Alibaba: Value Trap or Potential Turnaround?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 มิ.ย. 2024
- The China and Hong Kong markets are extremely cheap right now, but are stocks like Alibaba a value trap... or a potential turnaround play? At this roundtable, we discuss whether Alibaba is worth a look right now, and how to calculate its intrinsic value. We also share one Hong Kong stock that pays you a 5%+ dividend yield -- while you wait for the market to recognize its value. If you believe that China and Hong Kong will eventually rebound, then you don't want to miss this episode.
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Alibaba
08:06 Is it a value trap?
11:46 Cheung Kong Infrastructure
16:13 Risks
19:52 Dividend Machines
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Alibaba free cash flow is around 20B per year, yet mkt cap is only 175B, if they aggressively buy back around 15B a year, the share price while be multi times, now that softbank has sold, with steady buyback, Alibaba will be fine
Love your sg/china episodes. Keep the good work!
Thank you!
ML say its a absolute BUY!
Good stuff as always!
Thanks!
Omoooo finally a video on Alibaba!!! Thanks guys!
No worries!
Good day - saw this high yield fund but do not understand their term, anyone can explain
The NAV is $5around
will there be a different position while trading in Hkg or US platform?
We prefer the Hong Kong listed shares, so you avoid the U.S. delisting risk.
Can discuss BYD?
We'll think about it!
Not sure about CKI. If you want global infra, better get something like Brookfield. Equally impressive dividend growth, have been at it for a long time, still investing and growing, no need to worry about HK/China. Agree on Alibaba.. have been waiting for comeback for 5+ years now... one day ;-0
CKI (1038) is substantially owned by CKH (1). So why not buy CKH instead where their Price/Book Ratio is 0.33 & Dividend Yield is 7.24% ??
Great question! CKH is a conglomerate with diverse assets across various sectors, while CKI is a pure-play infrastructure asset. Conglomerates typically trade at a discount due to the complexity involved in valuing them, which often prevents them from reaching their full value compared to pure-play companies. Hence, the difference in their respective P/B ratios.
May be you could do one on CapitaLand Invest vs their REIT@@TheFifthPersonChannel
@kinboon3138 We recently did a roundtable on CapitaLand Investment! You can watch it here: th-cam.com/video/femN2KmqApE/w-d-xo.html
Thank @@TheFifthPersonChannel
many of CKI assets is hampered by the 2047 issue. what happens to HK assets post 2047.? this makes HK investible until this issue is resolved.
don't risk your money with this hanging over you
Great input guys... Can you put more light why you would prefer owning AliBaba stock from Hong Kong vs New York giving the fack currency risk...
We avoid the U.S. delisting risk. The HKD is pegged to the USD anyway, so any currency risk is the same.
@@TheFifthPersonChannel thanks for your input
After purchasing JD following their earnings report, I became aware of the significant decline in car sales in China. This highlighted the ongoing structural challenges within the Chinese economy. The potential repercussions of collapsing car companies on the economy prompted me to sell JD at a modest profit.
Investing in the Chinese market is complicated by the country's structural issues and concerning economic indicators. The primary risk factor stems from the underlying economic challenges in the property sector and deflation. The company fundamental is secondary.
Good on making a profit! Yes, some investors are concerned with China's macro and long-term demographic issues.
I read in an online small HK newspaper that according to Chinese government the economy is actually very/excellently good, it just looks like a decline now because China is evolving its industry from low/medium complex and quality production to very high complex and quality. I guess it is like when a store has temprorarily closed because it is being renovated and upgraded. Do think this is the reason? @@TheFifthPersonChannel😊
Going straight to the $50’s! The very definition of dead money!
how about an episode on Tencent, which i think it has better metrics.
We'll think about it!
I second Tencent
20x ebitda is 0 rates era valuation, think about it, 20x ebitda is maybe 30x pe with some rough assumptions
why you highlight for hk market. Is there a difference between us and hk market?
Yes, there's a difference between the U.S. and Hong Kong markets
@@TheFifthPersonChannel can help enlighten me why hk market market is preferred in this case?
So we can avoid the U.S. delisting risk.
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/Chinese-companies-switch-auditors-to-avoid-U.S.-delisting-risk
i heard rusmin say to call "core" alibaba hehehe
its great value if you ignore the world politics ...expecially when the world is moving to multipolarity.. then you realise it is a value trap bec US is going all out to remain as the world Hegemon..whether it is Biden or Trump... no difference
No mention about regulatory risk? A Chinese/HK company having a monopoly at a western country in a critical sector, always attracts negative attention 😂so the risk premium is actually priced into the yield
We mentioned one regulatory risk where utility rates could potentially go lower when they reset. If you're referring to the threat of nationalisation of critical infrastructure by Western governments, we think that is unlikely as that would severely impact investor confidence. However, Western governments may prevent foreign entities like CKI from expanding and acquiring more critical infrastructure. Our two cents!
Opportunity of a lifetime. Sell everything to go ALL IN!!!
Haha no. Don't do that
😆😆😆😆😆@@exploringapis4495
@@exploringapis4495. dumber dumbo retails
@ignatiusee3564 typical dumbo retail mindset
Would Rusmin consider changing his way of pronouncing China? Or has he been secretly doing a Donald Trump impression all this while..
Not to forget the biggest elephant in the room, the Chinese government.
Yes, investing in China/Hong Kong would assume someone is somewhat comfortable with that elephant.
Imvestment in China cannot ignore Taiwan issue. All China military planning and mindset towards a possible invasion. It is extremely unwise to invest in China with this looming risk. Even manufacturing supply chains that have been in Chuna for decades are shifting out so it is rather stupid for investors to.come in to buy "bargains" when the whole structure is going possibly going down. Russian stocks were also very cheap with PE ratio of 6 one day before Ukraine invasion...all the "value" investors die c..k standing!
This channnel should really wake up your idea. Look what happened to that undervalued pick called HK land please learn from mistakes ...instead of thinking withjn value investing frame work and think you are a smart contrarian. Because you are not.
Chuna? You can’t even spell China properly you think your comments could even make any sense? 😂