TH-cam recently changed the way my content will be monetised. My channel now needs 1,000 subscribers. So it would be amazing if you show your support by both watching my videos and subscribing to my channel if you haven’t done so already. Monetising my videos allows me to invest back into the channel with some new equipment so this small gesture from you will be extremely huge for me. Many thanks for your support….CrunchEconometrix loves to teach, support my Channel with your subscription and sharing my videos with your cohorts.
I like Your structure of 4 points. Nevertheless forecasting is still missing right? Thats sad, because i could find only one small Video that actually tried to generate a point forecast out of the model estimates. And no video tackled the question of how to rebuild the forecast in excel using the generated estimates. Is it so difficult? Re-differencing seems to be a problem.
Just an observation, you are estimating wrong the model. The variable dppi is already differenced. You don’t need to difference it again with the arima command. (I.e, arima dppi, arima(1,1,1)) you should have used the variable ppi in levels and the command arima dpi, arima(1,1,1). Regards
Hi thank you so much for this very valuable video! Please upload the sheet 6:30 so we can plug in our own values. Also a video of forecasting with the arima model would be highly appreciated. Thanks again!
Thanks Dawid for the positive feedback, deeply appreciated. That sheet can be easily generated by you and populated with the output statistics. I'm still gathering resources for the "forecasting" video, and will roll out once I'm done. I'll appreciate if you spread the word about my Channel. Thanks again!
@@CrunchEconometrix Thank you I am looking forward to the next video. Ill definitely recommend your videos. I try to follow your videos step by step. However I am a little stuck, in your "Identification" video in "hints to identify model": what if both statement 2 and 4 are true does that mean it is recommended to consider both AR and MA? In my case I have cut off after negative first lags both in acf and pacs, also for both acf and pacf 1st and 4th lags are significant. I am considering ARMA(1,1)(1,4)(4,1)(4,4). Thanks.
@@Cihan_Quotes Good, fair enough then estimate the four "tentative" models because at the end of the day, you have to settle for ONE model using the hints provided. Reason: the four models won't yield the same results and exact characteristics.
Great video! Is it possible to use lnppi instead of ppi for the model? I want to compare the forecasting results with VAR model, and my variable is only stationary at the first difference if I apply log
You've already calculated the diff of ppi in to dppi but still use d = 1 In your model arima (p,d,q). By doing this way, I mean you did twice difference to ppi variable!!!!!!.
Yes, you observed correctly. dppi is stationary and ARIMA (p,1 ,q) is used to show the number of integration. Besides, differencing a variable twice is not out of place in ARIMA modeling. You can estimate ARIMA (p, 0, q) using dppi to observe your outcome...and don't you think using 6 exclamation marks is overly assertive? I'm sure there are polite ways to channel queries if one is expecting a response.
Hi Asif, my explanations are very clear on detecting significant coefficients. Please watch the video again and relate to the composite Table showing the 6 results. Thanks 😊.
When I type "arima dppi, arima(1,1,1)" an error message appears saying "error occurred while loading arima.ado (r612). Do you have any suggestion to fix this problem?
![[LIVE] : ONE ลุมพินี 90 | คู่เอก "ก้องไกล vs แอนตาร์"](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/VugIvOstzRI/mqdefault.jpg)
TH-cam recently changed the way my content will be monetised. My channel now needs 1,000 subscribers. So it would be amazing if you show your support by both watching my videos and subscribing to my channel if you haven’t done so already. Monetising my videos allows me to invest back into the channel with some new equipment so this small gesture from you will be extremely huge for me. Many thanks for your support….CrunchEconometrix loves to teach, support my Channel with your subscription and sharing my videos with your cohorts.
Brilliant! thank for sharing from Corsica!
U're welcome 💝
Thank you so much! This is great!
U're welcome Sylvia...kindly tell others about my Channel! 💕 😊
So proud of you
@@florykumuteo5545 Thanks!!! I'll appreciate if you share my videos and YT Channel link...gracias!
I like Your structure of 4 points. Nevertheless forecasting is still missing right? Thats sad, because i could find only one small Video that actually tried to generate a point forecast out of the model estimates. And no video tackled the question of how to rebuild the forecast in excel using the generated estimates. Is it so difficult? Re-differencing seems to be a problem.
Familie, sorry about that.
thank you so much
U're welcome, Min. Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?
@@CrunchEconometrix I am in the UK
Just an observation, you are estimating wrong the model. The variable dppi is already differenced. You don’t need to difference it again with the arima command. (I.e, arima dppi, arima(1,1,1)) you should have used the variable ppi in levels and the command arima dpi, arima(1,1,1). Regards
Alright...thanks.
Please upload one video on forecasting
It's still in the works.
Hi thank you so much for this very valuable video! Please upload the sheet 6:30 so we can plug in our own values. Also a video of forecasting with the arima model would be highly appreciated. Thanks again!
Thanks Dawid for the positive feedback, deeply appreciated. That sheet can be easily generated by you and populated with the output statistics. I'm still gathering resources for the "forecasting" video, and will roll out once I'm done. I'll appreciate if you spread the word about my Channel. Thanks again!
@@CrunchEconometrix Thank you I am looking forward to the next video. Ill definitely recommend your videos. I try to follow your videos step by step. However I am a little stuck, in your "Identification" video in "hints to identify model": what if both statement 2 and 4 are true does that mean it is recommended to consider both AR and MA? In my case I have cut off after negative first lags both in acf and pacs, also for both acf and pacf 1st and 4th lags are significant. I am considering ARMA(1,1)(1,4)(4,1)(4,4). Thanks.
@@Cihan_Quotes Good, fair enough then estimate the four "tentative" models because at the end of the day, you have to settle for ONE model using the hints provided. Reason: the four models won't yield the same results and exact characteristics.
Great video! Is it possible to use lnppi instead of ppi for the model? I want to compare the forecasting results with VAR model, and my variable is only stationary at the first difference if I apply log
Yes you can. Log is just a transformation.
Good morning
Step #4 Arma/Arima is missing eg "Forecasting" or is it name differently?
You are amazing!!!
Step #4 is till in the works!...and thanks for the humbling commendation. Grateful!
You've already calculated the diff of ppi in to dppi but still use d = 1 In your model arima (p,d,q). By doing this way, I mean you did twice difference to ppi variable!!!!!!.
Yes, you observed correctly. dppi is stationary and ARIMA (p,1 ,q) is used to show the number of integration. Besides, differencing a variable twice is not out of place in ARIMA modeling. You can estimate ARIMA (p, 0, q) using dppi to observe your outcome...and don't you think using 6 exclamation marks is overly assertive? I'm sure there are polite ways to channel queries if one is expecting a response.
please tell me how you Significant coeff lebl as 2 1 and 6 in table
Hi Asif, my explanations are very clear on detecting significant coefficients. Please watch the video again and relate to the composite Table showing the 6 results. Thanks 😊.
Hello, What if the sigma of ARIMA outout in stata is too large say 898?
Hi Abhaya, a large sigma evidences high volatility. Please may I know from where (location) you are reaching me?
When I type "arima dppi, arima(1,1,1)" an error message appears saying "error occurred while loading arima.ado (r612). Do you have any suggestion to fix this problem?
Hi Alessia, I guess your syntax is wrong, Follow my procedure.
how to forcast arima in stata or the 4th step but in stata plz
Hi Mustapha, the video is not yet available.
Where is step third
DIAGNOSTIC CHECKING
It's there in the Playlist.
where is forecasting
Still working on it.