For many years I held the weighted and unweighted S&P 500 etf...and for many years they ran pretty concurrent in returns, however recently the return on the equal rated etf has not only significantly under performed the weighted, but overall not performed that well.
A great interview. One point I've just spent some time thinking about, it's a bit harsh saying if all new investors who invested in Nvidia just got lucky. It really depends on how much research they did. Stan Druckenmiller brought Nvidia after GPT-3 came out and held most of his stake through to Q1 2024, and he's a great investor. Nvidia's P/E hasn't actually changed from Jan 2023 average, so it can't be said that investor's got lucky on the valuation multiple going crazy either. Of course if an investor didn't do much research, and believes they can replicate 100s of percentage point returns each year, then yes, that can't be replicated. But if they realized the short-term demand for their A.I chips, brought as part of their portfolio and then it went up multiples, then it's at least a combination of smart and lucky.
As always, very interesting content. I see many paralells from stock investing to body building. A very strong one is that each human is different and figuring out (quickly) what works out best for you has an huge effect on the results.
Great video, especially about the need for an investment strategy (and Investor) to have a degree of humility. I find that when you really analyse a company and their sector, so much is an 'important unknowable' and you in fact know so very little, that all you can do is stack the odds in your favour, correctly weight the few important factors.... and then just strap yourself in to the vissitudes of the market and wait. Humility and a good process. 👍
I agree with a lot, but staying completely out of the magnificent seven just because they are the biggest and most talked about is not necessarily the best approach either. Just look at how cheap Meta got in 2022. It's funny because one would think that the largest companies in the world would be efficiently priced, but it is clearly not the case. There is value to be found in both small and large companies i think. The good thing about being an individual investor is that you can move freely, you're not limited to either small or big companies.
I agree in general, but I think there is so much hype on the Mag 7 that they are priced from the hype. As Buffett processes, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
Actually utilities have outperformed the Mag 7 this year and many of the Mag 7 are a good value, especially considering what unique dominant businesses they are.
From my side, I guess the buying GOLD is great for the wealth, since the countries are doing so to restore wealth. Its my 2 scents of analysis. Love ur analogy.
After endless thinking & analysis, we find that after taxes and fees, a market cap weighted index is the intelligent strategy. Now you have time to pursue other interests.
For many years I held the weighted and unweighted S&P 500 etf...and for many years they ran pretty concurrent in returns, however recently the return on the equal rated etf has not only significantly under performed the weighted, but overall not performed that well.
Guy love your interviews your casino analogy has to be one of the best I've heard
A great interview. One point I've just spent some time thinking about, it's a bit harsh saying if all new investors who invested in Nvidia just got lucky. It really depends on how much research they did. Stan Druckenmiller brought Nvidia after GPT-3 came out and held most of his stake through to Q1 2024, and he's a great investor. Nvidia's P/E hasn't actually changed from Jan 2023 average, so it can't be said that investor's got lucky on the valuation multiple going crazy either. Of course if an investor didn't do much research, and believes they can replicate 100s of percentage point returns each year, then yes, that can't be replicated. But if they realized the short-term demand for their A.I chips, brought as part of their portfolio and then it went up multiples, then it's at least a combination of smart and lucky.
What a DELIGHTFUL Interview Guy!
As always, very interesting content. I see many paralells from stock investing to body building. A very strong one is that each human is different and figuring out (quickly) what works out best for you has an huge effect on the results.
Interesting conversation! What the name of Guys interview Partner? Could anyone post the name of his youtubechannel ?
His name is Daniel Pronk
Daniel Pronk wrote book about investing
By the way, who is the interviewer? Does he have a TH-cam channel?
Daniel Pronk
Great video, especially about the need for an investment strategy (and Investor) to have a degree of humility.
I find that when you really analyse a company and their sector, so much is an 'important unknowable' and you in fact know so very little, that all you can do is stack the odds in your favour, correctly weight the few important factors.... and then just strap yourself in to the vissitudes of the market and wait. Humility and a good process. 👍
Listening to your podcast always gives me some new dimension to analyze what is happening in this market.
I agree with a lot, but staying completely out of the magnificent seven just because they are the biggest and most talked about is not necessarily the best approach either. Just look at how cheap Meta got in 2022. It's funny because one would think that the largest companies in the world would be efficiently priced, but it is clearly not the case. There is value to be found in both small and large companies i think. The good thing about being an individual investor is that you can move freely, you're not limited to either small or big companies.
I agree in general, but I think there is so much hype on the Mag 7 that they are priced from the hype. As Buffett processes, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
Actually utilities have outperformed the Mag 7 this year and many of the Mag 7 are a good value, especially considering what unique dominant businesses they are.
From my side, I guess the buying GOLD is great for the wealth, since the countries are doing so to restore wealth. Its my 2 scents of analysis. Love ur analogy.
Equal cap weight index doesn’t work Joel Greenblatt got this wrong. Stick to regular indexing
Agreed.
Value Investing is Replicatable, the fundamentals give yOu a road map to follow. I enjoyed the Chat Fella’s. Always.
JS
@@GSpier12 What is on your list of rules or questions and answers you have to go through in order to buy or sell something?
Why not just buy mag7 only😊
Never take your eye off the ball.
After endless thinking & analysis, we find that after taxes and fees, a market cap weighted index is the intelligent strategy.
Now you have time to pursue other interests.
Is this a quote from someone, or your own?
It’s hard if you ignore trends such as bitcoin
What is the value of BTC?
@@EmilJurgens excellent question. A monetary system that functions independently of any governmental system or central authority.