that has entered the "advanced" level. Selling 1 airplane is worth more than selling thousands of shoes from a dozen shoe factories in the Ningbo area.
That's also why America can still able to compete with China in term of GDP etc, even though the low-labor manufacturing industry left America many years ago.
Except this is not happening, and we know it's not happening. China's advanced industries are way too small and way too unprofitable to ever bear the load of bringing the country into an advanced economy the way TSMC did for Taiwan and the keiretsu and chaebols did for Japan and Korea. Meanwhile, China is ageing faster than any of these countries, which means its low-wage labour-based industries will fail even faster. They will enter the Japanese lost decades, but they will enter it with a far more brutal government, and far less resources, than the Japanese did in 1992.
You are right about one thing. The Chinese gambit was always going to be about being able to bridge that gap that Japan and the Four Tigers managed to bridge, and to become rich before you become old as a society. But it's already clear they've failed. There's nothing to bridge that gap at the needed scale, and the only companies with that scale are the real estate developers, and we all know what's happening to the real estate developers now.
This man's words rhyme with what the author Neil Howe said in his book "The Fourth Turning is Here." It may sound alarmist but history doesn't sit still. Caution should be the rule for this moment in time in life and investing. Not panicking and selling everything, but I am not buying a hell of a lot either.
invest in defense ;)
47:59 How are they spending that 1.5T? What's the vehicle they're using to flood the market with liquidity? FOMC purchases seem small by historical standards.
How's the Hong Kong peg working out?
Yez 😮
Mr. Bass is very interesting and knowledgeable, but some of his theories are a little wild.
You think? How about Putin as a genocidal fanatic? He seemed pretty rational in the Tucker interview.
Has he heard of the Biden crime family?
@@darwel007 So in your eyes he's not a genocidal fanatic because he spoke well in that one interview? Make it make sense. Let's completely ignore Putin's actions in Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine.
Want to see the interview where he told ukraine is a independent country and he will never invade?
@@darwel007
@@baramis575 Your view of Russia is probably formed by the hysterical dishonest mainstream media of the West. Since World war II the United States has engaged in over 200 military encounters. Millions of lives were destroyed. Over 1 million Iraqi children. The US goes to war without legitimate reasons.
@@baramis575 there are shitton amount of russian bots and zerohedge enjoyers in the comments for this one
When a person shows you who they are ........believe them,this includes countries and dictators
I love Kyle. He has an amazing point of view. I would really like to see him to do more interviews
That was a MASTER CLASS in global economic and financial analysis. Fantastic. Well done.
Glad you found it valuable! 🎉
Kyle Bass is prophetic in his predictions. It scary. His interview of Guo Wengui (5 years ago) has been proven correct
@@Dividendflywheel Thankfully we're at least now *permitted* to discuss that China may not be our best friend instead of people knee jerk calling folks racist for deigning to think about it.
The American flag on Bass’ shirt is backwards. Why the heck has he not fixed that or removed it ?
I think when the flag is on a sleeve or the side of a vehicle the blue starfield is towards the front, as though it were waving in the wind from the forward movement.
Thank you Kyle...
Thanks for watching!
Kyle Bass has great economic and geopolitical sense!
Thank you for boiling rarity down to words of truth! 53:30
Calling politicians in Russia and China names is not complete without labelling Western politicians the exact same names.
Very good. Profits belong to the people ('s party). So the Emperor will just take the profits.
Why is bit coin allowed to "inflate"? Why is the stock market allowed to "inflate"?
Kyle Bass a fascinating analysis of the world. More of the same please.
Thanks for watching the video! 🙌
Well done Clay. Thank you.
Thanks so much for watching! 🙌
bass' dismissive comment "China is number two, or three, or whatever you think it is" is interesting in it's dismissiveness. I think we can say that China (currently, downgrade pending) is number two, but with a much wider gap than reported numbers might suggest. The reason I say this is simply the scale of the impact they have in terms of who they are the major trading partner with.
Sure, China is a big and important economy, but not nearly as big and important as it has become to be believed. My best guess is that it's 1.5 X the next biggest economy, say 8-10 T.
@@keanphenglim5179 Cheers for the primer on "a smaller percentage of a bigger thing can be bigger than a larger percentage of a smaller thing." However, that is not really the point. There are serious questions about the numbers China puts out as well as serious quality issues. Malinvestment in infrastructure, vastly exceeding levels that can command an economic return leave only the debt as a lasting legacy. So, even if Chinese govt numbers are correct we need to consider growth relative to growth in debt. More than this though, incentives throughout the system are aligned to presenting a rosy picture so even if the CCP isn't lying, it is dependent on data that is, itself, built on lies.
yea like the only thing we buy from china is junk
@keanphenglim5179 thanks Chinese operative for your comment.
Lmfao raging wuamo@@keanphenglim5179
@@keanphenglim5179 Try and count your money without breathing. That is what China is trying to do. It has completely destroyed its ecological system. It is on the precipice of environmental collapse. And it's population is likely not more than 1,000,000,000. It's economy is reckless, not big. It like being on methamphetamine. You burn fast and seem big, when in fact you are sick and dying.
Kyle has been spot on about China. Should have listened to him years ago.
carefully written questions and prepared answers. smacks of a Biden presser
Hong Kong is the one place they don’t really have to worry about real estate as their is always a need at a certain place. Now elsewhere ….that is a much different situation. So you got the one part correct.
Wish we had a Bass in Australia
We have lots of bass there. They are delicious!
Yet your white board did not have the Achilles heel of the Singapore strait. White board Diego Garcia and Western Australia, etc.
He must have shorted a lot of money in China
Ummm. If inflation stops then it’s been tamed. Doesn’t matter how much inflation has occurred before that moment. It literally has been tamed once it stops.
But it might still cause permanent damage many years to come. Or am I missing something? Reporting inflation as percentage of last year is insane to me. That makes people forgot about the 5, 10 or 20 year inflation which is what really counts.
NOT everyone in Taiwan r originated from china ,
there r more than half a million aboriginals from south east Asia & easr Africa 3~ 40000 yrs ago
They better be worried, look what happened to the Uyghur.
@@Michael-Wil my grandpa is Uyghur and nobody cares about ur ethnicity here lol
@@Michael-Wil You mean like these people?
th-cam.com/video/JkRP_RbCEYk/w-d-xo.html&pp=gAQBiAQB
th-cam.com/video/dHxzLogzqkU/w-d-xo.html
I don't see people being dragged out to join war or have to move out like in gaza so that luxury properties can be built there.
There is a reason why US spent $90B for China disinformation.
58:10 sounds like he is doing something similar to what George Mitchell did in the Woodlands area of Houston metro
Fantastic information
Glad it was helpful! 🙌
A recent CNN report stated the Chinese navy is producing war ships 200 times faster than the U.S. Add to this the increased Chinese aggression toward neighboring country's shipping in the South China Sea (such as Thailand, etc.) and you get a picture of what might be China's future intentions toward Taiwan.
We know exactly what is China's intentions.
First of all your source is CNN.... remember the story about saddam and his "weapon of mass destruction"? or about the anthrax that's traced to US biolabs (ft detrick) instead? or lies about trump's Jan 06?
China position has been the same, it won't attack unless ROC declares independence. With that said, US just stationed 200 elite troops in kinmen island, about 3.5 miles from China's xiamen.
I'm actually confused by your logic, for tens of years, US military budget has been bigger than 8 other countries COMBINED & have been amassing A LOT of weapons! YET after INVADING so many countries, I don't see american saying that US intention has been very clear & it's very aggressive....
HOWEVER, when China, as the 2nd biggest country in the world, starting to modernize its armies, it's somehow becomes China preparing to invade the taiwan island??? Neighboring territorial disputes is normal, even US has it, have you seen India disputes with its neighbors as well? or how Indonesia drowned fishing ships that it considered illegal but being disputed by vietnam?
Thailand is an ally to China! - 90% of Thai economy is controlled by ethnic Chinese.
Please Visit the World first before Comments:-OUT DATED USA KEYBOARD WARRIORS😊😅😂
🤔1)Thailand is not in the South China Sea;2) Thailand is an ally of China.
While I agree with Mr Bass in large part, l would offer a different perspective as to why XJP so desperately feels the need to subjugate Taiwan. It has nothing to do with "ethnicity", as the aboriginal people were not of "Han" extraction, rather Austronesian.
It has nothing to do with an "historical claim", since Taiwan, formerly referred to as Formosa, had never been ruled by Mao or the ccp.
In point of fact, Chiang Kai Chek and the nationalists are the true legitimate rulers of all of China.
Nor is it about semi-conductors, because he knows that the very moment he launches an invasion, SCMI and the various "foundries" will commence the total destruction of all the infrastructure, equipment and technology vital to the manufacture of "chips".
All personnel will be evacuated, leaving him with only smoke and ashes of the facilities. The proverbial "poison pill" option.
Moreover, in a worst case scenario, were the plants to be miraculously taken by surprise somehow, China would be unable to operate them without the technical knowledge and expertise necessary.
To my main point then.
You may think my viewpoint to be overly simplistic, but here is why he must assert his dominance.
Taiwan's mere existence is both a thorn in his side and a slap in the face to the communist model. An anathema.
It is an ever present reminder that democracy and capitalism are flourishing, whilst his economy and totalitarian political system are on the verge of total collapse.
The citizenry of the mainland, his "subjects", can readily see and appreciate the myriad benefits to be had through self determination and freedom.
He can ill afford to allow democracy to rear it's ugly head and threaten his supremacy.
Essentially then, he must eradicate the foothold established by the Dutch, Portuguese and Japanese traders and farmers. The "colonists" from centuries ago, who brought with them their trading contacts who then established permanent trading posts, and additionally, shoe-making and metal working skills. To this day, Taiwanese crafted bicycles are considered to be "World Class", whereas those of the mainland inferior.
So, as you can plainly see, l have taken a thoughtful approach.
Ultimately then, it Does come down to economics and governance.
I sincerely hope and pray that XJP will kindly refrain from militaristic adventurism, as he has nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Eye opening
bs
The chinese sees it differently. From their perspective they've been tolerant of Taiwan separatists for too long. This is their general view, especially the younger generation. Xi is actually the older generation, who is more dovish on Taiwan.
Hope they're ready for a good go.
Uncle Sam's not playin.
There's absolutely nothing to gain for China, and everything to lose.
XJP has better think twice.
His number's just about up.
Nice assessment, it's the same infection that the KGB fears and is going to occur in Russia. Ppl want prosperity for their children. Just as has happened in all of the former USSR states that border the west. That creating thirst gets closer and closer.
and why do you guys think the southern border was left wide open?? its to invite more people into our country who will now want to work and save up more dollars.. this create supply demand. and when these people work and spend, this will end up more revenue generating through taxes.
>500 comments. One of the highest number on the channel. Not a sign of resignation…
Unfortunately, the people who are moving are voting for the same policies that forced them to move.
Wow. Great interview. Scary.
Thanks for watching!
Also remember no matter how a person sounds like they're right doesn't necessarily mean they're right as far as I can tell no one's omniscient so there's always a chance until there isn't or something like that
TIME is not real. our conscience lives in the present moment eternally.
while all around us the atoms change and move, giving an illusion of time.
all roads lead to judgement. as does every journey.
Judgement is coming for the racial supremacists of Israel.
All roads likely do lead to judgement but it’s your own judgement from an imperfect being with an imperfect understanding. It’s very likely you will not be judged and accepted from perfect beings with a perfect understanding IMHO.
Rare Earth metals - we have that in AUS, but you in USA probably have some too. All you have to do is look !
Thank our politicians for shipping our jobs away for corporations profit: now we face the consequences of the most corrupt
Great information thank you. God bless America and Israel.
Thank you for tuning in!
For years, we've anticipated China's downfall, yet it remains resilient. However, my concern now lies more with the economic stability of the U.S. Inflation is rising, layoffs are rampant, and small banks are being bought out by bigger banks, paving the way for monopolies in lending. It's imperative to address these domestic challenges
Is it cold in Beijing today?
"yet it remains resilient" - repressive, not resilient.
@@michaels4255 try to see everyday life in China from all the hundreds of youtube vvlogs of foreigners (american, canadian, australian, europeans, indians, etc.) so you can have an idea of today's China. your perception of China is stuck of the China about more than 20 years ago.
@@rap3208 Lol. Yeah, just like peope should trust visiting journalists to the USSR and China that said nothing bad was happening in the 30s and 50s. As someone who knows just a little bit of Chinese history myself, your naivety regarding China is absolutely hilarious.
@@Ealsante There were no youtube during the USSR days. There were no thousands of tourists in USSR. There were no mobile phones that can take everylittle photograps and videos of anything. Etc.. ETC.. See the BIG difference?
There are millions of ordinary tourists visiting china today (americans, canadians, indians, australians, europeans, etc.) with every camera, video camera , etc. available. They go to everywhere showing every walks of life. here on youtube alone are hundreds of their vlogs, you should try watching them and try to see if all the chinese shown were actors and the places shown were stage. Please use your critical thinking. you should realize that you are brainwashed by your journalist who are working for their own agendas.
Good analysis
Thanks for tuning in! 😀
Also, China doesn't want their treasuries frozen.
BrICS
The main reason for not buying as much.
I've heard whatever machinations take place, the BRICS transactions at their core are still dependent on the US dollar.@@user-zc8du8pf2j
Love when he said "rich people got richer" without a bat of an eye. This is all he cares about, not liberty or individual lives.
That is a bold assumption. He addressed what the Chinese do to family still in their home country if their demands aren’t met by workers in this country. He suggested not investing in China for other reasons as well. “The rich get richer” is a common adage and with the Federal Reserve Bank they will continue to get richer as the plan for crushing the middle and lower class unfolds.
This analysis sounds very smart. Respect to the speaker.
The challenge I have with is that it does not answer how China planned to finance its war on Taiwan giving its economy disaster, according to the speaker?
nice carpet!
Kyle Bass is one of the smartest people in the world. His warnings about China from 4-5 years back were ignored by many. This man gets it! His sharp analysis of Geopolitics are based on principles and morals. I respect him massively for that!
Glad you found it valuable! 💡
True ! He lost tonnes when he tried to short the market during the social upheaval in Hk
a comparison to Gordon Chang who has been warning the world from how many years back which I even forget. 😂
Kyle Bass interviewed Guo Wengui (Miles Kwok) 5 years ago. He predicted events that have since happened. SPOOKY
Who played Kyle bass in the big short movie?
This is great that the right things are said aloud. Thank you for bringing the clear point on thé world’s most prominent criminals: mr pu and mr xi
The calculus is shifting, nothing is static, risks remain ofc.
That’s what Americans want to hear. As long as you accuse china, you are considered to be intelligent and knowledgeable even though they lose money. That’s how emotional Americans are taught to be
Wuamo
Taiwan number 1 🇹🇼🇹🇼🇹🇼
Just say war. Constantly “kinetic” makes me question your integrity.
There are different types of wars. Economic war, Cold war, trade war.
Kinetic is very specific.
“Land is the only thing they’re not making any more of.” Chet Butler
What is a high-rise then?
What about the inflation that CEO’s/Companies’ Boards cause when they give top management these hyper-inflated salaries and perks???!!!!😮
I don't think you understand how inflation works.
May I know Kyle Bass’s X account to add on?
I'd rather listen to Howard Marks on China.
This guy and Gordon Change giving strong Paul Krugman-Fax machine vibes.
Gordon Chang
Awesome guest, thank you for sharing this out.
Thanks for watching! 🙏
Really great insights, thanks.
Thanks for tuning in!
Love Kyle Bass.
I’m wondering if Taiwan is a bit of a red herring as china has a presence in the pacific and Indian Ocean and controls all choke points from its bases in the Antartica. It has achieved much more than Japan had achieved during ww2 already in isolating Australia and New Zealand during a kinetic engagement.
This guy is worth listening to because he might be right.
Is Kyle Bass saying, "sell Apple?"
Taïwan is producing about 70% of all semiconductors (TSMC and UMC) add to that the immediate instability of the asian countries (Samsung and SK Hynix produce about 75% of worldwide DRAM). These two industries alone could collapse the world economy it Taïwan and South Korea were involved in a war.
A military invasion of Taïwan would have an impact on ALL mjor stock exchanges and large multinationals. Forget about Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, AMD, basically everything that needs adavanced chip technolgy would collapse. No US sanctions could hurt China more than we would be hurt.
If you're afraid of an invasion of Taïwan, then stop investing anywhere.
Invading Taïwan would be as stupid as Russia invading Ukraine ... However threatening to invade Taïwan, and then trade this trade against something more useful (Like Mandshuria or Siberia) might be a very poweful chess move. China could use the Russian resources to feed it's economy. Invading Taïwan would destroy Chinese Belt & Road initiative and economic expansion.
GDP growth and stock market growth are different animals. The US GDP graw 72% over the last 15 years while S&P500 grew 340% (info disclosed in the video).
Therefore I'm using the reasoning in reverse: It's not because the GDP grew 500% in China over the kast 15 years that the stock market had to grow.
But I agree that investing in China is a high risk of losing everything.
China uses 80% of all manufactured chips. The sanctions made CHina self-sufficient in over 7nm chips which is actually the biggest used chips such as in appliances, toys, electronic gadgets, cars, etc.. This is why the profit of all the microchip manufacturers dropped drastically. China probably won't be back as customers of the outside manufacturers from japan, Korea and taiwan.
All they are lacking now is in the sub-7nm chips. The west kept saying several years ago that China is generations behind but last year they came out with a 7nm chip of their own. China is not actually generations behind but is on their heels. they will destroy the chip industry by making everything cheap in a few years.
All this time I thought China could actually use its holdings of treasury against us 😂
They are selling off their treasuries and buying gold.
yea but they got a lot of gold!
😂😂😂😂😂😂 almost 10 years now with the same narrative
Kyle Bass is brilliant but my quibble with never invest in communism ought to be never invest in cultures with a history of authoritarianism. That's the true risk because a strongman leader whether under communism or otherwise undertakes actions that benefit the strongman (and very few others) including things like war behaviors and business appropriations.
I worry that the moralism of Kyle’s standpoint - and I agree with this - might blind him to China’s advantages
This guy (Kyle Bass) is EXCELLENT.
FINALLY someone is saying publicly what everyone else knows but which no one else has dared to say aloud.
When’s the last time you ever supported the Tea Party?
william only got 40% of total vote in taiwan
After the 10,000 Um, I tuned out.
Awesome double awesome interview! Love hearing from KB!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Do not be that gullible !
This is not the right guy to talk about China.
Someone really interesting and actually knowledgeable on this topic would be Michael Pettis.
Bass is a mouth piece for the West.
What is your point
Which part was untrue?
And you are a mouth piece for Master Xi?
Kyle do you know a 5 star hotel to get a reasonably priced breakfast?
LOL
Excellent interview.
Thank you so much! 💯
Kyle has disgraced himself many times, and lost fundholder value many times, betting against the HKD peg. He gets way more air time than the small market cap of his fund deserves. Having said that, this is a good interview, and many of his points are spot on.
Kyle, my apologies let’s just say it’s a slow Sunday night while I’m watching this. but I maintain that the majority of what you relate becomes moot once social unrest becomes unmanageable! housing completely collapsed! Youth unemployment north of 30%. deflation taking hold. X has shot himself in the foot not with the gun but a machine gun.!!!
Fantastic interview, Kyle Bass's assessment is always spot on.
Thanks so much for tuning in!
Thanks for having Kyle Bass speak so freely without interruption. Kyle has a realistic view of the world. China, Russia and other authoritarians are the enemies of freedom, happiness and prosperity. I don't think China will start a war because it would end any possibilities for their success extending out to the wider world win or lose but then I'm looking at that logically. I live in Asia. There is very little logic to be found in this part of the world. Face culture is a disaster, everything here is just that, a facade. The west is the one playing the long game, saying the right words while carefully extricating itself as it doubles its manufacturing with new trade deals like NAFTA 2. N America is poised for huge success for many decades to come, much of the rest of the world, not so much. Ex. Just look at China disintegrating before our eyes. Their latest ploy is dumping massive numbers of cheap, flammable EVs on the global market. Just say no America!
The Biden crime family is the enemy of freedom.
In Kyle we Trust.
Do not be to sure about that agricultural thing. Without tractors there is no income generated by the land. It costs 1K $ just to let diagnostisize a problem on a tractor. Who can afford that. Farmers will go left and right bankrupt in the west including US. Machinery costs have outpriced already farm crop yields. Farmers just will get bankrupt and sell out to financiers. Do you think big farming corporations will farm better than the middle to low class? They think only to parcell the land for real estate and turn the farms into rent houses at the end. Do not be to sure about the profitability of farming.
Is China not buying lots of oil from Russia and paying in Chinese Yen?