There is no randomness. The world show design and order everywhere. What we call random is a manifestation of ignorance not of real randomness as randomness just doesn't exist.
@@joshuaohuka7719 this isnt new by any means, statistics has always been integral to sociology. Im a sociology major and the only math class i was required to take was statistics bc its such a big part of what we do.
@@jennifervasquezbut it says something that if a company is going to hire someone to make an analysis on a sociological subject, they’ll probably hire a statistician over a sociologist
Thank you for introducing me to this true pioneer of the future. "And then, the Earth being small, mankind will migrate into space, and will cross the airless Saharas which separate planet from planet and sun from sun. The Earth will become a Holy Land which will be visited by pilgrims from all the quarters of the Universe. Finally, men will master the forces of Nature; they will become themselves architects of systems, manufacturers of worlds." From his book in 1879. Really the biggest solve to the puzzle of man is to remember the words of House M.D.; Everyone lies.
I dunno ... I found 'Foundation' a little dull. Very INTERESTING, but lacking a continued & consistent viewpoint -- with all the characters changing with every "time jump". Something the Apple TV show has tried to correct -- but changed the plot SO significantly, as a result, that it might as well be a completely different story!
@@robjohnston1433 I agree, the foundation books are pretty mediocre in terms of story, but very strong in concepts. I think the his robot series does a lot better in that regard. Still has cool concepts, but a lot better storytelling imho.
The quote for anyone who missed or wanted to memorise/reread it “Whenever a large sample of chaotic elements are taken in hand, an unsuspected and most beautiful form of regularity proves to have been latent all along”
As a psychologist this is a great explanation of how we conduct research - larger the sample size, the more generalizable the results are to the general population.
@@elijahgavin6706 It has a large variety of uses. The ones I can think of off the top of my head are: testing the effectiveness of medicine, identifying specific patterns like symptoms of a disease, computing for the odds in gambling, testing the marketability of new products by interpreting the data gathered from surveys, analyze past data to make projections. We are also taught how to phrase our survey questions and present the data and results in a way that everyone can understand.
The drop chance for a piece of loot: 5 % Someone: Gets drop on first try Someone else: finally gets drop after 200 tries. This makes sense in a terrifying way...
It doesnt work like this. Lootbox drops depends also on how much money had you spent in the game. The game mechanics tries to get your money as much as possible and uses your human weaknesses. The best is not to play in games with lootboxes
When you really get down to it, there isn't any such thing as something completely random. It's mostly just extremely chaotic but deterministic, but it SEEMS random because sometimes the number of determinate conditions are too many to easily keep track of.
YES!! “the number of determinate conditions are too many to easily keep track of.” It’s very possible that things which we currently believe to be random (like coin flips) are things we simply haven’t identified ALL the determinate conditions involved!
@@idontknowyouthatsmypurse We know that isn't true. That's what "the EPR paradox" and "Bell's Inequality" actually prove. You can prove that the "initial conditions" aren't determined until after the randomness has finished being random, basically. Look up those terms for details.
@@roch145 you could know with certainty if a coin would land on heads or tails if you knew all the initial and external conditions. If you set it up so that everything was exactly the same, you’d get the same result always, same for a roulette wheel. In everyday life this is impossible and so yes these events are essentially random for us, but they are still technically deterministic. Quantum mechanics on the other hand IS indeterministic, e.g. you would not be able to tell if an electron is spin up or spin down until after measuring, even if you knew all the initial and external conditions. If you repeated the same experiment with the same initial and external conditions the result may not be the same.
The ball thing is pretty straightforward - at each barrier, a ball can go either left or right - it's just like flipping a coin. Most balls will have a roughly equal number of lefts and rights, not deviating too far in either direction. This basically maps the distribution you would find from flipping coins.
@@leizero I think what he meant is that when the chances for either option is 50%, mapping one option - of the same side of a coin appearing - out will probably look like a falling curve. Just because getting the same coin flip 10 times is less likely, than getting it 5 times in a row. And this concept is one way of explaining the result of this video. I feel like I didn't explain it well either, I hope you understand what I'm trying to say tho? :D
@@leizero You have a collection of states, a combination of lefts and rights. Each collection of states will move the ball to a particular line. A collection that has more lefts in it, will drop the ball to the left. A collection with more rights, drops it further right. If it has equal left and right, it gets dropped in the middle.
@@leizero You could easily get a graph similar to that by flipping a 30 coins 10x each and plotting it based on the heads vs tails of each coin (think of it as one positive and one negative).
I'm too dumb to understand it but I like to play this in front of my girl to act like I'm smart.. She saw right through it tho... She know who she chose to be with 🤣😂
This is basically explaining the difference between psychology and sociology. Everyone is random and deals with random things, but if you study a large group patterns start to form.
That's why TH-cam makes seemingly stupid decisions such as removing dislikes. An individual knows it's stupid, but YT knows it will sway the views of a portion of the masses.
Someone should make another website that just keep the track youtube dislike, like you can mod it with your app or browser thus maintaining the record of how moronic the content was.
They took away dislikes because it would definitely discredit the news clips even more than they do to themselves, plus they are attempting to silence any evidence against the mainstream train of thought so pop culture will probably dictate rules that YT will directly be influencing through a lack of pop culture noncompliance.....
They don't care about the "opinions of the masses", they did it for money. You and I do not make TH-cam money. Users do not make TH-cam money. Advertisers make TH-cam money. That is the only thing that matter to them, the users will stay regardless of how they treat the site, which is a whole thing in and of itself. But advertisers are less likely to want to put their ads on controversial videos/content creators. Removing dislikes removes the publicity of a content creator's/video's negative appeal, meaning mega-corp advertisers would have to do individual research into who they're putting ads onto, and they're not going to do that because it's all controlled at a massive scale, not by individuals. So the money gets shoveled where they want it, and into TH-cam's bank.
This remains me of Foundation by Isaac Asimov. Anyone that hasn’t read it really should. It’s basically a guy that invented a field of study that can predict the future due to human actions being predictable (until they aren’t, but it works like a charm in the first hundred+ years).
A branch of Economics, Econophysics works with this premise (that capitalism is a chaotic system) creating statistical models that seem very promising compared to the deterministic models that are currently taught in academia.
@@KA-vs7nl Econophysics explains the shape of this "self-organization". It explains prices, rates of profit and income distributions much better than previous economics. There is much more beyond the dominant ideological notions of society that need to be addressed. That is the task of social sciences.
@@KA-vs7nl you might as well say we don't need physics to understand that things will fall down to the ground or that the sun will rise every morning, but then what are you doing at a physics channel?
It will blow your mind even more to learn that sir Francis Galton is the father of eugenics who originally coined the term, so knowing that this same person who basically knew how to control human beings like insects was a eugenicist back in I think the 1800s leads one to ponder what kind of tomfoolery is about during times like these.
Predictable Chaos is also applicable in public participation events like Markets demand and supply OR to be the very specific stock market as explained in Dow Theory
And participation in taking vaccines. Through great market research, propaganda and coercion. Vaccine sales have reached the predicted target of 95% of the population. Through freedom of choice sales would have been only 30% with good marketing up to 70% but with grest coercion tactics, the 95% sales target has been hit. I don't know the expected sales targets for boosters. But I know the vaccines companies are placing orders with governments for 100% population coverage with governments taking the losses when the consumption rate is less than perfect 👌 predictable humanity. So easy to control by fear and propaganda
Nothing taught me this concept better than the Destiny 2 weapon deterministic chaos. The gun fired every 4th shot a special debuf bullet with every 4th of those being a high damage explosion if that hit a debuffed target. It did massove damage and was nearly impossible to pull it off.
This is what the Foundation series by Issac Asimov is about. Main character predicts the fall of the galactic empire and since it can't be stopped, the plan to collect all the knowledge available to allow it to reform in under 1000 years instead of the 10,000 years it would take otherwise.
My father used to say something philosophical based off this: "No matter the individual choices, in the end, few end up on the extremes of anything. Money, power, status, hard work, talent or anything. The most crowd is always in the average." He proceeded to give examples of coming to school, few reach half or an hour earlier, few reach half n hour later, many just make it and most arrive 5-10 mins before. No matter how less, there is always a possibility of extreme happenings.
I am an extremist. I won't take the experimental vaccines. But the globalist predicted this knowing only 5% of the population would not be coerced no matter what. Those predictions have been quite accurate. And is why the globalists had the conviction to pull off such an evil plan.
@@BatMan-to8im In some european countries there is over 50% of "extremists"... Vaccine and mandate for it is extreme and we shouldnt let extreme people to ruling positions
@@Inkkari9 coming from Europe myself I completely agree. Look at Australia, most are complacent and get ordered around, brought to these camps - where have I seen this before - while the few "extreme" will fight it, the other few extreme will impose it on the rest. Sydney Watson is a great channel and she sometime ago broke down in tears when she saw what's happening to Australia. Well, once a penal colony always a penal colony. I mean they shot dogs in rescue shelters so that people wouldn't gather there, for crying out loud. What's next, orphans? They also say those camps are voluntary, yet 3 people tested negative escaped them, were hunted down by the police and brought back in, meanwhile only workers get to have hazmat suit, while said 3 people were brought back into a highly infectious area ffs! It only takes a suspicion you were in contact - off to the camp with ya. People at homes now cannot go buy food, only allowed to leave in case of an medical emergency, so their dogs are what? Peeing and pooping in the house?
As an initial assignment early on while studying animation we had gotten an assignment to accurately animate 2-3 seconds of a double pendulum system and I remember calling up my mum and her brother who are physics professors to explain the phenomenon to me and it was probably one of the most technical animations I worked on so far
I once had the pleasure of toying with a triple pendulum, though it didn’t have fancy lights like the double one in the video, very fascinating to watch, my first “experiment” was trying to make it repeat the same behaviour, at first it seemed very similar but the sensitivity of it was quickly apparent, that and my inability to hold an object steady and precisely haha
This is kind of how the brain works, is basically a on and off switch, a nerve is either active or not, the thing is that there are a lot of them with a lot of inputs that create a CAO thick reaction
"When a large amount of chaotic data is analyzed a beautiful, complex pattern emerges from them" A predestined pattern of order from what we think is chaos.
Crowd sourcing they used to have a bad bucket with buttons in it at county fairs across Americana they would ask each individual to guess how many buttons are in the bucket then they would tally up and round the numbers to get an average count of buttons and every time they would hit the exact amount or close to the amount in said bucket
i think its so cool that when you draw pascals triangle on a galton board, the number on each peg tells you the exact amount of ways the ball can get to that point
I wonder, if you would track the horizontal position of the end of the double pendulum over time, can you also get some kind of normal distribution, if you could ignore friction?
Not really, as the pendulum doesnt deal with probabilities. If you start it with the exact same parameters, the result will always be the same. However, change the starting position by an infinitely small adjustment, and results differ a lot. Still no chance though.
@@ilikemoviesandmore The ball bearings are also not probabilistic. They follow exactly the same rules you just used to argue the pendulum doesn't follow a distribution. You're wrong. Also, an infinitely small adjustment = no adjustment. Perhaps you meant infinitesimal or 'very small'.
Jeez these frikkin spam bots spamming s3 xy time all the time. I have reported like 10 of them alone in this comment section. Not to meantion reporting like 20 of them in a single comment reply thread on other videos. Sigh... They really are running rampant right now.
There's a game called Conway's game of life that uses this actually, basically each day you observe a bunch of cells and set rules determines which one live, dies, or get born. Statisticians used it to predict traffic in town
I know I have it on phone. I kinda actually forgot about it lmao. One guy made a real working clock. I still dont understand how tf he managed to do it but ok.
You can even use Conway's game of life to build (a much slower) Conway's game of life. The traffic thing sounds a little fishy; I'll bet they have to use a different rule set if it's true. There is a generalization of the original Conway game where you can specify the rules of the game on I believe 16 bits. 8 specify which numbers of living neighbors will cause a living cell to die, 8 specify which numbers of living neighbors will cause a dead cell to come alive. The original rules are just 1/65536th of the game, and it's really hard to believe that they would just happen to be a model for traffic. The game is a fine example of deterministic chaos, but it isn't a very good example of statistically predictable chaos. There aren't any patterns in population or any other measurable property. Not with the original rules. Largely because the life and death rules are asymmetric and non-conservative. If you have a consistent number of cells, or if the fate of each cell depends only on the state of its neighbors and not its own state, there are obvious ways to make general predictions. If you _really_ want to go down a rabbit hole on systems of cellular automata like the game, read anything Wolfram has been working on for the last ten years or so. Wolfram is the guy behind the indispensable Mathematica software, and he is way off the deep end about describing literally everything in systems like this. It's not real fundamental physics and it never will be, because nature just has more state than that, but it's still interesting stuff, and sometimes useful in modelling.
@@davidhand9721 "The traffic thing sounds a little fishy; I'll bet they have to use a different rule set if it's true." The game with the original ruleset is turing complete, so using it to predict traffic is entirely possible. Unless you somehow have a specific reason to suspect it would be particularly difficult with the original ruleset, yet not be so with another (which I'm sure would be an incredibly complex mathematical task on its own), I'm not sure you can suggest this.
You probably already know this but "endless forms most beautiful" as a phrase from Darwin's On the Origin of Species. I believe it may be the last words of the book.
This leaves out a lot about chaos though. Specifically chaos theory, which shows that there are limits to our ability to make predictions in any complex system. The limits of our measurements mean no matter how accurate those measurements are (within realistic, finite limits), over a long enough distance errors will compound. Sure, we can predict within reasonable odds what a large crowd will do in the near future, but can we predict what they'll do two weeks from now?
Like the vaccines the predictions were 30% for, 30% against and 40% either way. Of the 30% against 25% will fall under coercion and 5% would not take it no matter what. These predictions have been spot on. The globalists have done their research and global communism has been a simple manipulation of predictable humanity. But where it could fall is the 70% of no and maybees join the 5% complete refusal for boosters and the new world order will crumble.
@ChillyCloth there is too much evidence proving that there is a legitimate New World Order, shadow worldwide government of the planet Earth is what your saying?
I was looking for a stupid comment like this. Blaming travis when it’s not his fault 🤣🤣 y’all gotta understand that he is not the one who set up the stage, barricades, camera platforms and everything else. He also doesn’t have anything to do with the operating plans. And also it’s the security and medics fault they were understaffed and not prepared.
this is exactly what I say about everything thats ever existed. Theres no such thing as random. The answeres are all there, it just has yet to be discovered
As someone with a masters degree in economics, including Ph.D. level courses in probability and distribution theory, I completely understand and agree with everything he’s saying. But I wonder if the outcome of that demonstration device would change if you dropped the little balls one at a time.
Yes it would make a slightly different pattern but in the end you would get the same result. Just like when you role dice, the dices can have 6 or 48 sides (well I’m not actually sure if that would still be considered a dice), you can throw them regularly or at the wall, out the window of a train, you still have the same chances to land on a six as to land on a 3 or a 47 in that case.
The result of dropping one at a time might match the normal distribution curve better, since there won't be any "crowding" in the middle lanes, so each ball position is truly independent.
The balls are being funnelled towards the centre, aren't they more likely to land in the centre? Wonder what the shape would be if there was no funnel, would that be more random?
Im no genius but when I was 16, I learnt about central limit theorem, when the sample size is large enough for anything, it will follow a normal distribution approximately. This should be it!
I think it depends on what fenomeno you are studying... As an example, if you are studying , let's say, the impacts of dominant X chromosomes releated disease in the male population and make a graf ,Y axis is the number of people,X axis severity of the sintoms, you won't end up with a Daltonian bell curve but instead two spikes,one very close to zero the other towards very high X values; doesn't matter how big the sample size is . That's because males have only one X chromosomes,so it's either they have the disease with full severity of the sintoms,or they don't. On the other hand if you were to do the same thing for females you will end up with a bell curve, because of epigenetic factors related to the presence of 2 X chromosomes.
@@bluescreen3877 I edited my comment. An alternative correction would be "There's no mistake in chaos". Typos, grammar, and spelling errors happen when you comment hastily.
@@dottore3870 periods go before the quotation. Also that quote is trash, just cause the word chaos sounds edgy and cool doesn’t mean you gotta write down quotes with the word in it lol
I did some work experience once with University College London’s museum dealing with some of the Galton collection. He did some great work in statistics, but was also into really questionable stuff; like phrenology and his invention of the term eugenics. Part of the work involved his collection of glass plates with the faces of criminals on, which he believed could form a composite image identifying the facial features that marked an individual inclined to crime. He also had a bizarre glove and pin counting method for essentially playing smash or pass at the entire female population of London, in an effort to quantify attractiveness.
ah, and yet you are predictable. by being one of the few yet necessary outliers you are also only another expected point on the graph, like the outer balls on the galvin board. if playing mariachi music was the norm, then the few who didn't do it would replace your space on the graph. only if every single person followed an action with no exception would that be an unusual instance
This is why we understand the basic idea of the Florida man. There are many Florida men, so we have a stereotype and idea of the level of craziness they will exhibit due to how many there are.
It's real name is a Gaussian Distribution. You can have, uniform, binomial, possion, exponential and other ones too. The reason it's so common is that when sampling any system (even if not gaussian), the distribution of the mean in each set of samples will be gaussian.
“You’re a mathematician?”
“Chaoticion, chaoticion actually.”
Please excuse Dr Malcom, he suffers from a deplorable excess of personality for a mathematician. (Smth along those lines)
Sounds like something the Joker would say
@@weaniesuckler you never watched Jurassic Park?
@@kugelblitz1557never watched it before…
@@weaniesuckler it's a decent movie. The animations in the old ones are clunky by modern standards, but the storyline gets boring in the new ones.
I always keep my hopes up for learning something new and interesting with his shorts and they don't disappoint
I didn't even expect to learn statistic from this channel
I know! This is my absolute favourite "Sciency" channel on TH-cam!
@@robjohnston1433 same here😉
@@phabidz you didnt learn anything about statistics here
stock market 🙄
"It's chaotic, not random" I've never related more
phrase the me all the way off...
@@joshuaohuka7719bro speak english
It explains me so much 😂
Its neither, its entirely predictable
There is no randomness. The world show design and order everywhere. What we call random is a manifestation of ignorance not of real randomness as randomness just doesn't exist.
Building up from stats to sociology like that was super cool
sciences are merging in the weirdest ways these days...
It's all in the prime radiant
@@joshuaohuka7719Always has been
@@joshuaohuka7719 this isnt new by any means, statistics has always been integral to sociology. Im a sociology major and the only math class i was required to take was statistics bc its such a big part of what we do.
@@jennifervasquezbut it says something that if a company is going to hire someone to make an analysis on a sociological subject, they’ll probably hire a statistician over a sociologist
This sounds like how the Antagonist explains how “Good” a little Chaos might be😂
Francis Galton who he quoted in invented eugenics
@@edwingrove1442 so, case in point? :P
That's a different definition of chaos that has nothing to do with this.
610th like (used to be 609)
This is why I love the internet 🤣
"While the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty."
- William Winwood Reade
Thank you for introducing me to this true pioneer of the future. "And then, the Earth being small, mankind will migrate into space, and will cross the airless Saharas which separate planet from planet and sun from sun. The Earth will become a Holy Land which will be visited by pilgrims from all the quarters of the Universe. Finally, men will master the forces of Nature; they will become themselves architects of systems, manufacturers of worlds." From his book in 1879.
Really the biggest solve to the puzzle of man is to remember the words of House M.D.; Everyone lies.
Nicee
Wow Sh*ts getting deep this morning!😂🤔
Try me.
The collective conscious
This explains the paradox of how each human is unique, yet history always repeats itself.
I wouldn't call it a paradox
@@peganin442 it is a kind of paradox
@@30secondsTHESIS not really though, it doesn't directly contradict itself
Any close-to-shore landing where exactly 2 boats can tie-up at any 1 time is by definition a paradox.... 🙃😁
@Christopher Grant yeah thats what history repeats itself means
My favorite Brennan Lee Mulligan quote is “chaos is just order you don’t understand yet”
When did he say this? Dimension 20?
@@tysonfontanez I believe he said it in an interview with his mom about Starstruck, which I think is in the behind the scenes for that season.
Ah yes, Psychohistory. The entire concept behind Asimov's Foundation series. A wonderful read for any Sci-Fi enjoyer.
I dunno ... I found 'Foundation' a little dull. Very INTERESTING, but lacking a continued & consistent viewpoint -- with all the characters changing with every "time jump". Something the Apple TV show has tried to correct -- but changed the plot SO significantly, as a result, that it might as well be a completely different story!
@@robjohnston1433 I haven't seen the show yet, and I understand that Asimov's style of storytelling isn't for everyone. But I love his work
@@robjohnston1433 I agree, the foundation books are pretty mediocre in terms of story, but very strong in concepts.
I think the his robot series does a lot better in that regard. Still has cool concepts, but a lot better storytelling imho.
Only know about it from the show. But I was thinking the same thing
Muh sci shit book
The quote for anyone who missed or wanted to memorise/reread it “Whenever a large sample of chaotic elements are taken in hand, an unsuspected and most beautiful form of regularity proves to have been latent all along”
Reminds me of the Central Limit Theorem
Reminds me of the hermetic law of cause and effect. Chance is simply a law unrecognized.
That's beautiful
Reminds me of standard deviation in a curve
Thank you.
And the next chapter is titled:
"SOCIAL ENGINEERING"
Go on sir ....wutchu u got
Ein malcham be like
let's goooo
nudge theory :)
Stop spreading misinformation.
As a psychologist this is a great explanation of how we conduct research - larger the sample size, the more generalizable the results are to the general population.
The last sentence was basically Psychohistory by Asimov
Basically?
And I felt very tiny
Travis scott
@@angelamercer5176 crush
im happy to be the six hundred sixty sixth liker
As a Statistics graduate, I was so happy to see the nearly perfect normal distribution of balls in each slot hahaha
What will your degree be used for
@@elijahgavin6706 It has a large variety of uses. The ones I can think of off the top of my head are: testing the effectiveness of medicine, identifying specific patterns like symptoms of a disease, computing for the odds in gambling, testing the marketability of new products by interpreting the data gathered from surveys, analyze past data to make projections. We are also taught how to phrase our survey questions and present the data and results in a way that everyone can understand.
@@Knightwalker727 yes statistics is relevant to everything I’m asking you if you know what field of statistics you want to go into
Ok I just sit here to know more about this subject.
@@elijahgavin6706 basically data science
Me: *uses statistics for game loot and drops*
Game: “he’s been spinning for 300 times now and still no legendary 😂”
The drop chance for a piece of loot: 5 %
Someone: Gets drop on first try
Someone else: finally gets drop after 200 tries.
This makes sense in a terrifying way...
@@arraywaves They say the odds of a plane crash are lower than getting in a traffic accident. We could start there 🤭
@@a-wingsgaming9162 bro- 💀☠️
It doesnt work like this. Lootbox drops depends also on how much money had you spent in the game. The game mechanics tries to get your money as much as possible and uses your human weaknesses. The best is not to play in games with lootboxes
@@a-wingsgaming9162 the odds of winning the lottery are lower than getting struck by lightning 💀
When you really get down to it, there isn't any such thing as something completely random. It's mostly just extremely chaotic but deterministic, but it SEEMS random because sometimes the number of determinate conditions are too many to easily keep track of.
Coin flips are totally random. A roulette wheel is random. Nuclear reactions are random
YES!! “the number of determinate conditions are too many to easily keep track of.”
It’s very possible that things which we currently believe to be random (like coin flips) are things we simply haven’t identified ALL the determinate conditions involved!
@@roch145wrong
@@idontknowyouthatsmypurse We know that isn't true. That's what "the EPR paradox" and "Bell's Inequality" actually prove. You can prove that the "initial conditions" aren't determined until after the randomness has finished being random, basically. Look up those terms for details.
@@roch145 you could know with certainty if a coin would land on heads or tails if you knew all the initial and external conditions. If you set it up so that everything was exactly the same, you’d get the same result always, same for a roulette wheel. In everyday life this is impossible and so yes these events are essentially random for us, but they are still technically deterministic.
Quantum mechanics on the other hand IS indeterministic, e.g. you would not be able to tell if an electron is spin up or spin down until after measuring, even if you knew all the initial and external conditions. If you repeated the same experiment with the same initial and external conditions the result may not be the same.
“Life, uhh, finds a way”
No, you💜
@@nocontender6409, XD
@@nocontender6409 wholesome
I found a way i found a waaaay
@@elbiliyin6756 😏😌😉
That’s also why people need to rely on large sample studies and not individual anecdotal evidence; their individual case might simply be an outlier.
Exactly. I’m always amazed that people can’t understand that and it’s such an easy and demonstrable concept
BLM Abortion Crossing Border Illegally Coved 18... The list goes on. All of these rely on anecdotal rather than large sample studies.
@@mr.o523 What?
@@aenetanthony BLM Abortion Crossing Border Illegally Coved 18... The list goes on. All of these rely on anecdotal rather than large sample studies.
@@mr.o523 Please use commas
The common prediction:
*"THAT person is going to Breathe!"*
@@spoopy9689
*"THAT person is making an opinion!"*
@@DatOneGuy- *They have a heart attack in their sleep*
Also some guy on YT:
I won't breathe until MrBeast replies to this video
my prediction : someone might interact with this comment but i won't react/reply
"THAT person is going to breath"
*instantly dies*
You don't predict what the average person is gonna do but how the distribution of people will evolve. Nice video!
The ball thing is pretty straightforward - at each barrier, a ball can go either left or right - it's just like flipping a coin. Most balls will have a roughly equal number of lefts and rights, not deviating too far in either direction. This basically maps the distribution you would find from flipping coins.
But you only have 2 data from flipping coins - heads and tails. How is that distributed as a Gaussian curve?
@@leizero I think what he meant is that when the chances for either option is 50%, mapping one option - of the same side of a coin appearing - out will probably look like a falling curve. Just because getting the same coin flip 10 times is less likely, than getting it 5 times in a row. And this concept is one way of explaining the result of this video.
I feel like I didn't explain it well either, I hope you understand what I'm trying to say tho? :D
@@leizero You have a collection of states, a combination of lefts and rights. Each collection of states will move the ball to a particular line. A collection that has more lefts in it, will drop the ball to the left. A collection with more rights, drops it further right. If it has equal left and right, it gets dropped in the middle.
@@leizero You could easily get a graph similar to that by flipping a 30 coins 10x each and plotting it based on the heads vs tails of each coin (think of it as one positive and one negative).
It's just a binomial distribution with 1/2 probability of success.
What I love about statistics is how philosophical you can get with it. “Foundation” by Issac Asimov really explored this pretty deep I felt.
Same, this video screams Hari Seldon Psychohistory.
Was looking for this comment
😒
@@goodgoyim9459 He explained systemic racism just now, I believe.
@@TheFireStarter1215 yes ni.. i mean blacks are systemically racist towards everyone else, well said.
I'm too dumb to understand it but I like to play this in front of my girl to act like I'm smart..
She saw right through it tho... She know who she chose to be with 🤣😂
If u were dumb you wouldn’t brave come up with such a cool creative unique TH-cam username
@@gabriellerosewood7850 what
You hate to see it
Yeah and make sure she has not done engineering otherwise it will be obvious to her
ya killing me! 🤪😊
This is basically explaining the difference between psychology and sociology. Everyone is random and deals with random things, but if you study a large group patterns start to form.
“It can be impossible to determine what any person will do, but one can (with precision) determine what the *average* person will do”
Yet not many people are interested in being labeled "average"
@@marcusr0y ergo, on average, a person likely does not want to be average according to this.. hard to beat science I know
P. T. Barnum in a nutshell to some extent.
@@cmzshalom no single person is the average. Average is an emergent property of many singular things
@@marcusr0y But they are!
"Life...uh...finds a way."-Ian Malcolm
First
More like ”Life finds a gay”, am I right? Hahaha, up top, anyone? No? Okay.
@@Bluesine_R comment this in Twitter and you're dead
says the isle's experimental rex
@@Bluesine_R 😂 broo
Bro the chaotic pendulum matched exactly to the music💀💀💀💀
That's why TH-cam makes seemingly stupid decisions such as removing dislikes. An individual knows it's stupid, but YT knows it will sway the views of a portion of the masses.
I hate that they did that
@@Corn0nTheCobb Well, you can't dislike the idea though
Someone should make another website that just keep the track youtube dislike, like you can mod it with your app or browser thus maintaining the record of how moronic the content was.
They took away dislikes because it would definitely discredit the news clips even more than they do to themselves, plus they are attempting to silence any evidence against the mainstream train of thought so pop culture will probably dictate rules that YT will directly be influencing through a lack of pop culture noncompliance.....
They don't care about the "opinions of the masses", they did it for money. You and I do not make TH-cam money. Users do not make TH-cam money. Advertisers make TH-cam money. That is the only thing that matter to them, the users will stay regardless of how they treat the site, which is a whole thing in and of itself. But advertisers are less likely to want to put their ads on controversial videos/content creators. Removing dislikes removes the publicity of a content creator's/video's negative appeal, meaning mega-corp advertisers would have to do individual research into who they're putting ads onto, and they're not going to do that because it's all controlled at a massive scale, not by individuals. So the money gets shoveled where they want it, and into TH-cam's bank.
This remains me of Foundation by Isaac Asimov. Anyone that hasn’t read it really should.
It’s basically a guy that invented a field of study that can predict the future due to human actions being predictable (until they aren’t, but it works like a charm in the first hundred+ years).
That spunds pretty interesting you might be the first person to get me to read in like 15 years
They made a show adaptation, highly advised to watch!
@@MrUtherellus Would name it for me....
@@SamiUllah-nr4ex psycho pass
@@MrUtherellus although plot wise it's become a pretty far cry from the source, but such is the destiny of most adaptations to the screen
The most profound part of this for me. Is a predictability of human beings as a chaotic system. Blew my mind
A branch of Economics, Econophysics works with this premise (that capitalism is a chaotic system) creating statistical models that seem very promising compared to the deterministic models that are currently taught in academia.
@@KevinOrePflucker lol we don't need "econophysics" to understand humans will self organize through voluntary interaction
@@KA-vs7nl Econophysics explains the shape of this "self-organization". It explains prices, rates of profit and income distributions much better than previous economics. There is much more beyond the dominant ideological notions of society that need to be addressed. That is the task of social sciences.
@@KA-vs7nl you might as well say we don't need physics to understand that things will fall down to the ground or that the sun will rise every morning, but then what are you doing at a physics channel?
It will blow your mind even more to learn that sir Francis Galton is the father of eugenics who originally coined the term, so knowing that this same person who basically knew how to control human beings like insects was a eugenicist back in I think the 1800s leads one to ponder what kind of tomfoolery is about during times like these.
Man really hit us with the Hari Seldon psychohistory bit at the end
Sorry Mr. Galton, I only see that as a mini Plinko, and I want to play with that.
Lol! That's one reason why TPIR requires you to drop one at a time!
@@westonding8953 hmmm
Predictable Chaos is also applicable in public participation events like Markets demand and supply OR to be the very specific stock market as explained in Dow Theory
And participation in taking vaccines. Through great market research, propaganda and coercion. Vaccine sales have reached the predicted target of 95% of the population. Through freedom of choice sales would have been only 30% with good marketing up to 70% but with grest coercion tactics, the 95% sales target has been hit. I don't know the expected sales targets for boosters. But I know the vaccines companies are placing orders with governments for 100% population coverage with governments taking the losses when the consumption rate is less than perfect 👌 predictable humanity. So easy to control by fear and propaganda
aka #shib
@@BatMan-to8im 🤡
@@neondemon5137 u the 🤡 buddy
Damn, this is exactly what my dad sees me as: predictable chaos 💀
It's because you always switch the TV remote thing.
@@TheAdventurerAndDiscoverer sadly, I can verify that this is not the reason, lol
@@alexadascalitei7431it's cuz your the yeller beller weller schmeladoodleamakadoo
Nothing taught me this concept better than the Destiny 2 weapon deterministic chaos. The gun fired every 4th shot a special debuf bullet with every 4th of those being a high damage explosion if that hit a debuffed target. It did massove damage and was nearly impossible to pull it off.
Its harder not to pull that off
Is that new? I haven't touched the game in years. Good times running trials carries with my friends back in the day.
@stringz4862 don't go back. My brothers still play and they only have bad things to say about it.
@@eddieford9373 as does every destiny player XD. Thats what gives it its charm
brainrot
"I'm not like other girls"
Great example lmao
One of my favorites
Ahahahahahah
"I'm interesting person with good humor"
- The one ball that falls out of the glass
This is what the Foundation series by Issac Asimov is about. Main character predicts the fall of the galactic empire and since it can't be stopped, the plan to collect all the knowledge available to allow it to reform in under 1000 years instead of the 10,000 years it would take otherwise.
Call me a Mule but i dont believe that
@@herscher1297 it's a series of sci-fi novels, you don't have to believe it but it does raise some important questions
@@angelicat8540 ...have you read them?
@@herscher1297 I have just finished the first book actually.
Loved the show. I hope it keeps going
My father used to say something philosophical based off this:
"No matter the individual choices, in the end, few end up on the extremes of anything. Money, power, status, hard work, talent or anything. The most crowd is always in the average."
He proceeded to give examples of coming to school, few reach half or an hour earlier, few reach half n hour later, many just make it and most arrive 5-10 mins before. No matter how less, there is always a possibility of extreme happenings.
I am an extremist. I won't take the experimental vaccines. But the globalist predicted this knowing only 5% of the population would not be coerced no matter what. Those predictions have been quite accurate. And is why the globalists had the conviction to pull off such an evil plan.
@@BatMan-to8im 🙄
@@BatMan-to8im In some european countries there is over 50% of "extremists"... Vaccine and mandate for it is extreme and we shouldnt let extreme people to ruling positions
@@Inkkari9 coming from Europe myself I completely agree.
Look at Australia, most are complacent and get ordered around, brought to these camps - where have I seen this before - while the few "extreme" will fight it, the other few extreme will impose it on the rest. Sydney Watson is a great channel and she sometime ago broke down in tears when she saw what's happening to Australia. Well, once a penal colony always a penal colony. I mean they shot dogs in rescue shelters so that people wouldn't gather there, for crying out loud. What's next, orphans? They also say those camps are voluntary, yet 3 people tested negative escaped them, were hunted down by the police and brought back in, meanwhile only workers get to have hazmat suit, while said 3 people were brought back into a highly infectious area ffs! It only takes a suspicion you were in contact - off to the camp with ya. People at homes now cannot go buy food, only allowed to leave in case of an medical emergency, so their dogs are what? Peeing and pooping in the house?
@@belladonnahigh9206 As a double-vaccinated Queenslander, I'd just like to say, what in the hell are you talking about?????
So if aliens are studying us, we must be forming some easily predictable patterns
I’m glad I didn’t miss out on that week of math class. I used this information for every day life situations. I use it on relationships, business etc.
Can u teach me? It's seems like a useful ability.
How?
Senpai, please enlighten us 😭
As an initial assignment early on while studying animation we had gotten an assignment to accurately animate 2-3 seconds of a double pendulum system and I remember calling up my mum and her brother who are physics professors to explain the phenomenon to me and it was probably one of the most technical animations I worked on so far
I once had the pleasure of toying with a triple pendulum, though it didn’t have fancy lights like the double one in the video, very fascinating to watch, my first “experiment” was trying to make it repeat the same behaviour, at first it seemed very similar but the sensitivity of it was quickly apparent, that and my inability to hold an object steady and precisely haha
So basically nothing is more random than my girlfriend's mood
This is one of the most interesting videos I’ve seen in a long time. Thank you for educating me!
*When you accidentally scroll at the last 5 seconds and you would have to watch the whole video again*
If its the kast video I'm planning to watch, i go yo history and scroll and watcb
@@anonymoususer602 Yeah but some people like to stay in the loop of shorts and not leave
Can you fast forward and rewind shorts?
@@One.Zero.One101 if you open them from main channel
@@stepstony3683 mhm
Bro can make physics so deep 💀
Does this also explains why everything in a molecular level is super complicated while every object it forms can be easily explained?
Yes, nature is probabilistic in atomic level. Big objects look deterministic and simple but are made of undeterministic components.
me as a nano student : yeah, our study is chaos for sure
This is kind of how the brain works, is basically a on and off switch, a nerve is either active or not, the thing is that there are a lot of them with a lot of inputs that create a CAO thick reaction
This Short is more packed with info than usual. Well done, Action Lab.
knawledge
Normal distribution always coming in clutch
“Life -uh…. Finds a way…”
I’m dead 😂😂
took way too long to find an ian malcom reference
As a Ian Malcolm fan I'VE BEEN SUMMONED
@@jpb620 I was looking for one too 😂
"random" just means "too hard to predict"
"When a large amount of chaotic data is analyzed a beautiful, complex pattern emerges from them" A predestined pattern of order from what we think is chaos.
Childish philosophy. Just further proof we are not far removed for pre-socrates.
@@Jay-ft3xh Care to further explain your genius to us lesser beings, o great one?
"In all chaos there is a cosmos, in all disorder a secret order"
There is a pattern to it but that doesn’t mean it’s not chaos
i thought this was just going to be just mathematical statistics, not predicting human chaos. but that's pretty cool
imagine what facebook can (is doing) do with so much user data.
edit - is doing
Shhh don't tell them that!
"Can"
heck, they even causes some chaos on some affected countries.
Crowd sourcing they used to have a bad bucket with buttons in it at county fairs across Americana they would ask each individual to guess how many buttons are in the bucket then they would tally up and round the numbers to get an average count of buttons and every time they would hit the exact amount or close to the amount in said bucket
i think its so cool that when you draw pascals triangle on a galton board, the number on each peg tells you the exact amount of ways the ball can get to that point
When you dropped the double pendulum when it was dark, it’s so satisfying watching it fit with the music. 😌
Some people call it art… while I call it food
I wonder, if you would track the horizontal position of the end of the double pendulum over time, can you also get some kind of normal distribution, if you could ignore friction?
Not really, as the pendulum doesnt deal with probabilities. If you start it with the exact same parameters, the result will always be the same. However, change the starting position by an infinitely small adjustment, and results differ a lot. Still no chance though.
@@ilikemoviesandmore The ball bearings are also not probabilistic. They follow exactly the same rules you just used to argue the pendulum doesn't follow a distribution. You're wrong. Also, an infinitely small adjustment = no adjustment. Perhaps you meant infinitesimal or 'very small'.
@@theclockworkcadaver7025 Damn Mr. PhD! Great work!
@@ilikemoviesandmore And Is there any repetition in the movement of the pendulum after some time?
Jeez these frikkin spam bots spamming s3 xy time all the time. I have reported like 10 of them alone in this comment section. Not to meantion reporting like 20 of them in a single comment reply thread on other videos. Sigh... They really are running rampant right now.
are there random things, isn’t everything that seems random it’s „just“ complex?
I remember VSauce made a video on this once. If I well recall, some things in quantum physics are truly random.
There's a game called Conway's game of life that uses this actually, basically each day you observe a bunch of cells and set rules determines which one live, dies, or get born. Statisticians used it to predict traffic in town
I know I have it on phone. I kinda actually forgot about it lmao. One guy made a real working clock. I still dont understand how tf he managed to do it but ok.
@@Overlyamplified The game is Turing complete, so you *could* theoretically train a neural network in it, but uhhh... bad idea to try.
@@Overlyamplified I never knew you could run it on mobile! Is it like a mobile app or website or something?
You can even use Conway's game of life to build (a much slower) Conway's game of life.
The traffic thing sounds a little fishy; I'll bet they have to use a different rule set if it's true. There is a generalization of the original Conway game where you can specify the rules of the game on I believe 16 bits. 8 specify which numbers of living neighbors will cause a living cell to die, 8 specify which numbers of living neighbors will cause a dead cell to come alive. The original rules are just 1/65536th of the game, and it's really hard to believe that they would just happen to be a model for traffic.
The game is a fine example of deterministic chaos, but it isn't a very good example of statistically predictable chaos. There aren't any patterns in population or any other measurable property. Not with the original rules. Largely because the life and death rules are asymmetric and non-conservative. If you have a consistent number of cells, or if the fate of each cell depends only on the state of its neighbors and not its own state, there are obvious ways to make general predictions.
If you _really_ want to go down a rabbit hole on systems of cellular automata like the game, read anything Wolfram has been working on for the last ten years or so. Wolfram is the guy behind the indispensable Mathematica software, and he is way off the deep end about describing literally everything in systems like this. It's not real fundamental physics and it never will be, because nature just has more state than that, but it's still interesting stuff, and sometimes useful in modelling.
@@davidhand9721
"The traffic thing sounds a little fishy; I'll bet they have to use a different rule set if it's true."
The game with the original ruleset is turing complete, so using it to predict traffic is entirely possible.
Unless you somehow have a specific reason to suspect it would be particularly difficult with the original ruleset, yet not be so with another (which I'm sure would be an incredibly complex mathematical task on its own), I'm not sure you can suggest this.
I mean, if you think about it, nothing is random. Everything is just chaotic, we just don't have enough information yet
So that is where the title of the song comes, Endless forms most beautiful.
Hey, a Nightwish fan!
You probably already know this but "endless forms most beautiful" as a phrase from Darwin's On the Origin of Species. I believe it may be the last words of the book.
" Bill Look at them down there,they look like ants"
"They are ANTS!"
“Completely chaotic but not random”
**Bruh you just described my mental health-**
So you’ll be joining TikTok?
Get help
And this is how I make bank at the Casino playing Roulette.
This leaves out a lot about chaos though. Specifically chaos theory, which shows that there are limits to our ability to make predictions in any complex system. The limits of our measurements mean no matter how accurate those measurements are (within realistic, finite limits), over a long enough distance errors will compound.
Sure, we can predict within reasonable odds what a large crowd will do in the near future, but can we predict what they'll do two weeks from now?
In other words, life uh... finds a way
Like the vaccines the predictions were 30% for, 30% against and 40% either way. Of the 30% against 25% will fall under coercion and 5% would not take it no matter what.
These predictions have been spot on. The globalists have done their research and global communism has been a simple manipulation of predictable humanity. But where it could fall is the 70% of no and maybees join the 5% complete refusal for boosters and the new world order will crumble.
A large chaotic group will always cross the southern boarder into the United States (lmao cause its true)
@@BatMan-to8im love them there conspiracy whoja-ma whach-a-ma theories eh
@ChillyCloth there is too much evidence proving that there is a legitimate New World Order, shadow worldwide government of the planet Earth is what your saying?
"Excuse me Sir, do you have a moment to talk about Psychohistory and our savior Hari Seldon?"
I wish during statistics course In college, they would show this to us. I would've learned much easier
This is actually beautiful and changed my day
"when you have a large number of people you can predict what the average person is going to do"
Well Travis Scott for sure didn't.
Apparently they forgot to step on your head , i feel bad for your family that you lived.
That's what i said🤔
Lol, I was looking for a comment like this.
I was looking for a stupid comment like this. Blaming travis when it’s not his fault 🤣🤣 y’all gotta understand that he is not the one who set up the stage, barricades, camera platforms and everything else. He also doesn’t have anything to do with the operating plans. And also it’s the security and medics fault they were understaffed and not prepared.
@@jboss4671 if you're gonna take credit for the success better take credit for the debt.
There's one in the physics building at UCSC, it is well greased and can spin for like 10 mins straight
"Predict what large masses of people will do"
**Isaac Asimov has entered the chat**
this is exactly what I say about everything thats ever existed. Theres no such thing as random. The answeres are all there, it just has yet to be discovered
And that's chaos theory- Ian Malcom Jurassic Park
For some reason I read the title as “predictable cheese”
In large enough samples cheese can be predictable too.
THAT’S chaos
“Never let ‘em know your next move”
...until The Mule shows up.
This is impressive just for being a way to simplify the concepts of probability and entropy
As someone with a masters degree in economics, including Ph.D. level courses in probability and distribution theory, I completely understand and agree with everything he’s saying. But I wonder if the outcome of that demonstration device would change if you dropped the little balls one at a time.
Yes it would make a slightly different pattern but in the end you would get the same result. Just like when you role dice, the dices can have 6 or 48 sides (well I’m not actually sure if that would still be considered a dice), you can throw them regularly or at the wall, out the window of a train, you still have the same chances to land on a six as to land on a 3 or a 47 in that case.
The result of dropping one at a time might match the normal distribution curve better, since there won't be any "crowding" in the middle lanes, so each ball position is truly independent.
It wouldn't be a large chaotic sample then if it's 1 at a time.
The balls are being funnelled towards the centre, aren't they more likely to land in the centre? Wonder what the shape would be if there was no funnel, would that be more random?
@@hsooch The funnel is just there to get the balls into the device. They immediately encounter a peg and start bouncing.
Average person: wakes up
Me: Emerges from the deepest of the underworld
Edgy
What
Bro just called us all NPCs, without calling us NPCs
We're not in a game, so there are no players
So yes, everything is an npc, even my pet rock
Life is a game
non problematic cars?
Im no genius but when I was 16, I learnt about central limit theorem, when the sample size is large enough for anything, it will follow a normal distribution approximately. This should be it!
I think it depends on what fenomeno you are studying...
As an example, if you are studying , let's say, the impacts of dominant X chromosomes releated disease in the male population and make a graf ,Y axis is the number of people,X axis severity of the sintoms, you won't end up with a Daltonian bell curve but instead two spikes,one very close to zero the other towards very high X values; doesn't matter how big the sample size is .
That's because males have only one X chromosomes,so it's either they have the disease with full severity of the sintoms,or they don't.
On the other hand if you were to do the same thing for females you will end up with a bell curve, because of epigenetic factors related to the presence of 2 X chromosomes.
The second video of the pendulum syncs so satisfyingly with the music
Also look up the Lorenz Attractor, the Butterfly effect and how his systems also start chaotic but eventually they look so elegant
" Perdictable as planned "
hmm 40k ref
“Order out of chaos” ... says the Mason.
"It's completely chaotic, not random" I'll keep that quote in mind (for when I want to describe a character)
Also a quote that I like " There are no mistakes in chaos".
@@bluescreen3877 I edited my comment. An alternative correction would be "There's no mistake in chaos".
Typos, grammar, and spelling errors happen when you comment hastily.
Nice. Lol
@@dottore3870 it's essentially another way of saying "method in the madness" and I think that's cool lol
@@dottore3870 periods go before the quotation. Also that quote is trash, just cause the word chaos sounds edgy and cool doesn’t mean you gotta write down quotes with the word in it lol
As usual, amazingly interesting videos! thank you!
I did some work experience once with University College London’s museum dealing with some of the Galton collection. He did some great work in statistics, but was also into really questionable stuff; like phrenology and his invention of the term eugenics. Part of the work involved his collection of glass plates with the faces of criminals on, which he believed could form a composite image identifying the facial features that marked an individual inclined to crime. He also had a bizarre glove and pin counting method for essentially playing smash or pass at the entire female population of London, in an effort to quantify attractiveness.
And yet the law of entropy states that we can never go from a state of less order to a state of more order.
The last part of the video is just AMAZING, that explanation was truly a satisfaction
“Predict what someone is gonna do”
*Me who rips his clothes off and plays mariachi music with a sombrero in a large crowd*
"Enemy can't know what you are doing
If you don't even know what you are doing"
- Sun Tzu ~The Art of War
ah, and yet you are predictable. by being one of the few yet necessary outliers you are also only another expected point on the graph, like the outer balls on the galvin board. if playing mariachi music was the norm, then the few who didn't do it would replace your space on the graph. only if every single person followed an action with no exception would that be an unusual instance
for those who still doesnt understand, go watch “Foundation” a series at apple tv
and the books, the books are good too
Exactly. The government and all media knows this.
This is why we understand the basic idea of the Florida man. There are many Florida men, so we have a stereotype and idea of the level of craziness they will exhibit due to how many there are.
Me, a Florida man: Interesting…
That music perfectly matching with the pendulum was just amazing
We call this the bell curve, almost everything revolves around this curve for statistics.
It's real name is a Gaussian Distribution. You can have, uniform, binomial, possion, exponential and other ones too. The reason it's so common is that when sampling any system (even if not gaussian), the distribution of the mean in each set of samples will be gaussian.
The end is more real than you think and they’ve known it for centuries.
Took one class of stats in college and I remember to start seeing it everywhere, I mean everywhere.
it's an eye opener isn't it?!