Exponential growth, power laws, and bitcoin portfolio management with Dr. Jeff Ross
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 พ.ค. 2024
- In this episode, Dr. Jeff Ross shares insights on current macroeconomic trends, including the Federal Reserve's reconsideration of rate cuts, increased market volatility over the past month, and unexpectedly high inflation rates. He discusses the power law model, drawing comparisons with patterns observed during his medical career as a physician and radiologist. Dr. Jeff also explores strategies for constructing the optimal portfolio in 2024 and in the future under a bitcoin standard.
SUPPORT THE PODCAST:
→ Subscribe
→ Leave a review
→ Share the show out with your friends and family
→ Send us an email podcast@unchained.com
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Intro
00:01:33 Macro-fed walking back rate cuts, VIX high, hot inflation
00:06:55 S2F and power law-where will bitcoin go this cycle?
00:17:49 Best performing hedge fund of 2024
00:20:57 Bitcoin, MSTR, miners, and options?
00:26:53 Changing the geopolitical world order
00:33:00 What’s the optimal bitcoin allocation?
00:37:36 Is there anyone that should not buy bitcoin?
00:39:13 Will investment management get less or more important?
00:40:32 ETF, exchange, or self custody?
00:42:41 Will financial advisors play a role in private key management?
00:45:32 Future of bitcoin custody
00:48:28 Are passive index funds useful on a bitcoin standard?
00:51:37 Optimal portfolio allocation on a bitcoin standard
00:53:15 Closing thoughts
WHERE TO FOLLOW US:
→ Unchained Twitter: / unchainedcom
→ Unchained Linkedin: / unchainedcom
→ Unchained Newsletter: unchained.com/newsletter
→ Joe Burnett’s Twitter: / iiicapital
→ Dr. Jeff Ross’s Twitter: / vailshirecap - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
If you can’t talk about your bitcoin wealth with your financial advisor, it might be time to find a new advisor. Check out Sound Advisory at thesoundadvisory.com.
One nit-picking thing that is a minor issue but as a scientist, it bothers me a little bit.
Also given the topic (understanding the difference between exponential and power law behavior) I want to make a clarification.
While the interview is excellent and Dr. Ross supported the power law, he often uses the term "parabolic" during the interview.
I know he means "exponential" given the context (he says it is an unstainable growth).
The term is often misused in that way. I understand. But really a parabola (from which parabolic comes) is a power law! It is y=x^2 which is a power law.
In fact, given Bitcoin=time^6 is actually a super parabola. Bitcoin is super-parabolic all the time (well it is exponential up during the fast bull market and then exponential down during the bear market). But for 2 years Bitcoin is super-parabolic.
So it is important to use terms properly, and I believe Dr. Ross meant exponential not parabolic when he was repeating that term.
It is a minor detail but relevant given the topic of the discussion.
Good work gentlemen.
This is very helpful and I especially appreciate it being a math guy myself. Much thanks.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Great interview really informative
Wow, what an awesome and informative interview! Kudos to both of you guys!
Great interview, the power law is the way.
Jeff is the best!
Grifter lol
Jeff ... You're my soul brother!
Excellent video! Thanks Jeff! Huge fan of MSTR in ROTH!
Excellent thank you. Enjoyed every minute.
Exciting times ahead with Revux! Just joined the presale - can't wait to see where this project goes
Hey Jeff Ross Enjoyed your roast of Tom Brady last weekend. Hilarious, great job
Already envisioning the benefits of Revux's streamlined investment journey. Great new project.
Diving into Revux's whitepaper - the innovation and technology behind this project are mind-blowing!
Thanks. Great content.
Thanks for watching!
Presale excitement building up! Revux's project is making waves for all the right reasons.
Exciting times for Revux - partnerships with major industry players are unlocking new possibilities. This presale rocks...
Revux's presale is gaining momentum - early supporters, let's seize this opportunity together!
What a boss
Well now this is a first! A radiologist hedge fund manager bitcoin maxi! I do think he is right about Saylor and Microstrategy- and not just because MSTR is my largest holding after BTC! Also think he is right about first mover advantage, like El Salvador- and not just because I went there last year and am now in the process of moving there! Watch the video of the college commencement speech that was booed when he said, "bitcoin" and you will know we are still very early. Very early. While at the same time between FASB, SEC and global adoption, risk has never been lower. 10X baked in, 100X ala Saylor definitely doable over time. As Saylor said let them take 10 years to figure this out, we should be happy, because once everyone gets it... no more 100X!
As far as the discussion of World Superpowers...The US Govt. owns 207 thousand BTC. They could decide to back US treasuries / US dollar with BTC, and even copy the strategy of MSTR. MicroStrategy owns approx. 215k BTC. Which could maintain the USD as the world reserve currency.
MSTR HQ is literally down the road from Langley. The founders dad was Naval intelligence. The founder was Air Force rotc, he went to MIt, his first “customer” was DuPont, he runs a huge data gathering, err “data analytics” company. Do the math
Presale fever is real with Revux - the coolest project in town
Nice headphones. Brand plz?
Excellent show. I like the general advice, but if I'm a power law adherent and I saw Bitcoin going over $500K this cycle, it would seem prudent to sell some, pay the tax, and then hold the cash until you can buy back that Bitcoin and hopefully have a little to spend. - Yikes, nevermind. Way too complicated. Not selling.
Anyone know where to get the shirt the Doc has on?
Its 96% correlated to a power law (straight line on a log log chart) and has moved through enough orders of magnitude for it to be sustainable indefinitely. DYOR
And what about Kaspa and the power law?
What is the difference between Power Law Model and Exponential Growth Model?
Power growth is a special case of exponential growth that follows this basic equation: f(x) = x^a, where a, the exponent, is constant. Unbounded exponential growth follows this equation instead: f(x) = a^x, where x, the exponent, is a variable.
@@paulochinho Probably easier to understand if you use t as the time parameter instead of x. However, I have doubts that Bitcoin's growth in the first ten years can only be described by a power law.
@@OrbitTheSun this is a great discussion about power law: th-cam.com/video/jiEJCblycCo/w-d-xo.htmlsi=WCXMqrn5da88FX1w
Look at Kaspa on a log chart.
Revux has at least 50-80x potential for 2024. Don´t ignore this project.
What is multi sig????
To move Bitcoin from a multi sig address 2 of 3 (or however you have it set, n of m) people need to sign the transaction.
@@sethbracken ahhh got it ty!
If you $ Cost Average don't make your UTXOs so small that they become unspendable dust.
Good advice. What is the minimum btc quantity needed to avoid the utxo problem.?
@@nattapongchatchai610 Well that is the rub. What it is now and what it will be in the future won't be the same. Depends on how high fees become. The samaller investor who isn't buy whoel coins at a time is potentially going to be hurt. It is a conundrum.
mostly agree, but...I do think bitcoin CAGR will increase for the next few years as adoption goes parabolic. I do agree that BTC CAGR will eventually flatten out, but not in the near term.
And I know personally bitcoin sceptics. We are so early.
Dude people use houses because it generates INCOME. Why do Bitcoiners not understand this? Real estate is an amazing investment when you consider the leverage used. Otherwise completely agree with all that was said.
No because it's a store of value, but that shouldn't be the case. Bitcoin will probably replace that part and houses will, go down to their utility value
He may be referring to people buying second and third homes to store wealth that mostly just sit vacant, which is a not uncommon practice. Landlords who are generating positive cash flow and providing housing for people can still make positive returns, though maybe not in Bitcoin denominated terms over the long term. Also, keep in mind that suppressed interest rates make buying assets on leverage a no brainer. If we encounter a sustained period of rising interest rates, it could spell pain or disaster for anyone caught over their skis.
have fun staying poor with your real estate
Many Many people cant afford real estate so how do you propose they invest the little money they can?? Bitcoin offers a much higher rate of return over a long time then anything else!
@@ronp5746exactly, RE is time consuming and isn’t finite
Regarding the unsustainable exponential growth of Bitcoin, and the analogy of an invasive species using up all the resources and killing the host, doesn’t that just mean killing fiat and hyperbitcoinization (As disruptive as that may be)?
No, it means when price goes parabolic it attracts so much attention and sucks in so many people that it reaches a point where there's no one left to buy, an price crashes. As opposed to rapid growth where some people sell but growth outpaces selling leading to a much more steady and sustainable long term growth. Killing fiat never will happen, not in our lifetimes anyway, because even if governments go to bitcoin backed currency (which they will!) it will still be opaque, they will still be able to print, just like during the gold exchange standard years they swapped paper for gold but kept printing paper. As long as people can print money they will. Only way this ends is everyone using bitcoin for everything. Which probably will happen, just not any time soon.
@47 No
Great interview
Bitcoin Cash is up about 300% in one year, so over twice the gains as BTC over the same period
BCH has the same 21M max supply, the same Genesis block, same miners and halvings
Transactions are on-chain with BCH, no need to use off-chain money transmitters...
"It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on"
Have fun staying poor
He is a radiologist? Did I hear that correctly?
Yup
@@P__114 and he is talking about finance? Byee
@@Rsellerebayboi he also runs a very successful boutique fund. Super smart guy.
This is so dumb, this guy calling for 8x in 18 months. Not happening. You don't make $7T moves in 18 months. $3T in 4 years.
Be useful and, go back to being a proctologist.
he is a statist. if he is a quack or not, hard to tell. but his opinion is irrelevant
I've been telling my wife that biometric scanning for seed management will be the future. This is first time I heard someone else say it. Karen Kingston shakes out several of these patents in her talk from Oct 17, 2021 (See Patent W0/2020/060606). Sure seems to align with stuff in Revelation huh?
yea.. it took 10 years for BTC to hit $75k and even tho I can foresee a $143k BTC by Feb 2025.. hit suddenly seems a stretch to match 10 years of growth in less than 10 months. I dunno
And yet nvida mcap has gone up 250b ish in the last few days.