MARKET COOLING DOWN?! Latest Bay Area Housing Report shows Possible Slowdown....

In this week's Bay Area Housing Market Report, we're diving into a fascinating shift occurring in our market now that the July Data is out - we are starting to see a slight cooling trend in certain pockets.
📊 July Insights from Trend Graphix: Let's start with Santa Clara County. As I predicted earlier, the market in this area is exhibiting behaviors closely aligned with my projections. With 845 homes pending and 802 homes active, demand is consistently outpacing supply. This signifies a competitive seller's market, exactly what we're experiencing in Santa Clara County.
Looking at the trailing three months, the inventory has remained stable, while pending sales have shown slight fluctuations - normal for summer months. Despite the recent news of rate increases, their impact is yet to be seen in the July numbers. We'll monitor how this unfolds in the next 30, 60, and 90 days.
🏡 San Mateo County: The trend in San Mateo County is stability. With 491 homes active and 326 homes pending, the market conditions remain neutral. This is a trend we anticipate to continue into the fall months, so buyers and sellers can expect relatively steady conditions.
🌉 San Francisco County: The story here is interesting. While inventory has remained consistent over the last few months, pending sales experienced a significant dip - a 25% decrease from June to July. This dip is common during summer, when market rhythm changes due to vacations and events.
🌄 East Bay Market Trends: Now, moving to the East Bay, particularly Contra Costa County. With 955 homes active and 738 homes pending, we're witnessing increased supply and decreased demand. This combination typically leads to a softening market. Similar trends are observed in Alameda County, with 819 homes active and 685 homes pending.
💡 Market Insights and Your Next Move: If you're a home seller planning to make a move in 2023, now might be a strategic time to enter the market. The trends we're seeing suggest that either conditions will stabilize over the next few months, or we might witness a more pronounced shift.
For buyers, the current market still offers an advantage. While rates might be higher than recent years, this doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad time to buy. In fact, higher rates can translate into fewer competitors, potentially resulting in better purchase prices. Plus, rates are a dynamic factor - they can fluctuate, and you can always refinance when they come down.
📈 Future Predictions: Looking ahead, next spring is anticipated to be a robust selling season. Pent-up demand, combined with steady price increases, is expected to result in a white-hot market. If you're a seller with time on your side, waiting for spring might yield even better results.
Remember, the real estate market is ever-changing, influenced by various factors. Whether you're a buyer or seller, consult with experts like myself to make informed decisions tailored to your unique situation.
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[@kristina-oy3zs]

Prices coming down is why buyers are waiting not rates coming down. Further, if rates go up, there will be even fewer buyers and sellers….. so no, prices will not go up, just mortgage rates.
And no, you will not be able to re finance to a lower number if you lose equity on your house which is likely to happen in the future. If the fed pivots then it’s likely due to unemployment numbers rising and some people will be forced to sell causing more inventory and thus declining prices.
Stop dude.

[@SellingSiliconValleyTV]

So if rates go up, what happens to your monthly payments? Prices come down, but is it enough to offset the increase to your monthlies?
If you assess the Monthly payments of Buyers who bought in March of 2022 vs October of 2022 - it looks like the Buyers in October came out on top. But so far their monthly payments are still higher than the Buyers who bought in March of 2022.