Note of clarification: As listed in my spreadsheet and the AMC debt table the 1L Secured Debt held by the plaintiffs in the lawsuit is a Term Loan (not bonds). AMC pays interest during the life of the loan and the face amount of the term loan is due at the end of the loan period.
Q3 box office estimate (which I previously shared with you) remains at $ 2,725,000,000. Hoping these releases: 20-Sep Never Let Go The Substance Transformers One Whiplash (Re-Release) 27-Sep Bagman Lee Megalopolis The Wild Robot plus Usher monies and continued receipts for Deadpool and Wolverine ...... bring in the 275,000,000 needed to achieve this estimate.
ummm if AMC has decided to screw one class of its debt holders... dont ya think that could bite the company when they have to finance the 1bln+ debt still out there 2025 thru 26 that wasnt part of this last deal?? The debt holders only get "screwed" if AMC goes BK... how is that gonna work for you genius?? careful what ya wish for when it come to AMC debt holders losing
It's amazing that 2.3 billion shares or 6X the float have been sold off since the May runup. People just love buying and selling this stock at a lower price for some reason.
It's normal during times of high bankruptcy risk (2020-2021) for a bondholder to short the stock as a hedge to offset potential losses on their bonds. There is no longer any reason for bondholders to be short. In fact it would be kind of a dumb hedge as bond prices are more likely to go up as AMC books positive income and FCF.
Hi this is Jacob from the AMC. This video was really interesting, but I’m still a bit too new into the investing scene. Would you have any books or videos that you could recommend that’d be good for starters like myself? Personally I’m starting with Thomas Sowell. Thanks so much for introducing me to your channel.
The Bondholders of over $800 million suing are more than likely hedgies hedging the short side of their bet considering what shareholders have gone through over the last three years. It’s just like the shareholder who sued amc over APE shares and the short hedge funds who bought APE and shorted AMC of course these guys are shorts. If the bonds are trading close to par they could sell them instead of spending millions in a lawsuit.
While that was a thing a few years ago when bankruptcy risk was high (hedging their bond loss risk) there is zero reason at this point for a bondholder to be short. That would be a very bad hedge considering bond prices are expected to go up even more as box office improves. Makes zero sense to me. That's my 2 cents on that topic. I know not everyone will agree but talk to some actual bond traders (not AMC hype men) and ask - I bet you'll get the same answer.
@@IanFleming808 that channel has nothing to offer a single investor - the content he provides is incorrect so often … may as well just watch old New Jersey Angelo vids. “Trillions of synthetics”. FTDs hidden in Brazilian BDRs Good luck to you if he is a primary source of information for your investment decisions 😫
what will all of the debt holders... just deciding to sell its AMC obligations because of what the company is doing to them... do to the price and demand for AMC debt??? careful what ya wish for... you may get that
I thought movico was only 175 select locations? So don’t the 1L holders still have collaterateral of remaining holdings…. They just have “less” collateral?
According to the legal complaint: "material assets including major leases, owned real property, related assets, the rights related to 175 of its most valuable movie theatres and core intellectual property-including the AMC brand name itself-(collectively, the “Muvico Collateral”) were all shifted into Muvico." So it sounds like potentially the most valuable assets, but not 100% of the assets. Any way we try to slice it, Muvico stripped away collateral that had previously been part of the original 1L term loan agreement, so that is what the legal complaint is about.
@@TonyDenaro interesting these guys didn’t play ball. Seems like some kind of “power” move from the board to get remaining lenders in line. They must be uncooperative for some reason we’ll likely never know. Almost like your terms are shit. We’ll work with you like these other guys, or we’ll take out new loans in 26 and you can get fucked.
@@TonyDenaro on I meant operating costs & expenses. I just looked it up it’s around $5B. And their breakeven per quarter is $1.2B and the box office needed is like around 2.4B per quarter. And the industry’s box office avg sits around 11.8B. I did the math, AMC could be looking at returning ~$1.2B profit per year starting ‘26. And if they continue the trend for that 3 years after, they can pay down all their debt due ‘29, they also got ~ $800M cash currently to pay the ‘26 term debt
Yes, over the next few years if you're still invested you will still need to keep an eye on the company's use of Free Cash Flow and positive net income to pay down the debt. The shorter term is just making sure they are net positive quarterly, which means no more having to 'tap the equity market' to pay the debt service (interest).
Note of clarification: As listed in my spreadsheet and the AMC debt table the 1L Secured Debt held by the plaintiffs in the lawsuit is a Term Loan (not bonds). AMC pays interest during the life of the loan and the face amount of the term loan is due at the end of the loan period.
Excellent, THANKYOU VERY much Tony.
Thanks Tony. Good job!!!
Thanks Tony, very helpful.
Thanks Tony great quick analysis on the lawsuit
Thank you for these videos!
Very clear as always Tony, thanks for the update 🍻
Q3 box office estimate (which I previously shared with you)
remains at $ 2,725,000,000.
Hoping these releases:
20-Sep
Never Let Go
The Substance
Transformers One
Whiplash (Re-Release)
27-Sep
Bagman
Lee
Megalopolis
The Wild Robot
plus Usher monies and continued receipts for Deadpool and Wolverine ......
bring in the 275,000,000 needed to achieve this estimate.
Hope so! Champagne ready if we get a domestic box over 2023 Q3
Tony you are the best! Thanks
Thanks Tony! Very helpful DD!
So in a nutshell, the creation of Muvico was possibly genius to circumvent this very lawsuit?
If they planned it correctly, yes. We will have to see. I haven't talked to anyone yet who thinks AMC did not forsee this potentially happening.
Helpful
Appreciate your content Tony
Keep up the good work! Another follower 🎉
Lol those hedges got screwed on those bonds lol 😆 😂 🤣
ummm if AMC has decided to screw one class of its debt holders... dont ya think that could bite the company when they have to finance the 1bln+ debt still out there 2025 thru 26 that wasnt part of this last deal?? The debt holders only get "screwed" if AMC goes BK... how is that gonna work for you genius?? careful what ya wish for when it come to AMC debt holders losing
Transformers One was amazing. ❤
Thank you Tony!! Always a pleasure listening to you. I appreciate your hard work.
It's amazing that 2.3 billion shares or 6X the float have been sold off since the May runup. People just love buying and selling this stock at a lower price for some reason.
Sounds like short sellers got played by buying bonds but then going massive short which would make up the bond while collecting payments?
It's normal during times of high bankruptcy risk (2020-2021) for a bondholder to short the stock as a hedge to offset potential losses on their bonds. There is no longer any reason for bondholders to be short. In fact it would be kind of a dumb hedge as bond prices are more likely to go up as AMC books positive income and FCF.
Hi this is Jacob from the AMC. This video was really interesting, but I’m still a bit too new into the investing scene. Would you have any books or videos that you could recommend that’d be good for starters like myself? Personally I’m starting with Thomas Sowell. Thanks so much for introducing me to your channel.
The Bondholders of over $800 million suing are more than likely hedgies hedging the short side of their bet considering what shareholders have gone through over the last three years. It’s just like the shareholder who sued amc over APE shares and the short hedge funds who bought APE and shorted AMC of course these guys are shorts. If the bonds are trading close to par they could sell them instead of spending millions in a lawsuit.
While that was a thing a few years ago when bankruptcy risk was high (hedging their bond loss risk) there is zero reason at this point for a bondholder to be short. That would be a very bad hedge considering bond prices are expected to go up even more as box office improves. Makes zero sense to me. That's my 2 cents on that topic. I know not everyone will agree but talk to some actual bond traders (not AMC hype men) and ask - I bet you'll get the same answer.
@@TonyDenaroyup
The title is “Amc shorts out of IOUs” by Investing Generation posted today
@@IanFleming808 that channel has nothing to offer a single investor - the content he provides is incorrect so often … may as well just watch old
New Jersey Angelo vids. “Trillions of synthetics”. FTDs hidden in Brazilian BDRs Good luck to you if he is a primary source of information for your investment decisions 😫
what will all of the debt holders... just deciding to sell its AMC obligations because of what the company is doing to them... do to the price and demand for AMC debt??? careful what ya wish for... you may get that
Just one question...is amc ever going to go up?...just 100%...will it ever at least 100% ?
@@wyzz1232 If box office continues to grow, earnings grow. Price is derived off of EPS. Just have to keep an eye on those convertible notes.
Duh
I am a shareholder and I always like to listen to you.
Great video
I thought movico was only 175 select locations? So don’t the 1L holders still have collaterateral of remaining holdings…. They just have “less” collateral?
According to the legal complaint: "material assets including major leases, owned real property, related assets, the rights related to 175 of its most valuable movie theatres and core intellectual property-including the AMC brand name itself-(collectively, the “Muvico Collateral”) were all shifted into Muvico." So it sounds like potentially the most valuable assets, but not 100% of the assets. Any way we try to slice it, Muvico stripped away collateral that had previously been part of the original 1L term loan agreement, so that is what the legal complaint is about.
@@TonyDenaro interesting these guys didn’t play ball. Seems like some kind of “power” move from the board to get remaining lenders in line. They must be uncooperative for some reason we’ll likely never know. Almost like your terms are shit. We’ll work with you like these other guys, or we’ll take out new loans in 26 and you can get fucked.
I’m back in anyway 😅
What is AMC's yearly fixed expenses? And then so does this mean AMC has to pay $800M at the year-end to the debt holders that they owe that amount to?
@Soulastro12 it is a actually a term loan, so $800M due in 2026. Interest only until then.
@@TonyDenaro on I meant operating costs & expenses. I just looked it up it’s around $5B. And their breakeven per quarter is $1.2B and the box office needed is like around 2.4B per quarter. And the industry’s box office avg sits around 11.8B. I did the math, AMC could be looking at returning ~$1.2B profit per year starting ‘26. And if they continue the trend for that 3 years after, they can pay down all their debt due ‘29, they also got ~ $800M cash currently to pay the ‘26 term debt
@Soulastro12 catch me on an evening Live and we can model in the spreadsheet some revenue outcomes based on your box office targets
Tony audio is awful. Great video though.
Yea good stuff but they are going to need more time to pay up the debt.
Yes, over the next few years if you're still invested you will still need to keep an eye on the company's use of Free Cash Flow and positive net income to pay down the debt. The shorter term is just making sure they are net positive quarterly, which means no more having to 'tap the equity market' to pay the debt service (interest).