Wall Street Journal already reported that Trump want to establish a demilitarised zone, but without any american peacekeepers and with 20 years moratorium for Ukraine's NATO membership
As a dane working in the airforce, you should be very worried at how insanely hollow and non-existant our capability is. We are as a nation, 100% incapable of the most basic of operations. No doubt Anders is a very smart guy however.
As an American living in Europe for 20+ years I believe Europe needs to reduce dependence on the US for defense. Spend more but employ more and stop worrying about what the next administration will / will not do.
As an American that's also lived in Europe, I kind of agree, but worry about politicians like Macron scratching their itch to play powers off each other, and ending up with regional rivalries and the centuries of wars that Europe has been known for, due to this kind of scheming. Better would be an alliance around the rim of Eurasia, of like value countries committed to mutual defense broadly, not just "Europe's problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems aren't Europe's", as Modi put it.
Yes, Europe has used the US as their security blanket and is not what NATO was designed for. Has Europe invested properly in their defenses in the last 30 years, the invasion would have never happened in the first place. This is what Trump had issues with and he is 100% right about it
There is no united Europe, we only have a lot of competing small countries. But there is a chance that if NATO fails a new European defense alliance can form.
Europes responsibility to defend our borders. EU Agenda 2030 will be as EU leader Claus Schwab claims a union based upon China's CCP. Schwab is a millionare and communist saying " You will own nothing.." 3000 political prisonors in UK. Censorship and a new class of extremly rich elite, the poor getting poorer. Norway
"the real question is not actually what Trump says he will do, but rather what Trump will do when those things that he says he will do don't work" very well said (4:55). He's unpredictable enough that no one really knows.
So he will not do what he said before elections passing like a liar? That doesn’t make any sense, I can guarantee you that he will force Ukraine to surrender by cutting all American aid.
Also he's 78 with a failing body and brain. And he's incredibly lazy. So most of this will come down to what bannon and Peter Thiel and Musk push for. Trump only cares about himself and isn't very sharp and thus easy to manipulate by cynical people around him.
Well his strategy here either will work, comedian listens and sits down and makes a deal, or doesn’t and it’s a worse result that’s slow and painful. (Their choice) Or you know it doesn’t work, Ru doesn’t listen and won’t sit down cause they believe they don’t need to. Either way the outcomes here are all positives for the U.S since the propping up and throwing tax money in a blackhole stops all together, the one constant with Trump is that’s happening regardless.
He isn’t unpredictable, he just hasn’t actually laid out any realistic policies or plans and the right wing media lets him get away with it. Not knowing is not the same as unpredictable. I would say he is entirely predictable
It always amuses me when US tax dollars comes up as an issue when anyone who has studied military aid to Ukraine is aware that not only has it not cost us a dime, but it’s actually profiting us + enabled critical progress and reform to our own arms industry + military procurement philosophy (we’re finally realizing OST tech can perform better than ridiculously overpriced platforms like Switchblade in many cases, using companies like Anduril to substitute for things like JASSM and Hellfire missiles for a tiny of fraction of the price).
@ That’s basically what we’ve been doing. There are also massive financial interests we’d be risking by allowing Russia to run roughshod over Ukraine, including the fact that they’d control so much of the world’s food supply (and already control nearly 100% of fertilizer) that they’d be able unleash famine and trigger refugee crises if we didn’t play ball.
@@harmless6813 Which is why is it so crictically important that European countries (and yes, this will include UK defence industries) learn to cope without US. US are generally making bleeding edge, extremely expensive weapons that works well for beating down dicatorships supplied with leftovers from the Soviet Union. US is all about projecting power across oceans, and that means extreme logistical challanges, and, again, very expensive military equipment. I think Europe, that really only need to focus on guarding the border to Russia, and the occasional UN peace keeping mission, can do better if we design out own systems based on our own needs.
THANK YOU. This is a thing that has been driving me nuts the last 24 hours or so. Everyone's making predictions about what Trump means for this or that. This misses the point of who Trump is - he's a chaos engine. He governs based on gut instinct and how he feels in the moment. He's not a planner. He's not an ideologue (as much as people want to portray him that way). He's a dude who makes it up as he goes along. He's also not a guy who is well informed on anything. How he handles Ukraine is going to depend heavily on how his relationship with Zelensky evolves. Relationships are HUGE for Trump. Zelensky needs to start flattering him. The foundation for why Trump loves Putin so much is that someone mistranslated Putin calling him 'colorful' with the word 'brilliant'. Trump LOVES being flattered. This guy doesn't think about situations in terms of pros and cons or risks and rewards or game theory boxes. It's about gut and relationships. He can be manipulated pretty easily if you understand who you're dealing with. DO NOT try to deal with him like a normal politician. He doesn't care about geopolitical balances or morality or philosophy. He doesn't understand any of that. The truth of it is, we DO NOT KNOW what's going to happen in part because Trump likely doesn't know either. He's likely got a fantasy in his head where he solves it all through force of personality, but it's probably a fantasy that is light on details.
Best take yet. Describes Trump to a tee. Fundamentally, I think Trump doesn't give a flying fig about Ukraine and assuredly doesn't want to send any help. I would bet good money Trump couldn't find Ukraine on a map. He just doesn't care.
Thank you for the level headed commentary. Much love to everyone from an environmental science graduate in the UK. Thank you to Anders for teaching about foreign/defence policy, it's been helpful in understanding a key driver in my environmental policy and energy modules.
America has been a big obstacle to freedom for a lot of countries. Countless coups and wars that destabilized and overthrew democratically elected governments. It's about time we stop sticking our noses into the rest of the world and putting our economic interests first.
Follow Peter Zeihan. I agree with his conclusions. USA is not declining. In fact it is becoming stronger and less reliant on free trade (now a net energy exporter). USA made a sweet deal for Europe BEFORE the end of WW2 known as Bretton Woods. USA agreed to let all of the allies dump their products in the US market and guaranteed protection of international shipping. All Europe had to do was build a military force capable of stopping the Soviet horde. When the Soviet Union collapsed, USA never re-evaluated that agreement and we ran on auto-pilot for decades. Now we are reaching the point where the average American wants to know why they don't have universal health care but have an expeditionary military capable of kicking anyone's butt around the world. Meanwhile, the Europeans bloated their welfare states and dismantled their military. A sizable portion of the USA electorate is fed up with the status quo and wants to know what's in it for them. I'm a Reagan Republican, did not vote for Trump this election, but I fully understand why a lot fellow citizens are disgusted with the path we are on. Europe needs to step up and get their act together. Period. It has nothing to do with whether you can depend on USA military. You have no serious military to speak of. You have little in the way of expeditionary forces; You couldn't repeat the Afghan exercise today even if you had the political will. USA can afford to abandon many of its so-called allies. Those allies can't afford USA abandoning them. They will need to start sucking up to whomever is running the United States. This is going to continue even after Trump leaves office. He's just the rampaging motormouth with no filter we have today. Both parties are turning populist and isolationist. No more free ride for Europe. It pains me to see how the Biden administration has drip-fed support to Ukraine. If I had been in power, the supplies would have been massive and overwhelming like Reagan would have done. Russia today is a two-bit state with an economy one-tenth our size. Only their nukes protect them today...and the weak-spined western leaders like Biden and Scholz. If Nikki Haley had won the Republican nomination, I'm sure we would have had a great president willing to stand up to Putin, minimizing Ukraine's losses. Slava Ukraini!
@@kodiak2fitty I agree with most of your points, I just want to state that Trump is the last President who would spend less on the military and more on universal healthcare. Quite the opposite. Nor do I believe that a Trump voter (or even a Republican voter in general) would want the US to have universal healthcare.
This video pretty much sums up, the problem with Trump in general. Not just now. But also in his first term. He is unpredictable, and sees everything, as a black and white transaction. Disregarding how most things are interconnected. He has said a lot of stuff, that he wants to do. But on pretty much every topic, he has simplified the problems, to such a degree. That his supporters believe, that there is an easy solution. And that he will just do that. E.g. "End the war in 24 hours". Even if he were to pressure Ukraine, into accepting all of Russias demands, without pushback. That would still take months, before there is a chance, that the fighting stops. The last time he promised to build, the "Big beautiful wall". Apparently that didn't happen, because Mexico didn't pay for it. And his grifter friends stole wall donations. He wanted to repeal and replace the 'Affordable Care Act'. It wasn't completely dismantled. He didn't even try. And he still doesn't have a Healthcare plan, 8 years later, just "the concept of a plan". In reality, on most topics, he is clueless. Even more so then most politicians, before taking office, and looking at 'the books'. His statements have been sufficiently vague, to allow voters to imagine, that what he means, is what they hope for. His policy decisions will depend on, who he taps for his administration. And will be adjusted along the way, as initial effects start showing. The last time. He had a bigger turnover, in his administration, then any president in recent times. To be clear, though not American, I'm terrified in general. Because we know the kind of people, who will be in his administration. We just have no way of knowing, just yet. Which of all the bad things, they will focus on, or how exactly they will do it, and to which extent. Only two thing is clear, at the moment. He and the Republican party has more power, to do what they want this time. And for once, they have the mandate of the people. Meaning, for better or worse, his presidency will not be, a carbon copy of his first one. And they have a VP, that will carryon the (project 2025) torch, should he not succeed. In extending his presidency, beyond the 2 term limit.
Thank you for being a constant voice of reason during this awful war of aggression that Putin has visited on a peaceful independent country. Ukraine should inspire us all to help more - they are fighting like lions.
I know. I felt exactly the same about the American wars of agression based on lies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon, and the illegal bombings of a "Sovereign" country. The word the west loves so damn much, but never seem to practice them selves. Did you feel the same way about those wars?
@@zi0 She did not feel the same about those wars Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon, and the illegal bombings of a "Sovereign" country. She imagines she has shared values with Ukrainians because they are white.
@@zi0 Only Ukraine isn't Saddam's Iraq, or the taliban, or ISIS, or ethnic cleansing Serb nationalists. And Russia isn't fighting to remove a murderous warmongering dictator. It's fighting for a murderous warmongering dictator.
@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 You seem to forget all those wars were based on lies. This is no exception. The historical rule is that American wars are based on lies, the Spanish did nothing to blow up the battleship man that was an accident. The Lusitania was not a peaceful liner. It was a military cargo ship with human shields. The golf Tonkin incident never happened. The testimony of Nayirah, the 15 year old Kuwaiti girl was a complete fabrication. There were no weapons of mass destr in Iraq. American wars aren’t righteous crusades they are tapestries of lies designed to advance the interests of American elites. Do yourself and the world a favor and stop being a wide-eyed believer.
People like Anders make me confident that we have capable brains in our military. His videos are "must watch" to me too. Sadly I didn't find his channel until Ukraine's Kherson offensive two years ago. I wish I'd watched it back in 2021, then much more would've been clear to me in early 2022. Anders turned out to be very accurate in his predictions.
It’s also possible Trump gets so offended when Putin says “No” to Trump’s “amazing, ridiculously generous, brilliant deal” that he turns around and actually escalates US involvement in the conflict. It feels just as plausible as about any other scenario at this point. Thanks Anders.
I think this is exactly what will end up happening. Trump will call Putin with the notion of a demilitarized zone and a take it or leave it mentality, and his ego wont be able to handle being stonewalled by Putin on one hand and Zelensky on the other, so he will double down and come out proclaiming some grand gesture favoring one way or the other, like some hardliner
Vaguely apropos.... Recently (November 2024) A Professor with a grant and presumably time on his hands has established that monkeys + typewriters (or similar) are never likely to repeat the words of Shakespeare before the end of the Universe. Indeed the likelihood of them even writing the word BANANA is infinitesimal small. Handy nugget there for your next dinner party!!!
The most reliable constant is probably that Trump acts in favor of Trump. Always. That's why I like Professor Gerdes' approach: the task at hand is to find and establish a narrative where Trump sees a big boost (or avoidance of a loss) for himself in Ukraine winning. He also gives an example: "Donald, do you really want to be the first US president losing against russia?"
Amusing to suggest academic condemnation means diddly squat to Trump, his voters, or backers like Musk. Trump can give Ukraine to Russia in its entirety and simply declare victory. I promise you Americans will buy that fully. Just so long as there is still pizza beer and football.
Unfortunately, Russia doesn't have a bad reputation among conservatives anymore so saying Ukraine was giving to Russia isn't a big deal to them. Putin has successfully advertised Russia as a "conservative anti-LGBT haven" and they suck it right up even though it's a corrupt authoritarian dictatorship and an enemy
Dump only cares about money. He doesn't care about the American people and doesn't care about Ukraine retaining its territory and independence. If Putin covertly offered him first dibs on choice development sites for luxury resorts and golf courses around the Black Sea he would be up for that and he would do as Putin's bidding.
Well it's not like Biden's plan has been good either. Trickling weapons is doing nothing but dragging this mess out and costing lives. Trump sucks, but his plan makes more sense by the day
"support for Trump in Europe" is the height of irrelevant self-regard. Next you'll say something irrelevant like you have the lowest level of support for putin....and Mao.
The US has more in common with Europe than against, the US should decide it's President regardless of what other countries think, I hope Ukraine is supported by Europe primarily and the US secondarily, otherwise Europe will have bigger problems from the East, that is where Europe should direct its attention to, it should have tried harder sooner!?!
With most politicians, if they say something, you hold them to account. With Trump, you accept that whatever he has said could well have nothing to do with what he eventually decides!
Oh? did anyone hold Obama to account over all the promises he made? He even had the gall to make the same promises during his re-election as if he didn't have four years to keep them. Nobody cared. Everyone cheered, people voted for him once again. There is no system in our government to hold people to account regarding their promises. At best, you expect them to keep one or two of their big promises or at least make efforts towards them during their first term while ignoring most of the rest. Trump is no different. As for the war in Ukraine, I think my fellow conservatives have lost the plot here. I don't know how aiding Ukraine became a bad thing. I hope that he will not stop providing aid to them, because we get to degrade Russia without spending American lives, and that can only be a good thing for American interests around the world. So many people on the right seem to be losing their mind over money being spent on stuff that doesn't benefit us, but we already do that on a massive scale, and Ukraine is just a drop in the bucket.
He has 24 hours, to the second after he takes his oath of office, to resolve the war. Otherwise, to paraphrase the president-elect, he will be "The Greatest Liar of All Time". If you study him carefully, he is a sales associate who likes to make exaggerated claims. The greatest this, the best that. When he called President Zelenskyy the "greatest salesman of all time" that is projection of self, a compliment, in Trump-speak.
As a American I'm very sorry. I wish people in my country who call themselves patriots would actuly stand up for democracy and freedom but hate and ignorance have taken us over.
@@carlpolen7437 You think Trump, the man who's called for discarding the Constitution, wants to be a dictator "on day one", who wants people who don't suck up to him imprisoned, accuses dissenters of treason, et al. That's the man you think is standing up for democracy and freedom? Are you being stupid on purpose?
You never stood for those things mate. It s a bed night story on how to justify military expansion for the masses. In some sense similar as putin is sellin this to russians as some defense war.
As an American I can say that the Trump supporters really see Ukraine as an insignificant issue. Their main issue is the immediate world around them, they are real isolationists. Sort of like we were in the 1930’s. It’s a shame but there is nothing I can do to change that.
It is indeed sad, but OTOH I always get a kick out of somebody nasty getting what they want and then discovering that the situation is now much worse than before. They might have elected Trump to fix their economy but that's like getting the fox to look after your remaining chickens. The results will delightful for any of us not living in the US.
You can understand the worldview though. In essence this is the third time we've bailed out Europe with force of arms in the last 150 years. It's about time they carried themselves. I don't want to see Ukraine thrown over the side to look after ourselves but that's a likely scenario. European arrogance and ingratitude only makes that option easier to carry through.
@@SVSky You have view that is self absolving. It was the US that pushed NATO expansion. Merkel and Sarkozy warned against inducting Ukraine, fearing to would lead to war - but Bush twisted their hand. It was the US that financed the 2014 coup in Ukraine that brought neo Nazi, anti Russian nationalists into power. From that day on war was inevitable. You have not bailed out anyone, you created the Ukrainian problem with the 2014 coup - and you are going to walk away. This is after saying you will support Ukraine for however long it takes, after refusing to reply to Putin's request to guarantee Russia's security, and after scuttling the peace agreement reached by Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. The US incited the war, you dragged Europe into it, you blocked the peace agreement in Turkey, and now that you are defeated, you say Ukraine is Europe's problem, we are sick and tired of your wars! Shameless fellow. Europe and Ukraine are at fault no doubt - for consenting to be US vassals. They deserve what they are getting. But don't put on airs of innocence. Get it, scumbag ?
And you Dems didn’t give 2 shits about Ukraine until it became an issue in Congress. I have followed many sites for a long time. You people were not there.
@@SVSky Elephant in the room. Even smaller European nations like Sweden are capable of building nukes (The Brits and French have had them for decades). Next thing will be countries all over the world following suit and building nukes
Hi Anders - in a scenario where Trump completely cuts aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine buckles under Russian pressure; Do you believe certain European countries might step in directly to defend Ukraine, such as Poland, Romania, or even France?
It is possible. Poland probably. France has a very populist population and rule, so no. Also what would be the outcomes? All just to push Russians from the 3 regions? Not worth the effort, and probably they can't without the US.
If Trump is onboard with helping out Ukraine, as long as Europe pays for it, then I'm all for it. Frankly it's embarrassing that we're so dependent on the Americans for our security.
We have not felt a threat in a long time and have been sleeping on it. I am not a fan of Trump but one thing he was good at was to make the European countries aware of the fact that we are weak and that a lot of us did not meet the 2% requirement even though we have been in the alliance for over half a century which is also very, very embarrasing. See what happened, we got our shit more together and now he is going to put more pressure on us again to really get our shit even more together. One of the few good things he achieved i feel like. Not to mention we are more people combined in the Europe part of the alliance than the US which does not really make it any less embarrasing.
of all help giving to ukr , the us have giving 43 % Denmark 6% ,,population 5,977,412and =so 1,0038% per million Netherland also 6 % has given 6% ,,population 18,228,742=0,3292% per million the us has 345,426,571 citizens so 0,1245% per million ,, that makes the us help very SMALL per citizen Denmark has giving 8.o637 times as much as the US per citizen ,,so please Trump, give at least 8 times more before you complain ?
You did it to yourselves. You lied to your children about the possibility of war. Paid for nice trains, medical care, and other social programs instead of maintaining your walls and your spears. Maybe if you had be honest with yourselves about the threats to the East and to the South you wouldn't be in this position. Instead you were happy to let your younger Brother from across the pond handle nearly everything.
Agreed. Trump will do anything that makes him look good. He is as shallow and as superficial as that. Lining his pockets in the process is alway a bonus for him.
@@TheisKrarupHansen He/she is probably not aware that Swedes are always complaining about what Danes do and how stupid we are, though they decide to do the same some time later. Closing the border to illegally intruding refugees: a couple of weeks later. Joining the EU: some decades later. Joining NATO: 75 years later.
The acquisition of the F-35 could end up being a huge headache for a lot of European countries, and probably also why Spain has opted out of it in favor of the Eurofighter.
Yeap, am thinking the same since the last Trump administration. You just can't trust the USA anymore as a trusted partner. I wish the country I live in had not bought the F-35s, but that decision was made by politicians, and they are not the brightest 😐
@@claus-not-santa I'm no expert, but I think the decision given the political climate in the USA was wrong. It's less about who made the decision, more about that I think the decision was wrong.
As an American I'm bothered so much that American elections affect so much of the world but Americans only care about the price of food gas and housing when it comes to elections.
It's especially dumb since Trump won't be able to fix those anyways. The stock market is already pricing in higher inflation under Trump ironically enough
We should all become a state in the USA. This would give us electoral votes. I am for it. Also it is not all americans, that can affect the world so much, but 5 states that can give a big fuck you to the world.
So many great questions here. Being honest about what we know and do not know leads so many good questions and reasoned analysis which would be obscured if ideology was considered. Thank you!
I think Trump knowing why he wants something is already too much of an assumption. He typically just says something on a whim and then doubles down on it.
Trump's Jet has met with the Russia's diplomatic plane like 8 times this year alone. Trump sees Russians more than his wife (not counting mistresses, because he's that... Christian).
"Biden administration's policy on Ukraaine where they've been providing consistent military assistance on an onsgoing basis so that Ukraine can continue to fight" is a painfully precise and honest description.
Yes, but in an incremental way. A way Russia has been able to respond to. Expect Trump to do what nobody expected - to go hard out in support for Ukraine. So hard that Russia gives up.
@@ovekkjlstad7703If he does I will be the first to praise him. But there's no indication of that and given Trump's infatuation with Putin I won't hold my breath.
yes he want money, but for himself and not for the country. All serious economists agree that his plans cause a recession. High tarifs increase prices and higher inflation. It means intrestrates must go up and this causes shrinking investments.
Remember: in 2016, Trump said he had a plan to replace Obama Care and that he would replace it. He ran hard on this. He never had a plan. He never repealed Obama Care. So, we really have no idea what Trump will do.
The EU is giving Ukraine 50 Billion Dollars this Year from Seized Russian Profits . The EU has approximely 288 Billion remaining of Russian Seized Assets . The Profits will continue to go to Ukraine and at some point i beleive the Rest will also go to Ukraine
"go to Ukraine" means they will go to American and European defense industries. Ukraine is a place where those products are used (spent). It's not like Ukrainian people will actually see any of that money.
I suspect vanity is major reason for Trump when he say he will end the war. He wants to be the guy that just fixes anything. Or at least he wants to appear like he can fix anything.
I completely agree, it makes little sense for the EU to import military equipment instead of producing its own. Even if we buy something from the US corporations, it should only be if it’s produced in the EU and full technology control is transferred. Too bad Germany manages to ruin all common EU military projects when they negotiate something and walk back their purchases while expecting increases in workshare. I doubt something will happen before the national armies will be merged into a federal EU army. The EU should have a shared foreign policy as well because military contracts are often driven by such considerations.
We already have more advanced planes than Russia (the SU-57 being vaporware). We don't need the F-35, we can have a bunch of Gripens for the same money.
The way you frame Biden escalation management makes it so cynical. But I partly believe that the best outcome for him is an Ukraine and Russia that are both weak enough to not cause problems but still be stable. This approach just leads to maximum amount of suffering
Yes, and it's not Trump's style which is why he's going to get this over with one way or the other. Personally, I believe that he will not be acting in Russia's interests. Even a compromise where say Russia leaves the Donbas and keeps Crimea would have every chance of toppling Putin. After which Ukraine might be able to get it back. Would that be ok if it ended bloodshed and destruction or nah?
The US of A sold its soul many yeas ago. A chunk disapeared under reagan when he removed the fairness doctrine, allowing the press to be just as partisan as they like, and nowadays straight lie, to get more viewers aka more money. So they get the news from channels they agree with, or from SoMe. USA has always been extreme capitalistic, and that paired with extreme religion has consequenses: So very very very many DUMB americans! What is the american dream other than obtaining materialistic things? The praised freedom ideal is just anarchy if there is no regulation or rules anywere. But seems that is what they want!
@@nichevo1 For us outside the US it certainly now is a breaking point about what we think about the Americans now. I nice minority doesn't make the soul of a country. The soul is what the majority is and who they elect as their leader.
In the discussion of plans put forward by "Trump's people", you forgot to mention the plan put out by his actual foreign policy people, which called for making demands on Putin (of the kind that Putin hasn't found anywhere near acceptable so far), and then MASSIVELY INCREASING aid if Putin continues to stonewall. I mean, if we're talking about the breadth of possibilities, that's certainly in there, and its where my hope lies, atm.
Who are these people? What is the document we should read? As far as I know Trump has no formal policy on the war in Ukraine. You sound like another gullible supporter. P T Barnum had a saying about people like you.
If this were true, it could be a good route, possibly the only good route. But like the others, I thought that Trump's national security folk had stopped backing him, and he them, amidst lots of claims of fascism. The new proposed staffers seem to be the wide eyed folk that Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 is recruiting...no experience necessary, only mega MAGA enthusiasm. And only have conversations in cafeteria, where they won't be recorded or minuted, once appointed. Anything concrete to point to differently?
First of all - EU have given more than USA. Secondly, USA gave billions of pentagon dollars, not actual dollars. So EU could replace all of US aid but we may have to buy weapons and munitions from South Korea.
I suspect forcing Europe to pay for the war will be Trumps goal - it would enable the US to keep supplying Ukraine, but then the onus will be on Europe - not the US in determining the outcome. This would also give a huge boost to funding for Ukraine and Europe's home-grown weapons manufacturing, and will eventually see a decrease in spending on US weapons.
@@nichevo1 I hope you are aware that the current situation with lack of European production capacity is by US design? The US administrations have always tried to make Europe completely dependent on the US arms industry, their only complaint have been that we just aren't spending enough on US arms and in some categories dare to produce our own weapons.
and it would show that the promise the us gave to protect ukr, after Clinton made ukr give russia 4500 nukes, was a lie ,and for ever prove the us can not be trusted,, that could end up costly for the us
Technicians note, if you want the mic off to one side, you might try an omni mic. The signal is dropping in and out as you move out of its pickup area. PS, big fan :)
How i want this to go... EU tells Orban to sit and spin. South Korea backfills European artillery. Within the next year or two Europe needs to get super serious about its own defense. Partner with Poland. Putin just said that his economy is collapsing and the embargos are working... Ukraine can get this over the goal line without the US. I am so sorry my country has failed Europe. 😢
Northen Europe plus Baltics incl Poland n Ukraine, ev UK work on this more jointly, to be less dependent on US. Less countries= faster process. Geography matters, we have more to loose
One think certan about Trump is that more often than not he did the exact opposite of what people were expecting of him. If Zelensky plays it well and convinces Trump that a US retire from Ukraine may as well be seen as the NATo retreat from Afghanistan, he can still convince Trump to continue send weapons.
It's quite possible. Trump is not an idiot, and nothing he's done shows him to be a Putin Puppet. Give him a good reason to keep supporting Ukraine, such as Europe picking up more of the bill, and he probably won't refuse.
Anders, Thank you for the clear and brief analysis of the type that is usually presented behind closed doors at think tanks or with public policy announcements full of endless caveats,jargon or vague diplospeak. Your analyses are always accessible to the somewhat informed layman.👍
Thanks Anders. The problem is that Trump is unpredictable and he lives in a different matrix, detached from our reality, and that is precisely what poses a great danger, especially for us in Europe. I don't have much hope that anything positive will come of this, rather the opposite, and if it does, it could be devastating for all of us Europeans. Trump is a psycho and also on the verge of stupidity.
Watch him talk on Joe Rogan and Lex Friedman. He has a specific plan on what to do. He has a personal for his audience by saying wild shit but he is not stupid
Long term it will benefit European weapons industri if US leaves NATO. Currently most NATO countries buy expensive weapons from USA, but without USA in NATO why would they not buy local produced or from a EU neighbor or even just any European country?
![30 ชั่วโมงคนเดียว บนรถไฟชั้น 3 โซเวียต [Around The World Ep. 2]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/MlE9boAVqDA/mqdefault.jpg)
As a dane, I am very proud we have people of your caliber in our defense
Wall Street Journal already reported that Trump want to establish a demilitarised zone, but without any american peacekeepers and with 20 years moratorium for Ukraine's NATO membership
Good job Denmark. I don t think we have a guy so smart in the Romanian defense.
And rightly so.
As a half Swede, I agree (and hi to our Danish friends 🇸🇪🇩🇰)
As a dane working in the airforce, you should be very worried at how insanely hollow and non-existant our capability is.
We are as a nation, 100% incapable of the most basic of operations.
No doubt Anders is a very smart guy however.
As an American living in Europe for 20+ years I believe Europe needs to reduce dependence on the US for defense. Spend more but employ more and stop worrying about what the next administration will / will not do.
Agree, that's my view to. Europe's economy is about the same size as China or US. It can afford this and needs to plan accordingly.
As an American that's also lived in Europe, I kind of agree, but worry about politicians like Macron scratching their itch to play powers off each other, and ending up with regional rivalries and the centuries of wars that Europe has been known for, due to this kind of scheming.
Better would be an alliance around the rim of Eurasia, of like value countries committed to mutual defense broadly, not just "Europe's problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems aren't Europe's", as Modi put it.
Yes, Europe has used the US as their security blanket and is not what NATO was designed for. Has Europe invested properly in their defenses in the last 30 years, the invasion would have never happened in the first place. This is what Trump had issues with and he is 100% right about it
There is no united Europe, we only have a lot of competing small countries. But there is a chance that if NATO fails a new European defense alliance can form.
Europes responsibility to defend our borders. EU Agenda 2030 will be as EU leader Claus Schwab claims a union based upon China's CCP. Schwab is a millionare and communist saying " You will own nothing.." 3000 political prisonors in UK. Censorship and a new class of extremly rich elite, the poor getting poorer. Norway
"the real question is not actually what Trump says he will do, but rather what Trump will do when those things that he says he will do don't work" very well said (4:55). He's unpredictable enough that no one really knows.
So he will not do what he said before elections passing like a liar? That doesn’t make any sense, I can guarantee you that he will force Ukraine to surrender by cutting all American aid.
Also he's 78 with a failing body and brain. And he's incredibly lazy. So most of this will come down to what bannon and Peter Thiel and Musk push for. Trump only cares about himself and isn't very sharp and thus easy to manipulate by cynical people around him.
His promises will be forgotten.
Well his strategy here either will work, comedian listens and sits down and makes a deal, or doesn’t and it’s a worse result that’s slow and painful. (Their choice) Or you know it doesn’t work, Ru doesn’t listen and won’t sit down cause they believe they don’t need to. Either way the outcomes here are all positives for the U.S since the propping up and throwing tax money in a blackhole stops all together, the one constant with Trump is that’s happening regardless.
He isn’t unpredictable, he just hasn’t actually laid out any realistic policies or plans and the right wing media lets him get away with it. Not knowing is not the same as unpredictable.
I would say he is entirely predictable
This is what I wish we had more of: someone illuminating a murky topic without spinning it to one advantage or another.
Greetings to our neighbors from Germany 🇩🇪🇩🇰
take responsibility after all those trillions for buying russian gas✌️
@@Heinakuhi, can‘t say you are totally wrong.
True. They can't fix yesterday, but start today.
@@Heinakuhi Strengthen the economy and the defence. Strenghten the country inside and outside. And than you can be a partner to others.
As a half Swede, I really appreciate your informative videos 🇸🇪🇩🇰
Congrats for the 200K!! WELL earned💪
Brilliant! This is the type of comment that is missing in the mainstream media.
Thank you, I was waiting for your take on this.
Lucid and circumspect as always. Thanks, Anders, so good to see you!
Thank you and have a great week.
It always amuses me when US tax dollars comes up as an issue when anyone who has studied military aid to Ukraine is aware that not only has it not cost us a dime, but it’s actually profiting us + enabled critical progress and reform to our own arms industry + military procurement philosophy (we’re finally realizing OST tech can perform better than ridiculously overpriced platforms like Switchblade in many cases, using companies like Anduril to substitute for things like JASSM and Hellfire missiles for a tiny of fraction of the price).
Convince a red hat wearer of that. Math hurt brain.
Yeah, but having someone else pay for it would be even better! 😛
@ That’s basically what we’ve been doing. There are also massive financial interests we’d be risking by allowing Russia to run roughshod over Ukraine, including the fact that they’d control so much of the world’s food supply (and already control nearly 100% of fertilizer) that they’d be able unleash famine and trigger refugee crises if we didn’t play ball.
@@harmless6813 Which is why is it so crictically important that European countries (and yes, this will include UK defence industries) learn to cope without US.
US are generally making bleeding edge, extremely expensive weapons that works well for beating down dicatorships supplied with leftovers from the Soviet Union.
US is all about projecting power across oceans, and that means extreme logistical challanges, and, again, very expensive military equipment.
I think Europe, that really only need to focus on guarding the border to Russia, and the occasional UN peace keeping mission, can do better if we design out own systems based on our own needs.
Ukraine is a few % of USA's military budget.
THANK YOU. This is a thing that has been driving me nuts the last 24 hours or so. Everyone's making predictions about what Trump means for this or that. This misses the point of who Trump is - he's a chaos engine. He governs based on gut instinct and how he feels in the moment. He's not a planner. He's not an ideologue (as much as people want to portray him that way). He's a dude who makes it up as he goes along. He's also not a guy who is well informed on anything.
How he handles Ukraine is going to depend heavily on how his relationship with Zelensky evolves. Relationships are HUGE for Trump. Zelensky needs to start flattering him. The foundation for why Trump loves Putin so much is that someone mistranslated Putin calling him 'colorful' with the word 'brilliant'. Trump LOVES being flattered. This guy doesn't think about situations in terms of pros and cons or risks and rewards or game theory boxes. It's about gut and relationships. He can be manipulated pretty easily if you understand who you're dealing with.
DO NOT try to deal with him like a normal politician. He doesn't care about geopolitical balances or morality or philosophy. He doesn't understand any of that. The truth of it is, we DO NOT KNOW what's going to happen in part because Trump likely doesn't know either. He's likely got a fantasy in his head where he solves it all through force of personality, but it's probably a fantasy that is light on details.
Zelenskyy is already licking his boots, Zelenskyy is smart.
Excellent analysis of Trump. And why his next term is so terrifying.
Great analysis
Best take yet. Describes Trump to a tee. Fundamentally, I think Trump doesn't give a flying fig about Ukraine and assuredly doesn't want to send any help. I would bet good money Trump couldn't find Ukraine on a map. He just doesn't care.
bam! spot on... sadly
Thank you for the level headed commentary.
Much love to everyone from an environmental science graduate in the UK.
Thank you to Anders for teaching about foreign/defence policy, it's been helpful in understanding a key driver in my environmental policy and energy modules.
As a fellow Brit, I agree
Thanks Anders, always appreciate your point of view!
Thank you for the update Anders 👍👍
Thank you so much, Mr Nielsen. It is always good to hear one of the few sober minds talk about security politics.
Watching the decline of the America is very depressing for the free world.
America has been a big obstacle to freedom for a lot of countries. Countless coups and wars that destabilized and overthrew democratically elected governments. It's about time we stop sticking our noses into the rest of the world and putting our economic interests first.
Follow Peter Zeihan. I agree with his conclusions. USA is not declining. In fact it is becoming stronger and less reliant on free trade (now a net energy exporter). USA made a sweet deal for Europe BEFORE the end of WW2 known as Bretton Woods. USA agreed to let all of the allies dump their products in the US market and guaranteed protection of international shipping. All Europe had to do was build a military force capable of stopping the Soviet horde.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, USA never re-evaluated that agreement and we ran on auto-pilot for decades. Now we are reaching the point where the average American wants to know why they don't have universal health care but have an expeditionary military capable of kicking anyone's butt around the world. Meanwhile, the Europeans bloated their welfare states and dismantled their military. A sizable portion of the USA electorate is fed up with the status quo and wants to know what's in it for them.
I'm a Reagan Republican, did not vote for Trump this election, but I fully understand why a lot fellow citizens are disgusted with the path we are on. Europe needs to step up and get their act together. Period. It has nothing to do with whether you can depend on USA military. You have no serious military to speak of. You have little in the way of expeditionary forces; You couldn't repeat the Afghan exercise today even if you had the political will.
USA can afford to abandon many of its so-called allies. Those allies can't afford USA abandoning them. They will need to start sucking up to whomever is running the United States. This is going to continue even after Trump leaves office. He's just the rampaging motormouth with no filter we have today. Both parties are turning populist and isolationist. No more free ride for Europe.
It pains me to see how the Biden administration has drip-fed support to Ukraine. If I had been in power, the supplies would have been massive and overwhelming like Reagan would have done. Russia today is a two-bit state with an economy one-tenth our size. Only their nukes protect them today...and the weak-spined western leaders like Biden and Scholz. If Nikki Haley had won the Republican nomination, I'm sure we would have had a great president willing to stand up to Putin, minimizing Ukraine's losses.
Slava Ukraini!
Why is the will of the American people seen as a decline. Those of us happy with this election see it as a return to better values.
@@kodiak2fitty I agree with most of your points, I just want to state that Trump is the last President who would spend less on the military and more on universal healthcare. Quite the opposite. Nor do I believe that a Trump voter (or even a Republican voter in general) would want the US to have universal healthcare.
Thank you as always! You’re one of the most trustworthy experts out there in my view
This video pretty much sums up, the problem with Trump in general.
Not just now. But also in his first term.
He is unpredictable, and sees everything, as a black and white transaction. Disregarding how most things are interconnected.
He has said a lot of stuff, that he wants to do. But on pretty much every topic, he has simplified the problems, to such a degree. That his supporters believe, that there is an easy solution. And that he will just do that.
E.g. "End the war in 24 hours".
Even if he were to pressure Ukraine, into accepting all of Russias demands, without pushback. That would still take months, before there is a chance, that the fighting stops.
The last time he promised to build, the "Big beautiful wall". Apparently that didn't happen, because Mexico didn't pay for it. And his grifter friends stole wall donations.
He wanted to repeal and replace the 'Affordable Care Act'. It wasn't completely dismantled. He didn't even try. And he still doesn't have a Healthcare plan, 8 years later, just "the concept of a plan".
In reality, on most topics, he is clueless. Even more so then most politicians, before taking office, and looking at 'the books'. His statements have been sufficiently vague, to allow voters to imagine, that what he means, is what they hope for.
His policy decisions will depend on, who he taps for his administration.
And will be adjusted along the way, as initial effects start showing.
The last time. He had a bigger turnover, in his administration, then any president in recent times.
To be clear, though not American, I'm terrified in general. Because we know the kind of people, who will be in his administration.
We just have no way of knowing, just yet. Which of all the bad things, they will focus on, or how exactly they will do it, and to which extent.
Only two thing is clear, at the moment.
He and the Republican party has more power, to do what they want this time. And for once, they have the mandate of the people.
Meaning, for better or worse, his presidency will not be, a carbon copy of his first one.
And they have a VP, that will carryon the (project 2025) torch, should he not succeed. In extending his presidency, beyond the 2 term limit.
Thanks Anders
Thank you for being a constant voice of reason during this awful war of aggression that Putin has visited on a peaceful independent country. Ukraine should inspire us all to help more - they are fighting like lions.
I know. I felt exactly the same about the American wars of agression based on lies in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon, and the illegal bombings of a "Sovereign" country. The word the west loves so damn much, but never seem to practice them selves. Did you feel the same way about those wars?
@@zi0 She did not feel the same about those wars Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Lebanon, and the illegal bombings of a "Sovereign" country. She imagines she has shared values with Ukrainians because they are white.
@@zi0 Only Ukraine isn't Saddam's Iraq, or the taliban, or ISIS, or ethnic cleansing Serb nationalists. And Russia isn't fighting to remove a murderous warmongering dictator. It's fighting for a murderous warmongering dictator.
@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 you are not ignorant,just plane dumb,talking (writing)about things you dont know....
@@proselytizingorthodoxpente8304 You seem to forget all those wars were based on lies. This is no exception. The historical rule is that American wars are based on lies, the Spanish did nothing to blow up the battleship man that was an accident. The Lusitania was not a peaceful liner. It was a military cargo ship with human shields. The golf Tonkin incident never happened. The testimony of Nayirah, the 15 year old Kuwaiti girl was a complete fabrication. There were no weapons of mass destr in Iraq.
American wars aren’t righteous crusades they are tapestries of lies designed to advance the interests of American elites.
Do yourself and the world a favor and stop being a wide-eyed believer.
Thanks, Anders. Being the breathe of fresh air on this is so calming.
Anders i consider your videos a "must watch" 🥰🤗🦄❤💙💛❤
People like Anders make me confident that we have capable brains in our military. His videos are "must watch" to me too. Sadly I didn't find his channel until Ukraine's Kherson offensive two years ago. I wish I'd watched it back in 2021, then much more would've been clear to me in early 2022. Anders turned out to be very accurate in his predictions.
It’s also possible Trump gets so offended when Putin says “No” to Trump’s “amazing, ridiculously generous, brilliant deal” that he turns around and actually escalates US involvement in the conflict. It feels just as plausible as about any other scenario at this point.
Thanks Anders.
Why would Putin say "no" to a settlement written by Putin?
I think this is exactly what will end up happening. Trump will call Putin with the notion of a demilitarized zone and a take it or leave it mentality, and his ego wont be able to handle being stonewalled by Putin on one hand and Zelensky on the other, so he will double down and come out proclaiming some grand gesture favoring one way or the other, like some hardliner
@@kurtwicklund8901lmao he wouldnt. Putin is very open to a deal.
@@tflking4916 that he will break at his convenience.
@@tflking4916 a deal on his terms
Escalation management is simple appeasement with extra words.
Congratulations on 200k , been around since you had like 40k 🤯
Same here, since maybe 10k or 17k. It's good to see how his channel has grown, and well deserved.
+1 now :)
He deserves 200M!
Been waiting for your analysis, thank you for your service!
Tak for analysen Anders, som altid nogle gode pointer.
Wanting specifics from Trump is like wanting an elephant to understand quantum theory.
My money is on the elephants before the Trumpers.
Or a donkey...
but elephants do understand quantum theory...
@@kurtwicklund8901 My money is on stupid left wing fanatics spouting platitudes and other assorted inanities...live it.
Vaguely apropos.... Recently (November 2024) A Professor with a grant and presumably time on his hands has established that monkeys + typewriters (or similar) are never likely to repeat the words of Shakespeare before the end of the Universe. Indeed the likelihood of them even writing the word BANANA is infinitesimal small. Handy nugget there for your next dinner party!!!
Thank you.
Thank you Anders for this profound, informed and balanced analysis
The most reliable constant is probably that Trump acts in favor of Trump. Always. That's why I like Professor Gerdes' approach: the task at hand is to find and establish a narrative where Trump sees a big boost (or avoidance of a loss) for himself in Ukraine winning. He also gives an example: "Donald, do you really want to be the first US president losing against russia?"
Amusing to suggest academic condemnation means diddly squat to Trump, his voters, or backers like Musk.
Trump can give Ukraine to Russia in its entirety and simply declare victory. I promise you Americans will buy that fully. Just so long as there is still pizza beer and football.
Unfortunately, Russia doesn't have a bad reputation among conservatives anymore so saying Ukraine was giving to Russia isn't a big deal to them. Putin has successfully advertised Russia as a "conservative anti-LGBT haven" and they suck it right up even though it's a corrupt authoritarian dictatorship and an enemy
He acts dumb, he is not dumb he is a russian asset. And be sure that they will package the Ukranian loss very nicely.
Dump only cares about money. He doesn't care about the American people and doesn't care about Ukraine retaining its territory and independence. If Putin covertly offered him first dibs on choice development sites for luxury resorts and golf courses around the Black Sea he would be up for that and he would do as Putin's bidding.
Hello from Denmark. I am proud to be a resident of this beautiful country, and I am glad it has the lowest level of support for Trump in Europe.
Well it's not like Biden's plan has been good either. Trickling weapons is doing nothing but dragging this mess out and costing lives. Trump sucks, but his plan makes more sense by the day
"support for Trump in Europe" is the height of irrelevant self-regard. Next you'll say something irrelevant like you have the lowest level of support for putin....and Mao.
The US has more in common with Europe than against, the US should decide it's President regardless of what other countries think, I hope Ukraine is supported by Europe primarily and the US secondarily, otherwise Europe will have bigger problems from the East, that is where Europe should direct its attention to, it should have tried harder sooner!?!
With most politicians, if they say something, you hold them to account. With Trump, you accept that whatever he has said could well have nothing to do with what he eventually decides!
Oh? did anyone hold Obama to account over all the promises he made? He even had the gall to make the same promises during his re-election as if he didn't have four years to keep them. Nobody cared. Everyone cheered, people voted for him once again. There is no system in our government to hold people to account regarding their promises. At best, you expect them to keep one or two of their big promises or at least make efforts towards them during their first term while ignoring most of the rest. Trump is no different.
As for the war in Ukraine, I think my fellow conservatives have lost the plot here. I don't know how aiding Ukraine became a bad thing. I hope that he will not stop providing aid to them, because we get to degrade Russia without spending American lives, and that can only be a good thing for American interests around the world. So many people on the right seem to be losing their mind over money being spent on stuff that doesn't benefit us, but we already do that on a massive scale, and Ukraine is just a drop in the bucket.
He has 24 hours, to the second after he takes his oath of office, to resolve the war. Otherwise, to paraphrase the president-elect, he will be "The Greatest Liar of All Time".
If you study him carefully, he is a sales associate who likes to make exaggerated claims. The greatest this, the best that. When he called President Zelenskyy the "greatest salesman of all time" that is projection of self, a compliment, in Trump-speak.
Most people don't hold them to account, most people shrug and think next election might be better if they're lucky.
What are you even talking about? When did the word accountable and politician go in the same sentence?
@@dinmavric5504You just used them in the same sentence.
As a American I'm very sorry. I wish people in my country who call themselves patriots would actuly stand up for democracy and freedom but hate and ignorance have taken us over.
We did. Even won the popular vote. Sorry if you have to throw a tantrum about it.
@@carlpolen7437 You think Trump, the man who's called for discarding the Constitution, wants to be a dictator "on day one", who wants people who don't suck up to him imprisoned, accuses dissenters of treason, et al.
That's the man you think is standing up for democracy and freedom? Are you being stupid on purpose?
It's very disturbing. Far-right populist are on the rise here in Europe as well.
You never stood for those things mate. It s a bed night story on how to justify military expansion for the masses. In some sense similar as putin is sellin this to russians as some defense war.
When you ignore the needs of your country men, that is what you get.
Thank you yet again Anders. Always the level head!
Great and condensed analysis as usual, thanks!
Thank you for your great analysis 👍 Its great to hear some wise and informed thoughts following the disappointing news from the US.
Straight-forward, clear analysis. Thank you again.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇩🇰 🇺🇦
Er okay pal
Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!
er okay thanks
As an American I can say that the Trump supporters really see Ukraine as an insignificant issue. Their main issue is the immediate world around them, they are real isolationists. Sort of like we were in the 1930’s. It’s a shame but there is nothing I can do to change that.
It is indeed sad, but OTOH I always get a kick out of somebody nasty getting what they want and then discovering that the situation is now much worse than before. They might have elected Trump to fix their economy but that's like getting the fox to look after your remaining chickens. The results will delightful for any of us not living in the US.
You can understand the worldview though. In essence this is the third time we've bailed out Europe with force of arms in the last 150 years. It's about time they carried themselves. I don't want to see Ukraine thrown over the side to look after ourselves but that's a likely scenario. European arrogance and ingratitude only makes that option easier to carry through.
@@SVSky You have view that is self absolving. It was the US that pushed NATO expansion. Merkel and Sarkozy warned against inducting Ukraine, fearing to would lead to war - but Bush twisted their hand. It was the US that financed the 2014 coup in Ukraine that brought neo Nazi, anti Russian nationalists into power. From that day on war was inevitable.
You have not bailed out anyone, you created the Ukrainian problem with the 2014 coup - and you are going to walk away. This is after saying you will support Ukraine for however long it takes, after refusing to reply to Putin's request to guarantee Russia's security, and after scuttling the peace agreement reached by Ukraine and Russia in Turkey. The US incited the war, you dragged Europe into it, you blocked the peace agreement in Turkey, and now that you are defeated, you say Ukraine is Europe's problem, we are sick and tired of your wars! Shameless fellow.
Europe and Ukraine are at fault no doubt - for consenting to be US vassals. They deserve what they are getting. But don't put on airs of innocence. Get it, scumbag ?
And you Dems didn’t give 2 shits about Ukraine until it became an issue in Congress. I have followed many sites for a long time. You people were not there.
@@SVSky Elephant in the room. Even smaller European nations like Sweden are capable of building nukes (The Brits and French have had them for decades). Next thing will be countries all over the world following suit and building nukes
Hi Anders - in a scenario where Trump completely cuts aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine buckles under Russian pressure; Do you believe certain European countries might step in directly to defend Ukraine, such as Poland, Romania, or even France?
It is possible. Poland probably. France has a very populist population and rule, so no. Also what would be the outcomes? All just to push Russians from the 3 regions? Not worth the effort, and probably they can't without the US.
I think Poland and the Baltic countries might because they know what will happen if Ukraine falls.
I hope so. Followed, in the long term, by pivoting to South Korea and European countries for weapons and ammunition.
Without the USAF and the US nuclear umbrella? Nit bloody likely.
@@kurtwicklund8901 France and England have nuclear weapons
Excellent introduction. Thank You Anders!!!
If Trump is onboard with helping out Ukraine, as long as Europe pays for it, then I'm all for it. Frankly it's embarrassing that we're so dependent on the Americans for our security.
Agreed, its becoming very shameful that we are so weak.
We have not felt a threat in a long time and have been sleeping on it.
I am not a fan of Trump but one thing he was good at was to make the European countries aware of the fact that we are weak and that a lot of us did not meet the 2% requirement even though we have been in the alliance for over half a century which is also very, very embarrasing.
See what happened, we got our shit more together and now he is going to put more pressure on us again to really get our shit even more together.
One of the few good things he achieved i feel like.
Not to mention we are more people combined in the Europe part of the alliance than the US which does not really make it any less embarrasing.
That is true, but it’s still a disgrace to see the USA’s acts considering how far we bent over backwards to please them in every way.
of all help giving to ukr , the us have giving 43 % Denmark 6% ,,population 5,977,412and =so 1,0038% per million Netherland also 6 % has given 6% ,,population 18,228,742=0,3292% per million the us has 345,426,571 citizens so 0,1245% per million ,, that makes the us help very SMALL per citizen Denmark has giving 8.o637 times as much as the US per citizen ,,so please Trump, give at least 8 times more before you complain ?
You did it to yourselves. You lied to your children about the possibility of war. Paid for nice trains, medical care, and other social programs instead of maintaining your walls and your spears. Maybe if you had be honest with yourselves about the threats to the East and to the South you wouldn't be in this position. Instead you were happy to let your younger Brother from across the pond handle nearly everything.
The only channel I hit Like before watching the video!
Interesting thoughts you are correct he has no plan. He will do what ever is the best for him and his friends.
One friend is named Vladimir Putin.
He has the concept of a plan! /s
The way he screwed over the Afghan government does not bode well for Ukraine.
@@kurtwicklund8901hence why Ukraine got Javelins in 2018.
BlueMAGA is no different from MAGA in terms of intellect
Agreed. Trump will do anything that makes him look good. He is as shallow and as superficial as that. Lining his pockets in the process is alway a bonus for him.
Slava Ukraini from Iceland 💥
Venlig hilsen til Anders. Tusind tak.
Thank you
as a 16th Swede I really appreciate your informative videos
Huh? How your Swedish percentage relevant? You are aware that Anders is Danish, right? We are brother countries but decidedly NOT the same.
@@TheisKrarupHansen He/she is probably not aware that Swedes are always complaining about what Danes do and how stupid we are, though they decide to do the same some time later.
Closing the border to illegally intruding refugees: a couple of weeks later. Joining the EU: some decades later. Joining NATO: 75 years later.
The acquisition of the F-35 could end up being a huge headache for a lot of European countries, and probably also why Spain has opted out of it in favor of the Eurofighter.
It was a mistake.
Shouldn't buy US equipment at all.
Yeap, am thinking the same since the last Trump administration. You just can't trust the USA anymore as a trusted partner. I wish the country I live in had not bought the F-35s, but that decision was made by politicians, and they are not the brightest 😐
the f-35 is buggy and incomplete. anyone that buys them should be expected to take on a role as a beta tester for an unfinished product.
@@AttlanttizzWho then should have taken decision what to buy based on which facts??
@@claus-not-santa I'm no expert, but I think the decision given the political climate in the USA was wrong. It's less about who made the decision, more about that I think the decision was wrong.
As an American I'm bothered so much that American elections affect so much of the world but Americans only care about the price of food gas and housing when it comes to elections.
That's what happens when we're the premier superpower in the world. This has been the case for many empires throughout history.
It's especially dumb since Trump won't be able to fix those anyways. The stock market is already pricing in higher inflation under Trump ironically enough
We should all become a state in the USA. This would give us electoral votes. I am for it. Also it is not all americans, that can affect the world so much, but 5 states that can give a big fuck you to the world.
It's about the economy
so you say you can live with no roof over your head and no food and not be able to drive to work (assuming you have to )
So many great questions here. Being honest about what we know and do not know leads so many good questions and reasoned analysis which would be obscured if ideology was considered. Thank you!
I think Trump knowing why he wants something is already too much of an assumption.
He typically just says something on a whim and then doubles down on it.
Trump's Jet has met with the Russia's diplomatic plane like 8 times this year alone.
Trump sees Russians more than his wife (not counting mistresses, because he's that... Christian).
"Biden administration's policy on Ukraaine where they've been providing consistent military assistance on an onsgoing basis so that Ukraine can continue to fight" is a painfully precise and honest description.
Yes, but in an incremental way. A way Russia has been able to respond to.
Expect Trump to do what nobody expected - to go hard out in support for Ukraine. So hard that Russia gives up.
@ovekkjlstad7703 That is what some Ukrainian analysts hope for and I think they are right.
@@ovekkjlstad7703If he does I will be the first to praise him. But there's no indication of that and given Trump's infatuation with Putin I won't hold my breath.
Making europe pay would certainly sound Trump like
I agree Trump wants money. That is what he always thinks about!
Thats very vise,,if you run a country, good wills and hopes and so on, pay no bills
yes he want money, but for himself and not for the country. All serious economists agree that his plans cause a recession. High tarifs increase prices and higher inflation. It means intrestrates must go up and this causes shrinking investments.
The whole world must be laughing at America now. Thinking if this is the best they have…….
It is the best compared to biden
I'd laugh, if it didn't affect us so directly
@@alexverdigris9939how about Europe does something for themselves. Daddy is taking away your allowance and everybody is up in arms😂.
@mickapps3153 We had a free and fair (if you ignore most of our media being in the tank for Harris) election.
@@Truths_Sayer I would say that it has been a mistake for Europe to be so heavily reliant on the US for security.
Remember: in 2016, Trump said he had a plan to replace Obama Care and that he would replace it. He ran hard on this. He never had a plan. He never repealed Obama Care. So, we really have no idea what Trump will do.
The EU is giving Ukraine 50 Billion Dollars this Year from Seized Russian Profits . The EU has approximely 288 Billion remaining of Russian Seized Assets . The Profits will continue to go to Ukraine and at some point i beleive the Rest will also go to Ukraine
"go to Ukraine" means they will go to American and European defense industries. Ukraine is a place where those products are used (spent). It's not like Ukrainian people will actually see any of that money.
@@levbobrov1398more manufacturing inside Europe isn't a bad thing. And majority of the money is in Europe not USA.
Thank you 💛 Anders and you are right, again. Now we'll have to wait and see exactly what Trump will do. That thought scares me.
I guess he will continue to play golf and look that his hotel is full with foreign guests.
I suspect vanity is major reason for Trump when he say he will end the war. He wants to be the guy that just fixes anything. Or at least he wants to appear like he can fix anything.
Thank you Sir.
Anders, thanks for your insights. Some different possibilities to think about.
People told me was nuts when I advocated, that we shouldnt buy F35 or anything important from the US.. And I did that already in 2015-2016..
I completely agree, it makes little sense for the EU to import military equipment instead of producing its own. Even if we buy something from the US corporations, it should only be if it’s produced in the EU and full technology control is transferred.
Too bad Germany manages to ruin all common EU military projects when they negotiate something and walk back their purchases while expecting increases in workshare.
I doubt something will happen before the national armies will be merged into a federal EU army. The EU should have a shared foreign policy as well because military contracts are often driven by such considerations.
We already have more advanced planes than Russia (the SU-57 being vaporware). We don't need the F-35, we can have a bunch of Gripens for the same money.
I still think we should chosen the Gripen. As much as the Swedes suck, they make really good military gear.
Gripen is more expensive than F-35. It might still be the strategic choice - that’s why Sweden came up with it - you just won’t save money with it.
@@usergiodmsilva1983PT How many US made parts does the Gripen use, apart from the engine?
so many doom and gloom scenarios floating around these days - thank you for the level headedness
The way you frame Biden escalation management makes it so cynical. But I partly believe that the best outcome for him is an Ukraine and Russia that are both weak enough to not cause problems but still be stable. This approach just leads to maximum amount of suffering
Yes, and it's not Trump's style which is why he's going to get this over with one way or the other. Personally, I believe that he will not be acting in Russia's interests. Even a compromise where say Russia leaves the Donbas and keeps Crimea would have every chance of toppling Putin. After which Ukraine might be able to get it back. Would that be ok if it ended bloodshed and destruction or nah?
Thank you Anders for another excellent update. Slava Ukraini!
Europe needs to step up. America has sold its soul.
Half right.
The US of A sold its soul many yeas ago. A chunk disapeared under reagan when he removed the fairness doctrine, allowing the press to be just as partisan as they like, and nowadays straight lie, to get more viewers aka more money. So they get the news from channels they agree with, or from SoMe.
USA has always been extreme capitalistic, and that paired with extreme religion has consequenses: So very very very many DUMB americans!
What is the american dream other than obtaining materialistic things?
The praised freedom ideal is just anarchy if there is no regulation or rules anywere. But seems that is what they want!
@@nichevo1 Sadly more than half right.
@@nichevo1 For us outside the US it certainly now is a breaking point about what we think about the Americans now. I nice minority doesn't make the soul of a country. The soul is what the majority is and who they elect as their leader.
@@nichevo1 Not half. There is a minority of nice people in Russia too, but that doesn't help much. Same same with the US
Got to love how we just elected a moron and literally no one has any clue what he's going to do. What a sound a stable choice for our country.
Got to love how still no one has a clue what he's going to do even after he was already POTUS for four years.
In the discussion of plans put forward by "Trump's people", you forgot to mention the plan put out by his actual foreign policy people, which called for making demands on Putin (of the kind that Putin hasn't found anywhere near acceptable so far), and then MASSIVELY INCREASING aid if Putin continues to stonewall.
I mean, if we're talking about the breadth of possibilities, that's certainly in there, and its where my hope lies, atm.
do you have a source for this? I have heard this before but have not found anything concrete...
@@xisotopex Search for Mike Pompeo plan ukraine. It was a comment in the Wall Street Journal where it was presented.
Who are these people? What is the document we should read?
As far as I know Trump has no formal policy on the war in Ukraine. You sound like another gullible supporter. P T Barnum had a saying about people like you.
Mike Pompeo was suggesting this as a possibility, think I read it in The Economist
If this were true, it could be a good route, possibly the only good route. But like the others, I thought that Trump's national security folk had stopped backing him, and he them, amidst lots of claims of fascism. The new proposed staffers seem to be the wide eyed folk that Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 is recruiting...no experience necessary, only mega MAGA enthusiasm. And only have conversations in cafeteria, where they won't be recorded or minuted, once appointed. Anything concrete to point to differently?
Interesting analysis, thanks.
The next question. What is the capability of Europe the replace US help to Ukraina?
Many Americans support Ukraine , that could be tapped going into the future. Trump is too
unpredictable to rely on.
First of all - EU have given more than USA. Secondly, USA gave billions of pentagon dollars, not actual dollars. So EU could replace all of US aid but we may have to buy weapons and munitions from South Korea.
Thank you for your thoughtful analysis!
excellent clarity as always
Great chat as usual. Was waiting for this one. Keep on keeping on.
Trump wanting to end the war for humanitarian reasons😂😂😂
That requires empathy
You are the best thanks
Fabulous summation Anders. Many thanks.
Go Ukraine
I've been following some russian nationalists' channels. They've started talking about the Baltics and Poland.
I suspect forcing Europe to pay for the war will be Trumps goal - it would enable the US to keep supplying Ukraine, but then the onus will be on Europe - not the US in determining the outcome. This would also give a huge boost to funding for Ukraine and Europe's home-grown weapons manufacturing, and will eventually see a decrease in spending on US weapons.
And if Europe had been spending instead of laughing, not only at Trump but at presidents going back at least to gwb, they'd have those warstocks now.
@@nichevo1 I hope you are aware that the current situation with lack of European production capacity is by US design? The US administrations have always tried to make Europe completely dependent on the US arms industry, their only complaint have been that we just aren't spending enough on US arms and in some categories dare to produce our own weapons.
and it would show that the promise the us gave to protect ukr, after Clinton made ukr give russia 4500 nukes, was a lie ,and for ever prove the us can not be trusted,, that could end up costly for the us
@@TheisKrarupHansen Well yeah, the last time Europe had a thriving arms industry you triggered two world wars!
Technicians note, if you want the mic off to one side, you might try an omni mic. The signal is dropping in and out as you move out of its pickup area.
PS, big fan :)
How i want this to go...
EU tells Orban to sit and spin.
South Korea backfills European artillery.
Within the next year or two Europe needs to get super serious about its own defense.
Partner with Poland.
Putin just said that his economy is collapsing and the embargos are working... Ukraine can get this over the goal line without the US.
I am so sorry my country has failed Europe. 😢
Thank you, I was waiting for such a video
Northen Europe plus Baltics incl Poland n Ukraine, ev UK work on this more jointly, to be less dependent on US. Less countries= faster process. Geography matters, we have more to loose
One think certan about Trump is that more often than not he did the exact opposite of what people were expecting of him. If Zelensky plays it well and convinces Trump that a US retire from Ukraine may as well be seen as the NATo retreat from Afghanistan, he can still convince Trump to continue send weapons.
It's quite possible.
Trump is not an idiot, and nothing he's done shows him to be a Putin Puppet.
Give him a good reason to keep supporting Ukraine, such as Europe picking up more of the bill, and he probably won't refuse.
OK Zelenskyy knows he has to lick his boots.
NATO was not in Afghanistan ???
@@cmtwgrdk2748 Yes it was? Even a casual search from imagery in that period would show you European troops with NATO/ISAF patches.
I always appreciate your insight. Thank you.
Keep discussing Trump as if he's a rational agent
A possible motivation for Trump you didn't mention is that Putin is blackmailing him.
With what?
If Putin had all of this blackmail, why didn't he attack Ukraine in 2016, and just tell Trump to stand back?
I heard the rumours too, but thats all it is - rumours. Remember that.
Anders, Thank you for the clear and brief analysis of the type that is usually presented behind closed doors at think tanks or with public policy announcements full of endless caveats,jargon or vague diplospeak. Your analyses are always accessible to the somewhat informed layman.👍
Thanks Anders. The problem is that Trump is unpredictable and he lives in a different matrix, detached from our reality, and that is precisely what poses a great danger, especially for us in Europe. I don't have much hope that anything positive will come of this, rather the opposite, and if it does, it could be devastating for all of us Europeans. Trump is a psycho and also on the verge of stupidity.
Isn’t it nice to have made yourself dependent from US? And now start crying...............?
Watch him talk on Joe Rogan and Lex Friedman. He has a specific plan on what to do. He has a personal for his audience by saying wild shit but he is not stupid
It's so amusing when intelligent rational people expect the same from Donald Trump.
Thanks!
So between you, torsten heinrich and jake broe, your Assessment is the best, because you think broader :) Thank you!
Catastrophe for us all. He's a vile PoS.
The war in Ukraine ending is not really important to Trump. A lot of things he talks about aren't really important to him
Trump is unpredictable and unreliable. So not an easy question to answer ... Thanks Anders!
Yes, but one thing he did state clearly - that he wants to end the NATO.
Fortunately he can't end NATO, he can step out, but NATO is still very strong without the US, if we work together.
If. Important word. Brexit is that an example of team spirit?
That is not happening, can't speak for US though.
Long term it will benefit European weapons industri if US leaves NATO.
Currently most NATO countries buy expensive weapons from USA, but without USA in NATO why would they not buy local produced or from a EU neighbor or even just any European country?
@@ThomasNorthener NATO will lose 99% of its power if trump decides to leave NATO
Pressing analysis as always Anders 👍