That perked my ears up as well. I haven’t thought about this game in terms of specific stats but even still, I’m not sure I expect Penn State to run for 150 and yet I think they’ll win. At this point I want them to run for less than 150 just to test his theory and see what happens.
What about the last part of that quote? "I just don't think that's going to be the case." He also paused before saying "maybe by double digits" in a doubtful tone. He was putting out the possibility, but he doesn't believe the probability.
@ He said confidently, “If Penn State runs for less than 150 yards they are going to lose…”. You’re right that he thinks that maybe it would be by double digits. He doesn’t think that Penn State is going to run for fewer than 150 yards and so they will win. I don’t have any issue with his prediction, just his idea that seems to be, “Penn State can’t win this game by throwing it and can only win if they put up a big chunk of rushing yards.”
I'm not saying it's accurate. Lower the number a bit and might agree. But it's not unhinged. And definitely not the most unhinged thing I've even seen today, let alone "ever".😆
Drew criticism here is wild. Is that Drew or the wideouts? Also did not have a bad game against Oregon, watched it live. That was not him playing poorly. Don’t care what his “YPA” was, watch the game.
Allar has been fantastic this year. He has made so many 4th down completions to save games. He is elite. Not perfect but he consistently makes NFL out route throws, to middle of the road receivers. Not to mention his running ability this year. He worked on slimming down and getting mobile. Hats off to him, for growing each year. I am super impressed with him. PSU 30 SMU 16. The way the O line played amazing against Oregon will be the difference. Ohio State lost to Michigan - unranked team. That's a ridiculous statement.
@@theinfinity2988yes he is or at the very least he’s close to it. This wouldnt even be a conversation we’d be having if you could name a single PSU WR. And thats not me blaming you for not knowing, nobody can name a PSU WR because theyre bad
“Could cold affect players? Probably who knows.” That’s about all there is to say until we generate priors to use from this postseason, and those priors won’t even be extreme scenarios like a blizzard.
As a PSU alumni appreciate the fair analysis. Overlooking any team is foolish. That being said Allar’s air yards I think reflect the WRs in ability to win downfield and Andy’s adjustment in how he calls the game knowing that. Very interested to see how SMU tries to take away the RBs in the passing game and force Drew downfield.
It's weird they think he's really bad. He's only 20 and really only started playing QB his Sophomore year in high school was a TE before that. He's progressed so much in 2 years. Some mock drafts have him has a first rounder. Outside of Warren he has no real weapons and still looked pretty good this year.
Excellent analysis as always. Your reasonable Penn State fan here. I think there are a number of 10-20 yard running plays available for SMU. That will also come with more TFLs than they are used to. Excellent dline but with a LB prone to miss gap assignments. The obvious passing downs due to TFLs means Jennings must be a consistent playmaker under duress in this game. If he is successful then SMU wins. Prediction for next year: the college football nerds point out some QBs take longer to develop and Allar is one of those and in 2025 we can say he is pretty good and worthy of a 1st round pick.
Abdul Carter is going to beat SMU's left tackle like a drum! Clemson's edge rusher had his way with that kid and Clemson's guy ain't Abdul Carter and doesn't have near Carter's quickness or suddenness. Not to mention how weak SMU's IOL looked below average against Clemson.
Give the Nerds a break. Their model is great but is not infallible. It's inaccurate early in the season because of not enough data points, and it can be inaccurate late because of not enough common opponents. I think PSU wins this handily, but there is a reason you play the game, poop happens, and unexpected results occur. It is a weird-shaped ball and it takes weird bounces. It doesn't mean the model is wrong. I am surprised by the model's predictions, and the Nerd's thoughts it will be close. Can't wait to see what happens.
I hate how much everyone over values ypa.. if you actually watched the game he had some amazing throws ypa is irrelevant bc they were running all over them smh..
@@TT2996.CRONOSyour logic is incredibly flawed. If you are able to run all over someone that would suggest the box condenses and deep shots open up increasing ypa
Yeah, it just doesn't make sense. Why beat the YPA drum when a team is heavy on TE and RB usage in the pass game? This just shows a lack of understanding of the game.
Oh you're a college football nerd? Then do a video on each hypothetical matchup in the CFP this year. JK love the content and hope y'all have a happy holidays.
Late to the party due to work. I mean to be fair 90% of teams didnt throw for high amount against OSU or Oregon. Im not here to argue for Drew hes clealry improved. I think SMU is a good team but if that level of Offense carries over to this game it can get ugly. This was a pretty fair video. Yes Franklin is PSUs anchor that holds them down in these big games. Not sure if we win this game or boise people will credit us cause we are expected to win. Well credit franklin or count it. Daniel corrected himself with the Wisconsin game cause we had multiple starters out the second half. Everything else can be fairly criticized. Im shocked you finally acknowledged this team is different than other PSU teams and can win one of those big games. Ive always felt they can its just questionable play calling and stuff. Tbf with the Tez Johnson thing Oregon tore up OSU defense too but at least penn state shut down the rest. I dont think PSU fans are underestimating SMU being in groups. You'd be shocked. Psu fans will always pick the other team to play close or beat us if theyre good or equal. From my experience. Im interested in seeinf if PSU can run the ball on that defense cause if so oh boy lol. This can get ugly. I dont expect a ton of success eveb threw the air for smu but we will see. DON'T FORGET DANI DENNIS SUTTON!!!! HE'S AN ANIMAL TOO ON THE EDGE. We got 2 studs. Zane durant is an awesome underrated DT.
For an SMU/Penn St preview, Clemson was talked about a whole lot. I think you need to acknowledge that the defensive stats for Clemson are skewed by garbage points and yards. Clemson's 1st team D dominated several scrubs that ended up getting more pts/yrds than their avg against the backups. Also, SMU plays fast and they are fast. They have several guys that are 1 missed tackle from a td. I also doubt that Penn St's defensive personnel are better athletically than Clemson's in any real way. SMU getting shocked by Clemson will have them prepared for Penn St.
I wish you guys would just trust your model with this one. I think you guys may be underestimating SMU's rushing defense which is 4th in the country in Yards Allowed. Maybe that is a bit inflated from playing in the ACC, but they are at least respectable and it shouldn't be automatically assumed Penn State will be able to run on them. As far as the Clemson game, people overlook that Clemson actually has a pretty good passing attack. Cade Klubnik had 33 TDs to 5 Ints this year. Also, it's the passing defense that SMU struggles at. So it wasn't a great matchup that SMU should have dominated like you both seem to think. Plus, the game took place 2 hours from Clemson. Hindsight is 20/20 but it seems clear that the gane would be a shootout. So to me this game boils down to Penn State having homefield advantage and Drew Allar's arm. And while I think Allar can do some damage against SMU's porous passing defense, I don't think he will do enough. But that also has to do with having James Franklin your coach. SMU - 27 Penn State 21
I believe Penn State can win the game, but I do not see it by more than one score. However, if Penn St sleeps on them, it could be a bad loss for them. If SMU gets shell-shocked like they did with Clemson, I don't see them catching up to Penn St. However, I think SMU will use Clemson as a lesson and will keep the game close.
While i do think Penn State will be able to run, I think they are able to move the ball enough even if they can't. I think it will be a bad matchup for SMU's lbs and dbs against Warren and Singleton in the pass game.
I would expect the lack of out of conference data points will only increase as conferences move to weak out of conference play because they don't reward SoS. I know OSU got unceremoniously screwed in the 12T having to play Tenn, but honestly it should be played at Tenn. Really Tenn should be playing Penn and SMU OSU. I wish LSU would drop the Clemson game next year. It only can hurt you.
@@CollegeFootballNerds you look for literally anything to critique when evaluating their schedule despite the fact that they beat every single team they were supposed to and were competitive with the teams who they were underdogs to. Don't see this level of critiquing about Texas's 3 pt win vs Vandy, Tennessee's 1 score win over a mid UF team, or [insert any other SEC team here].
@@TomP1553when was Penn State’s last big win for them to garner an ounce of trust? You have to critique them differently because their highlights for years have been about ceiling - analyzing their losses to the only great teams they play.
Actually Josh is a bigger Penn State hater than Daniel. Josh actually lies about Penn State getting blown out by Ohio State every when in reality, Penn State was competitive in games. Meanwhile him and Daniel always makes excuses when their beloved SEC teams are losing games/ playing horribly.
This game is hard to predict because I just don’t know how good smu is. I know that Jennings is good, that’s easy to see. But I have no idea if the defense is actually good or if they just played a bunch of inept offenses. I don’t really know how good their o line or receivers are. My gut tells me they get exposed in the trenches and just aren’t able to do the things they could do to against the basement dwellers of the acc. But maybe my gut is wrong and they are able to continue to do what they’ve done all year. Although, the environment is working against them as well. Both in terms of beaver stadium being a much more hostile crowd than anything smu has seen, and the current forecast of temperatures in the low 20s and possible snow. You’d have to think that favors the run game of psu.
Bowling green, Wisconsin , ucla and Illinois were never in doubt in the second half. The close scores doesn’t mean the other team was threatening to win. If you actually watched the games and not just look at stats and box scores its obvious.
Penn State trailed BGSU at the half and the score was 27-24 for most of the second half. Down 3 with 4 minutes left, BGSU threw an INT near midfield. PSU didn't lead the entire game until 6 minutes left in the 3rd. Wild to accuse me of not watching the game under those circumstances. I didn't say UCLA was in doubt and I even said that the Wisconsin score isn't fair to PSU based on how that game went. UCLA got /destroyed/ by several teams. 27-11 isn't a bright spot given that fact.
Bowling green was completely shut down offensively in the second half. They managed a fg with less than a minute left when they were down 10 to get it back to a td game. So psu had a rough start in their second game of the season, the second leading receiver in the country had a good first half. Hardly anyone brings up the fact that Oregon struggled a lot more against a worse Idaho team in their second game. But because it helps tear down psu in peoples minds they like to bring up that Bowling Green. BG was completely dominated in the second half
Wow im surprised. You guys have been anti-SMU and saying they belong nowhere near the playoff but then you have them a play from beating PSU in happy valley? Even I think the nittany lions will win by 3 scores and I think they should've been in over Bama.
However much they're anti-SMU is nothing compared to how anti-PSU they are. They'd predict Kent State to beat Penn State if they weren't afraid of totally destroying their credibility.
“If Penn state runs for less than 150 they are going to lose maybe by double digits”
That has to be the most unhinged comment I’ve ever heard.
That perked my ears up as well. I haven’t thought about this game in terms of specific stats but even still, I’m not sure I expect Penn State to run for 150 and yet I think they’ll win. At this point I want them to run for less than 150 just to test his theory and see what happens.
Bro they can rush for 10 yards they still winnning this game
What about the last part of that quote? "I just don't think that's going to be the case."
He also paused before saying "maybe by double digits" in a doubtful tone. He was putting out the possibility, but he doesn't believe the probability.
@ He said confidently, “If Penn State runs for less than 150 yards they are going to lose…”. You’re right that he thinks that maybe it would be by double digits. He doesn’t think that Penn State is going to run for fewer than 150 yards and so they will win. I don’t have any issue with his prediction, just his idea that seems to be, “Penn State can’t win this game by throwing it and can only win if they put up a big chunk of rushing yards.”
I'm not saying it's accurate. Lower the number a bit and might agree. But it's not unhinged. And definitely not the most unhinged thing I've even seen today, let alone "ever".😆
I love SMU’s story this season, but Penn St is going to do whatever they want this game.
Drew criticism here is wild. Is that Drew or the wideouts? Also did not have a bad game against Oregon, watched it live. That was not him playing poorly. Don’t care what his “YPA” was, watch the game.
Allar was impressive against Oregon. He’s a dude. He’s missing the weapons but hopefully next year that changes.
Cold weather = - 7 points fir SMU. Psu 30 SMU 17
Penn State 38 SMU 23
"We have a wonderful computer model"... Direct response 😂
Allar has been fantastic this year. He has made so many 4th down completions to save games. He is elite. Not perfect but he consistently makes NFL out route throws, to middle of the road receivers. Not to mention his running ability this year. He worked on slimming down and getting mobile. Hats off to him, for growing each year. I am super impressed with him. PSU 30 SMU 16. The way the O line played amazing against Oregon will be the difference. Ohio State lost to Michigan - unranked team. That's a ridiculous statement.
Allar is not elite lol
@@theinfinity2988yes he is or at the very least he’s close to it. This wouldnt even be a conversation we’d be having if you could name a single PSU WR. And thats not me blaming you for not knowing, nobody can name a PSU WR because theyre bad
23-25 SMU.....😂😂 This model is about to get smoked
The wildest one to me is the model still has Texas as around a 3 point favorite over UGA.
Bro said that Allar is in year of three of “this system” this is Kotelnicki’s first year.
🤣
No mention of the weather being mid-20s with 10-15 mph wind? Has to be worth some value
You didn’t even mention weather? SMH
Cold weather isn't a huge factor when it's mid-20s with no snow. It's going to be 33 in Dallas Friday.
Don’t both teams play in the weather? lol
“Could cold affect players? Probably who knows.” That’s about all there is to say until we generate priors to use from this postseason, and those priors won’t even be extreme scenarios like a blizzard.
@@CollegeFootballNerdsThey’ll be traveling Friday it doesn’t matter idiot. It was in the 70s in Dallas today they’re not going to be comfortable
As a PSU alumni appreciate the fair analysis. Overlooking any team is foolish. That being said Allar’s air yards I think reflect the WRs in ability to win downfield and Andy’s adjustment in how he calls the game knowing that. Very interested to see how SMU tries to take away the RBs in the passing game and force Drew downfield.
Boys, please put the analytics down and watch the games. Allar balled out vs Oregon.
It's weird they think he's really bad. He's only 20 and really only started playing QB his Sophomore year in high school was a TE before that. He's progressed so much in 2 years. Some mock drafts have him has a first rounder. Outside of Warren he has no real weapons and still looked pretty good this year.
Although I do agree he shouldn't have been a 5 star out of HS just with how raw he was.
Also against usc and every other team. Its like they’re only capable of thinking that allar is who he was against Michigan and ohio state in 23
"put the analytics down" = "put what happened down"
Allar was 5.8 yards/attempt, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. That’s objectively bad, statistically. Ohio State threw for 9.3 against them, even Michigan threw for 6.6.
Excellent analysis as always. Your reasonable Penn State fan here. I think there are a number of 10-20 yard running plays available for SMU. That will also come with more TFLs than they are used to. Excellent dline but with a LB prone to miss gap
assignments. The obvious passing downs due to TFLs means Jennings must be a consistent playmaker under duress in this game. If he is successful then SMU wins. Prediction for next year: the college football nerds point out some QBs take longer to develop and Allar is one of those and in 2025 we can say he is pretty good and worthy of a 1st round pick.
Abdul Carter is going to beat SMU's left tackle like a drum! Clemson's edge rusher had his way with that kid and Clemson's guy ain't Abdul Carter and doesn't have near Carter's quickness or suddenness. Not to mention how weak SMU's IOL looked below average against Clemson.
Penn State - 31
SMU - 17
Go Dawgs! Sic Em!
Thanks for the review! Not much worried about this game. It’s going to be 20-something degrees in an Ice White-Out!
Give the Nerds a break. Their model is great but is not infallible. It's inaccurate early in the season because of not enough data points, and it can be inaccurate late because of not enough common opponents. I think PSU wins this handily, but there is a reason you play the game, poop happens, and unexpected results occur. It is a weird-shaped ball and it takes weird bounces. It doesn't mean the model is wrong. I am surprised by the model's predictions, and the Nerd's thoughts it will be close. Can't wait to see what happens.
Would be very interested in a breakdown of IU vs ND. Will you be covering that game?
Yes. We'll do all the playoff games this year.
Sick
Did you guys really say allar didnt ball out against Oregon? Lmao
Allar was 5.8 yards/attempt, 3 TDs, 2 INTs. Thats an objectively bad day, statistically. Ohio State threw for 9.3. *Michigan* threw for 6.6.
I hate how much everyone over values ypa.. if you actually watched the game he had some amazing throws ypa is irrelevant bc they were running all over them smh..
@@TT2996.CRONOSyour logic is incredibly flawed. If you are able to run all over someone that would suggest the box condenses and deep shots open up increasing ypa
Yeah, it just doesn't make sense. Why beat the YPA drum when a team is heavy on TE and RB usage in the pass game? This just shows a lack of understanding of the game.
@@CollegeFootballNerdsbro if you watched the game nobody came away with the take that he had a bad day. This is an insane take.
PSU 38
SMU 20
Oh you're a college football nerd? Then do a video on each hypothetical matchup in the CFP this year.
JK love the content and hope y'all have a happy holidays.
Late to the party due to work.
I mean to be fair 90% of teams didnt throw for high amount against OSU or Oregon. Im not here to argue for Drew hes clealry improved.
I think SMU is a good team but if that level of Offense carries over to this game it can get ugly. This was a pretty fair video. Yes Franklin is PSUs anchor that holds them down in these big games. Not sure if we win this game or boise people will credit us cause we are expected to win. Well credit franklin or count it.
Daniel corrected himself with the Wisconsin game cause we had multiple starters out the second half. Everything else can be fairly criticized. Im shocked you finally acknowledged this team is different than other PSU teams and can win one of those big games. Ive always felt they can its just questionable play calling and stuff.
Tbf with the Tez Johnson thing Oregon tore up OSU defense too but at least penn state shut down the rest. I dont think PSU fans are underestimating SMU being in groups. You'd be shocked. Psu fans will always pick the other team to play close or beat us if theyre good or equal. From my experience.
Im interested in seeinf if PSU can run the ball on that defense cause if so oh boy lol. This can get ugly. I dont expect a ton of success eveb threw the air for smu but we will see.
DON'T FORGET DANI DENNIS SUTTON!!!! HE'S AN ANIMAL TOO ON THE EDGE. We got 2 studs. Zane durant is an awesome underrated DT.
For an SMU/Penn St preview, Clemson was talked about a whole lot. I think you need to acknowledge that the defensive stats for Clemson are skewed by garbage points and yards. Clemson's 1st team D dominated several scrubs that ended up getting more pts/yrds than their avg against the backups.
Also, SMU plays fast and they are fast. They have several guys that are 1 missed tackle from a td. I also doubt that Penn St's defensive personnel are better athletically than Clemson's in any real way. SMU getting shocked by Clemson will have them prepared for Penn St.
No no no, you guys are good enough to know that SMU cannot stop the PSU rush offense.
Think you might be surprised by how few points SMU puts up
I wish you guys would just trust your model with this one. I think you guys may be underestimating SMU's rushing defense which is 4th in the country in Yards Allowed. Maybe that is a bit inflated from playing in the ACC, but they are at least respectable and it shouldn't be automatically assumed Penn State will be able to run on them.
As far as the Clemson game, people overlook that Clemson actually has a pretty good passing attack. Cade Klubnik had 33 TDs to 5 Ints this year. Also, it's the passing defense that SMU struggles at. So it wasn't a great matchup that SMU should have dominated like you both seem to think. Plus, the game took place 2 hours from Clemson. Hindsight is 20/20 but it seems clear that the gane would be a shootout.
So to me this game boils down to Penn State having homefield advantage and Drew Allar's arm. And while I think Allar can do some damage against SMU's porous passing defense, I don't think he will do enough. But that also has to do with having James Franklin your coach. SMU - 27 Penn State 21
27:45 Alabama lost to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. It doesn’t matter how strong your schedule is if you lose to the bad teams on your schedule.
They lost to one more team than SMU lost to. And SMU didn't beat a single ranked team.
Almost as if playing enough good teams takes a toll on the whole schedule? Huh
This is an irrational way to weigh notables when analyzing teams, their potential, and their resume.
SEC is in down year it clear to everyone. Georgia sucks, Texas sucks, Tennessee sucks, Bama sucks. Big ten just better this year.
I think smu can keep it close, just hard to envision a win solely due to 2 things (the weather and Penn state's defensive front)
I have great respect for you but we are taking SMU by 2 scores. Ridiculous.
Penn State gets rewarded the world's luckiest bracket in the history of sports *AFTER* losing their conference championship.
I'd say it's Boise State who will be an uunderdog to either of these teams next week.
Till they face Georgia!
Yep! And I’ll take it. It’s a make up call for the 2016 Big Ten Championship we won AND THEN THEY PICKED OHIO STATE ANYWAY FOR THE CFP! 😊
I believe Penn State can win the game, but I do not see it by more than one score. However, if Penn St sleeps on them, it could be a bad loss for them.
If SMU gets shell-shocked like they did with Clemson, I don't see them catching up to Penn St. However, I think SMU will use Clemson as a lesson and will keep the game close.
While i do think Penn State will be able to run, I think they are able to move the ball enough even if they can't. I think it will be a bad matchup for SMU's lbs and dbs against Warren and Singleton in the pass game.
So using your logic, Ohio State should fall to I ranked since they lost to Michigan, right?
I would expect the lack of out of conference data points will only increase as conferences move to weak out of conference play because they don't reward SoS. I know OSU got unceremoniously screwed in the 12T having to play Tenn, but honestly it should be played at Tenn. Really Tenn should be playing Penn and SMU OSU. I wish LSU would drop the Clemson game next year. It only can hurt you.
Daniel, it's so painfully obvious you're just a Penn State hater it's laughable.
Based on what?
@@CollegeFootballNerds you look for literally anything to critique when evaluating their schedule despite the fact that they beat every single team they were supposed to and were competitive with the teams who they were underdogs to. Don't see this level of critiquing about Texas's 3 pt win vs Vandy, Tennessee's 1 score win over a mid UF team, or [insert any other SEC team here].
@@TomP1553because Penn state benefits from “good losses” without beating a single good team ever 😂
@@TomP1553when was Penn State’s last big win for them to garner an ounce of trust? You have to critique them differently because their highlights for years have been about ceiling - analyzing their losses to the only great teams they play.
Actually Josh is a bigger Penn State hater than Daniel. Josh actually lies about Penn State getting blown out by Ohio State every when in reality, Penn State was competitive in games. Meanwhile him and Daniel always makes excuses when their beloved SEC teams are losing games/ playing horribly.
This game is hard to predict because I just don’t know how good smu is. I know that Jennings is good, that’s easy to see. But I have no idea if the defense is actually good or if they just played a bunch of inept offenses. I don’t really know how good their o line or receivers are. My gut tells me they get exposed in the trenches and just aren’t able to do the things they could do to against the basement dwellers of the acc. But maybe my gut is wrong and they are able to continue to do what they’ve done all year.
Although, the environment is working against them as well. Both in terms of beaver stadium being a much more hostile crowd than anything smu has seen, and the current forecast of temperatures in the low 20s and possible snow. You’d have to think that favors the run game of psu.
Feels like James Franklin is gonna James Franklin.
This isn’t a big game
WTF no way this game this close lol
It's gonna be 20 degrees, flurries and wind-chill lows in the teens. Forget your analytics... SMU is cooked
Bowling green, Wisconsin , ucla and Illinois were never in doubt in the second half. The close scores doesn’t mean the other team was threatening to win. If you actually watched the games and not just look at stats and box scores its obvious.
Penn State trailed BGSU at the half and the score was 27-24 for most of the second half. Down 3 with 4 minutes left, BGSU threw an INT near midfield. PSU didn't lead the entire game until 6 minutes left in the 3rd.
Wild to accuse me of not watching the game under those circumstances.
I didn't say UCLA was in doubt and I even said that the Wisconsin score isn't fair to PSU based on how that game went. UCLA got /destroyed/ by several teams. 27-11 isn't a bright spot given that fact.
Weren’t the mighty lions losing to BG? lol hilarious
Bowling green was completely shut down offensively in the second half. They managed a fg with less than a minute left when they were down 10 to get it back to a td game. So psu had a rough start in their second game of the season, the second leading receiver in the country had a good first half. Hardly anyone brings up the fact that Oregon struggled a lot more against a worse Idaho team in their second game. But because it helps tear down psu in peoples minds they like to bring up that Bowling Green. BG was completely dominated in the second half
@ not even going to read your propping up a community college vs a p4. Game should never have been close, much less BG having the lead. What a joke
Wow im surprised. You guys have been anti-SMU and saying they belong nowhere near the playoff but then you have them a play from beating PSU in happy valley? Even I think the nittany lions will win by 3 scores and I think they should've been in over Bama.
However much they're anti-SMU is nothing compared to how anti-PSU they are. They'd predict Kent State to beat Penn State if they weren't afraid of totally destroying their credibility.
The Dinich Twins with lots of hot goss.
Clearly you fellas do not watch the games and only look at box scores and statistics.. you don’t know ball.
PSU will blow out SMU and Alabama should have made it. Fight me
Penn State gonna dog walk smu the ponies are vastly overrated