May I-Bond Rate Prediction | What Is The I-Bond Fixed Rate Formula?

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 พ.ย. 2024

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  • @DiamondNestEgg
    @DiamondNestEgg  7 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

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    7. The Decumulation Phase
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    >>>>>>>>>>
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  • @MrRudy235
    @MrRudy235 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +13

    March inflation rate came out at 0.65%, a bit higher than expected. The variable rate for I-bonds for May 2024 to Oct 2024 will be 2.96%. This makes the purchase of I bonds in April preferable than investing in May.

  • @KrochmalResnikoff-ou5qs
    @KrochmalResnikoff-ou5qs 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Jen is my superhero when it comes to explaining whats happening in the bond world. Thankyou for clearing up much confusion.

  • @MikeyV-xz1lf
    @MikeyV-xz1lf 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +16

    I did what Jen did in January. I sold my 0.0% fixed rate in early January and bought the 1.3% in late January. I will do the same next January. I agree with Jen that it could be around 1.2% That's for the Great Videos 👍

  • @runningwithscissors4993
    @runningwithscissors4993 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you so much for all of your helpful videos. You do a great job of explaining concepts that are have real impact on viewer's financial lives. Also the videos inspire me to save more and that is a great thing! cheers!

  • @wallace_n_gromit3180
    @wallace_n_gromit3180 6 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    The March number came out to 312.332 higher than Jen's projected 312.132!!! So the 6-month I-bond Variable rate will be higher than her projected 2.83%

  • @marcuspaz24
    @marcuspaz24 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Thank you for making the fixed and variable rate analyses comprehensible, Jen. Looking like April for sure. Will catch the update after the 10th to lock in. Mil gracias!

  • @ugot1try
    @ugot1try 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Even though i think i-bonds will underperform over the longrun it gives me a level of security for my rainy day fund that is very nice

  • @poolmilethirty2859
    @poolmilethirty2859 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thank you Jen, you're the best. I cashed out my .00% fixed rate IBond but hubby doesn't want to cash his due to paying taxes on interest.

  • @keithmachado-pp6fv
    @keithmachado-pp6fv 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    Great video. Even if they round up to 1.3%, the variable rate is coming down, so I am going to buy gift bonds in April.

  • @richm9195
    @richm9195 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    It's great to see that you are back online. I also cashed out my old I-bonds (in Dec), and replaced them with the new 1.3% fixed rate version. I've also been experimenting with TIPS, having bought some 5y last June (1.25% rate) and some 10yr this month (1.75% rate). They are certainly very complex. I am looking forward to you coming up with a simple way of analyzing them in a future video. LOL

  • @cathydillon2927
    @cathydillon2927 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    oh I love the way you lead me through your spread sheet about the 65% EXCELLENT!

  • @paulj2948
    @paulj2948 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Great video, Jen. You put a lot of work into this. We appreciate it! Glad I bought my 2023 ibonds in January at a high fixed rate.

  • @catydee6241
    @catydee6241 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you for another informative video, Jen! I redeemed $10k of 0% Ibonds in December 2023 and another $10k of 0% in January 2024. Based on your prediction, I will likely buy $10k in April to capture the 1.3% fixed rate. Those will be a 2nd tier EF for me, but I hope to hold them for at least 10 years if I don’t need the money.

  • @mr.j2776
    @mr.j2776 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Sold six older I-bonds with a 1% fixed rate (2005 issues). Bought seven new I bonds.

  • @mariaaguado-c9n
    @mariaaguado-c9n 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    The passion is infectious,...you go girl!

    • @Fatbodypyle
      @Fatbodypyle 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Infectious

  • @BruceLR57
    @BruceLR57 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I'd like to take a look at regular T's and other government's performance of various maturities over comparable periods to TIPS and I-Bonds. How has the overall inflation protection worked out historically?

  • @caesar.augustus
    @caesar.augustus 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Excellent video!!
    My strategy will be max out the 1.30% before May to take advantage of this record rate for the long term. In the short term, I am investing in CDs that are paying around 5.30%.

    • @PowerofJustice-e4s
      @PowerofJustice-e4s 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Could you please kindly let me know which bank offers CD with 5.3% ?

  • @lydialee5444
    @lydialee5444 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    you"re the best Jen!

  • @michaelstrohecker2271
    @michaelstrohecker2271 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    My wife and I purchased $10,000 I Bonds in October of 2022 at 9.62 interest rate, the fixed rate was 0.
    That being said they are approaching 18 months and I am watching your TH-cam channel to see what May brings. I am thinking of selling and loosing the 3 months interest.

  • @DougASAP
    @DougASAP 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    We are waiting a few more days before deciding whether to buy in April or May.. We still have some zero fixed rate iBonds which we are not selling yet - preferring to minimize income this year and next to do Roth conversions during the TCJA and prior to my wife and I claiming Social Security. Your mileage may vary. Thanks for your great videos!

    • @claricehirata3303
      @claricehirata3303 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @DougASAP LOL, did you know that "your mileage may vary," is an acronym (YMMV)? I just learned it this week! 😂

  • @TheLucasFamily4
    @TheLucasFamily4 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    With 1.3% being the highest in 16 years, what does you crystal ball say about the coming 2-5 years? Thinking about a gift strategy to lock in 1.3% but dont want to do that if higher rates seem likely in coming years.

  • @michaeljin2789
    @michaeljin2789 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Get I-Bond before May, would be a better choice, perfect analyst ... Thanks @Jen

  • @randycartwright7180
    @randycartwright7180 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    These videos are great! Please continue your vigilence to inform investors.

  • @aileleor
    @aileleor 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Sooo happy that you restarted youtube. Could you please recommend some high yield CDs?

  • @rjayt88
    @rjayt88 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thanks for the information. How can I look up the performance of a 5-year TIPS bond for future reference?

  • @vince1012
    @vince1012 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I switched from those 2022 iBonds to the 1.3% fixed in Jan 2024 thanks to your recommendation. I'm maxed out so I'll just wait until 2025 to see what's best to do.

  • @Ann-yk3sl
    @Ann-yk3sl 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great video! I redeemed my 0% bonds in January, plan to buy the 1.3% this month, and perhaps some to gift my spouse, since I don’t expect the rates to go higher in May, and they may go lower. Debating whether to redeem the 0.4% ones, but holding them for now.

  • @JohnSmith-fg4ex
    @JohnSmith-fg4ex 6 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    It looks better to purchase I-Bonds with in the next 2 weeks.

  • @Huskysully
    @Huskysully 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Jennifer, you are the best. Thanks for all your videos and info.

  • @MaryMc-oq2rs
    @MaryMc-oq2rs 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The March CPI is out and comes in higher than expected. That means the inflation rate of iBonds issued in May will be higher than the projections in this video.

  • @michaellittle1010
    @michaellittle1010 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    It looks like your team has cracked the fixed rate formula! I have been gradually redeeming 9/22 I bonds and repurchasing at the current rate. I exchanged $5000 in December to max out 2023, and have been doing monthly exchanges of $833 in 2024. I’m waiting for the new inflation rate to decide whether to exchange in April or May and how much. I may max out this month from the looks of things.

  • @ddyoder
    @ddyoder 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    20:27 note on recent 30yr TIPs purchase, would love to see your follow up on that buy and especially your view on how TIPs complexity varies from I-Bonds. Going over how "more different than similar" would be great content and especially due to the record setting 30yr TIPs auction

  • @ledout7733
    @ledout7733 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Is schwab still in trouble today April 2024 ? Thank you .

  • @36736fps
    @36736fps 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I wish I had seen this earlier today, before I spent over an hour doing my own estimate of the new variable rate. I do not think the average going back to September is representative of the March rate. I looked at March estimates starting with the January-February average and then up to double the January-February average. I did not sell my 0% fixed January 2022 purchases in 2023 so as to spread the tax on the sale into 2024 and to spread out the 12 month can't sell period with other ibonds I have. Monday I will sell those January 2022 bonds and then decide if I want to buy more with 1.3% fixed this month or put the proceeds into t-bills or money markets at 5% or more. Ibonds were fun while they lasted.

  • @ኦርቶዶክስመዝሙር-ኸ5ቨ
    @ኦርቶዶክስመዝሙር-ኸ5ቨ 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Thank you for keep postimg

  • @justmyopinion4now
    @justmyopinion4now 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Sold 2 zero interest ibonds in March, will buy 2 new before end of April (me & hubby) just like you. Thank you.

  • @amyx231
    @amyx231 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    So… buy in may or jump on more now? Or wait for end of year? I have $5k from January already.
    CPI of March was 3.5. So maybe fixed will be 1.3% again?

  • @danielcluley870
    @danielcluley870 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Recently sold all my 0% for the 1.3% incurring the penalty. 1.3% is the highest it had been in 16 years. I will take the penalty for a good long-term hedge. Planning to add a bit more before the rate reset this month. I don't see the fixed rate going up. It may go down, it may remain the same. Buying now, however, locks the higher inflation rate for 6 months. I may be wrong and it goes up (nobody knows yet).

  • @raymann3762
    @raymann3762 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    I have a question: What is the advantage of buying ibond to buying 1 to 3 month T-bills which has interest rate close to 5.5%? Thank you.

    • @joyzz9498
      @joyzz9498 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I have been thinking about the same question

    • @g.t.richardson6311
      @g.t.richardson6311 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@joyzz9498 that is what I’m doing mix of 4 week and 8 week

    • @amywang9526
      @amywang9526 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      You do not have to pay tax until you sell it AND the fix rate will stay with you for 30 years if you hold it to maturity.

    • @nimh168
      @nimh168 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      T-bills are short term so it depends on what your goal is

    • @pdouglas3866
      @pdouglas3866 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Long term inflation protection.

  • @gilbellamy7713
    @gilbellamy7713 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Before buying an I bond what other comparable investments should you check, such as CDs and HYS?

  • @dillardhayes3612
    @dillardhayes3612 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    So is it wise to redeem I-bonds at 0% that are less than 5 years in maturity? Due to losing 3 months interest? I have 10,000 from May of 2022.

    • @KayKay14m
      @KayKay14m 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Yes, because the current variable rates are low, the fixed rate is high and you have over 2 years to go until the 5 year mark. I've calculated that your July 2021 I-Bond is now valued at $11,596 and is at an interest rate of 3.94%. If this is correct, you will lose $115 in interest from those 3 months. It will take 10 to 11 months to get that $115 back. However, it will take a little longer to outperform the July 2021 I-Bond due to the interest it was making on the higher principal amount ($10,000 versus $11,596). I estimate it will take 15 months to catch up on the total interest that the July 2021 I-Bond would have made during those 15 months. That would give you a breakeven point of July 2025.

    • @dillardhayes3612
      @dillardhayes3612 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@KayKay14m Thank You but the site was down earlier and I guessed at the purchase date. It was May of 2022.
      So not knowing how to calculate it myself, I am guessing it will be a longer breakeven date and the 1.3% fixed rate is still a better long term investment?

    • @KayKay14m
      @KayKay14m 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@dillardhayes3612 Your I-Bond should have a value of about $11,268. Selling that I-Bond will lose $95 in interest for those 90 days. The breakeven is August 2025. Since you would hold for a minimum of 15 months anyway, it would all work out. Another way you could do this to make the break-even point quicker is to buy the April 2024 I-Bond with new money, then wait 6 months (October 2024) to sell the May 2022 I-Bond. You would lose $112 in interest on the I-Bond that you sell, but by then, the new I-Bond will have made $131 in interest. Or maybe wait until January 2025 to sell and buy the January 2025 I-Bond with it depending on the fixed rate in November 2024.

  • @jimthomas1466
    @jimthomas1466 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Have the new rates been announced? If not when are they? anybody know? Nothing but questions.

  • @alexadams1627
    @alexadams1627 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Amazing prediction! Thanks Jennifer.

  • @Rock-d1k
    @Rock-d1k 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    So the current combination rate is 5.27%. If an I Bond is purchased in April how long does the Bond earn that rate?

    • @pdouglas3866
      @pdouglas3866 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      6 months.

  • @NannaMcK-si8do
    @NannaMcK-si8do 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    How can u redeem all your 0% I-bonds (even the gifted ones) at once? Also what is the % that I have made if I bought all my first i-bonds between May 1, 2022 & Oct 30, 2022 when the i-bond rate was 9.62% and I decide to sell them now (as u plan to sell all your 0% I-bonds? Is there a tax break for state & local taxes (like T-bills)?

  • @MrRudy235
    @MrRudy235 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Jennifer; you said that you would comment on the discrepancy of the rate for 5/01/2015 when instead of 0.10% it sets to 0.00% (when it should have been 0.10%). at minute 9:16 of the tape. Did you get back to the explanation/comment about this anomaly? I would love to know.

  • @joshuaremba8261
    @joshuaremba8261 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    That 65% number is pretty darn good for a quick rough estimate

  • @Jim_in_Ind
    @Jim_in_Ind 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I already bought I bond maximum this month

  • @Golden.5555
    @Golden.5555 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Cant wait till the laddering video

    • @DiamondNestEgg
      @DiamondNestEgg  7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Hi! This is one of the videos from our Bond Masters course which you may have already seen. If you don’t want to wait, try this one instead - it’s even more comprehensive (start from minute 1): Bond Laddering In Times Of Uncertainty | Bond Masters Sneak Peak: How To Build A Bond Portfolio
      th-cam.com/video/ym2DI5ztUwA/w-d-xo.html

  • @geoffcohen6062
    @geoffcohen6062 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    i currently have $10k of ibonds at the .9% fixed. i plan on buying another $10k ibonds in april to lock in the 1.3% fixed rate. Given what your guess is, the odds are probably not good for the fixed rate to go above 1.3%.
    i am curious: i recall you had another way of predicting the fixed rate similar to how you predict the variable rate (average of each of the last 6 months?). How does that formula compare with the 65% formula and what did it predict for the May 24 rates?

  • @eatoatmeal
    @eatoatmeal 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Very helpful video!

  • @slumdogmusic1
    @slumdogmusic1 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    outstanding video

  • @ddlatt
    @ddlatt 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you for another very informative and helpful video! At age 70, I have 30K in I-Bonds, 20K of which are at 0% fixed rate. This is my only inflation protection account, so is it a good idea to keep the 30K in I-bonds and purchase more in April, rather than redeeming 10K to purchase the 20K in April? Is keeping the 0% I-Bonds a bad decision if one is trying to build up inflation protection? The rest of my portfolio is in Treasuries and CDs, all fixed income. Thank you!

    • @DiamondNestEgg
      @DiamondNestEgg  7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Good morning! It's Eva - I sent this to Jennifer & she said:
      "First, you can't buy $20K in April (with just one SSN) so you need to do this with your SSN & your spouse's SSN ($10K each).
      Second, it's not a bad decision, the questions are - could there be a better decision & have you considered TIPS?"
      Basically, it's complicated & she really can't dive deep into this in the comments section. I'm attached two forms below to submit your question for the next Bond Masters or Member LIVE (replays available as always)
      Here is the one for Bond Masters (LIVE is on 4/9 @5pm): forms.gle/agi7U8GqymY6mqfN7
      Here is the one for Members (LIVE is on 4/16 @ 6pm): forms.gle/caABzucn2mS2XCzu7

    • @ddlatt
      @ddlatt 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@DiamondNestEgg Thank you, Eva! I will submit my question for the next member live.I made a typo in my question and should have typed 10K instead of 20K. I've considered TIPS, but they are way too complicated and upsy-downsy for me! Looking forward to Jennifer's next video! I've learned so much from her and am very grateful.

  • @monarene44
    @monarene44 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    My Vanguard Cash Plus account is giving 4.70% this month so I’m not expecting the combined fixed and variable I bond rate to be much above that. Some bank CD rates are in the neighborhood of 5.25% and I bond rates tend to stay neck and neck with those or slightly higher.

    • @piggsinablankie
      @piggsinablankie 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I've been in the Vanguard Cash Plus account too for a year and a half. Great account and insured up to 1.25 million. Although just recently I pulled some money from that and put it into the Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VUSXX) giving 5.27%. That and straight T-Bills is where I have a big portion of my cash. I recently pulled all money from the I-Bonds, and don't think I'm going back into them. The 1.3% fixed rate is nice, but inflation is excepted to come down further, and the T-Bills just work better for me not locking my money up for too long.

  • @Cygnustheswan52
    @Cygnustheswan52 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I was wondering if anyone happens to know when the EE bonds video in Bond Beginners will be ready.

  • @pauljoseph2400
    @pauljoseph2400 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    There could be an election year "surprise" fixed rate, but that would probably occur in November - 5 days before the election. I'm holding on to my old I bonds from the early 2000's with high fixed rates, but liquidating the others with low or zero fixed rates. Some are predicting a recession with deflation which is not a good scenario for I bonds. For new purchases, I'd rather have a 20 or 30 yr bond returning 4.5 % than a mystery I bond rate. It all depends on what you think will happen with inflation.

  • @mariaaguado-c9n
    @mariaaguado-c9n 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    based on your calculated projections, and my confidence in you I'll buy in late April.

  • @robertpresscott6608
    @robertpresscott6608 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thanks Jen

  • @John-mk5bj
    @John-mk5bj 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Would you buy and gift in April @1.30%

  • @georgel8358
    @georgel8358 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Any opinion on selling 0.4% fixed rate I-bonds?

    • @KayKay14m
      @KayKay14m 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      It all depends on the number of months until an April 2024 I-Bond outperforms a November 2022 I-Bond (assuming that's when you bought it). If so, then your I-Bond should be valued at $10,881. I believe your breakeven point would be about January 2025. At that point, the April 2024 I-Bond should make up all the interest lost due to selling the November 2022 I-Bond. Not just the 90-days that you lose, but also all the interest in those 9 months. After that, the April 2024 I-Bond will outperform the November 2022 I-Bond.

  • @Abraham.Lincoln22
    @Abraham.Lincoln22 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    👁️ Bonds, baby. 👍

  • @jimmywalters3071
    @jimmywalters3071 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Is the interest earned on I bonds tax free of Federal and State Income taxes ?

    • @pdouglas3866
      @pdouglas3866 6 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      State.

    • @jimmywalters3071
      @jimmywalters3071 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@pdouglas3866 Any state ?

  • @bdunni88
    @bdunni88 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Why is anybody buying I bonds at 4% when you can get t-bills for 5% plus?

    • @pdouglas3866
      @pdouglas3866 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Long term inflation protection. Especially if you buy them with a relatively high internal fixed rate, as has been the case for the last 5 months.

    • @bdunni88
      @bdunni88 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@pdouglas3866 t-bills will be high until inflation goes down. The FED won't cut rates until inflation has been down for quite a while

  • @danielcrespo43
    @danielcrespo43 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Can I buy both. 10k ibonds for myself AND gift 10k ( without delivery) ibonds to my wife in April?

    • @TheLucasFamily4
      @TheLucasFamily4 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Yes. My understanding is that you can buy as many gifts as you'd like so long as you only deliver $10k each year (and no other I bonds are bought by that person in those years.

  • @joweb1320
    @joweb1320 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Can you buy 10k in i- bonds and 10k in EE- bonds the same year?

    • @Abraham.Lincoln22
      @Abraham.Lincoln22 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      No

    • @sueh6287
      @sueh6287 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Yes!

    • @joweb1320
      @joweb1320 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@sueh6287 one no and one yes

    • @DiamondNestEgg
      @DiamondNestEgg  7 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      Yes, you can (scroll down to the second question): www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/how-much-can-i-spend-own/

    • @joweb1320
      @joweb1320 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@DiamondNestEgg Thank you! You are the best!

  • @johnf6687
    @johnf6687 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    James Bond 007

  • @anthonylamura8600
    @anthonylamura8600 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    My head hurts ......

    • @r.c.s.j9774
      @r.c.s.j9774 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

      😂

  • @willardjones4070
    @willardjones4070 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Fixed rate may go down a little?

  • @charlottez9890
    @charlottez9890 7 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Feel like the inflation rate is far below real inflation in our daily life