Common Michael, Nick needs to pull his neck in. At 3.15 he says that there aren't people on TH-cam commenting that have significant amounts of cash on the sidelines waiting to invest. Well they do. Smart investors who understand leading indicators/precursors cashed up and exited late 2021, so they're sitting on cash. We could turn the tables on his statement and say 'People who profess to be subject matter experts in economics and investment wouldn't be doing walk and talk vlog on TH-cam'. The fact of the matter is that one mans ceiling is anothers floor in investing. Will property go down further? Very likely as any constraint on credit by definition means less $ chasing property. The real issue though is to consider by how much do you think property will go down by? Lots of investors have exited the market, hence the best time to buy can be RIGHT NOW if you're the only bidder at an auction of a distressed sale. Consider also in certain markets (Like here in the UK) there are far more people than houses, and everyone HAS to live somewhere... so if you buy a house below replacement value, then by implication you have a triple A investment so long as you are confident of not requiring access to its capital (Who want's to have a lot of $ at the banks which have a risk of collapse?). Like everything, the market overshoots, prices too high, then prices too low. If you can see and acquire something that is mispriced then eventually its $ at the bank. (NB: What will happen if the FED lowers the base rate? How would that affect institutional and regular investors? If you want to mitigate timing the market then $ cost average in over the next 18 months, buy a house every six months, you won't get the bottom but you'll get a good low average and most importantly get a chance to purchase property that would never come onto the market during an uptick, and most likely to rebound the most).
Well, you have houses in the 50 to 60k in places like Western Pennsylvania or Ohio. People need to relocate to those affordable areas to buy a house. That's about it.
@@Kevinw4040it’s both, prices and rates are high, either rates come down to sustain prices, or prices come down to sustain rates, they’re two heads of the same coin. At the end of the day all people care about is their monthly payment.
Patience is the word. I remember in 2005 and 2006 asking myself why the bubble had not burst yet. I think it always takes longer than is logical , tough to time it though.
It doesn't happen overnight. Bernanke kept saying, thebans are good, there's no crash all good. People are struggling and banks are in trouble. One day its crashing, the day after that, no it not crashing. These guys too, ClICKBAIT.
My Favorite Fairy Tale is that EVERYBODY is broke as a joke except the wannabe real estate moguls on TH-cam. Some people will have to unload their homes but to think you are going to buy prime, beach front properties for pennies on the dollar I think you are delusional. Finally, who in their right mind would buy property in Frisco?
Yes, but that was the opposite of now. They were holding/trying to pay for a house worth half what they borrowed. Houses are now with twice what people paid yet they cannot sell because rent or own...they can't get back in.
Whether or not there is a crash, the best thing to do is to save money, stay out of debt, and buy when you're ready. Wait for mortgage rates to come down.
@njerseydavid 😞 No. Offer wasnt accepted, the seller got upset and removed the listing. Not a single day goes by where I don't look and hunt. My goals are in place, and I know what I'm looking for. Nothing in my market is penciling out. Wedge, cash flow, PRICE etc
Last year houses were selling within 2 weeks where I live, even tho they were very overpriced.....Now, houses for sale just sit there with no buyers. No one is even looking at them now. A very different story now. People I've talked to say prices need to drop at least 30% for them to become interested. You two are spot on!
Agreed! I'm in FLA and the insurance issue is adding to the problems is higher utility and taxes it's outrageous and intentional. I expect foreigners from a particular nation will be gobbling up everything they can find.
Oh yeah, they are called Blackrock which China owns most of the stock. They have over 30 billion just waiting for the picking. They will rent the home back to the person they got it from.
China is most likely to sell property then keep on holding it the country is full of crap homes and allot of high unemployment. 8 million business closings.
While the data makes for interesting commentary, it means very little. Until you see everyone piling in because they think the markets going to go and go and go we haven’t seen a top
@@straightdrive6192 Yes. The data is accurate. People who explain why markets are going to go lower usually have the best data and make a ton of sense. They’re just usually wrong despite the data
It's not a binary position: right/wrong. That's overly simplistic and reeks of not understanding markets. Housing markets don't "crash" overnight. It's a slow drain. There was no "crash" after the '08 downturn, either. It still took 4-5 years to get back to acceptable pricing. And the "housing market" is an aggregate of a massive number of smaller markets. Prices have dropped precipitously in some areas and remained steady or even inflated in others.@@jgg204
@@MichaelBordenaroall that is going to do is push the cost from equity which at least is yours and you own to insurance and HoA cost. Your cost are the same and one is good for you. Clueless channel lol
People buying a house right now at this peak are going to live to regret it when the bubble bursts within the next year. They won't be able to afford it, but also will have to sell at a loss with no equity. Now is a horrible time to be buying anything real estate wise.
How will it burst? Will all the ARM people used to buy homes with start making people go into default? 39% of people in the country own their home outright another 28% have low fixed rates with big money down. Tough to crash a market with fixed rates.
@@jbeyers84 you can keep saying it but a crazy isn’t coming. Quick stats 39% of people in the country own their home outright, 28% have 50% equity on low fixed rates with lots of money down. This isn’t 2007, the kid in the video is a clickbait king he has been calling for a crash for 3 plus years and continues to push it back. You know a crash isn’t happening.
And when rates drop, and they won’t drop fast, they will have to bring a lot of cash to the table because the price they bought it for has crashed. They’ll have to stay married to the rate and the home. Or sell the home at a loss.
Crash is the wrong term. A real estate correction takes months if not years to play out, the whole event deemed a “crash” after the the smoke clears. Prices need to drop a lot more to qualify for crash status. We are in mild correction territory now in select areas, if it keeps up, then we will be in crash territory. Real estate is local, so we will more than likely have both crash areas and correction areas.
Absolutely correct. 1928 there were signs of distress on mortgages. By 1929 it escalated to a full blown crisis. 2006 housing abruptly lost its steam and stagnated until late 2007 when foreclosures started happening. By 2008 prices precipitously started dropping. Right now we are in a stagnated market. It could go up or down. If prices start to climb and break trend above previous highs the path of least resistance is up. If it fails to make new highs the trend will be down. Speculation about mass unemployment is neither here nor there. It has not happened so it is not reality. High unemployment is also not synonymous with falling home prices. The entire decade of the 1970s were plagued by high unemployment (higher than the Great Recession) and housing prices rose 140% from 1970-1980. Despite very high interest and unemployment.
Yeah but Crashbro sounds much better then Correctionbro. Crash=fear and panic, Correction=normal market reaction. Understand the goal here is to create views, sensationalism does that, not boring typical market cycle stuff.
I perform about 2000+ home insurance inspections on the Treasure coast of Florida each year and have noticed I have not come across ONE new home buyer with a loan this year. Sales were booming in 21/22 and now the only buyers I meet are from New York and just sold a million dollar home and paid cash for a newly built home in a new development.
I work with a large Title company and I noticed 98% of the closings I do with them are small LLCs( flippers). I also noticed older people cashing out and moving closer to their kids out of state or smaller more rural areas
One would think a pro flipper would be more intelligent. Also, Zillow just bought a friends house in Sacramento for way overvalue. Their monthly offer to him just went up 60K and he took it, even when not wanting to sell initially. Most of the institutional buyers are way behind the times and many billions in debt. They will be dumping thousands of homes soon and that will trigger the crash.
I just discovered this channel yesterday and can’t stop myself from binge watching. The videos do a great job explaining what I have been feeling in my gut regarding the housing market and the economic environment in general. I feel like I’m not alone anymore! I’m sure Michael mentioned it in his videos somewhere, but wonder if the resumption of student loan payments could be a triggering event that takes down the house of cards.
@@BangFamilyvideo With interest rates a nice house in most towns not in a fecal hole area would require a mortgage rate of around $3500 to $4000 a month. You must think 100K goes as far as it did back in 91'
I never felt the previous downturns at all. I was working as a nurse (RN) so wages were good. This time, however my husband and I are retired and living on social security. Thank God however that everything is paid for, house, land, and vehicles.
Both of my favorite peeps together! It’s a dream to see Nik and Michael together on this initiative! You guys are simply amazing! Thank you for always being there to guide us though this market volatility and transition! 👏🏽👍🏽
Imagine in 06-07 when all people had for news was mainstream media. That’s why so many people for caught off guard. This time around, you can get real info like from Nick and Michael which allows more nuanced decisions. Thanks for the daily videos! Another data point would be interesting to look at Nick is the average retiree saving? For example, my grandmother sister and her husband are about to sell their family home and plant on renting until they die (they are 75) because they cost of living had gone up so much they no longer have the choice. Their house is paid off and is about 1m$ so that should be enough to cover their living expenses till the end, but I wonder how much inventory will flood the market as I’m sure they can’t the only one! I also want to say that they were more than financially comfortable all their lives and still have about 100k in cash savings yet they are still in this boat!
No market crash in Kansas City! A coworker put his house up for sale a week ago. It's already sold. But most of us are just waiting for the prices and/or interest rates to come down. Rent's still reasonable here in Overland Park KS, and we get to skip all of the homeowner costs, including snow, grass cutting & landscaping & buying all of that yard & gardening equipment. Maintenance is just an email to mgmt, and it's usually fixed same day. We have great rentals here. This is an affluent area, great schools, great place to walk dogs, etc. I pay $1,038 that includes my carport, two free washers & dryers next door, water, sewer, trash and heat paid. I only pay lights @ $750 annually for a one bedroom. Not thinking of moving coastal. Raised in Hawaii. There, you're living with live volcanos and tsunamis from ALL directions. Tsunamis hit in 1923, '46, 52, 57, 60 and 64, and they are due again. I can't live with the FL stress of being hit twice by a hurricane and/or tornado. You have to pick your safety tolerance.
I've been saying from the get-go that we don't even need a true unemployment spike for the housing market to correct. I've seen the plummeting salary ranges firsthand. Even if everyone who gets laid-off finds another job the very next day, the likelihood of them finding one that pays as much or more than their last job is very slim. Over the last 8 months, salary ranges for software development positions especially have plummeted.
Hey man, I don't know you and I just stumbled onto this channel... I live in Boise Id.. and the housing market here is not crashing... With every dip-wad that can afford it from Cali, Oregon, and Washington moving here in DROVES!!! Trying to escape the idiotic politicians that they voted for.... It's not crashing here my friend, it's still crazy.
Awesome, my two favorite real estate youtubers!!! Nick's been in California. Had a feeling you two would hook up. Lots of valuable insight here thank you Nick and Michael!
I'm in a small town in a low cost of living area, every day I check Zillow and watching the sold homes has been pretty interesting. I've been seeing homes stay on the market longer, sometimes multiple price cuts and then often it still sells for 20k or so under the last asking price. Some desirable and well-priced homes are still selling quick and over asking, but otherwise its a totally different ballgame than a few years ago.
I wish I lived there too. Live in Montana and we used to be a small town, invaded by California and Texas, 44k in 2020 and in some months 6k new residents, it's rough. Our home prices have more than doubled and rent has tripled in 2 years and 8 months. Looking for another state, small town. : o)
@@MeadowDay i bet Texas is just like here, non-stop, they just keep coming. It is like a nightmare and you don't wake up. "They" Californians and Texans stay and here comes their friends and family. UGH!
@@jayneweaver8695California native...California was once wide open space...irony being people invaded California from other states and destroyed it...I think beautiful places will always be discovered, invaded, and destroyed. Social media doesn't help
In reality it's a shame it takes a recession to handle greed and these greedy people never understand it will catch up to them eventually and the economy has a way of bringing these individuals down to earth and when these same greedy people get a taste of what they have done to others it can be an eye opening experience for them and right now greed is rampet and the piper is coming for them one by one it's going to be interesting this time next year
Two of my favorite guys. Love all the stats and especially the comparisons of the run ups of the mid 2000s to now. I work in large lot rural subdivisions. For the year or 2 before the pandemic I was asking the engineers and surveyors I work with if it felt like the run up to 2008. In geology the principle of "uniforminatarism " says that the past is the key to the present. Look at how certain types of rocks are being formed now tells you the ancient environments that similar rocks formed under. Similar thing here with debt to earning ratios, % of savings % of income sucked up by house payments ect. While we cant avoid what ever wild ride is in store we can at least try to be prepared
Do you think that condos will be the first home vs. townhouses since they are usually cheaper than townhouses? What percentage drop in prices constitutes a "CRASH"? Is it 20 or 25%? Or is it year over year drops?
The problem I see is the second rates drop even a little bit the bidding wars return. There just isnt enough supply out there (thanks to blackrock, etc) unless you are able to relocate to someplace nobody wants to live in the middle of nowhere. Otherwsie, rates drop, demand spikes, and then prices stay up... there's just so much pent up demnad. Half of all millennials are living with their parents (due to unafforability) and as soon as they can afford, they are going to jump at the chance to enter the market.
It's called a shit load of liquidity in the system that the first round and a half of interest rate hikes has just started drying up. How many rounds of interest rate hikes do we have left to hit and dry up the liquidity or the lag affect? 5 or 6 still left to hit as each round take 8-16 months to hit the economy. We are in stage 5 of the lead up to a recession and we always have a rally before the recession. 1) Inflation, 2) interest rate hikes, 3) demand falls, 4) Price cuts to make up for the lack of demand, luring everyone into thinking that inflation is under control, 5) job openings fall (poor JOLTS report), 6) rise in unemployment, 7) recession over. In between 6 and 7 the market crashes and capitulates.
It was nice seeing you guys walking together. I noticed Nick walking the other day and I thought wow he's doing Mikes gig, now I see them together. WHOOP WHOOP! Now you guys should grab Economic Ninja. Hahaha
Hey guys! One more point that’s being missed here that a lot of people aren’t thinking about. The default rate and foreclosure #’s on homes are being manipulated, as well. Think about this. I’d venture to guess that the majority of people, who get to a point where they know they are heading towards foreclosure, will give in and sell to these lowball real estate investors companies, which would prevent those potential foreclose if Ron ever showing up in statistics as foreclosures. Basically, real estate investors can keep those numbers from looking bad by buying up all those homes at lowered prices. That’s exactly what’s going on right now. Look at how many REI’s started calling homeowners in Maui after the fire there. REI’s are going to be lowballing every financially squeezed homeowner out of their house. Foreclosure #’s may not change that dramatically for a while, even though people are actually losing their homes. Those people are also getting conveniently put back into the rental market pool, which additionally helps the real estate investor. It’s a win win for them.
Great collaboration. I enjoy both of your channels and gain a lot of knowledge from you both. I believe ball outs will happen when the official market crash happens. I believe the market in CA is already crashing. I’ve been following tons of house reductions, & people selling for less than they purchased the home a year ago on Zillow and other sites. Thanks for always keeping it real and giving us your honest opinion. Best wishes from North Bay Area. Take a trip down highway 37 to the other side of the North Bay. Great trails for you to walk over here as well. Cheers my friend
A house in maine that sold in 2015 for 109k, then sold in 2021 for 120k, just went pending for 399k!! People moved to maine in droves paying high class prices for the locals homes where most are in poverty. It’s insane!
I’m from “back then” and here’s what WE WERE NOT DOING: eating out, using credit cards (paid cash for gas, checks at grocery store), having debt (other than house payment and car payment, most of us rented and drove used cars), buying big toys, extravagant travel and vacations (we went to family reunions for vacations, usually in our cars), tons of clothes and shoes/jewelry. We were not in debt, we lived within our means, had a job or two, had a savings account, and we were happy. I maintain that ppl’s spending habits, not living on a budget and life choices are main factors for todays financial woes.
Agree.. people are having one kid esp in Asian countries .. but they are those who have an elite kinda lifestyle.. esp urban India... More international vacations ... Latest car.. iphone.. American branded stuff .. laptops ..purses .. etc.. it is just ridiculous competition
🔥4 min. in & you guys are in tandem, great questions(that NO ONE else tackles), great response(that NO ONE else deep-dives in). You guys make a great team, while simultaneously having your own channel/style/format/real estate info/real estate -true- data.🙏thanks for all of the hardwork you guys put in💪
Oh man! Once I saw Nick doing more walk and talks I thought he may do a vid with Michael. Then I saw they were both in CA, then I knew it was inevitable.
Bought my house in NY in 2011 right at the bottom of the market. I’m a retired cop, 2 things we’re keeping me in NY 1. Wife makes good money( nurse) 2. We live in a good school district for our kids. Now NYS attorney General Lelitta James has come out and said school districts can not block Illegal immigrants from enrolling in their districts they do not need to provide documentation that they live within the district. That’s it, that’s game over for me I’m not going to pay $14,000 in property taxes to send my kids to school and pay for these Illegals kids also!!
I hope you don’t live in Rockland County. Plenty of Law Enforcement and Firefighters live there. From what you are saying, the schools may all be heading to becoming like Ramapo Central School District. A complete disaster. Think about moving to Viera in Brevard County Florida. There are plenty of Medical Centers on The Space Coast. Rockland County Executive ED Day refused to take in what Mayor Adams was trying to send to live in a local Hotel. I’m sad to say it’s going to happen anyway.
As far as I can see the Democratic party see a problem like illegal immigrants invading our country and instead of solving the problem at the boarder like Trump attempted, the Democrats do not take the position to solve the problem BUT assume the position to finnancially profit off the problem at the taxpayers expense to fill there pockets and friends of the party.
Thats only nyc. Wont be happening in affluent suburbs. Although hamptons schools have no white kids at all. Theyre a minority and get no minority protections. I agree though. Im at the brink with NY too. They will lose loads more population in next 5 years.
Being in the DFW area and working with Title companies I can tell you it’s calming, but people are still buying especially new homes( which are more affordable with the builder’s credits) it’s said that Texas is the next CA, meaning prices being in the millions. It’s unaffordable here in decent areas
It's only because of lack of inventory, crash bros say. As if inventory/supply is 1 of 37 different factors, with 36 of them pointing to a crash, and only tight inventory keeping prices up. Yet, the only two things that determine price are demand and supply, it's only 2 factors, not 37. If supply is tight, then prices will stay up. Words like "absurd", "tremendous", "lowest, lowest", accompanied by lots of hand waving, are meaningless prose. It only depends on supply and demand, nothing else matters. Supply is low, demand is high. No crash.
The most likely scenario is that home owners and builders will continue to benefit from their monopoly and keep supply low. They don't need or want housing sales to bounce back. They are making record profits. When they have to buy, they can just pay cash. It's over, we have become a nation of renters, is time to move.
@@MichaelBordenaro and yet, I just read that around 1/3 of current home sales are paid in cash. Even if most homeowners don't have enough equity they're still not going to sell at the same time. The supply will continue to be low for the next decade and the existing problems will only be compounded and become the new normal... It already has.
@@MustbeTheBassestyou know what sucks is I agree with this. The most obvious outcome usually ends up correct. The most obvious outcome is things going to shit for the average person. After seeing so many videos, this feels like the new normal. There is nothing really stopping it from being so. Enough people make enough money though to keep the overinflated markets going and that's all that matters. Everyone else just gets by. I hope we're wrong
I love Nick he’s for the people! He gave me so much hope when home prices were going crazy. some TH-camrs were recommending us poor people, just move to poor people land. Yet here we are. All these greedy investors are going to pound sand 😈
Nick's perspective on down payments seems off. People were putting 22% down pre-crisis, yet the crisis still occurred. Now, with an average of 17% down and no issues, it's clear that the 20% rule isn't as ironclad as once thought. Plus, with homes costing 2x-3x more than 15 years ago, that percentage represents a lot more money. Even if all recent buyers defaulted (which is a huge 'if'), it wouldn't massively affect the market because sales volume is so low now. With so many locking in at 3% rates, they're set. And those with low credit scores? Higher rates mean many can't even enter the housing market
You both have great channels. I really enjoyed this video. It's great to listen to both of you bounce your options of the real estate market off each other.
Nick originally called for a housing crash to begin in late 2021. Since then his predictions have continued to be pushed back and he’ll never admit to being wrong. Sorry but without humility from him I can’t value his analysis
The timing and stuff like this is very hard to nail down. That’s why I’ve tried to stay away from giving hard and fast dates and predictions because we really don’t know.
Comparing the housing market in 2023 to say, 1975, is like comparing the housing market of 1985, when I bought my first house, to the housing market of 1937. Both are 48 years apart. The comparison lacks credibility.
There are two things that could change this market to alleviate prices and bring them back down to the natural supply/demand levels. Either one, the government will have to, substantially, penalize real estate investors form buying up properties that they do not live in as their primary residences…or two, innovators and entrepreneurs will find better solutions for housing that’s much more affordable and can’t be manipulated by the current system, i.e tiny houses, multiple families cohabiting, people learning to sleep in their cars/vans/RV’s, housing being built by 3D printers, Boxables, converted sheds and people just learning how to live without a roof over their heads. The point is, the current market model is broken and REI’s with cash are taking advantage of it. The model needs to change, and they will get stuck sitting on a mountain of overpriced homes that no one wants or can afford. It’s slowly starting to happen. We’re seeing a massive evolution in living standards, and we don’t even realize it.
Nick mid 2021: Phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started. Nick early 2022: Phase 2 of the housing crash is just getting going Nick late 2022: this is what I call the almost last phase of this housing crash. Nick early 2023: Phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started. Nick mid 2023: Housing is going to crash no matter what, here’s a bright beautiful chart. Nick late 2023….phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started..
It's all getting a bit silly with these guys. Hoping to capitalize on the broken clock being right twice a day phenomenon. When the crash eventually happens - because it's the inevitable nature of market cycles - you can be sure they'll be there to retroactively illustrate how whatever time it happens was the year they really meant all along.
If Nick had won my trust I never would've discovered Michael haha Don't get me wrong. Easy to listen to, and very intelligent but you have to zoom far out and include global agendas at work to understand what's happening now. This is not the market of the past.
Michael, I believe you’ve mentioned in one of the videos that you grew up in Belvedere. You talk a lot about Florida and California markets but can you also touch on the topic of the real estate market situation in Midwest? TN is red hot, Milwaukee and Madison suburbs are keep going higher as well.
Excellent video! Your wisdom and insight is providing so many people with needed guidance. Thanks. And keep harping on the need for people to start saving!!
Exactly. They spent the last 24 months telling us it was coming any day now. It's going to come - it is the inevitable nature of the market - not some prophetic/analytical insight. So best thing is to keep making good decisions and pray that when the time is right, you have your ducks in a row. Trying to precisely time a crash is a fool's errand.
I have access to the numbers at the #2 lender in USA. More than 50% of all loans for last 2 years have been either VA = $0 down, FHA = 3.5% down, And 2-1 Buydown loans (like Nick said short term ARMs). I was a lender in 2000-2012 Basiaclly these 3 loans have replaced the subprime crises. I say a day of reckoning is coming
@onereelvision8428, great comment! USDA is also another 100% down and for investment property the DSCR loans debt-service coverage ratio are another way around strict guidelines with low down payments.
How are people getting all this money that they have? Look at what is going on in Vegas with record crowds gambling and spending astounding amounts of money. Sports betting at all time highs. Two thousand dollars for a Taylor Swift ticket. State lotteries reporting record income. The budget restaurants are empty but the steak and seafood palaces at $200 a plate are booked every night. I cannot figure out where all this money is coming from.
Nick has been saying that the housing market will crash for 3 years now. In that time, houses have appreciated 50%. So even if the market crashes tomorrow and houses go down 20-30%, that's still doesn't offset the 50% gains. It's highly unlikely the market will crash this bad.
Very good point! Drives me nuts that these people keep banging the ‘08 crash v2 drum and people are putting their lives on hold for a deal that may or may not happen. On avg, prices went down 20% nationally from 07 to 09. It then took 6 years to recover nationally. Markets are very localized and I think there are going to be people holding out for that 20, 30, 40 % decline and they’ll miss out on providing a home for their families. Speculating on timing/deals is okay if your looking at an investment property but I don’t think that is wise for a primary home.
Great job guys! Love hearing both of you. Don’t listen to the criticism. Those are the voices of all the yuppies, who are sitting on all these properties, holding the housing market hostage. They don’t like you guys exposing the truth, because they don’t want to lose their asses. You need to talk about the real truth. Real estate investors don’t want people to own homes. They want to control the prices and inventory. They want people renting, because they can control the rent and price gouge people into paying more than they should be. They want to hold people hostage to a life of renting, so they can keep growing their mountains of cash at other people’s expense. If homes were affordable and most everyone, who wanted to own could afford to own, no one would be renting and we’d have a glut of rental properties, which would bring those prices down and hurt every REI. They don’t want that, so they’re going to do whatever they can to hold the market hostage by owning all the inventory and controlling the prices. This won’t ever end unless our government steps in and sets up a way to disincentivize REI’s from buying more homes. As it stands, we could see housing prices remain elevated, even if millions of people lost their jobs, foreclosures skyrocketed, but REI’s like Blackrock just swooped in and bought up all the foreclosures. Prices would drop slightly but only enough to allow REI’s to come in and buy up everything. It wouldn’t help most homeowners who would still be priced out…no matter what the interest rate. Cash investors are always going to be controlling this market, unless the government puts a stop to it.
I know many in these crash channels hate me for saying or predicting short term future for real estate. I see many of your arguments like 'last time this data point was this bad it was in 2008' , but sorry to say that is not the argument to make., 2023 is not 2008. There is only way home prices can ever come down is when inventory increases however it may be . Unless that happens prices are going to be stable. Unemployment and foreclosure is not even worth discussing here cause those are unlikely events in present scenario. (Yeah I know crash bros going berserk here, only few understand why). I am doubling down on home prices to increase by atleast 5-8% by next year, As you already pointed out home owners now are Just rich., there is no one who wants to sell. Savings - Not an important point for home crash. All I have to say is today is the best time to buy. dont wait till next year when home prices increase and so will mortgage rates.
@@straightdrive6192 yep!! Every indicator outside the Residential RE market is falling apart. Including globally.. only a short matter of time before the fake appreciation blows apart. But hey man go for it..
Completely unserious creators. At 8:30 Nick says that people have higher credit scores today than in 2008. Then he says this is because people have learnt to game the system. Truth: people are financially in better shape than they were in 2008. One reason for this is that the unemployment rate is very low in 2023, while it was very high in 2008.
1% Mortgages Next NAIL IN THE COFFIN For Housing Market
th-cam.com/video/wpuNJAOY0-4/w-d-xo.html
having equity means nothing if you cant qualify to borrow the money.
They should call these Idiot Loans.
Common Michael, Nick needs to pull his neck in. At 3.15 he says that there aren't people on TH-cam commenting that have significant amounts of cash on the sidelines waiting to invest. Well they do. Smart investors who understand leading indicators/precursors cashed up and exited late 2021, so they're sitting on cash. We could turn the tables on his statement and say 'People who profess to be subject matter experts in economics and investment wouldn't be doing walk and talk vlog on TH-cam'. The fact of the matter is that one mans ceiling is anothers floor in investing. Will property go down further? Very likely as any constraint on credit by definition means less $ chasing property. The real issue though is to consider by how much do you think property will go down by? Lots of investors have exited the market, hence the best time to buy can be RIGHT NOW if you're the only bidder at an auction of a distressed sale. Consider also in certain markets (Like here in the UK) there are far more people than houses, and everyone HAS to live somewhere... so if you buy a house below replacement value, then by implication you have a triple A investment so long as you are confident of not requiring access to its capital (Who want's to have a lot of $ at the banks which have a risk of collapse?). Like everything, the market overshoots, prices too high, then prices too low. If you can see and acquire something that is mispriced then eventually its $ at the bank. (NB: What will happen if the FED lowers the base rate? How would that affect institutional and regular investors? If you want to mitigate timing the market then $ cost average in over the next 18 months, buy a house every six months, you won't get the bottom but you'll get a good low average and most importantly get a chance to purchase property that would never come onto the market during an uptick, and most likely to rebound the most).
But this just started. It's going to take many years for this affect the market. I'm sure these guys will be saying the same thing 5 years from now.
It’s the last thing they can do to keep the party going.
Demand is low not because people don't want homes, but because they can't afford them.
Well, you have houses in the 50 to 60k in places like Western Pennsylvania or Ohio. People need to relocate to those affordable areas to buy a house. That's about it.
Exactly. I’m so sick of these smucks lying that demand is low because of high prices. Wrong! It’s low because rates are high.
You dont have to be a real estate guru to know that.
Because they no longer qualify
@@Kevinw4040it’s both, prices and rates are high, either rates come down to sustain prices, or prices come down to sustain rates, they’re two heads of the same coin. At the end of the day all people care about is their monthly payment.
Michael is a good communicator. You can see how effectively he listens as much as he carries a conversation.
Yes, this is rare in people.
It’s not hard.
Patience is the word. I remember in 2005 and 2006 asking myself why the bubble had not burst yet. I think it always takes longer than is logical , tough to time it though.
Yes, timing things like this is tough. Especially with so much government intervention.
Imo, they want the consumer completely broken otherwise they lose out on total control. Seems like the American dream is only a dream these days
It doesn't happen overnight. Bernanke kept saying, thebans are good, there's no crash all good. People are struggling and banks are in trouble. One day its crashing, the day after that, no it not crashing. These guys too, ClICKBAIT.
My Favorite Fairy Tale is that EVERYBODY is broke as a joke except the wannabe real estate moguls on TH-cam. Some people will have to unload their homes but to think you are going to buy prime, beach front properties for pennies on the dollar I think you are delusional. Finally, who in their right mind would buy property in Frisco?
Yes, but that was the opposite of now. They were holding/trying to pay for a house worth half what they borrowed.
Houses are now with twice what people paid yet they cannot sell because rent or own...they can't get back in.
Two of my favorite guys. Nice to see you both together. Your advice and updates are greatly appreciated .
😂😂🤮🤮🤮
LOL YOU LIKE CLICKBAIT TH-camRS.
@@andresmattos7541 I don’t know what you mean, what are clickbait TH-camrs?
2 broken clocks
@@Coffeendonutsthere are right twice a day. You can least give them that.
Whether or not there is a crash, the best thing to do is to save money, stay out of debt, and buy when you're ready. Wait for mortgage rates to come down.
Bad advice, wait till the rates hit 9 9 -11% then buy for cheap never by a house that is overvalued. Never go full r-ard!
@@williewill1237rates will not hit 9-11%.
@@njerseydavidLOL good one
NOT going to happen
We saved money even when we only got ..06% interest . We just renewed some money and it’s 5%. It’s all how you look at it.
That view is absolutely out of control. Well done Michael, great insights!
Bonkers
I love your show!!! You 3 guys need to take over the TH-cams and make a Network!!
@matl7560 I'll be back in the sattle tomorrow morning. I got sick and it knocked me on my butt. 😅
@njerseydavid 😞 No. Offer wasnt accepted, the seller got upset and removed the listing. Not a single day goes by where I don't look and hunt. My goals are in place, and I know what I'm looking for. Nothing in my market is penciling out. Wedge, cash flow, PRICE etc
Thank you Travis. The view is unbeatable ain’t it!
Last year houses were selling within 2 weeks where I live, even tho they were very overpriced.....Now, houses for sale just sit there with no buyers. No one is even looking at them now. A very different story now. People I've talked to say prices need to drop at least 30% for them to become interested. You two are spot on!
Which town do you live in?
@@marinawong9662 Houston suburb.
Bidenomics is kicking in.
@@legendbe2023. They aren’t
@@zoobrizz😅 17:34 😅
Agreed! I'm in FLA and the insurance issue is adding to the problems is higher utility and taxes it's outrageous and intentional. I expect foreigners from a particular nation will be gobbling up everything they can find.
You don't mean the C Word do you?
Colombians still have to insure and pay HOA fees on their crappy condos
Bingo!
Oh yeah, they are called Blackrock which China owns most of the stock. They have over 30 billion just waiting for the picking. They will rent the home back to the person they got it from.
China is most likely to sell property then keep on holding it the country is full of crap homes and allot of high unemployment. 8 million business closings.
Nick is the most data driven guy of all of you guys. You all provide a different perspective and area of expertise. Glad you got together.
While the data makes for interesting commentary, it means very little. Until you see everyone piling in because they think the markets going to go and go and go we haven’t seen a top
They all provide right data however the outcome predicted is all wrong, did home prices crash yet ?
@@straightdrive6192 Yes. The data is accurate. People who explain why markets are going to go lower usually have the best data and make a ton of sense.
They’re just usually wrong despite the data
Nick is very data driven, but he's been wrong about the housing market 100% of the time over the last 3 yrs lol
It's not a binary position: right/wrong. That's overly simplistic and reeks of not understanding markets. Housing markets don't "crash" overnight. It's a slow drain. There was no "crash" after the '08 downturn, either. It still took 4-5 years to get back to acceptable pricing. And the "housing market" is an aggregate of a massive number of smaller markets. Prices have dropped precipitously in some areas and remained steady or even inflated in others.@@jgg204
Yeah and we are the ones paying the government debt through taxes. The whole system is messed up! Rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
Yes, people will be forced to sell but there won't be buyers who can afford to keep up with Insurance, Government regulations, Interest rates.
My thoughts as well
@@MichaelBordenaroall that is going to do is push the cost from equity which at least is yours and you own to insurance and HoA cost. Your cost are the same and one is good for you. Clueless channel lol
Both of you Gentlemen, have been very generous with your insights, and experience. Thank you both for what you do !!
Couldn't agree more
These videos are incredibly helpful, I want more collabs with Nick
People buying a house right now at this peak are going to live to regret it when the bubble bursts within the next year. They won't be able to afford it, but also will have to sell at a loss with no equity. Now is a horrible time to be buying anything real estate wise.
How will it burst? Will all the ARM people used to buy homes with start making people go into default? 39% of people in the country own their home outright another 28% have low fixed rates with big money down. Tough to crash a market with fixed rates.
@@ChrisJarzyk you're leaving out the two income trap consumer debt and student loans. They'll be forced to sell before forclosure.
@@jbeyers84 you can keep saying it but a crazy isn’t coming. Quick stats 39% of people in the country own their home outright, 28% have 50% equity on low fixed rates with lots of money down. This isn’t 2007, the kid in the video is a clickbait king he has been calling for a crash for 3 plus years and continues to push it back. You know a crash isn’t happening.
And when rates drop, and they won’t drop fast, they will have to bring a lot of cash to the table because the price they bought it for has crashed. They’ll have to stay married to the rate and the home. Or sell the home at a loss.
Ok-!!! Answer the following question-???🤔.. Whom will have the funds to purchase those lower cost mortgage payments-? If they can't afford it now-???
Crash is the wrong term. A real estate correction takes months if not years to play out, the whole event deemed a “crash” after the the smoke clears. Prices need to drop a lot more to qualify for crash status. We are in mild correction territory now in select areas, if it keeps up, then we will be in crash territory. Real estate is local, so we will more than likely have both crash areas and correction areas.
Absolutely correct. 1928 there were signs of distress on mortgages. By 1929 it escalated to a full blown crisis. 2006 housing abruptly lost its steam and stagnated until late 2007 when foreclosures started happening. By 2008 prices precipitously started dropping. Right now we are in a stagnated market. It could go up or down. If prices start to climb and break trend above previous highs the path of least resistance is up. If it fails to make new highs the trend will be down. Speculation about mass unemployment is neither here nor there. It has not happened so it is not reality. High unemployment is also not synonymous with falling home prices. The entire decade of the 1970s were plagued by high unemployment (higher than the Great Recession) and housing prices rose 140% from 1970-1980. Despite very high interest and unemployment.
Yeah but Crashbro sounds much better then Correctionbro. Crash=fear and panic, Correction=normal market reaction. Understand the goal here is to create views, sensationalism does that, not boring typical market cycle stuff.
I perform about 2000+ home insurance inspections on the Treasure coast of Florida each year and have noticed I have not come across ONE new home buyer with a loan this year. Sales were booming in 21/22 and now the only buyers I meet are from New York and just sold a million dollar home and paid cash for a newly built home in a new development.
I work with a large Title company and I noticed 98% of the closings I do with them are small LLCs( flippers). I also noticed older people cashing out and moving closer to their kids out of state or smaller more rural areas
One would think a pro flipper would be more intelligent. Also, Zillow just bought a friends house in Sacramento for way overvalue. Their monthly offer to him just went up 60K and he took it, even when not wanting to sell initially. Most of the institutional buyers are way behind the times and many billions in debt. They will be dumping thousands of homes soon and that will trigger the crash.
@@AlphaJ369 who is the pro flipper you talk about?
@@amyb5356 that was my response to another post above me.
I just discovered this channel yesterday and can’t stop myself from binge watching. The videos do a great job explaining what I have been feeling in my gut regarding the housing market and the economic environment in general. I feel like I’m not alone anymore! I’m sure Michael mentioned it in his videos somewhere, but wonder if the resumption of student loan payments could be a triggering event that takes down the house of cards.
Thank you for supporting his channel.🙏🤍🙏
With hurricanme idalia, expect another good hike in insurance rate for Florida.
that's the best case, the other is the few remaining just leave
Will look forward to it. Just need a reason to raise it. Now they have it. We should be good.
I was thinking the same. No shortage of coverage on that for me
People making $140K a year can't afford a house and this is sustainable?
where did you get that from ? if you make 100K+, you can afford a house. unless you want to buy 2+ millions house.
@@BangFamilyvideo Agreed, anyone making 100+k can totally buy a home. You just have to move a few hours away from your job that pays you that lol.
@@BangFamilyvideonot really Einstein 0bvisuly you don’t live in Southern California or some other blue state
I am in CA and make over 130k and homes are unaffordable. And by unaffordable I don't mean I can't qualify, I mean I would be house poor.
@@BangFamilyvideo With interest rates a nice house in most towns not in a fecal hole area would require a mortgage rate of around $3500 to $4000 a month. You must think 100K goes as far as it did back in 91'
So good to see Nick on your show! He truly knows his data. Love him!
Holy crap I can’t believe this collaboration! I watched both of you every day when I’m leaving work, it’s like my heroine I gotta get it in. Lol
i love seeing two of my favorite channel hosts do shows together!
I never felt the previous downturns at all. I was working as a nurse (RN) so wages were good. This time, however my husband and I are retired and living on social security. Thank God however that everything is paid for, house, land, and vehicles.
Taxes will make you broke.
It's nice to be a Boomer, and not have deal with today's nonsense.
Exactly!
Great question Michael about people over bidding on houses; when I was an appraiser this was a huge NO NO with lenders.
Yes, when it doesn't appraise...you have to come up with the cash difference
Both of my favorite peeps together! It’s a dream to see Nik and Michael together on this initiative! You guys are simply amazing! Thank you for always being there to guide us though this market volatility and transition! 👏🏽👍🏽
Imagine in 06-07 when all people had for news was mainstream media. That’s why so many people for caught off guard. This time around, you can get real info like from Nick and Michael which allows more nuanced decisions. Thanks for the daily videos!
Another data point would be interesting to look at Nick is the average retiree saving? For example, my grandmother sister and her husband are about to sell their family home and plant on renting until they die (they are 75) because they cost of living had gone up so much they no longer have the choice. Their house is paid off and is about 1m$ so that should be enough to cover their living expenses till the end, but I wonder how much inventory will flood the market as I’m sure they can’t the only one! I also want to say that they were more than financially comfortable all their lives and still have about 100k in cash savings yet they are still in this boat!
No market crash in Kansas City! A coworker put his house up for sale a week ago. It's already sold. But most of us are just waiting for the prices and/or interest rates to come down. Rent's still reasonable here in Overland Park KS, and we get to skip all of the homeowner costs, including snow, grass cutting & landscaping & buying all of that yard & gardening equipment. Maintenance is just an email to mgmt, and it's usually fixed same day. We have great rentals here. This is an affluent area, great schools, great place to walk dogs, etc. I pay $1,038 that includes my carport, two free washers & dryers next door, water, sewer, trash and heat paid. I only pay lights @ $750 annually for a one bedroom. Not thinking of moving coastal. Raised in Hawaii. There, you're living with live volcanos and tsunamis from ALL directions. Tsunamis hit in 1923, '46, 52, 57, 60 and 64, and they are due again. I can't live with the FL stress of being hit twice by a hurricane and/or tornado. You have to pick your safety tolerance.
This is may be the best collaboration ever! Thank
You for making this video. I watch the both of you everyday. THIS WAS IMPRESSIVE
Great interview listening to two great guys! I love when you two are together.
I've been saying from the get-go that we don't even need a true unemployment spike for the housing market to correct. I've seen the plummeting salary ranges firsthand. Even if everyone who gets laid-off finds another job the very next day, the likelihood of them finding one that pays as much or more than their last job is very slim. Over the last 8 months, salary ranges for software development positions especially have plummeted.
Median household income has jumped from 65k a year to 82k in may of 2023
My tech company froze salary raises, stopped bonuses. Some of the salary is paid in stocks…which are worth next to nothing
@@Coffeendonutsthe jump in the household is 35 year old Jr getting a part time job.
Construction workers are aging too, might be another factor to consider, plus permitting isn't getting easier or cheaper.
OMG! Best surprise ever!! So excited to see both of you together 😀Perfect way to end the day!
Excellent channel. If only people pay attention they can insulate now, if not, you were warned.
Good to see both of you together again. Enjoy your expertise on the economy and housing Market.
Hey man, I don't know you and I just stumbled onto this channel... I live in Boise Id.. and the housing market here is not crashing... With every dip-wad that can afford it from Cali, Oregon, and Washington moving here in DROVES!!! Trying to escape the idiotic politicians that they voted for.... It's not crashing here my friend, it's still crazy.
Great work guys! Really enjoy the content, love what you both do! Keep it going and thank you.
The lower downpayments and high dti ratio tell me how much our wages have been devalued
Awesome, my two favorite real estate youtubers!!! Nick's been in California. Had a feeling you two would hook up. Lots of valuable insight here thank you Nick and Michael!
I watch every video from both of you. Wonderful to see you exchanging ideas!
Ha, awesome seeing you guys together, I watch both of you constantly.
These guys are so smart I have to replay sections of the video multiple times just so I can process what’s being said.
I'm in a small town in a low cost of living area, every day I check Zillow and watching the sold homes has been pretty interesting. I've been seeing homes stay on the market longer, sometimes multiple price cuts and then often it still sells for 20k or so under the last asking price. Some desirable and well-priced homes are still selling quick and over asking, but otherwise its a totally different ballgame than a few years ago.
I wish I lived there too. Live in Montana and we used to be a small town, invaded by California and Texas, 44k in 2020 and in some months 6k new residents, it's rough. Our home prices have more than doubled and rent has tripled in 2 years and 8 months. Looking for another state, small town. : o)
Texas invaded too, our small country town is now a city, wildlife, trees and ranches…all gone in three years. Soul sucking 😰
@@MeadowDay i bet Texas is just like here, non-stop, they just keep coming. It is like a nightmare and you don't wake up. "They" Californians and Texans stay and here comes their friends and family. UGH!
Same, but with northeasterners in the Tampa area. Totally ruined the area. I fled in 2021.
@@jayneweaver8695California native...California was once wide open space...irony being people invaded California from other states and destroyed it...I think beautiful places will always be discovered, invaded, and destroyed. Social media doesn't help
In reality it's a shame it takes a recession to handle greed and these greedy people never understand it will catch up to them eventually and the economy has a way of bringing these individuals down to earth and when these same greedy people get a taste of what they have done to others it can be an eye opening experience for them and right now greed is rampet and the piper is coming for them one by one it's going to be interesting this time next year
Totally agree, you just cant help some folk.
Two of my favorite guys. Love all the stats and especially the comparisons of the run ups of the mid 2000s to now. I work in large lot rural subdivisions. For the year or 2 before the pandemic I was asking the engineers and surveyors I work with if it felt like the run up to 2008. In geology the principle of "uniforminatarism " says that the past is the key to the present. Look at how certain types of rocks are being formed now tells you the ancient environments that similar rocks formed under. Similar thing here with debt to earning ratios, % of savings % of income sucked up by house payments ect. While we cant avoid what ever wild ride is in store we can at least try to be prepared
We love Nick! Michael plus Nick equals two incredible “Real Estate Minds” -What a Treat!
Do you think that condos will be the first home vs. townhouses since they are usually cheaper than townhouses? What percentage drop in prices constitutes a "CRASH"? Is it 20 or 25%? Or is it year over year drops?
The problem I see is the second rates drop even a little bit the bidding wars return. There just isnt enough supply out there (thanks to blackrock, etc) unless you are able to relocate to someplace nobody wants to live in the middle of nowhere. Otherwsie, rates drop, demand spikes, and then prices stay up... there's just so much pent up demnad. Half of all millennials are living with their parents (due to unafforability) and as soon as they can afford, they are going to jump at the chance to enter the market.
Great to see you both together!!!!
No crash..everything is expensive now..why would houses be cheaper...its still a search for a good buy...supply n demand
inflation is going to stay awhile...the PPP loans every single person with a schedule C got boatloads of free money. the rich got richer
True, but they are not as bad as the real scumbags, students who took out loans. Pay them back butter cups.
I typically skip collaboration videos no matter who’s on it . This one however was excellent. Great info for both you guys.
I’m a big fan of both channels. Keep up the good work, guys!
Thanks!!
I agree 💯👍 big fan for both!
It's called a shit load of liquidity in the system that the first round and a half of interest rate hikes has just started drying up. How many rounds of interest rate hikes do we have left to hit and dry up the liquidity or the lag affect? 5 or 6 still left to hit as each round take 8-16 months to hit the economy. We are in stage 5 of the lead up to a recession and we always have a rally before the recession. 1) Inflation, 2) interest rate hikes, 3) demand falls, 4) Price cuts to make up for the lack of demand, luring everyone into thinking that inflation is under control, 5) job openings fall (poor JOLTS report), 6) rise in unemployment, 7) recession over. In between 6 and 7 the market crashes and capitulates.
It was nice seeing you guys walking together. I noticed Nick walking the other day and I thought wow he's doing Mikes gig, now I see them together. WHOOP WHOOP! Now you guys should grab Economic Ninja. Hahaha
Hey guys! One more point that’s being missed here that a lot of people aren’t thinking about. The default rate and foreclosure #’s on homes are being manipulated, as well. Think about this. I’d venture to guess that the majority of people, who get to a point where they know they are heading towards foreclosure, will give in and sell to these lowball real estate investors companies, which would prevent those potential foreclose if Ron ever showing up in statistics as foreclosures. Basically, real estate investors can keep those numbers from looking bad by buying up all those homes at lowered prices. That’s exactly what’s going on right now. Look at how many REI’s started calling homeowners in Maui after the fire there. REI’s are going to be lowballing every financially squeezed homeowner out of their house. Foreclosure #’s may not change that dramatically for a while, even though people are actually losing their homes. Those people are also getting conveniently put back into the rental market pool, which additionally helps the real estate investor. It’s a win win for them.
Great show guys ! Keep up the great work!
Love when you two collaborate! It’s double truth! Thanks for keeping it real.
Great collaboration. I enjoy both of your channels and gain a lot of knowledge from you both.
I believe ball outs will happen when the official market crash happens. I believe the market in CA is already crashing. I’ve been following tons of house reductions, & people selling for less than they purchased the home a year ago on Zillow and other sites.
Thanks for always keeping it real and giving us your honest opinion.
Best wishes from North Bay Area. Take a trip down highway 37 to the other side of the North Bay. Great trails for you to walk over here as well. Cheers my friend
A house in maine that sold in 2015 for 109k, then sold in 2021 for 120k, just went pending for 399k!! People moved to maine in droves paying high class prices for the locals homes where most are in poverty. It’s insane!
I’m from “back then” and here’s what WE WERE NOT DOING: eating out, using credit cards (paid cash for gas, checks at grocery store), having debt (other than house payment and car payment, most of us rented and drove used cars), buying big toys, extravagant travel and vacations (we went to family reunions for vacations, usually in our cars), tons of clothes and shoes/jewelry. We were not in debt, we lived within our means, had a job or two, had a savings account, and we were happy. I maintain that ppl’s spending habits, not living on a budget and life choices are main factors for todays financial woes.
Thank you for saying that!! conveys my point exactly
Agree.. people are having one kid esp in Asian countries .. but they are those who have an elite kinda lifestyle.. esp urban India... More international vacations ... Latest car.. iphone.. American branded stuff .. laptops ..purses .. etc.. it is just ridiculous competition
🔥4 min. in & you guys are in tandem, great questions(that NO ONE else tackles), great response(that NO ONE else deep-dives in). You guys make a great team, while simultaneously having your own channel/style/format/real estate info/real estate -true- data.🙏thanks for all of the hardwork you guys put in💪
Oh man! Once I saw Nick doing more walk and talks I thought he may do a vid with Michael. Then I saw they were both in CA, then I knew it was inevitable.
Here we are!
Wow my two favorite you tubers together ! This saved me from having to watch one then the other ! Thanks for the info you two are the best !
Bought my house in NY in 2011 right at the bottom of the market. I’m a retired cop, 2 things we’re keeping me in NY 1. Wife makes good money( nurse) 2. We live in a good school district for our kids. Now NYS attorney General Lelitta James has come out and said school districts can not block Illegal immigrants from enrolling in their districts they do not need to provide documentation that they live within the district. That’s it, that’s game over for me I’m not going to pay $14,000 in property taxes to send my kids to school and pay for these Illegals kids also!!
I assume you will be selling then. And I don’t blame you.
I hope you don’t live in Rockland County. Plenty of Law Enforcement and Firefighters live there. From what you are saying, the schools may all be heading to becoming like Ramapo Central School District. A complete disaster. Think about moving to Viera in Brevard County Florida. There are plenty of Medical Centers on The Space Coast. Rockland County Executive ED Day refused to take in what Mayor Adams was trying to send to live in a local Hotel. I’m sad to say it’s going to happen anyway.
As far as I can see the Democratic party see a problem like illegal immigrants invading our country and instead of solving the problem at the boarder like Trump attempted, the Democrats do not take the position to solve the problem BUT assume the position to finnancially profit off the problem at the taxpayers expense to fill there pockets and friends of the party.
Total abuse of the tax paying Americans, we are taxed to death, and now paying for everyone else too. This has to end.
Thats only nyc. Wont be happening in affluent suburbs. Although hamptons schools have no white kids at all. Theyre a minority and get no minority protections. I agree though. Im at the brink with NY too. They will lose loads more population in next 5 years.
Usually, any market do the opposite of what majority expect. Keep an eye of the end year, beginning of next year.
Why the hell would I sell my 3% interest rate and replace it with 8%.
Do you hear the huge sucking sound, it's our treasonist politicians stealing our wealth,our middle class is being decimated!!! RC!!
Because when people like you lose your jobs you won't have much of a choice.
Recent sub market crashes like Austin City Limits where housing prices are still inflated and not a good deal.
my two real estate doomers in one video. perfect
Being in the DFW area and working with Title companies I can tell you it’s calming, but people are still buying especially new homes( which are more affordable with the builder’s credits) it’s said that Texas is the next CA, meaning prices being in the millions. It’s unaffordable here in decent areas
You and Nick are literally the only TH-cam guys I watch about the housing market. It was really great seeing you both together today!
If I would listen two of them or with similar topics I would miss 5-6 years paying my own house which has payment less than rent.
Supply and Demand. Noone wants to sell a home with a 3-4% interest rate and noone wants to buy a home with a 6-7% interest rate. Its a stale mate.
It's only because of lack of inventory, crash bros say. As if inventory/supply is 1 of 37 different factors, with 36 of them pointing to a crash, and only tight inventory keeping prices up. Yet, the only two things that determine price are demand and supply, it's only 2 factors, not 37. If supply is tight, then prices will stay up. Words like "absurd", "tremendous", "lowest, lowest", accompanied by lots of hand waving, are meaningless prose. It only depends on supply and demand, nothing else matters. Supply is low, demand is high. No crash.
Yes. I have often pointed out the same thing "oh prices are 'only' up because of low supply". Lol.
Like, really ? Thanks Einstein.
The most likely scenario is that home owners and builders will continue to benefit from their monopoly and keep supply low. They don't need or want housing sales to bounce back. They are making record profits.
When they have to buy, they can just pay cash.
It's over, we have become a nation of renters, is time to move.
Oh ok..😂😂😂😂🤦♂️🤦♂️..
Most homeowners do not have the cash to buy.
@@MichaelBordenaro and yet, I just read that around 1/3 of current home sales are paid in cash. Even if most homeowners don't have enough equity they're still not going to sell at the same time. The supply will continue to be low for the next decade and the existing problems will only be compounded and become the new normal... It already has.
Rents are spiraling out of control too.
@@MustbeTheBassestyou know what sucks is I agree with this. The most obvious outcome usually ends up correct. The most obvious outcome is things going to shit for the average person. After seeing so many videos, this feels like the new normal. There is nothing really stopping it from being so. Enough people make enough money though to keep the overinflated markets going and that's all that matters. Everyone else just gets by. I hope we're wrong
I only have one question, what trail are you walking on?
I love Nick he’s for the people! He gave me so much hope when home prices were going crazy. some TH-camrs were recommending us poor people, just move to poor people land. Yet here we are. All these greedy investors are going to pound sand 😈
Me too! Nick gives me hope for our country. He is smart and gets it!
Nick's perspective on down payments seems off. People were putting 22% down pre-crisis, yet the crisis still occurred. Now, with an average of 17% down and no issues, it's clear that the 20% rule isn't as ironclad as once thought. Plus, with homes costing 2x-3x more than 15 years ago, that percentage represents a lot more money. Even if all recent buyers defaulted (which is a huge 'if'), it wouldn't massively affect the market because sales volume is so low now. With so many locking in at 3% rates, they're set. And those with low credit scores? Higher rates mean many can't even enter the housing market
We are in a cycle like 1975 and 1989. Nobody could afford to buy.
You both have great channels. I really enjoyed this video. It's great to listen to both of you bounce your options of the real estate market off each other.
Nick originally called for a housing crash to begin in late 2021. Since then his predictions have continued to be pushed back and he’ll never admit to being wrong. Sorry but without humility from him I can’t value his analysis
The timing and stuff like this is very hard to nail down. That’s why I’ve tried to stay away from giving hard and fast dates and predictions because we really don’t know.
Yup ... You listen to these crash bros, and you'll end up paying more.
There has been tons of government intervention, which has delayed a housing crash, but it will come
Investor Jeremy Grantham has made predictions and they are being pushed back but the last three that he made he was right on.
Watched to the end. Thank you; you act as an amazing team.
Comparing the housing market in 2023 to say, 1975, is like comparing the housing market of 1985, when I bought my first house, to the housing market of 1937. Both are 48 years apart. The comparison lacks credibility.
There are two things that could change this market to alleviate prices and bring them back down to the natural supply/demand levels. Either one, the government will have to, substantially, penalize real estate investors form buying up properties that they do not live in as their primary residences…or two, innovators and entrepreneurs will find better solutions for housing that’s much more affordable and can’t be manipulated by the current system, i.e tiny houses, multiple families cohabiting, people learning to sleep in their cars/vans/RV’s, housing being built by 3D printers, Boxables, converted sheds and people just learning how to live without a roof over their heads. The point is, the current market model is broken and REI’s with cash are taking advantage of it. The model needs to change, and they will get stuck sitting on a mountain of overpriced homes that no one wants or can afford. It’s slowly starting to happen. We’re seeing a massive evolution in living standards, and we don’t even realize it.
Nick mid 2021: Phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started.
Nick early 2022: Phase 2 of the housing crash is just getting going
Nick late 2022: this is what I call the almost last phase of this housing crash.
Nick early 2023: Phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started.
Nick mid 2023: Housing is going to crash no matter what, here’s a bright beautiful chart.
Nick late 2023….phase 1 of this housing crash is just getting started..
For real. Gets so annoying I'm actually starting to side with realtors
It's all getting a bit silly with these guys. Hoping to capitalize on the broken clock being right twice a day phenomenon. When the crash eventually happens - because it's the inevitable nature of market cycles - you can be sure they'll be there to retroactively illustrate how whatever time it happens was the year they really meant all along.
Why would there be a housing crash? Do these guys even understand the market at all?
If Nick had won my trust I never would've discovered Michael haha Don't get me wrong. Easy to listen to, and very intelligent but you have to zoom far out and include global agendas at work to understand what's happening now. This is not the market of the past.
If they knew the housing market, they should have predicted housing in 2021 and 2023 would be up or even flat.
Michael, I believe you’ve mentioned in one of the videos that you grew up in Belvedere. You talk a lot about Florida and California markets but can you also touch on the topic of the real estate market situation in Midwest? TN is red hot, Milwaukee and Madison suburbs are keep going higher as well.
People can either keep paying rising rent rates, or choose to buy. Simple as that.
Buy.
Excellent video! Your wisdom and insight is providing so many people with needed guidance. Thanks.
And keep harping on the need for people to start saving!!
If you call a housing market crash every single year, eventually, one day, you will be right.
💯
Then get out there and buy buy buy
Exactly. They spent the last 24 months telling us it was coming any day now. It's going to come - it is the inevitable nature of the market - not some prophetic/analytical insight. So best thing is to keep making good decisions and pray that when the time is right, you have your ducks in a row. Trying to precisely time a crash is a fool's errand.
Michael knows what he's talking about
That what these two are hoping. Most people would get scared and hold on buying houses.
Try to visit Discovery Bay, CA also. Beautiful and affordable also.
I have access to the numbers at the #2 lender in USA. More than 50% of all loans for last 2 years have been either
VA = $0 down,
FHA = 3.5% down,
And 2-1 Buydown loans (like Nick said short term ARMs).
I was a lender in 2000-2012 Basiaclly these 3 loans have replaced the subprime crises. I say a day of reckoning is coming
Thank you for sharing that I’m going to quote that in a future video
@onereelvision8428, great comment! USDA is also another 100% down and for investment property the DSCR loans debt-service coverage ratio are another way around strict guidelines with low down payments.
When 😂
@@MichaelBordenaroYou are welcome.
@@jayneweaver8695Yes those two probably represent another 5%-8%
How are people getting all this money that they have? Look at what is going on in Vegas with record crowds gambling and spending astounding amounts of money. Sports betting at all time highs. Two thousand dollars for a Taylor Swift ticket. State lotteries reporting record income. The budget restaurants are empty but the steak and seafood palaces at $200 a plate are booked every night. I cannot figure out where all this money is coming from.
Nick has been saying that the housing market will crash for 3 years now. In that time, houses have appreciated 50%. So even if the market crashes tomorrow and houses go down 20-30%, that's still doesn't offset the 50% gains. It's highly unlikely the market will crash this bad.
Very good point! Drives me nuts that these people keep banging the ‘08 crash v2 drum and people are putting their lives on hold for a deal that may or may not happen. On avg, prices went down 20% nationally from 07 to 09. It then took 6 years to recover nationally. Markets are very localized and I think there are going to be people holding out for that 20, 30, 40 % decline and they’ll miss out on providing a home for their families. Speculating on timing/deals is okay if your looking at an investment property but I don’t think that is wise for a primary home.
Nick is the Nouriel
Roubini (Dr. Doom) of real estate. Yet, I enjoy his alarmist-style.
Thought it was longer. The kid is all click bate,
Correction...not crash.
Great job guys! Love hearing both of you. Don’t listen to the criticism. Those are the voices of all the yuppies, who are sitting on all these properties, holding the housing market hostage. They don’t like you guys exposing the truth, because they don’t want to lose their asses. You need to talk about the real truth. Real estate investors don’t want people to own homes. They want to control the prices and inventory. They want people renting, because they can control the rent and price gouge people into paying more than they should be. They want to hold people hostage to a life of renting, so they can keep growing their mountains of cash at other people’s expense. If homes were affordable and most everyone, who wanted to own could afford to own, no one would be renting and we’d have a glut of rental properties, which would bring those prices down and hurt every REI. They don’t want that, so they’re going to do whatever they can to hold the market hostage by owning all the inventory and controlling the prices. This won’t ever end unless our government steps in and sets up a way to disincentivize REI’s from buying more homes. As it stands, we could see housing prices remain elevated, even if millions of people lost their jobs, foreclosures skyrocketed, but REI’s like Blackrock just swooped in and bought up all the foreclosures. Prices would drop slightly but only enough to allow REI’s to come in and buy up everything. It wouldn’t help most homeowners who would still be priced out…no matter what the interest rate. Cash investors are always going to be controlling this market, unless the government puts a stop to it.
I know many in these crash channels hate me for saying or predicting short term future for real estate.
I see many of your arguments like 'last time this data point was this bad it was in 2008' , but sorry to say that is not the argument to make., 2023 is not 2008. There is only way home prices can ever come down is when inventory increases however it may be . Unless that happens prices are going to be stable. Unemployment and foreclosure is not even worth discussing here cause those are unlikely events in present scenario. (Yeah I know crash bros going berserk here, only few understand why). I am doubling down on home prices to increase by atleast 5-8% by next year, As you already pointed out home owners now are Just rich., there is no one who wants to sell. Savings - Not an important point for home crash.
All I have to say is today is the best time to buy. dont wait till next year when home prices increase and so will mortgage rates.
Bingo.
Wrong!!! ..😂😂🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
@@brianlord1232 so you believe home prices come down ? I believe the opposite ,and intact doubling down .
@@straightdrive6192 yep!! Every indicator outside the Residential RE market is falling apart. Including globally.. only a short matter of time before the fake appreciation blows apart.
But hey man go for it..
@@brianlord1232 Reality has already proven him right , Renter.
Great to see two of my favorite housing experts collaborating together. Thank you for all of your insights.
love this collab! two folks i follow!
That blue sky and sunshine makes both you guys look so freakin' handsome.
Completely unserious creators. At 8:30 Nick says that people have higher credit scores today than in 2008. Then he says this is because people have learnt to game the system. Truth: people are financially in better shape than they were in 2008. One reason for this is that the unemployment rate is very low in 2023, while it was very high in 2008.
I have been seeing some fantastic collaborations lately. Thanks, Michael. This is great. I have learned so much from you two. ❤