Kentucky Derby 2024 Update Historical Prep Race Winners
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 มิ.ย. 2024
- #kentuckyderby2024
Kentucky Derby 2024 Update. We look at the Prep Races that have produced the most Kentucky Derby winners. The Florida Derby has the most runners who have run in the Florida Derby and won the Kentucky Derby. We look at how the Blue Grass and Wood Morial have done as prep races for the Kentucky Derby.
00:00 Introduction
00:38 Historical Prep Race Kentucky Derby
01:54 Kentucky Derby Prep Race Leaders
02:44 Big 7 Kentucky Derby Prep Races
03:23 Arkansas Derby Kentucky Derby Prep History
03:49 Florida Derby Kentucky Derby Prep History
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thanks for info.,fierceness if gets good post
great show thankx
Very interesting and formidle information
Thanks buddy
thank you great info
Yet again, you gave me a lot to think about. Thank you for making these videos! 😁
We need to keep you busy thinking the next few weeks. the time will go by faster :)
*My* *Derby* *Dozen*
1. Sierra Leone
2. Fierceness
3. Dornoch
4. Just Steel
5. Catching Freedom
6. Honor Marie
7. Resilience
8. Forever Young
9. Stronghold
10. Endlessly
11. Just A Touch
12. Encino
I will be betting 12 horses from the possible 20 but I’ll be more focused on my top 4 when I go to my local OTB.
*Sierra* *Leone*
He’s only lost once in his career and it was by a nose to Dornoch in the Remsen. He defeated Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Resilience who all flattered that Risen Star win when CF and HM went 1-2 in the Louisiana Derby and Resilience won the Wood.
If Sierra Leone gets a clean trip similar to a Rich Strike and Mage from the past two Derbies while Fierceness gets caught in a brutal first half at :46 or less, then Sierra Leone is catching them all. He’s the best closer in this crop especially against the horses he soundly defeated in the Risen Star.
KY Derby is probably Sierra’s best shot at winning a Triple Crown race thanks to the fast pace early on. Preakness usually favors speed and Belmont favors tactical speed and freshness. If Sierra wins the Derby but loses the Preakness, he probably won’t even be in the Belmont. He’ll be saved up for the Travers which also benefits closers like him.
I watched some Florida and Arkansas preps last night, and it seems Track Phantom is one of those Songandaprayer and Spanish Chestnut types who can set a fast enough pace to set it up for Sierra Leone. I think the 2YO champ, Fierceness, is the FASTEST horse while Sierra Leone is the most CONSISTENT. SL was one nose away at being undefeated at 4-0.
Must use in all tickets. He’s a top 3 candidate whether he wins or not.
*Fierceness*
The 2YO champ has shown to be the fastest horse in this crop so far with a 105 Beyer in the BC Juvie and a 110 in the Florida Derby. If he doesn’t bounce like Bellamy Road, he wins this race going away. Maybe by 3-5 lengths with Sierra Leone fast closing for 2nd. But it may not be that simple with 20 horses in a race.
Since 2004, six horses who ran a 110 or higher Beyer in their final prep would later fail to hit the board in the Derby: Lion Heart, The Cliff’s Edge, Read the Footnotes, Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister, and Materiality. Half of them ran in 2004. But the one good thing is Fierceness ran a 105 BSF last year. So he’s shown it’s no fluke or he’s some cheap speed like Sinister Minister was.
The knocks on Fierceness is he might get a lively pace. Horses like Track Phantom, Just A Touch, and Encino like to be on or near the lead. Dornoch, Just Steel, and Forever Young might also keep it quicker near the front. I thought the Derby pace would be slow last year but it wasn’t. Went under :46 and I already knew Verifying and Reincarnate were cooked.
Then add the knock that Fierceness has never won two races in a row. I rewatched the Champagne and Holy Bull and he faded badly in both and he was 1-5 in both. He lost a lot of money for bettors those two times he lost. Has never shown grit in those losses. He simply faded. His inconsistency makes him unreliable but you still can’t throw him out because he’s the champ and the fastest of this crop.
Fierceness is really a bad bet who offers terrible value. Another Pletcher flop in the making. But I respect his class so much, that I can’t simply throw him out. If he runs his race, he wins this by a few lengths. He defeated Muth in Cali who would later flatter him by winning the Arkansas Derby. Muth would probably be the 3rd betting choice if his trainer wasn’t suspended.
Fierceness is very sink or swim and I think his best shot at winning a TC race isn’t the Derby but the Preakness since City of Light and Quality Road never won beyond 9F. And the Preakness is the TC race I think Sierra Leone will most likely lose in like Mage did last year. Pace makes the race and a fast pace in the Derby can help closers while a speed favoring track like Pimlico favors speedy horses.
I believe by post time, Fierceness will be the favorite but slightly over Sierra Leone. A lot of handicappers will realize he’s the class of this crop thanks to the 105 and 110 BSFs that they will drop big money on him late but then watch him lose as the chalk like he did in the Champagne and Holy Bull. Then he may avenge Sierra Leone in the Preakness.
Fierceness could be better played against if you think the pace will be brutal but it would not shock me either way if he wins by daylight or runs off the board. His name might be FIERCEness but he hasn’t shown that in his two losses.
*Dornoch*
I was ready to toss Dornoch because we rarely see a Derby winner fail to hit the board in their last prep and he did that running 4th in the Blue Grass. Sierra Leone got his sweet revenge on him. But Dornoch remains the only horse who defeated Sierra Leone.
The 2023 Remsen looked like the 1966 Chicken Flamingo won by Buckpasser. But Buckpasser was just lazy. How Dornoch won it was from pure determination. The thing is, he never crossed paths with Fierceness. Dornoch won the Fountain of Youth but wasn’t in the Holy Bull or FL Derby. But he has crossed paths with Sierra Leone twice drawing with him at 1-1.
Think last year when Mage kept losing to Forte in Florida. Then Forte gets scratched in Kentucky and Mage ends up winning. Dornoch is the full brother to Mage but they have opposite running styles. It would be cool if we see two full brothers win B2B Derbies. Good Magic and Puca should be proud parents. The Super Magic Bros.! Curlin on top and Big Brown on the bottom. Dornoch is bred to run at 10F.
*Just* *Steel*
1988: Winning Colors
1995: Thunder Gulch
1996: Grindstone
1999: Charismatic
D. Wayne Lukas, baby, Yeah, I know he hasn’t won a Derby in this century. A new generation doesn’t even know who the hell he is anymore. It’s been 25 years since Charismatic. But Muth isn’t in the race and Just Steel just happened to finish 2nd behind him in Arkansas with a 95 BSF which is higher than Stronghold’s SA Derby (89) and Encino’s Lexington (94). And the final eighth closing time in Arkansas was very fast at 12 and change.
Just Steel might be the Justify son to watch over Just A Touch. He seems to be improving in every race. He’s big similar to his dad. He wore blinkers similar to Thunder Gulch. Just Steel is just a flyer. Willing to throw $5 on him at 25-1. Be a great story if D. Wayne Lukas won another Derby at 88, his first since the “1900s”….
It’s NOT going to be two-horse race between Fierceness vs. Sierra Leone 🇸🇱. The form tells you Fierceness wins by open lengths with SL closing for 2nd. But Fierceness could be like Holy Bull in 1994 and Point Given in 2001. And Sierra Leone has never hit over 100 in his BSFs and the median average is around the mid 90s in these final preps which is where many horses are. There’s 20 horses and anything can happen in a race like that.
I will have money for every horse in my Derby Dozen but my top 4 will be my main focus on Star Wars Day. My top 4 for May 4.
I like top 4 horses.mine be with track phatom in top 5 horses. don't see the top 2 running 1-2. in 20 horse field. one probably bor or regress or get boxed in know way ex. box top 2. no money .low payout. believe dornach didn't try in bluegrass. allready had points beat s. Leone in stretch in duel..s. Leon need points more. a win has top points. 2.3 million horse, Chad produce for owners .now pressure really on him to win derby for rich owners. If Nysos was in derby. be my pick to destroy both of them..fastest closer on speed. talk about freight train closer. better than s leon I think.tracm phatom leas every race. won first 2 stakes wire to wire. then asmussen backed him off. seems now dieing in stretch. didn't in 2 stake wins prior. pulling away beating Nash and Timberlake. hidden speed horse conditioned be in exacta or maybe possible win. beautiful muscle cut horse. Asmussen never won derby yet. had gun runner. be conditioning horse to wire field. like dornach and just steel be also in exacta box. problem with s leon , who has he beat. double digit horses at wire. dornach wasn't double digit horse and beat him in stretch out kicked him bye nose. not big on s leon till faces Nysos. or better competion. a leon up his beyer to win here. don't see horse coming from clouds winning every race. have trouble in future . needs to learn break faster. pSs on s. leon for win. Will box with longshots to beat him. good luck !
kind of just like mage. not winning preps before derby. running in moneyin top 5. do believe some trainers feed horse before race seem like tapering off. then kaboom when win big one. Happens all time. wait better odds and purse. where's money. , theirs corruption. especially in this country.
without muth and Nysos in derby. weaker field than most derby. East coast mafia x baffert out do belive. pay more for horses and lose to bffert several times. seems pass on east to administer hidden stimulants. makes better trainer stats. do believe fact in racing. some have mafia pass. others dont.
I’m using fierceness on top with my key horse honor Marie.
Forever Young, Sierra Leone Fierceness Trifecta!
Sierra Leone has yet to hit his stride! I believe it is his race! I know he is going to be there. I think the lightly raced Just A Touch will also be there! That's where I'm at right now! One more for my tri, or, i just might do those two over the field in tri ex 1-2/all 2-1/all ...
Different historical since points era!!
Forever Young and Sierra Lione are very close relatives. From mares that are 3/4ths sisters.
Post draw tells the story .i dont think fearness will like dirt in his face at all .20 horse field lots can happen .florida derby had a weak field this year .im still undecided on my pick
*My* *Derby* *Dozen*
1. Sierra Leone
2. Fierceness
3. Dornoch
4. Just Steel
5. Catching Freedom
6. Honor Marie
7. Resilience
8. Forever Young
9. Stronghold
10. Endlessly
11. Just A Touch
12. Encino
I will be betting 12 horses from the possible 20 but I’ll be more focused on my top 4 when I go to my local OTB.
*Sierra* *Leone*
He’s only lost once in his career and it was by a nose to Dornoch in the Remsen. He defeated Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, and Resilience who all flattered that Risen Star win when CF and HM went 1-2 in the Louisiana Derby and Resilience won the Wood.
If Sierra Leone gets a clean trip similar to a Rich Strike and Mage from the past two Derbies while Fierceness gets caught in a brutal first half at :46 or less, then Sierra Leone is catching them all. He’s the best closer in this crop especially against the horses he soundly defeated in the Risen Star.
KY Derby is probably Sierra’s best shot at winning a Triple Crown race thanks to the fast pace early on. Preakness usually favors speed and Belmont favors tactical speed and freshness. If Sierra wins the Derby but loses the Preakness, he probably won’t even be in the Belmont. He’ll be saved up for the Travers which also benefits closers like him.
I watched some Florida and Arkansas preps last night, and it seems Track Phantom is one of those Songandaprayer and Spanish Chestnut types who can set a fast enough pace to set it up for Sierra Leone. I think the 2YO champ, Fierceness, is the FASTEST horse while Sierra Leone is the most CONSISTENT. SL was one nose away at being undefeated at 4-0.
Must use in all tickets. He’s a top 3 candidate whether he wins or not.
*Fierceness*
The 2YO champ has shown to be the fastest horse in this crop so far with a 105 Beyer in the BC Juvie and a 110 in the Florida Derby. If he doesn’t bounce like Bellamy Road, he wins this race going away. Maybe by 3-5 lengths with Sierra Leone fast closing for 2nd. But it may not be that simple with 20 horses in a race.
Since 2004, six horses who ran a 110 or higher Beyer in their final prep would later fail to hit the board in the Derby: Lion Heart, The Cliff’s Edge, Read the Footnotes, Bellamy Road, Sinister Minister, and Materiality. Half of them ran in 2004. But the one good thing is Fierceness ran a 105 BSF last year. So he’s shown it’s no fluke or he’s some cheap speed like Sinister Minister was.
The knocks on Fierceness is he might get a lively pace. Horses like Track Phantom, Just A Touch, and Encino like to be on or near the lead. Dornoch, Just Steel, and Forever Young might also keep it quicker near the front. I thought the Derby pace would be slow last year but it wasn’t. Went under :46 and I already knew Verifying and Reincarnate were cooked.
Then add the knock that Fierceness has never won two races in a row. I rewatched the Champagne and Holy Bull and he faded badly in both and he was 1-5 in both. He lost a lot of money for bettors those two times he lost. Has never shown grit in those losses. He simply faded. His inconsistency makes him unreliable but you still can’t throw him out because he’s the champ and the fastest of this crop.
Fierceness is really a bad bet who offers terrible value. Another Pletcher flop in the making. But I respect his class so much, that I can’t simply throw him out. If he runs his race, he wins this by a few lengths. He defeated Muth in Cali who would later flatter him by winning the Arkansas Derby. Muth would probably be the 3rd betting choice if his trainer wasn’t suspended.
Fierceness is very sink or swim and I think his best shot at winning a TC race isn’t the Derby but the Preakness since City of Light and Quality Road never won beyond 9F. And the Preakness is the TC race I think Sierra Leone will most likely lose in like Mage did last year. Pace makes the race and a fast pace in the Derby can help closers while a speed favoring track like Pimlico favors speedy horses.
I believe by post time, Fierceness will be the favorite but slightly over Sierra Leone. A lot of handicappers will realize he’s the class of this crop thanks to the 105 and 110 BSFs that they will drop big money on him late but then watch him lose as the chalk like he did in the Champagne and Holy Bull. Then he may avenge Sierra Leone in the Preakness.
Fierceness could be better played against if you think the pace will be brutal but it would not shock me either way if he wins by daylight or runs off the board. His name might be FIERCEness but he hasn’t shown that in his two losses.
*Dornoch*
I was ready to toss Dornoch because we rarely see a Derby winner fail to hit the board in their last prep and he did that running 4th in the Blue Grass. Sierra Leone got his sweet revenge on him. But Dornoch remains the only horse who defeated Sierra Leone.
The 2023 Remsen looked like the 1966 Chicken Flamingo won by Buckpasser. But Buckpasser was just lazy. How Dornoch won it was from pure determination. The thing is, he never crossed paths with Fierceness. Dornoch won the Fountain of Youth but wasn’t in the Holy Bull or FL Derby. But he has crossed paths with Sierra Leone twice drawing with him at 1-1.
Think last year when Mage kept losing to Forte in Florida. Then Forte gets scratched in Kentucky and Mage ends up winning. Dornoch is the full brother to Mage but they have opposite running styles. It would be cool if we see two full brothers win B2B Derbies. Good Magic and Puca should be proud parents. The Super Magic Bros.! Curlin on top and Big Brown on the bottom. Dornoch is bred to run at 10F.
*Just* *Steel*
1988: Winning Colors
1995: Thunder Gulch
1996: Grindstone
1999: Charismatic
D. Wayne Lukas, baby, Yeah, I know he hasn’t won a Derby in this century. A new generation doesn’t even know who the hell he is anymore. It’s been 25 years since Charismatic. But Muth isn’t in the race and Just Steel just happened to finish 2nd behind him in Arkansas with a 95 BSF which is higher than Stronghold’s SA Derby (89) and Encino’s Lexington (94). And the final eighth closing time in Arkansas was very fast at 12 and change.
Just Steel might be the Justify son to watch over Just A Touch. He seems to be improving in every race. He’s big similar to his dad. He wore blinkers similar to Thunder Gulch. Just Steel is just a flyer. Willing to throw $5 on him at 25-1. Be a great story if D. Wayne Lukas won another Derby at 88, his first since the “1900s”….
It’s NOT going to be two-horse race between Fierceness vs. Sierra Leone 🇸🇱. The form tells you Fierceness wins by open lengths with SL closing for 2nd. But Fierceness could be like Holy Bull in 1994 and Point Given in 2001. And Sierra Leone has never hit over 100 in his BSFs and the median average is around the mid 90s in these final preps which is where many horses are. There’s 20 horses and anything can happen in a race like that.
I will have money for every horse in my Derby Dozen but my top 4 will be my main focus on Star Wars Day. My top 4 for May 4.
You are doing a great job! I am wondering if you are going to do a take on where each horse is going to be likely to be in the pack from start to finish. They say pace makes the race. Of course, we know Fierceness, Track Phantom, Forever Young, Dornoch, Just a Touch, Encino and Epic Ride are usually forwardly placed and Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie are closers. You have done trip notes too with your show about Forever Young so maybe that area is covered already.
Another area that might become important is if the track comes up wet. I'm sure you'll have some good information on those topics and post positions too.
I think there are two horses from Japan in the race. Forever Young by way of the Arabian Peninsula and T O Password who won the Japanese slot. As usual, the Europeans are not using their slot in the Derby.
I'm doing a Running Style Video on Friday, next week, I will update Speed and Pace. Thursday we do a Pace Analysis on Early Pace and Late Pace.
@@derbyologist Great information. Will be watching those updates.
I also hope to hear what you think about the Post Position Draw when it comes out and the track conditions based on the Derby Day weather.
I like your rational scientifically oriented approach but, of course, I realize there is still bound to be a lot that is subjective.
PLEASE!!! Check your info. Street sense ran 2nd in the blue grass stakes to a longshot.
Yor right I lost a big bet on that one
In 2007, Dominican won the Blue grass at about 20 to 1 odds.
Medina spirit Santa Anita derby and maximum security from Florida derby...American pharoah a santanita derby base who won the Arkansas derby..my pick.is always the best time and las 3/8 fraction of a Santa Anita o Florida derby horse on 1 1/8 distance..I hit the super of always dreaming, justify, American pharoah,Nyquist and maximum security but was DQ.
Leone,honor Marie,just steel,catching freedom, n one more for superfecta box
Waiting to see where Joel Rosario is going to be and ride does he get Sierra Leone or another how about endlessly whats his status thank you Craig xoxox love the show lets go kinza for the oaks
yes the wood in newyork doesn't get the top horses for the kd but newyork gets top horses for the belmont stks.
Post position and weather then I’ll be able to make my final choices
Fierceness is going to blow em out sierra leone seco d forever young third dornoch fourth real steel fifth ive been deep into the horse races since i was nine years old going to the track supposed to be 10 to get in but i lied to get in❤
When will Chad Brown or Steve Assmussen will win the Kentucky derby ? Finally what about jockey Ira’s Ortiz JR?
Irad Ortiz is riding Domestic Product this year.
please please please everyone bet this no shot Japan horse
Bluegrass got the Stong Prep and Arkansas Derby (unfortunately the Winner can't Run in KD)
Preakness for Muth
Fierceness. /. 20 hartsfield he will have a hard time /. Getting dirt kicked in his face.....
The kentucky derby will be won by fierceness 1 48 1 for 9 furlongs behind splits of 1 11 3 for six furlongs easy the exacta horses are strong hold sierra leone and my long shot catching freedom good outsider that
craig does forever young's amercian bloodlines give him an edge over the past japan pony's?
Possibly - some good bloodlines and he seems to have a better temperament