I calculated Deltarune Chapter 3's EXACT release date. Here's how.
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 มิ.ย. 2024
- I put together a timeline of Deltarune's development, and based on the upcoming Undertale / Deltarune Summer Newsletter (featuring Papyrus apparently), I think we'll know confidently when Chapter 3, Chapter 4, and Chapter 5 will come out. Here's how.
(I'm not going to explain it down here that's why I made the video please watch the video)
Music is mostly from the Deltarune soundtrack / OST, besides two remixes of mine that are on my channel
Nintendo Interview: topics.nintendo.co.jp/article...
Text Box Generator: www.demirramon.com/generators...
Disclaimer: This video is speculation! I am not on the Deltarune team and don't actually know the release date for chapters 3-5. Feel free to come back this video when [release date] passes and leave a comment when it isn't out yet/is already out, remember to like the video on your way out and subscribe maybe
This is just my way of getting into Undertale and Deltarune theories, since I've probably consumed 90% of the undertale deltarune theory youtube videos that exist in the world. Apparently the algorithm likes it when name other channels so some of the recent ones I've enjoyed are DELTARUNE and the Fourth Wall || THE DEVICE THEORY [PART 1: SURVEY_PROGRAM] by mollystars, Everything About Gaster's Motif in the DELTARUNE Soundtrack - A Musical Mythbusting Odyssey by Andrew Cunningham, Everything we know about Redacted in Undertale by HalfBreadChaos, My ULTIMATE THEORY on the FUTURE CHAPTERS of DELTARUNE by RedHeadDJ, Who Dr. Gaster Is and Why That Matters to Deltarune by Misty Sparkles, DELTARUNE / Three MORE Fascinating Discoveries In The Code! by JaruJaruJ, and a whole lot more but I don't want to crowd the description any more.
0:00 - Introduction
0:21 - Disclaimer (skip = disclaim the disclaimer)
1:03 - Chapter 1's development
1:51 - Chapter 2's development
3:29 - Chapter 2 was big
3:53 - Chapter 2's release
4:50 - Spamton Sweepstakes
5:07 - Newsletters
5:59 - Speculation Time
6:55 - When Chapters 3-5 started development
8:42 - one more thing
9:25 - Organizing the evidence
12:07 - Very special date!
12:40 - Almost there
13:07 - Release Date (don't just skip here please)
15:12 - Credits & Special Thanks
- Extra Music! -
➤ / sturfall
#deltarune #theory #releasedate - เกม
❗UPDATE: Since October 31st is almost here, I wanted to revisit this theory with the Fall Newsletter in mind! I'm in the middle of making a few general channel updates and working on another similarly-styled video (⚠) about an upcoming game, but I still get comments here so I thought I'd add something for those of you who check back :)
I do still think Chapters 3-5 will release sometime next year, since there's been no indication that the team wants to change their plans to release all three at once instead of just Chapter 3 (even though I personally would like separate releases more). Funnily enough, the video's title is still kinda accurate--if they were ONLY releasing Chapter 3 this time around, it would probably come out around this time. They're not doing that though, which I knew when making this video lol; the title says only chapter 3 because I thought adding "3-5" would be too confusing
To expand on that a little bit, Chapter 3 has had about 9-10 months of focused development time by now, plus some extra time from before the 2022 update when they were focusing on 3 & 4 together I assume (although that time was probably mostly planning and preliminary work). Compared to Chapter 2's 16 months, it makes sense that Chapter 3 should be finished soon. Because of that, I'm excited for the coming Winter newsletter in December since it means we'll probably get news on Chapter 4 then. (not going to say anything for certain though............ I have learned my lesson)
A release date in Fall 2024 lines up with the 'Deltarune Chapter(s) Released Every 3 Years' pattern (Oct 2018, Sept 2021, Fall 2024), except I never really liked that line of thinking because, like this video shows, the development process for chapter 1 was wildly different from the process for chapter 2 and both are probably different from the process they're using now. That's why I want to wait for more newsletters/news on Chapter 4 specifically before picking a time! I'm also interested in how far along Chapter 4 & 5 are development-wise, because if they're going to take another 10 months each then the game is coming out in like 2025 and quite frankly that's a lot of newsletters
oh also: I can't believe sans lied to us blatantly, it has been 2 years and the game is nowhere to be found. character in a video game couldn't use his powers to predict the volatile and notoriously unpredictable process of real-world video game development??? looks like everyone's favorite skeletom isn't as meta as he may seem
=+==+==+==+==+==+=
[From Jun 2023] So, as you might have noticed, this video came out before the Summer Newsletter released! Here are my initial thoughts--
SHORT ANSWER: Like the video says, next year! The good news is that we'll probably get info about Chapter 4 (and maybe 5) this September for the Fall Newsletter- Toby has released an update every September for the past 3 years, and in the last one he specifically said that the game wouldn't come out that year (2022). Maybe he'll do something similar this time.
LESS SHORT ANSWER: It sounds like Chapter 3 is still the main priority, and its content isn't finished yet (translation didn't mean it was close to content-complete after all, just that the dialogue was complete I suppose). It seems like my assumption that "a chapter's worth of bullets, cutscenes, and gimmicks" meant a full chapter's worth of all types of content was off; if they have people working on bullet patterns and puzzles for Chapters 4 & 5 while most of the team is focusing on finishing Chapter 3, development on individual aspects of chapters (like bullet patterns) sounds disconnected from other parts of that chapter, so finishing bullets, cutscenes, and gimmicks don't guarantee that anything else is complete. This means that development could have started later than I thought, but that doesn't matter *too* much anymore- let's focus on what we know for sure.
The Summer Newsletter was written in May, and Chapter 3 was almost content-complete (for real this time). I'm confident that Chapter 3 alone will be finished by the end of this year, including the final phases Toby talks about- as for Chapters 4 and 5, we still don't know very much unfortunately.
So, 2024 it is! Actually... December 2023 might be possible if Chapters 4 and 5 are in a similar state to Chapter 3, since translation doesn't happen at the very end of development like I thought, but that's super super unlikely. More importantly, it seems like from this newsletter that, now that some work has been done on at least Chapters 3 and 4 from when development started to August 2022, the team is focusing in on Chapter 3 until it's complete, then they'll move up through the chapters sequentially. It sounds like we'll get more information on Chapter 4's development around September-October, since even if the game doesn't come out then, it's still Fall Newsletter time + Undertale Anniversary + Deltarune Anniversary too. I still find it weird that absolutely nothing has been mentioned about Chapter 5 specifically- it almost makes me think that's deliberate, since it's speculated to be a big one story-wise and Toby doesn't want to spoil it, but at the same time it might just not have much work finished on it at all.
Oh well lol. I never really thought I'd be exactly correct, October 31st was just a significant date that lined up with how I thought development was going. The good news is that a lot of the video is still accurate (the timeline minus my blue marker, when the newsletters will come out, development complications making Chapter 2 take longer than expected) and can still be used to predict when Chapters 3-5 will release. I think it'll still be in the first half of the year at least, but it's late and I don't want to go far enough into it to come up with a specific date.
Thank you for watching! This is shaping up to be the biggest video on my channel, which is a bit unfortunate since it's not completely accurate anymore, but I'm still really glad I put it together. I also make music if you didn't know, some of that will be out soon as well.th-cam.com/users/sgaming/emoji/7ff574f2/emoji_u26a0.png
I am obsessively checking my email until I see the newsletter AHHHHHHH!!!!
@@wolfkitty42 SAME
Here before it's released, I'm so excited broooooooooo
@@mrpro877 YEAH ME TOO
seems like toby now want's to release the newsletters closer to the same days, cause new previous one got released in March 31
i still have NO idea how the fanbase will handle 3 new secret bosses at once. the outpouring of community love for Jevil and Spamton was OVERWHELMING…
How are they gonna handle 3 bosses, sets on enemies and such lol
It’s gonna break the Internet
imagine the music.
@@purple-47 3 whole soundtracks
@@viewing845 infinite fan music.
Deep down, a tiny part of me is clinging to a hefty amount of copium, suggesting that Toby has actually been vastly understating the development progress so he can drop it as a surprise, and is going to end this newsletter casually saying "oh yeah, and chapter 3, 4, and 5 come out next week. Bye!"
I know that's almost 100% completely wrong, but still, a man can dream...
While it's unlikely, that does absolutely sound like something Toby would do.
we can only dream...
it may not be this newsletter, but perhaps the next, or the one after, etc. I kinda expect that to be the case
@@pineappleudh6561don’t think it’s a thing he would do
@@pineappleudh6561100% a toby thing to mention in a small footnote “btw chapter 3-5 are out”
It would be really cool if the chapters release like two weeks apart from each other to give each of them their spotlight.
I know. I kind of hope that happens just to give people time to play and enjoy each one individually. I find it unlikely, however, but hope it is the case.
Yeah, that’d be great. And also because I know that spoilers from the ending of Chapter 5 would be all over the Internet on the day of release. I don’t have the time to binge everything in one sitting :(
Literally! Even if I did have the time, I hate binging, much preferring to take my time playing a game and explore (might take me a week or two to finish a deltarune chapter, plus a week or so between chapters for a breather). I'll practically end up knowing everything about chapter 5 before I've finished chapter 3
That was exactly my hope. Some of the best parts of Deltarune was the community theorizing after a chapter and getting excited for the next one. If we had a short gap in between the three chapters, it would, as you said, give each one more time to shine. Although, if they are all released together, I’m sure there’s some reason Toby decided to do it that way, like they all are a part of one arc or something. Hopefully the annoying dog has a good reason for releasing them all at once.
yeah, i really hope that happens. the fandom needs time to digest all the new stuff and honestly i dont wanna have to go through the chapters really quickly over like 2 days just so i don't get spoiled online 😭😭.
I think it's possible Toby has shifted the plan to just release Chapters 3&4, and save Chapter 5 for a future release. After all, neither newsletter has mentioned Chapter 5. In which case, the September anniversary release seems more reasonable.
EDIT: As said in Sturfall's comment, the Spring 2023 newsletter made us think the game was further along than it is and the Summer 2023 Newsletter gave us more perspective. So even if my guess of Chapter 5 being left out is correct, we're probably not seeing a release this anniversary.
I could see that happening, but at the same time we're already expecting it to take longer and are willing to wait, so why speed up the release process in such an arbitrary way? It's clear that Toby has plans for chapters 3-5 to be interconnected, and its going to contain the main bulk of the story and likely have the reveal of the Knight midway through chapter 4-5, with chapter 5 being a good cliffhanger like 1 and 2 were to leave us hanging and chewing on. I feel like releasing chapter 5 with 6, or a bit after 3 and 4 would just give us an unnecessary extra cliffhanger, and waiting for all three at once would likely be better (Plus he's charging the game's full price for these chapters, so he definitely doesn't want to skimp out on the content, unlike what triple-A companies would do.)
@@MeloniestNeon I don't disagree that WE'RE willing to wait, but Toby's said that he wants the game to come out as fast as possible. Not to mention the possibility that the next release would be Chapters 5/6/7, avoiding an extra cliffhanger.
@@laytonspuzzle Again, I don't see the point of postponing Chapter 5 and making the last wait the longest, instead of making it a shorter wait to capitalize off the hype and not leave us waiting two years like this development period.
Plus, as I said above, if Toby plans to release the next three chapters at once, he probably has multiple reasons for doing so outside of fan hype and development time. The story is likely at its high point by chapter 5, and the next three chapters are seemingly even more crazy and in the midpoint of the game progression-wise and numerically, so it would only make sense for all three of the middle bridging chapters, encompassing all or most of the second act writing-wise, to be released at once for the most satisfying narrative experience.
Its not JUST about the wait and dev time, its about the finished product we receive, and the contents of that product being satisfying and worth the wait.
Doubt it otherwise he would have just released 1 chapter at a time.
@@MeloniestNeon
Why tho? We know Kris is the Knight from Ch2
What a breath of fresh air after seeing people like Yandere Dev run projects like this. I hope Toby pulls through!
“I, evax humbly submit a toast to Nicholas Alexander, for successfully managing to pirate Warcraft 3, so that he may play defense of the ancients, congratulations nick, enjoy your dota.”
oh god yeah. he's still working on it after like 10 years! i honestly dislike the guy but yandere simulator is pretty entertaining to play i'll have to admit
They're not even comparable lmao
Toby Fox just sent the news letter. And it just showed that deltarune chapter 3 is almost finished, but chapter 4 isn't on progress yet. But they said that chapter 4 is just gonna be a normal/standard chapter. So I'm guessing they are laying on to December. That's all I hav
That was just one incident. It's a stretch to say that that guy represents all indie game developers when really most are quite competent.
Well this aged like milk left out in the sun after the Fall Newsletter
sheesh, made my heart drop thinking it got cancelled.
I don't want Toby and his team to push themselves too hard, but I do want to see deltarune chapters 3-5 releasing on the game's fifth anniversary if they can do it without straining themselves.
I do. I'm tired of waiting and playing the patience game
@@freshnewcungaderowell then it’s gonna be rushed and it’s probably gonna suck. SEGA rushed Sonic 06 to release on a specific date instead of polishing it and now Sonic 06 is one of the most infamously bad games of all time.
How many anniversaries of the game has there been?
Making this in-depth and speculative video, pouring a ton of effort into it, and then seeing that Toby released the Summer newsletter only hours later is the most on-brand Toby thing that could possibly happen, and all by complete accident.
Wow, this video aged quickly _and_ poorly!
according to the newsletter, Toby and his team are currently starting work on the final section of the chapter, the chapter's equivalent to Card/Queen's Castle. Meaning Chapter 3 hasn't moved into final testing yet. That does seem odd, given the previously reported progress, so maybe they've got something up their sleeve. Or maybe they just overestimated how much they had done in the last updates.
I imagine chapter 3 must be gigantic in terms of content if it took them this long.
Definitely.
the last 10% of game development is what takes the most time by far
@@StanleyNumber427 I imagine that working on the other chapters slowed chapter 3's development down.
@@graygravity3856 But Toby stated some people have only worked on fragments of other chapters.
its gonna break the internet when it comes out its insane how 3 chapters are releasing think of the lore and how much lost bits there will be
Unfortunately Toby said that chapter 3 will be more goofy, and won’t add a lot of lore, but high hopes for 4 & 5
@@samsationeeltoby also stated that chapter 4 will be more standard so not too much deep lore on chapter 4 either
@@user-jl7xj5iz9k it's possible that chapter 4 will have some lore related stuff but chapter 5 is where the story starts climbing upwards and chapters 6 and 7 is where the story reaches its climax
@@user-jl7xj5iz9kyeah standard in this sense just seems to mean it's not getting into deltarune's version of true lab yet
@@maila3194 will probably be like 2 and have an insane amount of stuff that's hinted at but we don't understand yet
Im really hoping Toby does not actually release all 3 chapters at once, and spaces them between like 6 months, that would not only make it so chapter 3, the one with the most progress done so far, realeases earlier, it gives the team more time to focus on the finishing touches to the next chapters and the community can have their fun figuring everything in one chapter at a time instead of 3 all at once
I agree with you!
that would actually make sense
Yeah make updates to the full game that would work it would also slow down people so they focus on the individual chapters a bit more hopefully.
i agree! it would also draw up some traction to deltarune for a longer window of time. the way it could work is on steam you purchase the 3rd chapter and in the coming weeks the "free dlc" of 4 and 5 becomes available. it could be really fun and really connect the community like never before!
@ki2348 Free DLC yeah like Halo MCC
Halloween Newsletter just dropped!
And it told us two things: 1. Chapter 3 is complete! And 2. Toby Fox no longer is planning to release all three chapters when they are all complete, but instead make them available for purchase after chapter 4 is done, which is said to already have a lot of progress done. Which means that he’s going to release chapter 3 and 4 when they are ready and then focus on the next chapters afterwards. I don’t know if anyone is planning on trying to predict when 3 & 4 could release, but we might get new chapters to play very soon!
I respect your respect for game devs and emphasis on speculation.
I have a fair bit of game dev connections, and I’m gonna suggest people be prepared to wait until 2024. Based off current progress I can see them finishing content around Fall of this year, but with 3 chapters of stuff to go through testing, translation, etc, its so possible for *so* many things complicate. Id expect all that to run into early next year.
Toby does seem to like his anniversary releases, so I’d not be surprised if its Sep. 15th 2024, but that before 3-5 release they have also begun on future chapters.
Probably wait another year and a half or two on completion- assuming theres 7 chapters.
I like to have conservative estimates though, their team’s been growing and having previous content as a base really speeds things up. We could be in for a treat this year but if you don’t like being disappointed (like me) just anticipate 2024!
Absolutely! Before I started researching for this video I was fully prepared for it to come out in 2024- honestly it was the fact that Chapter 3 has started translation already that made me think it might be sooner, but of course there's nothing saying yet that 2023 is definite.
The best homestuck remake
I feel like it puts less pressure on the devs to speculate for it to take longer rather than shorter.
To be honest i dont think toby would want to wait specifically for september 2024, if he could already release the stuff in early 2024. Its just such a huge and unneeded wait.
@@Pie10000 well based off them still working on chapter 3 according to the newsletter we probably are waiting til 2025 anyways lol
I would heavily suspect Christmas 2023 as a possible candidate. Since Halloween is like a holiday for G man and the Holiday family has connections to Christmas and seems to be the other half of that equation. Plus that'd give Toby a few extra months for development on chapters 3-5, or alternatively, he could start chapter 6 and 7 planning early and have time to pepper in more lore Easter eggs.
The ebbs and flows of this fandom is what keeps me interested the most, glad to see you making some unique and cool content for the sake of this game's hype! Im all here for it, wonderful video!
NEWS LETTER COMES OUT SOON LETS HOPE THERES A DATE IN THERE!!!!
@@Cosmicdev58 I mean chapter 2 didn't just drop randomly it still had a date trailer. Plus toby could just say there's gonna be a release date trailer soon
I don't think this is going to be the case IMO
The chapters of now have been free but NOW it will cost money
I think Toby Fox is now going to be more professional this time and give a proper trailer to this amazing game
@@TransMcNugget Papyrus: WELL THAT WAS ALL FOR THE Q&A , BTW DELTARUNE COMES OUT TOMORROW
ITS COMING OUT NOW!!!!!!!!
@@yasd8493wait what really?
This videos prediction aged like majority of AAA releases.
the summer newsletter came out 12 hours after this which is funny
The risk i took was calculated. But boy, am i bad at math.
After the recent newsletter that i just got, toby says that chapter 4 is going to be one of a standard chapter, i think that means there are going to be less lore stuff then the previous 2 chapters, and be more like chapter 1. Since its going to be a "standard" chapter, i think it will take less time to make then chapter 3 and 2.
That could be- I've seen people say that they think Chapter 4 will be a smaller chapter, since the screenshots we got of it are all in the Light World, and it's sandwiched between (and being released/developed alongside) Chapters 3 and 5, which both seem to be large and/or very story significant.
Great work. This was presented in a very interesting way. And like you say. Just something fun while we wait. Hope you do more.
That's actually a nice sentiment you had at the end. I have been eagerly waiting for the full release of deltarune for years now. In that time I have seen so many videos and threads discussing theories for the story, coming up with theories of my own, looking at all of the fanart, animations, and fan games that have come from only 2 chapters of the game. In some sense it's nice that we know so little, it's exciting to wait for more chapters. Eventually not only will every deltarune chapter release, but Toby Fox will likely stop making games at some point.
If there is one thing I took away from this video, after the recent announcement Toby made...
He said something about not much to report, but also said he would be taking a rest...
The same thing he said when Ch2 finished.
Actually you know what, screw it. I got more to say.
The rational, realistic side of me says the next three chapters come out next anniversary. At the latest, but likely then so it's comfortable.
But the hyped up, excited fan in me has a better, and surprisingly reasonable idea of what's going down.
See the updates started by lumping any progress together as both ch3 and ch4. Never really sure how much of either. Makes sense, but seems to keep it ambiguous maybe for a reason.
Then the next updates pretty much make no mention of chapter 4 in progress at all. They instead imply heavy focus on chapter 3. Even go so far to point out chapter 3 hitting that final phase like this video pointed out. Which is important, but more on that shortly.
Then we get the most recent post where Toby points out no progress update, a small thing with fangamer (likely stating this so we know not to expect another spamton sweepstakes level event) and then the sleeping comment I pointed out originally. Something that like I also pointed out, really sounds like a way for Toby to drop a very subtle hint. Maybe as to... Why this year won't have a progress update.
Because instead, it's chapter 3. See, at some point Toby decided, likely because chapter 3 kept shaping up to finish before the rest, to just go all in on getting this chapter done. Why? Well, this video pointed out something that made me think of this. Toby definitely made it clear he doesn't want to make us have to wait too long for releases. That's why he just went forward with finishing chapter 2. So instead of making us wait longer for all 3, it would not be a terrible idea to just get it out this anniversary. Starting up phase 3 that early even if content wasn't 100% done would make it really likely chapter 3 could finish before September like the video points out.
But it doesn't stop there. Releasing chapter 3 now has even more benefits. Like I said, phase 3 started a while ago. Something I am guessing is that most of the work involved in phase 3 likely doesn't involve much from the same people doing phase 2. Translation for sure, porting mostly would be the person pointed out. Polish I feel could involve majority just play testing. Sure development would have to apply things resters found need cleaned up, but that's partial involvement. This means phase 3 could go full swing while phase 2 is then going on at the same time on the next chapter. With chapter 4 likely having some work done back when last reported, if chapter 3 moved to phase 3 like 6 months ago, plenty of work on chapter 4s content could have been done in that time.
Which means, getting chapter 4 ready for next year's anniversary of September is not only reasonable, but comfortable. So comfortable in fact, the same thing can happen where it enters phase 3 fairly early into next year, allowing the same thing to happen with chapter 5 development. Allowing chapter 5 to easily be finished for the anniversary after that. Which if you can't tell, sets up nicely to continue this pattern with the rest of the chapters. Which results in a nice yearly release of chapters. Meaning, we never have to wait too long.
Sounds like a really good plan for development to me. I personally would feel more satisfied with a yearly content release of deltarune and moreover having a fairly good chance of knowing when each release happens. Let's be honest, if we do get chapter 3,4, and 5 at once we are gonna consume that just as fast as 1 chapter. Then it's a good 3 years or so for the rest. Which starts 1 year from now? Dang that's long.
I mean, this probably isn't gonna happen. It's a non zero chance though I think, and makes more sense than it has any right to. But sure sounds nice.
The only thing that drifts me away from this idea is that Toby said he thinks chapter 3 is less story heavy, and that he feels a little self conscious about it
@@sapphire4310 Absolutely. The one thing that hurts this more than anything is there is a lot of implying these chapters were designed to go together, and might not work out right standalone.
I mean we have enough hints that Chapter 3 might just start and end in its dark world. With Hometown day being chapter 4, it would make sense once Chapter 3 night is over you go back to hometown, and that is Chapter 4 in the images so.
It would be kind of odd to have a chapter missing both a hometown section and a school closet darkworld section I guess.
I've been thinking the same kinda thing as this, although whether it's cos i've gone insane or not idk, though we still got a progress report with chapter 2 so we'd probably get one regardless.
@@sapphire4310 True, though reading that through my copium sunglasses makes it seem almost as if he pointed that out, then said 4 would be a more standard chapter, cos he's planning on giving us 3 and is bracing us for the elements he's self conscious about.
@@BaloonBoy7 yeah this is something I have been thinking too.
Also wild idea. Maybe the fangamer small thing is a poll. Where he asks if people want ch3 now or to wait for all three to be done.
Summer newsletter's out...and they're still not even done with Chapter 3. Rip 2023 release, and maybe even 2024 release.
2024 seems free tbh if all goes smoothly and 2023 isn't an option
The summer issue of the newsletter is out! They are currently working on the final over world area so.. I don't think that September is possible unfortunately
I got Deltarune the first day it was on switch, only because back then I got on the eshop everyday to see if there were new free games. I didn't even know what it was, and then I played Undertale, and learned Deltarune was by the same person. Fast forward to now, it is my favorite franchise of all time.
One thing I’m curious about is how Toby’s other projects fit into this timeline. As far as I’m aware, since the beginning of Deltarune, he helped produce a song for Hololive talent Houshou Marine under the alias U.N. Izu and voice acted in an episode of Cartoon Network’s We Baby Bears. I am unaware of anything else he’s done but I doubt that’s the last of it
I know he did quite a few songs for the newest Pokémon games
@@kellenoconnor4396wait really? can you link them???
@@childeofepickness idk which ones he did for S/V, haven’t actually played them, but I know he did the battle tower theme for Sw/Sh
@@kellenoconnor4396 ah ok! thanks anyway!
@@childeofepickness Toby Fox made the Tera Raid theme which then, in true Toby Fox fashion, had its main leitmotif put into the Final Boss theme. He also helped make a few of the various overworld themes, one of which ended up getting remixed for the trailer for the Pokemon Anime that I can't remember the name of (the one that takes place in Paldea with the new girl as main character)
In short, he had much more of a hand in S/V's music than the single Battle Tower song from Sw/Sh, though he was still far from the main musician.
As of the anniversary newsletter, I feel like it’s closer to maybe mid-late 2024
Judging by the wording in the 2023 summer newsletter, the progress is more closer to something like this imo:
Chapter 3 (much smaller chapter in terms of story content): 65%
Chapter 4 (normal sized chapter in terms of story content): 5%
Chapter 5 (not specified how big it will be): 5%
I think Fall 2026 would be a more likely release window
fall 2026?!?!? even fall 2025 is a stretch. i'd say if toby doesn't release chapter 3 individually it's probably going to be late 2024 early 2025
Oh hell nah
@@Radongent 2025 💀
chapter 3: 85-90%
chapter 4: 20-35%
chapter 5: ??%
@@joaovictor-nr6mi the team is only now starting to work on chapter 3's "main area" (equivalent to card castle and queen's mansion), the chapter can't be 80% done
Though i might agree with the 20% number for chapter 4? After all we did see a few chapter 4 light world areas in the 2022 dev update
The point is we gotta manage our expectations... deltarune isn't gonna be finished in quite a few years
This was an incredible video! Hope to see more like this from you in the future!
Personally, I like to think chapters 3, 4, & 5 have all been worked on at the same time and not one. Like, in a similar way to the back to the future movies. I think a lot of stuff will become interconnected and event planning will depend on things happening in previous chapters. This would probably put development ahead of the theorized schedule, maybe, sorta, ksdjkfnsldfj.
Nah, Toby's literally said they're focusing on chapter. 3. As he said in the newsletter that released a couple hours ago,
_"As was the case last time, we're focusing on Chapter 3. However, there are a few people working on pieces of later chapters, such as bullet patterns or puzzles."_
@@bro748 OMG THE NEWSLETTER RELEASED?!
man, you reminding me that deltarune will eventually end kinda hurts. ive been with this franchise since 2015 and its occupied a massive part of my mind for all those years. what are us crazy fans gonna do when deltarune is over and the community slows down
Same... although Deltarune isn't going anywhere, even after it's finished. I still replay through Undertale every once in a while, and that game is almost half as old as I am now lmao
Nah, at this pace we'll all be dead before he finishes Chapter 7
Undertale Hard Mode Full Version obvs
very enjoyable video! I really like the way you narrate stuff and the style of your videos. Might be weird to get a comment like this well after both the knowledge 3 & 4 would be separated from 5 and the predicted release date has passed, but I mean to say that your content is just That engaging. Fun watch regardless. Like you said later into the video, the anticipation and theorizing and speculating will all be over at some point, so enjoying it now is the way to go
Again, very good video
thank you!!
This aged like milk, and I like cheese. Can’t believe, but am very happy with the recent news.
great video, but I think that when Toby says that chapter 2 is the biggest I think he's saying that it's going to be the base work for the other chapters with a more complicated system than chapter 1 not the biggest lenght wise, honestly I don't think it would be possible to make a chapter less than an hour and 30 minutes if thay all follow the same structure, chapter 4 and 5 are also when the game will start to cost money, I don't think Toby would put a price on something that is shorter than chapter 2
That was something like my interpretation. Chapter 1, despite being very fleshed out, was still just a demo. A test of the systems and basic gameplay. Then chapter 2 comes with the framework for more complex elements, that can be applied to future development. That chapter gave us the ability to go back and forth between the Dark/Light world (only at the end, but still), alternate Soul modes in combat, alternate route based on player actions, more fleshed out combat systems, minigames like punch out, the systems for a central hub town that will grow with your progress in the game. This is the kind of stuff I imagine adds up to a solid amount of development time, but now that those systems are in place, it becomes much easier to use and expand upon them in the development of future chapters.
Well the only reason chapter 2 was free was because of covid! Perhaps it will be shorter, but perhaps that's why hes set on releasing multiple chapters at once!
@@stannosaurus Chapter 2 was free because it isn't even half of the game, and a 1 hour chapter would be very hard to do anyway, as well as feeling less fleshed out than the rest
I'm used to seeing you make music videos so it was quite a surprise to see a video like this. Hopefully this get's popular, the effort is insane.
1:05 wow that was a very high quality sound effect!
glad you like it! I layered a dubstep impact sample with the battle opening sound to make it
this video is awesome!
it's a complete summary of every hint we have and Logic thinking, you're amazing thank you, currently seeing the video and I'm having a blast!
This is an incredible video! Such high quality content deserves far more views.
On a more relevant note, I'm hyped for the Newsletter! Will report back after it comes out lol. I expect that chapters 3-5 will contain the main bulk of the Knight's story, with 6 being a wrap-up and 7 being a true lab/Photoshop Flowey/Asriel styled Toby Fox Classic (tm) Finale, and I'm super hyped to finally meet the Knight, who is definitely secretly Sans in an Ice-E costume!
Wait, aren't there more chapters? I certainly remember there are chapters 8-10 within the games code. Or is that a debunked myth?
@@StanleyNumber427 those were probably just placeholders (at least my guess) there was also a "chapter 0" in there so i don't think they're gonna be a thing
@@ssupermarlo My interpretation of chapter 0's existence is that it's a RESET or a loop.
But it could be wrong.
I really appreciate your work on this video!
And I'm so hyped for the upcoming chapters.
Something I would LOVE, is if Chapter 3 came out for UT's next anniversary, and then Chapter 5 comes out on Halloween for Deltarune's anniversary. (chapter 4 in the middle between them)
That would let us go through each chapter with a fine comb, like we have for 1 and 2, without there being huge gaps of suffering & waiting between them.
I don't care if I have to wait for 2024 for that either, I just don't want to have to go social media dark for what is probably equivalent to about chapters 1&2 combined lol.
Also, I'm putting genuine stock into this timeline because it's the only reason I can think of for Toby having to potentially cut the Cowboy Segment, as with how complete chapter 3 was I thought we'd be on pace for chapter 5 by next year easily. Unless of course, he was shooting for an anniversary this year. Or at least a chapter release? He might of decided to go with a single chapter release outright (the Newsletter MINIMAL tier says "Chapter" singular after all)
actually I'd love if they staggered the chapters' releases a little bit lol, if they all come out at once like Toby seems to have wanted them to I won't know which songs to cover first
@@Sturfall definitely still in chapter order, unless we get a legitimate Gaster fight by Chapter 5.
I think chapter 5 is gonna be the fever dream ending, and 7 is gonna be the like, GASTER ULTRA BUILD UP ENDING that everyone wants tbh.
I don't want Toby to hurry, he shall take his time, but I would like to see Chapter 7 being finished before he dies.
hes only 31 (32 in about 18 days) so there's nothing to be worried about. Hell, Deltarune Chapters 3-7 may be completed within the end of this 2020-2029/2030 decade.
@@vrtexxradiation I think he will be in his late 40s when Chapter 7 releases. Hopefully he won't land in some accident or get seriously ill.
@@timgorg1919Late 40's is crazy, let's assume mid 40s....
cool video! it's nice to have a deep dive into it like this.
i was looking at the updates and stuff, and i sorta have the feeling that it'd come in december because...i guess a dess tie-in. halloween seems like it'd be a _little_ tough to make work, because they didn't mention chapter 4 in the previous newsletter, but i think they could still pull it off
Most Sane Deltarune Fan:
I want Toby to see this and release the chapter just a day later than your prediction. Nothing more, nothing less. I haven’t even seen the video yet but I really really want it to happen. I will watch though I’m just gonna sleep first
Instead he released the newsletter confirming the prediction is too optimistic.
Wow, I can’t wait for the 31st……..
Nothing happened
@@Mixowwit’s a joke
As a Pikmin fan I am used to waiting but still very hyped
Zelda and metroid fans would agree
I'm so sorry you suffered this long
Half life fan here
Help
At least your waiting is nearly over
as a proseka (ensekai) player I have to wait a lot but it never gets any easier… 😔
It's okay, i'm literally desperate for the release of these chapters, it's ok.
You know... i would've loved it if Toby decided he wanted to release chapters 3-5 separately despite what he stated earlier.
If Toby did in fact put all attention to finishing chapter 3, i think we could possibly get it done untill the end of this year.
Also let's be honest, if would be a win/win for everyone! Chapter 2 provided us with so much content, that people are talking about it and making theories to this day, almost 2 years after it released. If Chapter 3 was released alone, it would definitely be enough to satisfy people for at least a year, even considering it's gonna be around lenght of Chapter 1 (possibly smaller).
In fact, in my opinion releasing all 3 chapters at once is much worse idea after all. Why? Because opposed to Chapters 1 and 2, the next 3 wouldn't feel as special separately. I love the idea of people analysing every single bit of separate chapter and predicting what comes next. Also, releasing all 3 chapters at once would just shorten the hype for waiting for the game to be completed.
Heck, i'd even propose a compromise. I'd pay for chapters 3-5 together, if it meant we'd possibly get chapter 3 this year and let's say... next 2, a year apart from each other.
I had a dream and it realesed on september 12 for some reason..
If this was a prothetic dream I'm gonna be really happy
its very unlikely from what it looks like from the summer news letter
@@ocelotmadness6287
@HeinrichHimmler-ct5xk guys anyway just had a dream it released on september 16th and it was playable in browser
and suddenly you notice 2024 is only 4 months away
Great video, finally a release theory built on facts instead of conspiracy
13:39 Toby Sox.
I am so down to get another separate short video about the summer newsletter. This was a great informational video that was well researched and although it was speculative, you made everything make sense in some way
yo, this kicks ass! you're so measured and thoughtful, love to see this in the community!
September 15 is my birthday, so you calling it a special date makes me happy. Thank you
Hey, this was pretty well put together, a fully comprehensive analysis of Deltarune's development and prediction of 3-5's release.
I liked how you emphasized that your predictions for the release were speculative and how you even stopped yourself from going too far in that one part of the video (forgot the timestamp). Yet another Deltarune theorist that knows how to stay grounded.
Also, I appreciate the shoutout to my video in the description. 👀 You've earned yourself a sub just for that, and well, for making a fantastic Deltarune theory.
Well, you were partially correct.
Chapter 3 was finished from around 1 month ago
Although, chapter 3 and 4 are now going to release together now
We will see if you're right soon enough
(late 2023 does seem a bit hopeful though, I'm estimating some time in 2024 is more likely)
Edit: apparently Chapter 3 is still not done but it's close, that probably changes up the prediction
Nice video! The editing is really nice and also funny sometimes. It's crazy the level of quality small TH-camrs have these days!
Sturfall!? I wasn't expecting to have TH-cam autoplay to a video like this, amazing work once again man!
super excited for the newsletter!!! :DDD
Thanks for one more dose of hopium before the newsletter. Tbh tho Sans's 'maybe another two years' has been the only thing that got me past the 21 months
Subscribed! Loved this analysis on a great game, hope you do more!
Solid analysis, I was thinking along the same lines myself after reading the updates.
13:30 You failed. You had to say determination!
you know what would be cool here? A timeline (or atleast I think so not sure about others
This is something I always wanted to do, but never wanted to put in the effort to do! Thanks!
Just found ur channel and you have an amazing vibe dude, great video!
I'm worried about the pace of development. Can't shake the feeling we'll wait until like, September next year to see all 3 chapters get finished. In which, the pace of development would only seem marginally faster than it was before, despite Toby hiring more people to help out and these chapters supposedly being smaller.
Would be SO happy if this wasn't the case though.
imagine if toby watched this video and slowed down production of chapter 3/4/5 just to mess with you. would kinda be funny as hell.
It's looking like a 2024 release since the newsletter told us that chapter 3 wasnt finished yet. I hope it releases before April at the latest but who knows
I think the first half of 2024 is definitely still likely! Otherwise Sans would have been wrong about it taking 2 years and that obviously can't happen under any circumstances
In all seriousness, though, we'll get another update in September with the Fall Newsletter, plus Toby has released a bigger update every September for the past 3 years. He said in the last one that the game wasn't ready to release before the end of the year- maybe he'll say something similar this time
I kinda hope it does come out as this timeline predicted just for the fact alone it would mean Sans predicted the timeline, which would be absolutely hilarious
I just realized Deltarune is already almost 5 years old... what ? Like, how ??
just a thought, but it's interesting to think that they could be deliberately leaving out info for chapter 5 so that they could do another surprise release like chapter 2
Man is the cabin fever for the community reeeeeaaally setting in huh.
Can't wait for-
Oh wait.
Your editing is phenomenal!
thanks!! it took a lot longer than I thought it would lol
@@SturfallThat's what Toby fox will say after people start praising chapters 3-5.
Ok Im Calling It, December 25th 2023, At The Latest.
It's awesome to see this video getting so much attention, it's _extremely_ well put-together and completely deserves all this support!! You have a great voice, all the theorizing make complete sense and were very well-researched, and you explained everything really clearly. And your editing is amazing too!
The *massive* amount of time and effort you put into this video really shows, every single part of it is very high-quality and done _incredibly_ well!! You did an absolutely phenomenal job on all of it, this is honestly one of the best UT/DR theory videos I've ever watched.
Thank you!! I appreciate the compliment about my voice, that's a new one lol
@@Sturfall No problem!! ^^
Look, I'm not gonna lie. I instantly skipped to the date you calculated, but as a sign of respect I'm going to play the whole video in mute while I study a little
Honorable behavior
it makes me so giddy to talk about future chapters and the fact that the newsletter is coming out so soon is the cherry on top eeeee
December Holiday
*mic dropped*
Most sane deltarune fan
Very great work!
What if it releases sometime in December to tie into Dess, or just the Holidays in general.
If not then I’m predicting chapter 6 and 7 will be released in December of whatever year that will be.
2026-2028 for chapter 6 and 7 i think😢
Its kinda a crazy but do you guys think toby will be down after this. I mean this was his big project after undertale. What could possibly be next for him
oh wow! you were right ab the newsletter
i doubt it will come out this year but i will be pleasantly surprised. My guess is sometime around halfway through 2024
Chapter 3 will not come out until he finished 4 and 5
Toby sometimes change his mind.so.chapter 4and5 not compleate,also chapter 5 os barwly start,so...if he give us chapter3 now(not for free,he need mpney after all),i think this be the win win for all
I swear to god if sans predicted the release date of the next new chapters I’m going to flip lol
I already made this release theory for myself before and i just gotta say...
I F#CKING KNEW IT
Your editing is great! Reminds me of the effort I put in to even the most inconsequential of projects. Always gotta make it presentable. Excellent work on this, seriously. Love it.
Soo, after the autom news letter... how dose the new prediction seem like? I think september or october of 2024 for cha 3 and 4, but could be later
Okay, upon reading the newsletter it became obvious that it won't come out this year.
And while it's very very sad and unfortunate for normal fans, fangame devs have another year to make a fanmade version. We've not just won time, but won an entire f*cking year to work!!! YEEEAH BABY!!
Thanks for this video Sturfall.
I want to see the summer newsletter so much
God , I'm so hyped
I loved this video! It was sweet and fun and casual and an easy listen as well (probs on the audio editing and your music!) I do have two questions: Did you use a tts to generate the audio clip of "four" that is played at 11:26 ? And if you did generate it, what is the name of said tts?
I sure did use tts- I messed up when reading the script and said '3' again, so I edited over it lol.
It's the Speech plugin in FL Studio, which also happens to be the voice that Toby used for the Gaster stuff in Undertale. There's a demo version of FL Studio if you want to try it for yourself, although I'm not 100% sure the Speech plugin comes with the demo.
aaaaaand the newsletter just arrived, might have wanted to wait for it until finishing this video since chapter 3 is like 99 percent done