🚗🤖Tesla: Robotaxi Implications & Valuation🌟
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 พ.ค. 2024
- #Tesla #Robotaxi #ValuationModel #Implications #FutureOfTransport #FSD
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DISCLAIMER: InvestAnswers does not provide financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. None of the content on the InvestAnswers channels is financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and should not be taken as such; the content is intended only for educational and entertainment purposes. InvestAnswers (James) shares some of his trades as learning examples but they are only relevant to his specific portfolio allocation, risk tolerance & financial expertise, may not constitute a comprehensive or complete discussion of such topics, and should not be emulated. The content of this video is solely the opinion(s) of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading equities or cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. Kindly use your judgment and do your own research at all times. You are solely responsible for your own financial, investing, and trading decisions.
00:00 - Introduction to Real Project and Baby AGI
02:00 - Tipping Point
02:15 - Tesla's Approach vs. Other AI Players
02:30 - Elon Musk on FSD as Baby AGI
02:55 - Cathie Wood's Prediction: Robotaxi by EOY
03:20 - Karpathy: FSD's Superiority to Human Drivers
04:09 - Torque News: RT and FSD Developments
04:30 - The Non-Trivial Nature of FSD
05:05 - Driverless World Timeline Predictions
05:30 - The Genesis Story of Robotaxi
06:45 - Tesla's Vision for Autonomous Fleet and Network
07:30 - Revenue Sharing and Regulatory Challenges
08:15 - Emphasis on Safety, Reliability, and Technology Advancements
09:00 - Hardware Readiness and Cost Efficiency of Robotaxis
09:45 - Global Expansion Plans for Tesla Robotaxi Service
10:30 - FSD's Value Proposition at $199 a Month
10:45 - Tesla's Shift to Focus on Robotaxi Production
11:00 - Unveiling Date and Mass Production Goals for Robotaxi
11:15 - Features of Tesla's Dedicated Robotaxi Model
11:30 - Advanced AI Capabilities and Challenges in Achieving Full Autonomy
11:45 - Visual Representation: What Robotaxi Looks Like!
12:00 - Robotaxi's Operational Value and Economic Impact
12:26 - IA's Back of Napkin Robotaxi Valuation Model Part 1
16:30 - Anticipation for Robotaxi Model Success
17:15 - Robotaxi Implications: 2nd & 3rd Order Effects
18:00 - Future Valuation Considerations and Market Size
20:20 - Tesla's Competitive Advantage in AI and Robotaxi Market
21:30 - Unique Aspects of Tesla's Approach to Level 5 Autonomy
22:15 - The Unmatched Safety of Tesla Cars - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
TESLA talks by you is my favorite entertainment. I love it!!! Good thing it’s Saturday. I would have bought too many shares during this talk.
You rock!
You can't buy too many Tesla shares at this price!
lol he convinced me and I bought last week
i dont believe what elon says, he said on8/8 but not witch year, could be 2025, he is a good liar and manipulator , but in one case he did not lie, when he mentioned, i don't f care about tesla stocks holder, that's why we do not getting dividends ,and the stock goes only one way to down south.
Haha ,yes I get inspired too! Buying Monday 😁
Driving from Sacramento CA to and from San Francisco without disengagement... And all we can say is "amazing!"
It us truly remarkable. Few understand
This guy is Elite. He is as sharp as new razor......Send to your friends this video, they will thank u later!
You are the best
Many thanks for your seemingly 24/7 hard work to deliver quality information!
My pleasure
I started my deep dive in tesla this year and boy am i glad i did. I actually had no idea tesla were more than a car company. I started my buying at around 200 and Will keep buying with 30% of my earnings this Whole year. Elon Musk is a true genius and i love what Tesla is doing. If you still have not doing your deep dive in Tesla i would start doing it today. This is a great opportunity to make an investment that probobly Will change both my own economy and at the same time change the world that we live in for the better. ❤ thank you for this episode investanswers.
tried out fsd 12.3.3 in my tesla today for the fist time........ blown away!
Truly is
A like even before I start listening. Nobody does Tesla better than James.
Merci Prof🎉
🙏
Thank you James. WOW it’s amazing what foresight Elon had years ago. We are lucky you do the math to predict such incredible outcomes of this AI boom!
truly is mind blowing
Own a taxi company and I'm planning for this. Also James, insurance is the second largest expense, gas is usually only 10-12% revenue.
Look at solar charging your taxi's 🤑
my bet is that a robotaxi will not be legally permitted to be unmanned at anytime while moving on any public road, no state will allow that, legally there will have to be a huge change and thats many many years away...major cost just returned to the equation WORKING TIME
@@davegubbins4428 Driverless cars have been doing that in San Francisco for more than a year. Often no passengers. Just a car driving around by itself.
@@davegubbins4428 there are already robotaxis on the streets. I live in Phoenix and we have Waymo here. I saw 3 at the same time yesterday.
@@davegubbins4428agreed it will take time. One part is tech and the other is regulatory. What happens when it crashes who is going to be responsible. Too many variables at this time.
Who's going to clean the cars at the end of each shift, and what cost would that be. People are going to eat and drink in these cars, only takes one customer to soil the car, and who's going to want to get in it. I would imagine these are real world issues. Thoughts?
Exactly. Not to mention that over half of the West's roads will be un-navigable in winter due to snow/weather preventing the optical-based system from functioning safely. That's why radar based systems are the only viable ones long term. Tesla's system works reasonably well in warm climates, but not so much in snow.
I think there's two different issues here. One is the soiling from food, drink, vomit etc. The other is the need for general run-of-the-mill cleaning.
For soiling, I would imagine that the robotaxi will have an internal camera. You can see who soiled and just charge that customer's account for cleaning costs and driving time lost.
For general cleaning, you have a little depot where robotaxis return to for charging and cleaning. Optimus can connect them to superchargers, vacuum the insides and wipe down surfaces.
None of this seems like a problem.
Real World issues? Lol. That doesnt exist in the world of Musk and his fans
@@Rein______ Well I'm an Elon Musk fan and you literally left your comment under mine, where I acknowledge that these are real issues which will exist in the real world and need to be accounted for. So it seems like you're wrong about that.
Auto cleaning bot, or they can just hire the taxi drivers to do the cleaning
Why not robotbus?
Awesome work James, I Thought it would be 2025. Because of all the rumblings from people thinking of swapping from TSLA to faster horses i doubled down on TSLA. Its so exciting. Thankyou for your commitment and focus. Im now 4x my inital lump sum purchases of TSLA in October 2023 and still buying 🙂
FSD sounds great. I imagine it will be almost as reliable as the Solana network.
Hi James! I’m a Patreon member and you have helped me immensely, financially and educationally.
I was hoping you could do a reaction or a comment video on meet Kevin’s Tesla robotaxi vid. He breaks down why he thinks robotaxi will not be profitable
Regardless if you do or not thanks for all you do!
If you start having full self-driving cars for tesla? Then you're going to have a lot of people using the service and basically being charged for the service that means that Tesla will have a revenue sharing platform all over somewhere around a millions of dollars by the time it's all said and done. But what's going to happen next, is something that's going to be really revolutionary so I think this is going to give waymo a run for their money! And I think that in the long run is they're going to have Tesla's with no steering wheel the Tesla will have full self-driving in just a matter of months. However, you're going to start seeing a lot more people getting the idea especially a lot of people who are blind and disabled, and the reason why I'm saying this now is very simple that basically what I'm saying is I have a couple of friends that are Tesla owners and I can tell you that they're going to be getting people like myself and the idea of full self-driving by just showing the passenger what full self-driving is really all about and what it can do for the person who can't drive like myself because I am legally blind and partially sighted!
Don’t waste your time reacting to the emotional. A $40k Model Y (with no driver) can drive 100,000 paid miles a year, and generate $100k or more in income. That’s what all these Tesla Bull valuations are expecting.
Kevin is a real estate course sales man. He’s not a finance guy. He also sold at the bottom. Beware who you listen to. Thanks for being in Patreon.
Besides the investment part. I also can’t say how much I’m happy to see this tech emerge, as I lost the cognitive ability to drive a car on my down because of a stroke 2 years ago - I was 33 years old.
But I also might need to wait 10 more years than you in the states as here in Germany we probably will regulate it to death at first, before hopefully paddeling back later 😅
Sorry to hear about your stroke. Was it after getting the mRNA shots?
What would I see coming is exactly what this guy saying, but what I'm going to be seeing is this that these robot taxi services from Tesla will immediately kill public transportation! As a matter of fact you're going to start seeing city buses and Link light rail trains start to have their passengers diminish real quickly add service will just completely be destroyed my Tesla robo taxi service. But it's not going to go ahead and roll this out by August 8th of this year which is a Thursday then we need to find out how much it's going to be put into the service and is there going to be an app for everybody to use and possibly maintain to keep it up and running at that time!
Thank you James!
Thanks for making your videos a little extra longer!!! Love that I can like the video instead of watching a full TH-cam ad to make sure I can get that like in!! 🔥🔥
Glad you like them!
Tried FSD. Nice. But car couldn’t pass double parked car. Everyone was honking. Had to do it manually. How robotaxi would handle it ?? With no driver
Thanks James.....had no Tesla till listening to you this year...now have 648 and am just as excited about it as I was in 2014 at bitcoin lows.
James’ brain fries at the Tesla mind maps.. while my brain fries w/ his putting all that info into words & slides.. amazing intel that he communicates.. Just wow!! 🤯🙏🏻🙌🏻
Awesome deep dive on Teslas future!!! Love and appreciate all your work 🤙
James, would you please update us on TESLA? Appreciate you!
Much appreciated James and IA community!
Nice to listen to bullish views. But you really underestimate to downside risks to the robotaxi. Having a good flow with people behind the wheels is not the same as having no driver. The question is how many times do the drivers intervene and disengage the FSD. Also the regulatory hurdles is still quite big and I think the regulators trust in cameras vs lidar is still a bit unclear.
Your enthusiasm racks me up. Very infectious. ❤
Oh thank you!
Amazing James. Thank you.
Thank you James, for the insights. Always appreciated
Appreciate for the great job that you do 👌🔥🔥🙏👏👏
You are beyond SUPERB James..you've made me a TESLA Bull ♥️♥️♥️♥️
The guy who shorted the banks said hard to short a cult😅😅 also what's the repair time and costs for tesla .
Maybe in few years I might consider when batteries are better and don't weigh so much. Friend had one wasn't overwhelmed 😢.
So rad. Thanks for breakdown. Rowdy.
James as always, an excellent presentation. Tesla are on the path of where it will change our lives. FSD with Dojo, Robotaxi is only the beginning. Applications are unimaginable. Robotaxi and other car manufacturers licensing, applications that can be used in Optimus and also licensed by others Robotic companies and other scenarios where vision is required are endless and unimaginably. The future is changing fast, but this will all accelerate into a new vision. By 2035 will will all be living in a new world
I hope pray you will be blessed with a long and healthy life Sensei.
I’m so excited about this and sounds like a future everyone can benefit from. I’m just confused on how they will manage people from trashing the interior of the vehicles from vomiting/breaking screens etc. also how would this vehicle go in somewhere in India or central Australia where road lines may not be very clear or nonexistent.
You would not use a Tesla in Central Australia unless you were picking up Skippy the Bush Kangaroo😁
Easy, charge for damages to the car will be made to customer credit card on file. And of course, cameras will be inside car recording everything. Chi-chin!
Thank you, James! Patreon member here.
When I hear you talk about Tesla it makes me impatient for the future!!!
I love my Tesla! I use FSD all the time, but it is not perfect. It can NOT see potholes and goes right through them, anything low to the ground it really can't see. It also did not see that the lane it was going to change into, the guy on the other lane was also going to change into it (they had their signal light on two lanes over). So both of us were going to lane change into the same lane. I could see it, my FSD could not and I was paying attention to override. It can't see the signal light of a car two lanes over, but it's important to know that intent. FSD is good, but not the same as a human driver yet....but it's getting there.
Can it handle snow?
Hi James thanks for all your hard work. I think it would be really good to put some risks alongside your Tesla videos. I agree it’s an asymmetrical bet but there is still a level of risk which would be good to have communicated alongside it. Love your work and dedication to providing the best research out there though!
Genius investor and a phenomenal analyst. Looking forward to your next video, James.
Great stuff James. Thank you.
Fantastic video as usual !! Live the maths approach !!
Unclear there is a difference for the legislator if they will think that it is different between Full self driving vs driver still need to look at the road and guide for USA
Nonetheless this is so exciting for Tesla
Rob from down under
Yo James!! 47,000 views in 18 hours? Are you going mainstream? You Rock!!!!
TSLA is an important part of my pension account so I always appreciate the work you do with this, though I do have some concerns about some areas of the business (but that's another subject). Question...any chance something like Robotaxi could be spun off into it's own separate business and if so, what would the impact be on anyone holding TSLA stock?
Thanks for sharing. No unless Govt wants to break them up. The when this happens, the sum of the pirates is greater than the whole so u do even better
Of Mondial importance! TY James !
Amazing stuff James. Thank you.
love the 'robotaxi implications' mind map. esp the potential impact on high end vehicles and 'increased cost for status'
Good Sunday great info keep adding to my Tesla bag as I can Thank you Sir.
I am amazed by the fact that even professional traders and TA specialists are saying Tesla is not a buy.
Aren't these guys supposed to be forward looking? Why they are not thinking of a buy during all this negativity is just beyond me.
And I don't even agree on the TA btw.
Wanted to buy Tesla during the low in December 2022, but didn't.
This feels like a second chance. It's a big gift!
As a Tesla investor, leased a model Y for 2 years. Fast car, but Safety Score inaccurate so far, fsd doesn't meet expectations. Hits brakes when nothing in front of car. Gets confused in multiple lanes, as well as, turning. Battery depletes quickly..... many other deficiencies. Hopeful of improvements, but definitely adjusted expectations to waaaaay in the future.
Brilliant!!!
Great work James!
I think this is the most importand video that I have seen. Thx.
I’ve followed Tesla since 2013 and after seeing many interviews of Elon about keeping his company from going under (Risking ALL of his $$$$$ in 2009 and MOVING INTO FREMONT FACTORY in 2018) he never mentioned FSD & when he finally talked about it and revealed it’s been in the works all along it became obvious he was doing this Way Ahead of anyone. I bought TSLA 2019 and have been on the conflagration of a roller coaster through crazy 2022 and my patience has worn thin and suddenly out of nowhere his Robotaxi announcement 📣 on Friday; he’s sticking his neck out and I hope this happens but Elon dude; is this really it? I was stunned when I first heard he’s been planning FSD All along. Nail it Elon!
Thanks
Excellent information. Thank you very much sir
Such important insights James. TY
Hi James, based on that second model would you say that buying Tesla today could equate to buying Bitcoin back in 2011 and then going to today’s evaluation. What would one do to not go back to 2011 and buy bitcoin in the 100’s. But Tesla seems to be literally giving people a second opportunity!
Come on buddy 😂
As much as we all love tesla, you're asking for the company to reach about 35 trillion in market cap.
He would need to colonize a couple planets first to grow that customer base
@@kimeriksson7445 but the “customer base” per the models were about 5 million cars (robotaxis). Did I read that wrong buddy?
Bull prediction price on his Tesla retirement video for TSLA was ~8k. (2030)
All I can say.
Awesome stuff James! Been loading up on this gift of a pullback...💥
Hope you enjoy it!
excellent james thanks
The whole plan for robotaxis specifically is to reduce, then eliminate private car ownership. You literally live in a C40 city that has written this into their mission statement.
To get an accurate forecast for the industry you have to greatly reduce, or essentially eliminate, private vehicles, while adding the revenue for shared transport.
With all the valuation models for Tesla's other business units, how do you come up with the figures if they haven't sold one? What is the true market for Robotaxis?
Cern and you are a great team.
Thanks boss, I hope I still have time to stack more.
Is robotaxi worth as much as IA? Maybe...
Thank you James
haha too cute, nahhh I am just an avg nobody
Wonderful : thanks.
TSLA and SOL currently hanging in the 170 - 180's range. Which horse wins over the next 6 to 12 months?
Thx James. 🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Love your show! Tesla is the best investment ever!
I need a mind maps for the mind maps - seriously this provides real clarity of thinking
Thank you !!
At 19:55 the revenue from Automobiles increases each year into the future along with a second category of Robotaxi.
Is that correct?
The Table appears to "double count" items because it places a valuation on components AND assemblies and then sums them together on the bottom rows.
Thanks James Tesla is my ace in the hole 🚕🤖
Thx james
Grazie mille
Great video, thanks.
Interestingly, just spoke to a chap I know who owns one. I asked if he were excited. He said he wants to remain in control of the car. So need to bear in mind how many will not switch.
TSLA!! Wish I had more!!
Mind blowing. Tysm. PE of 60 though?
rem PE is driven by growth.... no growth companies get 20
They announced this to prop up the stock James 😮
Don’t have a Tesla mainly because It doesn’t fit my lifestyle but I love the model Y. Only Tesla I like. The problem the entire auto industry faces in my opinion is the rapid debasement of the currency making autos much more expensive in the future. You only a limited market that afford a new car and I don’t know anyone that uses taxis except for an occasional Uber ride when needed. Repairinf the currency repairs the stock price in my opinion. I want to buy the stock but from what I see coming and the amount of cars on every lot I pass….i don’t see the stock going exponentially anytime soon. Robo taxis are anti freedom if the govt requires them eventually ….anti freedom goes against my values. But on the other hand if you can buy at $150 and sell for $1000 in 26 ….that gain might buy you some freedom to move to Argentina but remember the same govt wants to tax your capital gains at 50% too. More anti freedom. Also one has to take into account the energy and infrastructure needed for this dystopian future of serfdom. We lack $20 trillion dollars in the infrastructure needed. From what I read just these high nvidia chips require a sh$t ton of energy and too many in one state can bring down the grid. It’s a full dystopian future, however making $ will important. Also remember the govt hates Elon. They don’t take him down YET because of SpaceX. Love Elon.
I couldn't help but notice this timing, too... $160 is a key support level on the weekly. Even so, still loading up on the stock and believe Tesla is the best AI play.
@@CryptoLikeWhoa it could be the play. I think they’ll be a fairly decent AI duo to start positions in. I pray for recession to start that dip but I think yellen and c on congress has chosen we won’t hit recession under this socialist govt. some people I follow that use algos say $147-8 is the level so you’re right on. I’m just super glad I didn’t listen at $245 how big a steal the stock
Was. In and out in the 220s and then saw the writing on the wall for lower so I’m just in waiting mode
Tesla stock was about to fall of a cliff due to delaying $25k car, Elon had to announce something
I disagree. The stock had already rebounded after Musk posted that Reuters lied.
Amazing videos thanks James. Everyone should aim to buy 100 Tesla shares if possible! Hope to be able to this year, hoping price stays low for 2024!😂
I would even prefer to pay for these insightful decks !!
Love you James and all you do for the community. Not a Tesla hater. In fact been waiting for the correct entry point and sizing but I view this love for the robotaxi and in the future there will be no need for car as totally dystopia. Destroys the American dream. No one today grows up thinking …..I can’t wait to grow up to be dependent on a driverless taxi. Either way it’s coming and it will destroy freedom and liberty in most cities which is anti American. Please understand ….Elon is one my favorites and him buying Twitter is far more important than Tesla stock by a long shot. Still, even though I pray to god that I’ll never be reduced to owning no car , no my kiddo….i still plan to buy the stock at some point lower than here. Probably post Q2-3 earnings.
Also ….the geo political risk is super high right especially after Blinken wants to fast track Ukraines men membership in nato. Thats basically a declaration of war by the US if you ask me. We’re on the brink of a hot war anyway and that’s dangerous for the US infrastructure and fuel supply since we’ve imported many from all the countries that hate us into the Country. The US has to weaken the dollar to stay out of war in my opinion but seem to doing the opposite by strengthening the dollar. It’s something to watch in the coming months and years.
Think globally….all people do not love cars like USA does. So just think about it….
Cars are the American Dream? So 20th century boomer.
@@peterschattmann8298 they are part of the dream. House first then car. Dystopia wants to take them both away! Boomer all friggin day! Can’t own a home without a car in my opinion. If you can then all Tesla owners should sell theirs and just be robo customers! I’ll wait
In awe of all the work, dedication and knowledge!
Thank you so much, James.
❤❤❤
Glad you enjoyed it!
Amazing!
Loving it
Shame that insurance price pressure will make owning a car a luxury. I hope something else will come along to counter that.
Show me that you will stand in front of one and survive the results of its FSD navigation. Show me how it deals with "STOP" signs on the sides of school buses.
InvestAnswers, I love your channel so much, I just had to subscribe!
Welcome aboard!
The problem with FSD is the massive tech breakthrough required. Frankly, we're not there yet in level 5, so this seems very premature.
Vandalism could be a problem with unsupervised passengers. Hopefully misbehavior is being accounted for in the design.
What about incurable flaws of vision-based systems in the snow, heavy rain and fog? What about double parked cars, heavy traffic roundabouts with very complex lane changes and no markings? Lack of low sightline vision/Potholes? Strangers damaging those expensive interiors if you rent out? Everyone needing a ride at the same time in rush hours/need for redundancy causing underused fleets? Many much heavier (batteries) cars causing more damage/potholes... necessary taxes to fix? Huge increases in atmosphere pollution due to tire wear recently discovered in studies of heavy electric cars? Massive shortage of raw materials for electric car ramp up to anything near numbers of ICE vehicles? Massive cost (and materials) shortage for build out of electrical/charging grid/power infrastructure?
James your a legend mate
I invested a lot into Tesla because you have been carrying on about it for so long. That money could have gone into BTC or Solana and so far its a freaking disaster. Getting Cathie Wood to back up things is also a huge concern.
Whats the ticker?@Christine_perkins13
I was all in on bitcoin but now I’m wondering if Tesla may be making a turn. We’ll, not all in per se,
But was thinking btc was the next hard asset.
17:10 Not sure that more people in individual vehicles will mean less traffic, even if those cars are autonomous. They still require space etc and a but holding 80 people is always going to take up less room than 80 robotaxis with 1 person in each. Traffic could actually get worse with more people taking trips and using robotaxis.
I wonder if a robotaxi will be able to get to my climbing/backpacking spots! Are they 4x4? Scary to think private vehicle ownership would be a luxury.
How would a Tesla robo taxi be better or cheaper than Uber for the consumer?
Can operate without sleep and no union threat.
2/3 in BTC
1/3 in TSLA
Am I diversified ?
Everything they announce arrives 2 yrs later. Same story here I’d assume if not longer w/ regulations
The Cyber truck took 4 years, and FSD took... well it's still not here yet, ( in 2015 it was first promised for 2017).
5-10 years.
How does it drive in a snow storm in Quebec? Or just in winter when there are no lines painted on the road? Like to see those stats. I hope it works well in winter...