I was happy that the panel didn't seriously consider the Japanese invading Hawaii, or even more ridiculously, the west coast. The logistical effort and manpower commitment for the Japanese would have enormous, while on the American side the islands could have been greatly reinforced with troops, aircraft, and submarines as part of the "hold the line" strategy that was discussed.
You're right. If the Japanese had taken Midway, Hawaii would have been reinforced to an extreme. All things considered, the Japanese would have gone back to their efforts to cut of Australia. The logistics favored them and they only were deterred the last time by the U.S. carriers. Great podcast. Entirly credible.
The analyses I've read about "Invade Pearl Harbor" scenarios boil down to: the IJN had the logistics to do either the invasion of the Dutch East Indies (with its crucial oil fields) *or* of Hawaii - they didn't have the shipping or supply capabilities to do both. Even keeping the farthest outposts of their defensive perimeter supplied was a task the IJN too often failed at - after a successful invasion, which was no sure thing, trying to keep Hawaii secure and supplied would likely have been too much for the Japanese to manage.
🙋🏽♂️I will 2nd you on this. Invasion of Hawaii never makes any sense. It's too far. Too well defended with an entire infantry division. And has a huge civilian population. Also, we are talking more than just Oahu. The logistics don't work. The manpower doesn't work. In practice the Japanese barely were able to support Wake Island. Even if they take Midway; US submarine forces from Pearl harbor will blockade.
Excellent discussion. Was surprised they did not discuss that both side's submarines were basically unheard of during the battle. Of course, Nautilus may have precipitated the IJN destroyer high-tailing it back to its fleet (for McClusky's DBs to see and tail), and an IJN sub finished off Yorktown and sunk Hammann, but both sides sortied considerable submarine assets to the area prior the attack, yet neither side made much contact during the actual battle.
For anyone not familiar with Montemayor's channel, his videos on this very topic, as well as other Pacific operations of WWII, are superlative masterpieces.
John Parshall is great! He was kind enough to respond to an email from me once and shared some thoughts at a professional level as to becoming a historian. John, if you’re reading this, thank you, your email meant a lot. Jim
Jon Parshall is an incredible historian, his book Shattered Sword is really good and so in depth, almost a courtroom like analysis of the battle. He also comes across so well in film this and in other podcast appearances
I can tell you how Americans would have reacted to a loss. Anger and resolve. The rage after Pearl Harbor, had not dissipated. My Grandfathers agreed to the ravenous need for revenge. Both fought from December 7 to VJ day. My maternal Grandfather was on the Light Cruiser Phoenix. My Paternal Grandfather was at the Brooklyn Navy Yard.
What really happened at Midway, with the Yorktown getting repaired in two days, last minute preparations, dive bombers screaming toward their targets might have been rejected as a plot for a movie for being too unrealistic and in the realm of fantasy. But it really happened.
Now, if the signal had been among routine traffic with a like, The place the Americans call midway claims a water shortage It might tell that we are monitoring their signals but that is expected. By sending it in a low quality code you mean that it is not important. Sent a different signal referring to location in the message in high quality. And don't say what it is. In digital storage you find letters and numbers crushed together but because you know what should occur where it is easily read.
The man who made the “Courageous decision” to attack early and at range wasn’t Spruance it was Frank Jack Fletcher who was in overall command at Midway. Fletcher was in command of US carriers during the first three carrier on carrier battles in history taking on the IJN at the absolute height of their powers and coming away the winner 3-0. It’s criminal to talk about this battle and not even mention the American Admiral who was in command and who performed brilliantly.
There were FIVE Essex-class fleet carriers already being built on Dec. 7, 1941, though 2 of those had only been laid down on Dec. 1. Essex herself was commissioned on Dec. 31, 1942 and there were 7 Essex-class carriers by the end of 1943, augmented by 9 Independence-class light carriers. When they arrived with any number of them, as they did in Nov. '43 at Rabaul and again in Feb. '44 at Truk they 'reduced' the enemy (a lovely military euphemism) significantly. Those were large forward logistics bases for the Japanese, and their loss meant that a lot of Japanese on the front lines weren't going to get supplies anytime soon. The Americans played a top-notch logistics game too. The speed with which Seabees could built an Advance Base to support their forces at the front was awesome. Look up Espiritu Santo WW2, supporting Guadalcanal and the Papua/New Guinea campaigns. Incredible stuff.
I had never seen anything from your channel, before today. But as soon as I saw the picture of John Parschall, I knew I was going to get accurate information.
"...even if it had lost catastrophically at the Battle of Midway, the United States Navy still would have broken even with Japan in carriers and naval air power by about September 1943. Nine months later, by the middle of 1944, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed a nearly two-to-one superiority in carrier aircraft capacity! Not only that, but with her newer, better aircraft designs, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed not only a substantial numeric, but also a critical qualitative advantage as well, starting in late 1943." Aircraft carriers built, 1941 - 1945 US: 141 Japan: 17 Aircraft produced, 1941-1945: US: 324,750 Japan: 76,320.
@@Conn30Mtenor By the end of 1943 the USN had about triple that number of carriers in service. And Essex, Independence and Yorktown were IN the Pacific by August of 1943. Do better research
Neptune's Inferno is another great book about the air and naval battles around Guadalcanal, it goes into great detail about each naval encounter and how air power plays such a important role.
I kind of disagree. Japan couldn't have logistically supported an invasion of Hawaii at that distance from the home islands. They couldn't even regularly supply the islands they took during the Midway operation (Kiska and Attu), and those are a shorter distance from Japan. Midway, as a base for a Hawaiian invasion would have been totally inadequate. No major harbor or facilities and Japan didn't exactly have the equivalent of the Seabees. Having taken Midway, they might have found it constantly under aerial attack by land-based bombers from Hawaii and surrounded by US submarines.
You reached the same conclusion that most of the Japanese leadership did. They could take Midway, but taking Hawaii was almost impossible to take. Senior Japanese leadership also believed that Midway was likely to be retaken fairly quickly as they were not going to be able to logistically sustain it as while Midway was within range of Hawaii for Japanese aircraft, the American heavy bombers were within range of Midway from Hawaii.
With no one to truly challenge Japan they would've had breathing room to build train use newly acquired resources it would've been a true disaster. Now no doubt it would eventually succumb to US industrial might but at what cost. Not to mention how our indespencible efforts in Europe would've had to be put on the back burner at least.
I dont agree with that. They had the ability to mobilize troops to Hawaii, they choose not to drop them. The island had all the resources they needed to stay firm. The oil and fuel would have sustained the IJN while cutting the US's ability to field deep PAC opps.
@@aurorajones8481 What oil and fuel? The stuff in Pearl harbor? Do you think that stuff would have been left intact for the Japanese to capture? Not to mention any significant infrastructure?
@@matthewnoto9380Yeah, it would definitely have not been captured, a la Mayakop oil fields in USSR. The biggest impact would have been on the operations of US naval forces as it was THE major fuel node. Tbh, if the pearl harbor strike concentrated on fuel depots instead of ships, the resulting damage would have been immeasurably worse. At least a year's delay of operations in the Pacific for starters....
I really like the parts of these videos when you go off and do some wild thinking about the possibilities if things had gone differently. It makes it clearer to us, looking back, at how crucial these battles really were.
I was looking this morning at the order of battle again and reminding myself of some of the oddities. While Hornet and Enterprise had intact air groups (VF-6, VT-6, VB-6, and VS-6 for CV-6 Enterprise and likewise for Hornet), Yorktown (CV-5) had a composite air group that included VF, VS, and VT-3 from the Saratoga (CV-3). The only squadron from Yorktowns own group is VB-5, while the Saratoga squadrons had apparently been training in San Diego for a while waiting for January's toroedo hit to be repaired. I was also thinking about the Flight to Nowhere episode, and a question occured to me that I dont remember seeing in Shattered Sword (I obviously need to reread it). Fletcher was in overall command, correct? So when Fletcher issued and signaled an order to attack the carriers that had been spotted, did that go from Yorktown to Enterprise to Hornet, or from Yorktown to Enterprise and Hornet simultaneously? In other words, were Mitscher and Ring ignoring the brand new Spruance (because the order was telated through Enterprise), or were they ignoring the other black shoe admiral who had experience in carrier battles, Fletcher (an order from Yorktown to Enterprise and Hornet simultaneously)?
In coral sea, the Japanese had the light carrier sunk, shoksku heavily damaged. The zuikaku received no damage. But her air wing was decimated. So she was out of action because her air group needed replacements in pilots. Not because she was damaged
Yeah, and the Japanese seem to have had a weird system around that too. In the USN, we would have transferred planes and pilots from somewhere else to fill out a carriers air complement so it could go back out to sea with a full complement ASAP. In the IJN, they seem to have largely viewed their squadrons and pilots as part of the ship and refused to do much/any reallocation.
Looking forward to your Undone version of the attack on Pearl Harbor. What if the Japanese fleet is detected before 12/7? What if the radar operators realize those are not B17’s to the North. If the alarm had been raised in time, how would the Hawaiian defenses have fared? All the fighters lined up in rows to be destroyed on the ground are instead scrambled to meet the Japanese in the air? Great work.
I highly recommend reading the book Shattered Sword by Jonathan Parshall and Anthony Tully. It’s an in depth look at the Japanese Navy through journals and interviews on the Battle of Midway. In it, they discuss the pacific strategy.
41:48 Yak and La fighters, and Il-2 are great examples. There is countless variants of those ac. When Soviets got more and more lend lease aluminium, part by part the wooden parts were replaced by metal.
If you can do Napoléon vs Wellington and Blucher at The Battle of waterloo make sure your experts are thoroughly read up. I don't want to hear that Bonny waited for the ground to dry up when his cannons couldn't be dragged across muddy wet fields quick enough
Sarah Paine’s The Wars for Asia gives a good account of Japanese thinking that systemically misunderstood how its own harsh actions brought down surprising wrath from the foe it expected to bargain with.
Thanks for the recommendation! Just a couple of months ago I finished a book that advertised "from the Japanese leadership position", because I wanted to learn more about their end-game. How did they think it was going to turn out? Frankly I was disappointed in the book. Whatever the high command was "thinking", what were they saying? Did they send serious diplomatic missions to the U.S. about ceasing hostilities and establishing detente?
After centuries of Western colonization Asian countries would have welcomed a powerful Japan. The Japanese, instead, became even worse oppressors. In a way China is repeating that mistake today.
I liked this video's informative content. The alt-history discussions can be more revealing than the discussion of the actual events. I was amused by Jon Parshall's "Americanisms" though. I wonder if the other two British hosts understood slangs like "get out of Dodge". (Yes, I'm American too, but the two hosts were not).
I don't know if (having watched to34:50) if you bring it up but you skip the idea of the battle without the yorktown (?) the one they quickly repaired. what would have happened if they didnt have it and they went to the battle with only the 2 carriers. You do mention they were willing to do it with only the 2.
I always wondered about Midway, how the battle was won by a thread, however I do believe in the inevitability of the US vistory and the use of the Atomic Bomb. Great show gentlemen, I love alternate history!
When the one Japanese search 🔦 plane was delayed 4 June why didn’t Nagumo just dispatch another? He had over 200 so why not plug that gap instead of waiting a crucial 30+ minutes?
Japanese procedure was to use the cruisers' float planes for search, without using any of the carrier planes. I recall an exception or two but basically that was the accepted method. So the fact that there were a couple hundred planes theoretically available for search didn't matter.
Please do some of the great battles of WW1. 1918 Spring Offensive, Brusilov Offensive, Gallipoli, etc. WW1 is way more strategically interesting from a what if scenario.
Bold! Daring! Remember though that Nimitz (who was in charge of fleet personnel in Washington before being sent out to the Pacific) KNEW about the massive buildup of the US fleet coming in the next 6-9 months. He could afford to take the chance of this fleeting opportunity.
"Easily lost"? Hardly. The US had all the important advantages on its side. 1. They knew they were coming and where. 2. The US had a large advantage in fleet attack aircraft. 3. The Japanese were seriously hindered by the expenditure of fuel to get them to Midway with no ability to refuel and thus limited ability to maneuver. 4. The US had superior technology for long-range reconnaissance in the Cataline PBYs. 5. The US had radar while the Japanese did not. 6. The US navy can pick its optimum time to strike.
@@colinhunt4057 There was an early computer game involving the Battle of Midway. A friend of mine played it as a kid; he said it was almost impossible to win as the US. It was a miraculous victory. The pilots who ultimately hit the carriers were lucky to even find the Japanese fleet. Japan had the superior aircraft. The US lost many pilots because of inferior planes. The one Japanese reconnaissance plane who could have spotted the US fleet earlier had mechanical problems. It was pure luck that American fighters and bombers came into the carrier attack piecemeal and brought the Japanese air cover down to the deck, and they couldn't make it back to attack the bombers who finally were successful. Many US bombs missed. Many US torpedoes were duds. The Japanese overly complicated their attack plan and split up their fleet into 4 distinct groups, diluting their effectiveness and failing to protect their carriers. The US got very lucky.
Those interested in a bit of history on RA Dr Chris Parry, watch the video 'BBC Sailor 06of12 1. Officer Territory'. from 1977 when he was a young sub Lieutenant. Very interesting look back in time.
As an American, I wish to commend the two Brits in this episode for persuading Dr. Parshall to speculate more broadly than has been his wont about the possibilities if things had gone differently. In general, Parshall has been reluctant to concede that the Americans could have fared far worse if things had unfolded differently. Thanks for loosening him up, and I daresay that Parshall probably appreciates it in retrospect.
No mention of the Doolittle Raid. Would the Japanese have bothered with Midway if not for the Raid? I think they would have been involved consolidating their recent acquisitions instead of expanding their defense perimeter to the east.
Doolittle was not a motivator for Yamamoto and the Combined Fleet staff. The Midway plan had already been conceived and put together beforehand. It was already in the stages of being proposed "up the chain" in Tokyo, and was likely to be approved in any case. What Doolittle DID do, I think, was to help neutralize whatever objections remained elsewhere in the IJN (even Yamamoto had a boss, after all), and even more importantly, the skeptical and grudging Army. The Navy-vs-Army divide in senior Japanese decision-making is, I think, often glossed over in these types of discussions.
@@cragnamorra TY for the reply. It was comprehensive and informative. I was aware of the conflict between the IJN and the IJA but was not aware that Midway was in the mill prior to Doolittle.
Churchill was in Washington about July or so when he got the news about Tobruk. FDR asked "what can we do to help" Don't think FDR asks that question if the Japanese won at Midway.
My sense whether Admiral Spruance or Fletcher was in charge both would have decided to retreat had the Battle of Midway had gone south. They had Admiral Nimitz instructions.
I've seen videos and read essays concerning this subject, and I find their arguments less than convincing. Japan did not have the logistical capability to consistently resupply outposts at the edges of territory they historically did control- and that was with minimal interdiction by Allied forces. Had the US lost the sea battle at Midway and Japan was able to invade and conquer Midway, they would have had a very small island outpost another several hundred miles east of Guam. However many troops deployed there would have needed food. The planes would have needed gas and ordinance. This would have had to be delivered several thousand miles from their home islands or about a thousand miles from their advanced bases at Rabaul and Truk. A handful of submarines could have made resupply VERY difficult. And an invasion of Hawaii would have magnified exponentially the difficulty Japan would have experienced invading and holding Midway.
I once interviewed the guy up at Nebraska Avenue who kept all those intercepts. I asked him if I could see the intercept of the Japanese message about AF having a fresh water problem. He looked at me and smiled, then shook his head. I asked why, since everything else was available. He admitted they didn't have it! I asked if it had been somehow lost or if the story was cover and deception. Shook his head. No idea.
Saratoga arrives in Pearl Harbor like on the 6th. And had to refuel and rearm there. It wouldn't have reached Midway till the 9th. They wound up transporting planes to both Hornet and Enterprise. Some of her aircraft also go to reinforcing Midway.
10:30 That's an unusual Nimitz photo, in profile. I don't think have seen that one before. Kinda casts a bit different aspect of his appearance. Nice inclusion.
I've read from a interview that McCluskey was going to go in the direction of the destroyer anyway. Seeing it just confirmed his decision to continue the search in that direction.
@@johnpombrio he stated he was going to keep going regardless of fuel. He was determined to find the Japanese carriers. I believe that he would have done it.
Great channel. Would love a discussion on if Confederate strategy, in the spring of 1863 after Lee's victory at Chancellorsville, had of focused on the western theater, staying on the defensive in the east and reinforcing the west against the offensive moves of Grant. Basically I'm referencing the famous Confederate White House meeting of Davis, his cabinet, and Lee where the decision was made to focus east and invade Pennsylvania over the objections of Postmaster Reagan. What is the likely outcome if a large segment of the Army of Northern Virginia (ANV) had been sent to deal with Grant? A fascinating scenario is, what if Jackson had not have died after Chancellorsville? What if Lee had assigned Jackson and his ANV corps west to deal with Grant. What if Lee himself headed west? Could Grant have been defeated outside of Vicksburg? If so, what would be been the implications?
Great job, fascinating discussion on the Battle of Midway. You folks have to do the Battle of Stalingrad. This was a pivotal battle in WW2, and initiated the downfall of the Third Reich.
God idea. What if Hitler had left the operations in Russia to the genereals. Had the generals entering the Caucusus had full authority over their forces, could they have reached the oilfields, or at least denied them to the Soviets?
If the USN had not broken the IJN code, would the IJN have shown up at Midway with 6 carriers as planned, and the USN not been in place to defend Miday?
An important note the American should have made. Yorktown was a direct sister to Enterprise so looked very much a like. Hornet was also laid out similarly so it would have been easy to mistake them. I'd hope he'd have mentioned that
i realize that this is three months after the initial presentation, but none of these commentators mentioned the fact that the Japanese did capture American territory in Alaska during this campaign. While Nimitz was willing to write off Attu and Kiska in the short term. The potential of Alaska as a launching pad for both sides was not lost. For example, look at the construction of the Alcan highway as a potential source of supplies for either Alaskan defense or a launching pad for offensive operations.
Thank you for the discussion. Love Johnathan Parshall's presentation. The alternatives, there are thousands of possibilities. Within two years America will have 2x-3x the fleet the Japanese have
Same difference? If there was no one seeing the dive bombers at Angels 20, no one would have directed them to ATTEMPT to attack (climb up and/or attack when diving). Japan had ship board radar, just not on their carriers yet.
Shgould the IJN played a waiting game (much less prestige and military-polictico influence of course especially with 'bidding' for resources), beefed up their aviation on the outlying islands together with preserving their precious naval-aviation (carriers) and targeted the USs supply chain and the immediate seas around the Northen coastline of Australia with their subs, the USM island-hopping strategy would have taken years and at a much higher cost. Without the Manhatten Project, Japan would have remained very powerful.
If the Japanese had won at Midway, the US would still have shown up off the coast of Japan in 1945 with 100 carriers, and would have erased whatever resistance the Japanese could have offered.
I'd always thought that for the Japanese the Aleutian campaign was just to draw the attention away from Midway. The Japanese never committed an major forces there and abandoned it fairly quickly.
I've read that a few times but it makes no sense to me. If your operational goal is to draw the enemy fleet into a major action, why launch a diversion at all? The Japanese *wanted* the US to give battle. A diversion, if successful, reduced the odds of that happening. It also required the Japanese to divide their own forces, giving them IIRC one less carrier for Midway itself.
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Can you please do a "What if Japan invaded Hawaii during Pearl Harbor"?
My dad was there
I was happy that the panel didn't seriously consider the Japanese invading Hawaii, or even more ridiculously, the west coast. The logistical effort and manpower commitment for the Japanese would have enormous, while on the American side the islands could have been greatly reinforced with troops, aircraft, and submarines as part of the "hold the line" strategy that was discussed.
You're right. If the Japanese had taken Midway, Hawaii would have been reinforced to an extreme. All things considered, the Japanese would have gone back to their efforts to cut of Australia. The logistics favored them and they only were deterred the last time by the U.S. carriers. Great podcast. Entirly credible.
Wow you should be a military advisor! 😂
They did it to China.
The analyses I've read about "Invade Pearl Harbor" scenarios boil down to: the IJN had the logistics to do either the invasion of the Dutch East Indies (with its crucial oil fields) *or* of Hawaii - they didn't have the shipping or supply capabilities to do both. Even keeping the farthest outposts of their defensive perimeter supplied was a task the IJN too often failed at - after a successful invasion, which was no sure thing, trying to keep Hawaii secure and supplied would likely have been too much for the Japanese to manage.
🙋🏽♂️I will 2nd you on this. Invasion of Hawaii never makes any sense. It's too far. Too well defended with an entire infantry division. And has a huge civilian population. Also, we are talking more than just Oahu. The logistics don't work. The manpower doesn't work. In practice the Japanese barely were able to support Wake Island. Even if they take Midway; US submarine forces from Pearl harbor will blockade.
Excellent discussion. Was surprised they did not discuss that both side's submarines were basically unheard of during the battle. Of course, Nautilus may have precipitated the IJN destroyer high-tailing it back to its fleet (for McClusky's DBs to see and tail), and an IJN sub finished off Yorktown and sunk Hammann, but both sides sortied considerable submarine assets to the area prior the attack, yet neither side made much contact during the actual battle.
For anyone not familiar with Montemayor's channel, his videos on this very topic, as well as other Pacific operations of WWII, are superlative masterpieces.
I was gonna say the same thing and provide a link lol
The Midway battle from the Japanese perspective is excellent, the absolute best.
@@dongilleo9743 💯
Absolutly.
Montemayor does a great job highlighting the critical decisions of Admiral Nagumo, and how they weren't as simple as is sometimes assumed.
John Parshall is great! He was kind enough to respond to an email from me once and shared some thoughts at a professional level as to becoming a historian. John, if you’re reading this, thank you, your email meant a lot.
Jim
Jon Parshall is an incredible historian, his book Shattered Sword is really good and so in depth, almost a courtroom like analysis of the battle. He also comes across so well in film this and in other podcast appearances
Great round table gentlemen, and Jon's shirts RULE!
Yes, it's *Jon* .
I can tell you how Americans would have reacted to a loss.
Anger and resolve. The rage after Pearl Harbor, had not dissipated. My Grandfathers agreed to the ravenous need for revenge. Both fought from December 7 to VJ day.
My maternal Grandfather was on the Light Cruiser Phoenix.
My Paternal Grandfather was at the Brooklyn Navy Yard.
My father was a Seabee on Guadalcanal.
@@johnpombrio Respect. The only job tougher, was medical corpsman.
What really happened at Midway, with the Yorktown getting repaired in two days, last minute preparations, dive bombers screaming toward their targets might have been rejected as a plot for a movie for being too unrealistic and in the realm of fantasy.
But it really happened.
The men of the Vestal were there doing there bit. Ton for ton one of the most important ship in the Pacific
Movies are unrealistic by definition
@blockmasterscott I think the US Had a little Help from above?
Now, if the signal had been among routine traffic with a like, The place the Americans call midway claims a water shortage
It might tell that we are monitoring their signals but that is expected.
By sending it in a low quality code you mean that it is not important.
Sent a different signal referring to location in the message in high quality. And don't say what it is.
In digital storage you find letters and numbers crushed together but because you know what should occur where it is easily read.
Outstanding show with two excellent historians! Always enjoy listening to Jon, and love his sense of humor.
The man who made the “Courageous decision” to attack early and at range wasn’t Spruance it was Frank Jack Fletcher who was in overall command at Midway.
Fletcher was in command of US carriers during the first three carrier on carrier battles in history taking on the IJN at the absolute height of their powers and coming away the winner 3-0.
It’s criminal to talk about this battle and not even mention the American Admiral who was in command and who performed brilliantly.
"Experts" lol
Who might that be?
thx 4 clarification.
Fletcher was in overall command but really he did SOP nothing more.
@@julesscangojr.35I find this group..... Wanting. To be kind
It would have delayed the inevitable. The Japanese stood no chance.
Rate of building new ships, including aircraft carriers, would inevitably turn the tide.
There were FIVE Essex-class fleet carriers already being built on Dec. 7, 1941, though 2 of those had only been laid down on Dec. 1. Essex herself was commissioned on Dec. 31, 1942 and there were 7 Essex-class carriers by the end of 1943, augmented by 9 Independence-class light carriers. When they arrived with any number of them, as they did in Nov. '43 at Rabaul and again in Feb. '44 at Truk they 'reduced' the enemy (a lovely military euphemism) significantly. Those were large forward logistics bases for the Japanese, and their loss meant that a lot of Japanese on the front lines weren't going to get supplies anytime soon.
The Americans played a top-notch logistics game too. The speed with which Seabees could built an Advance Base to support their forces at the front was awesome. Look up Espiritu Santo WW2, supporting Guadalcanal and the Papua/New Guinea campaigns. Incredible stuff.
Your content here has earned you a subscription. Keep up the interesting work
Anything with John is worth listening to. Shattered Sword is a magnificent history of Midway.
Thoroughly satisfying, you gained a new subscriber.
I had never seen anything from your channel, before today. But as soon as I saw the picture of John Parschall, I knew I was going to get accurate information.
Good job, subscription worthy. I'm pleased I came back and gave the format another go.
Thank you, very pleased to have you on board!
"...even if it had lost catastrophically at the Battle of Midway, the United States Navy still would have broken even with Japan in carriers and naval air power by about September 1943. Nine months later, by the middle of 1944, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed a nearly two-to-one superiority in carrier aircraft capacity! Not only that, but with her newer, better aircraft designs, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed not only a substantial numeric, but also a critical qualitative advantage as well, starting in late 1943."
Aircraft carriers built, 1941 - 1945 US: 141 Japan: 17
Aircraft produced, 1941-1945: US: 324,750 Japan: 76,320.
More like 1944. By the end of 1943 there are only two new USN CV's in theatre; Essex and Intrepid
@@Conn30Mtenorand how many escort or light carriers?
@@leeshackelford7517 And those CVEs proved there worth time and time again in the Pacific.
@@leeshackelford7517 about a dozen. But they were easy to sink.
@@Conn30Mtenor By the end of 1943 the USN had about triple that number of carriers in service. And Essex, Independence and Yorktown were IN the Pacific by August of 1943. Do better research
Shattered Sword is a great book. Don’t miss a chance to pick it up
I have both the paperback and Kindle versions. Outstanding read.
I have a signed copy
Neptune's Inferno is another great book about the air and naval battles around Guadalcanal, it goes into great detail about each naval encounter and how air power plays such a important role.
One of the best shows on Midway I’ve ever seen. Mahalo and aloha from Hawaii. 🤙 This channel deserves to grow exponentially. Subscribed and liked. 😉👍
Excellent analysis. I learned stuff
This is a brilliant channel. I'm so glad I've found it. Keep it up!!!
High quality production. 👍
Outstanding presentation! I love this stuff. The counter factual/ historical fiction discussion is my favorite part. Well done! 🎉👏🏼👍🏻👊🏼
Excellent discussion. I look forward to more content! I humbly submit the battle of Actium for a future episode.
I kind of disagree. Japan couldn't have logistically supported an invasion of Hawaii at that distance from the home islands. They couldn't even regularly supply the islands they took during the Midway operation (Kiska and Attu), and those are a shorter distance from Japan.
Midway, as a base for a Hawaiian invasion would have been totally inadequate. No major harbor or facilities and Japan didn't exactly have the equivalent of the Seabees.
Having taken Midway, they might have found it constantly under aerial attack by land-based bombers from Hawaii and surrounded by US submarines.
You reached the same conclusion that most of the Japanese leadership did. They could take Midway, but taking Hawaii was almost impossible to take. Senior Japanese leadership also believed that Midway was likely to be retaken fairly quickly as they were not going to be able to logistically sustain it as while Midway was within range of Hawaii for Japanese aircraft, the American heavy bombers were within range of Midway from Hawaii.
With no one to truly challenge Japan they would've had breathing room to build train use newly acquired resources it would've been a true disaster. Now no doubt it would eventually succumb to US industrial might but at what cost. Not to mention how our indespencible efforts in Europe would've had to be put on the back burner at least.
I dont agree with that. They had the ability to mobilize troops to Hawaii, they choose not to drop them. The island had all the resources they needed to stay firm. The oil and fuel would have sustained the IJN while cutting the US's ability to field deep PAC opps.
@@aurorajones8481 What oil and fuel? The stuff in Pearl harbor? Do you think that stuff would have been left intact for the Japanese to capture? Not to mention any significant infrastructure?
@@matthewnoto9380Yeah, it would definitely have not been captured, a la Mayakop oil fields in USSR. The biggest impact would have been on the operations of US naval forces as it was THE major fuel node. Tbh, if the pearl harbor strike concentrated on fuel depots instead of ships, the resulting damage would have been immeasurably worse. At least a year's delay of operations in the Pacific for starters....
I really like the parts of these videos when you go off and do some wild thinking about the possibilities if things had gone differently. It makes it clearer to us, looking back, at how crucial these battles really were.
I was looking this morning at the order of battle again and reminding myself of some of the oddities. While Hornet and Enterprise had intact air groups (VF-6, VT-6, VB-6, and VS-6 for CV-6 Enterprise and likewise for Hornet), Yorktown (CV-5) had a composite air group that included VF, VS, and VT-3 from the Saratoga (CV-3). The only squadron from Yorktowns own group is VB-5, while the Saratoga squadrons had apparently been training in San Diego for a while waiting for January's toroedo hit to be repaired.
I was also thinking about the Flight to Nowhere episode, and a question occured to me that I dont remember seeing in Shattered Sword (I obviously need to reread it). Fletcher was in overall command, correct? So when Fletcher issued and signaled an order to attack the carriers that had been spotted, did that go from Yorktown to Enterprise to Hornet, or from Yorktown to Enterprise and Hornet simultaneously? In other words, were Mitscher and Ring ignoring the brand new Spruance (because the order was telated through Enterprise), or were they ignoring the other black shoe admiral who had experience in carrier battles, Fletcher (an order from Yorktown to Enterprise and Hornet simultaneously)?
Good mixing of in-studio appearance and remote Face Time computer screen
Very informative. Really enjoyed this. Thank you.
Excellent presentation gentlemen. I have subscribed
What a great channel, right up my alley! Subscribed
In coral sea, the Japanese had the light carrier sunk, shoksku heavily damaged. The zuikaku received no damage. But her air wing was decimated. So she was out of action because her air group needed replacements in pilots. Not because she was damaged
Yeah, and the Japanese seem to have had a weird system around that too. In the USN, we would have transferred planes and pilots from somewhere else to fill out a carriers air complement so it could go back out to sea with a full complement ASAP. In the IJN, they seem to have largely viewed their squadrons and pilots as part of the ship and refused to do much/any reallocation.
@@ColonelSandersLite exactly. In midway, saratogas torpedo squadron joined Yorktown to replace her losses at coral sea.
I have strong doubts that the Japanese had the logistical capability to successfully invade Hawaii
Exactly my thoughts. I will watch this video soon and then check if it changed my mind
@@marcneef795 I think they'd have been more likely to move to isolate Australia, and go after India.
@@fembotheather3785 Yes they say it in the video themselfes. Only the title is a bit clickbaity.
Invade yes, hold the line no.
They would have had trouble invading midway itself let alone Hawaii
Looking forward to your Undone version of the attack on Pearl Harbor. What if the Japanese fleet is detected before 12/7? What if the radar operators realize those are not B17’s to the North. If the alarm had been raised in time, how would the Hawaiian defenses have fared? All the fighters lined up in rows to be destroyed on the ground are instead scrambled to meet the Japanese in the air? Great work.
And don't forget that the Enterprise was nearby, and the Lexington and Yorktown weren't too far away either
I highly recommend reading the book Shattered Sword by Jonathan Parshall and Anthony Tully. It’s an in depth look at the Japanese Navy through journals and interviews on the Battle of Midway. In it, they discuss the pacific strategy.
I have the book on my bookcase!
I read it twice
Excellent discussion. Earned a sub!
41:48 Yak and La fighters, and Il-2 are great examples. There is countless variants of those ac. When Soviets got more and more lend lease aluminium, part by part the wooden parts were replaced by metal.
Japan will have two or three more months of superiority, America was building one carrier a week, America economy was 20 times the Japanese economy.
Parshall talks I listened
I see the Jon Parschall wallpaper I'm used to from other TH-cam videos.
@@kemarisite same here. All that was missing was a looney shirt.
I am guessing you have read "Shattered Sword". A great read.
Parshall writes, I read. His pic on the thumbnail got me here.
@@spikespa5208 yep. I'm looking forward to his book on 1942.
Great video! Thanks!
So so amazing. Thanks
Any morning with Jon Parshall’s wallpaper is a good morning!
Great and interesting discussion and insights.
This TH-cam channel is 🔥
very interesting analysis.
Great video. Just subscribed.
What a fantastic video!
If you can do Napoléon vs Wellington and Blucher at The Battle of waterloo make sure your experts are thoroughly read up. I don't want to hear that Bonny waited for the ground to dry up when his cannons couldn't be dragged across muddy wet fields quick enough
Sarah Paine’s The Wars for Asia gives a good account of Japanese thinking that systemically misunderstood how its own harsh actions brought down surprising wrath from the foe it expected to bargain with.
Thanks for the recommendation! Just a couple of months ago I finished a book that advertised "from the Japanese leadership position", because I wanted to learn more about their end-game. How did they think it was going to turn out? Frankly I was disappointed in the book. Whatever the high command was "thinking", what were they saying? Did they send serious diplomatic missions to the U.S. about ceasing hostilities and establishing detente?
After centuries of Western colonization Asian countries would have welcomed a powerful Japan. The Japanese, instead, became even worse oppressors. In a way China is repeating that mistake today.
Great guest and interesting topic. Would love to see an episode about the battle of jutland or the the battle of the Marne in the beginning of WW1
It's coming!
Wonderful commentary!
Great stuff
I liked this video's informative content. The alt-history discussions can be more revealing than the discussion of the actual events.
I was amused by Jon Parshall's "Americanisms" though. I wonder if the other two British hosts understood slangs like "get out of Dodge". (Yes, I'm American too, but the two hosts were not).
I don't know if (having watched to34:50) if you bring it up but you skip the idea of the battle without the yorktown (?) the one they quickly repaired. what would have happened if they didnt have it and they went to the battle with only the 2 carriers. You do mention they were willing to do it with only the 2.
Great channel!
I always wondered about Midway, how the battle was won by a thread, however I do believe in the inevitability of the US vistory and the use of the Atomic Bomb. Great show gentlemen, I love alternate history!
Great discussion
GREAT HISTORY lesson. Thanks
Midway is interesting. Japan really had a very realistic chance of winning. Just a few cards dealt with a slight change. Great episode to do.
When the one Japanese search 🔦 plane was delayed 4 June why didn’t Nagumo just dispatch another? He had over 200 so why not plug that gap instead of waiting a crucial 30+ minutes?
Japanese procedure was to use the cruisers' float planes for search, without using any of the carrier planes. I recall an exception or two but basically that was the accepted method. So the fact that there were a couple hundred planes theoretically available for search didn't matter.
very interesting!
I have always loved these "What ifs of history!"
Superb show.
Yall make great videos
Please do some of the great battles of WW1. 1918 Spring Offensive, Brusilov Offensive, Gallipoli, etc. WW1 is way more strategically interesting from a what if scenario.
What a great idea for a YT channel, History Undone!
These are superb
Despite the advantage of intelligence, Midway was a near run thing. The US could have easily lost....
Bold! Daring! Remember though that Nimitz (who was in charge of fleet personnel in Washington before being sent out to the Pacific) KNEW about the massive buildup of the US fleet coming in the next 6-9 months. He could afford to take the chance of this fleeting opportunity.
"Easily lost"? Hardly. The US had all the important advantages on its side.
1. They knew they were coming and where.
2. The US had a large advantage in fleet attack aircraft.
3. The Japanese were seriously hindered by the expenditure of fuel to get them to Midway with no ability to refuel and thus limited ability to maneuver.
4. The US had superior technology for long-range reconnaissance in the Cataline PBYs.
5. The US had radar while the Japanese did not.
6. The US navy can pick its optimum time to strike.
@@colinhunt4057 There was an early computer game involving the Battle of Midway. A friend of mine played it as a kid; he said it was almost impossible to win as the US. It was a miraculous victory. The pilots who ultimately hit the carriers were lucky to even find the Japanese fleet. Japan had the superior aircraft. The US lost many pilots because of inferior planes. The one Japanese reconnaissance plane who could have spotted the US fleet earlier had mechanical problems. It was pure luck that American fighters and bombers came into the carrier attack piecemeal and brought the Japanese air cover down to the deck, and they couldn't make it back to attack the bombers who finally were successful. Many US bombs missed. Many US torpedoes were duds. The Japanese overly complicated their attack plan and split up their fleet into 4 distinct groups, diluting their effectiveness and failing to protect their carriers. The US got very lucky.
@@tommonk7651 Computer games have nothing to do with real life and are evidence of nothing. None of this refutes anything I stated.
Those interested in a bit of history on RA Dr Chris Parry, watch the video 'BBC Sailor 06of12 1. Officer Territory'. from 1977 when he was a young sub Lieutenant. Very interesting look back in time.
great video. Thanks
America "Time to build an aircraftcarrier and five battleships per week, how fast can you produce them Japan?"
Japan "Did you just say a week?!"
Given the effort at Pearl Harbor to repair/refloat the battleships,there are lot of salvage/ repair assets available to expedite repairs on Yorktown.
25:48 must have taken a lot of restraint or creative editing to not have Parshal disspell that Torpedobomber story. Something he did in other Videos
Great video
As an American, I wish to commend the two Brits in this episode for persuading Dr. Parshall to speculate more broadly than has been his wont about the possibilities if things had gone differently. In general, Parshall has been reluctant to concede that the Americans could have fared far worse if things had unfolded differently. Thanks for loosening him up, and I daresay that Parshall probably appreciates it in retrospect.
Please never change your wallpaper Jon.
No mention of the Doolittle Raid. Would the Japanese have bothered with Midway if not for the Raid? I think they would have been involved consolidating their recent acquisitions instead of expanding their defense perimeter to the east.
It is probably worthy of a few mentions. It was a major catalyst for the operation.
I disagree. If the Japanese held midway, it would have isolated the supply lines to Australia. That is why they attempted Midway.
@@duaneaikins4621 Midway is nowhere near to the supply lines. And it's too isolated to support logistically. There's not even natural fresh water.
Doolittle was not a motivator for Yamamoto and the Combined Fleet staff. The Midway plan had already been conceived and put together beforehand. It was already in the stages of being proposed "up the chain" in Tokyo, and was likely to be approved in any case. What Doolittle DID do, I think, was to help neutralize whatever objections remained elsewhere in the IJN (even Yamamoto had a boss, after all), and even more importantly, the skeptical and grudging Army. The Navy-vs-Army divide in senior Japanese decision-making is, I think, often glossed over in these types of discussions.
@@cragnamorra TY for the reply. It was comprehensive and informative. I was aware of the conflict between the IJN and the IJA but was not aware that Midway was in the mill prior to Doolittle.
Churchill was in Washington about July or so when he got the news about Tobruk. FDR asked "what can we do to help" Don't think FDR asks that question if the Japanese won at Midway.
Not only does he not ask that question. He is going to have to send more attention to supporting the campaign in the Aleutians.
Does anyone know which IJN Destroyer McCluskey's squadron stumbled upon and followed to the IJN fleet?
IJN Arashi
My sense whether Admiral Spruance or Fletcher was in charge both would have decided to retreat had the Battle of Midway had gone south. They had Admiral Nimitz instructions.
I've seen videos and read essays concerning this subject, and I find their arguments less than convincing.
Japan did not have the logistical capability to consistently resupply outposts at the edges of territory they historically did control- and that was with minimal interdiction by Allied forces. Had the US lost the sea battle at Midway and Japan was able to invade and conquer Midway, they would have had a very small island outpost another several hundred miles east of Guam. However many troops deployed there would have needed food. The planes would have needed gas and ordinance. This would have had to be delivered several thousand miles from their home islands or about a thousand miles from their advanced bases at Rabaul and Truk. A handful of submarines could have made resupply VERY difficult. And an invasion of Hawaii would have magnified exponentially the difficulty Japan would have experienced invading and holding Midway.
I once interviewed the guy up at Nebraska Avenue who kept all those intercepts. I asked him if I could see the intercept of the Japanese message about AF having a fresh water problem. He looked at me and smiled, then shook his head. I asked why, since everything else was available. He admitted they didn't have it! I asked if it had been somehow lost or if the story was cover and deception. Shook his head. No idea.
With a little more preparation or luck, could the Saratoga have arrived in time to participate?
Saratoga arrives in Pearl Harbor like on the 6th. And had to refuel and rearm there. It wouldn't have reached Midway till the 9th. They wound up transporting planes to both Hornet and Enterprise. Some of her aircraft also go to reinforcing Midway.
6:25 you need to figure out the correct way up for aircraft ...
10:30 That's an unusual Nimitz photo, in profile. I don't think have seen that one before. Kinda casts a bit different aspect of his appearance. Nice inclusion.
Part of a film about when FDR visited Pearl Harbor in 1944. It's somewhere on TH-cam, heh.
I've read from a interview that McCluskey was going to go in the direction of the destroyer anyway. Seeing it just confirmed his decision to continue the search in that direction.
Low on fuel, he probably would not have gone far enough to see the Japanese fleet.
@@johnpombrio he stated he was going to keep going regardless of fuel. He was determined to find the Japanese carriers. I believe that he would have done it.
Great channel. Would love a discussion on if Confederate strategy, in the spring of 1863 after Lee's victory at Chancellorsville, had of focused on the western theater, staying on the defensive in the east and reinforcing the west against the offensive moves of Grant. Basically I'm referencing the famous Confederate White House meeting of Davis, his cabinet, and Lee where the decision was made to focus east and invade Pennsylvania over the objections of Postmaster Reagan. What is the likely outcome if a large segment of the Army of Northern Virginia (ANV) had been sent to deal with Grant? A fascinating scenario is, what if Jackson had not have died after Chancellorsville? What if Lee had assigned Jackson and his ANV corps west to deal with Grant. What if Lee himself headed west? Could Grant have been defeated outside of Vicksburg? If so, what would be been the implications?
Excellent presentation
Great job, fascinating discussion on the Battle of Midway. You folks have to do the Battle of Stalingrad.
This was a pivotal battle in WW2, and initiated the downfall of the Third Reich.
God idea. What if Hitler had left the operations in Russia to the genereals. Had the generals entering the Caucusus had full authority over their forces, could they have reached the oilfields, or at least denied them to the Soviets?
27:00 😂 they weren't trying to take and hold.... but ok
40:00 Those shipments of lend lease were shipped right through Japanese Navy backyard. Ships were Soviet flagged.
Of course with the invasion of the Aleutian Islands; the backyard becomes a little bigger.
If the USN had not broken the IJN code, would the IJN have shown up at Midway with 6 carriers as planned, and the USN not been in place to defend Miday?
An important note the American should have made. Yorktown was a direct sister to Enterprise so looked very much a like. Hornet was also laid out similarly so it would have been easy to mistake them. I'd hope he'd have mentioned that
i realize that this is three months after the initial presentation, but none of these commentators mentioned the fact that the Japanese did capture American territory in Alaska during this campaign. While Nimitz was willing to write off Attu and Kiska in the short term. The potential of Alaska as a launching pad for both sides was not lost. For example, look at the construction of the Alcan highway as a potential source of supplies for either Alaskan defense or a launching pad for offensive operations.
Thank you for the discussion. Love Johnathan Parshall's presentation. The alternatives, there are thousands of possibilities. Within two years America will have 2x-3x the fleet the Japanese have
Spruance had better intel. And no altitude was not what made the CAP not effective...lack of fighter direction was the reason for 10:25 DB strike
Same difference? If there was no one seeing the dive bombers at Angels 20, no one would have directed them to ATTEMPT to attack (climb up and/or attack when diving). Japan had ship board radar, just not on their carriers yet.
Shgould the IJN played a waiting game (much less prestige and military-polictico influence of course especially with 'bidding' for resources), beefed up their aviation on the outlying islands together with preserving their precious naval-aviation (carriers) and targeted the USs supply chain and the immediate seas around the Northen coastline of Australia with their subs, the USM island-hopping strategy would have taken years and at a much higher cost. Without the Manhatten Project, Japan would have remained very powerful.
If the Japanese had won at Midway, the US would still have shown up off the coast of Japan in 1945 with 100 carriers, and would have erased whatever resistance the Japanese could have offered.
It wouldn't have been 1945. The US would have needed another year or two at least to recover and fight back thru the Pacific.
I'd always thought that for the Japanese the Aleutian campaign was just to draw the attention away from Midway. The Japanese never committed an major forces there and abandoned it fairly quickly.
I've read that a few times but it makes no sense to me. If your operational goal is to draw the enemy fleet into a major action, why launch a diversion at all? The Japanese *wanted* the US to give battle. A diversion, if successful, reduced the odds of that happening. It also required the Japanese to divide their own forces, giving them IIRC one less carrier for Midway itself.