Tyler Cowen: The Rise and Fall of the Chinese Economy
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ต.ค. 2015
- A very poor country turned modern economy, China is now facing economic hardship. How did this happen? What led to its astonishing economic growth and what’s fueling its current woes? Join Tyler Cowen as he dives into the rise and fall of China’s economy.
Many of China’s current problems are rooted deep in the country's economic history. We start our discussion in 1979 when Chinese reformers introduced the concept of private property and more capitalistic incentives, privatized agriculture, and allowed for more manufacturing and exporting - all of which put China’s economy on an upward trajectory.
Along with these reforms came transformational growth. For much of the past 35 years, China’s GDP per capita has grown at about 10% per year. In other words, living standards in China doubled about every seven years.
What did the economy look like during these periods of rapid growth? High levels of savings and high levels of investment, especially in infrastructure projects. China’s economy required more complex investments too - in health care and and start-ups, for example.
A turning point for the Chinese economy came in 2009. With the recession affecting many other countries, China’s government took steps to avoid the recession and keep the economy afloat, but at a cost. Debt skyrocketed during the period, which is proving less sustainable as China’s rate of growth declines.
There’s some discrepancy over China’s current growth rate - the Chinese government claims 7% per year, but external observers predict this rate is much lower, and that China is now entering a recession. To gain a better understanding, we take a look at five specific areas in this video: the real estate bubble, the stock market bubble, the excess level of municipal debt, the excess capacity among Chinese businesses, and the risk of capital flight. When you consider all of these areas together, it paints a very complex picture and one which is proving difficult for China to manage.
Even still, there are reasons to remain optimistic. China has invested tremendously in human capital, which is one of the most valuable assets to any modern economy. These investments in human capital will certainly survive the current recession and help facilitate a bright economic future.
Learn more about China's economy with these resources: bit.ly/1LXkCi9
What should Tyler Cowen cover in his next video? Vote or submit your idea here: bit.ly/1ppr1Os
Everyday Economics course page: bit.ly/21KO9Vq
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When you showed China’s and other countries’ debt, IDK if you did it on purpose or just ignorance, but you said US debt is 106%, which is right, however this is only the PUBLIC debt, whereas for China you showed the whole debt (public, private and household). In fact, China's PUBLIC debt is less than 48% of its GDP, whereas for instance Japan's is more than 240%, Germany, Canada, UK, are all higher than China’s.
Another point you didn’t mention, again, I'm not sure if it's on purpose, but almost half of the Chinese population still live in the countryside and the CPC has said it intends to bring more 20% of them to the cities. Than I ask you? Where do you think they all are gonna live in??? As you mentioned, Shenzhen is a great example of how they successfully did it before.
Finally, China’s still a developing country and it's possible it'll take more 3 to 4 decades to become a developed one. So yeah, they're gonna keep growing for the next decades, however, on a “new normal” standard, which is 3% to 6%, and hopefully that will help other countries grow as well.
I've been living in China for a couple of years now and I've traveled from
North to South and have seen all of what I'm stating here.
There is a very interesting fact from Bill Gates foundation, in which he shows that China's cement consumption in the last 3 years was bigger than USA consumption in the WHOLE 20th century, so I guess that answers your doubt about China's growth reliability, right?
Thank you for you video anyway.
China will fail in 1979, China will failing 1980, China will fail in 1981 ... China will fail in 2016 ... now is 2018. Your forgot to upload the video for this year!!! :(
3 or 4 decades? More like 5 years to archive 24k $ ppp per capita which is the developed mark
@@spectatetodebate8408 I was being quite conservative
you are right, after 5 years!
I believe its one sided
The best analysis of Chinese economy i have ever watched this year on TH-cam
As a Chinese I'd say what he said is fairly objective and accurate. Thanks :)
That is because you accept to listen to any information, even if it criticises the situation of your homeland's economy. No offence, but Chinese people are too defensive and optimistic about their country. China has been doing well, but the government is known for exaggerating (even lying) about data and their performance.
I think China will never exist without America, their country is only couple of hundred years old, and never a great power.
China will fail in 1979, China will failing 1980, China will fail in 1981 ... China will fail in 2016(This time is for real!!! I will make it more authentic than the previous videos, by admitting Chinese can invest in Human Capitals ...) now is 2018.
Where is the video for this year!!!
This is a really excellent video. Was fair, even-handed, avoided a lot of the pitfalls ala "communist party = bad". Very much recommended for any China-watchers.
pretty informative video without the political bullshit attached.
+TasickMedia get a life, your opinion is shit anyway
Too true, and that's mostly accurate according to my knowledge, he knows his stuff, that's more than I can say for those idiots on social media who just spread hatred and bias
+TasickMedia you really need a life
Amazing video editing
+Paulo M Amazing video all round. I don't think there is a single person who walked away that doesn't have a good picture of what's going on in China.
+Mutant Baby This video is insightful, but nobody has a "good picture" of what's going on in China, including the Chinese leadership.
Great video!
I looked into this guy and seems he's a realistic libertarian, quite a rare thing! I'm not trying to be mean, just so many hurt their own cause but this guy, you'd never know he was. Very rational, calm, open minded and well informed. I'm a fan.
This is an amazing summation of the chinese economy for decades.
I was wondering how China managed to maintain such high growth with an export oriented economy while the whole world was in recession. I figured it was either fraudulent, or they truly mastered some epic turn around, from export to domestic focused. Seems maybe a little of both.
Glad he mentioned debt, because while we all focus on government debt, some economists have shown it's private debt that really drives the economy, and high levels of private debt lead to bad downturns and prolonged stagnation.
Seems the Chinese government did managed to keep growth alive by boosting domestic spending, but bubbles = debt getting too high, and now maybe will pay the price. Basically: China did a great job fast forwarding through growth, and warding off a recession, but it overheated?
This is a great example of why mainstream leftism is a bad deal. Government spending should be like oil in a car, keep it changed and fresh, maybe once in a while fix things here and there. Instead of what we have today which is let the engine run too long and we need a massive repair job (stimulus). Or in the case of China they souped it up too much and now the engine is burning up. We should have more gov investment, job programs, but no trying to stop recessions, no trying to boost demand or stimulate.
Don't know why I got this video in my feed. I clicked at it and paused it after the first sentence. This video was made in 2015 and now it's 2019. It's four years and as a Chinese, I have seen no trouble of the Chinese economy at all. My ma and pa are retired in the northern part of China, geographically sort of like Maine in the US. Not a prosperous place in terms of economy. But in the past four years, their pension has risen and last Spring Festival - sort of like Chrismas or Thanksgiving for the Americans - my ma and I went to the local supermarket every evening, partly shopping, partly just talking, you know, just some quality time between ma and son. One evening, my ma stopped at a shelf stocked with those cheap sausages and said to me, "Do you remember this crap? When it first came out in 1990 or 91, you loved it hell of a lot! But it was so expensive. It was 1 RMB per piece (20 some US cents), and that was 1% of my monthly salary. I wished I could afford to get you more, but really couldn't. Now, I could get you a carton every day, if you still want it. But of course, no one wants this crap anymore." The guy on this video said "if you'd been watching China for the past several decades... it all started in 1980s..." But I grew up during the 80s and witnessed how the Chinese economy was transformed. Reminds me of a quote from the late American political scientist Prof Chalmers Johnson in his empire trilogy, "The American political and intellectual establishments remain mystified by and hostile to the economic achievements of Asians. The real dangers to America today come not from the newly rich people of East Asia, but from our own ideological rigidity, our deep-seated belief in our own propaganda." My ma and pa aren't really well educated, and when I was with them last Spring Festival, the trade war between Trump and China did creep into our chats once or twice, and they were like, "Oh, don't worry son, we're old to remember that the Americans lost the Nam one, and you can tell you son when he grows up one day, the American lost the China one, too."
Lol at you boot licking sinos
现在是2024年，有点问题，不过还行
Mr Cowen's analysis of the Chinese economy is pretty accurate . Instead of consolidating on the growth , the Chinese government made the mistake of trying to sustain that growth through the worst world recession for decades . There is however a massive difference between over capacity and shrinking capacity like we have in the West . Once oil prizes and world's economy recovers China will be ready for those challenges while we in the West sees our major steel works close down , ship making capacity destroyed , many traditional major industries decimated , skills lost for generations to come and our investment in education eroded year on year . Our kids not being equipped to compete against the Chinese , Indians etc .
The Chinese economy might well be in trouble now and maybe in the next few years but my take on it since i was a business man that worked in Asia and Europe is that the Chinese have the resources both human and monetary to bounce back stronger and will learn from the mistakes of the past .
Make video about Indian economy
+sourav seal Thank you! You can also vote for topics for Tyler to cover next here: feedback.mruniversity.com/forums/256080-everyday-economics-tyler-cowen-on
What's great about it?
namo will fix everything
India's economy is flying ....
sourav seal they have a lot of videos. They are old but there are 50 of them
This is pretty professional video for an university.
It's a brilliantly researched, conceptualised and executed video!
What a wonderful video! Thanks a ton!
One of the best ones you have done. Great production.
That's actually really fascinating, mainly because the Chinese economic system is so different from ours, but still very similar in many ways. I really liked this video.
Very informative! Thank you for uploading :)
Chinese policy makers need to express their thanks publicly for this.
Supreb! That was crisply explained and non-partisan! Good job!
These videos are great they have such an exciting way to teach that it has intrigued me. You have made such a boring subject easy that even an artist can turn to economics well done
Even their economic is in recession ..Their GDP growth is still high as 6.9% .It still far away from fall. So many expert predict about China economic fall about 20 year since Tom Yum Kung crisis .But even now they still grow fast .
nosta nosta
I’d be seriously surprised if it was any higher than 4%
woah, that's the most pertinent video about Chinese economy that I ever seen!
"OMG they were riding bicycles instead of driving cars!!" Yeah, look at just how fucking well the switch to cars is serving them. Really strange point to try making.
+batwingedloony They couldn't afford buying a car, which cost 30 - 50 times of their annual income. This is very different from some westerners who have cars but chose to bike for exercise/avoiding traffic jam/low carbon living.
My guess would be you are one of those annoying spandex/Lycra wearing road raging cyclist in an Anglo country LOL
actually I checked the debt/gdp on 2015 .and it was only 42.6...
Very informative. Thank you.
Watching this video now, I can see how his intuition was sharp and accurate. Well, actually many economists pointed out these issues from a few years ago, but this video is from 8 years ago and these 5 problems like real state bubbles, local government's debt, etc- are so true. Amazing.
Great. Very informative. Well done. Thanks
Hi Tyler, I don't know if you have time read and/or respond to all comments, but in case you. In one of the Developmental Economics videos you said that China would become world's largest economy (although I can't remember the time frame you specified). Do you and/or most economists still believe this, or has that changed with the emergence of these problems? If it hasn't, what kind of time frame would be expected?
Thanks for all the work you've put into this channel!
At 3:50 in the video on China's agricultural reform, Tyler Cowen says that China is the second largest and that it 'may' become the world's greatest economy. But he does not say that it will become so. More importantly, this must be seen in the context of China's large population. China's GDP per capita is almost seven times lower than that of the first largest economy in the world, (which is the US), and 4 times lower than the world's third largest economy, (which is Japan).
Wow! Well done hunting down the reference! Yep, I quite clearly misremembered him on that one, probably because of my own expectations about what an economist would predict.
May I ask, however, why it's more important to see it in the context of population size? Isn't political power (which, as far as I'm aware, is the main reason for comparison between countries - Americans surely aren't worse off if Chinese living standards improve) dependent more on total GDP than GDP per capita?
Great video. It is really helpful, thanks :)
really nice video and very informative
In the Description section, please quote the references for data used, specifically, the numbers for total debt-to-GDP ratio for different countries. I find a wide variance in the numbers quoted at different places on the internet.
P.S. I noted the "data note" a little after posting this comment. The note clarifies my query.
This video is amazingly well-made
说的挺好的。thank you.
Pretty smart guy, and no politics attached. Good video!
Hola, muy buenos vídeos! Podrían traducir estos al español, please :(?
very nice video, just recomend 2 indicators i use to observe Chinese economy, the car sales data and the airline seat*miles.
The Chinese economy was the only one that reported growth last year and once the Silk Road is complete the economy will grow exponentially.
Awesome vid! Keep up the impressive work
what do u think
what steps should government take to gain the return on investment
Dear Sir, you mentioned about human capital being China's greatest strength. Any comments on the impact of one child policy and its eventual aging population?
this guy‘s reasonble is wat i like, Chinese needs to be waken from this economic bubble.
Excellent video!!!!!!!
It should be called, 'basic economics for dummies'.
You should do a update on this honestly. Also take recent census data. You are the only good economic channel on youtube. By the way.
there are several factors that add to this -first a lot of the property that was sold to foreign companies to build factories on was taken without payment from the people who owned or lived on it as the ccp just takes what it wants so a lot of the profit they made was because they sold something that didn't cost them anything. Another reason is that the numbers they have been showing haven't been accurate in a very long time this is like Enron or Bernie Madoff its all generated by the country running the same money through a bunch of times. or cooking the books so it looks like their gaining but not showing all the debt they are actually showing assuming they don't have to pay it off -the ccp in china doesn't feel it needs to play by everyone else rules they break them all the time but no nation is willing to call their bluff and thats the problem the constant growth is evidence of them not reporting the same thing like with Bernie Madoff he was getting constant growth no matter what the market was doing
fantastic educational video...
Still resonates in 2019
if China wants to keep growing... they will need FREEDOM.
A more free market, freer states within the country, freedom also on religion, politics and way of thinking!
That is fundamental.
Sound reasonable,but i hope china will have a bright future
Those 'empty cities ' problem can be solved when the rural people become urban settler, and thus filled up the buildings.
+NangongReng1973 wake up
Wang Bo In the coming years, millions of rural people will move into urban cities. You should read more on current affairs.
NangongReng1973 urbanization will decrease instead due to pollution in city
Wang Bo You have a point. That's why the central govt is racking their brains to solve this pollution problem. But Urbanisation into cities will happen no matter what because China wants to be an industralised country .And if these Chinese still lives in the rural areas, China can never achieve their plans .
NangongReng1973 not will happen, but have been happening for the past years. Remember China is the second world economy (frankly speaking, it took over USA in 2014 by few margin). Obviously, agriculture could not be enough to support this. Now ppl in the city want to change their status to rural status because as you mentioned, this industrial thing will drive the government to 'kick out'ppl in rural but will compensate loads of money which why the rural status will be more valuable in coming years( disadvantage about rural status is less medial care, less wages, etc..).
After more than 2 years from this video release in 2015, China still remains growing with no sign of recession. Maybe, we need other economic theories to help explain China.
How about MMT theory or Richard Werner theory just in case ? Or some Jeremy Rifkin's idea about China.
最中肯的赵家经济分析
Capital flight is now very relevant
you can't build economic growth over night when things happen so fast than people are not ready for that
per capta income does not match the purchasing power
What about exports ? Population is increasing so is the buying power every product we purchase some how is manufactured in China or is a chineese product over all
that's why China come up with the one Road one belt policy
MANY THANKS
What does he mean by "Startups" at 3:59?
A startup company or startup or start-up is an entrepreneurial venture or a new business in the form of a company, a partnership or temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model.[1] These companies, generally newly created, are innovation in a process of development, validation and research for target markets. The term became popular internationally during the dot-com bubble when a great number of dot-com companies were founded.[2] Due to this background, many consider startups to be only tech companies, but this is not always true: the essence of startups has more to do with high ambition, innovativeness, scalability, and growth.
Thank you very much! =) That helped a lot.
+Nora Emilie : )
+Nora Emilie what do you think of the world"s economy in general Nora? Or Chinese economy? You don't have to answer if you don't want to!
+Fernando Davila: If only I could answer you in a good way! I do not know enough about economy to freely speak my mind about it yet. That is why I took my time watching this video, to learn more about economy.
Though, when it comes to the Chinese economy- there is no doubt they've done some BIG mistakes. However I do not doubt that they can reduce some of their debt, but it's gonna take a long time and they gotta do something now. I think the best thing to do right now is taking care of their citizens, get as many people as they can in jobs, get regulated taxes, focus on their biggest and best companies, and drop the rest of 'em.
excess capacity - this must be why I products on Aliexpress or Alibaba for pennies on the dollar..
Great video! Looks like a lot of 50 centers came by to give it a dislike!
Excellent video but I am surprised that Cowen did not reference or touch on the thesis by Yasheng Huang (Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics) that details the flourishing pseudo private TVEs in the 1980s and their subsequent repression in the 1990s along with the financial liberalization in the 1990s. He is right that China's problems are due to their successes and Huang's thesis seems to be at the core as private entrepreneurship of the 1980s is what is really needed.
+James Crawford James, Thanks for your feedback and for sharing this resource. We'll look into Huang's thesis. In the mean time, you can always feel free to share contributed content on our video page, right below the video: www.mruniversity.com/courses/everyday-economics/rise-and-fall-chinese-economy. Thanks again! - Alexandra from MRUniversity
these videos are much better than going to college :]
Cheaper too!
-Roman
Its 2018 , how much wait until depression?
well informed
This would have been an interesting video with just the guy speaking. Maybe he could have included a few simple graphs if he wanted to add some visual interest. But I found the incessant images annoying and patronizing - very Chris Morris-esque!
I like his ideas, good to know the black side of the rapid growth. I am not a fan of speedy increasing in GDP. China should slow down and think about waht would be the best direction heading in next 10-20 years.
There are many good points in this video. But like most videos about China/Chinese economy on TH-cam, it focuses too much on the negative sides without explaning other positive factors in details. There will always be downsides of any policy. By structuring video this way probably will get way more views though.
You forgot to mention about the impact of that growth to its environment, their population, their values and attitudes toward other people and so much more. I hope people pursue social, human well being, environment, etc. rather than just GDP accounting. Human beings are getting too greedy. It's not just all about money.
We need a follow up post covid
Is this still the same at present ?
I`ve read a pretty good book written by Satyajit Das, it calls "A Banquette of Consequences". And yep, QE (Quantitative easing) and other financial "toys" for adults do exist. Who are the players and the who are the toys are good questions imo.
Agree with the course said. Another problem is China government has too much power, which governs all aspects of Chinese life, even private sectors must be comply and loyal to the party leadership. China economy has more features of Planned economy. So the China government can mobilize the national power like stat-own companies, banks, and party members to do what he planned as no any contrary parties existing. Chinese has nearly every life corner freedom except any criticizing the party and government. Most of news outlets are state-run, so most of news in China is very positive and bad things can’t be allowed to flow in the air. But the innovation which is considers as the key factor to drive growth of advanced economy, is disruptive to the current, which certainly China government didn’t allow this uncontrollable, and the stability of society is first priority. So key Innovations should also be under planning of the government, such as 5G, Lithography machine for chips and etc.
In the long run, China GDP could surpass US as No.1, but GDP per capita will be far behind most developed country as so much population, and it will not be leader of the cutting edge. But it will be the one who copies and catches up very quickly.
The last part was kind of funny. Earlier you mention a weakness of China is not investing in education, better medical system, etc. But at the end you state such things did happen... conflicting.
Anyways, very good analysis of China.
My personal opinion about how China, and many other destitute countries grew is primarily on the backs of very desperate and easily exploited people. And the jobs are just leaving like a game of hot potato they bounce to the next lowest crap hole, and the hot potato dropped further ago has returned to being a desperate crap pool, this time possibly angry or with the same Stockholm syndrome compliance.
Either way, it produces an aristocracy of a few with very little and often no reward for most of the people.
It becomes a race to the bottom for all workers everywhere if countries and those appointed to operate them aren't working to develop a strong domestic economy that benefits the workers. And the entire system goes into constant boom bust cycles as a few investor classes chase each other, creating booms, then first in first out and they all follow last out busts consolidating wealth into even fewer hands, driving underlying domestic income and its ability to demand even further down.
Frequent booms and busts, getting more pronounced than the last, especially concerning leverage. It's a bad system that has happened in many countries for the last 2,000+ years. It's an stable cyclical structure; often producing tyrannical governments and mostly all poor people, and often war and civil war.
As you can see, I'm not that optimistic, not just for China, but for all countries under this chase the inauthentic comparative advantage of cheap labor. We saw this in slave owning countries, and feudal peasant societies. Very unstable, and alternatives are available and perform for more people much better.
That's why China has a belt and road initiative, so that they could keep investing in infrastructure after the infrastructure in China has been completed, which could maintain employment and prevent overheating in China itself, which in turns maintains its economic growth and promotes the improvement of technology through larger r and d investment
2018 and still growing stronger
Is it? Still?
I misunderstood that this video was posted recently，the phenomenon mentioned in the video is more serious now，maybe the real recession is from now on
Resession in China now?
Impossible!
Bubbles? China already had bubbles, as USA either (really difficult) - that is not critical problem for growth.
China still didn't finish to use opportunities of catching development. Service, media, science, healthcare? especially healthcare still have huge potential for growth.
So thank to this clusters growth will remain impressive - above 5 percent - at least more than 10 years
Fall of China economy what fall? It's now 2017 towards 2018.. my guess its growth of about 6.5-6.7% will continue for another few more years(1-2) then it's difficult to forecast.
You see every economics professionals will have a different opinion about an economics seldom you find no 2 or more economists that have the same opinion, hence it is an imprecise science if you want to call it that way.
So if you are interested in this topic there are extensive materials on TH-cam you refer to.
right, human capital, but how could you keep human capital with highly polluted environment?
How will this possible recession affect Western and European economies?
European countries (particularly Germany) are export-led. Most of those exports stay within the EU, but a significant portion of them are sent to China. So you might actually see German unemployment as much as double with China in recession.
Canada, the US, and Mexico (along with the Central American and Caribbean states by extension) tend to keep all trade within the continental trading blocs centered on NAFTA. As a result, less than 5% of US exports travel beyond North America, so we're pretty well-insulated from a international contractions in consumption (after all, the US is still the largest consumer market in the world, dwarfing China''s considerably) . As for the goods we import from China, American consumption has never been able to keep up with the amount produced by the Chinese, so a contraction in Chinese production will probably be fine. American companies have been slowly migrating much of their outsource labor to the cheap ASEAN states and Mexico as well, due to rising labor costs in China and fears about IP theft.
The worst hit will be immediate neighbors of China's, like Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the ASEAN.
it doesn't matter what a GDP of a country is, its more the quality of GDP that a country achieves. in China they have such a high GDP because they build alot of infrastructure that ends up not getting used and that's why there unemployment is as low as it is also.
+Nick Allen says:
"that's why there unemployment is as low as it is also."
==
Do you really believe what Chinese government says?
Really?
+allgoo19
Plus the fact that their supposed well invested human capital is leaving China by the droves, all emigrating to the West. Just look at how many housing bubbles have been caused in Western countries by Chinese emigrants who took their money out of China to buy homes and businesses in the West. Nobody wants to live in a polluted corrupted country.
+meaturama says:
"The Chinese government are our friend we should respect and honor them"
==
What do you mean by "Our friend"?
Which group do you belong to?
People in US?
People in the rest of the world?
People of China?
6 years ago :)
excelent
Many companies are defaulting on dept now
Luckily the government has begun limiting capital exiting the country. Quite smart of an economic move.
Perhaps, but you can only really do so much before limiting capital outflows hurts your economy due to reduced FDI.
Looking back 6 years later, Chinese hypergrowth has ended far sooner than expected (and far sooner than the likes of Japan, South Korea and the other tigers), their industrial sector is faltering, their housing sector is a basketcase, and their energy sector is in a massive crunch.
Wishful thinking of the Western World now that they have competition. Rest assured Western hegemony days are over.
7:00 US share some of this problem too (Stock Market Bubble , National Debt) and cheap energy from shale oil bubble. Capital from BRICS go to US, dollar now is very high but it will fall and the devaluation is gonna spread over the world.
Excellent, it's February 2016, if you haven't noticed, everything crashed in January.
The debt percentage is wrong! It's only 17%
+Sawyer Teng It did grow 17% in a mere six months in 2014, but the debt is over 240% of GDP as of late 2015. www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21676837-credit-growth-still-outstripping-economic-growth-deleveraging-delayed
-Meg
you're right, they messed up the debts at 6:10 by putting china's total debt next to the national debts of other countries. you'd think they wouldn't be so sloppy
Hello,
There was an inadvertent error in one of the graphics - we posted this data note (www.mruniversity.com/china-data-note) in the video soon after we released it. You can see it around 6:15.
We take these things very seriously and have since added more review steps to make sure things like this don't fall through the cracks.
Best,
Roman
Sawyer Teng
Uneducated gullible dreamer!
better than being an uneducated basement dweller jerking off america's past glories
Why is it that China is so keen to devalue its currency and maintain a trade surplus? If China consistently exports more than it imports, will that not lower the standard of living of people in China given that lots that is being produced is being sent out of the country?
Maybe the extreme growth is what keeps the people content with pseudo-slavery. I'm waiting to see them reap what they have sown.
Four years have passed but why does the bubble still not shatter? I'm just curious, wanting to know the truth.
The Chinese government lies about everything.
XVC in China so what’s the truth?
@@Miguel-ly4bm 1, so the bubble already pop? people are actually begging for food in the street? but CCP cover that up.
or 2, CCP lie and that stop the bubble from popping?
Well imo it's breaking right now 26/12/2022
THE PROBLEMS ARE OVER EXTENSION AND OVER POPULATION.
Well said in the video. The issues mentioned are real and need paying attention to. Because the China economy is highly controlled by the central government, the exact outcome is not easy to predict. It can be a prolonged soft landing other than a hard landing. In the future, good execution is not the dominate factor for high speed growth any more. Instead, innovation and research is much needed than before.
2017 and you call 6%, highest absolute growth in the entire world, a recession?
A drop from 10% to 6% is a bigger reduction in GDP growth than the US's drop from 1.8% in 2007 to -0.3% when the recession hit. Sharp drops in real GDP growth can absolutely devastate capital markets, especially if those capital markets were entirely oriented around growth exceeding 10% for more than three decades.
I think it's spot on. I agree that there is overconfidence in China and this recession that they are going through will help mold the Chinese people, more than the government into more humble and wiser group of people.
+Adrian Clavijo I dont see a recession
In the words of Mao, F* your 4000 year old civilization, The people Republic of China is about 66 years old. It's basically a new puppy with an industrial history of about 40 years of age. The cultural revolution trough 4000 years of culture out the window and set the county back about 500 years.
China is a developing county, and that's putting it politely. To start with, China has no time zones, the entire country is on Beijing time. I can only imagine how that must feel in the undeveloped west of China. Only half the country can read and write and of those that do have access to school, only half of those gets in to a university. The education system is not even fully developed.
Hong Kong, which has "suppository been westernized", Doesn't have a standardized history course for their basic education. History is not a core subject for the territory, and there is no university in Hong Kong that offers a veterinary degree. To obtain this education the students have to leave the territory.
As for China only 10% maybe 20% of the country is developed. The west of China very under developed, and for good reason to, there is no ocean near by, so why developed it?
With less than half of the country developed how is China's GDP in the single digits? 7% growth rate is a recession number. China should still be making double digits GDP.
China's ego is the reason why China is doing so poorly in the region. It's also the reason why everyone in south east Asia is gravitating towards India. India isn't dusting up ancient history and expecting apologies for war crimes, India isn't trying to change the status quo, India isn't making outlandish border claims. India is a free market, and hopefully they wont manipulate it in the future.
China is asking for respect without earning it. I'm hoping that this recession will help to humble this very naughty, naughty teenager.
+dilegentelectron thank you for agreeing with me.
+dilegentelectron I don't see your counter point anywhere?
Are you being humble at this point? no, which proves my point. you have not demonstrate humbleness in anyway. Clearly my comments offended you. I'll apologies for the "f* your 4k year of culture" but you clearly didn't understand the point I was making with that. Your culture already gave up your history before I was even born. Disregarded like it was useless. China was so busy trying to be new, it destroyed the old and the history along with it.
Great video by Cowen whose marginalrevolution blog is also excellent. But I have to point out one needs to take a leap of faith to agree with what Cowen said in the last about human capital.
I, for one, am not optimistic about Chinese human capital. Lack of freedom, critical thinking (btw, thanks to the communist party and Confucius education system) and imagination are common problems among Chinese. One can argue that Chinese have great engineers and hard-workers who can do the checklist (a.k.a easy) stuff really efficiently, which Prof. Cowen said in this video, but really get lost when the tasks are not well defined and very complex and they require experimentation and creativity, and sometimes even allow for failures. That's where Communist bosses will make decisions and these decisions will be less driven by market forces but by bosses' own incentives and interests. Do you have confidence in such system? I don't.
到也还行
Seems like the stimulus spending is leading to over capacity.
+David Williams Total stimulus spending estimates have it around $23 trillion spent since 2009 to 2013. Much of that $23 trillion was all deficit spending, leveraged money. Epic proportion. Which stunk. Had they used that stimulus to fund a better medical program that doesn't require their people to go back to their home province for treatment, increase their form of social security, uphold labor safety laws, improve industrial environmental operations, etc. They didn't do this that much. Only the elites got "human capital" benefits, and those who have emigrated to other countries.
Like Indiana Jones: He chose poorly. They spent poorly.
All the causes of current failure have one thing in common:
Govt.
Had they just allowed capitalism, it could have still failed eventually, but the govt possibly makes the bubbles so much bigger....just like here.
Will there human capital be a problem due to their populations n problem?