It’s one of those things where it’s so hard to be precise, that people don’t spend as much time thinking about it… But yeah, I think it’s really high. Thanks for watching 🙏
@@AlphaHoarder hahaha, of course it was on purpose! 😱😜. and sure! honestly did not realize you had a channel too. very nice. subbed right away, of course! 😁👊🏻
A couple assertions were off the mark. This game was instantly popular. It sold out in a couple weeks when they thought the print run would last months. Beta went as fast, as did Arabian Nights. Sleeves were prevalent within 6 months. It was insane. Alphas were, as you said, cheaper than Betas for the longest time. Some of us figured out the score, so to speak, instantly, in that these cards could not be replaced, and I know a lot of people considered an Alpha set as the Holy Grail of Magic the Gathering from the get go in 1993. I actually think them not being tournament legal saved them, so 30 percent near mint is probably correct.
Thanks for the points of correction. In my neck of the woods, sleeves didn’t show up for quite a while, but certainly within the first 24 months prices had started climbing and I’m sure some people were tuned in. I was a bit young then, so maybe that’s why my experience was a little different. As for the instantly popular thing, I think I miss spoke slightly. I was aware the game was a knockout success, but I was trying to say that the first round of people who bought the product had no expectation of it being that. I think, today, some people imagine that it was obvious the first version would be collectible and valuable right off the bat, but it definitely was not. Thanks for the comment and the insight!
@@AlphaHoarder Yeah, to be fair I was in grad school in California at the time when all this hit and happened to be a game convention regular (so in the proverbial right place at the right time). This was a seismic shift in gaming, and its timing was perfect as the gaming industry was ripe for the "next big thing" as things had grown stagnant. There just wasn't enough of it for the demand until we got to Revised and The Dark -- but that's another story.
Great topic. Honestly, even getting into Unlimited it is exceptionally hard to find truly near mint cards in my experience. I started during revised and I remember even back then everyones cards were trashed. I was a comic collector already so I kept mine in sleeves from almost day one but my friends used to carry decks with rubber bands around them. Trading was a nightmare with them unless we were at the card store and they were pulling the cards in the parking lot. I kept some of those early cards pack fresh but they remain in my hoard rather than in circulation. :) I have some of my vintage collection on my channel if you want to see it.
Yeah for sure, and those white borders can be really deceiving. I def remember kids throwing a deck into their backpack with a rubber band and their pencils and stuff. Brutal! I’ll check out your channel, I love seeing the old stuff 👍👍
Seriously, where are the massive amounts of LP & NM Unlimited rares? Prices are skyrocketing on them and yet no new supply is hitting the market. It's wild. Check out the non-RL staples like Shivan, Royal Assassin, et al.
Totally! I just did a little searching and you’re right. I’m actually thinking about completing my unlimied set but at this rate it’s going to be hard to even find the cards never mind how outlandish the prices will be.
Those are super nice alpha cards. Congrats on picking those up, I have noticed that my really good condition alpha cards are generally not that playable in the game or somewhat different in what they do that to the point that some people wouldnt want to play them. All of my 'obviously good in the eyes of 1993 kids' cards like serra angel, llanowar elves, regrowth etc are all way more played than the other alpha cards ive picked up over the years. I would also say the true NM/Mint cards are insanely rare, I think we would have an extremely difficult time finding 2 nm playsets (8 cards total) of some of the rares or uncommons, even if we had unlimited funds.
I very much agree with you. Assuming my 90% attrition rate isn’t wildly off, it doesn’t even try to estimate the attrition rate of cards permanently leaving the market from collectors, players, …hoarders. Once you factor that in, 2 nm playsets of MANY cards would be near impossible!
@@AlphaHoarder I'm curious what your opinion on some cards I found in a local (online) store would be, although I think I already know the answer after watching your videos 😂. I found 3 spell blast for $75 each and 2 power sink for $120 each. They're listed as mint but over here it could easily be mp or hp even if it's listed as nm. I've been thinking about buying them for a while but as they're quite pricey I just kept putting it off for other stuff. After watching your videos I'm starting to think that if they are mint condition then they are a must but at those prices and I shouldn't wait any longer. What do you think? Also secondary question, what price would you pay for random alpha commons? I've seen stuff like grizzly bear, iron claw orcs etc for 75-150 but I kept thinking it's a bit too expensive
Far be it for me to tell you what to do with your money- everyone’s portfolio and personal finances are very different! But if you’re asking what I would do, I am actively buying the cards you mentioned in NM at those price points. Some, like Grizzly Bears, will be hard to get under $100. Spell Blast at $75 for a very clean one is on my list for sure. Of course it may be that they are too expensive, as you were worrying, and it’s possible we see prices decline in the coming years. Don’t let anyone tell you they know for sure. But me personally, I am allocating some discretionary spending on the belief/assumption that is not the case. I suspect the price will continue to rise over a 5yr timeline, at least, and these prices will be ancient history by then.
@@AlphaHoarder yeah I also think they will continue to rise although it's becoming increasingly difficult to find people who are able to afford them. I think beta will also become super expensive like 100+ for every card in the future. The main things I have been picking up lately are collectors edition and old frame foils. I really think old frame foils are at the point Abu cards were around 2015. People know they're rare and that they are nice and they've had a bit of a price increase but they haven't properly started buying them en masse yet.
I absolutely love when someone lists a card as mint other than this binder ding, besides this huge scratch the card is NM, aside from the crease it's Pack Fresh 🤣🤣🤣
I think your 50% number could be accurate for some of the rare cards. I can't imagine people cared about Alpha lifelaces quite like Power that were always valuable. I suspect high-value cards like Black Lotus might be closer to 80%, though, because they were just harder to "throwaway" or "forget about". I wouldn't mind the 50% number being correct, though. Makes mine that much more scarce :) The methodology for NM (25%) seems like a practical guess. You gotta think people either "put them in a binder and forgot about them" or played with them. So 1/4 seems logical.
Definitely a lot of guesswork, so tweak my assumptions wherever you feel I’m drifting, but yeah I think the attrition is really high. Power cards very quickly became a thing, and they are over represented in the graded pop reports, so I agree those prob survive in better numbers. It is crazy to image that, quite possibly, only 100 really minty copies of Animate Wall (for example) might still exist 🤯
@@AlphaHoarder Yes, that seems VERY likely on Animate Wall. Even in Alpha 40 league, I've never seen one played. So, I can't imagine back in the day people found much use for it other than having awesome art in your binder or throwing it in a box and forgetting about it haha
Love your videos, glad I found your channel. Would like to hear your opinion on storing these types of cards, what sleeves/maps/storage do you prefer and why. Maybe an idea for a video?
Great idea, thanks for that -- I'll put something together! I have a few systems for different things, could be useful to explore. Appreciate the comment, and thanks for watching.
I personally go after played condition cards, but maybe that isn’t out of preference, but out of financial necessity lol. Plus then I don’t feel so bad handling a card that I know was played on a side walk without a sleeve. Especially if value comes in large part from playability. I will say I’m a bit screwed if the reprint duals because I’m not sure how well the beat up revised copies will hold up.
My personal opinion is that revised duals are safest place to play, in this speculative hobby. The liquidity is as good as it gets, so you can probably always move them without too much sacrifice against market value. I actually have a video coming out maybe next week (I think?) about played condition cards vs nm. There are plenty of good reasons to go that way. NM is definitely not the only game in town. Appreciate you continuing to dig through the channel :-)
I've kwnoticed that alot of the corners have a slight bend or a burr from the cutting process. Ide imagine it was some sort of press that cut them out. Does that affect condition?
You’re correct, the cutting die pressed the cards from behind and produced that “corner flip.” That was never considered a condition issue in the past, as it was to factory standard and consistent across the print run, but I’ve heard a lot of grumbling the last 18 months that corners are getting brutal grades from BGS. It is as if some of their graders aren’t aware of the production process 🤔
What is your opinion on Collector's Edition / International Edition cards? Do you think they are underappreciated? There is a big controversy about them, being not tournament legal, having weird card back etc. Condition wise - they are either packfresh mint or played (thanks to pointy corners)
That is a complicated one and I can understand the reason for the controversy. I’ll probably have to collect my thoughts on that before I can give an intelligible opinion… it seems clear to me that both players and collectors are interested in those cards, but your question is the right one: are they *under* appreciated (vs already properly appreciated)? I’ll have to get back to you on that one… let me put it on my list for a future video 👍👍
Have you found certain card types to be more rare to find in NM? For example an enchantment lime bad moon might be more common because once it's played it doesn't require you to do anything else with the card while a creature card like royal assassin would tap a lot to use the ability. I would think enchantment cards would be easier to find NM then most other card types.
Oh, that’s interesting. There is definitely a difference in the availability of near mints that were not very playable compared to the ones that were, but I didn’t considered drilling in further than that as far as what role the cards might’ve played on the battlefield. I’m gonna have to think about that one 🤔
There is a problem in MTG card pricing. Sire the black lotus is a great iconic card but if there are less say allha birds of paradise 9.5 then black lotus then that the Bop should be more valuable. Let's be serious playable for these cards should not be a factor. No one is buying an alpha lotus ( especially NM) to play with. So if playability is removed shouldn't rarity reign supreme in colecting?
I agree with some of that, although I think playability is still a factor because it’s a component of nostalgia, even if the collector isn’t looking to play with the cards now. But yeah, a card like birds… could have a lot of upside.
You are definitely not the only one! So much of the nostalgia has to do with the artwork, so it makes total sense- but for me, nothing beats a clean card. Not sure why 🤔
Thanks, and that's a really good point/question. It definitely should be considered, since the market has made it clear that centering moves price a lot. Unfortunately, getting data on that (what % of Mana Vaults were well centered??) is anecdotal or nonexistent. For this reason, I didn't factor it in for the video. Myself when collecting, if I have scans/pics available, I always go for well-centered cards, but on many markets it can be hard to know what you're getting, so I'm often happy with a minty card even when off center.
I think that 90% attrition is way too low for “pack fresh”. You’re telling me 10% of all alpha rares from 30 YEARS ago have never been played with and don’t have a ding, crease, warp, etc AND have been stored perfectly in all that time? I don’t believe it.
I would say 10% is the best possible case 🙂 based on the listings data and pop reports, I don’t think anyone can argue for more than that. However, I definitely think you could argue for less than that.
@@AlphaHoarder wizards says that they only produced about a million cards for alpha. Not all sold and I believe alot of kids,parents,and places that the cards were stored destroyed a huge percent of them. Rudy from alpha investments owns a big percent. There are probably only a handful of each card that are in light play or good condition. Beta had a few million print run and there are alittle more good condition cards but its close. I was there when alpha and beta were released and the distributors had a hard time selling.
One thing you’re accounting for is the percent of the cards have vanished into peoples collections… Such as Rudy. I agree with you, and think that is a very relevant piece. I don’t know how to estimate that even in principal, which is why I didn’t talk about it in the video. So if you are saying *available* cards in the world is even worse than my 91%, then I think I would agree with you. Thanks for the perspective, I appreciate it!
was just thinking about commenting about attrition on one of your other videos. I think it's a point that many people overlook. thanks for the video!
It’s one of those things where it’s so hard to be precise, that people don’t spend as much time thinking about it… But yeah, I think it’s really high. Thanks for watching 🙏
very easy to damage! ‘drops mana flair’ 😂😂😜!
great vid, buddy! awesome rares! 😱😁👊🏻
I know I was laughing after the video 🤦♂️ let’s pretend it was a purposeful demonstration of the point 🤣 Thanks for popping over here and watching!!
@@AlphaHoarder hahaha, of course it was on purpose! 😱😜. and sure! honestly did not realize you had a channel too. very nice. subbed right away, of course! 😁👊🏻
🤜🤛 u rock!
Thanks for having your playmat right-side up, Mike- very relieving to my OCD lol
🤣 doing my best for you. I might have a video or two queued up from before I fixed it, but almost in the clear!
A couple assertions were off the mark. This game was instantly popular. It sold out in a couple weeks when they thought the print run would last months. Beta went as fast, as did Arabian Nights. Sleeves were prevalent within 6 months. It was insane. Alphas were, as you said, cheaper than Betas for the longest time. Some of us figured out the score, so to speak, instantly, in that these cards could not be replaced, and I know a lot of people considered an Alpha set as the Holy Grail of Magic the Gathering from the get go in 1993. I actually think them not being tournament legal saved them, so 30 percent near mint is probably correct.
Thanks for the points of correction. In my neck of the woods, sleeves didn’t show up for quite a while, but certainly within the first 24 months prices had started climbing and I’m sure some people were tuned in. I was a bit young then, so maybe that’s why my experience was a little different. As for the instantly popular thing, I think I miss spoke slightly. I was aware the game was a knockout success, but I was trying to say that the first round of people who bought the product had no expectation of it being that. I think, today, some people imagine that it was obvious the first version would be collectible and valuable right off the bat, but it definitely was not. Thanks for the comment and the insight!
@@AlphaHoarder Yeah, to be fair I was in grad school in California at the time when all this hit and happened to be a game convention regular (so in the proverbial right place at the right time). This was a seismic shift in gaming, and its timing was perfect as the gaming industry was ripe for the "next big thing" as things had grown stagnant. There just wasn't enough of it for the demand until we got to Revised and The Dark -- but that's another story.
Great topic. Honestly, even getting into Unlimited it is exceptionally hard to find truly near mint cards in my experience. I started during revised and I remember even back then everyones cards were trashed. I was a comic collector already so I kept mine in sleeves from almost day one but my friends used to carry decks with rubber bands around them. Trading was a nightmare with them unless we were at the card store and they were pulling the cards in the parking lot. I kept some of those early cards pack fresh but they remain in my hoard rather than in circulation. :) I have some of my vintage collection on my channel if you want to see it.
Yeah for sure, and those white borders can be really deceiving. I def remember kids throwing a deck into their backpack with a rubber band and their pencils and stuff. Brutal! I’ll check out your channel, I love seeing the old stuff 👍👍
Seriously, where are the massive amounts of LP & NM Unlimited rares?
Prices are skyrocketing on them and yet no new supply is hitting the market. It's wild.
Check out the non-RL staples like Shivan, Royal Assassin, et al.
Totally! I just did a little searching and you’re right. I’m actually thinking about completing my unlimied set but at this rate it’s going to be hard to even find the cards never mind how outlandish the prices will be.
Unlimited is so undervalued- Mike the A.H. made a great video about this recently
Enjoying the content Mike, great job with your videos. Keep up the good work, and save some Alphas for the rest of us. 😁
Thanks for that feedback! I’ll try not to hoard them all 😅
Those are super nice alpha cards. Congrats on picking those up, I have noticed that my really good condition alpha cards are generally not that playable in the game or somewhat different in what they do that to the point that some people wouldnt want to play them. All of my 'obviously good in the eyes of 1993 kids' cards like serra angel, llanowar elves, regrowth etc are all way more played than the other alpha cards ive picked up over the years. I would also say the true NM/Mint cards are insanely rare, I think we would have an extremely difficult time finding 2 nm playsets (8 cards total) of some of the rares or uncommons, even if we had unlimited funds.
I very much agree with you. Assuming my 90% attrition rate isn’t wildly off, it doesn’t even try to estimate the attrition rate of cards permanently leaving the market from collectors, players, …hoarders. Once you factor that in, 2 nm playsets of MANY cards would be near impossible!
@@AlphaHoarder I'm curious what your opinion on some cards I found in a local (online) store would be, although I think I already know the answer after watching your videos 😂. I found 3 spell blast for $75 each and 2 power sink for $120 each. They're listed as mint but over here it could easily be mp or hp even if it's listed as nm. I've been thinking about buying them for a while but as they're quite pricey I just kept putting it off for other stuff. After watching your videos I'm starting to think that if they are mint condition then they are a must but at those prices and I shouldn't wait any longer. What do you think? Also secondary question, what price would you pay for random alpha commons? I've seen stuff like grizzly bear, iron claw orcs etc for 75-150 but I kept thinking it's a bit too expensive
Far be it for me to tell you what to do with your money- everyone’s portfolio and personal finances are very different! But if you’re asking what I would do, I am actively buying the cards you mentioned in NM at those price points. Some, like Grizzly Bears, will be hard to get under $100. Spell Blast at $75 for a very clean one is on my list for sure. Of course it may be that they are too expensive, as you were worrying, and it’s possible we see prices decline in the coming years. Don’t let anyone tell you they know for sure. But me personally, I am allocating some discretionary spending on the belief/assumption that is not the case. I suspect the price will continue to rise over a 5yr timeline, at least, and these prices will be ancient history by then.
@@AlphaHoarder yeah I also think they will continue to rise although it's becoming increasingly difficult to find people who are able to afford them. I think beta will also become super expensive like 100+ for every card in the future. The main things I have been picking up lately are collectors edition and old frame foils. I really think old frame foils are at the point Abu cards were around 2015. People know they're rare and that they are nice and they've had a bit of a price increase but they haven't properly started buying them en masse yet.
I absolutely love when someone lists a card as mint other than this binder ding, besides this huge scratch the card is NM, aside from the crease it's Pack Fresh 🤣🤣🤣
Isn’t it the best?? 🤦♂️🤦♂️
It’s an interesting question. I guess the only answer is to keep buying them until there aren’t any left and we’ll get together and count them up 😛
This is an absolutely brilliant plan! Count me in 🤜🤛
I think your 50% number could be accurate for some of the rare cards. I can't imagine people cared about Alpha lifelaces quite like Power that were always valuable.
I suspect high-value cards like Black Lotus might be closer to 80%, though, because they were just harder to "throwaway" or "forget about".
I wouldn't mind the 50% number being correct, though. Makes mine that much more scarce :)
The methodology for NM (25%) seems like a practical guess. You gotta think people either "put them in a binder and forgot about them" or played with them. So 1/4 seems logical.
Definitely a lot of guesswork, so tweak my assumptions wherever you feel I’m drifting, but yeah I think the attrition is really high. Power cards very quickly became a thing, and they are over represented in the graded pop reports, so I agree those prob survive in better numbers. It is crazy to image that, quite possibly, only 100 really minty copies of Animate Wall (for example) might still exist 🤯
@@AlphaHoarder Yes, that seems VERY likely on Animate Wall. Even in Alpha 40 league, I've never seen one played. So, I can't imagine back in the day people found much use for it other than having awesome art in your binder or throwing it in a box and forgetting about it haha
Bonne vidéo love Old school
Thanks for watching 👍
Love your videos, glad I found your channel. Would like to hear your opinion on storing these types of cards, what sleeves/maps/storage do you prefer and why. Maybe an idea for a video?
Great idea, thanks for that -- I'll put something together! I have a few systems for different things, could be useful to explore. Appreciate the comment, and thanks for watching.
@@AlphaHoarder Like what about stuff that ought to prevent moisture and stuff..
I have my expensive cards in a waterproof box with silica packets inside for moisture. If my house floods the cards will be fine.
I personally go after played condition cards, but maybe that isn’t out of preference, but out of financial necessity lol. Plus then I don’t feel so bad handling a card that I know was played on a side walk without a sleeve. Especially if value comes in large part from playability. I will say I’m a bit screwed if the reprint duals because I’m not sure how well the beat up revised copies will hold up.
My personal opinion is that revised duals are safest place to play, in this speculative hobby. The liquidity is as good as it gets, so you can probably always move them without too much sacrifice against market value.
I actually have a video coming out maybe next week (I think?) about played condition cards vs nm. There are plenty of good reasons to go that way. NM is definitely not the only game in town. Appreciate you continuing to dig through the channel :-)
Beautiful cards
Something magical about them, I dare say! Thanks for watching.
I've kwnoticed that alot of the corners have a slight bend or a burr from the cutting process. Ide imagine it was some sort of press that cut them out. Does that affect condition?
You’re correct, the cutting die pressed the cards from behind and produced that “corner flip.” That was never considered a condition issue in the past, as it was to factory standard and consistent across the print run, but I’ve heard a lot of grumbling the last 18 months that corners are getting brutal grades from BGS. It is as if some of their graders aren’t aware of the production process 🤔
What is your opinion on Collector's Edition / International Edition cards? Do you think they are underappreciated? There is a big controversy about them, being not tournament legal, having weird card back etc. Condition wise - they are either packfresh mint or played (thanks to pointy corners)
That is a complicated one and I can understand the reason for the controversy. I’ll probably have to collect my thoughts on that before I can give an intelligible opinion… it seems clear to me that both players and collectors are interested in those cards, but your question is the right one: are they *under* appreciated (vs already properly appreciated)? I’ll have to get back to you on that one… let me put it on my list for a future video 👍👍
Have you found certain card types to be more rare to find in NM? For example an enchantment lime bad moon might be more common because once it's played it doesn't require you to do anything else with the card while a creature card like royal assassin would tap a lot to use the ability. I would think enchantment cards would be easier to find NM then most other card types.
Oh, that’s interesting. There is definitely a difference in the availability of near mints that were not very playable compared to the ones that were, but I didn’t considered drilling in further than that as far as what role the cards might’ve played on the battlefield. I’m gonna have to think about that one 🤔
There is a problem in MTG card pricing. Sire the black lotus is a great iconic card but if there are less say allha birds of paradise 9.5 then black lotus then that the Bop should be more valuable. Let's be serious playable for these cards should not be a factor. No one is buying an alpha lotus ( especially NM) to play with. So if playability is removed shouldn't rarity reign supreme in colecting?
I agree with some of that, although I think playability is still a factor because it’s a component of nostalgia, even if the collector isn’t looking to play with the cards now. But yeah, a card like birds… could have a lot of upside.
I actually like signed cards a lot.
You are definitely not the only one! So much of the nostalgia has to do with the artwork, so it makes total sense- but for me, nothing beats a clean card. Not sure why 🤔
great video. does centering play into your idea of nm?
Thanks, and that's a really good point/question. It definitely should be considered, since the market has made it clear that centering moves price a lot. Unfortunately, getting data on that (what % of Mana Vaults were well centered??) is anecdotal or nonexistent. For this reason, I didn't factor it in for the video. Myself when collecting, if I have scans/pics available, I always go for well-centered cards, but on many markets it can be hard to know what you're getting, so I'm often happy with a minty card even when off center.
Which card you have the most of? Jump or flight would be my two top competitors. :D
Jump! Not by design or deliberation, just how it played out.
@@AlphaHoarder Beautiful card. Not to shabby ;)
I think that 90% attrition is way too low for “pack fresh”. You’re telling me 10% of all alpha rares from 30 YEARS ago have never been played with and don’t have a ding, crease, warp, etc AND have been stored perfectly in all that time? I don’t believe it.
I would say 10% is the best possible case 🙂 based on the listings data and pop reports, I don’t think anyone can argue for more than that. However, I definitely think you could argue for less than that.
I've been watching a bunch of your videos. Idk where the mic is but it sounds like your actually talking in my ear trying to seduce us.
You have uncovered my true goal with this channel 😂😂
I think your est is way off. alpha and beta are super rare.
What % of the alpha rare print run do you estimate exists today in NM?
@@AlphaHoarder wizards says that they only produced about a million cards for alpha. Not all sold and I believe alot of kids,parents,and places that the cards were stored destroyed a huge percent of them. Rudy from alpha investments owns a big percent. There are probably only a handful of each card that are in light play or good condition. Beta had a few million print run and there are alittle more good condition cards but its close. I was there when alpha and beta were released and the distributors had a hard time selling.
One thing you’re accounting for is the percent of the cards have vanished into peoples collections… Such as Rudy. I agree with you, and think that is a very relevant piece. I don’t know how to estimate that even in principal, which is why I didn’t talk about it in the video. So if you are saying *available* cards in the world is even worse than my 91%, then I think I would agree with you. Thanks for the perspective, I appreciate it!
@@AlphaHoarder p.s. I'm always looking for old mtg cards if u ever sell or trade let me know.
Not many is right