Crossing the Chasm: Articulating the Tesla Bull Case (Ep. 33)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 ก.พ. 2020
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Watch this video on what a 10x company is:
My TSLA Exit Plan, • Tesla Stock Surging! …...
In this video I share a framework on how we can understand disruption and choose the big winners before other people do.
In Geoffrey Moore’s classic book, Crossing the Chasm, he shares some key principles that help us understand the technology product life cycle and why certain products make it to the mainstream and others fail.
Crossing the chasm means when a product, service or technology moves from the early adopters to an even larger market, known as the Mainstream market.
In order to cross the bridge from the Early market over to the Mainstream Market, a product must be a whole product, and simply easy-to-use.
Currently the big achilles heel for electric vehicles is long distance travel.
Tesla’s strategy was to mitigate this disadvantage by providing free supercharging access with a dense network of superchargers.
And they further mitigated this disadvantage by making an electric car that was more compelling in almost every area (performance, safety, technology, design, handling, storage capacity, etc) than the comparable ICE car in its price category.
By doing so Tesla was able to provide a more compelling whole product, and had a chance against the current ICE ecosystem.
Non-Tesla auto makers are not providing a whole product with their electric vehicles, since they don’t have dense fast charging networks to mitigate the inconvenience of long distance travel.
Ford, GM, Toyota, VW, BMW, Mercedes - all seem to be waiting for demand to pick up before “investing” in fast charging networks of their own.
Further, auto makers aren’t even trying to disrupt their current ICE cars, and aren’t making EVs that are more compelling than their ICE cars at the same price.
By preserving their profits on their ICE cars, they are hesitant to go all-in in EVs.
Here are some questions that are answered in the Q&A section:
miledy116
Outstanding!! Many thanks for this video. I'm a Tesla bull but still like to see you talking the darker side of the story. For example: What if Giga4 can't be finished on time? What happen if Elon quits? Should we be worried about collaboration between legacy automaker and tech giants? How long do we have to wait until Tesla has enough capacity to supply the whole world? Build quality of Tesla cars
Patrick R
Given your love of reading (which I share), is there a reason you're publishing only on video (and podcast)? As you point out, reading provides such a higher bandwidth. Having content in writing makes it easier to absorb quickly, review, comment, annotate, highlight, and reference, to mention just a few.
H mejia
Hey Dave, are you putting together a team? I want in. Serious.
Please share this video with others on Reddit, Facebook groups, and forums.
Check out my archived articles/posts on Tesla: teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threa...
Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Author is long TSLA at time of original video publish date.
Tags: Tesla, Elon Musk, Model 3, Model Y, Cybertruck, Investing, China, TSLA Shorts
The way you articulate your thoughts on Tesla is spot on. Also you’re one of the few that’s so thorough in answering people’s questions. Thanks for all you do!
My kids love being at supercharger. because that means TH-cam or Netflix. And yes I’ve done road trips with my kids they love it, most of the time they asked me to stop before we need to charge. That’s why we never have range anxiety.
Fantastic insights, you nailed it on this video 👍
Insightful, logical and well articulated analysis Dave.
Two thumbs up! 🤗
Cathy did not say that traditional auto makers would be able to make an electric car cheaper than an ICE car within 2 years. I think she was inferring in her statement that Tesla would be able to offer one that beats ICE car prices within 2 years, but not the other auto makers.
One word for this video WOW ,this video opened my mind up so much.True gold dust
Dave's favorite word = "compelling"
Good video Dave! It all comes down to customers being familiar with the new technology ( which I think will happen even more when the decrease in cost of cars will make more people interested to find out more about what EV’s can offer).
Great content. Learned a lot. Thanks
I remember Elon and Franz saying at various talks and presentation “In order to succeed, the new product has to be better than the current one in almost every aspect”
I’m a big fan of how you articulate your thoughts and ideas. I’m a beginner when it comes to trading (robinhood) and what you say makes a lot of sense compared to other TH-camrs that just elaborate on what mainstream is has already said or predicted. I’m learning a lot. Keep them coming and thank you
Hey Dave, thanks for the great videos! Someone may have asked a similar question, but do you have any recommend materials for reading? Thanks!
Hi Dave, fascinating video. I have heard of the adaption curve at least 10 times but have never comprehended it so much. You have a super power at explaining things.
Thank you so much for making this content!
Great to be of help!
Great post. Astute. Thank you.
Really enjoy your videos. Would love a new intro ;)
Can you share what stock do you have in your portfolio other than Tesla? We’d love to hear it:) Is that too risky to go all in on Tesla?
Thanks Dave for the breakdown. You're the best.
Thank you for always sharing such insightful knowledge.
Q: Would you mind sharing little about your other investments, what type of investment strategy you adhered to over the years and any generational bloopers along the way?
As I shifted from a value investment mindset to take on more risk with short-mid term investments, so far so good but would like to heard your philosophy.
Nice hair cut, looks fressssh!
I think another key is that the product needs to be better AND be affordable to the mass market.
Hey Dave! Good video again love seeing your long term views or TSLA and others!
In 2014 you projected that TSLA by 2020 could be worth 130-150B (what you called TSLA 3.0). Seems you were mostly right. Would love to hear your your thoughts today on TSLA 3.0 but also other scenarios 4.0-6.0? by 2025-2030. Thanks for posting your collection of TMC articles. Here is the link to your TSLA3.0 post : teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/articles-megaposts-by-davet.23473/page-45#post-745891
I bought a Tesla Model 3. It's a very undervalued car. I live in Canada and it gets to -20C sometimes. The car is a beast!
Yes, Model 3 is extremely underrated!
You are the best man!👍
The best man? Or the best, man?
I wasn't sure where you were going with this me being an audio/video enthusiast. I've been an early adapter for many electronics components, equipment software CD, SACD, DVDA Dvd, hddvd, blu ray, and others. Its fun to be on the front line of cutting edge techniques but know oh too well the pain of seeing these technology go away as fast as they've come.
Thanks so much Dave. You provide outstanding insights.
Gosh dang it Dave. Your arguments, lessons, and insight on Tesla just gives me more and more fomo about Tesla. I literally get anxiety watching your videos because your quantitative and qualitative analysis is so spot on that it makes me ask myself “ Why aren’t you invested in Tesla yet?” Haha soon though!
Did you end up investing in Tesla in the end?
Hey Dave, great video as always, could you please move the white boxes/cases under the desk? Thanks :)
👍
@@Dave_Lee Thank you! :) All about keeping a professional image
Can you explain more about the concept of “escape velocity” that you referred to in your video?
Overcoming gravity or getting out of reach of that which is holding you back. Like a rocket burning fuel to reach a speed at which it can "escape" earth's gravity and when it has done this it can carry on into infinity. Just like tesla's business!
I agree. I have always held the view that unless your innovation is convincingly better than the existing alternative it won't succeed.
Awesome advice as alway Dave, thank you. Subscribed!! :)
Team Dave! I always hit that like button! Idea for an upcoming video: dive into “whales”,“gurus” and funds that have recently started buying Tesla. And for bonus pts go over outstanding shares- long term investors who don’t plan on selling to see what is left out there on the market and daily volume compared to updated short position. 👍 good luck deciphering my terrible writing.
Very good analysis. One comment: I think a lot of people miss that the need for charging network craters when you hit 500-600 miles of range. At that point you are probably destination charging. I suspect most long distance travelers are not spending more than 10hrs on the road a day. I watched this happen at smaller scale in town. All the chargers around town that were built early on to support the 20-50 mile range EVs are now irrelevant to our Model 3. With 300 mile range in the Model 3, we don't even think about chargers in town and just charge at home. When the 500 mile range Cybertruck is around we won't even use Supercharger network for our long distance travel. At the point you hit 500-600 or 10hrs of daily driving you probably have an overall experience that far exceeds ICE as you don't stop to charge or fill at all. You just stop when you want to stop and fill at destination. We saw this with ICE in the early days when gas stations were every 40 miles just to top off the water in the radiator. All those little stations died out as the range increased for the ICE cars.
I really enjoy your videos. 10/10 quality
Hi Dave. This is your best video yet. There is an important group of potential buyers that aren't represented fully on the chasm chart. EVs have the potential to save the planet and there is a segment of the market that will buy one for that reason alone. Those people are integrated into the broader market and will help with EVs crossing the chasm.
#Team 2
Great video Dave. There are now some other possibilities to invest in with the first to Cross the chasm idea
Hello Dave, I enjoy watching your video and learn how to learn about a company. I wanted to ask what do you think about SPCE Company and UFO etf. Your response is appreciated
I answered a question about SPCE in a previous video. Check it out.
11:57 When Cathy Wood says she thinks EVs are going to do this or that in a given time frame, she really means Tesla. I don't think she thinks BMW and Toyota are going to be able to make EVs on parity with their ICE catalog anytime soon, if ever (as a number of ICE manufactures are destined to go out of business before this transition is done). More specifically, I think she's referring to battery technology coming down in price (as batteries are the most significant EV price factor). Even with this, I think Cathy is a bit optimistic in her time tables. I think clearly though EVs have a LOT more opportunity for refinement than the already mature ICE platform, and will eventually result in a product that is clearly cheaper to manufacture (for at least those who are masters of the EV platform). Great over all analysis though.
Toyota mastered hybrid and is now switching focus to electric WITH PANASONIC! .... Hmmm I think Toyota could have a $30,000 or $25,000 hit car coming .. with EV sales ramping they have time and can buy self driving technology.. there is nothing stopping them from making good motors or batteries is there ? Are efficient batteries and motors only Tesla patented proprietary motors? I think others can create their own close to Tesla, but Toyota quality can even beat Tesla on ease of repair, reliability and safety. When Tesla is taking Toyota sales they will respond strongly .. if they don’t they will be out of business after electric cars dominate in 3-7 years. Go Toyota! You can do it!
@@wonderplanet343 I guess we'll see what Toyota manages to come up with. Honda certainly didn't pull it off (nor did any of the other manufacturers 'destined to destroy Tesla'). As good looking as the Honda E is, and I really do like the esthetic, it's not truly competitive with Tesla. I wouldn't be surprised if Toyota's $25k car is in the same boat (if they can even hit that target).
@@wonderplanet343 -- That sounds a lot like what ANALysts were saying on CNBC from 2013-to/through-2016. Except they were talking about AUDI, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche. _"When the big boys come, they'll eat Tesla's lunch!"_ Sorry, no.
Tesla had been running in desperate fear of _'The Big Boys'_ since 2008. They began to release their patents _'on good faith'_ in 2014 because they saw _'The Big Boys'_ were in fact doing NOTHING to follow them, despite their example. They should have been, but they didn't.
The ones that had an inside view of Tesla, both *Daimler* and *Toyota,* left the Tesla board in a huff in 2014 and had largely divested of TSLA by 2015. ANALysts saw this as a _'bad sign' (just like ever other bad omen they perceived floating about Tesla management)_ that *Elon Musk* was _'crazy', 'out of control', 'unreasonable', 'childish', 'impertinent', 'difficult'_ or simply _'out of his mind'._ They said, _"The last adults have left the room, Tesla is DOOMED."_
Personally, I suspect it went something like this...
*_"Oh, come on Elon... We all know you won't EVER actually release a 'car for the masses' will you? It's a pipe dream! Impossible! Look, we've seen your books, we know you are low on cash... So why don't you let us help you out a bit, eh? Just give us your battery technology and motors, we'll adapt them ourselves for our own projects, we'll each give you a big pile of cash... What'll you say? Well sure, you've told us before you'd like us to build long range vehicles en masse, but we don't have to! Our Customers are used to gas cars, see? So if you'll stop being so childish and stubborn, then we can get down to business! We'll meld your technology with ours to make plug-in hybrids and improved HFCEVs, our own engineers will take care of the details, they're smart guys. We just need you to give us a license and promise not to help anyone else... Just sign here, and tell ya what? We'll even throw in a couple little chrome 'POWERED BY TESLA' badges for each one we build! How's that sound?"_*
Both larger companies were utterly horrified when *Elon Musk* told them flatly and unceremoniously, *_"NO. We aren't going to do that. Ever."_* So, each of them took their ball and went home. Each fully expecting that without their _'help',_ without their _'guidance & experience',_ and without their *MONEY* Tesla would go out of business, run out of cash, and file bankruptcy in mere months.
But that didn't happen, did it?
Toyota put all their eggs in the basket marked *MIRAI.* Claimed it was... _'The FUTURE!'_ Declared that electric cars had no chance, and proceeded to build 3,000 units of the MIRAI from 2015-2018. Meanwhile, they built around 10,000,000 ICE vehicles per year. Essentially 0.01% of their annual capacity was spent building those HFCEVs. Talk about dedication.
Mercedes-Benz built a compliance quantity of S-Class that included a plug for minimal amounts of all electric range for their copious gas guzzling. Hardly anyone bought them. And they still haven't reclaimed the #1 position among high end flagship vehicles they had enjoyed for decades prior to the release of Model S in U.S. sales. Instead, the S-Class has trailed Model S in 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 U.S. sales -- at least it didn't fall below the #2 position _'in class'._
@@bujin5455 -- I think Toyota will instead aim for a $35,000 price target for the Corolla, and a $42,000 price target for the Camry. Expect a similar path by Honda with the Civic and Accord. Remember, even Cadillacs had to stretch to exceed $5,000 for a long time. By the 1980s a _'cheap'_ car was under $5,000. But shortly after, the $10,000 price point was abandoned by reputable brands. Very few NEW cars can be had for less than $15,000 today. And a lot of previously _'cheap, compact'_ cars are nearing or over $20,000 when _'well equipped'._ That's the same price range of the average ten-year-old used car these days in the U.S.
As such, I expect major manufacturers intend to abandon the $20,000 and $25,000 price points in rapid succession in the next five years. Millions more Americans are content to buy _'New to ME'_ used cars that are around ten years old than buying NEW these days. No one wants to leave cash on the hood anymore.
So in the interest of profitability and making buying a _'NEW'_ car something special, prices will continue to go up. 30 years ago, the Average Sale Price of a new car was $15,000. Today? It is $38,000. Inflation, and sticker shock, really suck.
See, cars have grown a lot larger and heavier over the course of the last thirty years in addition to more expensive. Partly to add new crash safety avoidance features while also wiping out fuel economy. These changes negated the disadvantages of electric vehicles. So, no... EVs no longer have to approach or be offered for the _'same price point'_ as the cheapest ICE vehicles. Four years ago the ~$12,000 Nissan VERSA was being outsold by the ~$36,000 BMW 3-Series. And by 2018 the Tesla Model 3 was outselling them BOTH.
@@redxsage I think it's next to impossible for Toyota to compete with Telsa on a range to price level, and they certainly can't in terms of tech. But like I said, I guess we'll see.
This is a great video, thank you!
Episode idea: Future electric grid demand as EV’s become more mainstream, it will become an issue, or will it? Easy calculations to estimate demand and model in efficiencies like a smart grid, and using cars as back up power at peak demand, perhaps less need for huge expensive and dangerous transmission lines because power may become more decentralized. I believe these changes are coming soon.
Hi Dave, great video. I have been in involved in TSLA since 2014 now, when Vincent Everts, a tech influencer in the Netherlands let me drive his S. Anyway, I did a lot of research into this quarter and the expected earnings. I really think people are going to get burned who bought into the fomo. In the end it doesn't really matter, but I do think the coming quarter is going to be a huge loss moneywise.
Fortunately I live in a country with no cap gains but I would love to hear your thoughts about the expected Q1 earnings, especially when comparing to Q4 2018 -> Q1 2019.
Huge TSLA bull, but I do think the market will overreact next earnings.
I agree with your analysis. The legacy car companies want to look like they are cool, environmentally friendly, and modern but it would be suicide for them to produce EVs in mass quantities require to compete with Tesla. They would rather slow the acceptance of EVs my only making a few of them (50,000 Ford Mustang Mach E), or make them hard to get (not available in dealer showrooms). They have no desire to write-off billions of dollars in stranded assets of their existing internal combustion engine (ICE) machinery, while at the same time investing billions of dollars in manufacturing EVs that they can't make a profit because of lack of vertical integration. EVs that are practically maintenance free so the OEMs and their dealership network will lose the parts and maintenance revenue. If they began mass producing EVs their stock would plummet because of the huge CAPEx expenses combined with falling profits.
The legacy car companies can't make an EV that is cheaper than their current ICE cars in 2 years, but Tesla and the new startups can.
Hi, Dave... Great video as usual... Do you have other examples of other companies you are invested in of crossing the chasm aside from Tesla? What other starting companies are you considering at the moment?
Thank you so much for your videos on investing. I'm learning a lot from them. Since I'm early in my own research to find 10x companies, I'm currently "all in" on TSLA.
Great video. What about VW and electrify america? Its a start.
Great episode and explanation on the entire product ecosystem!
One car company that is proving it can do well in this space .. KIA .. it has gone under the radar as it is not a luxury brand. However, they have the designer from Audi and has made attractive Electrics. They have the ability to join TSLA in this space. Maybe not sell as many as TSLA but they will compete and especially on VALUE.
Good content. Keep it up!
Tesla all the way!
Great show Dave. Realy informative again.
Dave, can you discuss the demand collapse in Europe in January and loss of tax credit in the US?
A month is too small a sample. Most auto makers no longer report monthly sales.
France had a boomer January up 280% and Germany is up 128% YOY. Holland went ballistic in Q4 and Britain will this year, both because of incentives.
Tesla only has one supply point and exports late in each quarter. There are no Teslas available in Europe for sale - all sold in Q4. Ships are only now landing in Brussels. Al;though Tesla moves inventory around the world to cater to incentives starting and ending, they sell all they can make so are not suffering from incentives disappearing. They also cut prices and change range/features to cater for local incentives limits (eg Germany, Canada...)
@@waynerussell6401 Thank you.
What about other 10x companies and why you think they are 10x?
Love the insight and deep dive. Keep it up.
VW is dead serious about making a compelling EV. Even if this means they are eating away from their ICE business. The big challenge is will they be able to produce sufficient batteries for their cars.
Dave, I realized that my early investments in Tesla in the $2-3-400 range were way too small. Rather than crying over spilt milk, I have been watching your videos, doing a lot more research, and realizing that even at today's prices, the probability of major upward movement is very high. Therefore I bought another large tranche at $840 today. So if it tanks to $600 I'm holding you personally responsible! Just kidding.. and on a related note I think we're going to see $1k before the end of the month, and I think the stock is going to SURGE after battery day. Of course, Q1 results are a wild card, so they should put battery day after announcing Q1 to get everyone happy again.
I think you've made a good move... It's expensive @ $840 - only if you can't afford it at that price (like me...). But if you can put $840 in without risking things like your mortgage, or putting food on the table for the kids, then this is a bet worth taking for a relatively long-term hold.
@@brunosmith6925 The stock market is not for most people. Average Jo loses money trading. The best use of most individuals time is leveling up their own skills so they can get higher pay or open their own businesses to make more money. Not stock picking or trading.
@@kaya051285 There is a difference between TRADING and INVESTING. Trading is for short-term gain, where shares are bought and sold at high frequency, in an attempt to garner a profit. It's very speculative and higher risk.
Investing is holding a belief in a company for a relatively longer term, trusting that the company will prosper and grow. Investors look more towards capital growth (in the stock price) and the potential of dividend returns... possibly in time liquidating the actual stock one holds (or a portion of it) to make a capital gain.
I am in the latter camp, and have shares in several companies - some I have had for over 30 years (which will help fund my retirement).
Yea, I've been kicking myself for not seizing the opportunity back in May/June of last year (2019) when there was a market correction (TSLA than was at its recent lowest at ~$179).
Granted, I was/am a beginning investor (very, very beginner), but Tesla was on my radar (thanks to the "Financial Education" channel; I wasn't aware of Dave Lee's channel back then). I was considering it as I had the cash and I could afford it, and frantically looking for more info.
I asked my [professional] engineer brother-in-law about what he thought of Tesla, *particularly in terms of investment* , he pointed out that there were/are other automotive fuel techs such as hydrogen fuel being worked on for alternative fuel sources. This thawed my consideration for Tesla and got me looking for info on hydrogen fuel development.
Anyway, long story short, I missed out back then!!! :(
Today, Feb 19, 2020, 11:45am, TSLA at $929.84, so you think it is still good to get in?
I think Tesla will probably top $1K by the closing of today.
Please tell us about water electrolysis and it use for water clean up. And opportunity for tesla on this field.
Thanks!!!!!
Awesome lesson Dave! Thank you again!
love your videos but i see its all about tesla. i love tesla but i would love if you talk about other stocks as well
Just fyi, a lot of the principles I talk about can be applied to many stocks.
What about servicing? this carries a lot of profit for ICE vehicles.
You're awesome.
excellent analysis.. thank you for helping me not selling my shares
Dave, I’m new to your channel and already have mad respect for your insightful analysis and commentary. I share your conviction on TSLA and would love to know what other companies you consider to be generational investment opportunities. Keep up the amazing work!
What other assets are you invested in that helps pay for your cost of living? I’m still in the daily grind and would love your insight. Thanks
hello Dave
Can you talk about how you think the legacy auto companies will migrate away from the ICE and what impact this will have on the dependant infrastructures.
Dave are u at liberty to say to what % of ones portfolio should b in a stock like TSLA
I recommend at least 10% to 20%. Putting all your eggs in one basket is dangerous and very risky. If you are in your 20s early 30s, you can take a little more risk, so 20% to 30% of your portfolio.
I'm planning on 25%. Turned 49 today.
Can't see Tesla slowing down rapid growth for at least a decade.
Turning 60 this year, feel like I am 30. Had the honor of working on computer vision in 1992 for cars. When I saw Mr. Musk speak at Autonomous day I saw he had it right and I put 90% into TSLA and 10% into TSLA LEAPS. He is right LIDAR is not needed. I will hold TSLA for many years. If TSLA will be worth several thousand in a few years why not go all in like me? If it goes bad you can sell. Remember pick the right stock and concentrate to build wealth OR diversify if your not sure what to do. I am not a financial adviser just a retired software guy that made a couple million in 1992 selling computer vision using cameras and neural nets accelerated with an ASIC chip. Remember if RoboTaxi becomes viable it will be THE SINGLE biggest step up in value than anything in history. Pray for wisdom, that is what I do.
@@randydiver3076 Best job I had was in an R&D computer software team for a year.
I think I'll option up. I've reduced my cost of living to the minimum, growing and raising my own food, lots of Solar and an old Nissan Leaf. I'm in a position where I could still loose 50% and be OK in the future.
I doubt Tesla will do anything but grow exponentially. It's up to 920 again on after hours trades. I'll see where it at on Friday.
Dave - Great description of why Tesla will exponentially grow in volume and profits.
I think Kathy was saying that she thinks that in two years Tesla will come out with vehicles that are better and less expensive than comparable ICE cars upfront and very much less expensive over the live of the vehicles. Tony Seba’s research similarly shows that the tech convergence will result in a 10x decrease in the full cost of moving in a car with a FSD EV operated on a ride hailing basis.
Episode Idea: Although Tesla is an amazing example, I am also curious at how you look at companies that are at an earlier stage. Personally I have been looking at Peloton and I see a lot of similarities with an early Tesla. They offer the whole product and are disrupting an industry. Their product design, UX, NPS, CX and retention are great, and there's plenty of room for the network effect. Would love to hear your perspective on this, or any other company that's at a similar stage.
Or you make the charging network universal. Wait they dont want to work with tesla
Always a joy.... have you ever thought about writing a book ?
Yes would love to
then you should, might be a great experience :-)
Thanks Dave for your insights! I have a question. I am new stock investing and I've spent lots of hours of studying the business and I decided to invest long term. When I decided to invest, the stock was valued at $450. My wife and I thought, let's just wait until it drops a little but since the price was rising for some time. But the value has been skyrocketed and we kept saying let's just wait a bit... the price Must come down a little bit, right? and the stock is valued at $880 as I am writing this post after trade hours. I feel so bad for the missed opportunities! Every time I want to invest, I keep thinking, the price must come down... I do believe in the company so I should invest. But I just don't know what I should do. Can you give me some guide? Thanks!
Chung Kenneth if you want to invest for long-term, look for the price for long-term, not the every day price. Also, look up dollar cost average, would help.
I wonder what the monetary value of Teslas Supercharging network is worth?
Does anyone think the shares will settle down after last night's rally?
I thought they had finally settled around 750 for a few weeks at least.
Dave u r my new go-to guru👌
Porsche just did. Bill Gate.
hocules so uber rich guy signals crossing the chasm? You completely missed the idea of the video.
Volkswagen sounds like they are gonna try - with Electrify America- and the ID car line up - However yet to see real production....
I'd love if your "sidekick" was a Tesla bear that you can actually have a civil, well informed and articulate debate with. I like how you always strive to see the whole picture and that would definitely bring that bar to a whole other level. I'm a bull myself but try to balance my perspective by hearing the bear perspective but it's currently full of so much fringe conspiracy that I just can't even listen.
I wish early bitcoin developers understood this before they convinced the gen pop that it’s basically impossible to use.
Make a daily DaveShow that cover 1 big or interesting investing news and give your opinion . I believe lots of people would love to hear your views over CNBC, on the way to work or after get home. Great value for everyone and not much work for you.
Thanks Dave - compelling analysis everyday - why not monetise your channel on Patreon - I know I would pay for this excellent advice....
I don’t think your idea is a bad one. However, I presume Dave doesn’t need the money, and going the the Patreon route, may impact on the benevolent ‘master-student’ feel of these videos/lectures? Maybe a donate link might give viewers an opportunity to ‘pay’ respects? I don’t know.
I like not having to sit through adverts too.
Thanks for the suggestion, Rob.
I think taking Patreon donations would make me feel obligated to make these videos and at a certain frequency, whereas now I have the freedom to take a break if needed and post when I want to.
Yes agree completely!
Great analysis! While Tesla grows 4% per day. Can you share your top growth or dividend stocks? My "blue chip" favorites grow 0.5 % -1% per day. Enjoy your efforts to explain this exponential growth stock, Tesla. Learned so much about ICE ecosystem.Thank You, Dave.
Dave Tesla/Musk had to deal with the 2008 downturn and it very very nearly took them out. So Tesla has dealt with a major down turn of the economy. As a matter of fact one of Musks unique and defining qualities is his undeterred and completely unwavering focus and determination to succeed.
Joseph Lemieux I would imagine Dave meant since they have been trading on the market there has not been a significant recession, Because when a company is privately owned they can be less focused on the stock performance and more on growth and R&D at their own pace. Tesla also was not producing cars to the masses at that 2008-2009 point and so they would not have been effected to the degree they would if something on the demand side happened for example next year.
I love EVs and I think the cost/tradeoff is smart, but long trip charging is extra effort. That's the only negative I tell people.
Hi Dave. I'm curious what you think about Amazon as a company? In my view, they have long been a disrupter like Tesla and still are. They've also had compelling services and have executed quite well over time. Unfortunately I didn't buy their stock back in 2000. I could have retired if I did at 200x growth. And now they're stock seems to be over valued, but I'm wondering if you think their growth prospects are still good? Thanks. Love your channel.
Can you do a video on the taxi services, the details of how it works and cost ? Thank you.
Dave Lee you should get together with Gali from Hyperchange and do a video, also Jeremy from Financial Education! My 🧠 would expose at that point!
The question shouldn't be why haven't the other car companies electrified their cars. The question should be why haven't the other car companies Electrified their car range with price point above £43,000 (price of a model 3SR+)
The answer is simple, almost no VW model has a price point that high. The polo £12,500 the golf £18,000 the Tiguan £20,000 are their three big sellers and the price point is a fraction of a model 3 @£43,000
When and if an EV powertrain gets cheap enough to produce a compelling clone they will do it but we aren't close
The ID3 is meant to be £30,000 so it's still significantly more expensive than the £18,000 golf size car it will compete against
I hope costs fall and I hope EVs win but I don't blame the ICE car companies they are doing what makes sense given the much higher costs of EVs they don't believe their customers would be willing or able to pay the premium of £30,000 ID3 Vs £18,000 for a regular petrol Golf
This is before you even consider the reality that about 1/3rd of Europe live in apartments so have no way to recharge at home. And in some countries like Turkey and China 99% of homes are apartments
VW will not be able to drive ANY of their ICE vehicles in major European cities within the next decade.
@@bigdougscommentary5719
I've heard this before but it makes no sense. European regulators won't bankrupt their own car companies to enrich some wall Street Tesla investors.
EU regulations will be tightened only as fast as EU car manufacturers can comfortably meet them. The opposite view is absurd to suggest the EU will kill its own car industry with over regulations
ICT cars company should come to Tesla to buy the franchise to produce Tesla standard cars. If they do this Tesla stock will sky rocket like IBM clones era Intel stock.
I reckon a lot of small kids would be delighted to be set free from the car for a twenty minute steam-letting session every couple of hundred miles! Isn't that what parents do whichever car they're using?
Hi Dave ...... i have a question and a suggestion for a video: my question is: with Tesla stock, should we stop thinking in a tradition manner? The bears are complaining that the market cap is waaay more than the actual value of the company. But one could make the same argument for a van Gogh painting. $200 mil is waaaay more than it's practical worth. But that's irrelevant. It's worth that much because people are willing to pay that much. Same with Bitcoin. What makes a bitcoin worth $9000? Simply, the market decides it's worth that much. So can't the same mode of thinking be applied to Tesla stock? Because it's a cult stock, based around an idea, an aspiration and based around a brilliant cult figure. People want to own a part of it. So the market decides the value, regardless of the "traditional" value. Maybe that's why the "experts" in Wall Street have been so confounded by the performance. Due to their inability to think outside the normal financial "box"........I'd be interested on you r thoughts on this. Thanks!
Dazzer1234567 Of course you can but where is the bottom for the stock when the cult gets crushed by a recession
@@per.kallberg that wasn't my question, obviously the bottom can fall out of any market if circumstances become dire enough.....
Dazzer1234567 It doesn’t really fall out if the valuations is based on solid performance. The hype is what falls out. Current price is based on future revenue... It would be like saying the Van Gogh painting is made by someone else. Painting is still the same
@@per.kallberg ok, but that's exactly my question, what is the techincal reason that the total stock value can't remain much higher than the sale value of the company? If people decide the stock value is 7k, why is that wrong if, say, the company only has a sale value of 150 billion?
Dazzer1234567 In the end it all comes down to earnings. Stock price is more or less based on current earnings + expected future earnings. Tesla has a very high price compared to the current earnings because the expectations are very high for the future. Mainly because of the information given in this video. No obvious competition with a more complete product. If you invest your money you would want the company to transform your 100$ in to 130$ or 1000$ in 5years. If not you might want to invest elsewhere.
Hi Dave, can you comment on NIO? They have a whole package for EV to travel long distance with battery swapping technology.
I answered a question on NIO in one of my previous videos.
@@Dave_Lee Thanks, let me check!
Brilliant analysis. Interesting point: early adopter phase is over (OEMs efd)
Not sure how old your children are, but wondering if they can be part of a video 'duo' with you - even if just on occasion.
I feel like having found a GOLD MINE when listening to you. I have already invested as much as I can in Tesla. What do you think will happen to the Market and the shares when the semitrailer and the Cybertruck are coming for sale?
Dave my friend this was beautifully worded
Dave -
What's stopping other EV manufactures from using Tesla charging stations? What's stopping other EV manufactures from using Tesla's "skateboard?" DOA is far from reality if I know my Musk.
Makes sense, tesla is taking the Apple Steve jobs approach to providing end to end customers experience. There is no disconnect anywhere in product ownership.
You can't seriously mean that Tesla beats ICE in every aspect other than range. For instance handling. The traditional premium brands such as BMW, Porsche not outclassed by Tesla in this regard at all. Are you sure you are as objective as you present you are? Or quality of build. Forget it.
I'm a Model 3 owner as well as Tesla fanboy. However, I have to say, its interior design is far from best for most people compared to other luxury sedans. Both the pros and cons of TeslaMoter is so obvious. Before it solves the range issue, I'm afraid by no means would it occupy the market of ICEs.