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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ก.ย. 2024
- View full lesson: ed.ted.com/less...
You’re stranded in a rainforest, and you’ve eaten a poisonous mushroom. To save your life, you need an antidote excreted by a certain species of frog. Unfortunately, only the female frog produces the antidote. The male and female look identical, but the male frog has a distinctive croak. Derek Abbott shows how to use conditional probability to make sure you lick the right frog and get out alive.
Lesson by Derek Abbott, animation by Artrake Studio.
*got poisoned by a mushroom*
"And it may just be your lucky day"
......
🤣
TED loves us.
Llololololol
Buy lotto in dying
My question is, how did he know all this about the antidote when he didn't know the mushroom was poisonous?!?
xp
Isabella Rose Nikle so true
Yeah, but if he didn't know the mushroom was poisonous in the first place, how did he know about the antidote???????? My question still stands
LoL, true question here. Maybe he was in doubt if it was Frognous, the ultra super poisonous mushroom, or Mushtart, the most delicious mushroom in the world.
Isabella Rose Nikle i know right
Guy: *Gets poisoned and has a few seconds to live.*
Also guy: hang on, lemme go over the probability first.
Lol
Ikr
Well you cant just risk it and go yolo
@@senbonkzakura7991 trust me at the verge of death that IS a possibility
@@MrSasukeSusanoo hmm ok
me: smart enough to deduct which frog is a female, and which is not
also me: eats a random mushroom, expecting to be okay
Yeah
To be fair, there are many safe to eat, edible species which look similar to deadly species. For example, "false morels" are mushrooms that are poisonous and resemble edible "true morels."
It’s for science!
Deduce*
I just went with "Oh, males make sounds to attract mates, so the other frog heard it and came there, therefore is a female"
Guess I'm not a math person lol
Oh Deer - Sabrina same
Oh Deer - Sabrina I also am bad at math
Me tii
Me too😆
What if they're both male and trying to attract the female on the tree stump
I wish I had a 67% chance of getting a female.
Lol😂😂
Haha u made my day xD 😂
+Zenn Exile dude....lmfao this is so true. It really crushes that "there's someone for everyone" bullshit and instead replaces it with truth.
***** There are Times, where I feel alone with my German sense of Humor - very alone.....
I was referring to a common german mistake mixing up "to get" and "become"....
lol
I've played enough fire emblem to know a 67% chance ain't goin to save anyone's ass
XD true
Basically like 50% except one side has like 17% more. Not much difference, might as wel pick the smaller percentage.
SOOOO RELATABLE
R.I.P. Cherche
except with criticals
better than 50/ chances
“You only have enough time to go in one direction”
*spends 10 minutes calculating*
“Ok time to go to the cleari-“ *dies*
Lol 🤣
Wow just wow
Yeah true
I was gonna comment this but found this one
well technically during the situation you wont really spend so much time in calculating the odds since its quite obvious which is right, they've simply expanded the explanation to make it easier to understand for other people. its like saying you need to sit down and do written calculation to find 18/3, when the answer for most people is direct and neednt be calculated
real solution: dont eat random mushrooms
lol
Yes! Someone agrees with me. You also beat me to the punchline XD
Or don't go into a random rainforest...
+Tay Unicorn Confess, most of us would be Dead before being done with the riddle
I said look at their areas where the sun doesn't shine....
Plot twist! The frogs were just hallucinations from the mushrooms he ate and were actually just more poisonous mushrooms
Patmike2 ded
Patmike2 XDDDDD
Patmike2 lol
There is actually a hallucinogenic frog that contains dmt and can be licked.
My idea was to run to the clearing because the other frog was actually an hallucination.
I think you'd die by the time you finish calculating...
Yah
thats what i said
I thought the same
Well you aren't meant to calculate before you go, you're meant to already know this type of probability business so you just kinda go the right way from the start through intuition. This video is here to save your life ahead of time. :P
MrServantRider They're both actually even chances, but ok...
I love these kinds of riddles, where the puzzle necessitates that you don't have time to go after all three frogs, but you do have time to calculate conditional probability in your head.
The calculation is super quick if you actually know the math though...
@@CerberusPlusOne If you know the math, you will understand that both options are equally as likely to save you, ted-ed got this one wrong.
Here is how I see this problem. Let's assume the one on the left is the male we heard. Let's also put a (c) next to it when notating the possible combinations. The one on the right has a 50% chance of being a male and 50% chance of being a female. So for this scenario, the possible combinations are M (c) - M and M (c) - F.
If we assume the male we heard is on the right, the one on the left has a 50% chance of being a male and a 50% chance of being a female. So for this scenario, the possible combinations are M - M (c) and F - M (c).
Thus, with no assumptions, we have these 4 combinations, with an equal (25%) chance of occuring:
M (c) - M -> no antidote recieved.
M (c) - F -> antidote recieved.
M - M (c) -> no antidote recieved.
F - M (c) -> antidote recieved.
In conclusion, we can see there are 2 instances in which the antidote is recieved, each with a 25% chance of occuring, and 2 instances in which the antidote is not recieved, again each with a 25% chance of occuring.
For both options we calculate the odds like this: 25% x 2 = 50% chance of antidote recieved.
25% x 2 = 50% chance of no antidote recieved.
This means that the option in which we lick the frogs in the clearing has a 50% chance of saving us, which is equal to the 50% chance of being saved by the frog on the tree stump. Thus, both options are equally correct.
@@rorangecpps1421 But we don't know who is the male we heard and without this information M(c)-M and M-M(c) are the same. Info changes probability.
@@rorangecpps1421 They are not equally likely. Member that probability that event A happens if event B happens is probability that both A and B happen divided by probability that B happens. Here A is at least one of two frogs is female and B is at least one of two frogs is male. Both A and B happening means that two frogs must be male and female. Probability for that is 1/2 and and B happening means that not both of them are female so that would be 3/4 chance. 1/2/(3/4) = 2/3.
@@yary2343 by that same token, MF and FM are the same, since the only way for them to be different is if the position of which frog croaked matters, which would mean that M(c)-M and M-M(c) would have to be different, since the position of the croaking frog is different. removing one requires removing the other and leaves you with two options, MF and MM.
"you only have time to go in 1 direction"
*Does math that takes over a minute*
Logic: this is fine.
Don't worry, the answer is wrong and the actual math can actually be solved in an instant.
@@Chraan it was due to exhaustion, doy
How time be moving in anime
And the math question in a 1 hour exam
Plot twist: the guy watches Ted-Ed and knew about this riddle and the answer
(Before seeing answer)
Odds are equal, unless mating is implied to have an affect.
Clearing: 1 male frog, 1 unknown frog. (0% + 50%)
Stump: 1 unknown frog. (50%)
(After seeing answer)
There _aren't_ four possible combinations in the clearing, because the order doesn't matter at all.
Having
F M
F F
M M
M F
isn't logical because two of them are functionally identical.
Yeah.
It doesn't apply to each of the two frogs separately. It doesn't matter which one croaked; one of them is guaranteed to be male. We can forget that one exists, as far as calculations go. The only reason it might not be 50% is if the social patterns of the frogs played a part in the calculations, which was not specified.
This is what I thought too.
Then you were right
You are correct. Trust me i'm an engineer! Also, if you go at the clearing, you only have to lick one frog instead of two, one of which is definitely male frog!
You take 10 mins to do math and die of the poison mushroom
CONGRATS! YOU SOLVED THE RIDDLE!!!
i love you knukels
gogomen101 change your pp
Actually once you know how to do conditional probability, it kinda takes seconds for that case since the sample space is that little
Vincent William Rodriguez what's pp?
"So youre stranded in a huge rainforest, and youve eaten a poisonous mushroom."
Very relatable situation, Ted-Ed.
Well, i do live in Brazil, so it could happen one day
You should see their other ones. Seriously, this has got to be the most normal riddle out of all of them.
But its just a riddle
Lmao
Not to mention the fact that you have to lick frogs to survive...
BUT
The male frog croaked loudly, and so depending on what time of year, he could be looking for a mate, and he wouldn't need a mate if he already has one and so that means that both frogs in the clearing are most likely male, and so the tree stump frog is more less likely to be male.
Thats what i thought
But
This isn't real life and you have to act on the facts given in question
I thought that too!
EXACTLY
I thought of that too. Would be nice if the riddles are labeled Probability and Logic so you have a better shot and more choices
I'd be dead before I figure this out
same
+GugulynnPenguin True That
+GugulynnPenguin what's not to get?
me to
doesn't matter, I'd automatically go to the two
I guessed the clearing because one of the frogs was male and I was thinking, "hey, what if they're like mating or something?"
😂
Yea same
same here to
Me too
The too frogs were looking at the tree trunk. Like stalkers ready to speak up and try and get a date with the frog at the tree trunk. What if they are both males try to attract that female.
If you think about it in a more realistic setting, two frogs next to each other are very likely to be mates, as they are not fighting over the one on the stump. This means that it is instantly way more likely for one of two frogs to be female.
You can make the odds say whatever you like if you inject arbitrary variables.
Your argument is easily destroyed if the frog on the stump is male or the frogs in the clearing aren't aware of it. But of course, the original question does not provide any of this information, so it is meaningless to make hypothetical assumptions.
yes this is the exact problem with these videos, they're not logical and also their math is just straight up wrong anyways
Even then both could be males and are lekking. Sometimes male frogs will group up especially males with weaker croaks will stay near males with louder croaks to imcrease their odds of finding a mate. Plus it could just not be the breeding season so they aren’t reproducing or just chilling. But yeah the two frogs are the better option.
But I don't really get the odds they calculate. I kean I get the calculation, but also:there's a 100% chance one of them is male, so therefor I would think there still is a 50% chance tou get the wrong one... Is this not true???
@@DaniqueEmiliaSteinfeld no, you're right, the video gets it wrong.
I solved it, really simple math
Step 1: Don't go into a forest alone
Step 2: Don't randomly eat mushrooms, idiot.
Step 3: What kind of weirdo licks frogs?
Drink Bleach Please... XDD ikr
exactly, who would go in the forest and eat random mushrooms
+Amy agwumezie Mario of course
bjgeantil True tho XD
Amy agwumezie XD
So if you see which frog croaked the other one has a 50% chance of being female, but if you don't it magically goes up?
Moral of the story: don't pay attention and you'll be luckier
That reasoning appears consistent with the flawed logic used in this video, similar to common wrong approach to Bertrand's box paradox and red/blue card problem. The questions are phrased in a way suggesting real-world interactions, not quantum-mechanics in which merely observing something can totally alters things.
Part of the confusion people have is that the above examples as well as this one do technically involve conditional probability, but does not affect the sample space in the way incorrectly used to solve it. Based on just the given probabilities and simple facts given, without making any erroneous assumptions (based either on implied verbiage like in the original wording of Monty Hall problem, or completely imagined, or inserting outside knowledge flawed or correct), this case is analagous to Bertrand's box: the probability of **_the_ other** (i.e. at least one of the two, but one is guaranteed not, so one of the one) frog from the pair being female is 1 in 2, identical to the probability that the lone one is.
Imagine the same scenario but with the numbers higher. Suppose the total number of frogs is multiplied by 8: eight on the log silent, eight in the clearing. You perceive at least 2 separate frogs croaking from the latter group. You require the lickings of at least 3 female frogs instead of just 1.
Yes yes, ignorance increases your odds of survival
Actually you could of seen the frog and the odds would have been the same this is shown in the much more Famous version of this riddle.
You are on a game show. Three doors. behind one is a car, you pick it you get it. You pick one of the 2 wrong doors you get nothing. You pick door 3. The host who knows what is behind the doors reveals that behind door number 1 is nothing, it was a losing door. He asks you if you want to switch and get what is behind door 2 or stay with your original pick door 3. What do you do?
That one tends to make more sense to people because you are basically taking the 2/3 odds you were wrong when you picked. instead of the the 1/3 odds you were right originally . If you have switched you have essentially picked both doors 1 and 2 instead of just door 3.
@@dragonlogos1
This riddle is not a clone of the Monte Hall problem.
MasterChief0522 name one Functional difference
It still feels weird... I know that on one side there is one frog that is either male or female, and I know that on the other side there is one frog that is either male or female. The fact that there is an extra male on one side seems like it shouldn't matter since I'm gonna lick both anyway, so I'll be licking a male + another frog that is either male or female. O_o
That's what I thought too.
its like one is going to be male, but the other one you dont know. however the chance is not 50% because both frogs can be the male one, and that gives you a higher chance because you dont know which one is male. since both are not guaranteed male, both also can potentially be female, though not simultaneously
+Haran Yakir . Yeah, I think their answer is wrong, I think I've heard this before. In the case of two males, the croak could have come from male1 or male2 so that case must be counted twice, giving 50/50 % again. A similar problem has been discussed a lot, and depending on how you interpret it you get different conclusions...
ikr
+ZyTelevan
Video doesnt take in the fact that only a male frog can croak.
If you heard one frog croak, that gives you these options
Frog 1 male frog2 male, frog one croaks
Frog1 male frog2 male, frog two croaks
Frog 1 female frog 2 male, frog two croaks
Frog 1 male frog two female, frog one croaks
Now if it was impossible to find two female frogs but both male and female could croak, the video would be right because then you are getting these other possibilities:
Frog1 female frog2 male, frog 1 croaks
Frog1 male frog2 female, frog2 croaks
Having a male and a female on different positions dosent actually add to probability it would still be 50% their is one frog and that frog has a 50/50 chance of being a male or a female same with the frog on the trunk both answers are 50/50 we can just ignore the male frog as the male frog isn’t there for a specific reason no reason to account it to our decision
I thought that too. if you're gonna lick both of them why would it matter which side each was on ?
a lot of people are trying to argue that the solution posed in the video is incorrect. I just wanted to point out that this riddle is just another version of a well known and researched paradox called the "monty hall' paradox. It's structured differenty (you must choose between one DOOR vs Two Doors instead of frogs, but the actual paradox is the same). I'm not sure why these guys decided to make up their own monty hall paradox instead of using the original, but if you have doubts, please do some research on the original paradox and you will see that it has been proven that the probabilities in this video are correct. Mythbusters even did an episode on it.
@@MrCruztm There is very little in common between this and the monty hall problem. You have a confirmed losing choice and two remaining choices.. that's it. Every key aspect of the monty hall problem is missing here- they aren't comparable.
@@MrCruztm this isn't even close to the monty hall dilemma because in the riddle ted-ed presented the poisoned man licks both frogs, which in the monty hall dilemma is like picking BOTH doors you didn't select
@@k473r No, in the monty hall problem you select one door, one you haven't opened is revealed, and then you can switch to the second, unopened door.
My take on this is that in the animal kingdom, most of the male species would produce noise/scent to attract the females. It's more likely that the single frog would be a female and the other 2 frogs are males trying to get her attention?
I've an IQ of a potato
but you don't often see two males together as they would fight each other for territory, so the group of two would be more likely to contain a female as a mate to the male that we heard.
My take on this is you probably don't understand what a logic puzzle is.
still lost on this one. I see it as the stump has a 50% chance to have a female which has the antidote right. the cleared path has at least one male but we don't know which one. so one for sure is a male 100% that can't help and the other has a 50 chance to b a male as well or female. so 2 out of three combinations are gonna have a female but that's the theory of probability. I see it as only 33% chance roughly that the pair has a female Cuz the gender of the male frog in the scenario has no power of the gender of the other frog. someone please help explain this to me. I would like to either get it or see if I'm correct
+Alex
You're right on the workings, but eh.. 33%..?.. Anyhow; Here is my now copy+paste'd message which I made after giving up writing a new one each time, though eh, then again I'll just make telling you the last stop:
If the Male was frog A, the possible outcomes were MF and MM, if the male was frog B, the possible outcomes were FM and MM, FM and MF do not cross, regardless of whether you do not know which it is, since they are different situations, they still add up to 50%, with 1/2 representing each of them, while MM also represents 50% and 1/2.
Not knowing which one is male does not make there more chance that one could be female, it simply means there are more possible outcomes than if you did know which it was, while less than if you didn't. More positive outcomes likewise does not mean more chance at a positive result when the positive outcomes have a 50% chance as to which is possible alongside the negative one, to then roll the dice again between the select positive and the negative.
If I'm dumb enough to eat a PURPLE mushroom in the rainforest then how the hell am I smart enough to know how conditional probability works..
none of these riddles are realstic
Hollyhart19 ya
Hollyhart19 You're probably not.
Or maybe don't be an idiot to eat a wild mushroom.
That doesnt make any sense
it does
Except this video is wrong because the order of the frogs doesn't matter, so one of the two combinations of a male and female frog is also eliminated giving us a 50% chance there's a female in there... combinations vs permutations are also important. Although if it's mating season then definitely go to the pair.
But hey, let's give it a twist. Let's say you were thinking for too long, and now you are so nauseous that if you do go to the clearing, there's only enough time to lick one of them due to them being a few feet apart. Where do you go?
Exactly lol
+Fledhyris Proudhon Yes you're correct, if you could only lick one at the clearing, you should go to the stump.
But no, the order doesn't matter for the math in the original version. It wasn't because I didn't care, but because of the type of probability the question is asking. In the original context, you can lick both at the same time, so the question is of combination, not of permutation, so a M/F and a F/M pairing must be treated as one and the same and so the clearing still has a 50% chance of having a female just like the stump.
+lenno 15697 Deciding whether order matters or not isn't of personal interest, it's of the type of probability the question is asking. You can't treat this question as that of a permutation because it's very nature is that of a combination and therefore gives a 50% chance of having a female in the clearing, not a two-thirds chance.
Daniel Choi
That's like saying when you flip a coin twice, getting a heads and a tails is equally probable to getting two heads.
Not all combinations are equally likely (although all the permutations are). Just as you are twice as likely to get a heads and a tails than getting two heads (even though they are both one combination), you are also twice as likely to get the MF combination than you are getting the MM combination.
In this case, the probability of the combinations form a binomial distribution.
Answer: Confirm that you have green eyes
Tell the poison to leave
That makes no sense, but it is a reference to the green eyes prisoner riddle.
Ozo
@@GayahakJ ulu, man. Ulu.
Makes 0 sense
@@xpearl_heartx no
If I was in that situation I would be dead by now cause I don't have the brain to figure that out
You wouldn't be interested in watching these kinds of videos if you weren't smart.
+TALKINGtac0 not true. You can just do it for fun if you want.
Omfgg same im so dumb i would never be able to solve this i would be dead by then
Ctystalgaming right!😂
Same my brain wouldn't be able to figure this maths out I'm only 10 XD
Idea: dont eat mushrooms in the first place
Lol
Lilac Pastry makes perfect sense though
He said that at the end
Lilac Pastry it's a riddle
I know that. But seriously who would eat any strange mushroom?
Plot twist: all three frogs jumps away and you die no matter what
Omg lol!
jump*
To be consistent with the video's logic, there are actually two variations of male-male, one where it was the left frog who croaked, and another where it was the right frog. With this, you have two variations of male-male and two variations of male-female, resulting in 50% each.
Since you lick both frogs anyways, only the total matters, so I wouldn't put any distinction between male-female and female-male.
One way you can test this is with two coins, with one of them being double-sided heads. One of them will always come up heads, and you won't always know which one's which, but that doesn't matter, the other one still has only a 50% chance of landing tails.
For dramatic effect, if you saw 100 and heard the 99 of them croaked, you would still have 50% chance of one of the 100 being female, whereas this video would suggest you have a 99% chance.
I get what the video is trying to teach, and I've thought about how the riddle could be modified to get the 67% it's looking for, but I can't think of anything.
I thought I was the only one thinking this. It really is annoying when they're just going to ignore these things..
It's not the chance of one frog being female, though. It's the chance of two. The more frogs the merrier, really.
this comment is really well written, illustrates the flaws in this puzzle perfectly
@@novelyst it is still the chance of one frog because you know for sure that the other one is male and you need to find a female. The chance is 50% in both scenarios.
@@andreapizzichini it's not. The probability issue in the question is based on a simple evaluation of the frog population, not the gender of an individual frog: about 50% male, about 50% female. had you 100 frogs and 99 croaks, because the frog population is about 50% male and 50% female, it is far more likely that *a* frog is female (assuming that this happened by chance).
Think of it like this: if you tossed two coins, the possibilities are HH, TH, HT, and TT, right? Having a combination of H and T is more likely than the individual possibilities of H and H or T and T. Now, if you can guarantee that it's *not* TT, it is now more likely that you have a combination of two different faces than only heads. A 75% chance of at least one T goes down to a 66.6 . . .% chance, not to a 50/50. The same works for three coins, and so on.
If you get just one question wrong on a test, no matter where, you lose a 100% score. You can see how with an accuracy rate of 50%, 1/2 is more likely than 2/2, 2/3 is more likely than 3/3, and so on and so forth for (x − 1)/x.
Obviously go to the tree stump. Chances are that was a mating call for a _female_ frog at a distance. And Guess what. That frog at the stump is at a distance.
That's what I thought!
+Daniel Nelson Thank you!
EXACTLY!
Except that frogs mate by the female laying eggs in the water and the male fertilizing the eggs after they are laid so there is no direct mating. All of the responses indicating that the croaking has anything to do with mating are fundamentally flawed.
at first i thought like that too :D
I would not eat the mushroom in the first place because I'm not a dumbass.
Your name and picture fits so well with your comment
IKR ( ͡◉ ͜ʖ ͡◉）
EGGSACTLY.
Same, I'm not even a fan of mushrooms so I wouldn't eat it
I'd smoke it instead.
Ted Ed puzzles in a nutshell :
All disasters will stop themselves to give you time to think
Yup
I have a riddle for you: how can the guy actually know the antidote to the poisonous mushroom if he didn’t even know what it looked like?
Because he's hallucinating
Stolen comment
Brennan Kretzinger Maybe he ate the mushroom, started to feel sick and pulled out some reference book (or even his cell phone and googled it.)
You don't need to know what the cure is in order for the cure to work, therefore you automatically know the cure. I think that's how maths work...
MinishMoosen No that doesn’t make any sense at all, like literally that makes no sense in any scenario unless you know underlying circumstances
IT'S FIFTY FIFTY
MATHS IS LIES
Sup Brewis!
It is 50/50, but math isn't a lie, the creator of the video just isn't good at math.
It's a reworded Monty hall problem, and it's pretty funny you say he's bad at math when mathematically you are incorrect. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
This is not a reworded version of the Monty Hall problem, though it is similar in many ways.
Yeah, the one thing it definitely isn't is the monty hall problem.
In MH, only one door can have a prize, when in this one theoretically either direction could save your life. You're choosing between a set of one door and a set of two doors (but one of which definitely doesn't contain the prize).
real answer 0%.... why would frogs allow him to lick them like that? wouldn't they run away? 1:06
Kevin Hsieh exactly
I've been defending everyone with the 50/50 logic, I now found this. I need to rethink my life.
Kevin Hsieh ГMAO
They're nice frogs lol :3
Kevin Hsieh true
The odds are still 1 in 2, after all you knew at least one of the 2 frogs in the clearing was a male before you even acted so it is redundant to add it into the probability, hence there is still only a 1/2 chance that you will get a female frog in either direction.
If the scenario in this video was to be likened to the Monty Hall problem it'd be like having three doors with one of the doors already being opened before the game started. The whole point of conditional probability is that you update your old/used probability based upon new information, the problem with this scenario is that the new information was given before the original probability was acted upon. In the Monty hall problem each of the three doors present a variable, afterwards after you pick one the host picks one of the wrong ones which rules out one of the existing variables meaning you recalculate your probability using this new information. The scenario in this video can't be thought of like that is because the variables don't change, the stump and the opening are 2 different events that don't influence each other. The other reasons why the scenario in the video isn't like the Monty Hall problem is because in this scenario all the frogs could be male, whereas in the Monty Hall Problem at least one of the remaining 2 doors is a winner, also because you do not get to pick a second time.
What people seem to have a hard time understanding is that the fact that switching makes your chance of winning more likely has everything to do with the host, your chance of picking the right door the first time is 1/3, well the host knows for sure which one is the winner and makes sure not to pick it. What happens next is the part where most people get confused, the host basically choose 2 doors, the one he opened and the one he didn't, so the chance the other door the host chose but didn't open is the winner is 2/3.
This is why this video is nonsense.
Exactlyyyyy. The problem is that they’re making out like female-male is different than male-female, but if you lick both it doesn’t matter.
You can't just remove one of the frogs from the probability pool, because you don't know which one is the male, and you didn't know this before the 2 frogs were in the clearing. The video is not clear, but let's try it in a coin fashion.
Your goal is to pick a circle that has a Tails coin in it. In one circle, I flip a coin and put a cup over it. In the the other circle, I flip two coins and put two cups over them. I reveal one of those two cups to show that it's a Heads coin. Now, which circle do you pick?
People are getting confused because they think a Heads coin being revealed is a guaranteed presumption of the question, but it's not. Revealing that one is a heads drops the chance of at least 1 Tail from 75% to 66%.
What this video did is known as gambler's falacy.
@@Dubaikiwi Ah yes, when the heads is revealed for one of the coins for the 2 coin option, you have a 66% chance of getting tails from the other cup, of a 2 sided coin. I get you
not you thinking you're a smartass and ate it up💀 embarrass yourself
After you've calculated your odds, you collapse and die.
Oh well. You've lived a good life.
Too bad your last moments were full of math and brain pain...
The odds are 50%. If you are making MF and FM two separate odds, you also have to recognize M(croak)M(silent) and M(silent)M(croak) separately.
EXACTLY
You're not getting the point here.
No matter which male is croaking, there are always 4 variants.
And it's just the 50% M-M variation of 25% wrong answer
That was what i was finna comment. like did noone realise that FM is the same as MF
@@minhphanle3978 actually not. FM and MF are two variants of the same result, if we need at least ONE to be female then that means MM and MF are the possibilites so 1 in 4. It's irrelevant whether or not the first or second frog is female in this scenario.
Thank god, Im not the one who thinks the same!
If you examine the 4 possibilities, you notice that 2 of them are identical: male-female, female-male, therefore making the chance still 50-50. Another way to approach this is, if you number the frogs and say frog number one made the croak, then you can exclude the possibility of the frogs being female-male, meaning that there is still only a 50% chance of surviving
Yes exactly, this was my logic, not sure why the video is different because simply having a male confirmed means you can rule out one frog. Meaning it’s really just “okay do you want a 50/50 chance on a log or in a clearing”
The situation where 1 frog is male and the other female is twice as likely to happen.
@@_sparrow0 Why?
@@foopy7677 There are 4 outcomes: 1. 2 male frogs, 2. a single male and female frog, 3. a single female and male frog, 4. 2 female frogs. Each has a 25% chance of happening. Because we know that there is at least 1 male frog the first outcome is impossible. So situations 2, 3 and 4 have 33% chance of happening and because 2 and 3 are the same we can add up their percentages. So there is a 66% chance that there is a F and M frog and 33% that there are 2 M frogs.
@@_sparrow0Let's number the frogs: 1 and 2 and say that frog 1 is male, now let's examine the 4 outcomes again. 1: frog 1 is male and frog 2 is male - possible, 2. frog 1 is female, frog 2 is female - impossible, 3. frog 1 is male, frog 2 is female - possible, 4. frog 1 is female, frog 2 is male - impossible, because we labelled frog 1 as the male one and the fact that one of the frogs is male doesn't matter, what matters is that the correct frog is male. I hope i made it clearer
Just dont eat the fucking mushroom.
Right if I was stranded in a rainforest I wouldn't eat anything I see in there.
Rebzyy Well if you have really good knowledge about that kinda stuff you would know whats deadly and whats edible
ugh
I think they got this wrong. They drew up the sample space as if there is a "left frog" and a "right frog," at least one of which is male, and came up with three possible scenarios.
But if instead of having a "left frog" and a "right frog," you draw up a sample space with a "croaking frog" and a "silent frog" you only get two possible scenarios.
It's tempting to think that they way they did it in the video is correct because you're going to lick both frogs, and they each have an chance of being female. But in actuality, you know that one of them has no possibility of being female, and the only reason you lick both is because you can't tell them apart.
This is what I thought too, thus you have a 50% chance going in either direction. Either i'm getting whoosed big time, or they presented this one wrong.
I think where you might be getting confused is the point where you say "one of them has no possibility of being female"
Let's change what we're looking for to make it easier to understand. Instead of looking for the female, we try and find the male. If you hear a croak, you know that one of them has to be a male. Frog 1 has a 50% chance of being a male, and so does frog 2. But if both have a 50% chance of being male, that means the other 50% must be the possibility that they are female. So therefore both frogs, individually, have a chance of being a female. You said "one of them has no possibility of being female". Once you consider this, you realise that it makes sense splitting the frogs into the left and right frog.
@@Matthew-rl3zf OP is correct in their thinking, you have 2 possibilities- case 1: frog 1 croaked and can't be female. case 2: frog 2 croaked and can't be female. In either case your probability of survival is only dependent on the remaining silent frog.
Not sure what you're trying to point out in the second paragraph. Frog 1 has 25% of being female, frog 2 has 25% of being female. There is a 50% survival rate according to your logic.
@@kfbr3923 By your logic, it’s the same likelihood of getting 2 heads in a double coin flip as 1 heads and 1 tails. Try it.
@@Owen_loves_ButtersNo that's not the same thing. Flip 2 coins and look at 1, if it's tails, re-flip. If it's heads, mix them up (if you insist) so that you don't know which you looked at. You'll end up with the same likelihood of getting 2 heads as 1 heads and 1 tails despite the possible combinations of HH, HT, TH. Try it.
Sorry this might be dumb but isn't "male and female" same as "female and male"?
I mean you know that one of the frogs are a male so really there are only 2 frogs in question both of which have a 50% of being female.
That's wat I was thinking
Imagine if you flip a coin twice, what's the odds of getting 2 heads, 2 tails or one of each?
To get two tails you need to flip tails twice, so 0.5X0.5=0.25 (25%)
To get two heads you need to flip heads twice, so 0.5X0.5=0.25 (25%)
To get one of each, you need to *either* flips heads then tails 0.5X0.5=0.25 (25%)
*Or* flip tails then heads: 0.5x0.5=0.25 (25%)
As such there is two combinations giving you one of each, making it twice as likely to occur.
If you made a table a spliced both combinations that give one of each together, you'd end up with skewed odds (33% to get either option).
Thanks man
both the frogs are different. They have to be taken as separate cases
They got this one wrong, it's a 50/50 either way. This riddle is inherently different from the monty hall problem because the frogs have no connection to eachother, and there is no all-knowing being that eliminates chances for you. all of the frogs are an individual coin-flip
Exactly.
Or you can run to both
Nope! Search Bayes Theorem or the Monty Hall game and you'll get the same answer
So 1 of them is 100% male
And 2 of them have 50/50% chance of being female
@@silentofthewind The Monty Hall paradox is completely different, that is conditional probability and has everything to do with the host. i.e. You pick door one(1/3), host picks between door 2 and 3, host opens door 3, chance of door 2 being the winner is 2/3. Why? because the host had to pick between door 2 and 3 and cannot pick the winning door, so if you conclude the host picked 'both' doors than the one the host didn't open has a 2/3 chance of being correct.
The situation in this video is very different.
So if I knew which of the two frogs made the noise, would I have a 50% chance in surviving?
Yes
+erifetim No
+Yacine Benkirane Yes
+erifetim as amazing as it sounds, if you knew that one of the frogs is male and the other one female, your chance of surviving would rise to 100%
but the chance of surviving or probability in general has no effect on the actual result, which is determined by the laws of physics
+erifetim No,
If you know which frog did the noise, and if you don't- It still leaves you clueless about the 2nd frog.
The location of them doesn't actually matter sense you lick both of them.
you only have time to run not to think get a notepad pull out a pencil and do math
right
If you know conditional probability before hand, this takes two seconds to do.
+Awesome Gameplays less
EXACTLY
+Awesome Gameplays If you know conditional probability before hand, you will realise that it doesn't matter whether you go for the clearing or the treestump (and you will realize that TED-Ed is wrong).
i still dont get how it's a 67% chance of living when going to the clearing it should be a 50/50 shot going to either side right. when he was doing the math he included a duplicate pattern [male, female] [female,male] which made his answer of 67% incorrect or am I wrong and should both be included?
Since it is shown in the video that you can lick both frogs at the same time. Positioning of the Frog whether it's a Male and Female or Female and Male doesn't change the fact that you still need to find a Female regardless of it's position. So I believe that it should still be a 50% chance. Hence if you really look at it closely the one of those 2 frogs only has 2 possibilities either being a male or a female so it's a 50/50. Position should not affect your chances of it being a male or female frog.
@@taiyou2331 and yet there's somehow still people that argue that MF and FM are two different scenarios that are independent to each other. I find it astounding that people graduated high school without ever having learned the difference between a combination and a permutation at all, thus leading to so many pointless arguments in defense of the 67% chance
@@Bapringles but they are still the same combination
@@flyingonionring And that's what they don't realize and/or defend. People just can't comprehend this simple idea and believe MF and FM are different scenarios that should be counted as such, despite both leading to the same result
@@Bapringles Search the Monty Hall game or look at Bayes Theorem; you'll see the answer both theoretically and empirically is 2/3!
The tree stump has a 100% chance of having a female frog because the frog croaking was looking for a mate so it croaked to the female on the stump
RubyHamster EXACTLY
That's what I thought!!
Rubyhamster ted ed might know math but he sucks at biology
That's what I thought! Although he didn't gave us an exact example of how they mate or attract other frogs :/ but other than that you are correct!
Eliza Roll AND PEGGY
Concerning the pair of frogs, either you heard the frog on the left, in which case the possibilities would be MF and MM
or you heard the frog on the right, in which case the possibilities would be FM or MM
so the possibilities are FM, MM, MM, MF
But, you say, MM is listed twice, and it's the same configuration. Now let me use a Capital letter for a noisy frog, and a small letter for a silent one then we get:
fM, mM, Mm, Mf
as the possibilities. It would make sense that double male is listed twice, since with 2 males, it's twice as likely that one of them would make a sound
So, bottom line: 50% chance either way...
if all frogs are male, youre dead and your decision doesnt matter.
if only the croaking frog is male, you live and your decision doesnt matter.
so the only time your decision matters, is when there are exactly two male frogs and one female.
which means this is the monthy hall problem in a disguise, so the answer is 2/3.
if youre not familiar with it, 3 frogs in total, 1/3 any one of them is the female. so you choose one, but before you lick it one male identifies itself. if you stick with your original choice, youre sticking with 1/3, but if you switch, youre improving your odds to 2/3, because at that point only two out of the three frogs are unidentified and youre choosing one of them.
TheGundeck the reason we were able to break our options down into MM, MF, FM, FF is because we knew the probability of getting any one of those combos was equal. We don't have any information about how often a male frog croaks, or how likely they are to croak in a certain amount of time. So we can't say Mm and mM are equally as probable as MF or FM. The video assumes that P(mM) + P(Mm) = P(FM) = P(MF). Not P(Mm) = P(mM) = P(FM) = P(MF) like you suggest.
@@mitch9237 in order to make the probabilities like in the video, male croak rate would have to be 50%. That would make the probability of the single silent frog being female 67%.. survival rate is the same in both directions. If you change croak rate to approach 0%, survival rate is 50% in both directions.
I don’t think ted Ed is trying to assume anything here, they just don’t care if they’re wrong.
I haven’t seen that many flamewars as crazy as this one
It's because the video is wrong
Petr Novák Yes it it wrong
@Sophie Toma think again
Sophie Toma the possession of the frog doesn’t change things. It’s still 3 probable outcomes. Saying that the frogs possession is a different outcome isn’t valid because the position can change without the outcome changing. The odds of 1 frog being male are 100% and the odds of the other being female are 50%. Doesnt matter which frog is which
@Sophie Toma Don't forget the "male frogs may croak" part.
I know this is more of a PSA on conditional probability than an actual riddle, but you have a 50% chance of survival whichever way you go since the male frog is meaningless
a lot of people are trying to argue that the solution posed in the video is incorrect. I just wanted to point out that this riddle is just another version of a well known and researched paradox called the "monty hall' paradox. It's structured differenty (you must choose between one DOOR vs Two Doors instead of frogs, but the actual paradox is the same). I'm not sure why these guys decided to make up their own monty hall paradox instead of using the original, but if you have doubts, please do some research on the original paradox and you will see that it has been proven that the probabilities in this video are correct. Mythbusters even did an episode on it.
It's not 50%.
Think of this differently; what is actually being said is "if you grab two frogs at random, it's more likely you will grab a male and a female than two males".
If you phrase it that way it's easier to understand.
@@maxastro since 1 of the frogs are male then that means that only the other frog decides whether or not you live and thus only 1 frog matters, still 50/50
@@spoonythegamer21 That's not how flipping coins works. You can try this yourself very easily: Flip pairs of coins thirty or so times and record the results.
You will see that one heads and one tails, in any combination, happens about twice as often as two heads.
@@maxastro he just described the frog riddle and you came back with “that’s not how flipping coins works.” Right. It’s not the same problem. No one is arguing with you about your coin problem, we all get it. You can stop bringing it up. It doesn’t fit the video.
Guy: doesn't know mushroom is poisonous
Also guy: knows the antidote
What if he is study about frog, and he knows if a female blue frog cured all of the poison no matter what poison it is
Difference between Zoology and Botany
@@accidentallyaj5138 Actually, herpetology (study of amphibians and reptiles) and mycology (the study of fungi). Botany refers to plants, and fungi are not plants.
@@CerberusPlusOne An error on my part , apologies because I know better, that was a hasty reply which I didn't think through as in the moment I was thinking about plant based antidotes.
If there is a male croaking towards a female it could be a mating call. Since there is one male there the other cant be female as what's the point to calling to another one. So they would both be male trying to get the female.
The correct answer for this riddle is quite crazy. You don't even have a full chance of surviving it.
***** The problem is that this riddle has no definite answer. It only has a probability. It says which should you pick, not which has the probability of killing you. But there are still many other things that can contribute to the probability. So that's why this riddle's answer is incomplete. But it should have many different answers such as the one in the video.
It's a riddle. Ted is wrong due to this fact, as are you.
It's 50/50 chance. This is fact.
If, however, it was a question?
Great, then you could be right (though Ted would still be wrong).
why is it 50/50 chance if you go to the clearing with two frogs?
+xPhysicism
I'm going to hope that you're genuinely curious, rather than the usual whom is incapable of understanding and thus asks rhetorically:
It is 50/50 chance if you go to the clearing with two frogs. The clearing with two frogs has two frogs which can both be male or female. Now, use a probability tree (search online for an explanation of what one is, if you do not know what one is) and fill in the first line with "Frog A is the croaking Male" and "Frog B is the croaking Male", each with 50% chance - after all, it is guaranteed that one of them is the croaking male, we simply don't know which. Then, stemming from each of those add on "Frog B(Frog A stem) is Female/Male" and "Frog A(Frog B stem) is Female/Male", all 4 of the second lot should have 25% chance each due to each frog having an independent event, thus 50% chance of either gender. You now have shown that there is a 50%/50% chance in a far more time-consuming way than acknowledging that one is Male, and therefore excludable from the results to begin with.
;)
wait what? but wouldn't both have the equal amount of chances? because with the single frog, we know that there is a 1/2 chance. and with the double frogs, we know that at least one is male with basically leaves us with only one frog. and that frog has the same amount of chances as being male as the single one. the pictures of the two female and male frogs at 3:14 is the exact same combination but swapped around? that makes no difference whatsoever
It doesnt make sense logically its all mathematically while your logic would work if there where infinite numbers there is not. And as for the male female female male that goes for what is on the left and what is on the right
+Raivthx That's what I think too.
+Raivthx Remember, the frog on the treestump is probably a forever alone nice frog that's been friendzoned so it's probably male. Meanwhile the frogs on the clearing are likely a pair having sex which is why chadfrog was croaking so therefore there's a female there.
Seriously though, the guy on the video incorrectly used permutation instead of combination to calculate odds which is incorrect because frog positions do not matter. Licking both frogs on the clearing means you're taking a chance with only one frog, just like the tree stump frog. This is literally stuff you learn in day 1 of any college probability class.
+Raivthx There are 2 frogs so the probability of at least one of them being female is higher. When you toss a coin its 50% chance. You toss the coin twice, the chance of at LEAST of them is 75%.
+Raivthx Yeah I thought the same thing as well. I disagree with their solution, I think it's a 50% chance either way
"You ate a poisonous mushroom."
*jokes on you! I dont even like mushrooms!*
But this mushroom looked like a tide pod
@@surelock3221 😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳😳 tidepod!1!1!1!!1!!1!1!!1!
Yea boiii
@@surelock3221 omg 😂
LOL :D
This riddle doesn't make sense, the probability of it being male/female or female/male is the same outcome, which would mean it could only be female/male or male/male making it a 50% chance for either direction. Usually Ted Ed has good riddles, but this one just isn't isn't one.
Help me please because i'm stuck with the idea that: you see 2 frogs, you KNOW that one of them is male, which means only one of the two can be female, which is a 50% chance. So.... 50% chance for me both ways :S
Here it shows "Female-Male" and "Male-Female" being 2 different things, but does it matter? The only dilemna is "Male-Male" or "Male-Female" in no order.
Why would knowing what the gender of one male is affect the gender of the other one? Perhaps is it like the Monty Hall paradox... but even the monty hall paradox I get to understand.
+Jack Scully I'm pretty sure you're wrong.
As you said - you are licking both frogs. So which one croaks has absolutely no relevance to this puzzle. So why should (m/m) be there twice? Think about it like 2 coin tosses - there's 4 possible outcomes each with the *exact same probability*:
(m/m)
(f/f)
(m/f)
(f/m)
Now because the "order" seems to confuse you we can also represent it as
and
Both still with the *same probability*
If we remove (f/f) from the "even" set we are now *twice as likely* to get an odd pair than an even pair. Which means our probability of getting an odd pair (and surviving) are 2/3 or 66.6..%
Oh, and one more thing that kinda bothers me. Maybe you should try "i think they're wrong" instead.
+Jack Scully I totally agree with you and think that the sample space was the issue. Can you explain what you are labeling as "a" and "b" in the equation though? Tried to work it out but I'm not sure which probabilities you're assigning to the letters. Thanks
Ralph Fischer
After having debating this, it appeared that TED is actually correct here. You have to consider the problem more like this: the 2 frogs are taken from a pool of female and male, and if the 2 are female, then the peer is rejected and you try again. And actually, FemaleMale and Male-Female, are actually different (although it took me a lot of time to agree to it), because you have to consider that the presence of this Male is not arbitrary (the boy could very well have found 2 females, but the croak says otherwise), and as such, if the first frog is a Male, there's only a 33% chance that the other one is too.
*****
I'm not a native english speaker and I have trouble explaining such a subtle thing, but the video is correct. You have to think that the presence of the croaking male is not arbitrary, it already took its part of the chances of having 0 female.
*****
I'm gonna repeat it: think again and you'll begin to consider that the presence of this croaking male diminished the chances of having another male.
wait a second... if he licks both frogs, we know 1 of them is male, so its a 50/50 if the other frog is the female you need.
that's what I thought, they are wrong
@Sophie Toma Male-Female and Female-Male r the same. Female-Female is impossible since 1 is male. its male-male or male-female
@Sophie Toma we know charlie is male. the video tells us that. (0:44) So...
Charlie is Male and Alex is Male
Charlie is Male and Alex is Female
@Sophie Toma ITS SAYS MALE FROG. AT LEAST ONE OF THE FROGS IN THE CLEARING IS MALE.
@Sophie Toma i see the light now
Wouldn’t it be 50/50 either way because hearing the one frog croak eliminates it from the problem. Also female-male is the exact same as male-female
you don't konw which one of them it's the trick
@@sajeucettefoistunevaspasme no it`s not
@@lindwurm5976 ok then just make math
@@sajeucettefoistunevaspasme
I wrote a long comment with the correct math.
I love these riddles.
RainbowPie me too
RainbowPie ME TOO
oh my gosh xD
V
me 2
just because there are more positive outcomes doesnt mean theres a higher chance of a positive outcome because different outcomes can have different chances
the chance is 50/50
Exactly
The frogs are separate from each other. You have the same probability either way. The chances of one frog being female is 50%, and there is one of these chances in the clearing and on the stump. The male frog does not matter to you, so there is essentially one frog on either side.
Nah. Think like this. A friend of yours tossed two coins, and ask you if he tossed any tails. But he also tells you that he did not toss two tails. What are the probability of having at least one tails?
Possibilities are these, each with the same chance of occuring.:
HH
TH
HT
TT - But this one is out of the question.
Chance sums neatly up to 2/3.
@@RegiRanka And what is the difference between TH and HT? Both scenarios have only one Tails
@@nomoiman the point is that there are two ways to flip one tails and one heads, but there is only one way to flip two heads and one way to flip two tails.
If you are playing craps, there are a lot of ways to roll a seven, but there is only one way of rolling a 12 and one way of rolling two. For the purposes of counting, you don't care if you roll a one and a six or a six and a one, but for the purposes of probability these are two distinct events.
@@ianhruday9584 No see, it doesn't matter in which order you get TH, your still left with one of each
@@nomoiman obviously, but that's not the claim. The claim is that heads tails and Tails heads are two distinct ways to get to the same outcome, but there is only one way to get to the outcome heads heads and there is only one way to get to the outcome Tails tails.
Man my brain hurts, I thought male/female and female/male were the same thing.
TheDudeReviews You're right. _He_ was wrong.
I could be wrong, I just don't understand it enough yet.
+TheDudeReviews Nope. Think like they were your children. First kid could be m/f. second could be m/f. In all you are more likely to have m/f in any order than m/m (your second child was not born first). Congrats for not blindly listening to Jake.
ka da Jake? not the narrator, not me, not the creator of the riddle
Who's Jake?
You are. You are Jake now. Get the f*** used to it. Lol jk jk. You're wrong though :)
"Can you solve the frog riddle?" Apparently TED-Ed cannot.
haha
oof
haha
Prove it
No, apparently Derek Abbott cannot. The description says Derek Abbott show you how
But the male frog in the clearing wouldn't be croaking if he found the female.
Yup the croak is actually the clue to the answer.
...True, considering the croak attracts females. What if the female hopped down from a tree after you take a few seconds of the video to realize this? It'd make sense then.
But...then they should be fucking right?
We may be overthinking this.
*Why Ted Ed is wrong here*
Ok think about it this way.
There’s a frog on a stump which is a 50/50 for male or female.
There’s 2 frogs in the clearing and 1 is guaranteed male so 2 - 1 = 1. One singular frog is 50/50 for male or female.
The fact that it isn’t “pick and choose” which frog you lick in the clearing but the fact that you “lick both” so it quite literally does not matter if one is male or not so you can just ignore the fact there’s a guaranteed male and focus on the fact there’s another frog that’s not guaranteed which has the same probability as the frog on the stump.
When you see two frogs, the equally likely possibilities are MM MF FM FF, yeah? If you see the first frog croak, you can eliminate FM and FF, leaving you with MM or MF, i.e. a guaranteed male + 50% chance on the second frog, which is what you describe. However, the uncertainty in the situation over which frog croaks (you can't be sure) means that only FF isn't possible, leaving three options MM MF FM equally valid. So 2/3 of the time you'll get a female in the mix.
@@DanielJamesJacobs I'm sorry, but I cannot agree with you. Imagine you have these three variations standing in front of you:
1. MM,
2. FM,
3. MF
If you hear a male's sound, which of these three pairs probably made the sound? It was a male's sound, so you can cross the Fs and calculate the probability fraction by counting the Ms.
Double M makes the sound twice as much often as an FM pair.
@@DanielJamesJacobs FM MF and MM are not equally valid. MM is now more likely (50%) because it has a higher change of croaking, since either M can croak
I can't be the only person that used biology to solve this and not probability?
nope
I did that too. And this changes everything. You usually wouldn't see 2 females together. But it might be 2 males calling the female.
+Symphonia doll But that's unlikely since they would fight rather than hoping the female likes one of them more. Frogs only croack if they mark there area or call for pairing but they wouldn't if they had their business with another male
+fabske 1234 I won't say much since I'm not an expert. But I think they do go to a specific spot together and call so females coukd hear them better. Then she'll choose. I've seen it on a documentary.
+fabske 1234 I've just got one question. Is what you said true for sure or just what you think?
The list of possible combinations would actually be 4 times as large, and the remaining possible options would be:
Definitely Male Maybe Female
Definitely Male Maybe Male
Maybe Male Definitely Male
Maybe Female Definitely Male
So still a 50% chance of survival with the two frogs.
Thank you. I thought the same, but your explanation was much more clear than the one I came up with.
The problem is you counted the croak twice, but you only need to count it once. Your list is simply the wrong list, because you counted MM twice, when it is only counted once. Counting MM twice is like saying that the chances of flipping 2 coins and getting 2 heads (HH) are the same as getting one tails and one heads (HT, TH). The only way that could be vaild is if HH and HH are different, which is absurd. But HT and TH are of course different. If you don’t belive me, just try it. Flip 2 coins 100 times and disregard TT, and write everything down and see how many give you at least one T and put that number over 100-# of double tails. You will probably get a number between .55-.87.
@@annadoesroblox6205 This is true without taking into account that you KNOW in this case that one of the frogs is male. This means that in your example, you have to know that one of the coins is heads. meaning the results could be any of these:
Right coin: definitely heads left coin: maybe heads
Right coin definitely heads left coin: maybe tails
Right coin: maybe heads left coin: definitely heads
Right coin maybe tails left coin: definitely heads
Honestly it doesn't even need to be this complicated though. All you have to understand is that one of the coins being heads doesn't have an effect on the other's result. If you're looking for at least one tails, and you know one of the coins is heads, you can simply throw that one out and only worry about the result of the remaining one. You don't have to know which is heads to do that either, you just have to know that one of them is, and the other is still unknown. Only the results of that unknown coin matters.
Babrukus - except that actual computations of probability and actual experimental results both show that it isn't 50%, but rather 2/3.
The problem that you and _many_ other is having is that you think the following two scenarios are the same:
1. You know the left-most frog is male. What is the probability that the right-most frog is female?
2. You know at least one frog is male. What is the probability that one of the frogs is female?
These are different scenarios that result in different probabilities. The frog riddle deals with scenario 2, but you are saying that this is the same as scenario 1 so the correct answer is the answer to scenario 1.
This is an example of Martin Gardner's "Boy or Girl Paradox". These two scenarios are different. The computations show this. And experimental results also show this.
@@MuffinsAPlenty the problem with the boy or girl paradox is that it has 2 answers based on assumptions. If you take every pair of siblings with at least one boy, you'll find only 33% are both boys. However, if you ask every boy with one sibling if they have a brother, 50% will say yes. Similarly, if you select a random pair of siblings, then randomly identify the gender of one sibling, there is a 50% chance that the other sibling is the same gender. This is the scenario that applies to the frog riddle, as one of them is randomly identified as male, rather than searching for a pair with at least one male.
I can't solve any of these, so I just watch, cause it's fun...
EDIT :I actually got this one!!
Cookie? Same! The only one!
Rotten Apple Gaming worst part is, if you got the answer in the video, you're wrong....
Cookie? Me too but I didnt solve this.
me too
OneGuyTheGoat nice job!
"67% chance of getting a female"... wish that number also applied to human beings
But in the "sample space", wouldn't the MF and FM be the same? So wouldnt it be a 1 of 2 chance because it could either be MM, or MF/FM?
Charles Li yeh i think its wrong look at it this way we know one is male so actually we are only realy talking about the second one and that has a 1 in 2 of bein female so this sample space here in the vid is WRONG
Yes! My friend and I thought the same thing and were so upset that Ted dropped the ball. I normally love these riddles, and now my holidays are ruined. 😭
lets say the frogs come in different colours then, but it gives no indication of sex. The two frogs are yellow and red, the solo frog is blue... so the two could be... yellow male, red female... it could be yellow female, red male, or it could be red male, yellow male... all those are still possible after the croak right? So how can you combine 2?
nor do i
By making them yellow and red I was trying to set it up so that you didn't conflate them in your mind.
Anyone else wondering why the guy was dumb to eat a poisonous mushroom yet smart enough to figure all that out
Perfectionist vs Pin
Lol exactly
Perfectionist vs Pin ya
This is actually completely wrong. It's still 50% because the probability is the other frog is female given one is male. They're independent events so P(B|A) = P(B).
Yes, this is correct. Another example: looking at all couples with two children, 75 % of them have at least one boy. But if you already have a girl and are now expecting again, you don’t have a 75 % chamce of getting a boy, but 50 %. The probability of having a boy resets for every pregnancy so it’s always 50 %. In the same way, the chance of a new-found frog being female is always 50 %.
You would be right if you supposed that he would lick one frog . But they supposed that he would lick the two frogs he gets on the ground.
@@زينبالموسوي-ب4ص I disagree with this answer. I think the probability of the left has 1F is approaching 50% while the population of the frog increasing. Here is my thought, we assume that there are 6 frogs in total and 3M 3F. We all know that 1M shown at the left and 1 unknown at the right. In this case, the probability of the left has 1F is 3 out of 4 (when the unknown is M), or 2 out of 4 (when the unknown is F). Therefore, the total probability of the left has 1F is (3/4+2/4)/2 which is 5/8. However, if we assume that there are 100 frogs, the total probability of the left has 1F is (50/98+49/98)/2 which is 99/196. As you can see, the probability of the left has 1F is approaching 50% while the population of the frog increasing. As the evidence has shown, we pick the left side since the probabilities of the left has 1F are always higher than right.
@@yuhaocupid3746 I think the riddle presupposes that there are enough frogs on the island that one frog being male won't throw the odds excessively, but even if that's true, you're incorrect. If the odds that the second frog on the left are 5/8, then the same is true for the frog on the right. You just run the numbers in the opposite direction.
@@Sir0chicken I believe that in the condition male and female have equal number doesn’t mean that the odd of a frog being female is 1/1. And using examples is the best way to fits the conditions.
solved the riddle...
that's enough work for today,
i'm going to bed.
Pretty sure this is wrong. Conditional probability is only for dependent events. The correct way of solving would be to consider the probability of one frog on the left side, since one is ruled out as male. Both sides are 50/50. If this isn't correct, someone please explain
I agree with you but several people don't, people keep telling me the order matters
+AlexsDominoes Explain? That is EXACLY what they're doing in this video... 2:22
When the frogs were selected, there were four possible combinations, each equally likely. You now have additional information to rule out an impossible combination. The answer is correct.
It wasn't proven that the croam was a male croak, it's just as likely he heard a female and didn't know it. But if we disregard that then you are right the answer should be 50/50
+AlexsDominoes I think the point is that there are three possibilities: MM, MF and FM. Since we do not know which one of the two is male, the different options FM and MF have to be counted once each, therefore we have a 2/3 chance. I do get your point though...
Wait if you didn’t know if the mushroom was poisonous then how would you know your poisoned in the first place?
Nice but, frogs only croak when there is not a female close then both are males.
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[drop mic]
This guy doesn't have anough time to walk to both frogs but he has anought time to think this hole mathematical equation through... that's straight out of anime.
damn i just assumed that the 2 frogs is a couple. didnt thought of any calculations hahaha
I'm pretty sure this is wrong. The problem comes from the application of the logic to this particular riddle. I would greatly appreciate it if someone would correct my logic if I am wrong.
The logic of the video is that:
The croaking of the frog told us that at least one was male. So we have three possible combinations of frog.
male, male; male, female; female, male
33% of each possibility happening, two cases of success leaves us with a 67% chance of success.
The error is that we gained two pieces of information, not one. When you said the male has a distinctive croak, you are also saying that if the frog does not croak it could be male or female. When one of the two frogs in the clearing croaked we didn't just learn that. "at least one is male." The information we gained is that. "One frog croaked, and one frog did not croak." That is to say, "one frog is male," and "one frog has a 50% chance of being male".
Because of this information we have two possible situations, not three.
Frog A croaked: in which case frog A is definitely male, with frog B having a 50% chance of being female.
Frog B croaked: in which case frog B is definitely male, with frog A having a 50% chance of being female.
This leaves us with a 50% chance of success, the same as the single frog.
The parameter for interpreting our information has a positive and negative assertion. So when the frog croaked, we gained two pieces of information, not one.
+Stiggandr1 I think that the error you make is that you assume A and B depend on each other while they really don't. What I mean is: frogs stumbled randomly in the clearing - their gender was independent of each other and one of them croaking does not change that. Solution presented in the video seems wrong at first but I've run simple simulation to check it out. It's correct. There was other guy with some code in the comments but I think he made the same mistake as you did.
You are correct a good Way of proving this would be to assume that you visually saw frog A croak. That means that you can eliminate your sample space to only two possibilities. Basically saying that just by knowing which frog it was decreases your provability of finding a female. In a real life application either way you would run would not matter because if you assumed you knew either frog A or frog B had croaked guarantees you only a 1/2 chance
That's the whole point: you don't know which one croaked. It makes your 'what if' logic faulty since some of outcomes overlap (have you thought about that?). Try flipping some coins if you don' believe it.
+ᅛ well think of it this way, you know one of them is at least male. Assuming frog A is male leaves you with a 1/2 probability and assuming frog B is male leaves you also with a 1/2 probability. The statistic should not overlap because if one scenario exists the other cannot. In a real life application it would not matter which direction you ran in.
Nope, you're right.
Am I the only one that watches these but doesn't try to solve them?
me too lol
yea
a pet named steve yea
i watch them but don't solve them sooo your not the only one
a pet named steve true
What if they hopped away
Lol
well
What type of frog stands there while you lick it
and while you are dying how are you going to catch one?
A type that is an antidote against a poisonous mushroom where clumsy hungry travelers can conveniently lick.
I wouldn't eat mushrooms on the floor
On the floor of grass
i feel like you could also look at this problem as, 'you know that there is one male and one unidentified frog in one direction, and one unidentified frog in the other. eliminating the known male frog from the equation because it does nothing, you now once more have a 50/50 chance in either direction.
like you do have to jump through some hoops to get to a 67% probability..
Think of this as flipping 2 coins, and knowing one of them is heads. 67% chance of a tails because HT and TH are different but HH and HH are the same.
@@Owen_loves_Butters So, by the logic of this riddle, he also could simply catch one frog which he knows to be male. Then he could mix this frog with the frog on the stem (which has a 50% chance to be female), until he dows not know which frog is which any more... and BAM- his chance of having at least one female frog increases from 1/2 to 2/3!
... No, thats... flawed
@@trissebude2184 No, having 1 heads coin and mixing it with an unknown coin isn’t the same as knowing at least one coin of 2 is heads. It’s like the difference between the probability of blindly throwing a dart out of a plane and having it hit a target vs. throwing the dart then painting the target around it. Same outcome, different probabilities.
@@Owen_loves_Butters The probabilities are exactly the same, because the variables are all exactly the same. Same input, same results. Reality does not care, how the two frogs came together. What counts is, there is atl east one male frog and you do not know about the other one. As easy as that
@@trissebude2184 Different inputs.
i don't get it. you eat poisonous mushroom, and you know cure for it, so why the fuck did you eat it?
+zaldak, For the special effect. He just OD'd
to experience alchemy
You wouldn't know it would be that specific type of mushroom
Actually... Your right
Cause you're an imbecile
This is by far the best answer for this situation.
Left : 1/2 = 50%
Right : 1/2
+XbossgameingHD burra1²
This is just wrong. The cases "MM", "MF" and "FM" are treated as equally likely, but in the "MM" case it'd be more likely that one of them happened to croak at that moment as there were two frogs who could. So hearing a croak, doesn't just say that "FF" is impossible. It also tells you a bit about the probabilities of the other three options. This is completely ignored in the video but changes the calculation quite drastically.
The answer in the video is wrong. Its 0.5 both ways.
No it's not
It is cuz
Where there were 2 frogs, 1 of them croaked that means that one of them is DEFINITELY a male.
Therefore it leaves us with only 1 frog with the possibility of female or male. 50% 50%
The place with only 1 frog is also 50% 50%
@@crazybestfriendforever1456 Let's think about it another way. I propose to flip 2 coins. I predict they will flip one head and one tails. If I'm right, you pay me £10 - if they flip both heads then I pay you £10.
Is that a fair 50/50 bet?
@@Moleoflands but that's a different scenario. The possible combinations are head-head, head-tails, and tails-tails, giving us a 1/3 chance of winning. In the video the options are Female-female, female-male, or male-male. Female-female isn't an option since there is at least one male in the duo. You would still have a 50% chance for the frog riddle.
Are you more likely to flip heads if you flip a coin once, or if you flip it twice?
Oh, shoot. The first flip came up tails. I guess it didn't matter! /s
Why would he eat a poisonous mushroom if he's smart enough to figure out the antidote of the poisonus mushroom!
+Princess Leia That mushroom is what MADE him smart! It was a mind-blowing experience that gave him insights from the ether.
+Brendan F Ummmm I didn't know that
if he didn't thinked about all the mathematic stuff and licked the two frogs, and the one on the tree he would be probably still alive
100% wrong. There are 2 frogs, 1 has 100% to be M, 1 has 50% to be male and 50% to be female.
We'll call the croakin frog M1. We don't know if M1 is the 1st of the 2nd frog of the 2.
(M1,M2) = 25%, (M2,M1) = 25%, (M1,F1) = 25%, (F1,M1) = 25%.
(M,M) = 50%, (M,F) = 50%.
TED-MissEd.
Your Sample Space needs Male Male twice because the Males aren't interchangeable. You have 1 croaking Male, and 1 silent Male.
+Jerome L. that would be true if you had to lick only one of the frogs. In this scenario, you lick both of them, so crocking male: silent male and silent male: crocking male are indeed a single option.
+shitasspetfucker121 But you lick both, so you don't care if it's Female Male or Male Female. So those 2 options are indeed a single option too. Since you lick both, order is useless. The video is wrong because they take in consideration the order for F M or M F and ignore it for Croaking M and Silent M.
There is a croaking male. There can be a female to his right, or a female to his left, or a silent male to his right, or a silent male to his left. All those options are equally probable.
Yes, that part bothered me as well. I am still kinda struggling to reach a conclusion myself.
+Jerome L. Jerome, that's the gotcha thinking of the Monty Hall problem. It's to think that it's a 50/50 change.
But it's not.
And unfortunately, you've come at it under the assumption that your limited experience with the math equates to a better understanding than those who have studied it in more detail than the few minutes you spent on a TH-cam video.
+Jerome L. Agreed... the answer they derive is incorrect. Even inserting logic and removing the math demonstrates that their example is flawed.
What about hearing the sound volume of the croak ? Like if 2 frogs croaked the sound will be louder than 1 frog croaking, and if you like both of them they are most likely a female and a male? I think
*lick
+Anny Seah if the two frogs croaked and didn't sound different i would go for the stump.
+Anny Seah That's not the purpose of the video, if they allowed that type of answer you wouldn't learn anything interesting.
+Anny Seah You're not considering the fact that the croaking is random.
Meaning that there could be a male that did not crock in this time-period.
+Anny Seah Defined size "one croaked".
The sole frog has 50% and so does the other two because we know one is male
Drink Minecraft milk
WTF
@@전혜준-p4z It's a minecraft joke. Whenever you drink milk in Minecraft all poison effects go away. XD
@@iwatchyoutube544 SAME THINGGGGGGG
it is malk
GRRL PWR
M A L K
Me: *doesn’t know that a mushroom is poisonous*
Also me: *knows the antidote*
HOW
copied
No time to question! Quick, lick some frogs! :D
I a
I don’t eat mushrooms
Edit: Thanks for the likes and replies! Luv u all!
good choice
Well at least u wont die from a poisonous one i eat mushrooms...
Ross the Boss lp
Well good for you
Ross the Boss you lucky