Note: Today’s stocks traded down on the news that the Fed may only cut rates twice in 2025. This is not great in the short term because we were pricing in 3-4 rate cuts in 2025.
One thing I don’t understand is that the extra 0.25 or 0.5% rate cut (for 3-4 more cuts vs 2 more cuts) translates to -4% movement in the stock market. Will a rate cut 3 quarters from now really have much of an impact on what they think rates should be years from now?
My recommendation to novice investors is to purchase equities in reputable companies and keep onto them for as long as they remain reputable. Simply do this and disregard the market opinions and forecasts, which are often more entertaining than practical.
Although I primarily merely purchase and hold equities, my portfolio has been losing money for a time. Unfortunately, you will need to remain consistent and often rearrange your portfolio in order to be able to generate good gains.
The truth is, the role of an financial advisor can often be overlooked but should never be underestimated. After facing a significant portfolio loss in 2020 during the COVID pandemic while trying to manage my investments on my own, I decided to reach out to an investment advisor. At that time, I had about $126K left in my portfolio. Now, without having to lift a finger, I'm semi-retired, working only 7.5 hours a week, and I'm just 15% short of my $1 million retirement goal thanks to my subsequent investments.
Thanks for sharing your experience! I’ve been managing my portfolio myself, but it’s not working out. Do you have any recommendations for a good investment advisor? I could really use some help.
My CFA, Judith B Richards, is a renowned figure in her field. I recommend researching her name online; you’ll find all her credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, she is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.
I prefer unemployment rates to be closer to 3%. Employers are less likely to be abusive if they know there's a reasonable chance you can find another job.
@@norwalkiianNo. lower inflation loves lower unemployment. It means they can raise prices and keep wages lower since if you asked for a pay raise, they’ll fire you and hire someone else in at cheaper rates. Fewer workers helps tamp down inflation since if you post record profits, your workers will ask for more money or walk and you’re out the labor who works for you that gave you record profits. So you pay more to keep labor.
I also thinks it’s higher than they’re reporting currently. The unemployment rate and date is constantly revised down after the fact and I still hear how many new grads are struggling to find work. I’m sure there have also been people searching for work for over a year and this have been dropped from the reporting data.
The tarrifs portion was interesting and something I was thinking about. Since many economists have said that a number of Trump's plans would increase inflation, I was wondering if the fed changed it's rate cut plans for 2025 due to this expected inflation growth
Doubtful they would lower rates for an event that hasn’t happened, done by a guy who isn’t in office yet. These guys all know we are in a tough spot given the servicing of the national debt is now near the top of the governments expenses. HY was talking about a guy making minimum wage making a little more as a driver of inflation-what about the trillion in debt every hundred days or so added to the national debt…or ever increasing ceo pay?
@@pete5691the market and the FED are forward looking. The tanned wannabe dictator is promising tariffs and mass deportations. The markets are listening. This has nothing to do with the national debt.
I mean it literally has been... Just slightly ticked up a little bit. This is why they have to keep the higher a little bit longer next year. Because folks like you don't understand or remember his plan from a couple years ago. Gotta shepherd the herd.
Just to be clear: the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation is actually Core PCE, not Core CPI. PCE tends to be lower than CPI and has a less volatile housing component. Current Core PCE is 2.8% (as of Dec 19th, 2025), and is lower that the long-term historical average. This is probably why the Fed was comfortable with a modest cut.
That loan spiral is happening in the Netherlands. We have the highest inflation of Europa. Also our minimum wage is 2,5 times higher than the average in Spain . This is not sustainable.
I’ve been saying for years in the US that forcing a raise in minimum wage isn’t going to help anyone. Now everyone makes more money and still can’t afford to live on it. Thats the whole point of it being the minimum.
2:21 Were these considered to be a net increase in jobs? How many jobs were lost at the same time? How many people found new employment, but in a lesser job / greater job position?
So you’re going to judge bitcoin based off of your bad experience with a bitcoin transaction from 12 years ago and think that’s the case today technologically speaking ?
The "wage price spiral" is utter garbage. Business owners blaming workers who are giving their days away for inflation. Business owners need to accept less profit but the mantra is always "Pay yourself first" unless you are an employee. Then it is "Pay the boss first, last and always and BTW you are fired because profits".
My bank in Europe gives me 1.75% in interest rate , so as soon as my appartment is build, hopefully in February 2025, and my emergency fund is full, time to put it into etfs
In you need to find a different bank santander gives me 5% on a everyday savings account And monzo offers 4.10% interest every 6 months as long as it above £500
Inventory in cars & houses is up layoffs are consistent at the moment & even Buffett is selling off to double up on the come up hold off big to major purchases enjoy a steak.
3:40 And so it goes.... Employers feel pressured into raising wages to $15+ / Hr. and the next thing you know we are looking a Snickers bars that cost $1.50 each and Pop for $2 per 20 oz. bottle. I just saw a personal bag of Skittles this morning a our local Kwik Star with a shelf price of $3.69!
No one knows… I would speculate with such a significant drop, I’m thinking it should recover… historically, one day drops like that typically recover over the following weeks.
I'm amazed that in the us you can have a 30 year mortgage with fixed interest rate. Where I like, thought you could get a fixed rate. The back preserves the right to change the interest rate in the event the rate goes hirer than x for a period of time ...
Same here., I strongly agree that the Bitcoin ETFs approval will be greatly life opportunity for us, with my current portfolio of $102,500 from my investments with my personal financial advisor Steve Miley I totally agree with you😊
YES!!! That's exactly his name (Steve Miley) so many people have recommended highly about him and am just starting with him from Brisbane Australia...🇦🇺
He's my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many family's in the United states, he is licensed and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
A few days ago I saw one of your videos where you suggested "locking profits". I then sold half of my s&p 500 for me and my wife's. Today i see that it's down 4%! 🎉 now im wonfering if i should buy tomorrow at 4% discount or wait for it to tank a little more. Any thoughts?
Dude you’re hitting topics but then absolutely avoiding the actual issues and probabilities for each situation. No one wants a fucking mortgage anymore. They’re too expensive and now they know it. You can’t even get one cus the down payments are so high. It’s not the rate that needs to come down, its prices, and they are. Look at Texas and Florida. People are just holding their housing prices high and hoping they’ll get an offer but they won’t, and when they give that’s when the market will start crashing.
Great analysis, thank you! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
This video is very informative, but it would be better if you talked about real money. Talk about Elizzarda; it's real money every day. What you're discussing doesn't seem as cool
So little information. Maybe it's rage baiting. Who's presidency caused what? A rate cut? Arguably Biden's. As was covered in the video, jobs data is excellent and food prices aren't inflationary anymore. That's very good, and allowed the fed to cut rates. Or was it who caused inflation in the first place? Arguably Trump. Though most of it happened under Biden, inflation is a lagging indicator of bad choices made. Most happened under Trump, though Biden also contributed to the money printing with the final covid check. With how vague this comment is, though, there's plenty to fight over!
Please stay in your lane and stop talking about interest rates for housing. Realtors don’t shop for rates and unless you give them your personal information, everyone’s credit profile will be different. In addition, I’m willing to bet that your friend who got the 5.5% interest rates paid discount points to get that rate. You need to disclose that type of information or it will be considered bait and switch.
Just dca into it in 2025 if that happens. Between 401k-23,500.(not to mention match) Ira 7000, you have 30k you can move into the market this year tax sheltered.
Note: Today’s stocks traded down on the news that the Fed may only cut rates twice in 2025. This is not great in the short term because we were pricing in 3-4 rate cuts in 2025.
One thing I don’t understand is that the extra 0.25 or 0.5% rate cut (for 3-4 more cuts vs 2 more cuts) translates to -4% movement in the stock market. Will a rate cut 3 quarters from now really have much of an impact on what they think rates should be years from now?
Do you think the market overreacted to this news?
@@humphrey Last time they cut rates the market soared 😂
My recommendation to novice investors is to purchase equities in reputable companies and keep onto them for as long as they remain reputable. Simply do this and disregard the market opinions and forecasts, which are often more entertaining than practical.
Although I primarily merely purchase and hold equities, my portfolio has been losing money for a time. Unfortunately, you will need to remain consistent and often rearrange your portfolio in order to be able to generate good gains.
The truth is, the role of an financial advisor can often be overlooked but should never be underestimated. After facing a significant portfolio loss in 2020 during the COVID pandemic while trying to manage my investments on my own, I decided to reach out to an investment advisor. At that time, I had about $126K left in my portfolio. Now, without having to lift a finger, I'm semi-retired, working only 7.5 hours a week, and I'm just 15% short of my $1 million retirement goal thanks to my subsequent investments.
Thanks for sharing your experience! I’ve been managing my portfolio myself, but it’s not working out. Do you have any recommendations for a good investment advisor? I could really use some help.
My CFA, Judith B Richards, is a renowned figure in her field. I recommend researching her name online; you’ll find all her credentials and everything you need to work with a reliable professional. With many years of experience, she is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.
I prefer unemployment rates to be closer to 3%. Employers are less likely to be abusive if they know there's a reasonable chance you can find another job.
Yeah of course. Policymakers balance this desire against employer’s desire to operate profitably.
Higher employment = higher inflation, unfortunately.
@@norwalkiianNo. lower inflation loves lower unemployment. It means they can raise prices and keep wages lower since if you asked for a pay raise, they’ll fire you and hire someone else in at cheaper rates. Fewer workers helps tamp down inflation since if you post record profits, your workers will ask for more money or walk and you’re out the labor who works for you that gave you record profits. So you pay more to keep labor.
I also thinks it’s higher than they’re reporting currently. The unemployment rate and date is constantly revised down after the fact and I still hear how many new grads are struggling to find work.
I’m sure there have also been people searching for work for over a year and this have been dropped from the reporting data.
So glad I paid off my mortgage this week.
Nice 🎉
Congrats 🎈🎊🎉
Congrats! That's amazing!
@ thank you very much!
@@PattyCakeJake Congrats on paying off your mortgage. A huge burden off your shoulders.
The tarrifs portion was interesting and something I was thinking about. Since many economists have said that a number of Trump's plans would increase inflation, I was wondering if the fed changed it's rate cut plans for 2025 due to this expected inflation growth
perhaps, yeah!
Interesting take.
you may be onto something
Doubtful they would lower rates for an event that hasn’t happened, done by a guy who isn’t in office yet. These guys all know we are in a tough spot given the servicing of the national debt is now near the top of the governments expenses. HY was talking about a guy making minimum wage making a little more as a driver of inflation-what about the trillion in debt every hundred days or so added to the national debt…or ever increasing ceo pay?
@@pete5691the market and the FED are forward looking. The tanned wannabe dictator is promising tariffs and mass deportations. The markets are listening.
This has nothing to do with the national debt.
Good. They should raise rates
Agreed. I want rates high so people stop inflating our currency.
Remember when JP said it was “transitory”? Same thing with today’s statement. He’ll change his mind next year.
It was 2 years of bad inflation not a decade, I'd call that transitory, yes
I mean it literally has been... Just slightly ticked up a little bit.
This is why they have to keep the higher a little bit longer next year. Because folks like you don't understand or remember his plan from a couple years ago. Gotta shepherd the herd.
My portfolio got absolutely crushed today.
Same!
It will bounce back, always does.
Is probably getting even lower but leave the money there for couple years and this will be forgotten by then
This is when you buy more
Send me your biggest losers so I can buy some! Remember when crwd tanked 40% in August? 😎 its already bounced back to precrash prices
Have you done a video breaking down the best investment brokerages? Vanguard vs Fidelity vs Webull vs RobinHood, etc? Thank you
it's all preference tbh
Best time to buy is a sale. We're in it for the long
Great video Humphrey! Love the Delorian in the back
Right on!
When I first read The Secret Doctrine of Wealth, I realized how stuck I was in the system. It’s crazy how much it changed my perspective.
thank you for share!
goated book!
Thanks for the rundown. Very clear and succinct.
Just to be clear: the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation is actually Core PCE, not Core CPI. PCE tends to be lower than CPI and has a less volatile housing component. Current Core PCE is 2.8% (as of Dec 19th, 2025), and is lower that the long-term historical average. This is probably why the Fed was comfortable with a modest cut.
Rate cuts are supposed to be a good thing, but with inflation still creeping up, is anyone else worried about what comes next? 🤷♂
I see sooo many stocks on sale! Yay!
Word
"On sale" for 2% off all time highs... woo hoo...
@@jackcarlosyeah, bot behavior with these “stocks on sale” comments
Nothing is on sale 😭.
@@clh1866 not with that attitude
That loan spiral is happening in the Netherlands. We have the highest inflation of Europa. Also our minimum wage is 2,5 times higher than the average in Spain . This is not sustainable.
I’ve been saying for years in the US that forcing a raise in minimum wage isn’t going to help anyone. Now everyone makes more money and still can’t afford to live on it. Thats the whole point of it being the minimum.
@@Wassup81 Why do you not think so? We also have graaiflatie but that is just a part of it.
2:21 Were these considered to be a net increase in jobs? How many jobs were lost at the same time? How many people found new employment, but in a lesser job / greater job position?
I'm from 2 hours in the future. The market is spinning down the toilet 🚽
Oh no! Better sell everything! Sell sell sell!!!
@oli1682 well I'm from the future so, I already sold. But seriously. I'm not selling. Just saying.
Glad I did wait before I go and buy some gold haha
Hey question how do you cause a flash Crash and what does that have to do with the Canadian dollar and tariffs.
The wage cost and inflation reminds me of what happened post Covid with what seemed like hyperinflation
2:22 What the heck was that spike on November 19th?
Hiring for christmas
So why did the S&P fall off a cliff today?
Cus it does that practically every other week for the smallest reasons 😂
because warren buffet plays a huge influence. So when he pulled out his portion, it got others worried as well
@@UniversityOfMassachusets no he doesn't stop deluding yourself
So you’re going to judge bitcoin based off of your bad experience with a bitcoin transaction from 12 years ago and think that’s the case today technologically speaking ?
It’s still the same
So much for those post-election gains. Dammit
Lost everything I made from the trump bump plus some 😂😭
im still up post election!
Just wait. You’ll be fine and in the meantime, some things are on sale.
Still way up since the election here
Could you please explain how securities lending loan would work for housing market?
The "wage price spiral" is utter garbage. Business owners blaming workers who are giving their days away for inflation. Business owners need to accept less profit but the mantra is always "Pay yourself first" unless you are an employee. Then it is "Pay the boss first, last and always and BTW you are fired because profits".
Holy cow! Markets on sale! Time to go shopping.
Thxs for the info
The milk I have been buying for a while now went up 20 cents yesterday. 😅
Time to load up. Excellent buying opportunity.
My bank in Europe gives me 1.75% in interest rate , so as soon as my appartment is build, hopefully in February 2025, and my emergency fund is full, time to put it into etfs
@@Wassup81 yup mine sadly doesn't :/ but luckily i got a 1.77% mortgage rate for 30 years fixed on my housing loan
In you need to find a different bank santander gives me 5% on a everyday savings account
And monzo offers 4.10% interest every 6 months as long as it above £500
If you guys currently have a portfolio PLEASE LOOK INTO TAX LOSS HARVESTING IMMEDIATELY
My Marcus HYSA went under 4% last rate cut. 👎
massive sale on VOO
Just got a 5.15% rate a month ago
is this why the stock market tanked today? I LOST 15K!!!!!!!!!!!
tanked because of 2 expected cuts instead of 3-4
Everyone lost about 5-10% today.
It's only a real loss when you sell it. It always goes back up eventually.
Don't panic bro
It dropped 3% after moving up 25% on the year. You’re fine.
That’s all you lost? I would hate to be that poor.
-17K here
Inventory in cars & houses is up layoffs are consistent at the moment & even Buffett is selling off to double up on the come up hold off big to major purchases enjoy a steak.
Anyone who thought more than 2 cuts where going to happen was hoping and not a realistic investor or economist
I sold my wife to buy XAI110E©
If crypto is an acceptable form.of " legal " tender backed by the United States then I want my monopoly money legitimized
Final call for XAI110E© before it goes boom 3000%+
“Only Two Cuts in 2025!” - Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by 0.25% Explained - TH-cam
These moves somehow affect XAI110E© nowhere, obviously smart decisions prevail.
Elon knew the XAI110E© idea and the key changes coming with it, better be prepared for a large run
and the stonk market just drop 1000+ points!
prefer fancy insta Humphrey look, not the frugal youtube look
XAI110E© is my green one 🚀 they rock 🚀
3:40 And so it goes.... Employers feel pressured into raising wages to $15+ / Hr. and the next thing you know we are looking a Snickers bars that cost $1.50 each and Pop for $2 per 20 oz. bottle. I just saw a personal bag of Skittles this morning a our local Kwik Star with a shelf price of $3.69!
Pocketing XAI110E© with some swaps. XAI110E© will last guys
ADA exploding, XAI110E© is adapting
Great video. I am ballsdeep for XAI110E© and love your review for that as well
So do we see a continuation tomorrow or was this a one day black swan?
Everything is expensive anyway.
@@zepho100 I’m still up for the year but I’m debating how fast I should close on some leap options I have right now.
@ no one can answer that brother. Let’s see what tomorrow looks like
Anyone who tells you that they know for sure, is lying.
No one knows… I would speculate with such a significant drop, I’m thinking it should recover… historically, one day drops like that typically recover over the following weeks.
Having a national fund of crypto is a horrible idea. The american taxpayer will be on the hook if such a volatile asset like crypto tanks.
I'm amazed that in the us you can have a 30 year mortgage with fixed interest rate. Where I like, thought you could get a fixed rate. The back preserves the right to change the interest rate in the event the rate goes hirer than x for a period of time ...
Sounds like you live in Canada?
cheers!
yw
Thank you so much for a very informative video as always.
What do you think about precious metals?
I'm favoured financially with Bitcoin ETFs approval, Thank you buddy.$28,600 weekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy.
Same here., I strongly agree that the Bitcoin ETFs approval will be greatly life opportunity for us, with my current portfolio of $102,500 from my investments with my personal financial advisor Steve Miley I totally agree with you😊
YES!!! That's exactly his name (Steve Miley) so many people have recommended highly about him and am just starting with him from Brisbane Australia...🇦🇺
He's my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many family's in the United states, he is licensed and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.
The very first time we tried, we invested $1000 and after a week, we received 4500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
Steve Miley has really set the standard for others to follow, we love him in Canada🇨🇦as he has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
Getting another rate cute and 2 more to come "news" made the market look foolish🎉
BRETT and XAI110E© are ATH kings. Thank you for making my day with your POV
A few days ago I saw one of your videos where you suggested "locking profits". I then sold half of my s&p 500 for me and my wife's. Today i see that it's down 4%! 🎉 now im wonfering if i should buy tomorrow at 4% discount or wait for it to tank a little more. Any thoughts?
MISSED U ❤
same
Dude you’re hitting topics but then absolutely avoiding the actual issues and probabilities for each situation. No one wants a fucking mortgage anymore. They’re too expensive and now they know it. You can’t even get one cus the down payments are so high. It’s not the rate that needs to come down, its prices, and they are. Look at Texas and Florida. People are just holding their housing prices high and hoping they’ll get an offer but they won’t, and when they give that’s when the market will start crashing.
With ADA and SOL still in my bags I see the most improvement on XAI110E©, great pick
10 or 20k usd for a coffee 😂 damn
XAI110E© will 50x after the big listings confirmed, most are ready
You think XAI110E© is a joke? In two days you will be mad then
Picked up my XAI110E© at $0.3 already running to $1. Life saver!
Trump will not like this. What will he do??
Great analysis, thank you! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
How long can we bring XAI110E© up?
Do you think BTC will break back? Any thoughts for XAI110E©?
Is XAI110E© still usable? I wanna have some of that
Reason everyone wild on XAI110E©: Elon Musk, as usual
Been collecting the XAI110E© this cycle as that has the right place in this time
The rates should not have cut at all. We need a decade of pain to correct the rona ignorance
I am comitted with XAI110E© and a bit of ADA, too much potential
PEPE, SHIB, DOGE all memes dead but XAI110E© thrives
bs
The XAI110E© uses different AI which has not been used by anyone, it makes sense and it should allow steady growth with no human interference needed
Will ETH 2x? 3x? Maybe. But add two more 00 to that for XAI110E© having 200x or better
Swapping ETH to XAI110E© clean decision, let's go
How is XAI110E© better than anything else right now?
They’d have cut further if a Democrat won guaranteed
Hm
because you wouldn’t have had the reckless tariffs. So far it’s just talk that may not be carried out hopefully.
Yeah, look where the last Democrat got us…
XAI110E© gonna go on a run, all the way UP!
Grab a XAI110E© a day keep the doctor away
Hopefully someone beats some sense into Trump and he goes back on the tariffs
his ex Cabinet Rex Tillerson called Trump "a f'cking m o r o n"
Can anyone explain XAI110E©? Everwhere XAI110E©
This video is very informative, but it would be better if you talked about real money. Talk about Elizzarda; it's real money every day. What you're discussing doesn't seem as cool
Bot
With BTC climbing the ladder XAI110E© is even higher
Another day another quick rise for XAI110E©, not even kidding
Saylors next love to BTC? XAI110E©
Lets not forget who’s presidency caused this
*popcorn at the ready, waiting for all the rage comments to pour in
Trump's tariffs right?
Truth!
@@ROBSAB055ah yes cause the inflation caused by Biden and Harris arent the problem ever.
So little information. Maybe it's rage baiting. Who's presidency caused what? A rate cut? Arguably Biden's. As was covered in the video, jobs data is excellent and food prices aren't inflationary anymore. That's very good, and allowed the fed to cut rates. Or was it who caused inflation in the first place? Arguably Trump. Though most of it happened under Biden, inflation is a lagging indicator of bad choices made. Most happened under Trump, though Biden also contributed to the money printing with the final covid check. With how vague this comment is, though, there's plenty to fight over!
Abolish the Federal Reserve.
Why copy thumbnail from Graham Stephan?
If rest is going down then XAI110E© is somehow going up
All guys stacking XAI110E© before next bull are smart apes for sure
Bro how are they all buying XAI110E© quickly
Please stay in your lane and stop talking about interest rates for housing. Realtors don’t shop for rates and unless you give them your personal information, everyone’s credit profile will be different.
In addition, I’m willing to bet that your friend who got the 5.5% interest rates paid discount points to get that rate. You need to disclose that type of information or it will be considered bait and switch.
Ready for the crash???? Coming in 3...2.... this bubble gonna pop 🤦♂️
Been hearing this for decades
Just dca into it in 2025 if that happens. Between 401k-23,500.(not to mention match) Ira 7000, you have 30k you can move into the market this year tax sheltered.
Everything crashes my guy it about not being Greedy lock in profits