Alibaba Stock Analysis - is BABA a Good Buy Today?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 มิ.ย. 2024
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Thank you for the update Jimmy! Would be great to have an update video on the big banks as well :)
Baba long term❤
Love it!
It does look like it reached to an attractive price, especially when it was 60/80 $ range ... I understand who owns Baba and sees an opportunity as well as who doesn't want to own it and sees the risk of it.
Thank you Jimmy, I’m also a bag holder right now like urself. My entry point is lower just under 100, but I also do think there’s a lot of potential to it and it outweighs the risks.
Why don't you sell?
@@macfin4862 I’m not looking to utilize the tax lost harvest at the moment. Plus I strongly believe this is a great business at a great price. Time will tell.
@@idonotcarenowsorry I misread your original post. Thought you'd said you don't think there's lots of potential 😂
@@macfin4862 no worries brochacho, no harm, no foul.
Perfect timing as always! You're the best
110 USD? nice... you bought at a good time... I bought way more expensive... no planning to sell soon!!
Hi! You are Jimmy 😊
Jimmy can you answer a question. So what happens to my stock in my portfolio? Does it stay the same, or will these companies that are separating show up in my portfolio? I have around 40 shares. Thank you in advance. I asked a few channels and never got a straight answer.
There is more then one Option
Option 1: Alibaba Spins off a Segment, in that case your Alibaba Share will lose some Value but you get the Spin-off as Shares.
Option 2: Alibaba brings a part of a Segement to the market, the Segments does an IPO and Alibaba mostlikely still owns majority. Nothing for you Changes directly.
Option 3: They sell part of the Business to Investors directly (Private equity), Nothing for you changes directly.
In Option 2 and 3 BABA gets Cash for part of there Segment, so its a 0-0 Change on the Balancesheet
@@Tippix3 thank you for taking the time. Much appreciated.
@Tippix3 even if you own the ADR, not the HK shares?
@@vespertillio8225 I'm sorry, i cant say anything about that, i only buy HK-Shares. I guess in the worstcase your Broker will sell the Spin-off for you and pay it out to you. Better do your own reseach on that Case 😅
Stock based compensation!
the fair value is above what I paid for it.
Sounds fair to me.
AI and cloud storage is a scary combination.
07:20 Im very impressed BABA did so well in Q3 2023!! can't wait to see their Q1 2025 results next week
no one has noticed this despite it being the key element of the evaluation ! idiots
Alibaba's Fiscal year ends in march of 2023, It can make things confusing sometimes
By Q1 2025 Alibaba will be 500 dollars
@@ryanbaileyboxing which by then will be about enough for 1 happy meal at mcd's :-/
Thanks Jimmy.
Could you give us an update about Meta?
Meta is getting close to a sell. However it's important to note that the price is constantly being revised up due earnings increasing and inflation. Just hold it forever.
@@xvx4848 just sold half of my Meta. Not sure to be right, hoping to find a drop after earnings release
I see a big problem with the split! For cloud e.g. investors only get a dividend. This will happen in the next 12 months where interest rates are still high, so cloud valuation will be much lower than the long term potential. So if you cant buy in with your dividend at a reasonable price fast you are screwed
So @ a $94 share price the shareholder is getting $34 in cash & the business for $60 a share. Better deal than anything else out there.
Until direct warfare between us delists it and u lose 100% of your money
It has a dictator risk
If you want to hold any Chinese security for more than 5 years, I suggest studying diligently Chinese history and politics in addition to financial data.
Thank you Jimmy. A question : P/E ratio is above 53. Isn't it expensive to buy now??
Price to FCF is much better
The PE ratio is not the only thing you can look at, sometimes it gives a wrong perspective. Sometimes the PE ratio is very low 3-5 when this is because a company came into a lot of money 1 quarter, and sometimes very high because they spent or had to pay a lot 1 quarter. BABA had 40 bn in FCF almost, thats a 20% FCF yield which is insane. They have a huge stake in Ant Group worth 100 bn or so. They have 60 bn in cash or so. It's very very undervalued.
But forward p/e is 9 so thats pretty cheap
Bloomberg recently reported that the logistics division Cainao would be IPOed before year end at a 20bn valuation
GREAT VID Jimmy, but one question, this spin off will result in all the shareholders of BABA will get shares of the different new companies, cash? all of them will be listed in the US or anywhere?
Thank
Jimmy videos once a month?
I have some BABA. Wish I didn't. Wouldn't buy it again.
Then sell
Why's that, you bought at the top?
@@matthewroberts6988 Not at the top, thankfully, but about $70 higher than it is now, haha.
@@johnwilson8482 yh fair enough, I've got a starter position at 90, as long as China don't invade Taiwan I think it will pretty well
@@matthewroberts6988 I wish I'd waited to buy until $90! :-D
Stock investing doesn’t always go as planned but nothing has changed for BABA. They are still undervalued. This last drop was probably the last one and an opportunity to get more shares. The second half of this year will be a little more positive. China is still coming out of Covid.
Thoughts on $DQ stock? Their revenue is roughly a 50% larger than their market cap, it trades at a PE of x1.9, for each $ of liabilities they have 7.7$ of assets and their FCF margins sit at a whopping 41%.
not great, should shave analyzed the sum of the parts separately and added together when there is a separation.
Why Alibaba decrease while Amazon share increase?
I bought at $92/share, been waiting on a rebound
I miss old Jimmy who would've done sum of the parts
I wanted to, but some of the numbers were missing to come up with a reasonable sum of the parts calculation. 😬 sorry about that
@@LearntoInvest Ok makes sense then
i dont like baba. Growth rate is pretty lackluster and china pretty much sabotaged the momentum it did have. I need to see more before i consider adding this to my portfolio.. You said it yourself, its been considered over valued for a WHILE
The $205 fair value understates just how discounted this business is.
They are currently valued at $240B market cap.
- $60B USD net cash
- $30B operating income just from their "core segment"
- adjusting for cash, they're at trading at 6x adjusted FCF
Other 5 LoBs are growing faster, but either at breakeven or unprofitable.
With China re-opening in January, we will very likely begin to see a return to double digit growth in the coming quarters.
There are real and significant political concerns, but this discount seems excessive. The thing that bothers me, is as Jimmy mentioned, this discount has persisted for years. It also concerns me that they are not aggressive buying back shares. Management claims to have a $40B buyback. That sounds good until you realize it's over a multi-year period, and there's only $20B remaining for the next 2 years.
The discount persist for years because the uncertainty is still there. People are not sure the economy is going to bounce back after 2 years of lock down. Things will definitely change when suddenly all companies report good earnings. Take example tencent recent earnings cause other tech stocks to rout at lease 5 percent. That's coming from a single company good earnings, wait till a group of companies all report the trend and see
Essentially if the worst case scenario doesn't materialise(direct warfare between China-Usa), investors make money in the long run. At the current valuation i like the upside.
Biggest Investor "Softbank" is selling near all its shares in Alibaba, so i think there is something going on. Softbank held around 30% of Alibaba and will reduce it to around 3% in the future.
If you believe market inefficiency continue to buy and hold. If you believe in market efficiency do wait for a good move.
No
nope
After following the company over 2 years now it’s safe to say on a fundamental level the business is very undervalued. The issue is that the market is extremely nervous about geopolitical tensions. We are in the middle of a tech trade war between U.S and China.
My best guess is that Alibaba will continue to grow free cash flow and be an exceptional business however, it’s impossible to know what will happen in the geopolitical landscape therefor will trade at much lower multiples.
Worst case scenarios = U.S bans Investment in any Chinese company, Taiwan invasion, shares confiscation. In this instance stock holders will lose all value even tho Alibaba is a great business.
That's exactly what happened to investments in Russia
The stock keeps falling non stop.That means it is not a good investment
The other channel does this . ignoring Chinese politics has not worked out well for them
Yeah you have to take in to account that the CCP is wanting a piece of the Alibaba pie and that might not go as well as everyone seems to think it will. The corruption in Chinese businesses connected to the CCP is on a cosmic scale.
I don’t understate news says, it’s the end of times, banks merging and collapsing, prices sky rocketed and the market is crashing. But I see our portfolios, growing faster then ever. My uncles was just laughing at the news the other day, they said something, that stuck, my uncle said why don’t everyone learn to work their money, my uncles reply was, if everyone knew then no one would win. 😂 😂 😂
@THE GAMER BONELESS I never listen to the news .. News is alwasy doomsday and fear mongering.
🤣🗿🥂
I'm not sure geopolitical issues should be ignored by long term investors, investments in Russia have been definitely wiped out
Not only were they wiped out and they might remain that way for a very unclear amount of time - lots and lots and lots of people, channels, analysts, experts said it was very unlikely what happened would happen.
@@MagicNash89 I had an ETF on Russia, it's being liquidated for pennies on the dollar, we will never see the money again since those ETF are going to be permanently shut down, it's not a temporary suspension.
@@sebholding Ouch!!! Sorry to hear 😢
@@sebholding ETFs are different. Stocks are suspended and may still possibly recover, but this is all a very big IF and depends on how the war ends.
I am getting increasingly scared of China invading Taiwan. I might sell out of china and buy Japanese stocks like Buffet. They are lowering intrest rates and the economy may see a boost.
If China invades I don’t think you’ll be safe in any stock brother
Chinese market is not tradable. Period.
Alibaba is literaly only down because its chinese
Geopolitical issue is what determines its value…..so stop your silly fundamental analysis 😂
I was gonna subscribe to your channel then I see you're trying to analyze a Chinese stock. Can you do Russian stocks next?😂
What a poor choice for reviewing this stock.. It's splitting into 6 companies and the stock will be a big hit and overseas investors will run for the hills.. stay away.
Hi I'm Jimmy