Just popped in to say that thumbnail killed me, LOL! I will come back and watch the video after this next meeting, can't wait. Was just thinking about getting into some baccy dividend stocks. Keep doing awesome work Cameron!
AWK (American Water Works) and NextEra Energy (NEE) would be great for utilities! Waste Management (WM) and Republic Services (RSG) would be great too for industrials!
@@DapperDividends , I don't know. You tell me. What starting and ending points on the chart are you choosing? At the time this video came out, it was at 49.44. Has it gained 35% since then?
Amazing video. You are amazing at what you do Cameron! Is it possible in the future video of your analysis... is if a company pays a dividend.. are you able to do a quick valuation to see if they can pay that dividend or say if its on Borderline risk? Just a thought.. no complaints tho.. I wish you can upload more!
Hi Cameron, enjoy your videos. I'm not finding the same numbers in the 10-k though. Rev is 26,013 for 2021 in the 10-k, but your table shows 21,111. Not sure what I'm missing here?
Really really appreciate your work, Cameron, so thank you for that! But I have two points to criticise: - Unfortunately, concerning this specific company you didn't take into account that global tobacco-consumption is on a trend to decline. To me, that shrinks the otherwise rosy prospects for future earnings. - Second, which is a general criticism, you never seem to do a sector-comparison. For instance, comparing Altria to Imperial Brands or so would be interesting to assess the position the business is in or the pricing power it might have.
To your first point, the rate of decline of global tobacco consumption has been relatively the same for decades. In 2020 there were still 35M smokers in the US. By 2030 that number will be somewhere between 30M-31.5M. By 2040 it is projected to be between 25.5M-28.3M. By 2050 it is projected to be between 21M-24M. In the meantime, tobacco is a highly addictive product and has strong price inelasticity. When you raise the price the demand doesn't fall off. Altria has been generating mid-single digit earnings growth by raising prices IN SPITE OF the decline in tobacco consumption for quite a while now. Unless the fundamental regulation of tobacco markets is changed in the US then there are decades to go for Altria to continue growing earnings on just the legacy products alone. As to comparing Imperial Brands to Altria it's non-trivial. Altria only markets its products in the US (PM was spun-off in 2008 to deal with international markets). Imperial markets globally and is subject to a much broader set of regulations, taxes, etc. across the many countries they market in. It's not going to be easy to get a clean breakout from Imperial so that an apples-to-apples comparison can be done.
Awesome video! Thank you for doing a follow up on Altria. This company is a cash cow. I plan on holding it for a long time and reinvesting the dividends. Any thought on doing an analysis of Markel (MKL)? It’s a mini Berkshire Hathaway. Thanks!
Can we get an IRR on Aerotyne International ? Its a cutting edge high-tech firm out of the mid-west. Right now their awaiting patent approval on the next gen. radar detectors, huge military and civilian application....
Very interesting, on dividend stocks like this can you also do a segment on effects off dividend payments and stock buybacks over time, similar to what you did for Unilever?
How do you factor-in the risk of their product being increasingly more regulated, fewer people smoking, and the fact that many funds now refuse to buy tobacco stocks due to ESG? I think there's a good reason why its cheap.
Realistically how does FCFE benefit me as a meager shareholder? I understand the enterprise may increase their cash flows over time and have a booming business. However if those cash flows aren't paid out via dividends how can I consider FCFE as part of my return on investment?
Because u are the owner. If u work a 9-to-5 and are paid via direct deposit, is the income yours even if u don't withdraw/distribute the money from your account?
Hello my friend thank you for this update and for this channel. I tell my friends about you. Perhaps updates on some more blue chip companies whos stock price has fallen would be great. Have a nice day.
@@CstewartCFA what is the reasoning to deduct this? is there a rule of thumb that can be applied to other stocks as well? My argument is to use net revenue as stated on the top line for all stocks to be consistent
I also try to follow up on your numbers, looks like you missed a few ST Debts (2017&2018) and maybe have some typo somewhere in the 2015 Debt (at least I am off of your number by some million). My big question is why you do not have excess cash? In the balance sheet for 2021 I see 4,544 for example in line Cash and cash equivalents same goes for the other years. Is there a reason for this? I also checked your last video on MO and there you also have no excess cash there (btw. you also have completly other numbers in the older video)
@@chrisreicheHopefully my explanation can help a bit. From what I understand, while the cash and cash equivalents are the most liquid currency the company has on hand, It is not counted as 'Excess Cash' because all businesses need some amount of money to run day-to-day aside from CAPEX that isn't tied up in investments with lengthy maturity dates. For example, imagine you had employees on payroll, you couldn't say, "just hold on, I'll pay when my stock play reaches it's target price. They need that money asap or you run into issues. another way to look at is that the average person own things of value like furniture etc, buts you wouldn't necessarily say whats in their bank account is all 'excess'. To use all of C&C eq would not be as accurate for a forecast. He explains this a lot better in the course so I would recommend that. When he does use excess cash they are usually ' marketable securities'. Hope that made sense, I still struggle with finding excess cash myself because I find only bigger tech companies make what is excess obvious enough. To be safe i usually leave in blank.
@@silversoul5285 thanks a lot! I will still net out debt and cash but I will think about what you wrote. maybe it makes sense to deduct capex (or something else) from cash and see if there is some leftover
I loaded up in Jan 2021 with an average basis of $40. If they average 5% dividend growth a year and modest price appreciation (lower the better for dividend reinvested actually), I’ll have way more than I need when I retire in ~15 years.
When you get a chance, look into SOFI for a review. I've heard a lot of positive takes. Currently trading at ~30x revenue. Analysts all project 40% higher price target than it's current value (meaningless but hey.) COIN, VYGVF, are interesting as well but are coupled to the crypto market which is terrible in a rising rates environment.
Outstanding rewards, no doubt but based on a product that causes cancer. No thanks, there is a moral aspect to investing also. If you only look at data you miss a part of the risk picture. This business can go down rapidly if laws are changed regarding smoking. We should protect people against these kind of products, same for fast food chains that creates obesity in the western countries. New style investing takes these risk in consideration. So I advise to take a serious margin of safety on these kind of stocks. If dividend is cut it can get ugly fast.
Smokers are a stubborn bunch! But I don’t know one smoker who wouldn’t proudly walk to the bank with a smile on their face to cash that dividend check! They know how the story ends every time they light up, but every one would be happy to get that money back!
Here's the problem with MO....They are steadily losing customers and will have very little to zero growth for the foreseeable future. And they are carrying around 27 billion in debt...No thanks! I want to own companies that are GROWING CUSTOMERS....NOT LOSING THEM..
@@naelueplays1047 It's not disappearing, but users in new generations are drastically reducing. Where I live just ten years ago 12% of people between 16-24 smoked, now it's down to 1% and still dropping.
@@CC-ed7jr Yeah I get that but it will still be around for a while. Most likely well after we are both gone lol. Cigarettes are very addicting. Trust me I know a lot of people around my area who smoke. I don’t smoke personally never have and never will.
Subscribing to the cash flow club was one of the best decisions that I have made !
Just popped in to say that thumbnail killed me, LOL! I will come back and watch the video after this next meeting, can't wait. Was just thinking about getting into some baccy dividend stocks. Keep doing awesome work Cameron!
Can you please do an update? Great video, Thank you!
Lots to look at right now, maybe later
AWK (American Water Works) and NextEra Energy (NEE) would be great for utilities! Waste Management (WM) and Republic Services (RSG) would be great too for industrials!
$MO is a table pounder here at 41 on 7/2/2022. That is where my next paychecks are going to.
really appreciate your work, Cameron. if e buy today it is very attractive @41.00
Please analyze ASML.
The chip equipment manufacturer with the biggest moat.
Great video!
They’re also very inflation proof!
Really enjoyed this Cameron….. not to mention the cherry on top - 10 years worth of dividends!
Love Altria and I’m holding indefinitely. 👍
no
The stock went down about -10% almost a year later.
@@LouGator But it eventually recovered, right?
@@DapperDividends , I don't know. You tell me. What starting and ending points on the chart are you choosing? At the time this video came out, it was at 49.44. Has it gained 35% since then?
@@LouGator No it hasn’t. I barely remember commenting on this and so much is going on, so apologies for any confusion, Lou.
Can we get an analysis of British American tobacco?
Please
Ditto!
Amazing video. You are amazing at what you do Cameron! Is it possible in the future video of your analysis... is if a company pays a dividend.. are you able to do a quick valuation to see if they can pay that dividend or say if its on Borderline risk? Just a thought.. no complaints tho.. I wish you can upload more!
Thanks for content
Thumbnail game going 💪
Hi Cameron, enjoy your videos. I'm not finding the same numbers in the 10-k though. Rev is 26,013 for 2021 in the 10-k, but your table shows 21,111. Not sure what I'm missing here?
Formula is = Net revenues - Excise taxes on products = Revenue
Can you please review UVV?
would you still consider this investment in 2023 for the long haul?
사랑해요 알트리아 현금흐름 최고
Really really appreciate your work, Cameron, so thank you for that!
But I have two points to criticise:
- Unfortunately, concerning this specific company you didn't take into account that global tobacco-consumption is on a trend to decline. To me, that shrinks the otherwise rosy prospects for future earnings.
- Second, which is a general criticism, you never seem to do a sector-comparison. For instance, comparing Altria to Imperial Brands or so would be interesting to assess the position the business is in or the pricing power it might have.
To your first point, the rate of decline of global tobacco consumption has been relatively the same for decades. In 2020 there were still 35M smokers in the US. By 2030 that number will be somewhere between 30M-31.5M. By 2040 it is projected to be between 25.5M-28.3M. By 2050 it is projected to be between 21M-24M.
In the meantime, tobacco is a highly addictive product and has strong price inelasticity. When you raise the price the demand doesn't fall off. Altria has been generating mid-single digit earnings growth by raising prices IN SPITE OF the decline in tobacco consumption for quite a while now. Unless the fundamental regulation of tobacco markets is changed in the US then there are decades to go for Altria to continue growing earnings on just the legacy products alone.
As to comparing Imperial Brands to Altria it's non-trivial. Altria only markets its products in the US (PM was spun-off in 2008 to deal with international markets). Imperial markets globally and is subject to a much broader set of regulations, taxes, etc. across the many countries they market in. It's not going to be easy to get a clean breakout from Imperial so that an apples-to-apples comparison can be done.
Awesome video! Thank you for doing a follow up on Altria. This company is a cash cow. I plan on holding it for a long time and reinvesting the dividends. Any thought on doing an analysis of Markel (MKL)? It’s a mini Berkshire Hathaway. Thanks!
Analyse Alimentation Couchetard. Very strong cash flow and growth.
Can we get an IRR on Aerotyne International ? Its a cutting edge high-tech firm out of the mid-west. Right now their awaiting patent approval on the next gen. radar detectors, huge military and civilian application....
Wolf of the Wall Street
Very interesting, on dividend stocks like this can you also do a segment on effects off dividend payments and stock buybacks over time, similar to what you did for Unilever?
1:30
or a cigar...
Hey Cameron you should drop a video about BlackRock (BLK) 👌
do Sherwin Williams or Snap-on pls! or even a comparison between spgi and mco! would be cool
AT&T/WarnerBross please one more time !
brillante, gracias.
Stock went down about -10% a year later. De nada.
How do you factor-in the risk of their product being increasingly more regulated, fewer people smoking, and the fact that many funds now refuse to buy tobacco stocks due to ESG? I think there's a good reason why its cheap.
Great video again, it would be interesting to compare PM again at this point, there's been quite a bit of movement in the stock.
Own 10 percent stake in Budweiser as well
Which they can continue keeping and compounding or hold for more appreciation and pay down/off debt.
They’re in a pretty good position.
Best thumbnail ever. Also, how does the legalization of marijuana affect the future of this company
Didn't Altria also invest like $4 billion into legal cannabis about 2 or 3 years ago?
They own interest in A cannabis company
What is going on with whirlpool? It looks good.
Cameron Stewart, CFA don’t know where you got these numbers from. 10k Revenue for last 3 years is 2021-26,013 2020-26,153 2019-25,110
They are net of the cigarette sales tax
Realistically how does FCFE benefit me as a meager shareholder? I understand the enterprise may increase their cash flows over time and have a booming business. However if those cash flows aren't paid out via dividends how can I consider FCFE as part of my return on investment?
Because u are the owner. If u work a 9-to-5 and are paid via direct deposit, is the income yours even if u don't withdraw/distribute the money from your account?
Hello my friend thank you for this update and for this channel. I tell my friends about you. Perhaps updates on some more blue chip companies whos stock price has fallen would be great. Have a nice day.
American water works pleass
Well, hopefully that doesn’t change with the news today. The article said it was bad news for long term holders the deal they are about to get into
Great analysis as always. Curious your thoughts on Tencent since you've done BABA and JD already. Thanks!
What a thumbnail lmao
Also, first!
I thought doubling debt means the company is getting deeper in trouble.
Yes if ebitda wasn't increasing as well
Revenue doubled too
10K shows revenue for 2021 as $26.01B and $26.15B for 2020 from and not $21.11B and $20.84B respectively. Just my 2 cents.
Net revenue. After the cigarette sales tax
@@CstewartCFA what is the reasoning to deduct this? is there a rule of thumb that can be applied to other stocks as well?
My argument is to use net revenue as stated on the top line for all stocks to be consistent
I also try to follow up on your numbers, looks like you missed a few ST Debts (2017&2018) and maybe have some typo somewhere in the 2015 Debt (at least I am off of your number by some million).
My big question is why you do not have excess cash? In the balance sheet for 2021 I see 4,544 for example in line Cash and cash equivalents same goes for the other years. Is there a reason for this? I also checked your last video on MO and there you also have no excess cash there (btw. you also have completly other numbers in the older video)
@@chrisreicheHopefully my explanation can help a bit. From what I understand, while the cash and cash equivalents are the most liquid currency the company has on hand, It is not counted as 'Excess Cash' because all businesses need some amount of money to run day-to-day aside from CAPEX that isn't tied up in investments with lengthy maturity dates.
For example, imagine you had employees on payroll, you couldn't say, "just hold on, I'll pay when my stock play reaches it's target price. They need that money asap or you run into issues. another way to look at is that the average person own things of value like furniture etc, buts you wouldn't necessarily say whats in their bank account is all 'excess'. To use all of C&C eq would not be as accurate for a forecast. He explains this a lot better in the course so I would recommend that. When he does use excess cash they are usually ' marketable securities'. Hope that made sense, I still struggle with finding excess cash myself because I find only bigger tech companies make what is excess obvious enough. To be safe i usually leave in blank.
@@silversoul5285 thanks a lot! I will still net out debt and cash but I will think about what you wrote. maybe it makes sense to deduct capex (or something else) from cash and see if there is some leftover
I loaded up in Jan 2021 with an average basis of $40.
If they average 5% dividend growth a year and modest price appreciation (lower the better for dividend reinvested actually), I’ll have way more than I need when I retire in ~15 years.
What a thumbnail!
Nice job. It's just hard to condone these vices. Thanks.
When you get a chance, look into SOFI for a review. I've heard a lot of positive takes. Currently trading at ~30x revenue. Analysts all project 40% higher price target than it's current value (meaningless but hey.) COIN, VYGVF, are interesting as well but are coupled to the crypto market which is terrible in a rising rates environment.
Outstanding rewards, no doubt but based on a product that causes cancer. No thanks, there is a moral aspect to investing also. If you only look at data you miss a part of the risk picture. This business can go down rapidly if laws are changed regarding smoking. We should protect people against these kind of products, same for fast food chains that creates obesity in the western countries. New style investing takes these risk in consideration. So I advise to take a serious margin of safety on these kind of stocks. If dividend is cut it can get ugly fast.
Cigarettes harm the consumer, im ambivalent about making money from this business.
humans harm humans so dont talk or write to them and stay in moms basement forever
Smokers are a stubborn bunch! But I don’t know one smoker who wouldn’t proudly walk to the bank with a smile on their face to cash that dividend check! They know how the story ends every time they light up, but every one would be happy to get that money back!
Here's the problem with MO....They are steadily losing customers and will have very little to zero growth for the foreseeable future. And they are carrying around 27 billion in debt...No thanks! I want to own companies that are GROWING CUSTOMERS....NOT LOSING THEM..
Cigarettes aren’t going anywhere.
@@naelueplays1047 It's not disappearing, but users in new generations are drastically reducing. Where I live just ten years ago 12% of people between 16-24 smoked, now it's down to 1% and still dropping.
@@CC-ed7jr Yeah I get that but it will still be around for a while. Most likely well after we are both gone lol. Cigarettes are very addicting. Trust me I know a lot of people around my area who smoke. I don’t smoke personally never have and never will.
unfortuanately, it is a Sin stock.
People make there own decisions. I’m happy I make money off of them 🤷♀️. That’s just me we all have free choice. No one is telling you to smoke.