2024 Electoral College Prediction According to Latest Polls
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 พ.ค. 2024
- If the 2024 election were held today, Donald Trump would be favored to win the national popular vote. But how does he fare on the Electoral College map, where the all-important race to 270 electoral votes decides who wins the Presidency? Let’s take a look at the most recent polls to see how Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden are faring in all 50 U.S. states.
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Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on TH-cam, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
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Tons of registered voters won’t even admit they are going to vote for trump. Real shit
People on the Left feel entitled to get in your face if you don't go along with their way of thinking so many,many Trump voters just stay quiet about it because they are not looking for a conflict...
You are overestimating how popular trump is. He couldn’t even get the popular vote in 2016😂
@@moonlit_forest2680 candidates do not campaign for the popular vote....they campaign for the Electoral votes.....
@@moonlit_forest2680 and you are under estimating how un popular Biden is.
@@JW-iz6mv Jan 6 wasn't so quiet 😂 an election between felons, time to start evacuating the country
I would shit myself out of pure astonishment if Trump won Washington state XD
Do you live in Spokane?
What about Minnesota or Virginia
It would be the best thing to happen here in, like, my lifetime
@@ninjagamer1359 lots of gayness going on over there?
Sorry Freddy . Trump's victory is already done .
Polls are not always right we need to make sure we get out and voted for trump
SO you would be pro dictator. Russia is where you might want to move .I think it would suit you better
Trump
Can we please have the election now?
Lmao what
We still have to wait until January 20th, regardless.
only if you buy me a pizza
@@VoiceofRationale very good point.
They'd hate that because that means they'd have no chance of finding a way to disqualify Trump from the ballot
I really enjoyed how you revealed the States, from east to west, in order of polls closing. 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
FJB
Very well,❤
FJB
FJB. Trump 2024
I don't understand why anyone would want to vote for Biden after everything he has done to our country and President Trump.
Another idolt
It really is mind boggling but people have been brainwashed to not think critically about anything and just say "Trump is bad" without even assessing the situation
What has he done to Trump? Be specific.
@@ryanfisher4213"I hear you're free on Wednesdays"
@@ryanfisher4213 the 4 indictments have his administration name of over them
Who is trying to vote for Biden crazy!
could you name one piece of legislation that Trump passed? (other than giving rich people tax breaks)
Call me crazy
@@michaelanon2791a tax cut that benefitted everyone. Signed peace deals in middle east. You just a dumb bot
You don not have all the votes , lots of people will wait until is time to vote ! TRUMP 2024
Do you just not understand polls?
yes we need to "find" the voters meaning we can just summon a few thousand here and there right
Polls have ALWAYS leaned left, because polls are historically conducted by left leaning organizations, so their survey respondents are accordingly biased. Also, conservatives choose NOT to participate in them nearly as much as the left, as they are viewed as a waste of time, and their actual choice will be voiced when they cast their actual ballot. So it seems that @jonathanblake1511 is the one who doesn't understand polls, and @marsguy2020 is confusing a poll with an election....smdh
Regardless, if Trump loses it'll be "rigged" again. An election between two felons and sex offenders, this country is a joke
It's made up, it's someone just putting out propaganda,
I might make my own one
FJB 20%
45 4 47 24 80%
Facts
Your analysis is priceless. Nicely done.
That Zogby guy must be on the good stuff.
They love to give light red to anything 😅 wishful thinking.
Arkansas 7 points....he's on the glass pipe for sure 😂
@@scratchking3205Trump has it in the bag . Biden can't win . No way no how. It's over Biden for prison
The second thing is Illinois is in doubt the number of people in Chicago pissed of with democrats increase by the day
It is quite possible for Illinois to turn red in this election. That would bring the midwest back it's red roots.
After their mayoral election I have to say I doubt it. But that city is one if the most corrupt in the country. Hence windy city because the politicians blow hot air.
@@dangabor8585 OK let’s try to stay in reality here buddy. There’s no shot Illinois flipping red.
@@T69778idk, the county's have been somewhat red, now the blk city vote is PISSED!!!!
I grew up in chicago. They double down on democrats again and again no matter how bad the city gets. It's like there's something in the water.
Arkansas, Missouri and Mississipp not safe? 😂😂😂
That's a joke. I'm in Missouri.... It's safe.
No where is safe. There isn’t a state that doesn’t have any democrats in it. Don’t underestimate their capacity for degeneracy.
I'm from Mississippi. If you removed the federal support given to us, we would have to become a socialist welfare state to maintain our handout programs. There's also a ton of black people here. The entire delta is liberal. And our politicians are just as corrupt as California or Illinois just without the wealth and power to have national scandals.
@@nsmccoy224 same, its very safe
Hello fellow Missourians! And yes, I definitely third that, MO is moving further right each election. I definitely do see KS turning blue by 2032 unfortunately though
Kennedy needs to be on that debate stage!! Let’s flip Minnesota and Washington red!
aww yess another kennedy! Just what we need, hopefully use him as a puppet to make biden look even more tarded, if thats even possible!
Great video! Really enjoying how in depth you go for each state. I am REALLY curious if the softening of support in the mid south and the massive gain in support in WA are outliers or if either one of them is part of a trend, i wonder what the underlying factors to these would bd. I'm especially glad you factored in the WA poll due to how the rest of that survey looked nominal.
Keep up the great stuff.
I can’t wait; TRUMP; Beat the corrupt system 2024!!!
Hes gonna sent you back Carlos
@@denizinneed6384 Only if he came here illegally, Trump loves legal immigrants
@@denizinneed6384ok weeb
Trump is corrupt from start to finish. How evidence do you need?
@@denizinneed6384 LMAO
cant believe hawaii will still vote democrat espeically after how biden has treated them
Get Kennedy on a debate stage. Game over
They will do everything in their power to not allow that
“Eeerr err err vote for me and I’ll give you errr more section 8 & more gay black drag shows err the vaccines are bad”
Certainly a compelling message
No thanks. Far too left.
@@cobaltpluto2019That’s the whole point. Split the Dems.
@@couragerocks290 Fair enough.
Washington....glad to see some of my neighbors beginning to allow themselves to get a clue.
Washington Red?!?!??
Exactly what I was thinking
Dems are just that bad at governing. Who knew?
That's not what he shows. Thankfully it shouldn't matter if his predictions are right.
Could you do the same for the senate elections? I expect the map to look pretty different from this one.
Would hopefully be a landslide for Republicans. But senate races are pretty tough to poll since people dont show up to vote for senators alot of the time. They will usually match their presidential pick with their senator party wise.
LATINOS FOR TRUMP! My whole Mexican family voting for Trump
Welcome brother.
I'm in AZ and My family and friends will voting Trump 2024 first time ever voting Republican. Trump 2024 !
I’m a registered Dem voting for Trump hahhha
It's hard to fathom that anyone could vote for FJB in the condition of America right now. Especially Hawaii after the Lahaina fire and the pathetic 700.00 payment. This poll is already a landslide for Trump, but I'm betting it'll get bigger!
🇺🇸TRUMP 2024🇺🇸
GOD BLESS AMERICA!
The $700 FEMA payment is the standard for any disaster. That is what you would get if you were affected by a natural disaster. It is funds by FEMA to help people with temporary food , shelter, medicine until the full aid comes from the President. Biden has provided over $43 million to help Lahaina. So sad you are so misinformed!
November can’t come soon enough to get our country back on the right track !
President Trump always does better than the polls show. Alot of people won't say they're voting for Trump in these polls and then go vote for him. Trump 24
I agree!! Thanks 😄
Still think that university degree = educated citizen?? Lol
Ppl can be smart on both sides. Ppl generally have different fundamental values and beliefs based on their environment. Democratic states are wealthier so naturally their population will have better access to education and jobs that require specialized skills.
You mean people right?@@redjr2832
@@redjr2832 Education does not guarantee wisdom. Much less even intelligence. Facts and observations are updated on a constant basis. It also doesn't help when you have loon Profs literally bribing their students to "go vote" or "take action" for extra credit. That is not intelligence at all. Thats just a well trained pet at that point.
WOW! I CAN'T BELIEVE THAT THESE STATES STILL DON'T THINK THAT IT IS BAD ENOUGH YET...WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS! I AM PRAYING THAT WE DON'T LOSE OUR COUNTRY BECAUSE 2024 IS IT!!!
I think you'll see Florida DEEP RED
I think the true numbers for Trump are even going higher. This isn't all about Trump, but about Americans being so SICK of the blatant evil of the federal establishments. OUR COUNTRY. YOU ONLY WORK FOR WE THE PEOPLE!
You just accidentally wrote a fantastic RFK ad. Unfortunately Trump is all for those federal establishments
@@P.Harmony the same ones that hate him and unite most congress members from both sides against him?
@@P.Harmony
RFK claims he had a brain worm that died in his brain. It probably died from starvation. He’s wacky and believes some radical leftist ideas. I hope more loons vote for him and split the liberal vote.
Trump is anti establishment. That’s why they are going after him so hard with bogus charges.
AND ILLEGAL ALIENS
Exactly 👍🏽 Right
Can you do a map for vp pick per state?
I HIGHLY doubt Washington will vote Trump. Although I hope I'm wrong
The biggest joy of my life b4 i die is to see NYC flip ♥️ red
did you factor in the democrats cheating ?
A US postal truck was seen leaving a cemetery in Pennsylvania yesterday
@@trumpcard4182😂 what’s your point🤨
@@trumpcard4182 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@Russ1963,
What cheating?
You mean very little to nothing?
I am a Republican/Trump supporter who has no problem saying that you and others like you are being ridiculous!
Trump lost in 2020!
Get over it!
There is no proof that Biden lost and Trump won. Trump lost due to these things...
1.) The Republicans losing the midterms in the house of representatives in 2018.
2.) The recession that happened during the election year of Trump's presidency.
3.) Negative GDP growth that happened during the election year of Trump's presidency.
4.) Social unrest.
5.) Getting impeached... TWICE, by the way.
6.) No MAJOR foreign/military success.
ALL OF THOSE THINGS AS A COMBINATION LOST THE ELECTION FOR TRUMP. THERE WAS NO "STOLEN ELECTION".
LET'S JUST HOPE TRUMP WINS IN 2024!!!!
Virginia and Minnesota flip Republican if we factor in democrat cheating.
Trump 2024 🇺🇸🐘👍🎉 we need him to beat crooked Joe Biden
@@SchrodingerNewton😂
Do we ever.
Sleepy Don go to jail first.
@@thole210 No he wont stop lying to yourself
THANK YOU! I see you’ve added Washington. It’s exciting. I wonder if Trump knows. I hope he targets it with emphasis. You do a superb job. I’m sure you have it, right, but I must admit I skipped ahead - for now! I’ve been up over 24 hours, so I will have to save watching until tomorrow. I appreciate your work very much and look forward to seeing this. God bless you.
What about Nebraska an DC?
No poll for Nebraska's districts, presumably this is true of DC as well. So, not included in this map. Although there's no doubt, poll or not, about how DC will vote.
There is polling for nebraska not sure about dc thouugh but currently trump holds a lead in all districts @blshouse
Nebraska is all red except for 1 district which may or may not be red and D.C. will unquestionably be blue. As that place is literally just the gov't voting for themselves.
I can tell you with certainty, D.C. will vote for Biden, Trump will get 3 of the 4 Nebraska votes.
@@blshouse It's fairly safe to say nebraska if leaning red will be 2-1 R-D at worse.
Missiouri is the most surprsing to me, as a local, its confusing the heck out of me. Other than St Louis, MO is pretty red as far as I'm concerned.
tbf in many blue strong holds. Theres1-3 cities that carry the blue vote and the rest of most of those states are red.
Washington? Really?
I really doubt it will go red this election, but I do see it happening within the next decade. Outside of Seattle-Tacoma, Washington is very republican. There is no doubt Biden's lead will not be as good.
Whilst showing the polling results regionally is interesting, I prefer you starting with the solid states and then ending with the lean states highlighting recent changes (if any) as that emphasises the states where the race is likely to be won or lost.
Good video but I think you forgot to color code Nebraska's safe republican area. I realize there was no polling data for the smaller Nebraska districts 1, 2, 3, but I think the map should show the larger area of Nebraska being safe republican and therefore red. It will be very interesting how WA goes. Thanks for the well done video.
Unreal its even that close 😮
I’m a Delawarean, and my dad always said he’d die before he voted for Biden. He was right!
Bro, as a Washingtonian, this gave me hope for my state for the first time in forever 😭 Praying Don comes here and flips the state red 🙏🏻
FANTASTIC ANALYSIS
I agree good job.🇺🇲💯👌🙏
Washington flipping to tilt R is interesting, but the pole only surveys 250 RV and that raises the question if there should be a minimum number of those surveyed before considering it. Also I think time since being surveyed should be considered as well. Some of these poles have become a little stale. I assume as we get closer to November the poles will pick up and hopefully solve these two shortcomings and the predictions will gain accuracy.
They are accurate, working people of Washington state can’t afford a tiny house 🏠 under 500,000$ 😂 and besides Inslee isn’t running for re election and is letting his democrat friend Ferguson to run for Gov, idk if you’re from Washington or not but Ferguson is a very weak candidate for governor…I just don’t see these liberals running this state anymore after what they have done to cities like Seattle and Tacoma.
We can only hope !
Donald trump is the best president
When Donald trump was president there were not wars across the world
Donald trump keep it going
They could make a movie about how the left would react to Trump winning again. It would be crazy entertaining.
One thing I learned after 2016. Never trust the polls.
Is John Zogbie Strategies a good pollster ? many of their polls seem strange, especially the very high polls for Kennedy compared to other pollsters, as if they were promoting him, what do you think ?
not really.
It is still not a question of who you vote for but who you vote against. And it reflects in the results.
#2024Elections: Note 📝 to all Voters 🗳️ especially independent voters aren’t y’all sick and tired of the Uniparty selling out America 🇺🇸? We need a President that won’t sell out America 🇺🇸 and that will put America 🇺🇸 First and have policies that will benefit all Americans 🇺🇸
Well done, but you must look at the registered voting data, especially in Florida. From a registered Democrat favor of around 300 Grand, in 2016, now to over 900,000 in favor of the Republicans as registered voters. Democratic voters have decreased by about 60,000 people and Independence by about 85,000.
I think joe would win if rfk Jr. wasn't on the ballot.
Great summary here EP but i still think Washington is a long shot
Florida Republican
Turkeys voting for Thanksgiving 😂
Please, God, Trump 2024! 🇺🇸
Most polls are old whiles some are new
Trump 2024 blowout let’s goooooo! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Trump is likely to be convicted in NY.
There is no way Cali should have 54 electors. They just barely got there this last census. 100s of thousands have left.
Great
Might sound crazy but I would not be surprised if New Jersey is watched closely come election time.
The only things which count are:
1. People actually voting
2. A reliable, viable and empirically sound voting system
What are we to make of polls that have a low number of potential voters? Especially in battleground states and/or states that are a surprising flip for Trump (i.e. Washington state).
thats just the common statistical method. You only technically need so much to be statistically significant. Personally I think it's prone to issues. But it's how most people do it.
For example for 39m (california the largest state) you would only need a sample size of 2401 and to invite 12005 individuals. That would give you the correct amount with an estimated response rate of 20% and give a confidence level of 95% with a 2% margin of error. tbf due to the formula 2401 is the top end for basically any population greater than 1million. I honestly couldn't tell you or proof you why. I just know it's a thing. But anything for a state of 1m or more and less than 2401 sample it is a higher margin of error and a lower confidence.
Thanks, this is a quality answer. @@PolitikPolitik-fh2qc
Who are these polling company’s.
And so shall it be.
🎉hell yeah trump2024
Please never mention "beaver" and "Hilary Clinton" in the same sentence ever again.
THERE IT IS....
Why would anyone in NY vote for for Biden, after what he did to NYC
I think NJ SB purple, he is almost at the margin of error
Advice Of The Day: America 🇺🇸 we definitely need new leadership. This country needs saving from the Establishment who wishes to do this country harm. Look at the horrible policies known as Bidenomics that’s drastically affecting our lives in the worst way possible.
Washington state flip is actually suprising I wonder if this trend will continue over the coming weeks up to the debates and elections
Absolutely agreed
Voting Trump in Seattle! 😁
#45 #47 ✌️
🤝 Red Washingtonians should form a support group, haha 😅
@@ninjagamer1359That’s literally just Eastern Washington😊
@@kanyasmr Fair enough 😂
You missed DC and the districts in Nebraska
The poll sample size is way to small
All can do is hope and pray .
They forgot to assign the bot count to Nebraska’s three districts. Other polls have done so.
what about DC's poll?
DC is so massively democrat that none of the polls ever do one there. They see it as a waste of money to do a poll in DC, which it honestly is. Dems regularly win there with 90%+ in the elections. So even if it had a massive shift to the right of say 20%, it still wouldn’t come close to mattering.
And since there will never be a poll done in DC, when he does these maps based solely off of the last poll done, it will always be left out so he can remain fair and consistent to the rules he has in place for these vids. When he does the maps based off his opinion/the aggregate, he marks it as safe dem each time.
@@greggmason8604 TL;DR gov't workers are self serving. No surprise.
I thought there was one poll for Nebraska‘s districts but I could be wrong
I watched your last election predictions, way off from what you predicted, but I hope you're mord right on this time.
I agree
EP You forgot to mark Nebraska for Trump. You told us the survey results but never clicked on the 3 districts in Nebraska.
well technically I don't think theres any polls for the 3 districts just the states overall. likely 2-1 or 3-0. One is usually up in the air.
@@PolitikPolitik-fh2qc No argument with that. I am only pointing out that on the map display, the state was left "neutral."
Thus Trump's final count was short-changed.
If November doesn’t arrive soon enough.
Trump 2024
Joe Biden 2024, let’s go!
Ideally, every state would be split like Maine and Nebraska. I think allocation of electoral college votes should be determined by taking the natural logarithm of the population, since population growth and decay follow exponential and logarithmic functions typically.
Let's make MN pink! :-)
You forgot to tell us about Ne!
Amen
You forgot the rest of Nebraska which is in 3 sections
The Washington poll also asked the respondents how they voted in 2020 and got Biden +5, far from the Biden +16 or so that it should be. So it probably still is an outlier.
Idk bc there is alot of liberals and lqbtq in Seattle area so idk.. but i would be thrilled if it voted republican this election lol
@@chill-pill923would be surprising
When your only plan is to hate on one man instead of, you know, GOVERN. Its no shock really.
Don’t ruin my dreams for this state to not be garbage one day 😢
No sound?