@@NERD-FROM-THE-SOUTH it's a double edged sword. People like Rudy keep a game I love around but they have also made staple cards go from 15 dollars to 40 to xxx. It only really makes me sad cuz the collectors market goes into the cost of playing the game. Most people don't think for themselves I thought you was just trying to praise the dude.
@@NERD-FROM-THE-SOUTHyou contradict yourself. If he comes from money and is such a successful landlord, then why would he need to "scam" people in the cardboard world? A $300 box is pennies compared to multiple properties and lucrative businesses. I think you might be stuck in your own perspective and unwilling to see someone like Rudy's. If you've watched for long enough, "scammer" or not, this man is passionate about cardboard. This is a hobby for him and he is clearly a workaholic that finds satisfaction in providing for his family. It's pretty twisted to think he needs to scam Timmys who can't afford a $300 box to begin with. Yikes.
I don't even collect cards but you are an absolute stud, Rudy. Love checking in every once in a while & seeing how things are going. Wishing you nothing but the best!
Until no one wants the set and the amazon algo decides the box is not selling and gets firesold Wtf will Hasbro and WotC do when even Amazon gets burned? If LGS get burned and doesnt want product AND Amazon gets burned and doesn't want product, wtf does Hasbro do then? Making Amazon hold the bags isn't a good or viable strategy, especially when Hasbro depends on them to move volume outside of LGS. If secret dinosaur is right, this is going to be an absolute dumpster fire in a year or two when Amazon and LGS are tired of getting jurassic poo'ed on.
@@EdwinRosario432 Amazon will never get burned they have a commission and they make most of their massive profits on amazon web services, the store dont make much money at all.
I’m going to have a hobby shop (tabletop wargaming, RPGs, etc) one day but I’m going to do something crazy… and minimize the Hasbro products I will carry. But I have an idea on how to get around that disadvantage.
Been holding off watching this but its always a treat when you've got a whiteboard video...I spent a day few years back watching everyone you had uploaded at the time back to back. Always appreciate the lessons and your optimistic attitude, have for sure made me a more hopeful person. Cheers Rudy and looking forward to the next one!
You had me at "dinosaur Amazon anus thing". The way you teach is bizzare, loveable, and informative. Thanks for the lesson in false scarcity and baseline value manipulation.
A vid representative of Rudys tool set that does not go much beyond technicalities. He reminds me of a stock market analyst not knowing fundamentals, just looking at chart movements, thus seeing Hasbros hope in manipulating sales channels or new card variants.. More interesting discussions are around if WOTC should go back to blocks, thus able to pool creative resources for three sets, instead of frittering them away in single set products like Karlov Manor or Thunder junction with no appeal to get bought, or serialized cards or which other IP to be integrated in a Secret Lair.
It Saddens me as a 47yr old Man who began playing MTG since it first came out i collected since the beginning .... back b4 my dad passed away in 2016 my entire collection got stolen people broke into our home and stole not only my entire MTG Collection worth a lot of money but my G1 Transformers and G1 Gi-Joe Collection among other things. we had everything insured EXCEPT my MTG collection :( till that day i never bought 1 single or pack of MTG since. i just can't afford it.
First of all my dad is no longer living 2nd my dad would never do that didn't you know assumption is the mother of all fuck ups? check yo self next time b4 u spew bs@@sim_o
Thanks for another solid vid, Rudy. In my mind, the next most prudent bottom-line moves for Hasbro would be two-pronged: First, begin printing 9/10 basic lands, 4/5 commons , 2/3 uncommons, and all tokens on the cheapest card stock possible - black ink lines on white backgrounds - don't even bother printing on the back (assuming sleeved play), rather creating something recyclable or even compostable. This would draw down the cost of resources going into cards (of which the majority are ultimately destined for dumpsters) while simultaneously increasing the scarcity & value of the 'rarer' commons/uncommons printed on regular stock. It'd also increase common/uncommon trading, particularly at the LGS level. And it'd 'coincidentally' have some real solid environmental benefits! Second ( and this would support the first move in a two-pronged attack), it'd make sense for Hasbro to move into the sleeve market and begin packaging prerelease sets with them, increasing the prelease set prices to compensate, while also selling these sleeves as a direct competitor to the other manufacturers. This would allow them to produce a tailored sleeve that would better mask any difference between the new B&W lands/commons/uncommons, and the regular prints. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Hasbro owns any of the sleeve companies in play. Just my thoughts - I'd love to hear you weigh in on this.
Seriously? Not joking? Lmao your first point sounds utterly ridiculous and would have a massive backlash from players. Reduce card quality further than it already has? Nah. Second point, more feasible and something they could probably do. But rather than getting into the sleeves game though they could just contract with an existing company for fractions of a penny per sleeve and yet charge dollars more per kit.
Rudy mentioned that our society doesn't accept failure. Not sure if this is reinforced in our education system where I don't remember anyone going over with me why I would fail, just that I did. While the lessons were retaught what wasn't gone over was whatever method I was using to implement what was taught (not sure I'm being clear). Was listening to a Chael Sonnen video and something he said really struck me. I'm paraphrasing, but he said that "we are taught that failure isn't an option. Of course it's an option". I don't think we are taught how to come back from failure. Just found it interesting.
lately i've been running into something ive never seen before (30 years playing in game stores) . new game stores opening up and not selling wizards of the coast products.also existing stores no longer selling magic cards or running events. i think this is becoming a new trend which i find very interesting .
love it. I also want to add an idea into this. I think one thing we forget is that people want to open packs, and play these cards. I think part of this is tied into to this, and products that have terrible play-ability, will show up in market flux. I rarely buy sealed product outside of 1 pack here and there from store credit for event placement. i find it so hard to justify as a player buying into sealed product especially when you get mucked, double master at 20-30 a pack with a total of 4 bucks in rares....hurts the soul
To get to the core of it: That model is entirely based on the psychological reception of boxes being scarcer than they are, based on LGS not receiving as usual. It also worked without amazon before, remember Time Spiral remastered? At the beginning it was severely bottle-necked too. But with amazon they can surely manage it better, adding only small restocks to keep the prices higher than they would be if LGS got these boxes for the ~$190 to sell at around $220 or so. I don't know, are we as customers too dumb to see through this after the first time? For Fallout it surely worked out excellent for them as we didn't expect it. But now as (some of us at least) got that glimpse behind the dinosaur, will it work again and again? My lazy prediction: Smart people can do pre-orders again at their LGS and lock in those prices, e.g. $220. If the vast majority of boxes then moves to amazon to be sold at $300 they can be happy to have paid less. Does that make sense?
👏 💯 yes general customers are too dumb to see through it. Even when you could estimate print numbers with serialized info and the fact if they’re paying for an IP license so they’re gonna use it fully, we’re still where we are now
Having never played MTG I bought a FO CB blindly when Rudy first mentioned anything under $300 was a good price at $260 and it has been the second most exciting thing to track other than Evolving Skies. Thank you Rudy. I’m convinced you’re a real one.
Maybe I missed something, but it seems that the reference between print run numbers for packs vs. boxes are mixed up in this equation? Reference: "Sup products - individual, one little collector pack hanging on the shelf in your local bog box store" ~3:00. If referencing packs, wouldn't that mean that the 240,000 would be divided by the number of packs in a collector box to get the total number of collector boxes? These would be much lower numbers, right?
I’m guessing no cut. Very large volumes, they’re probably getting paid for storage and a per box fee. Maybe additional fees for being more careful with higher end boxes but the ways I’ve seen them shipped I doubt it. Cynthia connections at Amazon probably got them a sweet deal. 10-15% doesn’t sounds like corporate bargaining numbers
The problem with constantly raising the P. and reprints becomes "spending today is less valuable than spending tomorrow". Without FOMO the consumer can step back, relaxe and have a nice conversation where their money goes. Less impulse buys means less money for hash-sis.
This was pretty valuable insight because Hasbro's solution despite everything was actually ingenious. Using product scarcity amongst LGS and price setting the market using Amazon as a way of creating artificial confidence and in turn, making more by selling less is really clever. However if Amazon ever wanted to press their advantage if they thought they could make more (or if they got themselves into some trouble), it would probably end up being a disaster. Although I suppose you could run the same scheme through Ebay by way of TCG.
Love this. All the other booger eaters are just commenting on the white board. The point we should be discussing is what, if anything, we can do about this. Especially because the new model is based on a false sense of scarcity that inflates consumer confidence. Rudy is right in that LGSs are going to get screwed. If I owned one I would limit my exposure to Magic as much as I could. This could go horribly wrong. I feel like the answer has to be in the singles market. If print runs are still that high, they are just hiding it through Amazon, then singles prices should crash - if everyone understood this. That would create downward pressure on the price of boxes that would crush their bottom line.
@@judsonbates1359 What I find interesting (about the model Rudy demonstrated) is, yes, the LGS's money-making ability is in fact greatly restricted but at the same time their risk exposure would technically decrease by a buoying of market value by Amazon setting the height of the tide. The risk as I allude to and you expounded upon must always be considered as it isn't insignificant. However, despite the risk and my own natural pessimism, I must say it is minimized by the fact I do not think (at this time) Amazon as a distributor would want to lose Hasbro's business (which includes Toys, Lego, etc.). I'm sure they are probably making a fairly good percentage on this, but in a hypothetical sense what would happen to the model if Amazon were to push for an extra % or two? Would it still work and how would they adjust it? The natural fear is they would increase the print causing the systemic failure you describe and we have seen slowly get corrected in the last 18 months to make up that revenue. Managing those numbers will be incredibly vital to the entire company. The image that comes to mind is Philippe Petit walking the tightrope between the Trade Towers in 1974, if successful it will great accomplishment if not tragedy.
@@judsonbates1359my lgs is already backing off. MTG cases are losing real estate to other games, sealed inventory continues to shrink.. Luckily enough I have enough closet flippers in my play group to keep me buying singles and cracking packs long after they quit printing MTG 🤷
Rudy thank you you are a genious of entertainment. I loved it when the product started coming out of the dino's ass. You're funny but also you are so right! We need to have a laugh even our assets are on the line! Thanks and all the best!
So if WotC printed 270k collector cases, and each case translates into 12x14 cards (15 - 1 token) that means each case has 168 cards. This means the card print run for FOc is ~45.4M. Comparing this against old sets like Revised which had, according to some sources, ~300M cards printed, or Fourth Ed at ~500M cards, or Battle for Zendikar at ~2.5B cards... Is it fair to conclude that collector Ed. boxes are only targeting 2% of the player base given the availability ratios? Should CE cards be 50x more expensive because of the rarity? Is MTG so much less popular than it was 25 years ago that a such a smaller supply is needed? (I don't think this is true) If future print runs will be even smaller, is MTG CE going to become the 1% or 0.1% targeted products? Are there any other conclusions you can make here?
You omit that if card prices fall, and you buy them at that low price, you don't care if they hold value given they cost 50 cents to a few dollars. The game piece army may just want to play and can't afford higher priced cards thus, falling card prices allow them to buy the cards in the first place. If you buy a commander deck for $500, you care if it gets reprinted into the ground because you lose hundreds. If the entry price for that deck is $50, tanking card prices are not a problem since you lose $25 dollars and you can afford to buy the deck in the first place.
Wizards should go back to 1 booster pack type and put all the variations in as special cards like it used to be. They could take a page from FaB putting serialized in the first run and just special variations in an unlimited run that is PtD.
nice video Rudy, the analytical breakdown was concise and logical. Makes sense to see the variables and yea it is prob what is happening exactly. we won't be surprised to see AMZN poop out more fallout boxes in drips for sure in small poop waves!
16:29 It works because LGSs have weak hands and need cash flow. This causes a downward spiral in pricing as they fire sale boxes. Of course, they need to fire sale boxes because WOTC is pushing out too many products too soon. Producers have always targeted distributors. Unfortunately, LGSs will have to figure out a new business model.
In the End it comes down to one question: "Is this sustainable?" And I have my doubts about that. If you run an LGS you will try to look for alternatives as well. You will hold on to MtG and endure it for as long as you have to but you will not offer them special positions if you can diversify to minimize your risk. In the end LGS have good reasons to promote the alternatives because they can not rely on wizards at least that's what I am seeing at the shops that I visit big and small. Actually a bunch of players are looking for an out that's why lorcana, sorcery, FaB and star wars are there... Have a great day everyone!
Use the LGS to display product scarcity and use Amazon to benefit from the perception. Which means we never know until later on what's ACTUALLY scarce. Unless Rudy emails himself, of course.
Except maths tell you about how many boxes when there’s serialized cards. No one should have fell for Fallout scarcity. (Or Ravnica scarcity/being good). Did anyone really think they were going to pay for an IP license and not use it? Demand is another story, LotR was underestimated, Dr. Who was underestimated by the loudmouths but WotC/stores look like they got it right. Judging by how many Fallout CB appeared on release day, Fallout was scalped to hell and this isn’t demand. I didn’t think there’d be much demand for Fallout and cut down me order a lot or this set. What the real demand is won’t be known for like 6 months because the FOMO level is crazy. But watch the singles sales/prices. If people don’t want the cards, the boxes are going to drop. To me Surge foil commanders going for under $15 means the demand just isn’t there, because there’s not a lot out there. If the demand was real the few boxes being opened couldn’t keep up with the market and prices should be way higher.
Rudy gave an Economics lesson for free, pretty good explanation that can be fitted in many situations. I wouldn't blame Hasbro for doing that, they are a business company after all. As always who pays the price is the final consumer.
Pluto is not a planet. If we say Pluto is a planet, then suddenly there are thousands of other objects that also become planets, and now we're overprinting planets, they become common, and life become too short to look at them.
Halfway in. Here is the tl;dr…Hasbro leverages AMZN channel to hold retail prices, pushes most stock that direction. Scarcity holds if they don’t dump trickle level sales. Rudy forgets to talk about AMZN channel margin against the $325/box.
Except there is no Amazon margin. They are getting paid to sort and sell a box for you, same cost whether it’s a $90 box or $400 box. Why do you think the Cynthia connection was so important in getting it set up?
Account fees are fixed and modest but by industry referral fees aren’t and they range quite widely. There is also Amazon fulfillment - a third bite of the apple? Guaranteed Amazon makes “good money” for this - it’s how Bezos flies fallic ships into the sky.
Contract with Amazon to sell for you. They get paid for selling, you get paid on margin. Hence why Cynthia was important in setting it up and we’ve seen way more product moved through Amazon
13:30 Hasbro wouldn't sell for that price to distributors though, right? At some point, the LGS sells them for $325 instead of $190. Is Hasbro charging the distributors? Are the distributors making $100 selling boxes to the LGS at $260?
Amazon still acts as a distributor and takes some of the cut (obviously less than a typical distributor). But you also have 100,000 units of product unaccounted for so it counters it out. My question is how does hasbro have the influence to set amazon prices? Is one owned by the other or something? It seems like if the LGS was looking at still getting boxes for $170 they could easily undercut amazon. But that is not what we are seeing. LGS boxes are always more than amazon.
15% Supps, which are single packs. 270000 boxes = 3240000 packs, minus 40000 Supp packs = 3200000 packs (266666.6666667 boxes). Difference between 270K and 266.6K isn’t large enough to derail his argument. Point, Rudy. Proceed
Rudy i think it sounds good as game pieces stay cheap if you dont go for collectors boosters and the collectors have their value in collector boxes. Id call that a win win
No one understood a word until that visor came out. Now it's all so clear!
Engineer Geordi approves
Super-visor!
When the visor comes on you know its serious
37:25 "You don't learn until it blows up in your face"
very true rudy and not just about cardboard.
When Rudy puts on the visor,
you're about to get wiser
I was today’s years old (after 6 years of watching) when I realized Rudy is left handed… that explains it all!
This is the most important video because Rudy’s Mom finally let him put up a whiteboard in her basement.
Everybody who watches this channel lives in a fantasy world ;)
@@NERD-FROM-THE-SOUTHyou put on your knee pads for this comment
@@NERD-FROM-THE-SOUTH you are embarrassing yourself
@@NERD-FROM-THE-SOUTH it's a double edged sword. People like Rudy keep a game I love around but they have also made staple cards go from 15 dollars to 40 to xxx. It only really makes me sad cuz the collectors market goes into the cost of playing the game. Most people don't think for themselves I thought you was just trying to praise the dude.
@@NERD-FROM-THE-SOUTHyou contradict yourself. If he comes from money and is such a successful landlord, then why would he need to "scam" people in the cardboard world? A $300 box is pennies compared to multiple properties and lucrative businesses. I think you might be stuck in your own perspective and unwilling to see someone like Rudy's. If you've watched for long enough, "scammer" or not, this man is passionate about cardboard. This is a hobby for him and he is clearly a workaholic that finds satisfaction in providing for his family. It's pretty twisted to think he needs to scam Timmys who can't afford a $300 box to begin with. Yikes.
I see the visor and the whiteboard, then I click. That simple.
I don't even collect cards but you are an absolute stud, Rudy. Love checking in every once in a while & seeing how things are going. Wishing you nothing but the best!
FINALLY THE WHITEBOARD IS BACK WOOHOO
Never seen it before but I do enjoy it. Quite good for explaining all this.
@@VideoGameWarlord it’s worth going back and checking out, his older whiteboard videos as well for knowledge
I love how the visor retains all market signals being absorbed and conveyed by Rudy's Hair.
Until no one wants the set and the amazon algo decides the box is not selling and gets firesold for $200. Then hasbro profits drop 50%
Let them eat cardboard.
_F-k it! We'll print it live!!_
Cynthia already knows how to make spineless gambling goldfishes spend all their money
Until no one wants the set and the amazon algo decides the box is not selling and gets firesold
Wtf will Hasbro and WotC do when even Amazon gets burned?
If LGS get burned and doesnt want product AND Amazon gets burned and doesn't want product, wtf does Hasbro do then?
Making Amazon hold the bags isn't a good or viable strategy, especially when Hasbro depends on them to move volume outside of LGS.
If secret dinosaur is right, this is going to be an absolute dumpster fire in a year or two when Amazon and LGS are tired of getting jurassic poo'ed on.
@@EdwinRosario432 Amazon will never get burned they have a commission and they make most of their massive profits on amazon web services, the store dont make much money at all.
Holy shit secret dinosaur
Jurassismine Park
I’m going to have a hobby shop (tabletop wargaming, RPGs, etc) one day but I’m going to do something crazy… and minimize the Hasbro products I will carry. But I have an idea on how to get around that disadvantage.
Waiting for a follow up video for "Royal Caribbean Cruise" video from 4years ago.
Thank you for the pink visor videos, these really are The best 🎉😂
Been holding off watching this but its always a treat when you've got a whiteboard video...I spent a day few years back watching everyone you had uploaded at the time back to back. Always appreciate the lessons and your optimistic attitude, have for sure made me a more hopeful person. Cheers Rudy and looking forward to the next one!
I clicked on the like button for the visor, and i must admit, the secret passage dinosaur. Thanks Roody
I had the video playing in another time but I knew the "Awhhh that felt so good" was him putting on *the hat*
You had me at "dinosaur Amazon anus thing". The way you teach is bizzare, loveable, and informative. Thanks for the lesson in false scarcity and baseline value manipulation.
I really appreciate the Fallen Empires boxes up the side of the whiteboard… the real over printed set of all time 😅❤
He’s got so many he’s just slamming them into random places
😭
By the waters of Babylon, we lay down and wept, for thee Fallen Empires.
A vid representative of Rudys tool set that does not go much beyond technicalities.
He reminds me of a stock market analyst not knowing fundamentals, just looking at chart movements, thus seeing Hasbros hope in manipulating sales channels or new card variants..
More interesting discussions are around if WOTC should go back to blocks, thus able to pool creative resources for three sets, instead of frittering them away in single set products like Karlov Manor or Thunder junction with no appeal to get bought, or serialized cards or which other IP to be integrated in a Secret Lair.
Need to buy one of those visors to wear when I pay my bills
Make sure to get a pair of glasses as well
I thought those visors were green? For money shinyness idk wtf is happening
It Saddens me as a 47yr old Man who began playing MTG since it first came out i collected since the beginning .... back b4 my dad passed away in 2016 my entire collection got stolen people broke into our home and stole not only my entire MTG Collection worth a lot of money but my G1 Transformers and G1 Gi-Joe Collection among other things. we had everything insured EXCEPT my MTG collection :( till that day i never bought 1 single or pack of MTG since. i just can't afford it.
smells like an inside job
Sounds like your dad sold your magic cards for magic powder
First of all my dad is no longer living 2nd my dad would never do that didn't you know assumption is the mother of all fuck ups? check yo self next time b4 u spew bs@@sim_o
Finally! A long learning lesson video! Thank you Rudy!!!!!! This is so awesome!
Please do more of these videos as you can. They are very much appreciated.
RUDY HOSTILE TAKEOVER OF HASBRO LETS GOOOO
Rudy Takeover Hostile! (I don't think Timmy's know what that actually means)
Oooh these kinds of videos are the best from Rudy
Thanks for another solid vid, Rudy. In my mind, the next most prudent bottom-line moves for Hasbro would be two-pronged: First, begin printing 9/10 basic lands, 4/5 commons , 2/3 uncommons, and all tokens on the cheapest card stock possible - black ink lines on white backgrounds - don't even bother printing on the back (assuming sleeved play), rather creating something recyclable or even compostable. This would draw down the cost of resources going into cards (of which the majority are ultimately destined for dumpsters) while simultaneously increasing the scarcity & value of the 'rarer' commons/uncommons printed on regular stock. It'd also increase common/uncommon trading, particularly at the LGS level. And it'd 'coincidentally' have some real solid environmental benefits! Second ( and this would support the first move in a two-pronged attack), it'd make sense for Hasbro to move into the sleeve market and begin packaging prerelease sets with them, increasing the prelease set prices to compensate, while also selling these sleeves as a direct competitor to the other manufacturers. This would allow them to produce a tailored sleeve that would better mask any difference between the new B&W lands/commons/uncommons, and the regular prints. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Hasbro owns any of the sleeve companies in play.
Just my thoughts - I'd love to hear you weigh in on this.
Seriously? Not joking? Lmao your first point sounds utterly ridiculous and would have a massive backlash from players. Reduce card quality further than it already has? Nah.
Second point, more feasible and something they could probably do. But rather than getting into the sleeves game though they could just contract with an existing company for fractions of a penny per sleeve and yet charge dollars more per kit.
@@JCLA5The playerbase will accept whatever WOTC doles out... And they will LIKE IT
@@johncameron5884 magic 30th anyone? While players need to speak with their wallets more than they do, there ARE lines that many players won't cross.
"I'm a mitochondria with little fuzzy legs" was the best line in this entire lecture. 😆🤣🤣
26:26 10/10
Whiteboard, visor AND a TI-83!!
The title wasn’t lying!
I love that hes using aa ti-83plus
...to multiply numbers by 10
@@fsmoura Can you share the Google doc link for your spreadsheet of all of Rudy's silly mistakes?
@@hahahafunniness I'll do it right away, as soon as I finish watching this new batch of Umu videos... only 17 to go ( o.o)
This is the kind of content I come to this channel for
My kid says Folks in unison with me. You can teach your kids Magic. I’m teaching my kid Rudy.
gz a family of loser
Lmao
Lol that's awesome
Just realized Rudy is left handed. Good for you Rudy
You can know the print run when jou know the average pullrate of 1 serialcard x the total amount of availble serial cards.
Love you Rudy! ❤
Rudy mentioned that our society doesn't accept failure. Not sure if this is reinforced in our education system where I don't remember anyone going over with me why I would fail, just that I did. While the lessons were retaught what wasn't gone over was whatever method I was using to implement what was taught (not sure I'm being clear). Was listening to a Chael Sonnen video and something he said really struck me. I'm paraphrasing, but he said that "we are taught that failure isn't an option. Of course it's an option". I don't think we are taught how to come back from failure. Just found it interesting.
Metazoo's art looked like it was made by a 5 year old. Their demise was inevitable.
Everything about Metazoo looked cheap. It gave me flashbacks to the bootleg pokemon cards I saw at a flea market, when I was a kid.
"looked"?!?
A finance video that mentions learning from mistakes... Framed by Fallen Empires boxes. The irony is appreciated Rudy.
The one rudy to rule them all, one Rudy to find them, one Rudy to rob us all, and in the visor bind us
Cynthia won! Now a box has 12 packs and sell for $325 that was $80 with 36 packs
Isn’t this just what we’ve been trying to tell Rudy?
It's midnight on a Saturday, I can't get jiggy wit this.
lately i've been running into something ive never seen before (30 years playing in game stores) . new game stores opening up and not selling wizards of the coast products.also existing stores no longer selling magic cards or running events. i think this is becoming a new trend which i find very interesting .
Finally, another whiteboard and banker visor and/or frolf hat. Guide me, sensai.
love it. I also want to add an idea into this. I think one thing we forget is that people want to open packs, and play these cards. I think part of this is tied into to this, and products that have terrible play-ability, will show up in market flux. I rarely buy sealed product outside of 1 pack here and there from store credit for event placement. i find it so hard to justify as a player buying into sealed product especially when you get mucked, double master at 20-30 a pack with a total of 4 bucks in rares....hurts the soul
To get to the core of it: That model is entirely based on the psychological reception of boxes being scarcer than they are, based on LGS not receiving as usual. It also worked without amazon before, remember Time Spiral remastered? At the beginning it was severely bottle-necked too. But with amazon they can surely manage it better, adding only small restocks to keep the prices higher than they would be if LGS got these boxes for the ~$190 to sell at around $220 or so.
I don't know, are we as customers too dumb to see through this after the first time? For Fallout it surely worked out excellent for them as we didn't expect it. But now as (some of us at least) got that glimpse behind the dinosaur, will it work again and again?
My lazy prediction: Smart people can do pre-orders again at their LGS and lock in those prices, e.g. $220. If the vast majority of boxes then moves to amazon to be sold at $300 they can be happy to have paid less. Does that make sense?
👏 💯 yes general customers are too dumb to see through it. Even when you could estimate print numbers with serialized info and the fact if they’re paying for an IP license so they’re gonna use it fully, we’re still where we are now
Uhh, TSR was absolutely pumped thru Amazon for close to 300 a box like a month after release
@@epochsgamingthat's the point, people are buying at high prices on Amazon because it looks scarce but isn't, just like TSR.
@@chim007azo was responding to the first post where he said it worked without Amazon
ABOUT DAMN TIME, I haven’t understood word on this channel in so long!
Can I have hours of the magic that happened at 26:26? That was simply a gift to humanity.
Well the secret dinosaur explains the smell of my cards lately. Seriously though, good break down Rudy. Cheers
Homer: Number go up?
Marge; Print run's too tight for number to go up.
Homer: Number go up??
Marge: Ehh sure... Number go up.
If one party controls all the supply consumers get wrekt? Shocking.
RUDY DROPPING THAT FREE EDUCATION
I’m so stoked to see another white board video! These are my favorite content you make man, keep up the amazing work!
Man had the visor out, I'm going to preheat the oven for my lesson on Tendies!
Having never played MTG I bought a FO CB blindly when Rudy first mentioned anything under $300 was a good price at $260 and it has been the second most exciting thing to track other than Evolving Skies. Thank you Rudy. I’m convinced you’re a real one.
but will amazon necessarily play the long game so to speak? is it generally accepted that amazon buy prices will stay stable?
Thanks Rudy for this information continue the good work
Rudy still fighting the good fight for Pluto! The hero we need.
Unsinkable Titanic huh, sounds like a Commander idea for Universes Beyond feat. Jack and Rose.
Rudy does not fuck around when he put these titles ❤❤❤
put on the visor, put on the visor, put on the vis.. YES!!!!!!!!
Maybe I missed something, but it seems that the reference between print run numbers for packs vs. boxes are mixed up in this equation? Reference: "Sup products - individual, one little collector pack hanging on the shelf in your local bog box store" ~3:00. If referencing packs, wouldn't that mean that the 240,000 would be divided by the number of packs in a collector box to get the total number of collector boxes? These would be much lower numbers, right?
the visor is back!!!! let's goooooo!
I have often wondered what the cut is that Amazon take though off the top? So distributor takes $30. What does Amazon take? Surely it has to be more
I’d guess 10-15% so if they sell for 325 then between 30 and 45 bucks
I’m guessing no cut. Very large volumes, they’re probably getting paid for storage and a per box fee. Maybe additional fees for being more careful with higher end boxes but the ways I’ve seen them shipped I doubt it. Cynthia connections at Amazon probably got them a sweet deal. 10-15% doesn’t sounds like corporate bargaining numbers
The problem with constantly raising the P. and reprints becomes "spending today is less valuable than spending tomorrow". Without FOMO the consumer can step back, relaxe and have a nice conversation where their money goes. Less impulse buys means less money for hash-sis.
This was pretty valuable insight because Hasbro's solution despite everything was actually ingenious. Using product scarcity amongst LGS and price setting the market using Amazon as a way of creating artificial confidence and in turn, making more by selling less is really clever. However if Amazon ever wanted to press their advantage if they thought they could make more (or if they got themselves into some trouble), it would probably end up being a disaster. Although I suppose you could run the same scheme through Ebay by way of TCG.
Love this. All the other booger eaters are just commenting on the white board. The point we should be discussing is what, if anything, we can do about this. Especially because the new model is based on a false sense of scarcity that inflates consumer confidence. Rudy is right in that LGSs are going to get screwed. If I owned one I would limit my exposure to Magic as much as I could. This could go horribly wrong. I feel like the answer has to be in the singles market. If print runs are still that high, they are just hiding it through Amazon, then singles prices should crash - if everyone understood this. That would create downward pressure on the price of boxes that would crush their bottom line.
@@judsonbates1359 What I find interesting (about the model Rudy demonstrated) is, yes, the LGS's money-making ability is in fact greatly restricted but at the same time their risk exposure would technically decrease by a buoying of market value by Amazon setting the height of the tide. The risk as I allude to and you expounded upon must always be considered as it isn't insignificant. However, despite the risk and my own natural pessimism, I must say it is minimized by the fact I do not think (at this time) Amazon as a distributor would want to lose Hasbro's business (which includes Toys, Lego, etc.). I'm sure they are probably making a fairly good percentage on this, but in a hypothetical sense what would happen to the model if Amazon were to push for an extra % or two? Would it still work and how would they adjust it?
The natural fear is they would increase the print causing the systemic failure you describe and we have seen slowly get corrected in the last 18 months to make up that revenue. Managing those numbers will be incredibly vital to the entire company. The image that comes to mind is Philippe Petit walking the tightrope between the Trade Towers in 1974, if successful it will great accomplishment if not tragedy.
@@judsonbates1359my lgs is already backing off.
MTG cases are losing real estate to other games, sealed inventory continues to shrink..
Luckily enough I have enough closet flippers in my play group to keep me buying singles and cracking packs long after they quit printing MTG 🤷
Rudy thank you you are a genious of entertainment. I loved it when the product started coming out of the dino's ass. You're funny but also you are so right! We need to have a laugh even our assets are on the line! Thanks and all the best!
2 seconds early on the visor rudy thats how i know u a real one
You sir, should be teaching economics and finance at Tolarian Community College…This was brilliant!
So if WotC printed 270k collector cases, and each case translates into 12x14 cards (15 - 1 token) that means each case has 168 cards. This means the card print run for FOc is ~45.4M. Comparing this against old sets like Revised which had, according to some sources, ~300M cards printed, or Fourth Ed at ~500M cards, or Battle for Zendikar at ~2.5B cards... Is it fair to conclude that collector Ed. boxes are only targeting 2% of the player base given the availability ratios? Should CE cards be 50x more expensive because of the rarity? Is MTG so much less popular than it was 25 years ago that a such a smaller supply is needed? (I don't think this is true) If future print runs will be even smaller, is MTG CE going to become the 1% or 0.1% targeted products? Are there any other conclusions you can make here?
You omit that if card prices fall, and you buy them at that low price, you don't care if they hold value given they cost 50 cents to a few dollars. The game piece army may just want to play and can't afford higher priced cards thus, falling card prices allow them to buy the cards in the first place. If you buy a commander deck for $500, you care if it gets reprinted into the ground because you lose hundreds. If the entry price for that deck is $50, tanking card prices are not a problem since you lose $25 dollars and you can afford to buy the deck in the first place.
Wizards should go back to 1 booster pack type and put all the variations in as special cards like it used to be. They could take a page from FaB putting serialized in the first run and just special variations in an unlimited run that is PtD.
Or get rid of serialized garbage altogether, because it makes zero sense to re-use the same art in a serialized variant.
An excellent, insightful and entertaining white board video Rudy. Well done sir
you have explain it very good to me. thank you for you effort.
I feel like I learned something after watching this....what I learned I'm not entirely sure quite yet but I know I learned something
Thank you for another pink visor video!!!!! ❤
nice video Rudy, the analytical breakdown was concise and logical. Makes sense to see the variables and yea it is prob what is happening exactly. we won't be surprised to see AMZN poop out more fallout boxes in drips for sure in small poop waves!
16:29 It works because LGSs have weak hands and need cash flow. This causes a downward spiral in pricing as they fire sale boxes. Of course, they need to fire sale boxes because WOTC is pushing out too many products too soon. Producers have always targeted distributors. Unfortunately, LGSs will have to figure out a new business model.
In the End it comes down to one question: "Is this sustainable?"
And I have my doubts about that. If you run an LGS you will try to look for alternatives as well. You will hold on to MtG and endure it for as long as you have to but you will not offer them special positions if you can diversify to minimize your risk. In the end LGS have good reasons to promote the alternatives because they can not rely on wizards at least that's what I am seeing at the shops that I visit big and small.
Actually a bunch of players are looking for an out that's why lorcana, sorcery, FaB and star wars are there...
Have a great day everyone!
Use the LGS to display product scarcity and use Amazon to benefit from the perception. Which means we never know until later on what's ACTUALLY scarce. Unless Rudy emails himself, of course.
Except maths tell you about how many boxes when there’s serialized cards. No one should have fell for Fallout scarcity. (Or Ravnica scarcity/being good). Did anyone really think they were going to pay for an IP license and not use it?
Demand is another story, LotR was underestimated, Dr. Who was underestimated by the loudmouths but WotC/stores look like they got it right. Judging by how many Fallout CB appeared on release day, Fallout was scalped to hell and this isn’t demand. I didn’t think there’d be much demand for Fallout and cut down me order a lot or this set. What the real demand is won’t be known for like 6 months because the FOMO level is crazy. But watch the singles sales/prices. If people don’t want the cards, the boxes are going to drop. To me Surge foil commanders going for under $15 means the demand just isn’t there, because there’s not a lot out there. If the demand was real the few boxes being opened couldn’t keep up with the market and prices should be way higher.
Also not sure if people know this, but how stores got their allocations for those FB CBs depends on how much they spent on MKM.
Rudy gave an Economics lesson for free, pretty good explanation that can be fitted in many situations. I wouldn't blame Hasbro for doing that, they are a business company after all. As always who pays the price is the final consumer.
Pluto is not a planet. If we say Pluto is a planet, then suddenly there are thousands of other objects that also become planets, and now we're overprinting planets, they become common, and life become too short to look at them.
Halfway in. Here is the tl;dr…Hasbro leverages AMZN channel to hold retail prices, pushes most stock that direction. Scarcity holds if they don’t dump trickle level sales. Rudy forgets to talk about AMZN channel margin against the $325/box.
Except there is no Amazon margin. They are getting paid to sort and sell a box for you, same cost whether it’s a $90 box or $400 box. Why do you think the Cynthia connection was so important in getting it set up?
Account fees are fixed and modest but by industry referral fees aren’t and they range quite widely. There is also Amazon fulfillment - a third bite of the apple? Guaranteed Amazon makes “good money” for this - it’s how Bezos flies fallic ships into the sky.
pink visor video has made my day already and im only 2 minutes 15 seconds in.
it’s called the secret amazon dinosaur oquation! brilliant! 😜😁👊🏻
Watching this makes me glad I got out of collecting sealed boxes. I now hold to the Professor's adage of BUY SINGLES.
I don't see how this is any more important than the Bazaar of Baghdad video
thanks. sounds like things are work out
Why would Amazon want to pay twice of the price that the regular distributors pay Hasbro for the same product? Doesn’t make sense to me.
Contract with Amazon to sell for you. They get paid for selling, you get paid on margin. Hence why Cynthia was important in setting it up and we’ve seen way more product moved through Amazon
I really enjoyed this video. Thanks for sharing.
13:30 Hasbro wouldn't sell for that price to distributors though, right? At some point, the LGS sells them for $325 instead of $190. Is Hasbro charging the distributors? Are the distributors making $100 selling boxes to the LGS at $260?
Amazon still acts as a distributor and takes some of the cut (obviously less than a typical distributor). But you also have 100,000 units of product unaccounted for so it counters it out. My question is how does hasbro have the influence to set amazon prices? Is one owned by the other or something? It seems like if the LGS was looking at still getting boxes for $170 they could easily undercut amazon. But that is not what we are seeing. LGS boxes are always more than amazon.
15% Supps, which are single packs. 270000 boxes = 3240000 packs, minus 40000 Supp packs = 3200000 packs (266666.6666667 boxes). Difference between 270K and 266.6K isn’t large enough to derail his argument. Point, Rudy. Proceed
Rudy, Enjoy the content. Out of curiosity what is your estimated net worth?. Thanks and keep up the great content.
Couple bagillion.
Uncle Rudy at his finest... i watched this video at release at like midnight due to insomnia and went uhoh when i read the title lol...
Fallout is the best MTG investment I’ve seen in years. Wizards fucked up this allocation 😢
Sarcasm I hope
PINK. VISOR. VIDEO! LETS GOOOOOO 👏👏👏
Rudy i think it sounds good as game pieces stay cheap if you dont go for collectors boosters and the collectors have their value in collector boxes. Id call that a win win
It hurt to watch him take the visor off D: