Top 10 S&P 500 Stock Analysis (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA...)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ก.ค. 2024
- Top 10 S&P 500 stocks analysed!
0:00 Power of S&P 500
2:44 AAPL
5:25 MSFT
6:56 AMZN
10:52 NVIDIA
14:03 GOOG
17:20 BRK
18:33 TSLA
20:14 META
21:00 UNH
23:13 XOM
24:33 Market Overview
BRK Analysis sven-carlin-research-platform...
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My life feels fixed after horrible markets but AUZ300X is the one I believe in!
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The flow and utility of AUZ300X integrating with online stores is just amazing concept through and through
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AUZ300X is my safety asset along with tether so i'm really glad to hear all this!! thank you very much
Please do not stop this series!!!!!
:-)
@@Value-Investing absolutely loved the Market Overview at the end. above "fair" should only be variations of pricy and below "fair" only variations of cheap. who said stock analysis videos cant be funny?
@@Value-Investing You used to say buy and hold Amazon pretty safe 5-6 years long term investment and good chance to have doubled in 6 years. Now it's like swing trade it xd
Have not watched you in so long Sven, great video.
I commented on a video you posted on Tesla in 2020/2021 saying how I did not agree with your perspective and how I thought nothing could go wrong, good times will last and you replied to me last year laughing at me 😂.
So much to learn thank you for your work
Sorry to hear that, for me it is about risk and reward! but, when it comes to TSLA, you never know...
Sempre ben druze Sven, grazie per il servizio
grazie!
Education, enjoyable and spot on IMO... Thanks Sven!!
Amazing video, Sven! It is always good to know what price would be a good entry point for such amazing businesses. Please continue the series!
Will do!
Much better assessment on AMZN! Nice work, Sven.
Thank you Sven, very nice video
thanks!
Great learning Sven, indeed market is still pricy and never follow the hypes!
Thank you for sharing
My pleasure!
Thank U so much 🙏 Sven. Thanks for all your insights + sharing
thank you!
Gran bel lavoro, Sven!!
grazie!
This was awesome!! Keep it going!
Thank you! Will do!
Thank you for the Analysis. Bought Seeking Alpha with your Link last week. Enjoying it so far. Would love an Analysis of UFP industries or Comcast :)
thanks for the support and for the suggesting!
Thanks for the video it was great. I've been following your channel for a while and this was the first video where I pretty much agreed with you on everything (maybe I'm becoming more of a value investor). I owned quite a lot of the names on the list but today hold none of them today and even have short positions on some. I'd rotated out of tech a little too early, timed oil perfectly and recent sells went into cash and bonds (25%) so still 75% invested in the stock market.
haha, thanks for sharing!
Thanks for the bucket of cold water, Sven. I like your rational content. One question:
How do you see the VOO and VTI ETFs in the next 5 years considering a very possible recession on the way? The ETFs with a great exposure on S&P500 may not be the best bets but... are the other ones safer? Well, that's something I'd love to hear from you. Thanks!
nothing changes there, when the S&P 500 goes down, all follows!
awesome video !
question - are there any real differences between buying the top names and just buying the s&p500? obviously you can weight more in choosing individual names, and the s&p500 rebalances (stocks come and go) but is that about all?
I found your analysis interesting. Looking forward to the next video. Maybe looking at 10 S&P 500 stocks that have dropped the most in the last year would provide more interesting stocks to evaluate?
I will look at all of them... so will cover those too..
Thanks for another investing masterclass!!
More to come!
Sven, thanks for analysis. I have a question: why do you think that the fair PE for different stock along the road is 10, if for example JNJ with almost no growth is trading with PE 22+
depends on long-term interest rates and inflation!
Video full of value, always learning with those researches
Glad it was helpful!
The lesson I'm learning over and over again from Sven and other good investors is that it's all about the art of saying no. Every emotion in me wants to put money in the market for all kinds of reasons that aren't related to the fundamental business case or intrinsic value, like not wanting to miss the window. But the more you learn to say no, the better your yesses will be. You will still make mistakes but less disastrous ones as a result.
thanks for adding the nice comment!
Thx Sven, very interesting idea on Amazon
:-)
Perhaps going for the value part of SP500 is a better buy, it trades for around 11 P/E (VLUE), combine that with some msci world quality or low volatility and you still are around 13-14 P/E, and you have modest tilt towards value and profitability and some modest global diversification. Anyways, great stuff from Sven.
I will get to it:-)
Probably full of energy stocks and financials. I think I'll give that a miss!
@@cookiejar01 Nope, tech is dominant sector in VLUE (ishares USA enhanced value).
@@massafelipe8063 thanks, that's worth having a look 👌 😀
@@cookiejar01 VLUE for US investors and IUVL for non US investors (same thing).
I love it when analysts say Apple is too expensive and too risky. They’ve been saying it every year for the last 15 years. I guess eventually someone has to be right lol
wrong, some analysis were saying it was very cheap at a PE ratio of 10 in 2016 :-) seekingalpha.com/article/3962090-apple-for-next-40-years
@@Value-Investing ha true, yeah not saying there weren’t times where apple might have dipped enough to meet the criteria for cheap along the way, but even if you bought apple at its most overpriced point, be it ten or even five years ago, you’d still be sitting pretty today.
I'm glad i didn't know your channel when this video came out. I would have sold NVDA if I had listened to you! Any reviews on your own opinions? Why do you think you were wrong back then on NVDA?
Great content, as always Sven. Would love to hear your take on recent Alibaba split news.
nothing to add, that is just cosmetics...
What tools do you use to track historic data? I currently track my stocks and others using the Google Finance API, but I can't get historic P/E figures. Are there any good tools or resources you could recommend to get that type of info?
should you sell a little of AUZ300X when you start to make a profit or just hold?
Great series.
Sven, So what if your cost basis is $43 on $NVDA? Is this something one should hold? Or sell?
Hey Sven, thank you very much for your videos. I want to ask a question about russian market, I know you payed attention to it in the past before the war. Now it's 50-60% down from all time high and you can buy stalwarts of the market with P/Es of 2-5, powerful companies with good margins and pricing power. Investing as a foreigner is of course either impossible or risky, but would you say that it's a tremendously good risk/reward for a russian citizen to invest now? I just see huge opportunity even in the light of sanctions hitting the economy
if you think after Putin is gone it will turn for the better, plus, if you can buy.... But, as a friend told me for investing: main rule when dealing with the devil: don't!
This is a good one. Keep it up.
Thanks, will do!
Really Great job❤
Thanks 😄
Sven, in the case of meta you must adjust fcf. If the metaverse doesn't work they will be stop investing 16b per year in it. My guess is meta now is a little bit pricy but close to fair value. I will resume buying under 180
NVDA is a generational opportunity right now... And I mean going short not long
I agree
hahahaha, good one!
Great series
Thanks!
I completely agree with you on Apple. ROIC of the last two years was 50% while historic is more on the 25%. So I expect exactly a possible 50% downturn as you mentioned
thanks for sharing that perspective!
Apple had their downturn of around 30% already. Sorry if you missed it but expecting anything more than while you wait on the sidelines is what’s risky.
@@BusterDarcy I have alternatives, if it come in my fair value range I’ll buy, otherwise I’ll pick other stocks
@@SpazzaGB totally fair if the goal is to find companies on sale with the expectation they will do a fast run up after you buy. For me, it’s more about finding incredible companies that I know I can buy and hold for the next decade or longer and be handsomely rewarded regardless of what my entry point was, no timing needed. Very few companies like that out there and Apple, in my estimation, is one of them.
@@BusterDarcy You have a good point, but if you don't look at the price, also MSFT NVDA, VISA etc are incredible. Let's talk again about Apple in 2 or three quarters when interest rate will impact the real economy... Apple is incredible but sells dicretionary items
Thanks for that objective take, Svend.
Can’t wait for you to do a video on Alibaba and there recent news
Cheers
nothing much changes there...
hi Sven,
would be gratefull to hear your opinion on Enphase
thanks for suggesting!
Grazie Sven
:-)
Great stuff. I agree with you that these all look over valued and I generally would not buy growth stocks.
So you are going to cover all 500 stocks in S&P? Bless you so much if yes.
That's the plan!
Great video. What can justify these prices? The FED bringing rates to 0 and printing more money.
yes, that is the expectation!
So those shares are to expansive to buy, but does META to expansive to HOLD, too?
Can I get multiple entries for AUZ300X or only one?
Fantastic
Thank you so much 😀
This is a good one…. But that’s normal. Lol Sven always has great videos.
thanks!
What do you think about SOXL as a periodic stock?
a great way to lose your money fast - Keep in mind it is a daily product, might read the prospectus..
can you please make amd and avgo?
I agree with you on Nvidia. And FB was the only one I bought last fall.
thanks for sharing!
I bought at 100$, best trade i've made in a long time.
Now is the moment in which if you say "Chat gpt" during an earnings call you get +10% no matter the results. Seems we are headed towards another cute bubble in US equities.
last year the magic words were ' AI '....
And just like in 2021 if your company mentioned anything about EV, clean energy, fintech etc it went up 10-20 percent. In 2022 that bubble popped and most of those stocks haven’t recovered. It just let it play out and stay out of the hype. It will be the same story eventually.
Now that Amazons AUZ300X is around it's all about the question when and how much. I prefer this over ATOM, ALGO, L2 based ones and whatsoever
Do you think BRK is a double risk, one because it's on the higher range of the historical valuation and two because it's invested in a very pricy business like Apple?
Apple doesn't influence my valuation much, but the market might look at that too - good point!
Great video! I didn't know Microsoft is cyclical. I did my own DCF of Google and it showed a fair value at some $90 dollars, with a few 2-3 % buybacks. So I don't know what to think of your worst case $50... Good video anyway. Thanks.
it is exactly as you said, a worst case! My plan is to watch 50 businesses, some of them will hit a worst case scenario, which will then make them a possible buy for me...
thanks
hank you!
I don't understand the TSLA and NVIDIA evaluations at all. The rest are a tad on the high side but they are amazing businesses which are also expanding internationally into a lot of high growth markets.
Thank you sir
So nice of you
Hahaha started laughing when you started to talk about Tesla.
Always liked your subtle humour.
Thanks for the video Dr. Carlin !!
:-)
I hold AUZ300X. Very promising project, and its ecosystem maintains complete anonymity
You're spot on about oil stocks. What I find shocking is that even experienced value investors are falling for this trap of buying them at the top. Because... they have a low PE 😂😢
it is always easy to buy a stock that is going up:-)) A low PE helps even more...
good stuff
thanks!
Omg, i have been saying that about Nvidia for so long 😂 Most overvalued stock in the SNP500 for sure!
:-)))
Prices might be crazy but still around 20-30% from their all time high of over 1 year ago. A lot of money still on the sideline and shorts are getting squeezed.
Great video! I've been keeping away from the top S&P 500 stocks for a while now as well given the market breadth had been lacking (only the top tech stocks are carrying the entire S&P 500). Can you do a deep dive on semiconductors in general? Especially $AMD valuation? I've been a long time holder from $20 to $140 and then became a buyer at $70 again. It is hovering near $100 and consolidating. AMD's future market share growth is promising but according to my numbers, their PEG ratio is expensive now. Not sure whther to sell. Also some other key tickers: $LSCC, $LRCX, and $TSM.
thanks for sharing!
The key to becoming wealthy is buying high quality companies at reasonable or cheap prices.
You have to be extremely patient.
The second key requirement is to control your emotions. For example i have a holding in nvidia. When its sky rocketing in price a lot of people would get caught up in the hype & buy more. Similarly people often sell a stock when share prices crash.
In essence buy quality companies at reasonable prices & hold them
yep!
I was sure the year would end badly for me but I think Amazons AUZ300X is spot on with what they do and how they do it. Can't say for how long it's gonna work and for sure it is overyhped right now but even for half a year or something it would be smart to ride the wave and then eventually jump away but the thing is why this is smart right now is because it's so cheap, won't ever find a better entry than now
Hi Sven, @ 22:29 regarding UNH and Warren Buffet, could it be that right around that time (2010) congress passed the ACA (Obamacare), which everyone thought will expand the U.S public healthcare system. Instead, it was actually a boon to health insurance companies. They got mandated customers 🙂
interesting, thanks for sharing!
Out of these 10 companies what are your top two conviction stock over longterm will havw the best growth?
if you mean business ahead - Amazon looks ok, BRK too...
AUZ300X, ETH, and more would be great.
What do you think of ABG? This is super undervalued with huge margin
haven't looked at it :-(
Please do as i believe this is one of the most undervalued sp500 stock out there with 25% compounding for decade to come
It's not possible to hide it longer and all of us should take some time to think about AUZ300X and what it will do to the economoy. On my side I'm very optimistic with this and there is no better time to know about that than now
Sven did his analysis, he was convinced google was a buy at less than $100. When the time came to buy at that price he managed to convince himself again that not yet!!
The market can f**k with everyone’s emotion 😅😅😂😂😂
that is certainly a perspective, my perspective is that I make decisions based on information accumulation and careful weighting...
I'm confused. Did you removed from YT portfolio google or facebook? If so, where i can find info what you are doing with that education yt portfolio?
I think just FB, half of it, the remaining is to be followed! On the portfolio, I'll make an update soon.
Amazon’s Record breaking coin AUZ300X with actual use case! Great team and coolest community
One off my investment mistakes- selling Apple in February 2020 because of this virus, after holding it since 2017 hoping for by back cheaper, and then missing the boat…. Selling Microsoft in 2014 due to tax reasons , boat missed again …..Lesson learned (hopefully)
:-)
Good info, but sometimes this is how value only investors miss out on opportunities fail to invest in top tier quality. I generalized here, but to make a point.
also uses Warrent Buffet as an example for $UNH, but WB holds Apple as one of his biggest position still.
WB won't sell Apple, that is not how he operates. But yes, value investing is about missing those growth opportunities :-)))
I baught meta and i am up about 41% should i sell now or hold? Where should i invest if i do not see any opportunities at the moment and do not have the time to heavily research?
Bro you cant be asking this in a youtube comment section 😂 If you have to ask and you made a profit, sell it
:-)
If you are sure Nvidia is going to drop, would you consider shorting the stock ? Thank you.
I played with shorting a bit, but too dangerous...th-cam.com/video/lUSBBozs7bA/w-d-xo.html
@@Value-Investing yeah shorting is risky. i was shorting example rolls royce when they introduce lockdown with flying ban so logically i was thinking, no flights = losing orders for plane engines, but market reacted at first counter logically and price was soaring . i was using leverage. i get strong adrenaline shot. fortunately price droped and i sell with small loss. with long position you can always dca even if you buy on the ath hehe.
Shorting make almost no sense. The most you can make is 100% but you can lose infinite...
@@maxjames00077 Agreed, but Nvidia has a long way to fall. There's money to be made swing trading it.
@@TheOriginalPickleRick at a trillion mktcap and worsening macros i might
Most of us missed the golden times of BTC,ETH,XRP and so on but that's no reason to miss Amazons AUZ300X while that is still in the earliest phase of where you can get it. Make up your decision this will be the one time where you have the chance to do so
Nvidia is going up like crazy but they are the main builder or the new internet based on Ai and Machine learning tranin... But 25 price sale is insane...
:-)))
$TLSA had updated their CAGR estimates, I believe. Most analysts have revised their numbers down to an average growth of 40-45%. I estimated a conservative 30% growth given the likelihood of a recession. TSLA also will continue to dominate when it comes to profit margin outperforming their competitors so I estimate more than 10% net profit margin on average. There is also expansion of product lines into the future, including their energy business (selling megapacks). Though strictly from a value perspective, at what price would you then consider buying at? I bought $TSLA at $120 and then rode it all the way up to $200 before I sold but am itching to get back in.
ok, but 50% or 30% growth changes the valuation by 50% or more... ah, but who cares about that,
for Amzn. I think you should make a pie chart for earnings and not net sales to better understand your viewer comment.
thanks for suggesting!
Nice. I bought meta at $100 and sold at $200. Cash is king 🙂
Nice work!
Cash is never king - Warren Buffett
Good analysis but what is missing is the risk of inflation driving nominal revenues/earnings/market caps up.
So a 50-60% drop might occur in real terms but not in nominal.
inflation video coming soon - summary: if there is inflation ok, if not also ok - it doesn't change real returns....
Interesting talk about Amazons AUZ300X I suggest anyone to listen to the guy talking about it in the video. Personally I didn't think they would really do that but seems like the launch just happened and there are enough slots available, could be worth huh
Super cool video ! Do you think amazons AUZ300X will pump before ETH ? I ask myself if there is a pattern in the order of the altcoins pumps.
AI is an exciting area and will surely make NVDA a lot of money over the next few years, but like you, I just can't bring myself to pay such an outrageous valuation even assuming that NVDA is going to be the only shovel seller in the upcoming AI goldrush.
:-)
Like everybody knows ico projects make x10 x20 in bear seasons I've joined a couple of projects along with AUZ300X let's see what happens
Amazon I Never understood- the share based compensation is crazy- there is no shareholder mindset
that is the so called shared economies of scale model... shareholder third...
Some countries are here for thousands years not hundreds. Biggest boom of SP500 was between 2010-2020 thanks to cheap money printed. Now this unrealistic evaluations are going down.
that is a good description!
MSFT since jan 2023, raised their prices for office product by 10-20%! Upcoming quarter ia gonna be very solid. Also their integration of Chatgpt should add aolid growth and more interest in msft products
interesting!
I am sure AUZ300X will grow. That's why I just keep buying ada on bfx
The year began and something is already making it better than the entire 2022. Amazons AUZ300X came out and it's such a great thing no matter where you come from. Everyone can participate and it is making many things easier than they have been. For example I live in France and this is something no one else could do for me here, if I just keep sitting on my toes for the next 5 years I'd simply go broke, now I can change that.
Well AI is a big thing and will be only bigger. Msft is in good position, so is NVDA.
However this is not about the future but about financials. Markets are kinda strange in the ways they value the nearest future vs far. What seems matter most in markets for price is 1-2 years tops
Your value analysis is great. FB was spot on a few months ago.
People think ai will bring value next week. The internet was also a big thing but value was created over a decade. The cost of running gpt against a google search query is huge. For now it's pure speculation.
yes, it took CSCO 15 years to deliver on the 2000 expectations.... 90% down in the mean-time...
for now is mostly hype. 2020-2021 everyone was hyping ev. ev is a future and all this bs hype. nio 60 dolllars lucid 60 dollars, chargepoint 40-50 dollars. check the price now. what happen? future suddenly dissapear.
Well the internet is a big thing and will be only be bigger. This is what people said in 2000 before internet stocks crashed and most either went bankrupt or never recovered to their original highs.
Word spreads really fast with AUZ300X doesn't it?
Look like Algorand has the same chart then Amazons AUZ300X
Bad news with SOL but AUZ300X. breaking grounds right now.
AUZ300X at less than $1. is like BTC at $100. When AUZ300X finally blows it's gonna be epic.
Amazons AUZ300X is lit