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Would like to highlight a point that might increase demand temporarily - the bumper crop of dragon babies born in 1988 have just turned 35 recently and the increasing number of singles among them will be looking to buy resale hdb.
The 400+ listings at Treasure, and the 300+ at Normanton. Need to take into account duplicate listings. Units usually could list more than 5 of them if there are many agents. Some agents repost new ones every few days as well. Also, the ABSD new rule, could be because gov couldn't get a good price for the recent land sale at Marina Bay, and decided not to sell. Didn't want this situation to happen again. Anyway, with the current interest rate environment, yet demand is still so strong, the property market is going to get hotter if interest rates fall next time
A condo just top, their to sell to rent listings is mega and Hoover for 2 years before it goes down ..plus there a togetherness effort of listing the higher price..educating buyers the basics price range at there..
Other than number of listings, can also look at the selling price. There are only a few units in treasure selling at below 1600psf. The launch psf was 1200 to 1400psf. They are not in hurry to sell.
Great video Josh with lots of research and was very insightful in the lens of '24 economic climate. Would be great to see a deep dive video into private property market and how you see the next few years shaping up.
nowadays, with tdsr of 60% and high absd, unlikely there is bubble in the market. Holding power is generally strong. Unless there is a significant economic slow down with lots of retrenchments, we are unlikely to see a decline in price. My place rental shoots up again.
Everything depends on jobs and demand for service. If jobs are gone like in Europe. who will have the money to pay for the houses? If worldwide demand for products and services drops. Retrenchment will come to Singapore. It always does. How will household pay their monthly installment? Downgrading will be the next option. Unless THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT. Those who hold properties are cheering for property price to go up. The patient ones will wait till there's blood in the street. If you have the time to wait, blood will eventually flow on the street. It always does.
How would you visualise the scenario should the housing sector drops. As an example the Singapore situation synchronises with the economy of the world. Would house owners stand resilient grinding it out with high interest rate, what soft landing measure implementation , how’s the impact on Sg economy etc.
Property prices will not crash but will stablised. Consolidation phase. 1. You got hdb prices sky high. Sellers will continue to support d private market. Spillover effect. 2. There is still plenty of liquidity sitting on d size. In short, property market will go only one way - UP
Aren't all the SIBOR-based home loan be automatically converted to the SCP by banks in June 2024? I read that SORA rates are comparatively lower so will this encourage more people to invest more into real estate?
Josh you are right in hitting peak due to the amount supply available and rental prices going down. You also look into the very detail in property transactions however you had missed out the most important part as the buying power of the younger Singaporean and their high pay means good purchasing power with their parents helping, A good example will be Lentor area with over supply yet every new launch on day 1 has at least a 35% units sold. I had just sold my condo and sitting on the sideline hopping that price will come down to earth however with the share market going up and up and HDB still has record selling prices seems condo is not going to price drop soon in Singapore. PSF of 2k and above will remains. Hopefully when some people start to renew their housing loan and realise their interest rates getting form 1.1% to 3% is just too high plus increase property tax plus maintenance may start lower the expectations due to want to sell out their property to cash out like me. Look into PLB selling listings as suddenly a high surge of sellers in the market engage them to sell at high price is truly signs of Peak too
I think your sit n wait is killing u..unimaginable if u take action earlier say even 3 years ago..your new Pty appreciate at least 100k per year.. is unfortunate u don’t acquire the knowledge of finding right Pty with right entry price ..instead u harvested a negative mindset everything is expensive now to enter n hope it will slide to pre Covid level..trust me, gov will not allow that to happen..remember covid time gov pressured bank to unconditionally give a 1 year loan deferment? Many benefited from that preventive measure..collecting 1 whole year rent and used that fund to reinvest.. now why will hdb still selling a million and price keep hoovering there? Because their buyers either down size from a handsome profitable private asset or being priced out from private ptys..is like a sandwich class..lastly, when Pty price are stable up, salary stable up, gst hike kick in.. construction cost up many percent point , new Pty have to sell higher to above breakeven..which lead to resale increase as well..sorry to say, wait for a Pty flyin to u with your desired lower price ain’t gonna happen..
Pty capital appreciation plus healthy rental easily out beat bank interest hike.. u as a private owner before should jolly know that..why u sell? U make a lot of cash right? Why panic now?
You know who bought all these millions dollars HDB flat units? it is the new mint Singaporeans, because my relative managed to sell off his 5rm hdb in dawson area for 1.4millions dollars.
That's the elephant in the room nobody wants to talk about...it will lead to artificially high prices n cause resentment. It's hard not to feel hard done for locals who don't have the same purchasing power.
Instead of spending time to find out something that’s has no value to yourself,,go figure what u can do now…Selling of 1.4m is nothing today,,actually u should find what your relative do with that cash proceed ..upgrade to next level or kiasi down grade and wasted away the cash..& ask yourself u belong to which category..
this is a tiny island with nothing extra land it not reclaimed from the sea to build housing it lost lots of taxes $ , so the land that can build public housing will just not go down unless hdb hv to build higher not just 13-25 levels it hv to be higher above 30 levels high so the prices hv to go down and clear the Queue
It will come down. No one doubts it. Question is by how much and for how long? Local people have strong holding power. So it’s wise to buy and wait instead of wait to buy
Just a thought…once interest rates are softened in 2024, prices will trend up again, even if existing measures to cool are still in place. Should there be an unexpectedly large down correction, all the govt has to do is to reverse the cooling measures bit by bit to keep everyone happy.
once interest rates are softened in 2024, prices will trend up again Not necessarily because on the converse when interest rates spiked in 2022 to 2023 prices continued to climb It will be a positive but there are other factors affecting supply and demand k
Don’t waste too much time On hdb data..falling demand doesn’t mean falling price..hdb is controlled, gov would not let hdb owners to suffer a loss when sell after mop ,unless is near expiring lease (even Tiong Bahru 49 left still sell a million over ) plus application low..which area??? Some are 5 times over application
@@chinchowpowpook I have certainly wasted 1 min reading your comment. Learn to read before commenting. Get your facts right before commenting. Don’t take peoples’ words out of context. If nothing better to say just keep quiet.
Cannot use CPF contributions to make monthly mortgage payments. You are not supposed to buy home from retirement savings and not contribute at to retirement. Too risky as all the investment goes in to a decaying lease asset. Trust me this will save trouble in future and cool prices
Why would you want property prices to come down when you are the governor? The market was designed in a away so property prices can rise slowly, any measure they implement is just trying to slow down, but never to make the price drop.
January private Pty performance is poor only because it's not a usual peak month for Pty sales, and also the projects are not the best options available. Each name is very precious so buyers are more selective with what they buy. Those who are sceptical will always wait on the sidelines and never get to own private ptys 😅
Yes Treasure at Tampines has 411 units to sell, but they will make a handsome profit because they bought at a low price. I just lower the selling price compared to my competition. Yes, I make less money, but still make a nice profit overall. 😊
Don't think Treasure at Tampines is a good example for your point.. there are more than 100+ profitable transactions( all with very health profits (150K+ for 1 bedder to 350K+ for 3 bedders+).
Those owned new condo before knows that whether to sell or to rent u just get agents do listings for next 2-3 years..we don’t care..objective is a mass effort awareness to buyers/tenants the price are hovering there..strong! That’s the beauty of new condo that just top, none will do fire sale listing, agent will also reject owner list lower selling Price.
Why is there even a panick sell off with lousy price ? Price will stable for some , some area are still spiking up.. rental are stable n healthy..if u bought any ptys 3/4 years back, capital appreciation should be at least 100-600k range..so even price down a little..why let go at lousy price is is a rentable asset.
January 2024 index went up could coincide with those buyers who had just completed their 15 months cooling measures. This is what happened to some of my friends who sold their private properties just when the cooling measures were implemented 😂
current high price is unsustainable, with recession loomimg around, price can only drop but when, no body know. My prediction is second to third quarter of 2024, remember with GE coming on the way, PAP would not want high housing price to affect their votes just like in 2011 when they lose Aljunied GRC together with a fall in the percentage, part of the reason due to runaway high housing price back then. They would not want history to repeat itself again.
Beg to differ, your theory is very familiar..every year always see this kind of msg..the current high price is acceptable by gov..they already mentioned is stable after 20 + round cooling measures , household income is gradually increasing n healthy..gst implemented..most owners have healthy rental lease.. more jobs created and more foreigners open gate in next few more years..Your “recession “ is within your own world..not even inline with realistic ground..price can only drop, yeah say that to ura who just rejected the sole bidding of developer whose bidding price gov deemed low..anyway we revisit here again to check out your big brain third quarter 2024..if I bother.
I generally think Singaporeans have an unhealthy relationship and view of what it means to own property, similar to cars. Some may genuinely be doing it for investment diversification but many are also all in on property as the major element of their overall net worth. The only real advantage of property investment in Singapore is the ability to leverage debt with the property as security plus the popular view that property prices will always increase (despite being demonstrated to be cyclical). I would say that the major reason for this is that Singapore has no capital gains tax for many residential property investors so long as you're not deemed to be trading so perhaps introducing such a regime would immediately restrain demand. On the condo listing part, 411 listings does not equate to 411 units available. Simply could be multiple listings for the same unit by co-brokers.
Agree that property being too big a component of net wealth can become problematic. Chinese were having that one train of belief and was only recently broken
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eh i just tried sia, not bad leh! tried to recommend it in the comments for you lol
Would like to highlight a point that might increase demand temporarily - the bumper crop of dragon babies born in 1988 have just turned 35 recently and the increasing number of singles among them will be looking to buy resale hdb.
Likely to inch up by 2.5 to 4% per year. Commensurate with general inflation rate. Unlikely to have another 8 to 10 percent per year boom
never say never, people buy irrespective of price if they can afford
The 400+ listings at Treasure, and the 300+ at Normanton. Need to take into account duplicate listings. Units usually could list more than 5 of them if there are many agents. Some agents repost new ones every few days as well. Also, the ABSD new rule, could be because gov couldn't get a good price for the recent land sale at Marina Bay, and decided not to sell. Didn't want this situation to happen again. Anyway, with the current interest rate environment, yet demand is still so strong, the property market is going to get hotter if interest rates fall next time
Some duplicate listing is a valid point
A condo just top, their to sell to rent listings is mega and Hoover for 2 years before it goes down ..plus there a togetherness effort of listing the higher price..educating buyers the basics price range at there..
Other than number of listings, can also look at the selling price. There are only a few units in treasure selling at below 1600psf. The launch psf was 1200 to 1400psf. They are not in hurry to sell.
Great video Josh with lots of research and was very insightful in the lens of '24 economic climate. Would be great to see a deep dive video into private property market and how you see the next few years shaping up.
Thank you for the high praise. Smash the subs, will review trends in 2Q24
nowadays, with tdsr of 60% and high absd, unlikely there is bubble in the market. Holding power is generally strong. Unless there is a significant economic slow down with lots of retrenchments, we are unlikely to see a decline in price. My place rental shoots up again.
Everything depends on jobs and demand for service. If jobs are gone like in Europe. who will have the money to pay for the houses? If worldwide demand for products and services drops. Retrenchment will come to Singapore. It always does. How will household pay their monthly installment? Downgrading will be the next option. Unless THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT. Those who hold properties are cheering for property price to go up. The patient ones will wait till there's blood in the street. If you have the time to wait, blood will eventually flow on the street. It always does.
its crazy to see. House price dropped a bit, I used Homer AI without having to talk to agent.
themikeygervin
Not accurate. Best you look at recent transacted prices of your condo or HDB
How would you visualise the scenario should the housing sector drops. As an example the Singapore situation synchronises with the economy of the world. Would house owners stand resilient grinding it out with high interest rate, what soft landing measure implementation , how’s the impact on Sg economy etc.
Thats hard to predict unfortunately
Performance of SG properties is quite a big contrast with SG REITs which have done very poorly over last 12 months.
Yes. Considering interest cost is gravity to all real estate prices
SG property is the magnificent 7 of Properties
Property prices will not crash but will stablised. Consolidation phase.
1. You got hdb prices sky high. Sellers will continue to support d private market. Spillover effect.
2. There is still plenty of liquidity sitting on d size.
In short, property market will go only one way - UP
In long property will only go up. In a 5y span, there are multiple periods of downs
And 5y is a long time to change peoples minds =)
Aren't all the SIBOR-based home loan be automatically converted to the SCP by banks in June 2024? I read that SORA rates are comparatively lower so will this encourage more people to invest more into real estate?
I guess it’s not a factor when people invest into properties?
Josh you are right in hitting peak due to the amount supply available and rental prices going down. You also look into the very detail in property transactions however you had missed out the most important part as the buying power of the younger Singaporean and their high pay means good purchasing power with their parents helping, A good example will be Lentor area with over supply yet every new launch on day 1 has at least a 35% units sold. I had just sold my condo and sitting on the sideline hopping that price will come down to earth however with the share market going up and up and HDB still has record selling prices seems condo is not going to price drop soon in Singapore. PSF of 2k and above will remains. Hopefully when some people start to renew their housing loan and realise their interest rates getting form 1.1% to 3% is just too high plus increase property tax plus maintenance may start lower the expectations due to want to sell out their property to cash out like me. Look into PLB selling listings as suddenly a high surge of sellers in the market engage them to sell at high price is truly signs of Peak too
Upcoming soon is an episode on young Singaporeans pay… stay tuned
I think your sit n wait is killing u..unimaginable if u take action earlier say even 3 years ago..your new Pty appreciate at least 100k per year.. is unfortunate u don’t acquire the knowledge of finding right Pty with right entry price ..instead u harvested a negative mindset everything is expensive now to enter n hope it will slide to pre Covid level..trust me, gov will not allow that to happen..remember covid time gov pressured bank to unconditionally give a 1 year loan deferment? Many benefited from that preventive measure..collecting 1 whole year rent and used that fund to reinvest.. now why will hdb still selling a million and price keep hoovering there? Because their buyers either down size from a handsome profitable private asset or being priced out from private ptys..is like a sandwich class..lastly, when Pty price are stable up, salary stable up, gst hike kick in.. construction cost up many percent point , new Pty have to sell higher to above breakeven..which lead to resale increase as well..sorry to say, wait for a Pty flyin to u with your desired lower price ain’t gonna happen..
Pty capital appreciation plus healthy rental easily out beat bank interest hike.. u as a private owner before should jolly know that..why u sell? U make a lot of cash right? Why panic now?
You know who bought all these millions dollars HDB flat units? it is the new mint Singaporeans, because my relative managed to sell off his 5rm hdb in dawson area for 1.4millions dollars.
That's the elephant in the room nobody wants to talk about...it will lead to artificially high prices n cause resentment. It's hard not to feel hard done for locals who don't have the same purchasing power.
Instead of spending time to find out something that’s has no value to yourself,,go figure what u can do now…Selling of 1.4m is nothing today,,actually u should find what your relative do with that cash proceed ..upgrade to next level or kiasi down grade and wasted away the cash..& ask yourself u belong to which category..
this is a tiny island with nothing extra land it not reclaimed from the sea to build housing it lost lots of taxes $ , so the land that can build public housing will just not go down unless hdb hv to build higher not just 13-25 levels it hv to be higher above 30 levels high so the prices hv to go down and clear the Queue
Is 1.5% actually only an "inch" up?
It will come down. No one doubts it. Question is by how much and for how long? Local people have strong holding power. So it’s wise to buy and wait instead of wait to buy
Just a thought…once interest rates are softened in 2024, prices will trend up again, even if existing measures to cool are still in place. Should there be an unexpectedly large down correction, all the govt has to do is to reverse the cooling measures bit by bit to keep everyone happy.
once interest rates are softened in 2024, prices will trend up again
Not necessarily because on the converse when interest rates spiked in 2022 to 2023 prices continued to climb
It will be a positive but there are other factors affecting supply and demand k
Application rate for latest round of BTO is considered low. Another sign of falling demand which will spill over to resale.
Noted on point of view
Don’t waste too much time On hdb data..falling demand doesn’t mean falling price..hdb is controlled, gov would not let hdb owners to suffer a loss when sell after mop ,unless is near expiring lease (even Tiong Bahru 49 left still sell a million over ) plus application low..which area??? Some are 5 times over application
@@chinchowpowpook I have certainly wasted 1 min reading your comment. Learn to read before commenting. Get your facts right before commenting. Don’t take peoples’ words out of context. If nothing better to say just keep quiet.
@@wz758 resale without restrictions of 10 year mop and claw back and rental restrictions will still have their charm..
Cannot use CPF contributions to make monthly mortgage payments. You are not supposed to buy home from retirement savings and not contribute at to retirement. Too risky as all the investment goes in to a decaying lease asset. Trust me this will save trouble in future and cool prices
tubeofvideos
This will cause the bubble to burst
which tab on which website do you go to , to get these data? very useful
Some data points are from SRX. Hope it answers and smash the SUBS =)
HDB flat prices not likely to drop unless there is recession
Great sharing. Thanks.
Thank you for the high praise
With lower estimated condo completion numbers in 2024 and 2025, does it mean that with lower supply means higher prices.
its closer to a average 10y amount
Why would you want property prices to come down when you are the governor? The market was designed in a away so property prices can rise slowly, any measure they implement is just trying to slow down, but never to make the price drop.
True true
Most effective cooling measure is to restrict foreign buyers but the government will not do it because our banks will collapse.
Absd has cut foreign buyers to only a few % only
January private Pty performance is poor only because it's not a usual peak month for Pty sales, and also the projects are not the best options available. Each name is very precious so buyers are more selective with what they buy. Those who are sceptical will always wait on the sidelines and never get to own private ptys 😅
Oh a simple way for analysis is to compare jan23tojan24
Yes Treasure at Tampines has 411 units to sell, but they will make a handsome profit because they bought at a low price. I just lower the selling price compared to my competition. Yes, I make less money, but still make a nice profit overall. 😊
Super big project as well… plus likely double or triple listings
Aware that most are listing at a profit. Ive studied the profitable transactions there.
A case of rising tide raises all boats?
Don't think Treasure at Tampines is a good example for your point.. there are more than 100+ profitable transactions( all with very health profits (150K+ for 1 bedder to 350K+ for 3 bedders+).
Exactly, so when u ask people to smash the like button as it has taken your team hours to put up this content, please make sure the content is good.
Those owned new condo before knows that whether to sell or to rent u just get agents do listings for next 2-3 years..we don’t care..objective is a mass effort awareness to buyers/tenants the price are hovering there..strong! That’s the beauty of new condo that just top, none will do fire sale listing, agent will also reject owner list lower selling Price.
but the prices havent trended down in condo sales yet.
Why is there even a panick sell off with lousy price ? Price will stable for some , some area are still spiking up.. rental are stable n healthy..if u bought any ptys 3/4 years back, capital appreciation should be at least 100-600k range..so even price down a little..why let go at lousy price is is a rentable asset.
CPF SA closure after 55....Property clamp down should be coming soon lol
Feel sorry for HDB buyers and dwellers. Getting screwed left right center.
The banks are the beneficiary.
January 2024 index went up could coincide with those buyers who had just completed their 15 months cooling measures. This is what happened to some of my friends who sold their private properties just when the cooling measures were implemented 😂
Interesting point lol
Hi Josh Tan, Which website shows you the availability of condon units number for sales? I can't find them at the website your have recommended. Thanks
Hi, think i screenshot from propertyguru
Property agents will have these info
I use Homer AI when I sold my condo, no need to talk to agent.
Can.... Implement a tax of 30% for HDB selling 1million and above. Immediately bring down the value.😆😆😆
Haha 30% will never happen. PLH profit tax is only a few percentage as a reference
current high price is unsustainable, with recession loomimg around, price can only drop but when, no body know. My prediction is second to third quarter of 2024, remember with GE coming on the way, PAP would not want high housing price to affect their votes just like in 2011 when they lose Aljunied GRC together with a fall in the percentage, part of the reason due to runaway high housing price back then. They would not want history to repeat itself again.
Beg to differ, your theory is very familiar..every year always see this kind of msg..the current high price is acceptable by gov..they already mentioned is stable after 20 + round cooling measures , household income is gradually increasing n healthy..gst implemented..most owners have healthy rental lease.. more jobs created and more foreigners open gate in next few more years..Your “recession “ is within your own world..not even inline with realistic ground..price can only drop, yeah say that to ura who just rejected the sole bidding of developer whose bidding price gov deemed low..anyway we revisit here again to check out your big brain third quarter 2024..if I bother.
Lol why must come down?
Not a must, just a natural cycle up and down
I generally think Singaporeans have an unhealthy relationship and view of what it means to own property, similar to cars. Some may genuinely be doing it for investment diversification but many are also all in on property as the major element of their overall net worth. The only real advantage of property investment in Singapore is the ability to leverage debt with the property as security plus the popular view that property prices will always increase (despite being demonstrated to be cyclical). I would say that the major reason for this is that Singapore has no capital gains tax for many residential property investors so long as you're not deemed to be trading so perhaps introducing such a regime would immediately restrain demand.
On the condo listing part, 411 listings does not equate to 411 units available. Simply could be multiple listings for the same unit by co-brokers.
Agree that property being too big a component of net wealth can become problematic. Chinese were having that one train of belief and was only recently broken
they should just remove the 15 month cooling period. lol seems useless.
whoops
They should increase it to 30 months.
If you want to own a large home at a reasonable price, you have to say good-bye to Singapore and live elsewhere. We did.
Where did you all choose?
Heheh,,u did yet still checkout this video here..either u blufff or u envy us u just exited a solid safe country
Love to see how all these comments are so optimistic about high property prices in singapore. LOL!
Just another sour grape
Missed out on the bull run? Haha