Bill Gross on Bond Yields, Regional Banks, Opportunities
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 ส.ค. 2023
- Pimco co-founder Bill Gross discusses US bond yields, his views on regional banks and stock market valuations, and where he is finding investment opportunities with Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld on "Bloomberg Markets: The Close."
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0:00: 📉 There is a case for 3% inflation going forward, which could lead to the Fed considering lowering rates; however, the 10-year treasury is overvalued and may return to proper evaluation.
3:09: 📈 Higher rates are a sign of a healthy economy, but real yields suggest a slowdown in the economy and containment of inflation.
6:43: 📉 The global bond markets are showing signs of breaking into higher territory, while the 10-year treasury is not at a favorable level.
9:56: 📉 The speaker finds it odd that 30-year treasuries are at a higher yield than before the mini panic, and suggests that regional banks may have reduced duration to mitigate the impact on their assets.
13:20: 📈 The stock market is overvalued based on low equity risk premium and high PE ratios, but AI may have a positive impact on profits in various sectors.
16:55: 📉 The five-year real interest rate has gone from a minus 200 to a plus 200, causing a decrease in the five-year and 10-year TIPS and potentially impacting stock market levels.
Recap by Tammy AI
Good luck with 3% inflation going forward wishful thinking when the government continues crisis-like deficit spending 8% of the economy…
Absurdly high twin deficits do matter, Bill.
Good to see Bill after a very long time
Interesting conversation, thank you!
Hello all - is bill gross saying not to buy t bills now paying at 4.16% but wait till get to 4.60%? Do have this correct? Thanks
San Francisco FED President Mary Daley had an interesting interview on Yahoo Finance last week. She said we need 2% so that consumers can absorb the higher spikes and volatility that come with food/gas. Further, she said it's a mistake to assume they are only looking at headline inflation as their target. The market is completely ignoring what the FED is saying and if they're wrong, this won't end well for the market. I think it's crazy to think the FED will lower interest rates without some big economic need like a recession so if the soft landing is correct, rates could remain high for several years.
Yeah, it’s foolish and greedy to price in a rate cut but ignore the pricing in of the very event that will necessitate the rate cut (asset prices must first go down in order to come BACK up). If the fed doesn’t cut rates, the equities market is overvalued. If the fed does cut rates, there will be a period of time before that in which equities will be cheaper than they are today.
Yes!
Why raise rates and at the same time have $1T reverse repos?
I would pay to hear his ideas
If you see the fed relaxing and real time prices of real estate increasing, please go all-in on commodities to protect your wealth.
If you want to protect the purchasing power of some capital, buying a ladder of TIPS at today’s real yields close to positive 2% would certainly be an option to consider. By purchasing a ladder, you can provide for your income needs as TIPS mature year by year, so you can hold all TIPS to maturity, which guarantees that you receive the real yields quoted at purchase time, with no impact from the variability of real interest rates in the market over time.
Every past metric for describing a recession has been ignored-- NEVER believe anything until it is officially denied.
I'd say nothing is undervalued and that is a sign of too much liquidity.
Reality isn't that way . Inflation remain & is moving higher ... government short of $ ,only high interest to attract buyer.
Why would somebody lock in a 30 year bond yeald @ 4.960% when they could get a 1 year bond yeald @ 5.483%? (Current Value) Serious question.
You wouldn't, unless you feel FED rates are coming down soon, and the country isn't running a massive deficit.
@@mikepepper8395 Thanks for the answer man.
Peterson took the shot! He ain't smart!
There is no tweet it's X...ing
it was a 50 percent house hold rebuilding theres still a stage three
But what about the FED moves? No baring?
I have been following your videos for Months now and i have been wanting to make outstanding progress with my investment. Truly, The SP500 is a self-correcting portfolio, Following this principles, i want suggestions as to a way to protect my portfolio of $580k.
Well the bigger the risk, the bigger the reward and such impeccable decisions are better guided by professionals
Yes true, I have been in touch with a financial advisor. With an initial starting reserve of $80k, my advisor chooses the entry and exit commands for my portfolio, which has grown to approximately $550k.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
I started out with an FA named Nicole Desiree Simon Her honest approach gives me complete ownership and control over my position, and her rates are incredibly affordable given my ROI.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!
That is not what an equity risk premium is… hahaha he said the inverse of the P/E and whaaa?
Elliott Wave Analysis suggests, Wave 1 of (5) So higher levels in line with the USD
Look at me
who you, why?@@WS-jw9ie
Tlt at a 20year low is overvalued, just wait for the recession and cuts. He must still be accumulating
that's what i was thinking.
I think you mean undervalued and TLT is more at a 12 year low
Apple and Microsoft can tolerate todays interest rates. The entire rest of the economy (consumers, local state federal govts, real estate)? No way! I am taking theother side of this trade 😂.
Still going south..he's accumulating losses..
Do not fight Jay Powell
@@joaofeiteira6309 i was being sarcastic
Inflation matters Very Little, almost Irrelevant Now and Always....
这是真的
hah
No sound
There will be homeless tents occupying the space where the ATM machine got ripped off the wall!
Powell is pointing and hollering at clouds like old man Simpson!
By doing what? raising interest rates back to normal levels? Come on man l. You want cheaper houses no? So let the rate go up! up up up up!!!
He needs to shock markets! As for home prices I could give a shit? I haven't found anything I want to pay 30 years of interest on and probably never will?
Homeownership is a television thing!
With all this debt of 31 Trillion . . . .Bonds are not safe .
The publication The Economist makes a lot of mistakes.
I smell fish in the walls why would that be ?
wtf?
Treasury yields are in backwardation; the dollar will tank.
6 Trillion Dollars in Residential Mortgages Hello World
Cantillionaire wants more money printing
Stick with 60/40 stocks and bonds allocation via VTI and BND. Go golfing. Class dismissed.
bond king lol
This guy makes no sense
Does he have a health issue? Is that why his hair looks strange? (his left, our right side of his head)
A billion bucks and this is the best this guy can look?
Sadly, this guy no longer makes any sense.
I never understood why this guy is considered a guru. He is saying that 5% is going back to 2% because that is what we used to have!! That is not analysis. When you use the "proper" based on what? You can say the usual but proper means you have a fundamental reason which he did not state. He kept repeating rates over and over and over with zero insight. Yet he is considered the Bond authority!!
Nobody wants to reveal their cards on live tv.
He looks horrible however
He will be 80 next Birthday !!
The case for 3% Inflation 😂 yeah you will never see it.🤣🔥📉🔥🏛🔥💵🔥😆🤡🌏