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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ส.ค. 2024
- So let's ask this question. If we calculat all the commanders winrate. Then make a leaderbord with all of them in order from highest winrate to the lowest. Well this is how it would look like. Here we go!
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Decks that tend to be played by newbies or people with a strict budget have a bias towards worse results.
I do think all of these tournament that I have looked at are 100% proxy frinedly. Don't take my word for it. But they should be proxy frinedly.
As a newbie to commander, I totally agree with this comment. Even with proxying I currently produce crappy decks.
@@colinstock325commander takes a while to get a feel for. My first 3 commander decks were all garbage until I finally settled on Nekusar. It’s a deck I’ve had 10-12 years and built upon since high school.
My first three were Borborgymus enraged. Totally spelled that wrong. Thraximundar. And Oloro. Just kinda threw 99 cards together and got beat every week. Now. I’ve got like 13-14 commander decks with all different builds and strategies. Just gotta find what works for you.
@@fruhlingsbilderinteresting as my krark Sak deck is like 3k
As soon as I saw Winota so low, that's what my mind went to. Winota was a top performer in some statistics project 2ish years ago.
Tivit, najeela,and kinnan are definitely skewed downwards as a result of polularity, ive played against a lot of really bad pilots and those players are definitely tanking the overall win rate. But a competent najeela or tivit is not something you want to see in your pod.
I’m sure this video will ruffle some feathers, but keep in mind it’s just what the data shows currently. Performances only seem to vary by a few percentage points, so everyone can still play their favorite deck/cards and do well. Thank you very much for continuing to break down the data in this format for us! Super informative and I can’t wait to see it progress as we have larger sample sizes. ❤️
I totally agree. Like the diff is not that big. Or between the bottom and top there is a big diff. But yes. I trully stand by play what you like. It dosen't matter THAT much.
I play kess. Which didn’t get enough for results .. I know it’s fringe. But I like the deck and I want to master it ,. I’m currently in 2nd place in my league .. its by far not the best deck but I’m comfortable with it
Then you should stay with it. You should play what you know best have most fun with.
Cope and seethe, things are better than others
I think the reason Kinnan is so low is based more on how the competitors played, rather than the strength of their decks
This is it. You even mentioned that in the video yourself. Too many noobs are playing these decks because they are told these decks are good. But they have no clue how to play them.
@@SamuelKacerikseconded.
@@SamuelKacerikIt happened to a friend of mine. Built a highly competitive stax esper deck and still struggled to secure wins and lock tables just because he was told good cards and how good that deck is instead of playing something of his style. Granted, it was a good deck regardless, but I've seen that exact same phenomenon happening
I know im one of the few. But my favorite cedh deck ive been running is Kozelik the great distortion. Playing forsaken monument turn 1 then turn 2 having him come out and drawing you all those cards you used is so damn refreshing lol.
I have tested that but it is hard to make it work good.
I love that Sisay Weatherlight Captain is still going strong, definitely gonna be my go to for CEDH when I'm ready to take the dive
We have a discord for her: discord.gg/C9PZyX2Zef
despite what whatever tier list says, sisay and jodah the unifier are juggernauts in the format.
I was going to make her because I just wanted 5 colors for mazes end. I used Kyodai from neokamigawa instead.
My guess on Kinnan being slightly low, I’d guess it ramps so hard that consistently getting the combo pieces for the win are tricky and the popularity of kinnan make him too high priority to win without a few counters in hand
I will agree to this. He can pull hate!
Looking forward to the combo & counterspell tier lists! Ranking combos themselves is an interesting new perspective.
Kinnan is another deck where it's really skill dependent. It's easy to play the deck and think you understand it, but it's only really great after you send the time to get very very good at it. There is a lot more nuance than it appears on the surface with this deck.
High ceiling / low floor
What's one example of something an expert of Kinnan deck does better than someone who is new to the deck ?
@@bobthor9647 I would start by watching some of Wounded Satellite's, the number one highest performance Kinnan player, game play and reading his primer for more. Mulliganing and game plan alterations are something that has taken a lot of time for me to figure out. To really know what you're doing there you need to spend a lot of time looking at the play patterns of the other top decks. I know I'm talking about this in a very abstract way, but honestly, it would take a lot of work to give a comprehensive guild.
@@bobthor9647choosing when to spin Kinnan, when to play Kinnan, when to hold up mana for interaction, etc.
Experiment Kraj gives me the same vibes as Kinnan in the sense that I feel like 90% of players playing him have no clue what they are doing so the deck ends up looking far weaker than it actually should.
Loved the analysis, specially including the p-values. The theoretical next step is to be able to see this numbers over time (not possible, given the amount of data) and confirm subjective observation, like the fall of winota
I am saving average winrate. I currently have 8 points of average winrate for all of these commanders. So later in the future we will see a development of things going up and down over time.
I’ve been waiting for this video thanks for all your hard work for us Mons!
Your welcome! Took some time to get this one done.
It a great deck you can shut down so many combos and decks. Depending on how you build it. With search being so prevalent in cEDH you can run all the anti hate search accept the one in red. You can run so many different combos too. She does so much plus she is your long game and card advantage in the command zone. All your library is just playing the best cards from cEDH. Even if stacks make a come back those decks just help.
So deck building also takes a part in this. I was looking as some of the lower win rate decks you mentioned in C tier (Such as Ob nixilis) and when you look at the higher win rate decks, vast majority those decks are rakdos turbo naus lists, and the ones with the lower win rates mostly don't run naus and/or have a higher deck mana value I would be interested to see a tier list where the quality of the deck build is also looked at. Also the pilot of a deck is everything, and if people don't understand the deck and are just playing it because other people win with it, it tanks that win percentage.
I do plan on doing a combo tier list aswell and in that we will dig in into card choices. Looking at ad naus winrate and such. Or well there will be more details. Also I am currently trying to figure out how to present that.
yeah that will be tricky to quantify. Also to your point about Najeela and Blue farm, I wonder if blue farm has a higher percentage of skilled players due to the decks being more complicated to play, so those new to cEDH would gravitate away from that to start and a deck like Najeela that is combat based and pretty linear would attract those newer players, causing the win percentage to drop.@@cedhtv
Cant wait to see more games going around with heliod, it takes a ton of mana to get rolling, but it really is a control monster with cz recursion until it explodes on flip.
Great informative video! A Cedh Hate piece tier list in the same manner would be nice for us Stax lovers XD.
I have a plan for that. But first I will do a combo tier list. But that will also take some time to do so.
Great work. In tournament I would play Shorikai; despite Humility being older than most players now; people still don’t understand Humility. Then in my local group I play Thrasios/Rog polymorph. Both suck compared to silas/rog turbo ad naus; but that’s ok. I like my decks. Both use polymorph as the wincon 🙂
I would be interested in knowing how did you build your Shorikai deck. Any list I could check? I'm new to the game but I already own a Shorikai deck Also, do you use Humility in Shorikai?
Ya id love to see the Shorikai list as well. I'm picking the deck up this week.
1x Adarkar Wastes (ICE)
1x An Offer You Can't Refuse (SNC:464) *IT*
1x Ancient Tomb (TMP)
1x Arcane Signet (SLD:589)
1x Arid Mesa (MH2:436)
1x Azorius Signet (SLD)
1x Blind Obedience (RVR:303)
1x Cephalid Coliseum (ODY)
1x Chain of Vapor (ONS)
1x Chrome Mox (SLC)
1x City of Brass (ARN)
1x Command Tower (BRC)
1x Copy Artifact (3ED)
1x Counterbalance (CSP)
1x Counterspell (MH2) *RU*
1x Cursed Totem (MIR)
1x Cyclonic Rift (RTR) *RU*
1x Dramatic Reversal (KLD) *RU*
1x Dress Down (MH2) *RU*
1x Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire (NEO:413)
1x Emergence Zone (WAR) *JA*
1x Emeria's Call (ZNR:317)
1x Enlightened Tutor (MIR)
1x Fellwar Stone (9ED) *RU*
1x Fierce Guardianship (C20)
1x Flooded Strand (ONS)
1x Flusterstorm (CMD)
1x Force of Negation (MH1)
1x Force of Will (ALL)
1x Gemstone Caverns (TSP)
1x Gitaxian Probe (NPH) *RU*
1x Grim Monolith (ULG)
1x Hallowed Fountain (RVR:404)
1x Hullbreaker Horror (VOW:359)
1x Humility (TMP)
1x Imposter Mech (NEC:49)
1x Intuition (TMP)
1x Island (UGL)
1x Isochron Scepter (MRD)
1x Jeweled Lotus (CMM:1066)
1x Lorien Revealed (LTR)
1x Lotus Petal (MYS1)
1x Mana Confluence (JOU) *RU*
1x Mana Crypt (000)
1x Mana Drain (LEG)
1x Mana Vault (LEB)
1x Manifold Key (TSR)
1x Marsh Flats (MH2:437)
1x Mental Misstep (NPH) *RU*
1x Merchant Scroll (HML)
1x Meticulous Archive (MKM:328)
1x Minamo, School at Water's Edge (LTC:399)
1x Mindbreak Trap (ZEN)
1x Mists of Lorien (LTC)
1x Misty Rainforest (MH2:438)
1x Mox Diamond (STH)
1x Mox Opal (SLD)
1x Muddle the Mixture (RAV) *RU*
1x Mystic Remora (ICE)
1x Mystic Sanctuary (TSR)
1x Mystical Tutor (MIR)
1x Narset's Reversal (WAR) *RU*
1x Narset, Parter of Veils (SLD:1041)
1x Otawara, Soaring City (NEO:414)
1x Pact of Negation (FUT) *ES*
1x Personal Tutor (POR)
1x Plains (UGL)
1x Polluted Delta (ONS)
1x Polymorph (MIR)
1x Proteus Staff (MRD)
1x Resculpt (STX)
1x Reshape (DST)
1x Rhystic Study (PCY)
1x Scalding Tarn (MH2:439)
1x Sea Gate Restoration (ZNR:333)
1x Sea of Clouds (CLB:605)
1x Sensei's Divining Top (2X2:398)
1x Shorikai, Genesis Engine (NEC:76) *CMDR*
1x Silence (M10) *RU*
1x Skullclamp (BRC)
1x Sol Ring (BRC)
1x Solve the Equation (STX)
1x Stern Scolding (LTR:522)
1x Swan Song (THS) *RU*
1x Swords to Plowshares (ICE)
1x Talisman of Progress (SLD)
1x Tezzeret the Seeker (ALA)
1x The One Ring (LTR:697)
1x The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale (LEG)
1x Tidespout Tyrant (DIS)
1x Timetwister (LEB)
1x Torpor Orb (NPH) *RU*
1x Transmute Artifact (ATQ)
1x Tundra (LEB)
1x Unwinding Clock (BRR:124)
1x Urza's Saga (MH2)
1x Vanquish the Horde (SLD)
1x Voltaic Key (USG)
1x Whir of Invention (AER)
1x Windswept Heath (ONS)
Great analysis!
A difficult piece of data to consider is intentional draws, but it would be interesting to keep track of. In certain tournament structures, intentionally drawing into top cut is a good strategy, so that might be introducing some noise to the data.
Great video guys!! I'd like to know what is Thrasios/Bruse winrate. And also, in the not played enough category, it'd be amazing if you could show Shalai and Hallar and Marneus Calgar winrates.
Thank u!
Would love to see this updated quarterly or something similar! Awesome video and I look forward to getting some more tourneys with vadrik to get it to S tier XD
I wonder if you have a running bell curve of the avg number of entries from all lists. To show a cross section of tier and popularity. This also can give insight to # of entries and give a realitve stat to the "Brewers Advantage" boogie man
Great work Mons!!!
I did not make a bell curve. I have thought about adding POWER to the statistics. Or well I have thought about a lot of things for this but we will see.
Now i can tell other yuriko players that they are B rate duelists with a C rate deck, including myself.
Still murdered the table on turn 4 flipping into Shadow of Mortality.
Reminds me of years ago in League when Yasuo was released. There were so many bad Yasuo players, people would argue “look at his win rate, he sucks!” But in the hands of a pro, he was nuts.
This was awesome. I am super curious as to the stats for Urza. That is my deck.
I’m just learning about the edh format specifically ( played mtg for 20 years but only played draft, standard, pauper, modern ). I didn’t realize there were so many cards exclusive to commander. Since looking into edh I can’t believe how many cards I just didn’t know existed/never seen. I wanna make a mono green stompy or infect deck asap. Gotta make it on a budget to start.
How about mono green stompy infect brother? Fynn, The Fangbearer you’re welcome!
You put in work for this one! Very good. T.y ! ❤❤❤
Thank you. Yeah it took some time.
How exactly are you calculating p-value? For example, for Kyark/Sakashima, you have a p-value of .004, however, looking at the numbers, it appears there’s 258 games, 62 wins, and 34 draws. Based on what you said, an average deck should win 22.5% of games and tie 10% of games, so that’s what I’m using for my null hypothesis.
Looking at wins, if I use a binomial probability calculator, with p=0.225, n=258, and x=62, I get a p-value of 0.3 of x>=62.
Looking at draws, if I use a binomial probability calculator, with p=0.1, n=258, and x=34, I get a p-value of 0.06 of x>=34.
Looking at draws + wins, if I use a binomial probability calculator, with p=0.325, n=258, and x=96, I get a p-value of 0.06 of x>=96.
None of my calculated p-values are anywhere close to yours
the Null Hypothesis (H0) states that there's no significant difference in average winrates between two player groups: 'WINS' (players who won games) and 'LOSS_DRAW' (players who lost or drew) in tournaments. H0 assumes that any winrate differences are likely due to random chance, not a real advantage. TWe try to statistical test checks if the data supports rejecting H0 and concluding a meaningful difference in winrates between these groups.
I think Kinnan is not higher because so many people play him. The more people play a deck, the closer that deck is going to be to the average winrate, which is 22%.
The more games of commander you play, the closer your winrate is going to be to the average winrate. And and that point more games will not change the winrate by much
Wouldn’t this also be true for Blue Farm? They are the most played but have a higher win rate.
@@ApophisMTG exactly. This shows that Tymna/Kraum are a better commander and player skill doesn't change the winrate a lot. Bluefarm is better than the rest, whereas Kinnan is just a little bit better than the rest
Oh yeah! Mardu Summer Baby ! For a Non-Blue deck Tymna / Jeska up there with Kinnan in the same category? I take it 💪🏻
More or less yes.
love those kind of videos, waiting for the combo one.
I agree with dargo thras the deck it's so good even someone like me who only 17 and play cedh for 1-2 years can make top4 in 100+ events it's 100% best midrange deck in the format
I was hoping for a video like this, as a new player I'm interested in seeing which decks have been doing well
Then I can say big welcome to the format.
@cedhtv thank you 🤠
It would certainly become more subjective but if you were to go through each comander and assign a category to each commander such as just being for colors, being a combo piece or being a draw engine and then assign a high, medium or low for being commander centric, do you think there is any clear correlation between those factors and win rate across the format?
Hard to say. I was planning on looking at patterns from this tier list. Like look at all S-tier commanders and see what that have in common.
Thank you for your updates you really help me make better decision in commander 🤓💯 you are appreciated!!
Big thank you!
Did you notice any trend with decks with AvgDrawRates either much lower than their win rate, or perhaps higher? I would expect stax decks to draw a lot, but also maybe blue decks will get draws more than losses because of counter spells? Seems like an interesting thing to dive into.
In generall you are correct. Decks with lower winrate often have higher draw rate. Not always. But also stax decks tend to have higher draw rate. Talion has a high draw rate.
I can definitely see Tayam dropping to B Tier, it's an incredible deck, but it's a struggle to play and keep up with some tables
The information aside. Very good presentation of data analysis.
Thank you!. I am really happy to read this.
New videos are best part about mondays 😁
haha thank you!
I'm curious to know a bit more about Etali. Built myself a deck but i'm still lacking some important pieces for it to really work. My group in reality plays close to cEDH decks like Korvold so I don't really have much knowledge about cEDH
So I do have a lot of knowlage of cEDH but not on Etali. There are a lot of content creators that do have some knowlage of Etali. Alan from mental missplay dose play it a bit. In generall I think Etali struggels. Gruul struggels. I have to say what I belive and I don't recommend Etali. But I also always say you should play what you want to play. Play what you think is fun.
But what I know your looking for clones. Cast etali and gain a clone and get anouther Etali trigger. That is the kinda goal with Etali. Cast etali and win on the spot. More or less.
It's wild how Atraxa is a relatively new card and it has dominated so much.
Also, nice statistical analysis! As ever-true, you're a genius on the subject :P
Yeah. I was wrong on Atraxa! Hi btw. Been a while.
@@cedhtv Hello! It definitely has! Hope everything is well :)
Yeah. Life is simple now. Finally. haha.
@@cedhtv Aw yeah! You love to hear it! :)
it only now occurred to me that in a game with four possible outcomes, the turning point of a good winrate is 25%. in a game with two possible outcomes is 50% the turning point. which is just super logical but i only found out now
Definitely excited for a cedh combo tier list in the future
Card combonations are quite tricky. But I am working on it.
Out of curiosity, where would Emry, Lurker of the Loch be on the tier list? I’ve played her competitively for a time and I’d put her in C tier. The way I built her, she was consistent and won a decent amount. However, I also play Jhoira weather light captain, and I win wayyyy more with Jhoira.
I honestly have No idea. Emry just dosen't have that many games played.
Some of the decks that are C tier like Tivit, Kinnan and Yuriko are very popular among new cEDH players. Those commanders are powerful engines by themselves, a very simple lines of play and cheaper to build. But I think the experience of a player heavily gives you win%, for a veteran it's easier to punish newbies and/or bait responses in to a real wincon.
Could you give me the Korvold stats? I need to know how my Jund boy is doing.
Korvold has 47 games played and a winrate of 19,65%
Tier lists for cEDH are kinda stupid, but it's a good format for discussing the meta, how things are trending, etc.
In generall I agree. I think tierlist is something for beginners to get a good look into the format. But I like this method. Just asking what is all commanders overall winrate and rank them after that. It kinda gives you and good overlook.
It's off topic, but i don't get it why your channel isn't bigger. I thought your vids reach at least 10-20k, i mean your content is constant, quality and divers.
I never played a single game of cedh and watch your videos from time to time since 2018. I also met you at GP Stockholm 😊 i was wondering if you still have the cavern harpy (foil)? If i remember right you bought it from out vendors stand at the end of the GP. Wish you all the luck man
I REMEBER YOU! Yeah we talked mono black dual commander right?!? I still have the Foil Harpy. In a binder somewhere. I have started to speculate that being swedish puts me outside of the american algorythm. As of why I might have less views. But I don't think much about it.
@@cedhtv yea, thats me. At the time i mostly played only mono B decks.
I still find it kind of weird you didn't get more attention through out the years. You should keep the content coming, perseverance and quality always pays off. 💪🏼
These ones are super detail oriented, maybe its too dense for the algorithm but its been a hell of a series learned a ton from this video
I think Niv-Mizzet, Parun should be a bit higher.. the deck has gotten multiple tops and even won a few tournaments in the past 2 years alone and is surprisingly good against stax decks and Blue Farm.
Im not someone who has played cedh before but i thought Tatyova was a commander that at least saw play in it. I dont think i saw you mention it at all though, why is that?
Tatyova has only enterd into 18 tournaments so fare and that is to few. She needs to see more play before we can meantion her. Like her winrate is 40% and that is crazy. But you shoulden't trust that from only 18 tournaments. Like Tymna and Kraum to this day has 1166 tournaments.
@@cedhtv alright understood. Was trying to put together my first cEDH deck and was under the impression she wasn't stacking up at all since I didn't see her.
Kinnan is kinda the babies first cedh commander. I believe that the win rate is only so "low" because he is a strong commander so it is easy to pick up but he has very high sealing. I am not a kinnan main, I just happen to have watched Tyler(play to win) speaking about it and I think ComedIan as well.
And it make sense. I was thinking of making 4 proxy deck to have on me to introduce my group to cedh. Kinnan is one of them
Kinnan is a good commander. Sure there could be stronger commanders but kinnan isa mong the good ones.
@@cedhtv who could have guessed that cheating on mana in cedh is a good thing. unbelievable :P
Hi, I would be very interested in knowing what (if any) cards seem to increase or decrease win rates within the 99. It would be very interesting, if possible, to see a similar analysis, but with cEDH staples rather than commanders.
I do a lot of those videos all the time. More focused deck techs so to say about the commander what what different winrates different cards get. You can find some on this channel.
@@cedhtv oh, awesome. I should have checked first. Thanks!
Kinnan is definitely A tier. It's lose rate is because people team up on it (as they should) and it gets hated off the table. The explosive power of kinnan is absolutely insane. Fill them with ramp and giant creatures, super easy to get infinite mana, super easy to draw your deck in these colors and just cast everything while being able to answer anything and everyting your opponents can possibly do to your boardstate. I love kinnan in cEDH. It's also the secret sauce in my Zaxara X-Spells deck.
My poor Winota gets all the hate when abominations like Kinnan exist 😢
I absolutely love playing my Prosper, Tome-Bound deck and would love to tune it enough to compete with the cEDH crowd. @cEDH TV did you have any insight into why Prosper hasn't/can't push higher?
Rakdos struggels. It is not a good color in generall. If you have any more color. Any color that would have done a lot. So I think if better cards are printed then this commander would get better.
Win rate alone is not a very accurate metric, especially when it comes to the more popular lists as they will inevitably knock each other out in tournaments. Najeela, Tivit and Kinnan are all easy S-Tiers in terms of power level.
All of those commanders play vs other commanders to. Winrate is the best option to see how good a commander is. I mean what other method would we use? With a really big sample size we will be able to cancel out player skill and the random chance of turn order and decks playing vs the wrong opponents decks and such.
@@cedhtv Ideal testing conditions would be to use the same pilots to practise and play each deck an equal number of times against each other to determine performance (which would be impractical of course) - but my secondary recommendation would be to look at the top cEDH pilots and bias the ratings based on their assessment of deck strength and meta. These players have put in very significant number of reps into their lists and can actually demonstrate a list's real strength. Taking Najeela as an example, it's average performance may not be amazing, but Memo - a well known Najeela pilot has performed with insane consistency, top 4'ing and even taking down multiple major tournaments in a single calendar year. This might point to player skill being a bigger factor than the actual decklist, but you don't see that kind of performance from most of the other lists in the B-tier.
Tasigur and Gitrog were one of the most consistent and most feared cedh commanders. Not a D tier.
So true! Well Partners happend.
@@cedhtv true Thrasios/Tymna or Tymna/Kraum became very good because they have acces to 4 color, main fact is, Froggy and Bananaman still kept their danger in the game and PwP and other cedh channels still can compete with those commanders on a 4c+ tables and still win a lot of games. I would've put Froggy and bananaman in the B tier :)
I´d be interested which spot Hinata, Dawn Crowned would take. I love playing her and am kinda surprised she isn´t even on the list here.
Hinata only has 4 games so to few. saddly. She needs to see more play before we say anything.
yea alright I get that, what would your personal opinion regarding her power level and combo potential be based on your knowledge on her@@cedhtv
I see two main factors in why decks with higher entries have lower winrates and why decks with lower entries have higher winrates.
Let's start with the decks that have lower entries. When your deck is a low percentage of the field, you have what I like to call the "rogue element". This applies in all magic formats, and what it means is that if I am playing a deck that only a few players are familiar with, then I have a clear and distinct advantage. This is especially true if the opponents are playing meta or stock lists, since I know their list and what they are capable of, while the opposite is not true. Essentially all people who brew against any meta are familiar with this concept. Lastly, there is a certain innate fortitude and knowledge gap between those who are willing and able to create a viable brew versus those that are bandwagonners. When you brew you have a thorough understanding of what the deck is aiming to do, and also which card choices and why given the particular meta.
Decks that have a higher representation in the field are more often than not piloted by those who had no hand in brewing the deck in question. People who play stock lists rarely have the insight to know why each card is selected, and subsequently lack the knowledge to pilot the deck optimally. Another contributing factor is that the vast majority of players aren't capable of playing at an above average level. You would think that the average player would get an average win rate obviously. But the knowledge gap between the top 10% of players and a player who is sitting at exactly 50% is so large that it forces those "average" players into a distinctly below average category.
I would love to see your analysis of Ob Nixilis, Captive Kingpin!
I have plans on looking into that in the future. Like a Ob deck tech.
@@cedhtv Definitely looking forward to that! I'm finding myself one of the few Ob players in tourneys and would love some outside look into the deck itself.
Thanks for the list!
Tho statistically it is not enough to just look at the p-value. Generally you will need to have around 30 entries to get a "really" statistically significant result.
Imagine this: you have a Commander with 3 games and it won 3 times. The p-value would quite likely be significant - unfortunately still not to be trusted.
I remove all commanders from the list to to few games if the games are just to few aswell.
@@cedhtv Yes, I saw that you excluded those with 3 games or so. But still there are such that have only 15 or so games. I'm not saying that I don't appreciate your efforts, and I especially want to support your statistical approach. I'm just trying to encourage you to make it statistically waterproof.
Don't worry. I am collecting data on commanders that even have only 3 games. It just takes time collecting them. But I will get there. I don't think I will eventuelly have games to showcase ALL commanders. But eventuually I will have all the major ones up there.
Hey, is there any publicly available data on this? I am a EDH player and I have strong quantitative education, I want to play a little bit with the Data.
Regards,
Everything is from EDH TOP 16 website. But I download all decklist and calculat winrate by my self. So no the winrate is not poblic it is on MY PC.
But you can look arround here.
edhtop16.com/?tourney_filter__size__%24gte=64&tourney_filter__dateCreated__%24gte=1659422080&colorID=null
@@cedhtv Appreciate the source, didn't know about its existence.
Thank you!
Just putting it out there, but even though it’s fairly new, Talion will be top tier in the near future.
I might belive that. I do think it will climbe upwards. But we will see.
yes, activate Sisay once for Boseiju and ad naus
Is Hapatra viable in your view? Would love to play my Yawgmoth deck in Commander.
Hapatra would struggel a lot I think. sorry.
lmao i like how yidris is in "too few games"
Yidris has 6 games totall.
Probly have to start look at the draw rate as well as the winrate, tymna malcom at 13% draw while zur at 27% drawrate.
Yeah some decks struggle at closing out the game.
I would love to know more about zur, I’m like 11 cards away from finishing the deck
I have some old videos of him. Some old deck techs. I don't know much about Zur these days.
What is ur opinion on Oswald Fiddlebender. I have a cedh deck with him that can steal some wins.
I don't like oswald that much. He is fine. But I think there are stronger commanders. He can sure win. I woulden't ignore him if I played vs him. A big misstake a lot of players do is that they ignore commanders they belive are casual. But I woulden't say oswald is the buggyman of the format.
Could you do a analysis of card draw cards in cedh. What options preform best.
The plan is to have a card draw tier list to I guess but that is far in the future.
Also considering draws I think that should bump up the overall win rate - if you remove draws from consideration - and ask the question: of games that had a winner that this deck played in, what was the win %?
Also there’s the reality of people playing for draws to make cuts, which probably intentionally bumps up the draw rate.
36:00 Blue farm is arguably a MUCH easier deck to pilot than Najeela. Hard to lose when you draw 34 cards in a game with 4 colors. Not saying Najeela is better than blue farm when both are piloted by equal skill cause lets face it double card draw in the command zone beats no card draw in the command zone. I just think that Blue Farm as a deck as a whole is easier and more forgiving than Najeela when piloted by newer pilots
I feel like the data would be enriched if unique players was incorporated somehow.
That is a possibility. I should also say that I do plan to make a video where I look at only the players with the best winrate and what cards they play. I do calculat player winrate and I do know "who is the best player in cEDH" (Sorry no spoilers).
But the idea is to do similar videos like I have done before but only have players with 30% average winrate in it.
How do you get 4 draws at a tournament?
Tournaments has a time limit of 75 min or 90 min. And if it reaches that the game ends in a draw. and some decks are just to midrange to make the game end sometimes.
This is very different from the one you posted in the discord? How recent was that tournament?
Yesterday. I think this tournament took place saturday to sunday and the data came out today. So yes this is super new. When I finished the set up to do this I published it on my discard like a celebration. Like "Wow I finished it, I want to share it somehow!"
Surprising how many decks shifted
I’m interested in seeing the stats on Niv-Mizzet, Parun
Niv mizzet parune has 54 total games and from that a winrate of 22,02%. So really close at getting to B-tier!
@@cedhtv Thanks! I've been running Niv-Mizzet as a "second deck" to my Blue Farm list, and I've had a lot of success with it.
I would love to know Dihadas winrate that you calculated!
Dihada has 42 games playd with a winrate of 20,95% So not that far from b-tier.
@@cedhtv sweet thank you Mons! Have a great day 🥰
Np man!
What's up Måns it's been a while since i last visited your channel hehe
Then I can say welcome back!
Grixis piles, especially Evelyn, are from personal experience between S and B tier in terms of power level.
Btw, how much of each commander win is won by the same pilot? Can you split it up by that and see?
Yes. But there are so many different pilots that we get like 5 games from each pilot give and take.
I'm building a Zur Deck and would like to know more about him.
I thought he would perform better but i like Esper and his innate mini-Tutor Ability.
He is easy to inetarct with is the short answer.
A friend of mine is about to build a Zur the enchanter deck. I’ve played against one before I believe. Wasn’t terrible to play against but he’s solid.
So, what's the typical number of blue cards you should be playing to reasonably support a pitch to force?
I think I heard something about 17. I haven't done that math myself so don't take myword for it. It is just something I hear someone say some time ago.
how does the first sliver food chain compare with all of this? Id assume the deck is at least decent, but I didnt see it in the list at all. maybe I missed it
You did not. The first sliver only has 5 games played so I haven't added it to my data yet. I guess I could but I can't stand here and say its winrate from that. So the answer is, to few games.
5:51 Wow! i'm really amazed. The Gitrog Monster was and in my opinion, should be one of the top (maybe a or B tier) because of how fast he can do his thing, and access to weird cards like Glacial Chasm. Which shuts down aggro decks. And The Gitrog Monster can manipulate this land so your never losing life, still gaining on land drops, but your opponents have to have a removal that can target or get rid of lands for them to hit. I really would had thought he'd be higher on the list, especially cause he's a 6/6 with deathtouch.
am i the only one annoyed with how prevalent Tymna the Weaver is?
Question. I’m an OG player as in when the game first came out. And come in and out over the year. I’ve played tourneys way back and did well. My older kids have really gotten into commander. I’d like to pick up a good commander deck to use. I am very adept at playing complex decks. And I tend to be aggressive. Can I drop some decent cash and pick up a premade commander deck that I can compete well with at the local shop? And with my kids. The Old Man wants to come in with a hammer deck and beat multiple opponent games. Can you suggest some deck names for me to research and look to buy? Thanks. New subscriber. Your content is right in my strike zone. I will spend holiday break diving back in. (And yes, I have a silly amount of the OG cards that lol never put in sleeves. They are shoved in boxes with my comics. The rest are in boxes that the kids rifle thru to build decks. We have a lot.)
Just to clarify…I’m about 5 years out of the last time I was into MTG. I probably have a decent amount of very good cards but I know my 3 sons and 1 daughter have rifles thru all the boxes and made their own. I have about 6 good decks I’ve kept away from them but looking for something new and strong. Thanks for any ideas.
I would recommend Najeela. If you like to play aggressive that is a good start. You will mostly pick up a lot of cEDH staples assembling and collecting cards for that deck. So if you change your mind your CEDH staples will just move to the next commander. Najeela is also a somewhat good intro commander in my opinion.
Thank you. Looking her up.
i would love to know more about shorikai
I could make a video for that one similar to how I have done before. Or is there anytrhing smaller about shorikai that I can answer now?
a video on shorikai would be absolutely amazing since there are 2 completly different versions for his deck@@cedhtv
Oh no my fattoful cattoful nekoboi Jetmir is not doing very well. I don't even know what he does but his vibes are immaculate.
I play Urza and have pretty good winrates with it. Where exactly does it fall in your data? It has some new pieces that have helped me win more games.
Urza has from 39 tournament entrys a winrate of 16,85%
i also play urza, can you share your list? thx :)
Im surprised both Kirk and urza are in c tier. Is it just because they are played so much?
No they don't win that much. The winrate for them is lower then B tier.
I really like dargo/thasios. The potential to grind advantage and also explode when you have a window is nutty. I feel it is another of the more skill dependent lists that has a ton of potential in the right hands.
What is the win rate of Shorikai, Genesis Engine?
Shorikai has 33 games with a winrate with 19.50% So not great but not bad.
@@cedhtv what percentage would you give Shorikai to make it to B tier level?
22,5% is what takes you into B-tier. Being in B-tier only means your abow the totall average.
krark sakashima has an advantage that you need to really know how the game works to play it
I'm really surprised how many cEDH commanders are from new capenna
Hummm didn't think about that.
where do you think Thalia and the gitrog monster would place?
In to few games saddly. But I would guess it will have a winrate arround 17%
Data itself are not always representative, you need to put into context. Data of this type is distorted by players not playing a lot of cedh and going to tournament with popular commander, but not always the most optimal build. For example Kinnan is very popular and often played by well... ppl like me. Even on tournaments... I am definitly underperforming that commander by simply not playing enough cedh and not knowing many decks. I do sometimes go to trounaments and affecting results of such commanders like Korvold, Kinnan or Anjie.
I have plans on doing the same but only include good players. Like "who is the best cEDH player in the world" Or who are the best CEDH players in the world and what commanders dose they play.
@@cedhtv it's never enough data, but you could already cut low performers by considering only top 25% of big and top 50% of small events. That or similar method would paint a bit diff picture. If your database actually has a Player name you could point those players based on performance ( ex.: every event finished in top 25%=3 point, top 50%=2 and so on...). Depends on what data you already have or how much time are you willing to invest in collecting those ;)
Best tier list around. Actual statistics instead of feelings.
Great minds thinks a like.
Hey Mons, what is the Draw Rate that you display?
Similar to winrate but how often a commander is getting a draw. Stax and midrange decks gets more draws then turbo decks.
So is Atraxa Grand Unifier the latest evolution of the Food Chain line? I still play my Cazur/Ukkima, should I upgrade it?
Yes Ukkima cazur dosen't have a good winrate. Atraxas is better.
Jund Rograkh ❤️
Najeela is going down because let's face it. While yes, you can turn her into Warrior Auto pilot. Yes she has turbo, yes she can do sliver type stuff. But many decks try to go for her infinite attacks and let's be honest. Isn't as dependable. And this is coming from an owner of Najeela.
I actually think her problem is that she pulls hate towards her. Like people look at anjeela and want to stop her.
@@cedhtv I mean yeah, Najeela is definitely the Arch Enemy at the table and much to do with that. Is the Swiss Army Knife toolbox that is her 99.
Sans white is my favorite decklist to watch out of s tier imo i hate rogsai because it plays like a mono red burn deck but adding green opens up so many cooler possibilities and better lines with access to worldly tutor culling ritual and even counter magic in veil sans white is by far my favorite aggro flex strategy decklist. Imo if i had to put my favorite pod together it'd be sans white blue farm atraxa and tivit seem to be the strategies i enjoy the most but i could replace tivit with a lot of other decks like mogda for urzas saga temur pirates is crazy explosive and fair or degenerate mono black phrexian mana to keep people on their toes in a cooler linear strategy than rog sai
could you give me a bit more information on prosper? Thanks so much :)