Fierceness - Duke Matties - 2024 Kentucky Derby Monster Podcast - Presented by FREE REIN COFFEE
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 มิ.ย. 2024
- Welcome to the "2024 Kentucky Derby Monster Podcast," where top horse racing analysts Peter Thomas Fornatale and Duke Matties dive deep into the profiles of Derby contenders. In this episode, we spotlight the impressive Derby hopeful, Fierceness, owned by Repole Stable and trained by Todd Pletcher. Fierceness, a striking progeny of City of Light out of Nonna Bella, has recently clinched a record-breaking victory in the Florida Derby (G1) by 13 1/2 lengths.
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110+ Beyers since 2004: Materiality (2015), Sinister Minister (2006), Bellamy Road (2005), Lion Heart, The Cliff’s Edge, Read the Footnotes (2004). Smarty Jones: 108 in 2004.
How much faster is Fierceness over routing distances than his likely KD opponents with tactical speed?
FRACTIONS FOR 9F KD PREPS ON DIRT:
FL Derby ---24.06; 47.50; 1:11.31; 1:35.63; 1:48.22
Blue Grass -22.15; 46.48; 1:10.83; 1:36.65; 1:50.08.
SA Derby---22.72; 46.73; 1:10.90; 1:36.88; 1:49.98
AK Derby---23.43; 47.46; 1:12.26; 1:37..25; 1:49.54
Wood M----23.45; 47.49; 1:12.31; 1:37..35; 1:50.28
Fierceness recorded the slowest 2F & 4F fractions in the 9F KD prep on dirt. This allowed him to be faster on the back end of the FL Derby. Which of the likely KD entrants with good tactical speed will Fierceness lead with his F L Derby 2F & 4F fractions? None!
His 8F split of 1:35.63 is about full 1 & 1 1/2 seconds faster than every other comparable prep. Are there any 1:35 plus milers in the field?
MSW 8F Churchill Downs (October 1,2023) Stronghold (1st by 11/2L; 2nd start) - 22.86; 46.30; 1:11.33; 1:35.99.
Track Phantom (debut) led the race for the first 6F. Stronghold (2nd start) took over from 2nd and held off a fast-closing Resilience (2nd start). The aforementioned 3 colts have won KD preps. Stronghold has won two that featured internal fractions for 6F that were ither faster than or comparable those recorded in the FL Derby. Further, Stronghold has recorded recent works of 46 plus for 4F and 58 plus for 5F. The very fast Just a Touch has not even been mentioned.
The notion that Fierceness is way ahead in the speed department in grossly in accurate.
The FL Derby has in the past produced some of the fastest times for 9F KD Preps. See last 10 fastest times prior to 2024:
2019 - Maximum Security -1:48.86 - Trainer admitted to enhancement
2017 - Always Dreaming - 1:47.47 - Fastest time in 39 years. ran 7 seconds faster than previous effort at the distance. Subsequent races stand as circumstantial evidence of enhancement.
2009 - Quality Road - 1:47.72 - Was always a consistently fast horse, No Red flag.
2008 - Big Brown - 1:48.16 - Trainer admitted to steroid use.
2002 - Harlands Holiday - 1:48.80 - trainer not known to be an enhancer but should be as horses tend to lose form unexpectedly ala Smile Happy.
1996 - Unbridled's Song - 1:47.85 - Brilliant colt with decent trainer
1994 - Holy Bull - 1:47.66 - Exceptionally brilliant colt
1984 - Swale - 1:47.60 - Brilliant colt rained by the master - Woody Stevens
1979- Spectacular Bid - 1:48.80 - Exceptionally brilliant colt.
1978 - Alydar-- - 1:47.00 - Exceptionally brilliant colt
Fierceness won the 2024, F L Derby in 1:48.22 with his rider motionless in the last 1/2F furlong. This suggests he probably could have recorded a time either in the low 1:47 or even get into the Arrogate zone of 1:46 plus. How many of the above past FL Derby winners is Fierceness better than? Is he comparable to Arrogate?
What folks will not acknowledge is the fact that Todd Pletcher horses are enhanced. Is the aforementioned without merit?
Cutting Humor finished a wakening 7th by 8 3/4L in the South. In his next start 3 days later, he won the Sunland Derby in a NTR of 1:46.94.( was off the board in remaining 3 career starts).
Always Dreaming won an 9F AOC in 1:53 plus. In his next start 28 days later, he won the F L Derby in1:47 plus. That's 6 seconds' improvement in 28 days. (1win in 6 starts after)
? for PTF & JK? Which horses in past KD needed everything to go their way and won vs. those who didn't win?
Repole's face after he loses, priceless.
Fierceness is expected to use his superior speed to telling effect in the KD. I am still struggling to agree with this prediction. In the interest of full disclosure, I harbor no dislike for Fierceness that would in any way inhibit my capacity to concur a majority opinion.
Below is an example of what inhibits my concurrence:
Fractions for the first 3 panels in Just A Touch 3 starts:
MSW------ 22.45; 46.10; 1:10.53 - Equibase -100
Gotham - 23.42; 46.63; 1:10.94- Equibase - 95
B/Grass - 23.15; 46.48; 1:10.83- Equibase -105
Fractions for the first 3 panels in Fierceness last 3 starts:
BCJ-------- 23.25; 47.02; 1:10.86- Equibase -110
H/Bull ---- 25.03; 50.53; 1:14.25- Equibase -90
FL Derby- 24.07; 47.50; 1:11.31- Equibase -110
If Fierceness was substituted with Just A Touch in the FL Derby and JAT had the luxury of recording fractions of 2.07 .47.50 ;1:11.31, by how many lengths would the Brad Cox trainee have won?Which of the two have been facing more formidable opponents?
Just A Touch raced an average of 2 lengths off the leader in his races. Based on the comparable factions above, Just A Touch is a consistently faster colt than Fierceness over 6F.Big Beyers and minus TG numbers seems to be the driver of Fierceness' status as being superior in the speed department.
On the subject of speed figures. The fractions in the Gotham were 2 to 4 seconds faster than the Holy Bull. Yet, Fierceness was assigned an Equibase 90 for 3rd and JAT 95 for 2nd. The aforementioned doesn't compute.
If speed figures and TG numbers are the hills on which many are prepared to meet their demise. It is my hope that it's painless.
Life is Good had big numbers too and yet after Breeders they had to send search team with lights on to find him
I noticed the same on Fierceness when he ran 3rd. He didn't look focussed in the gate. I'll chalk that up to it being his 1st race back since 2. His next race I'd say he looked focussed! Lol
I'll take Fierceness @5/2 on the front end with a 110 BSF over Sierra Leone @7/2 coming from the back of the pack with a 98 BSF every single time.
I agree with Duke. Put him on top of the others you like, and then leave him out altogether and box the others you like.
Also you could key Sierra Leone 1st, 2nd, & 3rd with the others you like with Fierceness off the ticket.
Here's a couple ideas for inexpensive supers with Fierceness on top that could pay nicely.
First key Fierceness on top.
Second key Honor Marie @20/1 2nd, 3rd, and 4th with 5 other horses you like.
Total cost is $60 for a $1 super.
You could swap out Honor Marie with which ever horse you like to show up at a price.
Next you could key Fierceness on top.with a lonshot keyed in 4th like Grand Mo The First @50/1 or Domestic Product @30/1 or Encino @30/1.
Then put your 5 horses in the 2nd and 3rd hole.
Total cost for this one is $20 for a $1 super. You could use all 3 longshots for a total of $60.
Just a few ideas to throw out there.
Good luck and enjoy the Derby! 🍻
ALWAYS DREAMING
Pletcher has only had THE FAVORITE in 2017, the winner Always Dreaming (9/2). However, he’s had many starters among the favorites since 2004, which in The Derby would be less than 10-1: Tapit Trice (9/2), Mo Donegal (9-1), Tacitus (5-1), Audible (7-1), Carpe Diem (7-1), Revolutionary (5-1), Verrazano (9-1), Gemologist (8-1), Super Saver (8-1), Dunkirk (5-1), Bandini (5-1). That’s 12 starters considered good chances to win in 20 years, 2 of whom did indeed win and 1 other In The Money.
Got to find the right longshots that's goin be in the money
Hoping Duke is going to give his opinion on some races leading up to derby day. 🤞
Winning Contender (A)
If you tribox these 6 you are covered.
Sierra Leone
Fierceness
Catching Freedom
Just Steel
Forever Young
Honor Marie
Doing a 6 horse trifecta box with the 4 lowest priced horses is not great betting strategy. You could win that bet and still lose money.
KY Derby Winner’s Last Prep Since 1996 -
1996: Arkansas Derby (1st)
1997: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
1998: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
1999: Lexington Stakes (1st)
2000: Wood Memorial (1st)
2001: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2002: Illinois Derby (1st)
2003: Wood Memorial (2nd)
2004: Arkansas Derby (1st)
2005: Santa Anita Derby (4th)
2006: Florida Derby (1st)
2007: Blue Grass Stakes (2nd)
2008: Florida Derby (1st)
2009: Sunland Derby (4th)
2010: Arkansas Derby (2nd)
2011: Spiral Stakes (1st)
2012: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2013: Florida Derby (1st)
2014: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2015: Arkansas Derby (1st)
2016: Florida Derby (1st)
2017: Florida Derby (1st)
2018: Santa Anita Derby (1st)
2019: Florida Derby (1st)
2021: Santa Anita Derby (2nd)
2022: Jeff Ruby Steaks (4th)
2023: Florida Derby (2nd)
Santa Anita Derby: 8
Florida Derby: 7
Arkansas Derby: 4
Wood Memorial: 2
Lexington: 1
Illinois Derby: 1
Blue Grass: 1
Sunland Derby: 1
Spiral: 1
Jeff Ruby: 1
Winners of their last prep: 17/27 = 63%
Losers of their last prep: 10/27 = 37%
1st: 17
2nd: 7
3rd: 0
ITM in their last prep: 24/27 = 88.9%
I’m aware Justify is no longer considered the winner of the 2018 SA Derby but I’m putting him here because he did finish 1st similar to why I’m using Maximum Security and Medina Spirit for 2019 and 2021. I’m using their final preps for this. I’m not going to use Bolt d’Oro, Country House, and Mandaloun’s final prep. I’m going to exclude 2020. That was a weird year seeing the Belmont first at 9F. I’m only going back to 1996 because that was the first year I got into horse racing.
According to this history, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie would be tosses. Their last prep was the Louisiana Derby which hasn’t produced a winner if that happened to be their final prep. And this also doesn’t bode well for Sierra Leone either. Strike the Gold in 1991 was the last BG winner who won the roses. Street Sense nearly won it in 2007 but Dominican nosed him out. Keeneland had installed synthetic that season.
The Santa Anita Derby has been the best final prep since 1996 but I’m not sure how to feel about Stronghold. I’m not feeling the horses who ran in SA. If Imagination was in the KY Derby, I wouldn’t be high on him either. Stronghold finished slow and his Beyer of 89 for his recent win is the lowest fig I’ve seen for a winner in a G1 final prep. I may have him in a few bets being a Ghostzapper fan.
Florida Derby has been the most productive final prep with KY Derby winners having 4 of the last 7 since 2016. Three of those won both races. But here we go again like Forte last year. Forte won the BC Juvenile and Florida Derby and being trained by Pletcher. The BCJ winner is only 2 for 39 in the Derby. The 2YO champ is only 3 for 43 since 1980. And we know how Pletcher horses are on big days. Tapit Trice was the 2nd fav last year and didn’t hit the board.
Fierceness has all the talent but he’s not a reliable horse to bet on just like his trainer. Sink or swim, feast or famine like War Emblem, Bayern, or a Pletcher horse. Bet Fierceness with plenty of caution. He’s burned a lot of money as the heavy chalk. I look at Sierra Leone similar to Epicenter/Zandon. He’s big and strong like Epicenter. If he doesn’t win it, I still see him hitting the board. Not the same case with Fierceness. He either wins it or he fades badly and won’t hit the board.
1st or 2nd in their final prep
SA Derby: Stronghold
FL Derby: Fierceness
Wood: Resilience
AR Derby: Just Steel
Blue Grass: Sierra Leone, Just A Touch
Lexington: Encino
Jeff Ruby: Endlessly
LA Derby: Catching Freedom, Honor Marie
UAE Derby: Forever Young
Updated Rankings
1. Sierra Leone (1st)
2. Fierceness (1st)
3. Resilience (1st)
4. Just Steel (2nd)
5. Stronghold (1st)
6. Endlessly (1st)
Toss
Forever Young
Catching Freedom
Honor Marie
Just A Touch
Epic Ride
Dornoch
Encino
Domestic Product
Track Phantom
Mystik Dan
Deterministic
If it’s wet, more money on Fierceness. The two times Pletcher won was on a sloppy track. If it’s dry, more money on Sierra Leone. He’s bigger. He looks stronger. He’s the best closer since Street Sense.
I think the 6 horses I listed have names of a Derby winner. Resilience, similar to Justify or Authentic, sounds right to me. But I don’t believe Resilience is particularly fast similar to Stronghold whom he lost to at Churchill in a maiden race.
Endlessly is giving me Animal Kingdom vibes. AK looked like a turf/synthetic horse but was training beautifully leading up to the race and won at 25-1. I forgot he’s the son of Leroidesanimaux. I was a big fan of that horse back in ‘05. The Jeff Ruby has produced Rich Strike and Two Phil’s. Tapalo in the SA Derby did not flatter Endlessly’s El Camino win over him.
I’m looking at Stronghold’s final times in Horse Racing Nation and I don’t understand why his speed figs are so low? He broke his maiden beating Resilience at 1:35 and change at Churchill. That’s pretty fast at CD and for a 2YO. Didn’t he break the track record in Sunland? He ran 1:42 and change for that Derby. That’s fast.
Maybe that’s a good thing? Beyer boys used to love Stronghold’s sire. Gave Ghostzapper a 128 for the Iselin. I saw the hoopla with Flightline but GZ defeated much better competition. I don’t get the low figs for Stronghold. These other preps go 1:50+ and they’re receiving higher figs. Stronghold goes 1:49+ and he gets an 89.
D. Wayne Lukas is known to run his horses to the ground. Charismatic ran 7x as a 3YO before he won the Derby. Just Steel has run 4x as a 3YO and 11x overall. Almost twice as long as Justify and Flightline’s career. I don’t necessarily see JS winning it but he’s a good exotics play. He has finished behind the likes of Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.
Resilience finished behind Stronghold once but ahead of Track Phantom in a maiden race. Then finished behind Sierra Leone, Track Phantom, and Catching Freedom in the Risen Star. I feel like Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Stronghold, and Resilience are close to the same level with mid 90s BSFs. Marty Wygod died recently. Maybe Resilience wins the roses in honor of him?
I’m favoring Stronghold and Resilience due to their last preps. When was the last time the Louisiana Derby produced the Kentucky Derby winner? Remember Lawyer Ron or Friesan Fire? The Turfway preps have greater success than Fair Grounds. Epicenter used the LA Derby race as his final prep and lost the Derby and Preakness as the chalk. And Epicenter looked more formidable to me than Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.
It seems to me Sierra Leone is the best closer of the bunch but he isn’t far and away faster than any of them with a 98 BSF. But he is the most consistent and reliable. Think Zenyatta. A horse with a 19-1 record is pretty darn good and I don’t care if it’s mostly on synthetic. A closer is always at the mercy of the pace. Sierra Leone could be Zandon Part 2 but it would still be foolish to toss him in your tickets.
Still hasn't put together 2 consecutive good races, but if he breaks well and settles into a good rhythm and works out a trip like the breeders cup or Florida derby, he should win. Then again if he doesn't break well, will probably end up near the back of the pack.
He will be fine....out of the gate is a long stretch til the 1st turn
Fierceness over stronghold sierra leone honor marie and track phantom
I think I’m going to approach betting the Kentucky Derby differently this year. With my recent bad luck since Maximum Security got DQ’d, I’m only betting to SHOW.
I rewatched last year’s Derby. Do you remember how people on TH-cam were so high on ANGEL OF EMPIRE? He ran a good race as the chalk but he moved a little too late. Mage moved sooner and he won it.
This is my feeling with Sierra Leone. There hasn’t been a Blue Grass winner who won the KY Derby since 1991. And we’ve had some good ones recently like Good Magic, Essential Quality, and Zandon. Maybe Sierra Leone is Zandon Part 2?
Horses like Zandon and Angel of Empire get heavily supported on Derby Day only to watch them finish 3rd. That might be Sierra Leone seeing the pattern.
So I’m looking at the show payouts for Zandon and Angel of Empire. The odds for them is somewhere between $2.30-2.80 to 1. I might as well take that chance instead of losing on another win bet and Sierra Leone only finishes 3rd.
If let’s say the show payout for Sierra Leone is $5 because Zandon was $5.60 and Angel of Empire was $4.70, I can go $60 on that. Take 5x30. That’s $150 net profit to me.
I might just play it that way. I’m sick and tired of losing the Derby placing win bets on half the field. If I’m going to lose, I will simply pray that one of my horses finishes 3rd. I still win money even if my horses lose.
$60 SHOW
Sierra Leone
$20 SHOW
Stronghold
Resilience
Mage paid $9 for show last year.
Or I’ll keep it simple: $100 SHOW on Sierra Leone. That could still net me around $250. It ain’t much but it’s better than being a -100. It’s tough to win a race like that. You can love a horse like Holy Bull or Point Given and they will mysteriously run off the board.
still best 2 horses are not in derby again this year again. love see Fierceness face Muth and Especially Nysos in triple crown.😂
FIERCENESS already blew away Muth in the breeders cup!!
Nysos hmmmm
He had a monster work 8 days before the Fla.Derby. His last work on 4/26 was dismal. Red flag?
I'm not saying he can't.. but he will be over bet... everyone is looking at his Florida derby which was very good.but things may not play out the same and more than likely won't.... he will be over bet...his speed figure might be a bit inflated...if he's your horse I don't blame you..I refuse to take a short price.. good luck
If his speed figures were inflated in the Florida Derby, then it could have been higher...he eased an hand ridden him halfway to the finish line
If we go simply by the highest Beyer or the highest last two Beyers combined entering the KY Derby, then it’s pretty obvious Fierceness is on top. But the last two Derbies has shown this is NOT the case. Rich Strike entered the Derby with an 89 Beyer and 4th place finish in the Jeff Ruby. I questioned Mage’s inexperience never racing as a 2YO, only 3 starts with his lone win prior being a maiden win, and having only a 94 Beyer in the Florida Derby.
The last two years really messed up a lot of people’s analysis on things. I know some people had Mage last year but there were major red flags from him prior to the win. In most years, an unraced 2YO with a 94 BSF would’ve been a 50-1 longshot. But since Rich Strike made some us play so many horses across the board as to say ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE, Mage was only 15-1. It also helped that Forte got scratched.
Honestly, neither the two favorites in Fierceness and Sierra Leone gives me enough confidence that they will win. They have very contrasting running styles that can be their undoing. If we toss the last two Derby winners, then Fierceness has the advantage. If we consider Maximum Security and Medina Spirit as the winners, then Animal Kingdom and Orb since 2010 were the only horses from 2010-2021 who won from well off the pace.
2010: Super Saver
2012: I’ll Have Another
2014: California Chrome
2015: American Pharoah
2016: Nyquist
2017: Always Dreaming
2018: Justify
2019: Maximum Security
2020: Authentic
2021: Medina Spirit
All forwardly placed at or near the front. But it seems we’re going back to the 90s and 00s when it’s becoming rarer for horses near the front at winning it. I’ve seen every KY Derby from 1970 and higher. Let’s go back from 1996-2009.
Well off the pace
1996: Grindstone
1998: Real Quiet
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus
2001: Monarchos
2005: Giacomo
2007: Street Sense
2009: Mine That bird
Real Quiet was closer to the pace but came mostly from midpack. That’s 7x in a span of 14 Derbies from 1996-2009. Then a majority from 2010-2021 with 9 winners or 1st place finishers (looking at you two, Max and Medina) from 12 Derbies where the winner was either stalking or went wire to wire.
I just think Fierceness is NOT going to have his own way. I believe the two Justify sons specifically Just A Touch is going to burn it up very early. JAT ran that Blue Grass pretty fast and Sierra Leone still closed the final 3/8th at 38.02 and slower than other contenders including Fierceness.
Forte won the BC Juvie, Florida Derby, and was the 2YO champ. Fierceness is the same thing this year. Is Fierceness going to redeem Pletcher for Forte’s scratch last year? But then Pletcher still had Tapit Trice who ended up 2nd choice behind Angel of Empire and he failed to hit the board.
The more I look at things, *STRONGHOLD* is starting to look good to me. He didn’t close fast but I think his Beyer of 89 is going to keep his price higher than it really should be. Two of my all-time favorite horses are Ghostzapper and the controversial Justify. I will have money on Stronghold and Just Steel because it’s no guarantee that Fierceness or Sierra Leone wins this.
Stronghold isn’t a stone-cold closer. I’ve seen him win from mostly mid pack. But he has won at Churchill. He broke his maiden there at 2 against Resilience and Track Phantom. I was actually going to bet on the Santa Anita Derby but didn’t have the urge to go to LosAl that day. I would’ve won that race because I thought it was only between Stronghold or Imagination.
Just Steel looks live but he has never beaten Catching Freedom or Resilience in a race. The respect is coming from THAT TRAINER at age 88 who won 6 straight TC races from 1994-1996 with Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch, Timber Country, and Grindstone. Then won the 1996 Belmont with Editor’s Note and the 1999 Derby and Preakness with Charismatic. The last time D. Wayne Lukas won a TC race was the 2000 Belmont with Commendable. Blast from the past?
Back in Dec 1995/Jan 1996, one of the first horses I really liked was this filly named Exotic Wood. Ran a bang up 2nd to Serena’s Song in the Santa Monica. I also liked Twice the Vice. They were owned by the Wygods. Be a nice story if Resilience won for Marty but the Wood hasn’t produced a Derby winner since the days of Fusaichi Pegasus and Funny Cide. Most winners are coming out of the Santa Anita Derby or Florida Derby.
Stronghold looks live if you can overlook his low BSF of 89 and 38 and change final 3/8ths. Even the name Stronghold sounds about right. I might put Stronghold at 3rd now above Resilience. Endlessly is interesting but Tapalo did not flatter him when he lost badly to Stronghold. Northern Cal horses are clearly inferior to SoCal’s.
Just remember that anything is possible in the Derby. We can look like smartasses but we’ll start looking like dumbasses after those two minutes are up. And we’re basing things from the PAST. It’s like roulette. Because you see black hits 5 straight times, the odds of getting black again is exactly the same as red on the very next roll.
These horses are not racing against horses from the past. They’re racing against their crop. Whatever patterns we’ve seen from the last 30-50 years won’t equate to the day of the Derby when anything can happen. People can say they’re a slow crop but that doesn’t matter. You have to look at the current speed numbers with a curve. Not numbers that Silver Charm achieved.
I’m ready to play Final Fantasy VII Remake on hard mode and I’ve read beating Sephiroth is very random. You can’t beat him exactly the same way each time. That’s the Kentucky Derby to me. Different variables can pop up every year. Old thresholds like needing to run at least 3-4x as a 3YO prior to the Derby or racing at 2 are becoming archaic.
The past is not going to predict what happens on May 4. Even that under :38 for the final 3/8ths doesn’t hold up anymore as 7 of the winners dating back to Big Brown all ran a final 3/8th over :38. Yes, Big Brown didn’t do this and he had the highest BSFs leading up to it. So Sierra Leone and Stronghold at over :38 doesn’t bother me. Mine That Bird ran it at 40+ and Animal Kingdom ran at 39+. Both won their Kentucky Derby by open lengths.
www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/276301/ky-derby-handicapping-participants-final-fractions
1. Sierra Leone
2. Fierceness
3. Stronghold
4. Resilience
5. Just Steel
6. Endlessly
Santa Anita Derby: Best producer of the KY Derby since 1997. Giacomo didn’t even win that race running 4th and a slow closing time and he shocked the world before Mine That Bird and Rich Strike did. Mine That Bird didn’t win the Sunland Derby. Stronghold won both. Stronghold’s 1:42 and change is fast to me at that distance even if the Beyer doesn’t say so.
My All-Time Favorite Horses
1. Rock Hard Ten
2. Cigar
3. Zenyatta
4. Ghostzapper
5. Justify
6. Free House
7. Silver Charm
8. Lava Man
9. Lit de Justice
10. Soul of the Matter
11. Seattle Slew
12. Secretariat 🐐
13. Affirmed
14. Easy Goer
15. Holy Bull
16. Barbaro
17. Forego
18. Buckpasser
19. Spectacular Bid
20. Dr. Fager (fastest horse to ever live)
Not really the biggest fan of American Pharoah but he would make my top 30 along with Skip Away, Gentlemen, California Chrome, Big Brown, Funny Cide, Ouija Board, and Deep Impact.
Win for daddy, Stronghold and Just Steel.
You can throw out Stronghold and Resilience and put in Honor Marie
SL is a legit threat dangerous but he's not the only powerful closer in the field I do have him rated higher then the FLA Derby winner both horses will go off co chalks and I'll be looking to beat both of them for the win
FIERCENESS
Sierra Leone
Encino
Honor Marie
Forever young
Fighting it out for 2nd, 3rd and 4th
Ok, derbys done. WTF happened to Fierceness; or not so Fierce🤣😭🤣!!! Typical fav out. No one knows sheet!!!
Fierceness should have big speed better..easy lead, no competition, I do not think he wins I think he runs 3rd
Muth ran 115 in Arknansas derby. Just Steele ran a 112. fierceness ran 110 I'm weak no pace field.good math number on him. have 2 horses better number beat him. figure future number. not past. in top 3. box him with 2 horses. Thx. good luck cappers. don't think Sierra leon will win. has no pace at all. be traffic trouble trying circle field. Best was Secratertiat a up front pacer or closer . still fastest since 1973. seem like capper wise guys think leon is secretariat from train tracks😂
FIERCENESS blew away Muth in the breeders cup. Your blind, watch the replays. FIERCENESS was hand ridden halfway down the stretch. In the Champagne got in trouble, pulled back, went wide when making his move around the turn and Ortiz Jr pulled him back and fake rode him
BTW... Sierra Leone is no joke! Good Horse. Hits the board for sure, without a doubt
And Tim Walsh, your no Mike Walsh....that's for sure😂😂😂😂
Vitamin water guru will be stiffled again in the Derby sorry Mike