On the comparison to air travel at 26:14 I neglected Southwest flights, which is a pretty big oversight. That's an additional ~56 flights and ~8,000 seats daily, so limited-stop, non-car travel demand between the two areas is roughly 50-80% higher than supposed in the video.
66 billion to connect two of the top 5 largest cities in the country is actually fairly reasonable by American standards. Not to mention the higher speed route east of LA could be used by CAHSR and Brightline west
Great point! And it’d be the most logical first leg connecting West Coast HSR networks to those in the East. Following the I-10 corridor, it would go onwards through Tucson, Las Cruces, El Paso, and finally San Antonio/Austin where it’d connect to the Dallas-Houston-San Antonio HSR triangle & beyond. It would have a great opportunity to show-off its speed on the notoriously vast plains of Eastern Texas. Thinking more internationally, San Antonio offers the best HSR departure point for an eventual line through Nuevo León on Mexico’s East Coast towards Mexico City.
@@LeonSKennedy7777 honestly I don't think transcontinental high speed rail is ever going to be viable, at least not for a long time. El Paso -- San Ant. is ridiculously far and they aren't even very big cities. Pheonix --El Paso also has questionable demand for HSR. It doesn't really make much sense to connect our hypothetical HSR hubs together for the sake of connecting them together. The only ones that make sense are NE to SE and NE to Midwest. Because they actually have big cities close to each other.
@@romanrat5613yeah, it only makes sense if costs of energy or environmental conditions radically shift to the point that air travel is no longer viable.
We don't deserve you. You do such good work and you adding animation and this 3d visual has really set you apart and make me realize that so many projects are doable if we just spend the money and we'd see the benefits for all long and short term. Keep up the great work.
Trying to actually build these lines in 3d space helps a lot in realizing if they are possible. It really has changed my perspective. I would say few things are impossible. The question really is if they're worth the expense. Thank you, btw!
@@LucidStew I think some Tweeks here and there for some of them might be needed but overall they're all really good. Thought out and practically. Been a long time viewer so it's been nice to see you evolve to were you are now
OMG OMG Lucid Stew! I live in Palm Springs and this would be a GAME CHANGER!!! I soooo wish we had a high-speed rail link to LA. I go so often! Such a good idea.
FYI Riverside County is already planning a normal speed train from LA Union Station to Riverside to Coachella. They just basically need more funding and political support. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coachella_Valley%E2%80%93San_Gorgonio_Pass_Rail_Corridor_Service
I strongly agree with the high speed (more expensive) version; and, concur that it should connect on to Tucson. Thank you for all the fabulous presentations!
Thank you! These super thanks will go specifically to a good cause. I haven't figured out what it will be yet, but perhaps accelerating a trip out to Las Vegas once BLW starts construction and a new project update video.
There is no excuse for not building this. Should be a priority. Embarrassing that it hasn’t been. I live in PHX and many ppl go to LA once a month or once every other month. The drive is killer
I have driven that a few times myself. Driving long distance through the desert is always a challenge. It's easy to lose attention from the lack of stimuli out there. Also, big rig traffic has increased a lot, and there's nothing like going 55mph for 300 miles because rigs are continually struggling to pass each other.
Moonbeam started his idea with one between SF and LA years ago. Currently, there's only a short span somewhere near Fresno, because their bright idea was to go down the 99 corridor thru Bakersfield, and take the scenic route instead of being built closer to the coast. It's now billions over budget, and no one in NorCal thinks it will never be finished.
For a new Phoenix HSR (as well as for an Amtrak Sunset Limited & a new Phoenix - Tucson commuter) train station, might consider moving it about 5 miles east, where the Sky Harbor Airport "Sky Train" people mover has its outermost station & connects with the Valley Metro light rail.
I would go with the faster and more expensive option for a few reasons: 1) It is faster than flying while the slower option is not. This will maximize the passenger capture from the current air travel. 2) Connecting Ontario airport to LA Union Station in 16 minutes makes Ontario a viable airport option for LA proper. Nandert has an excellent video on the potential of Ontario Airport. 3) CAHSR phase 2 would share the tracks at least until Ontario. Splitting the cost between this hypothetical LA-Phoenix line and the LA-San Diego line makes both projects more cost effective. 4) There is massive seasonal travel demand between LA and Palm Springs that makes car traffic pretty rough and many wealthier travelers just fly the short distance instead. 46 minutes from downtown LA to Palm Springs would capture most of that travel and relieve the East-West freeways.
I've seen that nandert video. I agree it was quite good. That Ontario/Rancho area has a lot of future potential. To point 4, anyone that has experienced traffic through the pass on a Sunday evening, would probably greatly welcome a fast train if it were a viable option for them.
My father does a weekly commute from San Diego county to Phoenix/Sierra vista via driving or flying thru SAN/PHX. If this were built along with the CA HSR phase 2 thru Escondido, he has said he would totally be using rail as an option too
They totally just ripped up MILES of the 10 fwy to widen and build express lanes. When there was a huge trench in the center, I always thought "man - they could TOTALLY put a train in here" - just like the Metrolink line that goes down the 10 just east of LA.
Yeah, they ain't deleting lanes from the 10. Complete nonstarter. So add $5-10 billion or more to both versions to double deck the freeway. This is why Brightline starts at Rancho instead of Union Station.
@@Geotpf Double deck freeways aren't happening. Especially in California. We've seen the devastation that can occur from earthquakes and it's almost impossible to make a double deck freeway earthquake safe. But there's a cultural shift happening in America where more people are riding rails than ever and demand for rail is higher than it's ever been. Even after covid, people are tired of car-centric living and want change. If we can push this view into our DOTs, then it's possible that we stop highway and road expansions as the default transportation improvement metric, and get some actual transportation solutions that help our cities, rather than destroy them.
@@jamalgibson8139Totally agree. The Cypress Fwy and the Embarcadero Fwy were double-decker freeways. After the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989, these freeways were taken down.
This would be a great route...but I suspect most wouldn't use it for LA to Phoenix...but instead Ontario to LA...or even Coachella to LA. The reality is many HSR routes throughout the world are "hijacked" somewhat by wealthy super commuters. That to me isn't a bad thing and would help create demand/revenue. IMO a clever way to handle this would be to create a standing room car. This could could accommodate high passenger densities and lower costs. Japan sometimes offers standing room tickets on their regional trains which shows it can work. A rail corridor that can service suburban and regional transit kills two birds with one stone.
I like the higher speed option. It's cheaper to build it right the first time. If there was high speed travel options between both cities it would allow for a lot of development in between that is simply unthinkable right now because driving anywhere takes too long. Places like Palm Springs would suddenly be within a commuting distance of both downtown LA and downtown Phoenix. Which would make it a much more desirable place to live. It's not just a matter of replacing air travel. Because those smaller areas don't have any fast connections for daily work. The train would make that very different.
46 minutes is a commutable distance, but I don't know how many people would want to live in Coachella Valley full time to work in L.A. Me personally, I'd rather live by the ocean than deal with 110-115F heat all summer, and I grew up in a place that's 100-105.
Love the video, your animations and cost analysis are both top tier! For a new Phoenix rail station, I think continuing along the ROW east to 44th st and building a new station there would provide strong intermodal and transit connections, with the sky train airport connector and light rail station, it would also be important for any future rail connection to Tucson, as the ability to take the train from Tucson or its northern suburbs to fly out of PHX would be a huge draw. Plus, as you said, the existing station building in Phoenix is nothing special and most people don't frequent that area of downtown.
I will say that the reason Phoenix Union station and the area around it don't look like anything special is because its sat abandoned for nearly 30 years. The inside is actually very beautiful and is reminiscent of LA Union in its architecture. I think there are ways to rezone the area around it for better usage (seriously, its like all major development in the city just end south of Jefferson street currently) and do some serious renovating of Phoenix Union to make it a good usable station again without needing to tear the whole thing down. Of course there are some compelling arguments for building a new station in a different location like closer to the airport or the rail yard on Harrison street, but I'm just not sure I really see a need to demolish Union.
@@tinyelephant1533 I'm definitely not advocating for Union station's demolition. I haven't seen the inside myself, but it's apparently decently preserved except for the space Sprint used as a data center. I hope the froyo guy can successfully redevelop it into his event space/whatever else and spark some more development south of Jefferson, but the building just doesn't scream "only train station for a metro of 5 million people" vibes, if train travel ever took off in Phoenix it would be kinda small without much space to expand.
My only concern is your plan to demolish Union Station. I think with a bit of cleaning up it’d make a beautiful railroad museum or could be used for commuter rail. I think a better location for a new station would be near 38th and Washington. It could be integrated with a connection to the Sky Train making connections to Sky Harbor Airport far more convenient, something I believe is essential because the majority of PHX to LA flights are likely connecting passengers going to other flights. The area is mostly run down industrial uses and parking lots that could be redeveloped into a new Transit Oriented neighborhood. It wouldn’t be significantly farther from Downtown Phoenix and the Light Rail would still allow people to travel to downtown but with Phoenix being so atomized of a city I don’t think Downtown is so important that it needs the stop to be right there. Alternatively those rail yards around 15th and Harrison could be redeveloped and the surrounding area could become a transit oriented neighborhood by moving the surrounding government buildings into new more dense buildings with less parking or parking garages.
Agreed, I really don't think it is necessary to demolish the original Union Station, it genuinely is a really beautiful building especially on the inside, and could easily be spruced up, it just kinda looks the way it does now because they've let it sit abandoned for almost 30 years. I feel like bringing the HSR directly into Downtown might be a good idea to bring a lot of development back into the area, especially the area south of Jefferson. And it might be important in the future if Phoenix gets serious about commuter rail, acting as a sort of hub between the west and east valleys. But I totally see your point though, a station at Sky Harbor would be very useful, especially if it ever gets extended to Tucson. I actually know some people who will drive up to Phoenix just to take a flight out of Sky Harbor.
Connecting flights is also the case flying in and out of Santa Ana. When I flew from there back east we had to make a connection in Phoenix (though also had a choice of Dallas or Chicago). Phoenix is a nice enough airport for connections, and I'd honestly figure air travel times from SoCal to Phoenix would be closer to three hours, considering airlines recommend arriving 1-2 hours before your flight. Although, by the time you'd arrive at Phoenix on HSR, be it 45 minutes faster than the plane or 15 minutes slower, and then ride light rail and/or the airport connector to the airport, enter the airport and go through the whole check-in and security process that you avoided in SoCal, to then catch your flight north/east/south, you might as well have just flown there from SoCal. So the air travel demand that HSR could capture would be more of just SoCal to Phoenix journeys, not beyond that.
The moment I heard him propose tearing down Phoenix Union Station, I knew there was going to be defenders of that building somewhere in the comments, as there well ought to be. I didn’t expect to have to scroll this far down, though.
@@DiamondKingStudios it’d be cool to do what Fresno is doing for the CAHSR station and incorporate the historic building into the modern high speed rail station.
As a Phoenician, I could absolutely see Brightline West coming here after LV-LA is completed, it makes the most logical sense. I believe the precursor Desert Express had it in its plans as well. I’m actually working (kinda) on a proposal as well for regional/intercity services in Phoenix.
I was worried that the steep grades on I-10 (east of Indio and east of the Colorado River) would be too great to overcome. I'm glad to hear that high speed passenger trains can make the climbs (even if at reduced speed for the cheap route)
HS trains are comfortable with 3% grades. If steeper is necessary, international experience is to build the climb in 'steps', using the train's considerable momentum. Each 'step' should top out before the train loses significant speed. As the climb reduces and/or flattens, the train regains lost speed/momentum before attacking the next step. The loss of speed is such that only an observant passenger would notice. The way that BLW intends to climb Cajon Pass is not such an example. They have a slow curve at the bottom, and then will just slog it out, maintaining about freeway speed until the grade eases. They will be pushing the boundary of HS hill climbing and ought not be emulated.
I feel a Brightline west scenario would be best here cost wise. Metrolink already has rail service all the way to Redlands/San Bernardino from LA Union so starting from somewhere out in the IE should shave a significant part of the cost. Maybe even just start at The Rancho Cucamonga Metro/Brightline proposed terminal?
Dang, I happened to get curious and look at the Palm Springs Amtrak station and... boy, is it bleak. Calling it a station is far higher praise than it deserves.
This is why the video explores making a unified Coachella Valley station along the tracks at I-10/Bob Hope/Ramon Rd... probably adjacent to or made part of the existing casino.
My mind is blown at the faster route. If we just accept the cost of imminent domain and environmental impact of construction, it would be SO worth it! Can you imagine being able to do a day trip to Arizona? Dodgers/Diamondbacks games seem so much more possible
Yes, they have a very high power to weight ratio, which is why they're able to accelerate to and sustain speeds beyond 200mph. 4% is in service currently in Germany and Brightline West, as currently planned, will have several steeper grades, including one that could be 6% sustained for 2 miles.
Heya Lucid, weird request but this is a new Passenger rail project in the East Coast called the S-Line, which is becoming electrified between Richmond, VA and Raleigh, NC. Could you do a video of the S-Line + the Southeast Corridor (like continue it to Atlanta, GA from Raleigh NC) using the FRA's FY'22 corridor id program and see how it looks? Thanks Lucid!
$63 bn is totally reasonable when you consider that the combined domestic regular and shale oil extractions are stagnating/slightly declining and that foreign ones are hitting the same kind of ceiling too (source: International Energy Agency). Driving and flying will stop to be "expensive but affordable" to become straight unaffordable, so HSR is the perfect opportunity to keep a bunch of people moving fast in-between cities and limiting the costs this huge crisis will cause.
As for a curve over the river ... are you aware of the "Rendsburger Hochbrücke" (Rendsburg High Bridge)? In 1911-1913, they had to solve the problem that because of the new canal, the already existing main station was built alongside the "Nord-Ostsee Kanal" (Kiel Canal). Essentially, the tracks now make a complete 360° loop to be able to use that station, over a high bridge (68m) to allow ship traffic (cruise ships can pass under that bridge). It's a very iconic thing.
@@LucidStew It probably is, but my own personal experience of that bridge is only from inside a train. That was the line to visit my mother's parents (in Flensburg). I look at some random video featuring the view from a train window, and I almost immediately recognize it.
Hey question, it may be a lot longer but if you follow the union pacific railway through yuma and then up to phoenix you could increase speeds a lot, save on viaduct and tunnel costs because the terrain is a lot better. It also could be easy to expand to san diego but wondering what you think about that?
It could conceivably be cheaper, but it would not be faster than a 179mph average with 20% less track. I've not looked at San Diego to Coachella Valley in any detail, but I've driven between the two and don't remember it being inviting terrain for trains.
Fast route please. If it is more time competitive with flying, it will practically eliminate most of the air travel between those cities. Better air quality and reduced greenhouse gases is another significant benefit.
I am not sure if it is worth the price, but I do think that if HSR is to be feasibly implemented that it needs to be able to capture a significant portion of short-mid-haul flights in a given region.
@@LucidStewAside from practical concerns of how cost could impact people approving the project, I honestly don’t care what the upfront cost of creating useful infrastructure projects like this would be. It’s a stereotypical thing to say, but this is just a small fraction of annual spending on something like the military.
@@LucidStew Therein lies the rub. Assuming you could keep the HS option to only $76b, would something like this even be remotely economically viable? Because it's not just capital costs, but recurring costs as well. This to me, is the main roadblock to private development of HS rail. Because the feds won't conjure up $76b to make this project, but sending $500b every few weeks to foreign countries is totes ok. smdh
@@pliskenmovie Operating costs on electrified rail are pretty minimal. However, economic viability in the short term is probably a 'no'. The U.S. needs to build up a competent HSR industry and better learn from other countries how to bring costs down. Where Brightline West lands is going to make an important case study. Anywhere near 2028 or $12B and maybe we've got something. 4-5 years start to finish for 218 miles of track would be a watershed. Part of the problem with these projects is the inflation induced by the long completion horizons. Most everything else being worked on now has a completion date in the 2030s.
Interesting and cool. I did a similar exercise a while back as part of a HSR project that mimicked Amtrak's Sunset Limited. I had stops in Riverside, Coachella Valley, and Blythe. Is Blythe's population too small in your eyes to support a station there (I'm guessing similar to Barstow for BLW)?
I don't think you'd stop an express train there, but the assumption is that local or state agencies would want other stations for local services, so perhaps between Palms Springs and Phoenix you might have one in Indio, Blythe, Quartzsite, Buckeye...
OK, Very nice. Now, since they can't even finish the line from LA to San Francisco in time and under budget, what are the chances for your project to see the light of day? That's right!
actually a decent value proposition, being much cheaper than hsr. guess its hard to beat that though. was there any Corridor ID program looking at this connection?
There were a few related Corridor ID grants last year, but none specifically for an LA-PHX concept. The closest is probably Phoenix-Tucson, which is planned as something of a fast(85mph intercity avg) conventional commuter rail
@@LucidStew gotcha. what would you speculate is a reason for not including it in corridor id? - lack of demand compared to other corridors? or cost? i'd assume the latter, as from my understanding most of the corridors were focused on conventional commuter rail
@@pikeangler56 I'm not even sure if they applied for it. Probably just priority. Arizona likely sees Phoenix-Tucson as more important, and of course California has plenty on its plate already.
Great video as always! Any thoughts on whether the heat in AZ could affect how the rails are built? PHX is the hottest city in the US and likely to get hotter. I like the idea of using freeway express lanes in LA. Frankly, commuter rail lines there (like along the 405 from the Valley to the OC and the 605 from LB to SGV) would move far more people than those freeway lanes ever could.
My understanding is that if the rails are hot when they're installed or if the ambient temperature is hot during installation, it's not a big deal. In the CAHSR Phase 2 LA-SD video I looked at one of the CAHSR Authority's other possible routes along SR60, so I wanted to do I-10 in this one. Normally I would probably write off the idea of pulling out lanes for rail, but if its going to happen anywhere, California is probably the place.
High ambient temperatures does not preclude HSR. There are HS railways in Morocco and Saudi Arabia; the TGVs are not troubled in the Southern parts of France which are notably warm, and the Chinese HSRs cope with a very wide range of temps.
What is the software you are using? Looks amazing for projects I have in mind! As for the solution, the fastest is probably the best one, but realistically an hybrid would be the solution adopted: slower speeds in urban area but high speeds throughout the valleys.
2nd option is what we do in Europe😅 Costs are lower, at least in my country, Spain, the average cost per Km is from €17.7 Million to €25 Million. The most expensive and unusual cost per kilometer of the entire Spanish High Speed Rail was 48 Million per Km because it's a 7 Km (4.3 miles) tunnel in the center of Madrid suitable for 200 Km/h (124 MPH). Amazing video as always!!😀
Although I'd love to see this happen, the air taxi system is probably more likely to be built out before this line is. Did you all see that Joby has developed an air taxi, powered by hydrogen, that got over 520 miles of service?
I love the second option. I think it would be a worthwhile investment. Plus, the city of Phoneix council has really been focused on mixed-use in the downtown area. I could see the area around the station get redeveloped and connect with the main downtown area. Thanks for the video!
Flights between LA and Phoenix (just like between LA and the Bay Area) are extremely high for such a short flight. 10k seats on flights, but with cheaper seats on a train, the induced demand could be tremendously higher.
Great video and I love how you arrived at your figures. Very practical. I would go with the faster more expensive route to Phoenix. If you are going to build a fast route to compete with air travel, you need the best and fastest system, money can buy.
I would've put a station in the western suburbs of Phoenix and the eastern suburbs of LA. Backtracking would be a huge inconvenience and turn off people from those areas from taking the train.
I think I’m going to have to go with the $66 billion route, I know it’s more expensive but I think it’s worth it. Do you plan on having the new Phoenix Union Station bigger?
It was pretty huge in the video. All glass as well. After a while I realized that most of the hi-rises in Phoenix are built like bunkers, though, with little tiny windows.
@@LucidStew Also for me personally another reason why I chose the $66 billion route is because I think going through the San Jose Hills in Covina via interstate right of way is silly. Yes I get you’re trying to save money, but when it comes to building a “True” high-speed Rail line from LA to Phoenix, well you know.
How long are each of the stops along the way? Have you calculated that time into your MPH? What is your cost estimate based on? It's costing CA over $100 billion just to do the Central Valley segment from Bakersfield to Merced, which is all flat.
A typical dwell time is 2 minutes. That is figured into the speed estimates. Cost estimate is based on various real world projects and costs per mile for various construction activities. The Central Valley segment is projected to cost around $32 billion. It is 171 miles of track, and it is being built 3 times more expensive than necessary largely due to the CAHSR Authority's incompetence. It is not a good example of what high speed rail SHOULD cost.
@@LucidStew 2 minutes is pretty short. There may be families traveling together. People with luggage to retrieve. I would 5 minutes is the minimum stop time.
Any particular reason why you did not explore the LA to Coachella Valley route that is being studied by RCTC? It would pass through Riverside, and then take the Yuma Subdivision through Loma Linda to Coachella Valley. I live in Loma Linda near these tracks and appreciated these animations. The higher speed route IMO would not be politically feasible, especially involving removing parks, golf courses, and homes.
Fullerton to Colton via Santa Ana Canyon and Riverside wouldn't be the easiest row to hoe at a geometry that could support high speed. The damage on this one is extremely light. There are means for remediation in most cases, except for San Timoteo Canyon, which admittedly could be the nail in the coffin for the idea. Either that or people would need to be ok with another $15 billion for a tunnel into San G Pass.
Presently, LA Union is an end-of-the-line terminal, with no through-running tracks. Your video is a good overview of why the (rational) people at Brightline are not going to connect to LAU, and will instead only connect at Rancho Cucamonga. If CAHSR wants to run south to San Diego, it will likely have spend huge $$$ to build a flyover south out of LAU.
Metro is working on through-running, however, the way CAHSR has it planned, it will only use tracks to the south into Orange County to get to Anaheim. One of the CAHSR Phase 2 to San Diego alternatives is similar to the presented alignment through Ontario, but then turns south at Interstate 15. I've previously made a video about it, however in that one I followed another alternative along SR60 between L.A. and Baldwin Park. th-cam.com/video/2G8uwwhMzQc/w-d-xo.html
125 mph/200 km/h inter-city express trains should become the new national standard in America for all long-distance priority lines... With an overnight train at that speed you could cover half the nation while you sleep!
@@Gnefitisis About the only project I'm all-in on so far is Atlanta-Charlotte. I see the situation in California where we waited too long and now its much more expensive and difficult. The southeast is growing rapidly and is poised to avoid those problems if they seize the opportunity.
Hey Lucid. I have a interesting route. Not a fancy high speed one but a much more feasible. Connecting Cleveland and Pittsburgh. But instead of taking the route over Alliance and the now infamous East Palestine, we stop at the university town of Youngstown. All we need is to reestablish the connection between the Cleveland Line and the New Castle Subdivision in Ravenna. With a very small investment, the train could beat the car and with a little more, travel times of under 2 hours would be possible
Great video as always!! For me, the gap between Coachella and Phoenix is a bit too long--90-120 minutes with no stations might be a bit too long. Comparing it to the Tohoku Shinkansen, which is a similar length and also connects sparsely populated regions, that line has lots of exurban stations between the major cities (even as small as 13,000 people in Iwate Town). Luckily, this route is so sparse that there's not even many options, but even if it adds 5-10 minutes to the travel time, I think stops in Blythe and at least one suburban Phoenix stop (I'm not familiar enough to say where) would be an overall benefit. They may not be particularly walkable NOW, but a new connection would spur a lot of new transit-oriented development.
Because when they were built, there were multiple private railroads with passenger service on different lines and routes that would use the main station in the biggest city in the area. So, it united the different railroads, hence Union Station.
Hey Stew, will the trains have to do slow orders for hot rails? I know temps in Palm Springs and Phoenix easily get up to 120°. The freight trains out of Barstow going east have to slow down.
There's HSR in Saudi Arabia, so shouldn't be a problem in the deserts here. The main way heat is dealt with is by tying rails down really tightly and installing during high temperature times so that you have less thermal expansion on hot days. Freight is less concerned about things like that since they don't intend to go anywhere near as fast to begin with and the trains tend to be heavier by orders of magnitude.
@@LucidStew Gotcha, I forgot about the weight factor. BTW my daily commute takes me along the Brightline west route from Victorville to the Yermo area where I exit the 15 fwy. Can't for construction to begin.
Rails are 'adjusted' to ensure the correct amount of steel is present for the rail temperature, over a given length of rail, by cutting out a section of rail and then stretching it (pulling it with hydraulic rail tensors) and then welding the join, (the rail will now (generally) be in tension. This way the rail doesn't go into compression until much higher rail temps. The trick is to not take too much steel out as that may cause a broken rail in cold temps. It is a mature technology practiced throughout the world.
If I remember correctly, maglev is about 30% more expensive than very high speed rail(faster option in the video), but its also more expensive to operate. Realistically it might save 20 minutes unless you have a lot more tunnelling, which would be more than a 30% cost increase. Most of these things are matters of diminishing returns. In this case, $25 billion gets you an hour. An extra $20 billion gets you 20 mins.
All of the viaducts needed on the I-10 in the dessert region isn’t necessary. It’s way cheaper just to realign the highway so the curves aren’t tight. For example 14:10
@@LucidStew and it’s only one of the directions of the highway you need to move the others one doesn’t matter, as it’s only of of the directions that block for curve. So in all desert regions you should be able to do 220mph (if the length of the section allows it) even in the cheapest scenario
Both are worth it and probably should have been built already... Personally I'm for a more Brightline-like plan relying on private business and value engineering because it's more likely to get shovels in the ground now and more likely to help build a Southwestern USA Regional HSR network that spans from Los Angeles to San Francisco, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas and hopefully one day to Salt Lake City and Denver!
It seems somewhat worthwhile. However, if feasible I'd do two stops in the PHX valley. One probably in PHX and one somewhere further east. Though, you could make sure you got a connection from the PHX light rail. There's just a lot of ppl that live quite a bit east of PHX proper.
@lucidstew they are already talking about Phionix to Tucson, in a new track build out, maybe do a city pair, and talk about Tucsons Newer Small light rail SunTram
I can't wait for this to become a reality! I hope it helps my hometown of Blythe, maybe it'll transform into a bedroom city for LA or Phoenix workers like how Fresno anticipates the economic boost from CA HSR. Lots of cheap land compared with CA HSR. Hope we don't confront lots of red tape on a LA - PHX line. The traffic on I 10 keeps getting scarier each year.
I like the $63 Billion route, if you are going competitive with the airlines, don't build cheap as it won't attract a lot of people. In Europe HSR doesn't go slow and people like faster rail over slower rail, especially over airplanes that have been prime targets for Terrorists in the past... Nice video Stew.
I'm curious if you considered continuing to Tucson with this alignment. Tucson to Phoenix is constantly discussed as a decent rail opportunity and adding 1 million possible passengers and having the chance to kill a nasty drive would be great.
Since its a City Pair video, no. The plans for Phoenix-Tucson also kind of put the kibosh on a wholly original route on my part, but I'll probably do a video at some point about how the Phoenix-Tucson concept might be increased from merely fast to high speed.
This would be a great idea The cost is a bit crazy, but I'm not a civil engineer so what do I know.LoL But ever all a great idea hopefully it'll be implemented soon.
In my opinion we need to consult with European countries like Spain to figure out how to bring costs down. Spain in particular is able to build HSR systems relatively cheaply.
I assume LA Union Station as the 13th busiest station in the USA includes both commuter and intercity rail passengers. If it's just Amtrak, that makes Albany-Renseelaer busier at number 9 in the Amtrak system. You may not be impressed by Phoenix's Union Station, but it is there mission-style station, and if no one cared for it, it be gone by now I would think. I think incorporating it I to a new mixed-used HSR station complex would be very nice. As for the two route, I would take bits from both for a $45B project.
To expand slightly on the given answer. Early on, different railroads would each build their own passenger station. This causes obvious problems, some of which are solved by multiple entities consolidating into a single location.
A lot of the overall price is getting from L.A. to San Gorgonio Pass, so you do have some potential complications there. If you need to run viaduct on I-10 through Covina, and if you need to tunnel under San Timoteo Canyon, that could make things significantly more expensive.
On the comparison to air travel at 26:14 I neglected Southwest flights, which is a pretty big oversight. That's an additional ~56 flights and ~8,000 seats daily, so limited-stop, non-car travel demand between the two areas is roughly 50-80% higher than supposed in the video.
66 billion to connect two of the top 5 largest cities in the country is actually fairly reasonable by American standards. Not to mention the higher speed route east of LA could be used by CAHSR and Brightline west
Great point! And it’d be the most logical first leg connecting West Coast HSR networks to those in the East.
Following the I-10 corridor, it would go onwards through Tucson, Las Cruces, El Paso, and finally San Antonio/Austin where it’d connect to the Dallas-Houston-San Antonio HSR triangle & beyond. It would have a great opportunity to show-off its speed on the notoriously vast plains of Eastern Texas.
Thinking more internationally, San Antonio offers the best HSR departure point for an eventual line through Nuevo León on Mexico’s East Coast towards Mexico City.
@@LeonSKennedy7777 honestly I don't think transcontinental high speed rail is ever going to be viable, at least not for a long time. El Paso -- San Ant. is ridiculously far and they aren't even very big cities. Pheonix --El Paso also has questionable demand for HSR.
It doesn't really make much sense to connect our hypothetical HSR hubs together for the sake of connecting them together. The only ones that make sense are NE to SE and NE to Midwest. Because they actually have big cities close to each other.
The unwashed masses will shit on it and ruin the experience. We need more civilized society before we invest in it. People suck.
@@romanrat5613yeah, it only makes sense if costs of energy or environmental conditions radically shift to the point that air travel is no longer viable.
That’s the price of 500 Airbus A321s.
We don't deserve you. You do such good work and you adding animation and this 3d visual has really set you apart and make me realize that so many projects are doable if we just spend the money and we'd see the benefits for all long and short term. Keep up the great work.
Trying to actually build these lines in 3d space helps a lot in realizing if they are possible. It really has changed my perspective. I would say few things are impossible. The question really is if they're worth the expense. Thank you, btw!
@@LucidStew I think some Tweeks here and there for some of them might be needed but overall they're all really good. Thought out and practically. Been a long time viewer so it's been nice to see you evolve to were you are now
Watching this while on a train!
The Amtrak Wolverine in a new Venture car, to be precise!
Nice. I'm jealous.
Did you thank the American taxpayers? It wouldn't exist without them
@michaelshepherd733 Taxpayer funded just like the highways and airports.
OMG OMG Lucid Stew! I live in Palm Springs and this would be a GAME CHANGER!!! I soooo wish we had a high-speed rail link to LA. I go so often! Such a good idea.
Yeah, but its 45mins. That's kind of a long time.
@@LucidStew ? It takes 2.5 hours to drive to WeHo…
FYI Riverside County is already planning a normal speed train from LA Union Station to Riverside to Coachella. They just basically need more funding and political support.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coachella_Valley%E2%80%93San_Gorgonio_Pass_Rail_Corridor_Service
I strongly agree with the high speed (more expensive) version; and, concur that it should connect on to Tucson. Thank you for all the fabulous presentations!
68 billion for the fast version isn't too bad imo. Would love to see potential expansion to Tucson as well
Exactly. I’m curious about a southern extension to Tucson and a northern extension to Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon.
The $63 bn will be a worthwhile investment.
Coming from a Phoenix resident , we need this!
Coming from an Oregon resident that used to live in SoCal and traveled to Phoenix, you need this.
Eternally grateful for these amazing videos, which show us that a better world *is* possible.
Thank you! These super thanks will go specifically to a good cause. I haven't figured out what it will be yet, but perhaps accelerating a trip out to Las Vegas once BLW starts construction and a new project update video.
As someone who drives this route all the time, this is a great idea that seems doable.
There is no excuse for not building this. Should be a priority. Embarrassing that it hasn’t been. I live in PHX and many ppl go to LA once a month or once every other month. The drive is killer
I have driven that a few times myself. Driving long distance through the desert is always a challenge. It's easy to lose attention from the lack of stimuli out there. Also, big rig traffic has increased a lot, and there's nothing like going 55mph for 300 miles because rigs are continually struggling to pass each other.
Moonbeam started his idea with one between SF and LA years ago. Currently, there's only a short span somewhere near Fresno, because their bright idea was to go down the 99 corridor thru Bakersfield, and take the scenic route instead of being built closer to the coast. It's now billions over budget, and no one in NorCal thinks it will never be finished.
We should have had high speed rail connecting LA and Phoenix with a stop in Palm Springs 10 years ago.
Agreed. Especially with both L.A. and Phoenix in the TOP FIVE largest U.S. cities!
who pay for it? for such a money pit ?
Fantastic, detailed research. I hope that those who have the power to make this happen are watching...
@20:25 When Stew just starts laughing like mad man about destroying so many properties just had me in stiches
Go big or go home!
For a new Phoenix HSR (as well as for an Amtrak Sunset Limited & a new Phoenix - Tucson commuter) train station, might consider moving it about 5 miles east, where the Sky Harbor Airport "Sky Train" people mover has its outermost station & connects with the Valley Metro light rail.
I would go with the faster and more expensive option for a few reasons:
1) It is faster than flying while the slower option is not. This will maximize the passenger capture from the current air travel.
2) Connecting Ontario airport to LA Union Station in 16 minutes makes Ontario a viable airport option for LA proper. Nandert has an excellent video on the potential of Ontario Airport.
3) CAHSR phase 2 would share the tracks at least until Ontario. Splitting the cost between this hypothetical LA-Phoenix line and the LA-San Diego line makes both projects more cost effective.
4) There is massive seasonal travel demand between LA and Palm Springs that makes car traffic pretty rough and many wealthier travelers just fly the short distance instead. 46 minutes from downtown LA to Palm Springs would capture most of that travel and relieve the East-West freeways.
I've seen that nandert video. I agree it was quite good. That Ontario/Rancho area has a lot of future potential.
To point 4, anyone that has experienced traffic through the pass on a Sunday evening, would probably greatly welcome a fast train if it were a viable option for them.
For number 1, even if it's a little slower than fly8ng as long as it's much cheaper for a ticket I'd still take the train
This should happen right at the same time as CAHSR Phase 2 - if not even earlier
LA to San Fran, San Diego/Tjuana, Vegas and Phx. as a major rail hub to rival or outshine Chicago and New York City
My father does a weekly commute from San Diego county to Phoenix/Sierra vista via driving or flying thru SAN/PHX. If this were built along with the CA HSR phase 2 thru Escondido, he has said he would totally be using rail as an option too
They totally just ripped up MILES of the 10 fwy to widen and build express lanes. When there was a huge trench in the center, I always thought "man - they could TOTALLY put a train in here" - just like the Metrolink line that goes down the 10 just east of LA.
Yeah, they ain't deleting lanes from the 10. Complete nonstarter. So add $5-10 billion or more to both versions to double deck the freeway. This is why Brightline starts at Rancho instead of Union Station.
@@Geotpf It's a non starter today, but could become the reality in 20-30 years.
@@jamalgibson8139If this becomes a reality, they will spend the extra billions to double deck the freeway. They simply will not remove lanes, period.
@@Geotpf Double deck freeways aren't happening. Especially in California. We've seen the devastation that can occur from earthquakes and it's almost impossible to make a double deck freeway earthquake safe.
But there's a cultural shift happening in America where more people are riding rails than ever and demand for rail is higher than it's ever been. Even after covid, people are tired of car-centric living and want change.
If we can push this view into our DOTs, then it's possible that we stop highway and road expansions as the default transportation improvement metric, and get some actual transportation solutions that help our cities, rather than destroy them.
@@jamalgibson8139Totally agree. The Cypress Fwy and the Embarcadero Fwy were double-decker freeways. After the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989, these freeways were taken down.
That phoenix line can connect to Tucson. So theres opportunity here to have a commuter option run along these lines too.
This would be a great route...but I suspect most wouldn't use it for LA to Phoenix...but instead Ontario to LA...or even Coachella to LA. The reality is many HSR routes throughout the world are "hijacked" somewhat by wealthy super commuters. That to me isn't a bad thing and would help create demand/revenue. IMO a clever way to handle this would be to create a standing room car. This could could accommodate high passenger densities and lower costs. Japan sometimes offers standing room tickets on their regional trains which shows it can work. A rail corridor that can service suburban and regional transit kills two birds with one stone.
Honestly Stew, I like the HSR from Los Angeles, Phoenix and Tuscon. As Phoenix and Tuscon need need a larger city pair to give it more business!
Thanks!
Thank you so much for the support!
I like the higher speed option. It's cheaper to build it right the first time. If there was high speed travel options between both cities it would allow for a lot of development in between that is simply unthinkable right now because driving anywhere takes too long. Places like Palm Springs would suddenly be within a commuting distance of both downtown LA and downtown Phoenix. Which would make it a much more desirable place to live. It's not just a matter of replacing air travel. Because those smaller areas don't have any fast connections for daily work. The train would make that very different.
46 minutes is a commutable distance, but I don't know how many people would want to live in Coachella Valley full time to work in L.A. Me personally, I'd rather live by the ocean than deal with 110-115F heat all summer, and I grew up in a place that's 100-105.
Love the video, your animations and cost analysis are both top tier! For a new Phoenix rail station, I think continuing along the ROW east to 44th st and building a new station there would provide strong intermodal and transit connections, with the sky train airport connector and light rail station, it would also be important for any future rail connection to Tucson, as the ability to take the train from Tucson or its northern suburbs to fly out of PHX would be a huge draw. Plus, as you said, the existing station building in Phoenix is nothing special and most people don't frequent that area of downtown.
I will say that the reason Phoenix Union station and the area around it don't look like anything special is because its sat abandoned for nearly 30 years. The inside is actually very beautiful and is reminiscent of LA Union in its architecture. I think there are ways to rezone the area around it for better usage (seriously, its like all major development in the city just end south of Jefferson street currently) and do some serious renovating of Phoenix Union to make it a good usable station again without needing to tear the whole thing down. Of course there are some compelling arguments for building a new station in a different location like closer to the airport or the rail yard on Harrison street, but I'm just not sure I really see a need to demolish Union.
@@tinyelephant1533 I'm definitely not advocating for Union station's demolition. I haven't seen the inside myself, but it's apparently decently preserved except for the space Sprint used as a data center. I hope the froyo guy can successfully redevelop it into his event space/whatever else and spark some more development south of Jefferson, but the building just doesn't scream "only train station for a metro of 5 million people" vibes, if train travel ever took off in Phoenix it would be kinda small without much space to expand.
OBSOLETELY FASCINATING HOW U ROUTED THIS, I'M SOLD!!!
My parents are driving from LA to Phoenix next month. Having a train would be pretty nice.
My only concern is your plan to demolish Union Station. I think with a bit of cleaning up it’d make a beautiful railroad museum or could be used for commuter rail.
I think a better location for a new station would be near 38th and Washington. It could be integrated with a connection to the Sky Train making connections to Sky Harbor Airport far more convenient, something I believe is essential because the majority of PHX to LA flights are likely connecting passengers going to other flights. The area is mostly run down industrial uses and parking lots that could be redeveloped into a new Transit Oriented neighborhood. It wouldn’t be significantly farther from Downtown Phoenix and the Light Rail would still allow people to travel to downtown but with Phoenix being so atomized of a city I don’t think Downtown is so important that it needs the stop to be right there.
Alternatively those rail yards around 15th and Harrison could be redeveloped and the surrounding area could become a transit oriented neighborhood by moving the surrounding government buildings into new more dense buildings with less parking or parking garages.
Agreed, I really don't think it is necessary to demolish the original Union Station, it genuinely is a really beautiful building especially on the inside, and could easily be spruced up, it just kinda looks the way it does now because they've let it sit abandoned for almost 30 years.
I feel like bringing the HSR directly into Downtown might be a good idea to bring a lot of development back into the area, especially the area south of Jefferson. And it might be important in the future if Phoenix gets serious about commuter rail, acting as a sort of hub between the west and east valleys. But I totally see your point though, a station at Sky Harbor would be very useful, especially if it ever gets extended to Tucson. I actually know some people who will drive up to Phoenix just to take a flight out of Sky Harbor.
Connecting flights is also the case flying in and out of Santa Ana. When I flew from there back east we had to make a connection in Phoenix (though also had a choice of Dallas or Chicago). Phoenix is a nice enough airport for connections, and I'd honestly figure air travel times from SoCal to Phoenix would be closer to three hours, considering airlines recommend arriving 1-2 hours before your flight.
Although, by the time you'd arrive at Phoenix on HSR, be it 45 minutes faster than the plane or 15 minutes slower, and then ride light rail and/or the airport connector to the airport, enter the airport and go through the whole check-in and security process that you avoided in SoCal, to then catch your flight north/east/south, you might as well have just flown there from SoCal. So the air travel demand that HSR could capture would be more of just SoCal to Phoenix journeys, not beyond that.
The moment I heard him propose tearing down Phoenix Union Station, I knew there was going to be defenders of that building somewhere in the comments, as there well ought to be.
I didn’t expect to have to scroll this far down, though.
@@DiamondKingStudios it’d be cool to do what Fresno is doing for the CAHSR station and incorporate the historic building into the modern high speed rail station.
As a Phoenician, I could absolutely see Brightline West coming here after LV-LA is completed, it makes the most logical sense. I believe the precursor Desert Express had it in its plans as well. I’m actually working (kinda) on a proposal as well for regional/intercity services in Phoenix.
I was worried that the steep grades on I-10 (east of Indio and east of the Colorado River) would be too great to overcome. I'm glad to hear that high speed passenger trains can make the climbs (even if at reduced speed for the cheap route)
HS trains are comfortable with 3% grades. If steeper is necessary, international experience is to build the climb in 'steps', using the train's considerable momentum. Each 'step' should top out before the train loses significant speed. As the climb reduces and/or flattens, the train regains lost speed/momentum before attacking the next step. The loss of speed is such that only an observant passenger would notice. The way that BLW intends to climb Cajon Pass is not such an example. They have a slow curve at the bottom, and then will just slog it out, maintaining about freeway speed until the grade eases. They will be pushing the boundary of HS hill climbing and ought not be emulated.
I feel a Brightline west scenario would be best here cost wise. Metrolink already has rail service all the way to Redlands/San Bernardino from LA Union so starting from somewhere out in the IE should shave a significant part of the cost. Maybe even just start at The Rancho Cucamonga Metro/Brightline proposed terminal?
Yes, of course the fast version is worth it!
The little mushroom cloud over the destroyed buildings never stops being funny.
Dang, I happened to get curious and look at the Palm Springs Amtrak station and... boy, is it bleak. Calling it a station is far higher praise than it deserves.
It's because the existing rail tracks are many miles north of Palm Springs proper.
This is why the video explores making a unified Coachella Valley station along the tracks at I-10/Bob Hope/Ramon Rd... probably adjacent to or made part of the existing casino.
My mind is blown at the faster route. If we just accept the cost of imminent domain and environmental impact of construction, it would be SO worth it! Can you imagine being able to do a day trip to Arizona? Dodgers/Diamondbacks games seem so much more possible
can High Speed rail go up steep grades? How to prevent wheel slip on grades? Trains struggle over 4 or 5% on normal tracks.
Yes, they have a very high power to weight ratio, which is why they're able to accelerate to and sustain speeds beyond 200mph. 4% is in service currently in Germany and Brightline West, as currently planned, will have several steeper grades, including one that could be 6% sustained for 2 miles.
Heya Lucid, weird request but this is a new Passenger rail project in the East Coast called the S-Line, which is becoming electrified between Richmond, VA and Raleigh, NC. Could you do a video of the S-Line + the Southeast Corridor (like continue it to Atlanta, GA from Raleigh NC) using the FRA's FY'22 corridor id program and see how it looks?
Thanks Lucid!
They’re electrifying the S Line? Thought they were just rebuilding it
You sure they are electrifying it and are not just gonna use diesel-electric?
Excellent analysis.
Wow! That is some serious analysis and 3d rendering. Thank you!
How do you render the train and tracks using google maps?
Unreal Engine 5 has a few different plug-ins that are able to utilize Google Maps data.
@@LucidStew thank you!
5:20 lol
well, they are!
$63 bn is totally reasonable when you consider that the combined domestic regular and shale oil extractions are stagnating/slightly declining and that foreign ones are hitting the same kind of ceiling too (source: International Energy Agency). Driving and flying will stop to be "expensive but affordable" to become straight unaffordable, so HSR is the perfect opportunity to keep a bunch of people moving fast in-between cities and limiting the costs this huge crisis will cause.
As for a curve over the river ... are you aware of the "Rendsburger Hochbrücke" (Rendsburg High Bridge)? In 1911-1913, they had to solve the problem that because of the new canal, the already existing main station was built alongside the "Nord-Ostsee Kanal" (Kiel Canal). Essentially, the tracks now make a complete 360° loop to be able to use that station, over a high bridge (68m) to allow ship traffic (cruise ships can pass under that bridge). It's a very iconic thing.
I checked it out. That suspended ferry is pretty cool. Almost steampunk before it was invented as a genre.
@@LucidStew It probably is, but my own personal experience of that bridge is only from inside a train. That was the line to visit my mother's parents (in Flensburg). I look at some random video featuring the view from a train window, and I almost immediately recognize it.
CHSRA should have a link from the LA Union Station to LAX
I would assume its near impossible. The green line + the people mover will be open soon.
Phoenix will surely need this eventually
How do you build these 3d visuals? Looks amazing. Love the work that goes into the videos
Thanks! I use Unreal Engine 5.
Hey question, it may be a lot longer but if you follow the union pacific railway through yuma and then up to phoenix you could increase speeds a lot, save on viaduct and tunnel costs because the terrain is a lot better. It also could be easy to expand to san diego but wondering what you think about that?
It could conceivably be cheaper, but it would not be faster than a 179mph average with 20% less track. I've not looked at San Diego to Coachella Valley in any detail, but I've driven between the two and don't remember it being inviting terrain for trains.
@@LucidStew omg thanks for the reply, that makes sense, might as well spend the money and do it faster anyways i guess!
Fast route please. If it is more time competitive with flying, it will practically eliminate most of the air travel between those cities. Better air quality and reduced greenhouse gases is another significant benefit.
I am not sure if it is worth the price, but I do think that if HSR is to be feasibly implemented that it needs to be able to capture a significant portion of short-mid-haul flights in a given region.
@@LucidStewAside from practical concerns of how cost could impact people approving the project, I honestly don’t care what the upfront cost of creating useful infrastructure projects like this would be. It’s a stereotypical thing to say, but this is just a small fraction of annual spending on something like the military.
@@LucidStew Therein lies the rub. Assuming you could keep the HS option to only $76b, would something like this even be remotely economically viable? Because it's not just capital costs, but recurring costs as well. This to me, is the main roadblock to private development of HS rail. Because the feds won't conjure up $76b to make this project, but sending $500b every few weeks to foreign countries is totes ok. smdh
@@pliskenmovie Operating costs on electrified rail are pretty minimal. However, economic viability in the short term is probably a 'no'. The U.S. needs to build up a competent HSR industry and better learn from other countries how to bring costs down. Where Brightline West lands is going to make an important case study. Anywhere near 2028 or $12B and maybe we've got something. 4-5 years start to finish for 218 miles of track would be a watershed. Part of the problem with these projects is the inflation induced by the long completion horizons. Most everything else being worked on now has a completion date in the 2030s.
Interesting and cool. I did a similar exercise a while back as part of a HSR project that mimicked Amtrak's Sunset Limited. I had stops in Riverside, Coachella Valley, and Blythe. Is Blythe's population too small in your eyes to support a station there (I'm guessing similar to Barstow for BLW)?
I don't think you'd stop an express train there, but the assumption is that local or state agencies would want other stations for local services, so perhaps between Palms Springs and Phoenix you might have one in Indio, Blythe, Quartzsite, Buckeye...
OK, Very nice. Now, since they can't even finish the line from LA to San Francisco in time and under budget, what are the chances for your project to see the light of day? That's right!
Have some patience. Things may change in 100 years or so.
Well, since I won't be around in one hundred years...................!
@@Christiane069 Technology is advancing rapidly. Convergence is near. Then we'll all live forever, together as one.
@@LucidStewOne of us... One of us...
@@JenniferBristol Unity after death, unity forever.
actually a decent value proposition, being much cheaper than hsr. guess its hard to beat that though. was there any Corridor ID program looking at this connection?
There were a few related Corridor ID grants last year, but none specifically for an LA-PHX concept. The closest is probably Phoenix-Tucson, which is planned as something of a fast(85mph intercity avg) conventional commuter rail
@@LucidStew gotcha. what would you speculate is a reason for not including it in corridor id? - lack of demand compared to other corridors? or cost? i'd assume the latter, as from my understanding most of the corridors were focused on conventional commuter rail
@@pikeangler56 I'm not even sure if they applied for it. Probably just priority. Arizona likely sees Phoenix-Tucson as more important, and of course California has plenty on its plate already.
I love these videos!!
...and they love you back
Great video as always!
Any thoughts on whether the heat in AZ could affect how the rails are built? PHX is the hottest city in the US and likely to get hotter.
I like the idea of using freeway express lanes in LA. Frankly, commuter rail lines there (like along the 405 from the Valley to the OC and the 605 from LB to SGV) would move far more people than those freeway lanes ever could.
There are also cities in California on the CAHSR route that can at times reach similar temperatures as Phoenix.
@@barryrobbins7694 yeah I guess you're right. I should've known that since I was born and raised in one of them: beautiful downtown Fresno.
My understanding is that if the rails are hot when they're installed or if the ambient temperature is hot during installation, it's not a big deal. In the CAHSR Phase 2 LA-SD video I looked at one of the CAHSR Authority's other possible routes along SR60, so I wanted to do I-10 in this one. Normally I would probably write off the idea of pulling out lanes for rail, but if its going to happen anywhere, California is probably the place.
High ambient temperatures does not preclude HSR. There are HS railways in Morocco and Saudi Arabia; the TGVs are not troubled in the Southern parts of France which are notably warm, and the Chinese HSRs cope with a very wide range of temps.
How about one from LA to new york through major cities inbetween like dallas,chicago,pheonix,las vegas,and kansas city,2 routes,north and south
What is the software you are using? Looks amazing for projects I have in mind!
As for the solution, the fastest is probably the best one, but realistically an hybrid would be the solution adopted: slower speeds in urban area but high speeds throughout the valleys.
Unreal Engine 5
Welcome back.
This was my favorite one so far
High Speed Rail 🚈 😎 in The United States 🇺🇸, (ALL) across the Country is here, folks.
interesting case study. I like it.
2nd option is what we do in Europe😅
Costs are lower, at least in my country, Spain, the average cost per Km is from €17.7 Million to €25 Million.
The most expensive and unusual cost per kilometer of the entire Spanish High Speed Rail was 48 Million per Km because it's a 7 Km (4.3 miles) tunnel in the center of Madrid suitable for 200 Km/h (124 MPH).
Amazing video as always!!😀
Although I'd love to see this happen, the air taxi system is probably more likely to be built out before this line is. Did you all see that Joby has developed an air taxi, powered by hydrogen, that got over 520 miles of service?
Had not yet seen that, but I have a minor obsession with Joby's electric air taxis. so quiet!
I love the second option. I think it would be a worthwhile investment. Plus, the city of Phoneix council has really been focused on mixed-use in the downtown area. I could see the area around the station get redeveloped and connect with the main downtown area. Thanks for the video!
Flights between LA and Phoenix (just like between LA and the Bay Area) are extremely high for such a short flight. 10k seats on flights, but with cheaper seats on a train, the induced demand could be tremendously higher.
This would be amazing also the 66 billion would definitely be worth it
Fantastic vid
good time for me to browse youtube looking for new transit content!
Great video and I love how you arrived at your figures. Very practical. I would go with the faster more expensive route to Phoenix. If you are going to build a fast route to compete with air travel, you need the best and fastest system, money can buy.
I would've put a station in the western suburbs of Phoenix and the eastern suburbs of LA. Backtracking would be a huge inconvenience and turn off people from those areas from taking the train.
How did you plot the travel sheds at 5:01?
that's an app called TravelTime
I think I’m going to have to go with the $66 billion route, I know it’s more expensive but I think it’s worth it. Do you plan on having the new Phoenix Union Station bigger?
It was pretty huge in the video. All glass as well. After a while I realized that most of the hi-rises in Phoenix are built like bunkers, though, with little tiny windows.
@@LucidStew Also for me personally another reason why I chose the $66 billion route is because I think going through the San Jose Hills in Covina via interstate right of way is silly. Yes I get you’re trying to save money, but when it comes to building a “True” high-speed Rail line from LA to Phoenix, well you know.
How long are each of the stops along the way? Have you calculated that time into your MPH? What is your cost estimate based on? It's costing CA over $100 billion just to do the Central Valley segment from Bakersfield to Merced, which is all flat.
A typical dwell time is 2 minutes. That is figured into the speed estimates. Cost estimate is based on various real world projects and costs per mile for various construction activities. The Central Valley segment is projected to cost around $32 billion. It is 171 miles of track, and it is being built 3 times more expensive than necessary largely due to the CAHSR Authority's incompetence. It is not a good example of what high speed rail SHOULD cost.
@@LucidStew 2 minutes is pretty short. There may be families traveling together. People with luggage to retrieve. I would 5 minutes is the minimum stop time.
@@jonathanrichter4256 2 minutes is not an unusual dwell time for an intercity train.
Any particular reason why you did not explore the LA to Coachella Valley route that is being studied by RCTC? It would pass through Riverside, and then take the Yuma Subdivision through Loma Linda to Coachella Valley. I live in Loma Linda near these tracks and appreciated these animations. The higher speed route IMO would not be politically feasible, especially involving removing parks, golf courses, and homes.
Fullerton to Colton via Santa Ana Canyon and Riverside wouldn't be the easiest row to hoe at a geometry that could support high speed.
The damage on this one is extremely light. There are means for remediation in most cases, except for San Timoteo Canyon, which admittedly could be the nail in the coffin for the idea. Either that or people would need to be ok with another $15 billion for a tunnel into San G Pass.
2 hrs to one of the fastest growing cities in the nation would be killer, hopefully this happens soon :)
It's 375 miles, not going to happen in 2 hours.
Presently, LA Union is an end-of-the-line terminal, with no through-running tracks. Your video is a good overview of why the (rational) people at Brightline are not going to connect to LAU, and will instead only connect at Rancho Cucamonga. If CAHSR wants to run south to San Diego, it will likely have spend huge $$$ to build a flyover south out of LAU.
Metro is working on through-running, however, the way CAHSR has it planned, it will only use tracks to the south into Orange County to get to Anaheim. One of the CAHSR Phase 2 to San Diego alternatives is similar to the presented alignment through Ontario, but then turns south at Interstate 15. I've previously made a video about it, however in that one I followed another alternative along SR60 between L.A. and Baldwin Park. th-cam.com/video/2G8uwwhMzQc/w-d-xo.html
125 mph/200 km/h inter-city express trains should become the new national standard in America for all long-distance priority lines... With an overnight train at that speed you could cover half the nation while you sleep!
How about high speed rail from Los Angeles to San Fransisco
They should try building that
hey this is a cool idea i wonder if anyone has done research on it
this is cheaper. :)
@LucidStew Honesty, I still can't believe you don't work in advocacy or in some consulting firm!
So far, it's a bust. There's only one section built somewhere near Fresno, and that's all. It was a pipedream that's already billions over budget.
@@Gnefitisis About the only project I'm all-in on so far is Atlanta-Charlotte. I see the situation in California where we waited too long and now its much more expensive and difficult. The southeast is growing rapidly and is poised to avoid those problems if they seize the opportunity.
Hey Lucid. I have a interesting route. Not a fancy high speed one but a much more feasible. Connecting Cleveland and Pittsburgh. But instead of taking the route over Alliance and the now infamous East Palestine, we stop at the university town of Youngstown. All we need is to reestablish the connection between the Cleveland Line and the New Castle Subdivision in Ravenna. With a very small investment, the train could beat the car and with a little more, travel times of under 2 hours would be possible
I actually looked at that at a very high level for the Chicago Hub Network video a while back.
One can dream...
Great video as always!!
For me, the gap between Coachella and Phoenix is a bit too long--90-120 minutes with no stations might be a bit too long. Comparing it to the Tohoku Shinkansen, which is a similar length and also connects sparsely populated regions, that line has lots of exurban stations between the major cities (even as small as 13,000 people in Iwate Town). Luckily, this route is so sparse that there's not even many options, but even if it adds 5-10 minutes to the travel time, I think stops in Blythe and at least one suburban Phoenix stop (I'm not familiar enough to say where) would be an overall benefit. They may not be particularly walkable NOW, but a new connection would spur a lot of new transit-oriented development.
How do you make the animations?
The faster route is a no brainer.
Question of a German here. Why are your Central/Main stations called Union Station so often?
Because when they were built, there were multiple private railroads with passenger service on different lines and routes that would use the main station in the biggest city in the area. So, it united the different railroads, hence Union Station.
Hey Stew, will the trains have to do slow orders for hot rails? I know temps in Palm Springs and Phoenix easily get up to 120°. The freight trains out of Barstow going east have to slow down.
There's HSR in Saudi Arabia, so shouldn't be a problem in the deserts here. The main way heat is dealt with is by tying rails down really tightly and installing during high temperature times so that you have less thermal expansion on hot days. Freight is less concerned about things like that since they don't intend to go anywhere near as fast to begin with and the trains tend to be heavier by orders of magnitude.
@@LucidStew Gotcha, I forgot about the weight factor. BTW my daily commute takes me along the Brightline west route from Victorville to the Yermo area where I exit the 15 fwy. Can't for construction to begin.
@@amsoiltek nice. you have a front row daily.
Rails are 'adjusted' to ensure the correct amount of steel is present for the rail temperature, over a given length of rail, by cutting out a section of rail and then stretching it (pulling it with hydraulic rail tensors) and then welding the join, (the rail will now (generally) be in tension. This way the rail doesn't go into compression until much higher rail temps. The trick is to not take too much steel out as that may cause a broken rail in cold temps. It is a mature technology practiced throughout the world.
how much more expensive is maglev? just asking because it seems like this route could benefit from very high speeds
If I remember correctly, maglev is about 30% more expensive than very high speed rail(faster option in the video), but its also more expensive to operate. Realistically it might save 20 minutes unless you have a lot more tunnelling, which would be more than a 30% cost increase. Most of these things are matters of diminishing returns. In this case, $25 billion gets you an hour. An extra $20 billion gets you 20 mins.
All of the viaducts needed on the I-10 in the dessert region isn’t necessary. It’s way cheaper just to realign the highway so the curves aren’t tight. For example 14:10
Sounds like a reasonable option in most places.
@@LucidStew and it’s only one of the directions of the highway you need to move the others one doesn’t matter, as it’s only of of the directions that block for curve. So in all desert regions you should be able to do 220mph (if the length of the section allows it) even in the cheapest scenario
Both are worth it and probably should have been built already... Personally I'm for a more Brightline-like plan relying on private business and value engineering because it's more likely to get shovels in the ground now and more likely to help build a Southwestern USA Regional HSR network that spans from Los Angeles to San Francisco, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas and hopefully one day to Salt Lake City and Denver!
It seems somewhat worthwhile. However, if feasible I'd do two stops in the PHX valley. One probably in PHX and one somewhere further east. Though, you could make sure you got a connection from the PHX light rail. There's just a lot of ppl that live quite a bit east of PHX proper.
I immediately subscribe
@lucidstew they are already talking about Phionix to Tucson, in a new track build out, maybe do a city pair, and talk about Tucsons Newer Small light rail SunTram
There’s is talks to build more as the small loop built already added $1B in investment
Tucson has collage development, and Starbucks just redid the Chicago music Store as a walk up store front
I can't wait for this to become a reality! I hope it helps my hometown of Blythe, maybe it'll transform into a bedroom city for LA or Phoenix workers like how Fresno anticipates the economic boost from CA HSR. Lots of cheap land compared with CA HSR. Hope we don't confront lots of red tape on a LA - PHX line. The traffic on I 10 keeps getting scarier each year.
Definitely the second version.
I like the $63 Billion route, if you are going competitive with the airlines, don't build cheap as it won't attract a lot of people. In Europe HSR doesn't go slow and people like faster rail over slower rail, especially over airplanes that have been prime targets for Terrorists in the past...
Nice video Stew.
id love to see an analysis of denver to el paso
I'm curious if you considered continuing to Tucson with this alignment. Tucson to Phoenix is constantly discussed as a decent rail opportunity and adding 1 million possible passengers and having the chance to kill a nasty drive would be great.
Since its a City Pair video, no. The plans for Phoenix-Tucson also kind of put the kibosh on a wholly original route on my part, but I'll probably do a video at some point about how the Phoenix-Tucson concept might be increased from merely fast to high speed.
@@LucidStew Excited to see!
This would be a great idea
The cost is a bit crazy, but I'm not a civil engineer so what do I know.LoL
But ever all a great idea hopefully it'll be implemented soon.
In my opinion we need to consult with European countries like Spain to figure out how to bring costs down. Spain in particular is able to build HSR systems relatively cheaply.
Make sure there is a stop for the Fosters Freeze at Chiriaco Summit
I thought for sure you were pulling my leg.
I assume LA Union Station as the 13th busiest station in the USA includes both commuter and intercity rail passengers. If it's just Amtrak, that makes Albany-Renseelaer busier at number 9 in the Amtrak system. You may not be impressed by Phoenix's Union Station, but it is there mission-style station, and if no one cared for it, it be gone by now I would think. I think incorporating it I to a new mixed-used HSR station complex would be very nice. As for the two route, I would take bits from both for a $45B project.
To expand slightly on the given answer. Early on, different railroads would each build their own passenger station. This causes obvious problems, some of which are solved by multiple entities consolidating into a single location.
Can someone please tell me where that "big beautiful freeway" at the end of the video is? Somewhere in or near LA I'm guessing.
It's U.S. 101 in Hollywood, heading into the Valley.
What happened to that really popular Bakersfield to Fresno Line.😊
They're still building it. I went out to see it myself. Check out my video th-cam.com/video/lFCGf-1hYHo/w-d-xo.html
I thought the fast version was going to be way more than that. At that price I’d say it’s a steal.
A lot of the overall price is getting from L.A. to San Gorgonio Pass, so you do have some potential complications there. If you need to run viaduct on I-10 through Covina, and if you need to tunnel under San Timoteo Canyon, that could make things significantly more expensive.