Book Your Real Estate Consultation Here: 📆 calendly.com/thevancouverlife _________________________________ Inflation has cooled down, with a rise of just 1.6% in September, significantly lower than August’s 2.0%. Outside of the COVID-era disruptions, this marks the lowest inflation figure in 5.5 years, dating back to February 2019. Back then, the overnight rate was 1.75%, 2.5 basis points lower than today’s rate. The drop in shelter costs, which dipped from 5.3% to 5.0%, contributed to this inflation slowdown. However, the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measure, which excludes volatile components, remained steady at 2.3%. What’s striking is that this inflation print came in below market expectations of 1.8%, significantly reshaping interest rate forecasts. Analysts are now predicting a 70% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut at the BoC’s meeting on Wednesday, with a further 25 bps reduction anticipated for December. If this scenario unfolds, the overnight rate could end 2024 at 3.5%, and markets expect it to drop to 2.5% by October 2025. Such a drastic forecast has led many mortgage brokers to advise clients to consider variable-rate mortgages, anticipating a steady decline in rates over the coming year. At present, the BoC’s overnight rate stands at 4.25%, about 150-200 basis points above what is considered neutral. Given the state of inflation and a rising unemployment rate, there seems to be little reason for the BoC to delay a rate cut on Wednesday. This could also alleviate some of the pressure on Canada’s bond market which has been feeling the strain from high rates, though the Canadian dollar will be the sacrificial lamb. Housing starts in Canada have taken a significant hit, dropping 16% year-over-year (y/y). In Vancouver, this trend is even more pronounced, with a 23% decline in year-to-date housing starts. Toronto fares even worse, with condo starts down by 70% y/y, marking a three-year low. With a rolling 12-month condo pre-sale figure of just 6,000 units-an all-time low-developers are pulling back hard on new construction. With construction costs still high and no immediate relief in sight, this reduction in supply is likely to exacerbate Canada’s already tight housing market in the long term. Another worrying trend is the increasing number of business closures. Last month, Canada saw a 1% drop in active businesses, the largest month-over-month (m/m) decline since the pandemic. The number of active businesses fell from 938,000 to 929,000, with construction companies leading the exodus-643 construction businesses shut down in September alone. This points to a broader economic slowdown, particularly in the housing sector, which is reliant on steady construction activity. New business openings also hit a four-year low, signaling reduced optimism among entrepreneurs. All eyes are now on the BoC’s rate decision on Wednesday. With inflation easing and housing construction slowing dramatically, a rate cut seems increasingly likely. However, businesses are still struggling, and new policies may be needed to stimulate growth and prevent further economic downturns. The BoC’s decision will set the tone for the remainder of 2024, and possibly 2025, as Canada navigates these uncertain times.
Time to do a video about how wrong the outlooks have been. Time to open the eyes real big it’s ugly and going to be so much worse than now. I think deep down you know it now
Each .25 cut saving me hundreds, just like 2 years ago when each .25 rise cost me hundreds. Couldn't pass on the increases then, so I bought out old tenants. Do you think I'm going to pass on the savings now?? 😀
The number of homes is not taken into account all those empty homes. Recently completed new homes, overpriced and sits empty but not registered as home available. And more to come.
There are dozens of new home sitting and collecting cobwebs near where I live. There are now builders moving into these unsold homes these guys are getting crushed. I smell foreclosures coming by the bucketloads
@@DTrent-uy1wl as always, government is blinded by these empty homes. Municipals can easily identify what you’ve just done and sent the builders an empty home tax bill. Maybe then, the builders will be forced to lower the price, GST removed by Feds and then we can finally realize affordable homes is already right here right now.
after 11 months and thousands in drawings, my local city govt came back telling me that they'd need to take 45sq feet of my lot for an alley easement. That was when I took the redevelopment sign down and put in an illegal basement suite. Now it's only rented to transient renters....
@@DummMoney-rr1fi Imagine if the city tendered out a contract to private engineering firms for the permitting process and they get paid based on the number of permits they approve. I wonder how fast they would go...
Real estate is not cool thing to do anymore. Nobody is talking about it- they’re only complaining and bitching about it. I don’t blame them this is a toxic asset that is already starting to devastate families. Very very bad days are now here
1.6% inflation😂😂😂😂 riiiight. The government cant even be bothered to give a semi believable number anymore. Just gonna strip oit those "volatile categories" like food, rent, electricity, etc. Nothing essential
while kidnapping situation likely do not applies to most SG in JB it does tells the crime situation in JB is not low. If you can have quite a few kidnapping cases in JB, there is likely a lot more cases in robbery, rape, theft etc to be ocncern.
So much criticism and blame on speculators for the high cost of real estate these days - well what about the government(s)? They are becoming more and more dependent on the taxes and fees that they are collecting for the transfer of real estate and the additional development costs they have been implementing. They must be panicking at the stall in the market.
Great content as usual. But Ryan's Camera keeps shaking and it made it very uncomfortable to watch his segments. Hope it will get fix on your next video.
Book Your Real Estate Consultation Here:
📆 calendly.com/thevancouverlife
_________________________________
Inflation has cooled down, with a rise of just 1.6% in September, significantly lower than August’s 2.0%. Outside of the COVID-era disruptions, this marks the lowest inflation figure in 5.5 years, dating back to February 2019. Back then, the overnight rate was 1.75%, 2.5 basis points lower than today’s rate. The drop in shelter costs, which dipped from 5.3% to 5.0%, contributed to this inflation slowdown. However, the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measure, which excludes volatile components, remained steady at 2.3%.
What’s striking is that this inflation print came in below market expectations of 1.8%, significantly reshaping interest rate forecasts. Analysts are now predicting a 70% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut at the BoC’s meeting on Wednesday, with a further 25 bps reduction anticipated for December. If this scenario unfolds, the overnight rate could end 2024 at 3.5%, and markets expect it to drop to 2.5% by October 2025. Such a drastic forecast has led many mortgage brokers to advise clients to consider variable-rate mortgages, anticipating a steady decline in rates over the coming year.
At present, the BoC’s overnight rate stands at 4.25%, about 150-200 basis points above what is considered neutral. Given the state of inflation and a rising unemployment rate, there seems to be little reason for the BoC to delay a rate cut on Wednesday. This could also alleviate some of the pressure on Canada’s bond market which has been feeling the strain from high rates, though the Canadian dollar will be the sacrificial lamb.
Housing starts in Canada have taken a significant hit, dropping 16% year-over-year (y/y). In Vancouver, this trend is even more pronounced, with a 23% decline in year-to-date housing starts. Toronto fares even worse, with condo starts down by 70% y/y, marking a three-year low. With a rolling 12-month condo pre-sale figure of just 6,000 units-an all-time low-developers are pulling back hard on new construction. With construction costs still high and no immediate relief in sight, this reduction in supply is likely to exacerbate Canada’s already tight housing market in the long term.
Another worrying trend is the increasing number of business closures. Last month, Canada saw a 1% drop in active businesses, the largest month-over-month (m/m) decline since the pandemic. The number of active businesses fell from 938,000 to 929,000, with construction companies leading the exodus-643 construction businesses shut down in September alone. This points to a broader economic slowdown, particularly in the housing sector, which is reliant on steady construction activity. New business openings also hit a four-year low, signaling reduced optimism among entrepreneurs.
All eyes are now on the BoC’s rate decision on Wednesday. With inflation easing and housing construction slowing dramatically, a rate cut seems increasingly likely. However, businesses are still struggling, and new policies may be needed to stimulate growth and prevent further economic downturns. The BoC’s decision will set the tone for the remainder of 2024, and possibly 2025, as Canada navigates these uncertain times.
Time to do a video about how wrong the outlooks have been. Time to open the eyes real big it’s ugly and going to be so much worse than now. I think deep down you know it now
There’s a massive housing supply. It’s just in the wrong price range. It’s like having a Ferrari for sale when people need a Hyundai.
@@JimMason-y5t or an average looking gal when high maintenance young beautiful women are single
Should be 0.75 cut
Since we had high inflation for the past few years we need deflation to bring prices back down to make up for the excess inflation
Please be careful- I’ve been telling these two jokers about a deflation collapse for two year. Cite my work to avoid the plagiarism
Is it be too much to ask 75 bsp cut?
Each .25 cut saving me hundreds, just like 2 years ago when each .25 rise cost me hundreds. Couldn't pass on the increases then, so I bought out old tenants. Do you think I'm going to pass on the savings now?? 😀
The number of homes is not taken into account all those empty homes. Recently completed new homes, overpriced and sits empty but not registered as home available. And more to come.
There are dozens of new home sitting and collecting cobwebs near where I live. There are now builders moving into these unsold homes these guys are getting crushed. I smell foreclosures coming by the bucketloads
@@DTrent-uy1wl as always, government is blinded by these empty homes. Municipals can easily identify what you’ve just done and sent the builders an empty home tax bill. Maybe then, the builders will be forced to lower the price, GST removed by Feds and then we can finally realize affordable homes is already right here right now.
Waiting 2 years for building permits may be something to look into!!
after 11 months and thousands in drawings, my local city govt came back telling me that they'd need to take 45sq feet of my lot for an alley easement. That was when I took the redevelopment sign down and put in an illegal basement suite. Now it's only rented to transient renters....
@@DummMoney-rr1fi Imagine if the city tendered out a contract to private engineering firms for the permitting process and they get paid based on the number of permits they approve. I wonder how fast they would go...
OMG, a smart idea!
High interest rates is killing the construction industry
Real estate is not cool thing to do anymore. Nobody is talking about it- they’re only complaining and bitching about it. I don’t blame them this is a toxic asset that is already starting to devastate families. Very very bad days are now here
1.6% inflation😂😂😂😂 riiiight.
The government cant even be bothered to give a semi believable number anymore. Just gonna strip oit those "volatile categories" like food, rent, electricity, etc. Nothing essential
Great stuff guys.
Thanks for tuning in!
while kidnapping situation likely do not applies to most SG in JB it does tells the crime situation in JB is not low. If you can have quite a few kidnapping cases in JB, there is likely a lot more cases in robbery, rape, theft etc to be ocncern.
I'm a betting man, I want to put $1.00 to 1 full %.😂
Food up 20%, housing 20%, Gas up , ..... Bank of Canada should raise, not cut interest rate.
So much criticism and blame on speculators for the high cost of real estate these days - well what about the government(s)? They are becoming more and more dependent on the taxes and fees that they are collecting for the transfer of real estate and the additional development costs they have been implementing. They must be panicking at the stall in the market.
Started my business April 2020 and I want to expand but housing staff is the problem
What kind of business did you start?
Brace for $3.00 Gas by Christmas & New Year's Eve!
I can’t wait
The Canadian dollar is crashing…
So is real estate
What about Victoria?
It's a lefty haven, it's rotting in bad policy and attracted the top green dog, say no more
Victoria is in very big trouble- prices are beginning to fall hard and inventory is skyrocketing
Great content as usual. But Ryan's Camera keeps shaking and it made it very uncomfortable to watch his segments. Hope it will get fix on your next video.
Yes we didn't notice this until after the fact. It'll be fixed on next weeks episode!
The real question is why it was shaking?
When is Vince Taylor coming back on show?
They will crash